Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 53 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,721
+0.08%
+6 |
Dollar Index
102.25
+0.3%
+0.29 |
EUR/USD
1.1142
-0.3%
-0.0037 |
US 10Y Yield
4.986
-0.2 bp
|
Last price as of Tue, Oct 27, 5:34 AM ET. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Crude was quiet today. Brent settled at $116.42 and WTI at $102.31, with the Brent-WTI spread at $14.11.
Palladium down $32 (-3.0%), Platinum down $47 (-3.0%) and Silver down $1.17 (-2.1%), all on positioning ahead of the Fed decision and broader precious metals selloff.
JKM Asian LNG up $0.77 (+2.5%) on Asian winter demand and tight Pacific supply.
Iron ore down $1.0 (-1.1%) on seasonal weakness in Chinese steel demand and rising supply.
No recent bank trade idea meeting the criteria was identified.
Palladium down $32 (-3.0%), Platinum down $47 (-3.0%) and Silver down $1.17 (-2.1%), all on positioning ahead of the Fed decision and broader precious metals selloff.
JKM Asian LNG up $0.77 (+2.5%) on Asian winter demand and tight Pacific supply.
Iron ore down $1.0 (-1.1%) on seasonal weakness in Chinese steel demand and rising supply.
No recent bank trade idea meeting the criteria was identified.
Drivers are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Gold steadies near $4,000 ahead of Fed meeting
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Gold held near $4,000 an ounce as traders prepared for the Federal Reserve's policy decision expected to leave rates unchanged. Bullion gained support from a pullback in oil prices while shrugging off dollar gains and rising yields. Read →
Mercuria claims Baltic kept Hormuz rate out of fear
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Mercuria accused the Baltic Exchange of maintaining the benchmark oil tanker rate during the Iran war to avoid losing business to rivals. The London trial challenges the decision to keep publishing estimates amid Hormuz shipping distortions. Read →
Gold settles higher on oil pullback
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Gold futures settled higher with support from softer oil prices while shrugging off US dollar strength. Silver edged up 0.7% as metals recovered from a psychologically important low. Read →
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In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Nat Gas 4NGL/LPG & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 3Coal 3Agriculture 4Fertilizers 2Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 1Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 2Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Podcasts 1Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Diplomacy in Tehran eases supply fears, sending Brent down 1% to $115 despite ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi sites.
Cash WTI 109.14 +0.51 | Cash Brent 127.93 +0.62 | Cash Br–TI 18.79 +0.11 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
102.31 | +0.5% +0.55 |
+78.2% | +70.1% | +23.8% |
| Brent Dec 2026 |
116.42 | +0.5% +0.61 |
+83.1% | +73.0% | +31.8% |
| RBOB Gasoline Nov 2026 |
3.242 | +0.7% +0.023 |
+85.3% | +64.1% | +29.0% |
| Heating Oil Nov 2026 |
4.905 | -0.1% -0.007 |
+124% | +99.0% | +88.9% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
33.85 | +1.3% +0.43 |
+111% +17.78 |
+48.4% +11.04 |
+47.8% +10.95 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
103.70 | -0.8% -0.84 |
+200% +69.18 |
+139% +60.35 |
+293% +77.33 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
57.13 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+157% +34.91 |
+92.6% +27.47 |
+138% +33.07 |
Oil slips 1% on Iran diplomacy easing supply fears
Reuters · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Brent fell about 1% to $114.81 per barrel and WTI to $100.88 as Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials held talks in Tehran with Iranian leaders and agreed to continue discussions on easing Middle East tensions. Renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia kept risks elevated while Gulf exports and Hormuz flows remained constrained. The pullback reflects profit-taking after last week's surge to six-month highs near $117. Read →
Oil declines as Iran diplomacy picks up before votes
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Brent moved toward $115 and WTI near $101 after senior Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials traveled to Tehran for security talks, with participants agreeing to continue dialogue per IRIB reporting. Markets interpreted the moves as reducing near-term escalation risk ahead of Israeli and US elections. Prices had retreated from Friday's six-month highs driven by prior Houthi strikes and tanker attacks. Read →
Oil extends slide as diplomacy eases escalation fears
CNBC TV18 · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Brent traded at $114.99 in early Asian hours after shedding nearly 1% on Monday while WTI hovered around $101. Traders cited diplomatic activity including Qatari mediation and the Tehran meetings, plus Iran's reported flexibility on reopening Hormuz in exchange for eased US restrictions. Persistent Houthi strikes on Saudi targets and US port blockades on Iran kept the risk premium intact. Read →
Aramco faces spending squeeze with profits set to fall
Francesca Washtell · AGBI · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Saudi Aramco's Q3 net income is forecast to drop 17% to $27 billion as average oil prices eased from war-driven peaks, with analysts expecting the company to maintain its $22 billion quarterly dividend. CEO Amin Nasser emphasized long-term spending on export-route resilience over quick returns amid repeated Houthi attacks on facilities including the East-West pipeline. Production is expected around 10.2 million barrels per day in the quarter. Read →
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Mild weather forecasts and rising output pressure US natural gas futures to two-year lows near $2.53/MMBtu.
Cash Henry Hub 2.741 +0.031 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Nov 2026 |
2.584 | -0.7% -0.018 |
-17.5% | -9.1% | -51.0% |
US natgas futures hit six-month low on warm outlook
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
US natural gas futures fell to their lowest level since April after weekend forecasts turned significantly warmer, cutting expected heating demand early in the winter season. The shift reinforces expectations of a Super El Niño delivering mild winter weather and lower gas use when demand normally peaks. Hedge funds built the largest net-short position since 2013 on the bearish view. Read →
US natgas futures settle lower on mild weather
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
NYMEX November natural gas futures settled down 1.4% at $2.602/MMBtu after briefly trading below $2.50, extending losses from milder near-term weather outlooks. The November contract faces expiration this week with December struggling near $3. Commitments of Traders data showed speculators increasing net shorts, though the oversold market may set up a relief rally. Read →
US natgas futures fall 4% to six-month low
Reuters via Business Recorder · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Front-month NYMEX natural gas futures dropped about 4% to a six-month low at $2.526/MMBtu on forecasts for milder weather and reduced demand over the next two weeks. Speculators boosted net short positions to the highest since February 2024 as prices fell 21% over seven days. The March-April 2027 futures premium narrowed to a record low of 6 cents, signaling ample winter supply expectations. Read →
Mild weather and rising output weigh on natgas
Kevin Dobbs · Natural Gas Intelligence · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
NYMEX natural gas futures stumbled midday Monday as mild fall weather and recovering Lower 48 production of around 113.3 bcfd overshadowed solid LNG feedgas flows averaging 18.3 bcfd in October. November futures shed 6.1 cents to $2.579/MMBtu while December held near $3.025, with LNG demand providing the main floor under prices. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Strong US LPG exports above 2 MMb/d and propane stocks draw of 0.5 MMbbl to 105.8 MMbbl lift Mont Belvieu propane 0.7% to 107.2¢/gal.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.302 | +0.1% +0.000 |
+27.3% | +13.4% | -30.8% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.072 | +0.7% +0.008 |
+73.7% | +63.0% | -25.9% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.723 | +0.2% +0.003 |
+131% | +106% | +6.5% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.867 | +0.3% +0.005 |
+140% | +114% | +15.1% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.230 | -0.0% -0.001 |
+90.3% | +79.3% | +16.2% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 13 | unch | +10 | +5 | +4 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 84 | +1 | +51 | +44 | -13 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -691 | unch | -387 | -370 | -265 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -367 | +4 | -200 | -182 | -356 |
| C5 as % WTI | 92 | unch | +6 | +5 | -6 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
US Gulf Coast LPG prices hit multiyear highs on export pull
Akira Nakamura · World Ports Organization · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Platts assessed USGC propane at multiyear highs on Oct. 22 with exports sustained above 2 MMb/d; Japan took 27% and China 17% of October loadings. EIA data released Oct. 21 showed propane/propylene stocks fell 0.5 MMbbl to 105.846 MMbbl, lowest since early August. Butane prices also reached highs since March 2022 with Conway-Enterprise spread widening sharply. Read →
US ethane cracking margins narrow to 9.5¢/lb on ethylene sales
Michael Camarda · World Ports Organization · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Argus model shows ethane cracking margins at 9.5¢/lb after heavy forward ethylene sales for Nov-Dec delivery lowered spot prices to three-month lows. Mont Belvieu ethane cash costs hit seven-month highs near 27¢/gal while propane and butane margins turned negative. Ethane remains the cheapest feedstock despite the compression. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF jumps to four-year high near €97/MWh on low EU storage and tight LNG supply amid Hormuz disruptions.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
95.80 | -0.9% -0.88 |
+243% | +207% | +11.4% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
31.28 | -0.9% -0.29 |
+243% | +207% | +11.4% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
32.20 | +2.5% +0.77 |
+235% | +189% | -5.0% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sun, Oct 25
EU gas storage is 74.9% full, 849 TWh in store, 14.7 points below the five-year average for this date and 7.9 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 61.6%.
EU full 74.9% +0.21 pts d/d | Year ago 82.8% | 5-yr avg 89.6% same date |
Germany 61.6% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF hits €97/MWh high on LNG supply crunch and low storage.
Elias Al Helou · Economy Global · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Dutch TTF futures reached €97.15/MWh (+3.3%) on Monday as Arabian Gulf LNG flows stayed 80% below year-ago levels due to Middle East conflict and Hormuz shipping issues. EU storage sat at 74.62% (well below the 89% seasonal norm), with Germany at 61.48%, forcing Europe and Asia to compete harder for alternative cargoes heading into winter. ING raised its 2026 to 27 TTF winter average forecast to €73/MWh, highlighting sustained volatility from the tight balance. Read →
QatarEnergy extends force majeure on LNG to Edison until December.
World Energy News · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
QatarEnergy extended force majeure notices, canceling further cargoes to Italian utility Edison (total now 35 undelivered) with deliveries suspended until early December, and to Asian buyers including Bangladesh and Pakistan through November. Edison has replaced 23 cargoes mainly from US sources under its 6.4 bcm/year long-term contract. The extensions stem from ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict, slashing Qatar's LNG exports sharply and tightening global spot supply for Europe and Asia. Read →
TTF tops €97/MWh on winter supply risks and Middle East outlook.
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
European benchmark TTF futures briefly exceeded €97/MWh for the first time since 2022, up as much as 4% intraday, on mounting concerns over the region's fragile winter supply balance and Middle East developments. Traders anticipate rising heating demand from forecast temperature drops across the continent coinciding with already tight global LNG availability, setting up potential bidding competition with Asian buyers. The move underscores Europe's vulnerability entering the season with below-normal storage. Read →
TTF and NBP hit four-year highs on LNG tightness and colder weather.
Gas Processing & LNG · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Dutch TTF front-month gained €3.54 to €97.39/MWh and UK NBP rose 9.90p to 240.74p/therm, both at four-year highs, driven by cooler weather forecasts boosting heating demand and persistent doubts over timely LNG shipping resumption through the Strait of Hormuz. Rystad Energy estimates 2026 global LNG import bills rising 18% to $256 billion despite lower volumes, with Europe facing at least a $12 billion increase. EU storage has plateaued near 74.6% while Norwegian exports remain steady at 324 mcm/day. Read →
Chart of the dayEurope gas storage vs Asia LNG prices Oct 2026via @ekwufinance on X · 644 likesChart comparing Europe's low storage levels entering winter with Asia's surging LNG spot prices, highlighting US flexible LNG exports and potential 2022-style price spike
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · ERCOT data center audit nears Dec completion amid 474 GW queue; PJM backstop auction delayed.
ERCOT targets Dec 10 finish on data center audit
Utility Dive · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
ERCOT plans to finish auditing hundreds of data center proposals in the Batch Zero process by Dec. 10. The audit follows Gov. Abbott’s directive on the 474 GW large-load queue, 90% data centers. Completion is required before interconnections can resume and affects the grid’s upcoming load forecast. Read →
FERC criticizes PJM backstop auction delay
Utility Dive · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
PJM delayed its reliability backstop procurement after FERC’s partial rejection of the data-center cost-allocation plan. The auction was set to start Sept. 30; FERC upheld a $555/MW-day cap but found cost allocation unjust and unreasonable. PJM will revise and resubmit. Read →
Data centers drove 40% of PJM capacity costs
Utility Dive · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
PJM’s market monitor attributed 40% of recent capacity auction revenues ($6.5B of $16.4B) to data-center load. ERCOT’s large-load queue grew 300% last year, mostly data centers. The monitor called load-forecast uncertainty unprecedented. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China Shanxi mine restarts and India import rebound ease supply squeeze, firming thermal prices amid winter demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
147.25 | +0.2% +0.25 |
+51.1% | +59.8% | -37.6% |
| Newcastle $/t |
155.90 | -0.6% -0.95 |
+47.4% | +41.8% | -12.3% |
Global coal prices firm as Europe, Asia strengthen
The Coal Hub · Mon, Oct 27, 2026
European thermal coal held at $148 to 150/t, highest since early 2023, supported by higher natural gas, oil and power prices from Strait of Hormuz issues and restricted Kazakh supplies. Chinese Qinhuangdao 5,500 NAR spot rose to $154/t on stronger consumption and winter buying, with Shanxi output recovery directives limiting near-term supply gains. Australian thermal benchmarks climbed while metallurgical prices faced pressure from expected Chinese domestic coking coal increases. Read →
India thermal coal imports rebound in October
Saurabh Chaturvedi · Argus Media · Sun, Oct 26, 2026
Kpler estimates October thermal coal imports at 15.06 million tonnes, the highest since May 2025 and first year-on-year rise since January. Record coal-fired generation of 86.27 TWh through Oct 22, up 27.6% year-on-year, plus post-monsoon industrial demand from cement and sponge iron sectors drew down stocks to critically low levels at many plants. Cargoes booked in late September/early October reflect aggressive restocking despite multi-year high prices. Read →
Malaysia may extend coal plant lives for security
Bloomberg · Sun, Oct 26, 2026
Deputy Prime Minister Fadillah Yusof said Malaysia will consider extending existing coal-fired power plants if needed to ensure power supply, despite no new approvals. The policy stance prioritizes energy security amid regional demand pressures. This maintains coal's role in the power mix as the country balances transition goals with reliability needs. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Brazil election win weakens real, pressuring US soybeans amid fast US harvest.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
453 | -0.4% -2 |
+3.0% | +4.9% | -18.7% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
615 | -0.1% -1 |
+21.4% | +16.3% | -19.0% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,256 | +0.3% +4 |
+21.9% | +16.5% | +1.4% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
19.10 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+27.2% | +32.9% | -3.0% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
301.4 | +0.1% +0.4 |
-13.6% | -22.3% | +49.7% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,503 | +0.2% +13 |
-9.3% | -8.3% | +111% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.47 | -0.7% -0.59 |
+22.1% | +20.6% | -29.0% |
Lula win weakens real, pushing soybeans to two-month low
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won reelection in Brazil, sending the real sharply lower and raising expectations of stronger Brazil-China soybean trade ties. The most-active Chicago soybean contract fell as much as 1.7% to its lowest since late August. The move boosts Brazilian export competitiveness against US supplies for the world's top importer. Read →
Soybeans drop double digits on Brazil plantings, export data
Ben Potter · Farm Futures · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
January soybean futures fell 16 cents to $12.5250 on Monday. Brazil's 2026 to 27 corn and soybean planting advanced ahead of last year's pace per AgRural, while USDA export inspections showed strong soybean shipments but weaker corn and wheat volumes. Corn futures closed a penny lower at $4.55. Read →
USDA: US corn 60% harvested, 6 points behind average
Mariah Squire · Successful Farming / Agriculture.com · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
USDA's weekly Crop Progress report showed 60% of US corn harvested as of Oct. 25, six points behind the five-year average. Soybean harvest reached 79%, two points ahead of average. Winter wheat planting hit 76%, one point behind pace, with 53% emerged. Read →
Soybeans tumble overnight on Lula reelection, harvest pressure
Tony Dreibus · Successful Farming / Agriculture.com · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
November soybean futures dropped 17.75 cents to $12.5075 overnight after Lula's surprise reelection raised prospects for deeper Brazil-China trade. Corn futures lost 3.25 cents to $4.5275 amid accelerating US harvest progress. Wheat futures were mixed. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Sulfur shortage from Hormuz disruption and Nutrien's Trinidad nitrogen plant closure drive fertilizer prices higher.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,686 | +0.4% +6 |
-3.6% | +2.8% | -34.9% |
| Egypt FOB $/t |
507.50 | -0.5% -2.50 |
-11.7% | +17.0% | -37.2% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
479.50 | -0.2% -1.00 |
+17.7% | +14.0% | -38.5% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
436.25 | -0.1% -0.50 |
+12.8% | +15.2% | -37.1% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.6% | +17.1% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Sulfur shortage threatens phosphate output into 2027 despite Hormuz easing.
Farming Portal / Agweb · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Mosaic executive Ben Pratt said sulfur prices have surged above $1,000/tonne from a typical $100 to 300 range due to Strait of Hormuz closure and other conflicts, slashing global phosphate production from an expected 75 million tonnes to around 45 million tonnes this year. StoneX's Josh Linville warned that supply-chain damage from disruptions means prices could stay elevated into spring 2027 even if Hormuz tensions ease. University of Illinois data showed DAP prices rising from about $700/tonne early in 2026 to around $850/tonne. Read →
Yara Q3 EBITDA falls 16% to $675M on European gas costs surge.
Yara International · Wed, Oct 22, 2026
Yara posted Q3 2026 EBITDA excluding special items of $675 million, down from $804 million a year earlier, with European gas prices averaging $18.1/MMBtu up 57% YoY and cutting $165 million from results. The company curtailed European ammonia and finished fertilizer output to manage high energy costs while leveraging global flexibility and noting a stronger European order book. Yara expects its Gulf Coast Ammonia acquisition to reduce European energy exposure upon closing. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · LME zinc surges 2.12% to two-week high on tight stocks and power prices; nickel falls 2.04% for third day.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,537 | +0.8% +115 |
+17.1% | +28.3% | +50.3% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,513 | +0.4% +61 |
+14.3% | +35.9% | +52.1% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,151 | -0.0% -1 |
+5.9% | +20.7% | +0.3% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,423 | +0.6% +19 |
+13.9% | +24.4% | +9.1% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,672 | -0.8% -121 |
-7.5% | +3.4% | -20.2% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,174 | +1.0% +22 |
-1.3% | +2.8% | +8.9% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
51,376 | +0.7% +366 |
+22.3% | +45.3% | +34.2% |
LME zinc leads base metals gains; nickel falls third day
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Overnight, LME zinc rose 2.12% while nickel fell another 2.04%. SHFE base metals mostly gained with zinc up 0.99% and nickel down 1.18%. Tight LME and SHFE zinc stocks plus high power prices drove the move; nickel weakness extended on oversupply. Read →
Typhoon delays copper imports; China stocks draw
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Typhoon weather delayed imported copper vessel arrivals into China. Shanghai and Jiangsu social inventories fell further to 48,100 mt and 19,500 mt. Spot premiums rose to 900 yuan/mt average as limited supply met steady downstream offtake. Read →
Zinc hits two-week high on tight stocks
Reuters via Business Recorder · Mon, Oct 27, 2026
LME three-month zinc rose to $3,821.50/mt, highest since Oct 12, on falling inventories and higher power prices. SHFE zinc stocks dropped 5% to 137,139 mt, lowest since March; LME on-warrant stocks stood at 133,700 mt with cash-3M backwardation near $81/mt. Read →
1,200+ strike at Teck Highland Valley copper mine
Catherine Garrett · CBC News · Sat, Oct 25, 2026
United Steelworkers Local 7619 began strike action at Teck’s Highland Valley Copper mine in British Columbia. The operation, Canada’s largest open-pit copper mine, runs at reduced capacity; impact on output depends on strike length. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · SGX 62% Fe futures hit two-year low at $89.25/t on weak China steel demand and rising Q4 supply.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
88.1 | -1.1% -1.0 |
-12.5% | -9.8% | -14.3% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
407 | -0.6% -2 |
+3.3% | +6.2% | -48.6% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
415 | -1.0% -4 |
+0.6% | +2.0% | -48.1% |
Iron ore hits two-year low on weak China demand outlook.
Bloomberg / The Edge Malaysia · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
SGX iron ore futures fell as much as 1.4% to $89.25/t, the lowest intraday level since September 2024, with DCE contracts also at multi-year lows. Weak Chinese steel mill profitability, hand-to-mouth buying amid high port stocks, and expected 18Mt higher shipments from major miners plus Simandou ramp-up drove the decline. Prices are seen staying soft through November with further downside risk to $85 to 86/t. Read →
Fortescue Q1 shipments fall 6% YoY amid CMRG talks.
SteelOrbis · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Fortescue mined 62.7Mt iron ore in the September quarter, up 4% YoY, but shipments dropped 6% YoY and 11% QoQ to 46.8Mt while sales lagged shipments by 3.9Mt due to CMRG negotiations. The company expects inventories to rise another 4 to 5Mt in October and warned operations could face adjustments if talks drag past year-end, though it kept full-year shipment guidance at 197 to 207Mt. Read →
Iron ore slides near four-year lows on weak mill profits.
Emily Carter · World Ports Organization · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 670/t near four-year lows as blast furnace operating rates at 247 Chinese mills hit 80%, down 4.3% YoY, reflecting thin profitability. Elevated port arrivals and global shipments added supply pressure while a new CMRG-Rio Tinto supply agreement eased some availability concerns but did little to lift demand sentiment. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Oil pullback and Fed hold bets lift gold back above $4,000.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,009 | -0.7% -30 |
-7.7% | +0.6% | +123% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
53.18 | -2.1% -1.17 |
-24.2% | +12.8% | +120% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,499 | -3.0% -47 |
-26.3% | -5.0% | +47.2% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,021 | -3.0% -32 |
-37.4% | -27.2% | -48.4% |
Gold reclaims $4,000 on modest spec retreat
Atsuko Whitehouse · BullionVault · Mon, Oct 26, 10:13 AM ET
Spot gold traded at $4,021 per ounce after recovering the $4,000 level. CFTC data showed eight straight weeks of declines in speculative net-long positions, down 28.2% as prices fell 10.6%. SPDR Gold Shares saw a large weekly outflow of 1.64% or about 17 tonnes, the biggest since early March. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China's heavy rare earth export licensing keeps dysprosium and yttrium premiums extreme while NdPr prices converge to the $110/kg US floor.
Miners lag as ex-China NdPr rises 23% but stocks fall 28%.
Wall Street Logic · Sun, Oct 26, 2026
Canaccord data shows ex-China neodymium-praseodymium oxide prices up 23% YTD while its rare earth producer coverage fell 28% on average. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium ($1,074/kg Rotterdam vs $227/kg China) and yttrium ($1,150/kg ex-China vs $9/kg in China) reflect April 2025 licensing restrictions that slashed US yttrium shipments. The $110/kg NdPr floor from Pentagon deals with MP Materials and Lynas now matches market levels, shifting investor focus from price support to execution risk ahead of the January 2027 Pentagon sourcing ban. Read →
China suspends US ban on gallium, germanium, antimony.
Reuters · Sun, Nov 9, 2025
China's commerce ministry suspended its outright ban on gallium, germanium and antimony exports to the US effective immediately until November 27, 2026, following the Trump-Xi meeting, though dual-use licensing requirements stay in place. The prior ban had prompted US importers to use workarounds via third countries for uses in semiconductors, fibre optics, ammunition and flame retardants. The move relaxes one layer of controls but leaves broader export licensing intact. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · BDI slips 1.23% to 2,628 on Monday as capesize and panamax rates fall amid soft China iron ore demand.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.35M | -6.0% | +1679% | 224.7 | 30.65 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$429k | -22.1% | +621% | 120.8 | 16.48 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$209k | -16.0% | +299% | 122.7 | 16.74 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$329k | +9.7% | +1076% | 214.2 | 28.75 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$245k | +13.7% | +1080% | 228.5 | 25.67 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$62k | -3.1% | +74.6% | 89.7 | 10.55 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$78k | +8.3% | +273% | 106.8 | 14.34 |
Report of Oct 22, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
BDI falls 1.23% to 2,628, near one-week low.
Akira Nakamura · World Ports Organization · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index dropped 32 points or 1.23% to 2,628 on Monday, its lowest in nearly a week. Capesize rates fell 65 points to 3,726 with daily earnings down $585 to $30,292; panamax slipped 34 points to 2,075. Iron ore prices held steady as traders weighed weaker seasonal Chinese demand against possible Beijing stimulus. Read →
Far East-Europe rates rebound as Suez returns.
Maritime News · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Far East-Europe spot rates rose in the week to Oct 23 even as carriers restored Red Sea/Suez services, with Suez Canal container capacity hitting 753,000 TEU weekly, over half pre-disruption levels per BIMCO/Clarksons. US-bound rates appear to have peaked. The opposing moves reflect returning capacity clashing with firm demand on Europe lanes. Read →
Asia-Europe rates up 6.8% as Suez routings resume.
Container Management / Xeneta · Sat, Oct 24, 2026
Far East-North Europe rates climbed 6.8% week-on-week to $3,698/FEU and Mediterranean 5.8% to $4,442/FEU per Xeneta, despite more services shifting back to Suez. Strong Europe import demand (up 12.2% YTD) offset added capacity; US West/East Coast rates held near peaks at $8,311 and $11,525/FEU. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs surge most in six weeks to near 9-month high on cold weather and energy rally.
EUAs jump most in six weeks on cold snap and energy gains
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
EU carbon prices rose sharply Monday, posting the biggest daily gain in six weeks as colder weather forecasts cut wind generation and lifted natural gas and power prices. The Dec 2026 contract approached levels not seen in nine months amid bullish end-of-year outlooks. Higher fossil-fuel power demand tightens the near-term EUA balance and supports compliance buying. Read →
RGGI allowances stay rangebound below $40
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
RGGI Allowance futures traded in the upper $39 range with little movement as traders cited a lack of near-term catalysts. The market lacks fresh supply or demand signals after recent auctions and policy updates. Flat prices reflect balanced supply-demand in the Northeast power-sector program. Read →
D6 RINs drop more than D4 on comfortable supply
Robert Lane · Fastmarkets · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
2026-vintage D6 RINs declined more sharply than D4 credits after September EMTS data showed strong ethanol output and a smaller-than-expected gasoline pool. The D4 premium widened to about 12 cents as D6 supply tracks closer to its requirement while D4 remains tighter. Strong biodiesel economics and pending EPA small-refinery exemption decisions keep the complex volatile. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Aviva's $66M tokenized GBP fund launch on XRPL and Hyperliquid oil/gas perps trading $200M+ daily volumes drive RWA/commodity on-chain activity.
Aviva launches tokenized £22B sterling fund on XRPL
The Block · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Aviva Investors launched a tokenized share class of its £22 billion ($29.4 billion) Sterling Liquidity Fund on the XRP Ledger in partnership with Ripple. The firm invested £50 million ($66.7 million) of its own capital in the new class, its second tokenized MMF after a July USD version, bringing combined tokenized holdings above £86 million. The 'digital twin' structure keeps physical assets off-chain with BNY Mellon custody while enabling on-chain access for eligible investors, expanding tokenized money-market options in Europe. Read →
HKGX gold token XGZ adds Chainlink CCIP for cross-chain moves
Kaye Quema · Crypto Briefing · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
GoldZip, tied to the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, integrated Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) for its XGZ gold-backed token, enabling secure transfers across blockchains beyond Ethereum. Each XGZ represents one gram of 99.99% fine physical gold held in accredited vaults and is redeemable for bars (minimum 1 kg after checks). The move positions the token for broader institutional use as a launch partner for CCIP 2.0, with roughly 39,000 tokens circulating. Read →
Canada consults on stablecoin rules banning yield
CoinDesk · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Canada's Department of Finance opened a 60-day consultation on draft stablecoin regulations requiring non-bank issuers to hold 1:1 reserves at qualified Canadian institutions, redeem within three business days with fees capped at 1%, and register with the Bank of Canada. The rules maintain a ban on paying interest or yield for merely holding tokens (while allowing transaction-linked rewards) and target implementation in fall 2027. The framework aims to address risks in reserves, insolvency and operations amid growing stablecoin use. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · EQT-Range $13B all-stock deal and Ovintiv $890M Montney buy headline fresh M&A wave as majors eye record Q3 profits.
EQT buys Range in $13B all-stock deal to lead US gas output
Reuters · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
EQT will acquire Range Resources in an all-stock transaction valued at $13 billion equity, creating the largest US natural gas producer with pro forma output above 9 bcfe/d, nearly 3 million net acres and over 30 years of drilling inventory. Range shareholders receive 0.987 EQT shares per share, a 20.6% premium, with EQT owners retaining 73% of the combined entity. The deal targets $325 million annual synergies within two years and positions the firm for rising Appalachian demand from LNG exports and power generation. Read →
Ovintiv acquires Logan Energy for $890M to grow Montney
Reuters · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Ovintiv agreed to buy Canadian producer Logan Energy in an all-cash deal valued at about $890 million including debt, adding 266,000 net Montney acres and 20,000 boe/d production. The transaction brings 420 net drilling locations and is expected to generate $60 million in annual cost synergies while lifting 2027 cash flow per share by 5%. Closing is targeted for early first-quarter 2027 subject to approvals. Read →
Nucor Q3 profit beats estimates on higher steel prices
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Nucor reported third-quarter earnings of $5.80 per share, beating the $5.77 Bloomberg consensus, with net sales of $11.2 billion topping the $10.8 billion estimate. Net earnings attributable to shareholders reached $1.32 billion, more than double the year-ago $607 million, as higher steel prices and volumes drove gains in mills and products segments. The company guided fourth-quarter results in line with or modestly above Q3. Read →
Kinder Morgan posts record Q3 with $14.4B backlog
SEC filing / company release · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
Kinder Morgan reported record Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $2.18 billion, up 9% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $0.35, up 21%. The natural gas pipeline operator expanded its expansion project backlog to a record $14.4 billion, including the largest natural gas project backlog in company history at $13.2 billion, with $5.4 billion in new additions. Full-year adjusted EBITDA and EPS are now expected more than 6% and 13% above prior budget, respectively. Read →
Eni doubles Q3 profit, raises buyback and adds special dividend
Eni press release · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Eni reported third-quarter adjusted net profit of €2.8 billion, more than double year-over-year, with pro forma adjusted EBIT at €6 billion. The company raised full-year 2026 cash flow from operations guidance to €16.5 billion and production growth to 6 to 7%, while declaring an extraordinary €0.46 per share dividend and increasing the share buyback program by 12% to €3.8 billion. Pro forma gearing fell to a record low 9%. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump diesel deal drives Russian output up, first sanctioned tankers head to US ports
Three Russian diesel tankers head to US, one sanctioned
Alice Hancock, Jamie Smyth · Financial Times · Mon, Oct 27, 2026
Three tankers carrying about 140,000 tonnes of Russian diesel, including one blacklisted by the EU/UK/Canada, are scheduled to arrive at US ports next week under the Trump-Putin deal exempting the fuel from sanctions. The shipments are the first licensed imports since the 2022 ban and arrive days after the US midterms. The move aims to ease US diesel prices but raises legal risks for buyers and drew congressional backlash. Read →
Russian refiners boost diesel output post-US deal
Reuters · Sun, Oct 26, 2026
Russian refiners are increasing diesel production in October after receiving export quotas tied to the Kremlin’s supply agreement with the United States. Output had fallen to about 160,000 tons per day in early October but is rising toward 180,000 tons per day following the mid-month quotas. The deal, announced by Trump on Oct. 9, includes an initial 300,000 tons for the US and global markets plus further volumes. Read →
Trump waives up to 500% Russia tariffs, 100% on buyers
Container News · Wed, Oct 22, 2026
President Trump issued an executive order on Oct. 16 waiving new tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and up to 100% on goods from the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. The waiver, justified on national interest grounds, took effect before the Oct. 18 deadline and can be revoked later. Other existing sanctions on Russia remain unchanged. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil re-test of breakout level eyed by traders
X / multiple traders · Mon, Oct 26
Traders on X under #OOTT are watching WTI and Brent for signs of a successful re-test of key resistance after recent volatility tied to Gulf shipping risks and tanker incidents. Discussions highlight chart patterns suggesting bulls may be positioning for a sustained move higher if the pullback holds, with oil prices remaining elevated above $100 despite daily swings. Read →
Brent near $116 as Russian diesel deal faces scrutiny
X / @staunovo · Mon, Oct 26
Commodity analyst @staunovo flagged Rep. Raskin's warning that Trump's proposed Russian diesel deal could violate US law, even as the White House claims legality. #OOTT traders are discussing how this could affect supply dynamics and prices already supported by Hormuz risks and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Read →
Gold range-bound near $4,000 pre-Fed
X / multiple traders · Mon, Oct 26
Gold analysts and traders on X are monitoring the $4,000 support and $4,035 resistance as prices consolidate in a tight range. Sentiment centers on waiting for the Fed meeting, with many favoring short-term range trades or awaiting clearer breakout signals rather than aggressive positioning. Read →
Hormuz blockade megathread draws retail chatter
r/oil · Mon, Oct 26
Retail traders and posters in r/oil are actively discussing ongoing tanker incidents, potential US-Iran developments, and impacts on global oil flows in the dedicated weekly megathread. Sentiment reflects heightened concern over supply disruptions and price volatility from the prolonged conflict. Read →
India turns to Gulf crude as Russia freight spikes
X / @staunovo · Mon, Oct 26
#OOTT discussions note Indian buyers pulling back from Russian supplies due to soaring tanker rates from Middle East risks, favoring shorter-haul Persian Gulf crude instead. This shift is seen as a direct response to the ongoing shipping disruptions and higher logistics costs. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Kpler's Smith on CNBC Power Lunch
Matt Smith (Kpler) on CNBC Power Lunch · Thu, Oct 22
Kpler director of commodity research discusses Iran tensions, oil flows and midterms impact on energy markets. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12%
-1pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through December 31
30%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by December 31
11%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
16%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
6%
-9pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
8%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
17%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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