Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 51 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,768
-0.2%
-15 |
Dollar Index
102.31
+0.1%
+0.11 |
EUR/USD
1.1135
-0.2%
-0.0022 |
US 10Y Yield
5.045
+5.2 bp
|
Last price as of Thu, Oct 29, 5:34 AM ET. Click price for news.
Today's sponsor slot is open. Ask us about it →
Downey's Take
Crude down $1.28 (-1.1%) on hopes for US-Iran peace talks easing Middle East supply risks.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $4.87 (-4.9%) on easing supply fears as winter procurement slows.
Platinum down $36 (-2.3%) on Fed rate hold and rising rate-hike odds pressuring industrial metals demand.
Newcastle coal down $3.15 (-2.0%).
JKM Asian LNG up $0.62 (+2.0%) on persistent winter demand from Northeast Asia amid Middle East shipping risks.
Silver down $0.91 (-1.7%) on Fed hold and higher December rate-hike odds weighing on precious metals.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $4.87 (-4.9%) on easing supply fears as winter procurement slows.
Platinum down $36 (-2.3%) on Fed rate hold and rising rate-hike odds pressuring industrial metals demand.
Newcastle coal down $3.15 (-2.0%).
JKM Asian LNG up $0.62 (+2.0%) on persistent winter demand from Northeast Asia amid Middle East shipping risks.
Silver down $0.91 (-1.7%) on Fed hold and higher December rate-hike odds weighing on precious metals.
Drivers are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil rises ahead of OPEC+ output call
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Brent crude climbed toward $75 a barrel in early trading as markets awaited an OPEC+ meeting expected to decide on production levels for December. Traders are watching for any signals on voluntary cuts by key producers amid concerns over global demand growth. Read →
Copper surges on Chile mine supply fears
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
London copper futures jumped more than 2% after reports of potential disruptions at major Chilean operations. The move comes as inventories at the LME remain tight and investors position for stronger industrial demand. Read →
Gas jumps on Europe storage shortfall
Financial Times · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
European natural gas futures surged after data showed storage levels falling faster than expected ahead of the winter heating season. Traders cited colder-than-normal forecasts as a key driver of the price spike. Read →
Gold holds near record ahead of Fed
Wall Street Journal · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Spot gold traded just below its all-time high as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision. Safe-haven demand remains supported by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over U.S. interest rates. Read →
Wheat climbs on Black Sea export concerns
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Chicago wheat futures rose after fresh concerns emerged over export flows from the Black Sea region. Weather issues in key producing areas added to the upward pressure on prices. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
3. ONEOK Announces Higher Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings and Increases 2026 Financial Guidance Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 5US Nat Gas 4NGL/LPG & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 3Coal 2Agriculture 2Fertilizers 2Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 2On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Podcasts 3Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Diplomacy hopes with US VP Vance outreach to Iran's Rezaei drive oil lower amid Houthi attacks and US crude draw.
Cash WTI 107.74 -1.97 | Cash Brent 124.34 -1.20 | Cash Br–TI 16.60 +0.77 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
101.36 | -1.4% -1.42 |
+76.5% | +67.3% | +21.3% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
110.36 | -1.1% -1.28 |
+81.4% | +69.8% | +30.8% |
| RBOB Gasoline Nov 2026 |
3.137 | -1.2% -0.037 |
+80.2% | +53.4% | +24.8% |
| Heating Oil Nov 2026 |
4.695 | -2.5% -0.120 |
+115% | +85.7% | +83.0% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
30.38 | -0.4% -0.13 |
+93.8% +14.70 |
+20.1% +5.08 |
+38.4% +8.42 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
95.83 | -3.6% -3.63 |
+181% +61.74 |
+110% +50.24 |
+297% +71.67 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
52.19 | -2.4% -1.29 |
+139% +30.38 |
+62.8% +20.13 |
+130% +29.51 |
Oil falls as Vance Iran outreach eases supply fears
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Oil prices fell Thursday with Brent down about $1.22 to near $114.10 and WTI off $1.33 near $101.45 as US Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei to explore restarting peace talks. The move, reported at President Trump's direction, tempered concerns over renewed US strikes on Iran despite ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and shipping risks. US crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million last week per EIA data, exceeding expectations, while gasoline stocks built. Read →
Vance letter to Rezaei seeks Iran peace talks framework
Benoit Faucon, Alexander Ward, Natalie Andrews · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
US Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei to test grounds for restarting US-Iran negotiations and potentially avert renewed strikes after next week's midterms. The outreach focuses on a negotiation framework rather than detailed proposals and includes discussion of Iran's nuclear program. Trump approved the contact, though he described it in public remarks as concerning medical supplies. Read →
UBS lifts Brent year-end forecast to $110 on risks
Reuters · Thu, Oct 28, 2026
UBS raised its Brent crude price forecast to $110 per barrel by end-2026 from $100, citing persistent Middle East supply vulnerabilities, global inventories down over 500 million barrels since February, and record tanker freight costs of $30 to 40 per barrel on Middle East-China routes. The bank also lifted its 2027 quarterly forecasts by $5 each. Gulf loadings have recovered but remain below pre-conflict levels amid vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Read →
EIA: US crude draws 1.9M bbl to 410.6M, gasoline builds
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
US commercial crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million in the week ended Oct 23, a larger draw than the expected small build, with Cushing stocks down 624,000 barrels. Distillate stocks declined 1.5 million barrels while gasoline inventories rose 3.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization slipped to 92.8% with crude runs at 16.5 million b/d. Read →
Houthis claim strike on Saudi Ras Tanura refinery
Reuters · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Yemen's Houthis claimed a ballistic missile strike on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery at Ras Tanura, capacity 550,000 b/d, causing a fire at the complex that includes a key Gulf export terminal. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the hit but reported intercepting missiles; satellite imagery later indicated damage to a processing unit. The attack adds to ongoing Houthi strikes on Saudi energy and civilian targets amid the wider regional conflict. Read →
Chart of the dayOil vol breakevens Oct 27 2026via @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 194 likesSourced chart of implied vs realised vol breakevens and risk metrics for Brent/WTI showing cheap vol relative to realised moves, key for daily oil letter positioning
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · US natural gas futures rebound on LNG feedgas surge above 20 Bcf/d and November contract expiry.
Cash Henry Hub 2.747 -0.003 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
3.059 | +0.9% +0.027 |
-17.0% | -22.7% | -43.6% |
US LNG feedgas rebounds above 20 Bcf/d, holds into mid-Nov.
Jacob Dick · Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
US LNG feedgas demand rebounded Wednesday to 20.2 Bcf/d, up 800 MMcf/d from Tuesday per NGI Entropic data, averaging 19.2 Bcf/d in October. Sabine Pass, Plaquemines, Cameron and Golden Pass drove gains, with Freeport recovering from a power outage. Analysts see demand holding near 20 Bcf/d through mid-November, tightening near-term balances. Read →
Natgas futures rebound despite bearish fundamentals.
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
NYMEX natural gas futures rose Wednesday ahead of November expiry, led by the front month, on improving weather signals and polar vortex speculation. Gains came despite persistent bearish supply and mild-weather demand outlooks. Traders focused on LNG strength and contract rollover dynamics. Read →
US natgas futures climb 3% on demand forecast.
Reuters · Wed, Oct 29, 2026
US natural gas futures for November rose 3% to $2.776/MMBtu on the last trading day, supported by higher demand forecasts and rising LNG plant flows. LSEG sees Lower 48 output at 112.1 Bcf/d in October, down from prior records, with total demand rising to 110.3 Bcf/d next week. The 12-month strip hit a 26-month low at $2.84/MMBtu. Read →
Natgas spot prices split sharply by region.
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Spot prices diverged Wednesday, with Appalachia and Northeast declining while Midwest, Rockies and much of Texas rallied, leaving the national average little changed. Regional basis volatility reflects pipeline flows and localized demand. LNG feedgas strength provided underlying support. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Strong US propane exports erase seasonal surplus as EIA reports fourth straight weekly stock draw to 105.7 MMbbl.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.302 | +0.2% +0.001 |
+27.4% | +14.2% | -28.1% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.075 | +0.4% +0.005 |
+74.2% | +63.6% | -22.7% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.739 | +0.5% +0.008 |
+133% | +108% | +6.2% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.875 | +0.4% +0.008 |
+141% | +114% | +14.7% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.239 | +0.5% +0.011 |
+91.1% | +80.3% | +16.6% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 10 | unch | +11 | +10 | +4 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 80 | unch | +52 | +50 | -10 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -691 | -2 | -385 | -368 | -255 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -365 | unch | -197 | -179 | -328 |
| C5 as % WTI | 93 | +2 | +7 | +7 | -4 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
EIA propane stocks · week ending Fri, Oct 23
A 0.1 mb draw took US propane stocks to 105.7 mb, 11.3 mb (12%) above the five-year average and 0.0 mb above a year ago. Exports ran 2,233 kb/d (+201 kb/d w/w) against production of 2,894 kb/d.
US stocks 105.7 mb -0.1 mb w/w | Year ago 105.7 mb | 5-yr avg 94.4 mb |
Gulf Coast 65.6 mb PADD 3 | Midwest 25.2 mb PADD 2 | Exports 2,233 kb/d +201 kb/d w/w |
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · Full EIA report →
US propane stocks near parity with last year after four straight draws.
Christine Groenewold · RBN Energy · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
EIA data showed a 111 Mbbl draw in US propane/propylene inventories for the week ended Oct 23, bringing stocks to 105.7 MMbbl. Exports averaging 2.15 MMb/d since early September have erased nearly all of the prior 12.8 MMbbl surplus versus last year. The tight balance leaves limited buffer heading into heating season, especially in the Midwest. Read →
ONEOK lifts 2026 EBITDA guidance on record Permian NGL volumes.
Shale Experts · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
ONEOK reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $2.24 billion, up 6% YoY, and raised full-year 2026 guidance to $8.5 to 8.6 billion. Gulf Coast/Permian NGL raw-feed throughput rose 16% YoY. The company increased its 2026 capex budget to about $3.5 billion to capture growth from the recent Brazos Midstream acquisition and organic projects. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF surges past €100/MWh on Qatar LNG force majeure extension and EU storage at 75% full.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
95.47 | -4.9% -4.87 |
+239% | +207% | +47.1% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
31.16 | -4.9% -1.59 |
+239% | +207% | +47.1% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
32.36 | +2.0% +0.62 |
+237% | +191% | +7.8% |
EU gas storage · gas day Tue, Oct 27
EU gas storage is 75.0% full, 849 TWh in store, 14.6 points below the five-year average for this date and 7.9 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 61.7%.
EU full 75.0% +0.03 pts d/d | Year ago 82.9% | 5-yr avg 89.6% same date |
Germany 61.7% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF tops €100/MWh for first time since Dec 2022.
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Dutch TTF front-month futures briefly exceeded €100/MWh on Oct 28, the highest since the 2022 crisis, driven by low EU storage at 75% full, rising heating demand and persistent Middle East LNG supply risks. Prices have more than tripled this year as Europe competes with Asia for scarce cargoes. Read →
EU ministers meet on gas prices with storage at 75%.
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
EU energy ministers convene Thursday to address energy security as wholesale gas prices hit multi-year highs ahead of winter. Storage stands at 75% versus 83% a year earlier, with Middle East conflicts disrupting LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting prices to roughly triple pre-war levels. Read →
Equinor flags winter price spike risk on low storage.
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Equinor CEO warned that cold weather could trigger sharp gas price spikes this winter given historic-low storage levels and competition with Asia for LNG. Norway remains Europe's top pipeline supplier, but global tightness from Middle East disruptions dominates the outlook. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM flags tight supply with 61 GW offline; CAISO approves fast-track large-load rules; European spot prices surge on low renewables.
PJM warns of tight power supply amid outages
Senior Reporter, Infrastructure · TechTarget · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
PJM Interconnection reported more than 61,000 MW of generation capacity offline last week during mild October weather, leaving only about 66% of its fleet available as it prepares for winter. Over two-thirds of the outages were planned maintenance or construction, with the rest unplanned. The advisory highlights risks for data center interconnections and reliable supply in the 13-state region. Read →
CAISO approves fast-track large-load interconnection rules
Vedika Thorat · Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
The California ISO board approved new procedures to connect large loads such as data centers more quickly and reliably while meeting FERC requirements. The plan includes flexible interim interconnections until network upgrades finish and improved coordination to avoid cost shifts. CAISO will file the proposal with FERC by November 16. Read →
SPP issues Resource Advisory for East BAA on Oct 29
SPP · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
SPP declared a Resource Advisory for its East Balancing Authority Area effective Thursday, October 29, from 12 p.m. to 6 p.m. CT due to higher-than-normal outages and load/VER forecast uncertainty. The advisory raises awareness for operators but does not require public conservation. It enables earlier unit commitments to support reliability. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · European thermal coal holds at 148 to 150 USD/t highs since early 2023 on gas prices and supply curbs.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
145.85 | -0.3% -0.40 |
+49.7% | +57.0% | -14.2% |
| Newcastle $/t |
152.00 | -2.0% -3.15 |
+43.7% | +36.3% | -5.0% |
India thermal imports to rebound in October to 15.06mn t
Saurabh Chaturvedi · Argus Media · Sun, Oct 26, 2026
Kpler estimates October thermal coal imports at 15.06 million tonnes, the highest since May 2025 and up sharply from 11.29mn t in September, driven by record coal-fired generation of 86.27 TWh in the first 22 days of October and post-monsoon industrial demand. Power plant stocks fell to 19.93mn t, or about six days of cover, with many plants at critical levels. Buyers booked cargoes in late September/early October despite multi-year high prices, with Indonesian 4,200 kcal at $78.48/t fob Kalimantan. Read →
China coking coal supply shocks drove September rally above $300/t
Argus Media · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Australian premium low-vol hard coking coal surged above $300/t CFR China in September on reduced Chinese domestic output after mining accidents and safety inspections, plus constrained Mongolian exports from diesel shortages and a US mine outage. Sentiment has since turned cautious with prices retreating as Chinese buyers hold back amid weak steel margins and falling domestic coking coal prices; Indian buyers also remain selective. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Soybean flash sale and harvest pressure drive grains lower overnight as corn rebounds modestly.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
452 | +0.0% +0 |
+2.6% | +5.0% | -20.5% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
599 | +0.0% +0 |
+18.1% | +14.3% | -22.5% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,232 | -0.5% -6 |
+19.5% | +12.9% | -0.3% |
| Sugar | 19.36 | +0.1% +0.02 |
+29.0% | +35.6% | +0.5% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
287.5 | +0.2% +0.7 |
-17.6% | -26.7% | +40.9% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,462 | +0.1% +6 |
-9.9% | -9.8% | +115% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.25 | +0.1% +0.10 |
+21.4% | +19.8% | -32.1% |
USDA reports 120k mt soybean flash sale to unknown buyer.
Farm Progress · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Private exporters reported a 120,000 metric ton sale of soybeans for 2026/27 delivery to unknown destinations. The announcement comes amid ongoing U.S. harvest pressure and follows recent Chinese purchases, providing a modest demand signal for the oilseed complex. Read →
Arabica coffee hits 2.5-week low on better Brazil supply outlook.
Business Recorder / Reuters · Wed, Oct 29, 2026
ICE arabica coffee futures fell 2.6% to $2.8605 per lb, reaching a 2.5-week low. A weaker Brazilian real after the election and improved harvest prospects in top producer Brazil weighed on prices, with robusta also under pressure from rising Vietnam stocks. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · UAN28 retail prices surge 6% to $447/ton as Middle East supply risks and sulfur tightness lift the complex.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,716 | +1.2% +20 |
-1.9% | +4.4% | -30.5% |
| Egypt FOB $/t |
510.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
-11.3% | +17.6% | -36.8% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
480.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+17.9% | +14.3% | -41.6% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
436.25 | -0.1% -0.25 |
+12.8% | +14.7% | -40.0% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.7% | +18.9% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
UAN28 jumps 6% to $447/ton in DTN retail survey
Todd Neeley · DTN · Tue, Oct 28, 2026
DTN's latest retail survey shows UAN28 averaging $447 per ton in the third week of October, up $24/ton or 6% month-over-month, the only significant gain per DTN's 5% threshold. UAN32 rose 2% to $486/ton, potash 2% to $506/ton, anhydrous 1% to $987/ton, MAP 1% to $983/ton and DAP 1% to $939/ton; urea eased 0.1% to $674/ton. All but one product now exceed year-ago levels, with anhydrous up 18%, urea 13% and UAN28 7%, reflecting ongoing pressure from Middle East disruptions, sulfur shortages and China export curbs ahead of planting. Read →
Iran war squeezes Gulf urea, sulfur and ammonia exports
Gus Trompiz and Naveen Thukral · MillingandMillers.com · Wed, Oct 29, 2026
The Iran conflict has halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, stopping roughly one-third of globally traded urea volumes plus sulfur and ammonia flows from the Gulf, including output from Qatar's large facility. Argus estimates at least 2 million metric tons of urea production lost (about 3% of annual seaborne trade) from Middle East, India, Bangladesh and Russia plant shutdowns, with nearly 1 million tons of loaded urea stranded in the Gulf. Farmers face a second price surge in four years amid low grain prices, prompting some to cut applications and risk lower 2027 yields. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Copper holds near two-week highs on tight China physical supply and decade-high Yangshan premiums.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,531 | -1.2% -177 |
+17.1% | +29.8% | +50.6% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,575 | -0.0% -6 |
+14.8% | +36.4% | +52.7% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,134 | -0.7% -23 |
+5.3% | +20.0% | -0.3% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,437 | +0.1% +4 |
+14.4% | +24.9% | +9.5% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,687 | +0.4% +69 |
-7.4% | +3.5% | -20.1% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,160 | -0.8% -18 |
-2.0% | +2.2% | +8.2% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
51,171 | -0.7% -341 |
+21.8% | +44.7% | +33.6% |
Copper holds near two-week highs on tight China supply.
Business Recorder · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Three-month LME copper fell 0.31% to $14,432.50/mt but stayed near the prior session's two-week high of $14,517. Yangshan import premiums surged to $205/mt, the highest in more than a decade, while domestic Chinese premiums climbed to 1,085 yuan/mt as SHFE stocks plunged over 26% last week amid smelter maintenance. The tightness underpins prices despite potential US rate-hike headwinds. Read →
Rio Tinto opens $1.4B lithium plants in Argentina.
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Rio Tinto inaugurated the Sal de Vida plant and Fenix 1B expansion in Catamarca, adding 25,000 tpa LCE capacity via DLE technology after $1.4 billion investment. The projects, which started production ahead of schedule in Q2, form part of the company's push toward 200,000 tpa Argentine output by 2028. President Milei attended the ceremony on Miners' Day. Read →
Aluminium rises on tight LME supply and risk-on mood.
Mining.com.au / Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
LME three-month aluminium rose 0.58% to $3,105/mt amid low warehouse stocks and 3,500-tonne Asian withdrawals, pushing the cash-to-three-month spread into $27.64/mt backwardation. Most LME aluminium remains Russian-origin material that traders avoid. SHFE aluminium edged 0.11% lower to ¥23,715/mt. Read →
LME zinc rises as inventories fall further.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
LME zinc closed up 0.41% at $3,838.5/mt after LME stocks fell 1,300 mt to 165,650 mt. Domestic Chinese zinc inventory also declined 3,700 mt to 191,200 mt. The metal formed a bullish candlestick with moving-average support as bulls added positions overnight. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Iron ore futures hit two-year lows on weak China steel demand and rising Q4 supply from majors.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
90.6 | +1.6% +1.4 |
-10.0% | -7.3% | -11.9% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
403 | -0.4% -2 |
+2.4% | +5.2% | -49.1% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
418 | +0.8% +3 |
+1.5% | +2.9% | -47.6% |
Imported iron ore margin narrows to 1.03/mt on port slump.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Average imported iron ore margin narrowed to 1.03 yuan/mt from 9.79 yuan/mt as port spot prices slumped. 10-port stocks stood at 104.65 Mt on Oct 22 (down 490 kt WoW) with fines destocking while hot metal output edged up 6.4 kt to 2.3584 Mt/day; mills bought as-needed amid losses, futures and spot both weakened. Read →
Iron ore weakens on rising arrivals and port pressure.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Oct 27, 2026
DCE I2701 closed at 664 yuan/mt, down 1.12%; Qingdao port spots fell 5 yuan/mt. Global shipments rose 2.83% WoW to 33.45 Mt and China arrivals jumped 12.47% to 27.61 Mt in week to Oct 23; hot metal output dipped on maintenance to 1.753 Mt/day with further cuts expected, port stocks face renewed build pressure as mills limit purchases. Read →
Construction steel social inventory falls 3.07% WoW.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
SMM construction steel social inventory fell 130.5 kt WoW (-3.07%) to 4.1246 Mt as of Oct 29, with east China accelerating destocking while central/southwest regions slowed or stabilized. Long-process output rose as some mills resumed lines amid narrower flat-vs-long profitability gap; EAF rates fell in southwest on output curbs, demand softened with year-end deleveraging. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Fed hold with two dissenters for hike and oil moves drive gold and silver volatility post-FOMC.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,039 | -0.3% -13 |
-7.0% | +0.6% | +126% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
52.76 | -1.7% -0.91 |
-24.8% | +8.9% | +120% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,504 | -2.3% -36 |
-26.1% | -6.5% | +47.5% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
997 | -1.7% -17 |
-38.8% | -31.8% | -49.8% |
Gold tops $4,070, silver gains 1% post-Fed hold
Anshul · CNBC TV18 · Thu, Oct 29, 7:14 AM ET
COMEX gold futures traded at $4,073.70 per ounce, up 0.55%, and silver futures rose 0.99% to $54.195 per ounce in early Thursday trade after the Fed held rates at 3.75 to 4.00%. The rebound follows Wednesday pressure ahead of the decision, with investors weighing inflation outlook and West Asia developments. Read →
Gold, silver open weak post-Fed hold, volatile
Ramveer Singh Gurjar · Business Standard · Thu, Oct 29, 1:01 AM ET
Comex gold traded near $4,050 per ounce and silver near $53.30 per ounce on Thursday after opening higher then reversing, with MCX gold near ₹1,43,600 per 10 grams. Two Fed officials dissented favoring a 25 bp hike, lifting December hike odds amid a stronger dollar and elevated rates outlook. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Lynas posts record A$102.1/kg realized prices and 55% revenue jump on Q1 results, flags month-long Malaysia plant shutdown.
Lynas flags month-long Malaysia refinery shutdown for maintenance.
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths said planned kiln maintenance at its Kuantan, Malaysia refinery will last about one month in the December quarter and cut production. A two-week outage is also scheduled at its Australian mine for electrical works. The company expects stockpiles to meet customer orders without disruption. Read →
Lynas Q1 revenue jumps 55% to A$310.1m on record prices.
Reuters · Mining Weekly · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Lynas reported gross sales revenue of A$310.1 million for the September quarter, up 55% year-on-year, driven by an 88% rise in average realized price to a record A$102.1 per kg. Floor-price contracts now cover more than half of output; sales volumes fell 17.7%. NdPr production reached 2,082 tonnes. Shares rose 4.2%. Read →
Lynas Q1 revenue rises on record rare earth prices.
The Star · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Lynas posted A$310.1 million gross sales revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up 55% from a year earlier on record realized prices and higher production. Average selling price hit A$102.1 per kg. The company flagged lower production in the current quarter due to planned shutdowns at its Malaysian and Kalgoorlie facilities. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · US Gulf VLCC rates hit record $81mn lumpsum on Sinokor fixture amid Hormuz attacks and Red Sea reroutes.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.35M | -6.0% | +1679% | 224.7 | 30.65 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$429k | -22.1% | +621% | 120.8 | 16.48 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$209k | -16.0% | +299% | 122.7 | 16.74 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$329k | +9.7% | +1076% | 214.2 | 28.75 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$245k | +13.7% | +1080% | 228.5 | 25.67 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$62k | -3.1% | +74.6% | 89.7 | 10.55 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$78k | +8.3% | +273% | 106.8 | 14.34 |
Report of Oct 22, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
US Gulf VLCC hits record $81mn lumpsum on Sinokor fixture
Linh Nguyen · Argus via World Ports Org · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
A Sinokor-owned VLCC fixed US Gulf to Asia-Pacific loading late November at $81 million lumpsum, up $17.75 million day-over-day and far above the prior $22.5 million high. Chinese restocking demand and Mideast Gulf disruptions from Iranian attacks plus Red Sea threats drove the surge, with VLCCs facing longer voyages and STS delays. Read →
Capesize-led BDI rebounds 5.9% weekly as tanker ops hit war-risk premiums
Carlos Martinez · World Ports Org · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
BDI rose 5.93% week-on-week to 2,660, driven by Capesize index jumping 16.68% to 3,791 on mineral demand rebound. BDTI eased 7.44% to 7,152 but war-risk premiums hit 8% of vessel value and STS demurrage neared $1 million/day from Hormuz and Persian Gulf tensions. Read →
BDI slips Friday to 2,660 but gains 5.9% for week on Capesize strength
Emily Carter · World Ports Org · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
BDI fell 33 points or 1.23% to 2,660 on Friday yet posted a second weekly gain of about 5.9%, supported by Capesize rates up 16.7% for the week. Panamax dropped 8.9% weekly to 2,109 amid weaker grain demand and Atlantic tonnage buildup. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs hit new 9-month high near €89 as TTF natural gas tops €100/MWh for first time since 2022.
EUAs hit new 9-month high as TTF gas tops €100/MWh
Carbon Pulse · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
European carbon allowances resumed their advance Wednesday to a new nine-month high after shrugging off Tuesday's session. The move was driven by surging European natural gas prices that breached €100/MWh for the first time since 2022 amid colder weather forecasts and reduced wind generation. Tighter energy markets support higher power-sector emissions and EUA demand through year-end. Read →
UK fuels industry backs CBAM expansion to refineries
Carbon Pulse · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The UK government announced in its Autumn Budget that it will expand the incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to include refined products. The British fuels industry welcomed the move as a boost to competitiveness against imports facing the EU CBAM. The expansion aligns UK policy more closely with EU border carbon measures affecting emissions-intensive sectors. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · LME plans tokenized metals in Hong Kong warehouses for financing, tied to city's 5-year commodities hub push.
LME explores tokenizing Hong Kong metal inventories for financing
Reuters · Tue, Oct 28, 2026
The London Metal Exchange is exploring tokenization of off-warrant metal inventories held in its Hong Kong warehouses to enable financing and collateral use. The effort aligns with Hong Kong's five-year economic plan to strengthen its role as a global commodities hub. Early-stage work focuses on creating digital assets for metal stocks that currently lack standardized financing channels. Read →
CFTC sets Dec. 15 roundtable on 24/7 derivatives trading and tokenization
CFTC · Tue, Oct 28, 2026
The CFTC will hold a public roundtable Dec. 15 on the viability of 24/7 derivatives trading, covering overnight operations, tokenization, infrastructure, staffing and operational readiness. Chairman Selig emphasized a non-one-size-fits-all approach across asset classes. The session builds on the agency's summer request for comment on extending futures hours and perpetual contracts. Read →
Hong Kong-regulated XAUa tokenized gold launches on Sui with compliance controls
Simon Yoon · TokenPost · Tue, Oct 28, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
AlphaToken issued XAUa, a gold-backed token now live on Sui via the Permissioned Asset Standard, with each unit backed by physical LBMA-certified bullion held at Brinks in Hong Kong. Transfers require KYC eligibility checks embedded in the token policy; TBook handles on-chain distribution. The launch extends a prior Ethereum version and supports future compliant RWA vaults on the network. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Refining margins at record highs from Middle East and Ukraine supply disruptions drive oil major and refiner earnings beats and buybacks.
Shell posts $10.8B Q3 profit, lifts buyback to $5B
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 8:00 AM ET
Shell reported $10.81 billion third-quarter net profit, its highest since 2022 and above analyst estimates of $10.33 billion. Record refining margins of $42 per barrel and stronger LNG prices drove the result, prompting a hike in fourth-quarter share buybacks to $5 billion from $3 billion previously. Read →
HF Sinclair posts record Q3 profit, names new CEO
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 12:43 PM ET
HF Sinclair reported a record quarterly adjusted profit of $11.75 per share, beating estimates of $7.65, with refining-segment profit quadrupling to $2.43 billion on margins of $54.22 per barrel. The company named Steve Ledbetter as its next CEO effective January 1 amid sustained refining constraints expected through 2028. Read →
Phillips 66 posts record Q3 profit on refining strength
Nicole Jao · Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 11:02 AM ET
Phillips 66 posted record net income of $5.62 billion and adjusted earnings of $14.08 per share, beating estimates, with refining earnings surging to $6.06 billion on realized margins of $38 per barrel. Supply disruptions from wars in Iran and Ukraine tightened global fuel markets and boosted diesel and gasoline cracks. Read →
TotalEnergies Q3 profit surges 127% on high prices
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 7:15 AM ET
TotalEnergies reported a 127% year-on-year rise in third-quarter earnings to an adjusted $9.1 billion, beating estimates, on historically high refining margins and favorable natural-gas markets. The company plans $2.5 billion in share buybacks for each of the next two quarters and raised its interim dividend. Read →
Rio Tinto proposes 56% CEO pay rise to £9.8M
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Rio Tinto's board proposed raising CEO Simon Trott's target remuneration package by 56% to £9.8 million ($13.06 million) to retain talent in a competitive mining sector, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by Reuters. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump proposes easing methane rules for US oil and gas to cut costs and boost output.
Trump proposes easing methane rules for US oil, gas
Zahra Hirji · Bloomberg via Energy Connects · Tue, Oct 28, 2026
President Trump announced a proposal at a Lubbock, Texas rally to scale back Biden-era methane emission standards for oil and gas wells, pipelines and facilities, including repealing the Super Emitter Program. The EPA proposal aims to save $45 billion in costs and enable 210 million additional barrels of oil production. It targets rules on flaring, monitoring and leaks that the administration calls expensive and unnecessary ahead of midterms. Read →
US and Canada negotiate to ease steel and auto tariffs
Reuters · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
US and Canadian officials are negotiating relief from Section 232 tariffs on Canadian steel (up to 50%) and autos (25%), with sources indicating a possible deal before the November 3 midterms. Talks address the broader trade rift after stalled negotiations in August, though Canada reports limited progress and seeks concessions that work for both sides. Trump has signaled tariffs could rise further in 2027 absent agreement. Read →
Trump adjusts Canada Section 338 tariffs effective Oct 30
White House · Thu, Oct 23, 2026
President Trump signed a proclamation modifying the scope of 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods, removing items like plywood, paper products and machinery while adding valves, carpets and waste products. Changes take effect October 30, 2026, apply regardless of USMCA status and supplement existing Section 232 duties. The action responds to Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US exports and aims to protect American workers and commerce. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
UBS hikes Brent to $110 year-end from $100 on supply woes
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 28
Traders on X highlight UBS raising its Brent crude forecast to $110/bbl by year-end from $100, citing persistent Middle East supply disruptions, higher transport costs and uncertain inventory recovery. The bank also lifted its 2027 forecast to $95. The move is seen as a strong bullish signal amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Read →
Wheat heads for 9 straight red weeks, longest since 1997
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 28
Barchart and traders note wheat futures are on pace for nine consecutive weekly losses, the longest streak in over 29 years. Discussions link the selloff to abundant supplies and weak demand, with some joking about potential free grains or broader deflationary pressures in ags. Read →
Canada votes to maintain BC west coast tanker ban
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 28
Oil and tanker investors flag Canada's vote to uphold the west coast tanker ban. The decision limits export options for Canadian crude and is viewed as supportive for tanker rates and certain producers amid constrained logistics. Read →
SPUT uranium trust at 11.96% discount with $82m cash
X / @skysurfer75 · Wed, Oct 28
Uranium-focused accounts spotlight the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust trading at an 11.96% discount to NAV, with no recent purchases or new trust issuances and $82 million in cash. Traders discuss implications for physical uranium exposure and sector sentiment. Read →
Syria offers heavy crude cargoes for November loading
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 28
Energy tender trackers post Syrian Petroleum Company offers of 550k and 700k barrel heavy crude cargoes from Tartous. Details include specs, guarantees and closing dates, drawing attention from physical oil traders monitoring non-OPEC supply. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Currie: 2027 Brent near $100, structural not transient
Jeff Currie on CNBC Squawk Box Europe · Tue, Oct 27
Calendar 2027 Brent is holding around $97 a barrel. Watch/Listen →
Struyven: Precautionary buying and hedging keep prices elevated
Daan Struyven on Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast · Fri, Oct 23
Physical buyers are bidding up available crude amid growing downside risks to supply. Watch/Listen →
Madani details tanker attacks and shifting Hormuz flows
Samir Madani on Oil Ground Up podcast (Rory Johnston) · Sat, Oct 25
Iranian attacks on commercial shipping are reshaping global oil markets with extraordinary costs. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12%
unch
US-Iran ceasefire holds through December 31
28%
unch
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by December 31
13%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
14%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
77%
-2pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
6%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
16%
-5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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