Fertilizers

Tracking data show no fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in September or October, versus roughly 20% of global nitrogen trade pre-conflict. Sulfur prices have more than doubled above $1,000/t, pushing phosphate prices up 25-30%; Mosaic has idled operations including its South Fort Meade site. Urea has held up better thanks to higher Chinese and US exports, but the sulfur bottleneck remains acute with no equivalent workaround. Read →

Africa’s largest fertilizer trader ETG plans a 1.5-million-ton-per-year urea facility in northern Mozambique, one of the continent’s largest, fed by gas from TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project. The move responds to Iran-war supply disruptions that have elevated prices and exposed reliance on Middle East exports. A final decision awaits a feasibility study and gas-pricing talks, with output years away. Read →

DTN's latest retail survey shows UAN28 averaging $447 per ton in the third week of October, up $24/ton or 6% month-over-month, the only significant gain per DTN's 5% threshold. UAN32 rose 2% to $486/ton, potash 2% to $506/ton, anhydrous 1% to $987/ton, MAP 1% to $983/ton and DAP 1% to $939/ton; urea eased 0.1% to $674/ton. All but one product now exceed year-ago levels, with anhydrous up 18%, urea 13% and UAN28 7%, reflecting ongoing pressure from Middle East disruptions, sulfur shortages and China export curbs ahead of planting. Read →

The Iran conflict has halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, stopping roughly one-third of globally traded urea volumes plus sulfur and ammonia flows from the Gulf, including output from Qatar's large facility. Argus estimates at least 2 million metric tons of urea production lost (about 3% of annual seaborne trade) from Middle East, India, Bangladesh and Russia plant shutdowns, with nearly 1 million tons of loaded urea stranded in the Gulf. Farmers face a second price surge in four years amid low grain prices, prompting some to cut applications and risk lower 2027 yields. Read →

DTN’s latest survey of agricultural retailers showed U.S. retail fertilizer prices rose for a third consecutive week in mid-October, with UAN32 up 6% month-on-month to $486 per ton. Anhydrous ammonia reached $987/ton and UAN28 $441/ton, both up 5%, while DAP, MAP, potash and urea also edged higher; all eight tracked nutrients now exceed year-ago levels. DTN attributed the gains to supply pressure from the Strait of Hormuz conflict, China’s export restrictions, a global sulfur shortage and Nutrien’s indefinite Trinidad nitrogen shutdown. Read →

Nutrien announced it will indefinitely shut down its Point Lisas nitrogen operations in Trinidad and Tobago after a strategic review, citing ongoing natural gas supply constraints and uncertainty. The facility had been under controlled shutdown since October 2025; the permanent closure removes capacity that historically supplied ammonia and urea to North and Latin American markets. The company said the move has no impact on 2026 nitrogen sales guidance as it had already assumed zero production from the site and will grow volumes from North American assets. Read →

Mosaic executive Ben Pratt said sulfur prices have surged above $1,000/tonne from a typical $100-300 range due to Strait of Hormuz closure and other conflicts, slashing global phosphate production from an expected 75 million tonnes to around 45 million tonnes this year. StoneX's Josh Linville warned that supply-chain damage from disruptions means prices could stay elevated into spring 2027 even if Hormuz tensions ease. University of Illinois data showed DAP prices rising from about $700/tonne early in 2026 to around $850/tonne. Read →

Yara posted Q3 2026 EBITDA excluding special items of $675 million, down from $804 million a year earlier, with European gas prices averaging $18.1/MMBtu up 57% YoY and cutting $165 million from results. The company curtailed European ammonia and finished fertilizer output to manage high energy costs while leveraging global flexibility and noting a stronger European order book. Yara expects its Gulf Coast Ammonia acquisition to reduce European energy exposure upon closing. Read →

Nutrien confirmed on Oct 5 an indefinite shutdown of its Point Lisas nitrogen complex in Trinidad, citing unreliable natural gas supply after a controlled idling since Oct 2025. The move removes a key ammonia and urea source for Atlantic markets while DTN data shows US retail urea at $674/t (up 13% y/y), anhydrous ammonia at $987/t (up 18%), and similar gains in DAP, MAP and potash. S&P Global links persistent price pressure to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Chinese export curbs and a global sulfur shortage, with forecasters expecting elevated levels through 2026. Read →

Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary Brooke Rollins announced selection of eight FIELDS Program projects representing over $1.34B total investment, including $573M in proposed USDA funding. Key awards include $139M to Intrepid Potash for a 220kt sulfate of potash plant in New Mexico, $100M to PCI Nitrogen for ammonium sulfate and urea upgrades in Texas and Oregon, and $99.8M to TalusAg for 20 modular ammonia units across seven states producing 130kt anhydrous ammonia annually. USDA analysis projects the capacity could cut nitrogen prices 4.4% and potash prices 5.3% once operational while boosting domestic nitrogen output 3.7% and potash nearly 40%. Read →

Yara will further reduce European ammonia production in Q4 after curtailing 150kt ammonia and 115kt finished products in Q3, mainly at Ferrara, Italy. The company forecasts natural gas costs $450M higher in Q4 2026 and $445M higher in Q1 2027 versus year-ago levels due to elevated TTF prices. European ammonia output is already 25-28% offline industry-wide as producers import more to manage margins, adding exposure to global shipping constraints. Read →

StoneX’s quarterly outlook flags firm nitrogen prices into Q4 from reduced Middle East supply, Hormuz risks, and potential December Indian buying. Potash holds steady on ample stocks; phosphates face output caps from Chinese MAP/DAP curbs and high sulfur costs despite some Russian/Kazakh relief. Brazil’s weak September imports and idled phosphate plants underscore supply-driven constraints over demand. Read →

China’s third and fourth urea export rounds (est. 1.5-2Mt each) surprised markets and softened prices, but shipment details remain unclear. India’s 1.7Mt tender drew lowest offers at $352.10/mt CFR east and $356.25/mt west (netback $320 FOB China), with only partial volumes awarded as suppliers resisted. Ammonium sulfate firms on tight availability while potash nears floor amid Black Sea/Baltic logistics risks and Uralkali 20% output cut. Read →

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to fertilizer traffic, halting urea output from Qatar’s massive facility and curbing sulfur and ammonia flows from the region. At least 2 million metric tons of urea production, about 3% of annual seaborne trade, have been lost, with nearly 1 million tons of loaded cargo still stuck in the Gulf. Phosphate producers face extra pressure from sulfur shortages and Chinese export curbs, raising risks of reduced applications and lower yields in 2027. Read →

Mosaic filed a WARN notice to idle its South Fort Meade phosphate operations for over six months starting Dec 8, citing global sulfur shortages tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions and Iran-related conflict. The move cuts 199 jobs and follows prior curtailments at other sites. Sulfur prices above $1,000 per ton raise phosphate production costs, pressuring output and contributing to elevated fertilizer prices for farmers. Read →

Nutrien indefinitely closed its Point Lisas nitrogen complex in Trinidad and Tobago due to ongoing natural gas supply constraints and uncertainty. The shutdown removes a key Caribbean source of ammonia and urea for North and Latin American markets just as buyers prepare for the winter application season. DTN retail data showed UAN32 up 6% month-on-month to $485/ton and urea at $672/ton, with potash crossing back above $500/ton. Read →

DTN's latest retail survey found seven of eight major US nutrients higher year-over-year, with anhydrous ammonia up roughly 22% to about $945/ton and urea up 6-12%. Persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to constrain Middle East exports of urea, ammonia and sulfur, keeping phosphate production costs elevated. The market has settled into a holding pattern after earlier volatility, with limited month-on-month moves. Read →

Bangladesh's Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase approved buying 30kt bagged granular urea from local Kafco at $408.375/t and 40kt bulk granular urea from Saudi SABIC at $431.67/t, plus 20kt phosphoric acid from UAE at $1,087/t. The purchases support the 2026-27 fiscal year agricultural needs at a total cost of around Tk650 crore under subsidy and own funds. This reflects ongoing import reliance amid global supply tightness. Read →

Indian Potash Ltd. bought only 410,000 tons versus 1.7 million tons sought in its recent tender. Traders cite ongoing Middle East hostilities keeping costs elevated. The shortfall signals persistent nitrogen supply constraints for the world's top importer. Read →

UN Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said a US-Iran deal is needed within weeks to activate a UN fertilizer transit plan. The strait normally carries a third of global urea and half of seaborne sulfur. Prolonged closure risks sharp cereal price rises and lower agricultural productivity. Read →

StoneX's Josh Linville said Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens urea, ammonia, phosphate and sulfur supplies from Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with half the world's tradable sulfur passing through the strait. US potash imports rely 90% on Canada amid USMCA uncertainty. High sulfur prices force US and other phosphate production cuts even as demand weakens. Read →

China halted nearly all phosphate fertilizer exports in 2026 after shipping 5.3 million tonnes in 2025, as tight sulfur supplies and Beijing policy prioritize domestic use while restricting sulfuric acid exports. Argus sees only a partial rebound to about 2 million tonnes in 2027. The move adds pressure on import-dependent markets already facing elevated sulfur and ammonia costs. Read →

Average US retail urea reached $672/ton in early October, up $14 from a month earlier and 12% above year-ago levels. UAN32 rose 6% month-over-month to $485/ton while all eight major nutrients exceeded year-ago prices, led by anhydrous ammonia up 20%. Potash crossed back above $500/ton for the first time since August 2024. Read →

Average U.S. retail urea reached $672 per ton, up $14 from a month ago and 12% above year-ago levels. UAN32 jumped 6% to $485 per ton, the largest monthly gain, while anhydrous ammonia hit $977 per ton, up 20% year-over-year. All eight major fertilizers tracked now cost more than a year ago as farmers prepare for the 2027 planting season. Read →

The Fertilizer Institute's Veronica Nigh said the Strait of Hormuz region supplies about 35% of global urea exports, 50% of sulfur and 20% of ammonia and phosphates. Disruptions have driven sulfur spot prices to around $1,100/ton from $400-500/ton earlier in 2026, forcing phosphate production cuts in Egypt, Brazil and India. This tightens supply for the 2027 planting season across nitrogen, phosphate and potash. Read →

Fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz stayed close to zero in early September, seven months after escalation. The waterway normally handles roughly one-third of seaborne urea and 50% of global sulfur. Sulfur prices remain above $1,000/ton, prompting phosphate output cuts elsewhere and tightening supply ahead of major planting seasons. Read →

Indian Potash Ltd closed its 1.7 million tonne urea tender on October 7 with west-coast offers at $356.25, $416.50/t and east-coast at $352.10, $465/t, roughly 10% below August levels and more than double the sought volume. The results signal ample global supply chasing Indian demand as Chinese exports resume and Middle East disruptions ease for nitrogen. Lower benchmark prices ease pressure on the world's largest importer ahead of rabi planting. Read →

Gulf supplies 44% of seaborne sulfur critical for sulfuric acid in phosphate production, with spot values at $805/t FOB Qatar and higher elsewhere after Hormuz disruptions. Phosphate output has curtailed globally, including 30% cuts in Morocco, as processors cannot secure feedstock despite some ammonia easing to $775/t CFR Tampa. Finished DAP/MAP prices in India and Brazil show disconnect from input spikes due to subsidies and demand weakness. Read →

Nutrien will permanently close its Point Lisas nitrogen operations after a strategic review, citing ongoing natural gas constraints and uncertainty that eroded free cash flow. The facility had been idled since October 2025; 2026 nitrogen sales guidance of 9.2, 9.7 million tons remains unchanged as the company shifts focus to North American assets via reliability and debottlenecking projects. Read →

Indian Potash Limited received urea import offers as low as $352.10/t CFR east coast and $356.25/t west coast in its latest tender, nearly 10% below August levels. Offers totaled 5.35 million tonnes against 1.7 million tonnes sought, driven by expanded Chinese export availability. The drop signals easing nitrogen costs for buyers in Brazil, Argentina and elsewhere heading into planting. Read →

Sulfur spot prices have exceeded $1,000/t, up over 130% since early 2026 and 300% since August 2025, due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and export curbs by China and Russia. This has pushed US Corn Belt DAP prices to $850/t, up more than 20% from earlier 2026 levels. High sulfur and ammonia costs continue squeezing phosphate margins and farmer affordability for 2027 crops. Read →

The Iran conflict has halted urea output from Qatar’s giant plant and other Gulf facilities, removing at least 2 million tonnes of annual seaborne supply, with nearly 1 million tonnes of loaded fertilizer still stuck in the Gulf. Sulfur and ammonia flows are also curtailed. Low grain prices leave farmers unable to absorb higher costs, prompting cuts in applications or acreage shifts that threaten 2027 harvests. Read →