Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Friday, October 30, 2026 · 49 stories
Prefer audio only? Listen here.
Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,680
-1.0%
-74 |
Dollar Index
101.72
-0.3%
-0.32 |
EUR/USD
1.1199
+0.2%
+0.0018 |
US 10Y Yield
4.989
-5.6 bp
|
Last price as of Fri, Oct 30, 5:34 AM ET. Click price for news.
Today's sponsor slot is open. Ask us about it →
Downey's Take
Brent $112.82, up $2.02 (+1.8%) and WTI $103.72, up $1.72 (+1.7%) on escalating US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure reviving supply disruption fears.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $4.27 (+4.4%) on winter storage drawdowns and lingering Middle East LNG supply uncertainty.
Silver down $1.52 (-2.9%) on hotter US PCE inflation data lifting December Fed hike odds and higher real yields.
Tin down $1477 (-2.9%) on cooling AI-related solder demand expectations after tech earnings misses.
Platinum down $42 (-2.8%) and Palladium down $26 (-2.6%) on the same hotter US PCE data raising rate-hike expectations and weighing on auto catalyst demand.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $4.27 (+4.4%) on winter storage drawdowns and lingering Middle East LNG supply uncertainty.
Silver down $1.52 (-2.9%) on hotter US PCE inflation data lifting December Fed hike odds and higher real yields.
Tin down $1477 (-2.9%) on cooling AI-related solder demand expectations after tech earnings misses.
Platinum down $42 (-2.8%) and Palladium down $26 (-2.6%) on the same hotter US PCE data raising rate-hike expectations and weighing on auto catalyst demand.
Drivers are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
BP posts record $8.5bn profit on energy shock
Malcolm Moore · Financial Times · Fri, Oct 30, 2026
BP reported adjusted profits of $8.5bn for the latest quarter, nearly quadrupling year-on-year and beating forecasts, as the Middle East energy shock boosted its trading and upstream results. Net debt fell sharply to $13.9bn, with the company now targeting remaining Deepwater Horizon liabilities. Read →
Iran tanker spills pollute UAE beaches
Financial Times · Fri, Oct 30, 2026
Oil slicks from Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz reached UAE shores, closing beaches in three emirates and threatening marine life. More than 100 vessels have been struck since the conflict began, with pollution spreading over large areas off Oman as well. Read →
Copper slips on tech rout and oil surge
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Copper on the LME fell as disappointing tech earnings raised doubts over AI spending and Brent crude hit its highest since April on Middle East risks. The moves prompted a retreat from risk assets after a mildly positive week for industrial metals. Read →
Rio Tinto pauses Oyu Tolgoi underground ops
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 29, 2026
Rio Tinto suspended underground operations at its Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia after a seismic event caused a rockfall that injured three workers. The company is conducting a safety review before resuming. Read →
Oil falls as peace talks offset conflict fears
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Brent and WTI crude fell about 1% as hopes for US-Iran peace talks via Qatari mediators eased supply disruption fears, though Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and shipping risks limited the decline. EIA data showed a larger-than-expected US crude stock draw. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Nat Gas 3NGL/LPG & Petchems 1Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 1Coal 3Agriculture 4Fertilizers 2Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 2Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 2Regulation & Government 5Social buzz 5Podcasts 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Hormuz tanker attack and Houthi strikes on Saudi refineries lift Brent toward $116 as supply risks dominate.
Cash WTI 110.30 +2.00 | Cash Brent 120.68 +2.31 | Cash Br–TI 10.37 +0.32 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
103.72 | +1.7% +1.72 |
+80.6% | +70.1% | +23.4% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
112.82 | +1.8% +2.02 |
+85.4% | +73.4% | +33.2% |
| RBOB Gasoline Nov 2026 |
3.197 | +0.4% +0.012 |
+83.3% | +56.9% | +29.8% |
| Heating Oil Nov 2026 |
4.764 | +0.6% +0.028 |
+120% | +91.5% | +86.0% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
30.55 | -3.8% -1.22 |
+93.1% +14.73 |
+24.1% +5.94 |
+57.3% +11.13 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
96.37 | -0.6% -0.54 |
+186% +62.64 |
+121% +52.84 |
+309% +72.82 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
52.49 | -1.9% -0.99 |
+141% +30.70 |
+69.8% +21.57 |
+152% +31.70 |
Hormuz tanker attack lifts oil on supply risks
Reuters · Fri, Oct 30, 2026
A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by explosive devices from a small boat, per UKMTO. Brent December futures rose $1.20 to $116.08 a barrel and WTI climbed $1.37 to $103.37, positioning both for their fourth straight monthly gain amid ongoing Middle East conflict. Read →
Oil falls on US-Iran diplomacy hopes
Farhan Rafid and Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
December Brent slipped 0.4% to $114.88 a barrel and WTI fell 0.8% to $102.00 as traders weighed US Vice President JD Vance's outreach to Iranian officials for peace talks. Persistent attack risks and escalation potential capped the decline. Read →
Exxon Chevron skip ADIPEC over security
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods and Chevron upstream president Clay Neff cancelled plans to attend next week's ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi due to security concerns tied to the regional conflict. BP and Equinor CEOs remain scheduled. Read →
BP Q3 profit hits five-year high on refining
Reuters · Fri, Oct 30, 2026
BP reported third-quarter underlying replacement cost profit of $8.46 billion, beating forecasts and marking its highest quarterly result in at least five years. Record refining margins from tight product markets drove the surge, with operating cash flow at $14.8 billion and net debt falling to $13.9 billion. Read →
Chart of the dayADNOC WEP pipeline map Oct 28via @LSREnergy on X · 77 likesMap and capacity details of new 48-inch ADNOC pipeline from Jebel Dhanna to Fujairah, 1.5 MBPD
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Mild weather and 80 Bcf EIA storage build push December Henry Hub futures below $2.95/MMBtu.
Cash Henry Hub 2.735 -0.030 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
2.918 | -1.2% -0.034 |
-20.8% | -29.2% | -43.7% |
EIA gas storage · week ending Fri, Oct 23
A 80 Bcf injection took working gas to 3,724 Bcf, 38 Bcf (1%) above the five-year average and 147 Bcf below a year ago.
Working gas 3,724 Bcf +80 Bcf w/w | Year ago 3,871 Bcf | 5-yr avg 3,686 Bcf |
Consensus – this week | Year-ago chg +74 Bcf | 5-yr avg chg +73 Bcf |
Source: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report · Full EIA report →
Cheniere raises 2026 guidance on strong US LNG demand.
Pranav Mathur and Curtis Williams · Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Cheniere Energy raised its full-year 2026 adjusted core profit forecast to $8.75 to 9.25 billion from $7.90 to 8.40 billion, citing higher LNG export volumes. The company exported 188 cargoes in Q3, up 15.3% year-over-year, with LNG revenue rising 41.8% to $6.1 billion. Middle East supply disruptions have increased buyer interest in US LNG, supporting Cheniere's volumes and prompting a dividend increase to 62.5 cents per share. Read →
QatarEnergy signs 20-year US LNG deal with Woodside.
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
QatarEnergy agreed to buy 3 million tonnes per year of LNG from Woodside Energy's Louisiana project for 20 years starting around 2030. The deal follows a separate long-term agreement with Cheniere and forms part of QatarEnergy's strategy to secure alternative supplies amid disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. QatarEnergy is now positioned as a major buyer of US LNG to hedge its own export challenges. Read →
EIA reports 80 Bcf storage build, inventories at 3,724 Bcf.
Energy Intelligence · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
The EIA reported net working gas inventories rose 80 Bcf to 3,724 Bcf for the week ended Oct. 23. The build exceeded the five-year average of 77 Bcf and analyst expectations, expanding the surplus over the seasonal norm to 38 Bcf. Stocks remain 3.8% below year-ago levels but sit 1% above the five-year average. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
Your ad here
One sponsor per issue, and nobody else
This is where a sponsor's block sits: room to actually say what you do, to the people who read this letter every morning.
Email us for target audience and the rates →
| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Propane exports and four straight EIA stock draws erase the surplus ahead of winter, lifting Mont Belvieu propane 0.1% to 107.6¢/gal.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.303 | +0.3% +0.001 |
+27.8% | +14.3% | -27.9% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.076 | +0.1% +0.001 |
+74.4% | +63.7% | -22.6% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.751 | +0.7% +0.012 |
+135% | +109% | +7.0% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.885 | +0.5% +0.010 |
+142% | +115% | +15.3% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.230 | -0.4% -0.010 |
+90.2% | +79.6% | +16.1% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 11 | unch | +12 | +12 | +3 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 81 | unch | +53 | +53 | -11 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -690 | +1 | -386 | -368 | -257 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -364 | +1 | -198 | -179 | -329 |
| C5 as % WTI | 90 | -2 | +5 | +5 | -6 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Enterprise lifts Permian NGL outlook, nears Houston LPG dock completion
Seeking Alpha / Business Wire · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Enterprise Products Partners reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion, up 16% YoY on record Permian gas processing volumes of 4.6 Bcf/d and NGL pipeline throughput. The company raised its 2025 to 2030 Permian wet gas and NGL production growth forecast to 34% from 23% due to higher gas-to-oil ratios. Its fully contracted 300 Mb/d Houston Ship Channel LPG export expansion is in commissioning and due online by year-end, lifting total capacity to 1.1 MMb/d and supporting higher 2027 export volumes. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF surges toward €100/MWh on depleted EU storage at 75% and persistent Hormuz LNG disruptions.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
102.20 | +4.4% +4.27 |
+248% | +215% | +49.2% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
33.54 | +4.4% +1.40 |
+248% | +215% | +49.2% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
32.04 | -1.0% -0.32 |
+234% | +191% | +9.7% |
EU gas storage · gas day Wed, Oct 28
EU gas storage is 74.9% full, 848 TWh in store, 14.8 points below the five-year average for this date and 7.9 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 61.6%.
EU full 74.9% -0.07 pts d/d | Year ago 82.8% | 5-yr avg 89.7% same date |
Germany 61.6% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF tops €100/MWh on LNG shortage fears
Ben Aris · bne IntelliNews · Wed, Oct 29, 2026
The Dutch TTF front-month contract crossed €100/MWh on October 28, up 3% that day and 38% since early October. Traders cite fears of winter LNG shortages from Strait of Hormuz disruptions that have throttled Qatari and other Middle East flows. Asian JKM also sits near four-year highs around $30/MMBtu as buyers compete for cargoes. Read →
EU storage at 75% lags historical averages
ACER / EU Reporter · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
ACER reports EU underground storage at 75% full as of October 21, below historical levels after a slow summer refill hampered by high prices and Middle East LNG disruptions. US LNG now supplies 30% of EU gas while Qatari volumes were negligible; the higher refill cost reached an upper bound of €27 billion. This low buffer supports the TTF rally as winter demand approaches. Read →
TTF nears €100 amid Gulf LNG blockage
energynews.pro · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Front-month TTF briefly touched €100/MWh on October 28, the first time since the 2022 crisis. The move reflects the partial blockage of Gulf LNG shipments through Hormuz plus record-low storage levels entering the heating season. Qatari liquefaction damage and delivery suspensions extend the supply tightness. Read →
JKM, TTF climb above $30/MMBtu on tight supply
Global LNG Hub · Wed, Oct 29, 2026
JKM reached high-US$31s/MMBtu and TTF US$30.8/MMBtu for the week ending October 23 on tightening LNG supply, Middle East tensions and colder winter forecasts. EU storage stood at 74.6% on October 23 with the first net withdrawal of the season recorded October 20; Norwegian field outages also supported European prices. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM tight supply and data-center load growth drive US power prices and capacity costs amid ongoing auctions and alerts.
Nord Pool Oct 30 prices swing sharply across zones.
progrunners.com · Fri, Oct 30, 2026
Nord Pool day-ahead prices for October 30 averaged as low as 23.9 EUR/MWh in NO4 and as high as 268.6 EUR/MWh in DK2, with a 244.6 EUR/MWh spread and peaks above 300 EUR/MWh in several Danish and Swedish zones. Hourly results from the SDAC auction show strong regional divergence driven by transmission limits and local supply. The volatility highlights ongoing scarcity pricing pressures in parts of the Nordic-Baltic market. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · India power-plant coal stocks hit critically low levels, boosting thermal import and e-auction demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
147.00 | +1.5% +2.15 |
+50.8% | +58.1% | -13.5% |
| Newcastle $/t |
155.20 | +1.7% +2.55 |
+46.8% | +40.1% | -3.0% |
JSW Steel flags $25/t coking coal price spike in Q3
Anuran Sadhu · Reuters via Mining.com · Fri, Oct 23, 8:05 AM ET
India’s largest steelmaker JSW Steel reported Q2 profit more than tripling to 52.79 billion rupees while warning coking coal costs will rise $25/t in Oct-Dec. CEO Jayant Acharya cited the spike on a post-earnings call and said the firm will shift toward cheaper domestic coking coal to offset margins. The move highlights persistent supply tightness in metallurgical coal amid recovering Chinese and Indian steel demand. Read →
Coal India pithead stocks plunge 49% in six months
SMM / Economic Times · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Coal India’s pithead inventory fell 49% to 66.58 million tonnes by end-September as H1 offtake of 384.2 million tonnes outpaced production of 321 million tonnes. Production slipped 2.5% YoY while dispatches rose 7.6%, tightening domestic thermal supply ahead of winter. The drawdown supports higher e-auction premiums and potential import needs for Indian power plants. Read →
Mongolia halts Tavantolgoi-Manlai-Khangi coal route
Mysteel · Wed, Oct 28, 18:40 ET
Road transport on Mongolia’s Tavantolgoi-Manlai-Khangi corridor to China’s Mandula border was suspended from 19:00 on Oct 27 for repairs after failing safety standards. The route carries significant volumes of premium coking coal; the halt adds near-term supply pressure to Chinese steel mills already facing domestic mine-safety constraints. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · USDA export sales surge lifts wheat while harvest and weak real pressure soy and corn.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
449 | -0.6% -3 |
+1.9% | +4.0% | -22.5% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
604 | +0.0% +0 |
+19.1% | +13.1% | -24.3% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,234 | -0.1% -1 |
+19.7% | +12.2% | -0.2% |
| Sugar | 19.52 | +0.3% +0.05 |
+30.0% | +35.3% | +0.8% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
286.6 | +0.4% +1.2 |
-17.8% | -26.9% | +37.3% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,459 | +0.1% +3 |
-10.0% | -11.3% | +113% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.44 | -0.1% -0.06 |
+22.2% | +19.8% | -34.5% |
Wheat rises on surprise USDA export sales high
Anthony Harrup · Dow Jones / Morningstar · Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
USDA reported 849,800 metric tons of 2026/27 wheat export sales for the week ended Oct. 22, a marketing-year high and above the 200,000 to 500,000 ton trade range. December CBOT wheat settled up 4.75 cents at $6.03¾ per bushel. Strong sales provide evidence that prices have fallen enough to attract demand despite earlier pressure from potential Black Sea supply improvements. Read →
Bunge beats Q3 estimates on soybean crush margins
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 10:37 AM UTC
Bunge Global reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.56, beating the $2.44 consensus, with soybean processing and refining net sales rising 5.4% year-over-year to $11.4 billion. Robust oilseed crush margins drove the beat. The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $9.25-$9.75 despite noting a complex global environment ahead. Read →
Grains mixed as wheat rebounds on exports
Cassidy Walter · Successful Farming / agriculture.com · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
December corn settled down 0.5 cent at $4.51¼ per bushel and November soybeans fell 3.25 cents to $12.34¾ amid ongoing U.S. harvest pressure and a weaker Brazilian real. Wheat turned higher on the strong USDA export sales and reports of Chinese buying interest, with December CBOT wheat up 4.75 cents at $6.03¾. Read →
Soybeans fall overnight on harvest and real
Successful Farming / agriculture.com · Wed, Oct 29, 2026
U.S. soybean harvest reached 79% complete as of Oct. 26, ahead of the five-year average, adding supply pressure. The Brazilian real weakened sharply after Lula da Silva’s election victory, boosting competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans. November CBOT soybeans fell 7.75 cents to $12.30¼ per bushel overnight. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · US retail fertilizer prices rise for fourth straight week, led by UAN28 up 6% to $447/t amid persistent Hormuz disruption.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,736 | +1.8% +31 |
-0.7% | +6.7% | -29.7% |
| Egypt FOB $/t |
510.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
-11.3% | +17.6% | -36.8% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
481.50 | +0.2% +1.00 |
+18.2% | +12.1% | -41.5% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
436.25 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+12.8% | +14.4% | -40.0% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
790.00 | -1.6% -12.50 |
+26.4% | +7.8% | +17.0% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Hormuz fertilizer transits remain zero in October; sulfur above $1,000/t hits ph
Kim Clarksen · Fertilizer Daily · Fri, Oct 29, 2026
Tracking data show no fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in September or October, versus roughly 20% of global nitrogen trade pre-conflict. Sulfur prices have more than doubled above $1,000/t, pushing phosphate prices up 25 to 30%; Mosaic has idled operations including its South Fort Meade site. Urea has held up better thanks to higher Chinese and US exports, but the sulfur bottleneck remains acute with no equivalent workaround. Read →
ETG eyes $2B, 1.5Mt/yr urea plant in northern Mozambique using TotalEnergies LNG
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Africa’s largest fertilizer trader ETG plans a 1.5-million-ton-per-year urea facility in northern Mozambique, one of the continent’s largest, fed by gas from TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project. The move responds to Iran-war supply disruptions that have elevated prices and exposed reliance on Middle East exports. A final decision awaits a feasibility study and gas-pricing talks, with output years away. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · LME zinc extends five-day winning streak on ex-China destocking as copper slips on AI/tech selloff and oil rally.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,401 | -1.1% -155 |
+16.0% | +29.0% | +48.4% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,518 | -0.4% -57 |
+14.3% | +35.9% | +52.1% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,152 | +0.6% +18 |
+5.9% | +20.7% | +0.3% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,443 | +0.2% +6 |
+14.6% | +25.1% | +9.8% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,614 | -0.5% -73 |
-7.8% | +3.0% | -20.5% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,162 | +0.1% +3 |
-1.9% | +2.3% | +8.4% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
49,694 | -2.9% -1,477 |
+18.3% | +40.5% | +29.8% |
LME zinc posts five-day winning streak on ex-China destocking
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Oct 30, 2026
LME zinc closed up 0.06% at $3,873/mt after touching $3,899.5/mt, extending gains for a fifth straight session. LME zinc stocks fell 1,950 mt to 162,675 mt while Chinese inventories dropped 7,900 mt to 183,300 mt. Persistent ex-China inventory drawdowns and backwardation structure lifted the price center amid steady spot demand. Read →
Boliden Q3 profit jumps 77% on higher prices
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 12:34 PM UTC
Swedish miner Boliden reported Q3 adjusted operating profit of SEK 4.90 billion, up 77% YoY, as higher copper and zinc prices offset disruptions and costs. Mines delivered strong output while smelters benefited from metal and acid prices despite lower treatment charges; CEO noted growing consensus on a new copper price floor. Read →
China Yangshan copper premium hits record high
Mining.com.au / Fastmarkets via Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
The Yangshan copper import premium surged to $205/mt on Oct 28, its highest in over a decade per Fastmarkets data. Tight Chinese physical supply from smelter maintenance and low SHFE stocks, plus US tariff-driven stockpiling elsewhere, drove the spike even as global refined surpluses are forecast. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures rose 1.49% to 682 yuan/mt on port destocking and freight support amid thin mill buying.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
89.5 | -1.2% -1.1 |
-11.1% | -8.4% | -13.0% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
404 | +0.2% +1 |
+2.5% | +5.4% | -49.0% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
418 | -0.1% -0 |
+1.4% | +2.8% | -47.7% |
Vale Q3 iron ore output misses estimates at 88.35 Mt.
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Vale produced 88.35 million metric tons of iron ore in Q3, below the 91.64 Mt consensus and down 6% YoY, due to lower run-of-mine availability at Serra Norte in northern Brazil. Sales rose slightly YoY while realized prices fell 10% to $85.10/t amid higher diesel, bunker and freight costs. The miss comes as global supply pressure weighs on prices and Chinese demand stays muted. Read →
SGX iron ore nears lowest month-end close since 2022.
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 30, 2026
Singapore iron ore futures slipped near $91/t on Friday, on track for the lowest October month-end close since 2022 after losing over 2% in the month. Ample global shipments and Chinese port stockpiles up 15% YoY capped buying as steel mills face thin margins and seasonal demand weakness. Prices have now declined in seven of the last eight months since the May peak above $111/t. Read →
DCE iron ore futures rise 1.49% on port destocking.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
The most-traded DCE I2701 contract closed at 682 yuan/mt, up 1.49%, with Qingdao spot prices rising 5 to 8 yuan/mt as 10-port inventories fell 490,000 mt WoW on coarse fines destocking. Brazil-to-China freight rose $0.5/mt to $34.17/mt, adding landed-cost support while hot-metal output rebounded slightly from maintenance restarts. Mills bought only as needed and spot trade stayed thin amid looming Hebei environmental curbs. Read →
Fortescue refuses rushed China iron ore deal.
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Fortescue executives said any deal with China’s state buyer CMRG must safeguard both the company’s and Australia’s long-term interests and that it will not cave to unfavorable demands. The miner remains the only major without a multiyear contract after Rio Tinto settled, leaving Fortescue exposed to potential year-end production adjustments if talks drag. SGX 61% Fe prices sat near $90/t after the Rio resolution removed some supply-risk premium. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Hot US inflation data and Fed hike odds lift yields, hammering gold, silver and platinum prices.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,001 | -0.7% -30 |
-7.8% | +0.1% | +123% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
50.87 | -2.9% -1.52 |
-27.5% | +6.0% | +111% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,452 | -2.8% -42 |
-28.6% | -7.5% | +36.2% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
979 | -2.6% -26 |
-39.9% | -32.3% | -52.5% |
Gold and silver futures settle lower after GDP print
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Comex gold settled down 0.5% at $4,017.70/oz and silver fell 2.4% to $52.191/oz. Stronger-than-expected US GDP and persistent oil-driven inflation kept December rate-hike odds elevated. Elevated yields and a stronger dollar weighed on both metals. Read →
Platinum plunges as sticky inflation hits prices
Shanghai Metals Market · Fri, Oct 30, 2026
Platinum futures on GFEX dropped sharply after September PCE data showed headline inflation at 3.6% YoY, up from 3.4%. Palladium also declined. Sticky inflation reinforced rate-hike expectations, pressuring the platinum-group metals complex. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Lynas flags one-month Malaysia plant shutdown and two-week Australian mine outage amid record Q1 prices and production.
Lynas revenue jumps 55% on record prices despite volume drop
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Lynas reported gross sales revenue of A$310.1 million for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up 55% year-on-year, with average selling price hitting a record A$102.1/kg (up 88%) due to stronger market pricing, bundled light/heavy rare earth sales, and floor-price contracts covering over half its output. NdPr production reached a quarterly record of 2,082 tonnes. Sales volumes fell 17.7% but higher prices and non-Chinese supply demand offset the decline. Read →
Malaysia approves first raw rare earth export for US research
Bloomberg / Reuters · Mon, Oct 27, 2026
Malaysia's Department of Mineral and Geoscience approved the first conditional export of unprocessed rare earth carbonate under eased October guidelines, with a US-majority-owned startup DTEC permitted to ship up to 700 tonnes (first 30 tonnes imminent) to the US for R&D and separation testing. The move tests Malaysia's 16.1 million tonne resource base and aims to attract foreign processing investment while maintaining conditions for local value-add. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Capesize surge lifts Baltic Dry Index to two-week high at 2,712 as Chinese steel output rises.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.35M | -6.0% | +1679% | 224.7 | 30.65 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$429k | -22.1% | +621% | 120.8 | 16.48 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$209k | -16.0% | +299% | 122.7 | 16.74 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$329k | +9.7% | +1076% | 214.2 | 28.75 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$245k | +13.7% | +1080% | 228.5 | 25.67 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$62k | -3.1% | +74.6% | 89.7 | 10.55 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$78k | +8.3% | +273% | 106.8 | 14.34 |
Report of Oct 22, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
Baltic Dry Index rises to 2,712 on Capesize jump.
Vishak Mathew · Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 6:12 PM ET
The Baltic Exchange main sea freight index rose 60 points or 2.26% to 2,712, its highest since October 13. Capesize rates climbed 204 points or 5.25% to 4,090 with daily earnings up $1,850 to $33,592, supported by firmer iron ore futures and higher Chinese steel mill hot metal output. Read →
63% of Asia-Europe capacity now uses Suez Canal.
SeaNews · Fri, Oct 30
As of mid-October, 63% of capacity on Far East-Europe routes by top ten carriers transits the Suez Canal and Red Sea, up from lower levels earlier. Alphaliner data shows 24 of 46 services using the route with 5.5 million TEU, or 63% of 8.7 million TEU deployed. Read →
US shipper spending surges 32% on diesel and driver shortages.
Lisa Baertlein · Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 6:52 PM ET
US shippers paid the most to move freight since 2021 in Q3, with spending up 32.1% year-over-year amid diesel prices above $6 per gallon from Iran-related tensions and fewer truck drivers after immigration enforcement. National shipment volumes rose just 0.5%. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs hold near 9-month highs near €89 as natural gas prices and energy correlation drive buying.
UK plans CBAM expansion to petrol, diesel and jet fuel
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 5:02 PM ET
UK Treasury budget documents confirm plans to consult on adding refined oil products including petrol, diesel and jet fuel to the 2027 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The move aims to protect domestic refineries from carbon leakage and support decarbonisation while maintaining industrial capability. It broadens the UK CBAM beyond initial sectors like steel and cement, potentially raising costs for importers and affecting fuel supply chains. Read →
CCAs below $33, WCAs retreat after $40 test
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Oct 29, 9:37 PM ET
California Carbon Allowances traded back below $33 amid muted activity ahead of the November Q4 auction. Washington Carbon Allowances pulled back after touching $40 earlier in the week. The linked WCI markets remain in a narrow range with limited immediate catalysts. Read →
EUAs reach new 9-month high near €89
Alessandro Vitelli · Carbon Pulse · Thu, Oct 29, 5:13 PM ET
EU carbon allowance prices fluctuated with energy markets on Thursday but posted a marginal daily gain and extended the recent advance to a fresh nine-month high. Strong correlation with natural gas and power prices, plus geopolitical and weather factors, underpinned buying. The Dec 2026 contract traded near €89. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Injective testnet options on gold, silver, WTI and indices drive fresh on-chain commodity derivatives momentum.
Injective launches testnet options on gold, silver, WTI and indices
Simon Yoon · TokenPost · Tue, Oct 28, 2026
Injective launched six fully USDC-collateralized European-style options markets on testnet covering gold, silver, WTI crude, US500, US Tech 100 and its SICI AI-compute index. Writers lock maximum payout collateral upfront, eliminating margin calls and liquidation risk for sellers. The rollout expands Injective’s RWA derivatives suite days after its SICI perpetual launch and targets hedging for commodities and equity exposure onchain. Read →
Hong Kong-regulated XAUa tokenized gold launches on Sui
Kaye Quema · Crypto Briefing · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
AlphaToken issued XAUa, a 1:1 physical gold-backed token held in Hong Kong, on Sui via the Permissioned Asset Standard. TBook handles on-chain distribution with built-in compliance checks that reject non-eligible transfers. The launch adds a regulated, permissioned tokenized gold product to Sui’s RWA ecosystem. Read →
Breakout lists gold at 5x leverage, halves RWA fees
John Chen · Crypto Briefing · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Breakout added gold (GOLD) perpetual exposure at up to 5x leverage with a $500,000 position cap and cut trading fees on all RWA markets from 0.04% to 0.02%. The platform already offers Brent crude, natural gas and copper alongside equity indices, all tradable 24/7 without tokenized ownership of the underlying. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Major oil producers post record Q3 profits on refining margins at multi-year highs amid Middle East supply disruptions.
TotalEnergies posts $9.1 billion Q3 adjusted profit, doubles buybacks.
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 7:15 AM ET
TotalEnergies reported third-quarter adjusted net income of $9.1 billion, up 127% from a year earlier and above the $8.3 billion consensus. Refining and chemicals delivered a record $3.6 billion as margins hit $33.20 per barrel and throughput rose nearly 10%. The company reiterated $2.5 billion in share buybacks for Q4 and added another $2.5 billion for Q1 2027. Read →
TotalEnergies buys 25% stake in 26 Chevron US Gulf leases.
TotalEnergies · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
TotalEnergies acquired a 25% working interest in 26 Chevron-operated exploration leases in the US Gulf, including 24 blocks in Green Canyon and two in Walker Ridge. Chevron took a 75% operated interest in two adjacent leases from TotalEnergies. The deal expands the companies' joint portfolio and complements TotalEnergies' existing stakes in producing assets such as Ballymore and Anchor. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Russia extends diesel export ban with quotas to meet US deal, quadrupling November shipments to 2M tons.
Russia extends diesel export ban with quotas for US deal.
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Russia will keep its diesel export ban in place until year-end while issuing quotas to some refiners to fulfill commitments under the Trump-Putin diesel supply agreement. Quotas will rise to 2 million metric tons in November, or roughly 0.5 million barrels per day. The policy maintains domestic supply controls amid earlier shortages while enabling exports. Read →
Russian diesel tanker reroutes to US Atlantic coast.
Reuters · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
The tanker Leruo, carrying Russian diesel, altered its destination from Brazil to the US Atlantic coast per LSEG shipping data. This follows the partial lifting of Russia's export ban under the US-Russia diesel deal. The move signals increasing shipments toward American markets despite lingering EU and UK embargoes. Read →
US waives Jones Act for 60 days on fuel and fertilizer.
World Ports Organization · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The Trump administration issued a 60-day Jones Act waiver to allow foreign-flagged vessels to deliver oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and coal amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. The waiver aims to ease domestic fuel and agricultural input shortages. It covers vital resources moving to US ports through mid-November. Read →
Trump waives Russia energy tariffs under Graham Act.
Margaret Spiegelman · Inside U.S. Trade · Sun, Oct 19, 2026
President Trump issued an executive order waiving new tariffs of up to 100% on top buyers of Russian oil and gas and 500% on Russian goods under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. The waiver cites US national interests and remains in effect until further determination. It spares major importers like India from immediate duties while monitoring continues. Read →
China suspends critical minerals export ban to US.
Morgan Downey's Commodity News · Sun, Oct 19, 2026
China's commerce ministry suspended its outright ban on gallium, germanium, and antimony exports to the United States, effective through November 27, 2026. The suspension follows prior licensing controls on these dual-use minerals used in semiconductors and defense applications. Trade volumes had already been minimal due to earlier restrictions. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Ukraine strikes major Russian refinery, fires reported
X / multiple traders · Fri, Oct 30
Traders on X are sharing footage and reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Samara, with multiple fires at processing units. The facility processes up to 8.5M tons/year of oil for civilian, ag and military fuels. Renewed attacks signal escalation in energy infrastructure targeting amid ongoing conflict. Read →
Brent nears $117 amid Houthi strikes, Hormuz fears
X / multiple traders · Fri, Oct 30
#OOTT traders note Brent at $116 and WTI $103 after claims of Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities and unverified Iran tanker incidents in Hormuz. BP reports strong refining profits; Russia extends diesel export ban. OPEC+ meeting Sunday adds to volatility as monthly gains extend. Read →
Refinery issues drive diesel cracks higher
X / @faaaal · Fri, Oct 30
#OOTT account highlights shipping costs, transport and refinery constraints pushing NWE gasoil cracks to $71. Daily diesel price tracking shared ahead of EIA data. Traders link bottlenecks to higher rates amid supply disruptions. Read →
Uranium hits highest price in 8 months
X / multiple traders · Thu, Oct 29
Traders note uranium spot prices surging to the highest in over 8 months, with divergence from uranium miners. Discussions tie supply concerns and nuclear demand to geopolitical tensions including Iran/IAEA issues. Read →
r/oil megathread tracks Hormuz blockade, strikes
r/oil · Fri, Oct 30
r/oil megathread focuses on US blockade of Strait of Hormuz, tanker attacks, missile hits and Iran retaliation. Retail traders discuss oil panic, refinery strikes and price spikes from Middle East escalation. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Ed Morse on energy price risks, refineries
Upside and downside risks to energy prices as well as refinery concerns remain elevated. Watch/Listen →
Mike McGlone on grains, oil, metals
Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence) on BNN Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 27
Grains lower with wheat down 8%, corn and soybeans also down. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
11%
-1pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through December 31
25%
-3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by December 31
24%
+13pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
14%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
73%
-2pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
7%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
6%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
14%
-6pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Paid listings · list your event
Commodity & Energy Trading Week APAC · Mar 3-4 · Singapore
Commodity Trading Week Europe · May 19-20 · London
Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe free.
The cash price of physical crude globally, real‑time live even on weekends.
Prism is Morgan’s service providing free real‑time cash prices for physical crude oil, refined products, freight, natural gas and more. See today’s prices.
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe