Iron Ore & Steel

Vale produced 88.35 million metric tons of iron ore in Q3, below the 91.64 Mt consensus and down 6% YoY, due to lower run-of-mine availability at Serra Norte in northern Brazil. Sales rose slightly YoY while realized prices fell 10% to $85.10/t amid higher diesel, bunker and freight costs. The miss comes as global supply pressure weighs on prices and Chinese demand stays muted. Read →

Singapore iron ore futures slipped near $91/t on Friday, on track for the lowest October month-end close since 2022 after losing over 2% in the month. Ample global shipments and Chinese port stockpiles up 15% YoY capped buying as steel mills face thin margins and seasonal demand weakness. Prices have now declined in seven of the last eight months since the May peak above $111/t. Read →

The most-traded DCE I2701 contract closed at 682 yuan/mt, up 1.49%, with Qingdao spot prices rising 5-8 yuan/mt as 10-port inventories fell 490,000 mt WoW on coarse fines destocking. Brazil-to-China freight rose $0.5/mt to $34.17/mt, adding landed-cost support while hot-metal output rebounded slightly from maintenance restarts. Mills bought only as needed and spot trade stayed thin amid looming Hebei environmental curbs. Read →

Fortescue executives said any deal with China’s state buyer CMRG must safeguard both the company’s and Australia’s long-term interests and that it will not cave to unfavorable demands. The miner remains the only major without a multiyear contract after Rio Tinto settled, leaving Fortescue exposed to potential year-end production adjustments if talks drag. SGX 61% Fe prices sat near $90/t after the Rio resolution removed some supply-risk premium. Read →

Average imported iron ore margin narrowed to 1.03 yuan/mt from 9.79 yuan/mt as port spot prices slumped. 10-port stocks stood at 104.65 Mt on Oct 22 (down 490 kt WoW) with fines destocking while hot metal output edged up 6.4 kt to 2.3584 Mt/day; mills bought as-needed amid losses, futures and spot both weakened. Read →

DCE I2701 closed at 664 yuan/mt, down 1.12%; Qingdao port spots fell 5 yuan/mt. Global shipments rose 2.83% WoW to 33.45 Mt and China arrivals jumped 12.47% to 27.61 Mt in week to Oct 23; hot metal output dipped on maintenance to 1.753 Mt/day with further cuts expected, port stocks face renewed build pressure as mills limit purchases. Read →

SMM construction steel social inventory fell 130.5 kt WoW (-3.07%) to 4.1246 Mt as of Oct 29, with east China accelerating destocking while central/southwest regions slowed or stabilized. Long-process output rose as some mills resumed lines amid narrower flat-vs-long profitability gap; EAF rates fell in southwest on output curbs, demand softened with year-end deleveraging. Read →

SGX benchmark futures fell as much as 1.4% to $89.25/t, the lowest intraday since September 2024; DCE prices also hit two-year lows. Seasonally weak Chinese steel consumption and expected 18Mt higher shipments from the four major miners plus Simandou ramp-up are pressuring prices, with mills buying hand-to-mouth amid high port stocks. Read →

SGX futures traded down 1.2% at $89.40/t and DCE most-traded contract fell 1.19% to 662 yuan/t on Oct 27. Thin mill margins, high Chinese port stocks and rising Q4 supply from BHP, Rio Tinto and Simandou keep buying cautious despite the IMF 62% Fe benchmark rising 0.82% to 100.44. Read →

Fortescue reported Q1 FY27 shipments of 46.8Mt but sales of only 42.9Mt due to ongoing CMRG talks, creating a 3.9Mt gap and building inventories. The miner said operations and full-year 197-207Mt guidance could face adjustments if no deal is reached by Dec 31, while Rio Tinto has already agreed terms with the state buyer. Read →

SGX iron ore futures fell as much as 1.4% to $89.25/t, the lowest intraday level since September 2024, with DCE contracts also at multi-year lows. Weak Chinese steel mill profitability, hand-to-mouth buying amid high port stocks, and expected 18Mt higher shipments from major miners plus Simandou ramp-up drove the decline. Prices are seen staying soft through November with further downside risk to $85-86/t. Read →

Fortescue mined 62.7Mt iron ore in the September quarter, up 4% YoY, but shipments dropped 6% YoY and 11% QoQ to 46.8Mt while sales lagged shipments by 3.9Mt due to CMRG negotiations. The company expects inventories to rise another 4-5Mt in October and warned operations could face adjustments if talks drag past year-end, though it kept full-year shipment guidance at 197-207Mt. Read →

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 670/t near four-year lows as blast furnace operating rates at 247 Chinese mills hit 80%, down 4.3% YoY, reflecting thin profitability. Elevated port arrivals and global shipments added supply pressure while a new CMRG-Rio Tinto supply agreement eased some availability concerns but did little to lift demand sentiment. Read →

DCE most-traded iron ore contract ticked down 0.07% to 670.5 CNY/t while SGX November contract edged up 0.07% to $90.60/t. Average daily hot metal output, a direct gauge of blast-furnace iron ore demand, fell 0.5% week-on-week to 2.32 million tonnes, the lowest since late March per Mysteel data. Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures on the Shanghai exchange also slipped, reflecting persistently weak steelmaker profitability and sluggish downstream demand despite stimulus hopes. Read →

September iron ore imports reached 109.82 Mt, up 1.2% month-on-month, with year-to-date arrivals at 954.97 Mt. Port inventories monitored by SteelHome climbed to 152.23 Mt in the week to Oct 23, up 14% year-on-year, as lower prices around $90.60/t on SGX boosted import appetite but flows largely rebuilt stockpiles rather than lifting steel output. CMRG's push for greater pricing control creates ongoing tension with Australian suppliers Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue. Read →

Fortescue warned operations could be affected, potentially including production adjustments, if negotiations with CMRG are not concluded by calendar year-end. September-quarter sales of 42.9 Mt lagged shipments of 46.8 Mt due to the standoff and maintenance, with inventories expected to rise another 4-5 Mt in October. The company maintained its FY2027 shipment guidance of 197-207 Mt but noted the figures are subject to the outcome of talks. Read →

China Mineral Resources Group reached a multiyear agreement with Rio Tinto covering November 2026 to May 2028. The deal follows earlier instructions to mills to pause certain Rio purchases during talks and adds to CMRG contracts with other producers. It reduces near-term supply disruption risks for Chinese steelmakers while highlighting CMRG’s growing role in centralizing procurement. Read →

Fortescue shipped 46.8 Mt of iron ore in Q1 FY27 but sold only 42.9 Mt due to ongoing CMRG negotiations, with inventories set to rise another 4-5 Mt in October. The miner maintained full-year shipment guidance of 197-207 Mt and C1 cost targets but warned operations could face adjustments if no deal is reached by year-end. Maintenance shutdowns also weighed on volumes and lifted unit costs 13% QoQ. Read →

The most-traded DCE iron ore contract closed at 669 yuan/mt, down 1.83%, with Qingdao port spot prices falling 9-15 yuan/mt on average. Hot metal output edged up slightly to 2.3584 Mt/day while 10-port inventories stood at 104.65 Mt; mills bought on a need-only basis amid losses. Seaborne supply remains ample, capping upside despite modest demand improvement. Read →

Inventories of imported iron ore at China’s 47 major ports slipped to 172.8 million tonnes as of October 22, down 0.5% week-on-week after five weeks of builds. Fines stocks declined notably while lumps rose; the total remains 13.1% above year-ago levels. Lower arrivals and modest hot metal gains provided limited support as mills continued just-in-time purchasing. Read →

Fortescue warned investors that unresolved negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group could force production adjustments at its Pilbara mines by year-end. Shipments exceeded sales by 3.9 million tonnes in the September quarter due to delayed shipments. The standoff highlights Beijing's leverage over Australian miners supplying China's steel mills. Read →

Fortescue reported 46.8 million tonnes of iron ore shipments in Q1 FY27, down 6% year-on-year, with sales at 42.9 million tonnes. Maintenance and CMRG negotiations caused the gap. The company held FY27 guidance of 197-207 million tonnes but flagged risks if talks drag on. Read →

SGX and DCE iron ore futures ended little changed as rising freight rates and potential supply disruptions offset weak China demand. Capesize earnings jumped, supporting a modest technical rebound amid persistent port inventory builds. Read →

35 major Chinese ports held 148.30 Mt of imported iron ore as of Oct 16, up 2.85 Mt week-on-week. Daily outbound volume fell 50,000 Mt to 3.185 Mt. Steel mills posted losses and bought only rigid volumes; port stocks expected to keep building with iron ore prices to trade soft in narrow range. Read →

SGX contract fell 0.87% to $90.45/mt and DCE I2701 dropped 1.61% to 671.5 yuan/mt over the week. Hot metal output stabilized near 2.352 Mt/day after prior declines. 35-port stocks rose 2.85 Mt post-holiday while maintenance losses expanded more slowly; BF rebar margins improved 105 yuan/mt after coke cuts but restocking stayed absent. Read →

DCE most-traded iron ore contract closed at 672.5 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Seaborne 61% and 65% indices rose to about USD 89.40 and 107.75/dmt. Qingdao port spot prices for major brands increased 2 yuan/wmt while Carajas Fines fell 8 yuan; domestic composite index declined. Import margins recovered slightly to 6.01 yuan/mt as freight rates fell, but buying remains needs-based with port stocks building and hot metal output steadying near lows. Read →

BHP WAIO produced 64.3 Mt (BHP share) in Q1 FY27, up 4% YoY on 100% basis of 71.9 Mt, with records at mine and port despite maintenance including Car Dumper 4 rebuild. Iron ore realised price averaged US$76.27/wmt, down 9% YoY. Full-year FY27 iron ore guidance unchanged at 260-272 Mt (BHP share) or 286-298 Mt (100% basis) for WAIO; Samarco also steady. Copper output fell due to grades and maintenance. Read →

Most active DCE iron ore January 2027 contract rose 1.26% to close at 682.5 yuan per tonne. Gains followed better-than-expected China Q3 GDP growth of 4.5% and higher steel output, though underlying demand fundamentals remain weak with property sector pressure and elevated port inventories limiting upside. Read →

Imported iron ore inventories at 47 major Chinese ports reached 173.7 million tonnes as of October 15, up 0.3% week-on-week and 15% year-on-year. Stocks built for the fifth straight week as arrivals outpaced absorption amid weak mill profitability and as-needed purchasing, adding to supply pressure on prices. Read →

The Australian government approved Posco Holdings' A$4.4 billion project at Port Hedland to produce about 2 million tons of low-emissions iron annually using natural gas initially. The plant targets first output in 2031 and requires final investment decision from partners including Marubeni and China Steel. It supports Australia's push to add value to iron ore exports while advancing steel decarbonization. Read →

Dalian iron ore futures rose 0.22% to 673.5 yuan per ton and SGX November contract gained 0.56% to $90.35 per ton after hitting two-year lows. Mysteel data showed profitable Chinese steel mills rising to 8% from 6.9% a week earlier, slowing hot metal output declines and spurring dip buying. Port inventories continued building while downside risks from low mill profitability persist. Read →

China exported 10.49 million tonnes of finished steel in September, up 0.26% year-on-year per GACC data released October 14. Exports provide an outlet for mills facing weak domestic demand from the property slump. Rebar and HRC prices continued weakening in the week to October 16 amid falling coke costs. Read →

National Bureau of Statistics data showed China's crude steel production at 724.77 million tonnes for the first nine months, down 2.9% year-on-year. The decline reflects persistent weakness in property and infrastructure demand pressuring blast furnace utilization and hot metal output. CISA member mills saw daily output recover modestly in early October. Read →

Iron ore futures on Dalian rose 0.22% to 673.5 yuan/t and SGX November contract gained 0.56% to $90.35/t after hitting lows Thursday. The rebound followed Mysteel data showing 8% of Chinese steelmakers profitable on Oct 15 versus 6.9% prior week, slowing hot metal output declines and signaling restocking needs. Port inventories continued building, capping gains. Read →

SGX iron ore futures fell as much as 0.8% to $89.75/t, the weakest since September 2024, on soft Chinese steel demand from the property slump and robust global supply including Simandou ramp-up. Prices have dropped about 15% this year as mills face thin margins and hot metal output risks further cuts. Read →

Rio Tinto reported Q3 global iron ore sales of 90.8 Mt, up 3% YoY, with Pilbara shipments at 85.7 Mt and Simandou at an annualized 10 Mtpa run-rate. The company kept full-year sales guidance unchanged at 343-366 Mt despite China finished steel consumption falling 4% QoQ and benchmark prices averaging lower. Read →

Rio Tinto lifted Q3 global iron ore sales 3% YoY to 90.8 Mt supported by Pilbara and Simandou progress, with the Guinea project hitting 10 Mtpa annualized. China steel consumption fell 4% QoQ while exports rose, and the firm maintained 2026 guidance amid lower benchmark prices and higher freight costs. Read →

DCE January iron ore contract closed down 1.1% at 677 yuan per tonne; SGX November contract fell 0.64% to US$90.35 per tonne. Chinese port iron ore stocks rose 0.19% to 152.66 million tonnes. Lower freight rates and rising blast-furnace maintenance after the holiday cut near-term demand support. Read →

DCE most-traded I2701 contract fell 1.1% to 677 yuan/mt; Qingdao port spot prices dropped 3 yuan/mt on average. Weekly blast-furnace maintenance impact on hot metal rose to 1.9011 million mt, up 78,600 mt week-on-week. Falling freight rates further eroded cost support for iron ore. Read →

DCE most-traded contract closed at 677 yuan/mt, down 1.1%; Qingdao port spots fell 3 yuan/mt. SGX current-month contract at US$90.65/dmt. Traders reluctant to offer amid weak mill buying; port inventories remain elevated. Read →

World Steel Association revised 2026 global steel demand to flat at 1,722 Mt from prior 0.3% growth forecast. China demand now seen contracting 2.0% to 780.1 Mt due to persistent property weakness and negative infrastructure investment. India demand forecast raised to +7.9% growth. Read →

The World Steel Association revised its 2026 global steel demand forecast to essentially flat at 1,722 Mt or a 0.1% contraction, down from April's 0.3% growth expectation. China demand is now seen contracting 2% (deeper than prior view) due to persistent property weakness and soft infrastructure, with the revision almost entirely China-driven. This signals sustained pressure on iron ore and steelmaking raw materials as the key demand anchor weakens further. Read →

DCE most-traded iron ore contract rose 0.15% to 684.5 yuan/t ($102.27/t) and SGX November contract gained 0.67% to $91.2/t on expectations Chinese mills would rebuild feedstocks after National Day holiday. Gains were capped by thin post-holiday restocking so far and Q4 supply increases as miners meet targets; rebar and HRC futures were mixed. Lower coke prices narrowed some mill losses but have not yet spurred broad iron ore buying. Read →

DCE I2701 settled at 683 yuan/t, down 0.07%, with Qingdao port spot prices falling 0-2 yuan/t amid thin trading and mills buying only for immediate needs. More blast-furnace maintenance after the holiday and soft end-use demand keep buying appetite weak despite coke price cuts improving margins slightly. Iron ore demand is expected to stay low near term, leaving prices rangebound at low levels. Read →

Imported iron ore inventories at China's 47 major ports rose 0.6% from end-September to 173.2 million tonnes by October 8, marking the fourth straight weekly increase and 15.7% above year-ago levels. The build reflects holiday timing and subdued mill buying, adding to supply pressure on iron ore prices alongside high port stocks and weak steel mill profitability. Read →

DCE most-traded iron ore contract rose 0.15% to ¥684.50/t and SGX November contract gained 0.67% to $91.20/t on Monday. Gains followed expectations that more Chinese mills will rebuild feedstock stocks this week after subdued post-National Day restocking, aided by falling spot coke prices narrowing mill losses. Gains capped by Q4 supply ramp-up from miners meeting targets. Read →

Chinese steelmaker profitability remains dire with only 6.93% of mills profitable per Mysteel survey; average rebar margins -¥204/t and HRC -¥213/t. Port iron ore inventories rose 1 Mt to 173.15 Mt last week. October historically weakest month for Dalian iron ore futures with average -4.68% return since 2014, pressuring prices testing ¥683-690 support zone. Read →

Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel), listed arm of China Baowu, kept November domestic HRC and other flat-rolled list prices unchanged from October. Move signals cautious pricing amid weak post-holiday demand, rising steel inventories and lackluster end-user offtake for rebar and HRC. Chinese major steel prices remained weak overall Oct 8-10. Read →

October rebar export schedules at sampled mills reached 805,000 mt, up 230,000 mt month-on-month, including 420,000 mt steel billet exports up 50% MoM. Mills in northeast and east China boost overseas sales to ease domestic pressure from weak construction demand and high inventories. Planned October rebar output down 1.77% MoM to 6.8366 Mt. Read →

DCE most-traded iron ore contract closed down 3.12% at 682.5 yuan/mt ($101.84/t), lowest since April 2025. Only 7% of Chinese steelmakers were profitable end-September; daily hot-metal output slid to six-month low of 2.34 Mt as mills start or plan maintenance. SGX November contract hit lowest since September 2024 at $90.95/t during holiday; excess supply and falling freight added pressure. Read →

Iron ore futures headed for third straight weekly loss; SGX fell as much as 0.9% Friday to lowest since September 2024. Dalian contracts hovered near two-year lows after post-holiday resumption. Ample seaborne supply and subdued Chinese steel demand outlook weighed on prices despite trading resumption. Read →

Inventories at 47 major Chinese ports reached 173.15 Mt as of Oct 8, up 963 kt week-on-week. Fines rose 701 kt and lumps 524 kt; daily port discharge averaged 3.58 Mt. Build reflects post-holiday arrivals amid softer mill buying as hot-metal output contracts. Read →

Fortescue reported September-quarter iron ore sales about 8% below shipments due to ongoing negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group over long-term contracts and pricing. Shipments totaled 46.8 Mt, down 6% year-on-year, with maintenance also a factor. The standoff highlights Beijing's push for greater control over seaborne iron ore pricing, pressuring Australian miners' realizations and cash flows. Read →

Dalian iron ore futures dropped 1.85% to 691.5 yuan per tonne ($103.19/t), the weakest since June 2025, on the first trading day after China's National Day holiday. Weak steel mill margins, with only 6.9% profitable at end-September and daily hot metal output at a six-month low of 2.34 Mt, prompted maintenance plans and reduced ore demand. SGX November iron ore rose modestly to $92.3/t while rebar and HRC futures declined. Read →

Fortescue flagged lower iron ore sales volumes in the September quarter as tensions with China’s central purchasing agency CMRG intensified over pricing methodologies. The miner is redirecting some shipments to markets including Malaysia, India and Indonesia while 89% of its prior revenue came from China. The dispute underscores Beijing's efforts to centralize buying power and extract better terms from major Australian producers. Read →

Mysteel's survey showed Chinese blast-furnace steelmakers reduced output in the final week before the National Day holiday as more mills operated at losses. Hot metal production and capacity utilization declined further, with mills responding to thin margins by scaling back operations. This adds downward pressure on iron ore demand while port inventories continue to build. Read →

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 740 per ton near 1-year lows as Chinese steel mill profitability dropped to 51%, down 4.8 points weekly, amid elevated coke prices and seasonal demand weakness. Port inventories remain elevated near record seasonal levels at 160 million tons while seaborne supply recovers. The move pressures margins for BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue as Chinese blast-furnace output declines. Read →

Vale ADRs fell 0.49% to US$14.08 after China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported crude steel output dropped 3.7% year-on-year in August and 3.1% year-to-date. China Iron and Steel Association urged mills to curb output, reducing iron ore demand. CSN Mineração shares also fell nearly 2% on the data. Read →

Baowu and Rio Tinto completed industrial-scale trials at Zhanjiang Steel using Pilbara Blend ore in a hydrogen-based shaft furnace to produce direct reduced iron, then converted it in a basic oxygen furnace. The milestone advances lower-emissions steelmaking under their 2023 MoU and shows mid-grade Pilbara ore can support decarbonisation pathways versus traditional blast furnaces. Read →

DCE most-traded contract fell 8.5 yuan to 705 yuan/mt and Qingdao spot prices dropped 10-12 yuan/wmt. SMM noted restocking demand is largely complete with mills buying only as needed amid thin trading. High-grade premium collapsed as the 61% index fell the most, confirming the prior divergence was temporary noise. Read →

CISA data showed mill finished-steel inventories at 17.08 million mt as of Sept 20, up 5.1% from end-August and 11.7% YoY despite output restraint. September demand proved weaker than expected with no major stimulus anticipated; exports provide some cushion but HRC and rebar prices face downside risk post-holiday from coking coal and weak fundamentals. Read →

SGX September iron ore rose 4.7% to $117.70/t, its highest since June 30. DCE most-traded contract climbed 5.1% to 778 yuan/t. SMM reports 12 Chinese blast furnaces restarted as steel margins improved, lifting rebar 3.2% and hot-rolled coil 2.8% on Shanghai Futures Exchange. Read →

Global seaborne iron ore flows reached 153.5 Mt in August, flat y/y. China arrivals fell 7.7% despite 0.2% rise in flows to China. Elevated port stocks and weaker steel demand point to softer Q4 flows, with Brazil exports already down over 11% y/y. Read →

Rio Tinto marked shipment of its 8 billionth tonne of Pilbara iron ore since 1966. The milestone shipment departed Cape Lambert on the Juno Horizon bound for Nippon Steel. Rio continues studies at Rhodes Ridge for potential 100 Mtpa capacity. Read →

UBS raised long-term iron ore forecast to $93/t from $85/t, citing cost-curve support with 85 Mt of supply cash-negative at current levels. Macquarie flags Fortescue as counter-consensus trade. Iron ore historically rises in 12 of past 16 Decembers. Read →