Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Monday, October 19, 2026 · 51 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,743
+0.5%
+39 |
Dollar Index
101.93
+0.09%
+0.09 |
EUR/USD
1.1216
-0.2%
-0.0028 |
US 10Y Yield
5.098
+0.9 bp
|
Last price as of Mon, Oct 19, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures; the dollar index, EUR/USD and the 10-year yield are cash. Click price for news. Dots under the energy tiles: the shape of the curve, cash to 1st to 2nd month, cash from Prism; under Dutch TTF, the first three contracts.
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Downey's Take
Crude down on US waiver of new Russia sanctions easing supply fears after Friday's late futures price rally. Trump’s pressure on Ukraine as well as Putin this morning requesting a peace summit with the US and China over Ukraine point to a final possible deescalation of that war.
Propane up $0.023 (+2.3%) on record US exports and seasonal heating demand.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $1.81 (+2.1%) on persistent LNG supply risks from the Middle East and low European storage.
JKM Asian LNG up $0.59 (+2.0%) on tightening Asian demand and competition with Europe for cargoes.
Isobutane up $0.036 (+1.9%) on tight supply and downstream demand.
Iron Ore up $1.4 (+1.6%) on stronger Chinese crude steel output and dip-buying after two-year lows.
Kicker: Saxo recommends long JKM versus TTF on persistent Asian demand strength and inter-basin arbitrage (Saxo Bank, Oct 15).
Propane up $0.023 (+2.3%) on record US exports and seasonal heating demand.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $1.81 (+2.1%) on persistent LNG supply risks from the Middle East and low European storage.
JKM Asian LNG up $0.59 (+2.0%) on tightening Asian demand and competition with Europe for cargoes.
Isobutane up $0.036 (+1.9%) on tight supply and downstream demand.
Iron Ore up $1.4 (+1.6%) on stronger Chinese crude steel output and dip-buying after two-year lows.
Kicker: Saxo recommends long JKM versus TTF on persistent Asian demand strength and inter-basin arbitrage (Saxo Bank, Oct 15).
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil rises on Ukraine refinery strikes, Mideast risks
Farhan Rafid and Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Fri, Oct 16, 5:00 PM ET
Oil prices rose Friday after Ukraine renewed attacks on Russian refineries, adding to concerns about persistent Middle East supply risks and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for December delivery settled up 3.7% at $109.86 a barrel, and front-month WTI rose 3.5% to top $100 for the first time in a month. Read →
Trump waives Russia energy sanctions to ease diesel costs
Dave Lawler and Joseph Pisani · Wall Street Journal · Fri, Oct 16
President Trump halted implementation of most sanctions that were to be imposed on Russia under a bipartisan bill he signed last month, drawing criticism from lawmakers including some of his allies. The move is part of a pivot toward courting Moscow as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine and keep energy prices under control ahead of the midterm elections. Read →
Trump waives Russia tariffs, sanctions under Graham Act
Bloomberg · Sat, Oct 17
President Donald Trump waived massive tariffs linked to Russian energy exports mandated in a law he signed last month, as the measures complicated his push to lower diesel prices ahead of the US midterm elections. Trump invoked a waiver clause under the Graham Act, which codified and expanded sanctions targeting Moscow. Read →
Brent tops $110 on Mideast, Russia supply fears
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 16
Brent oil hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May as prospects for imminent supply relief dwindle, prompting traders to ramp up bets on higher prices ahead of the weekend. Brent rose 3.7% as bullish sentiment crystallized amid reports of ongoing conflict in major export centers and tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure. Read →
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In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 5US Natural Gas 4Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 1Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 1Coal 2Agriculture 3Fertilizers 2Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 1Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 4Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Trump's Russia sanctions waiver and diesel export deal drive oil prices lower Monday, with Brent down 1.8% to $108/bbl.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 101.01 | -0.4% -0.40 |
+70.7% | +70.4% | +18.2% |
| Brent | 108.37 | -1.4% -1.49 |
+78.1% | +77.6% | +27.4% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.181 | -1.7% -0.054 |
+81.3% | +68.9% | +24.9% |
| Heating Oil | 4.803 | -2.0% -0.096 |
+118% | +111% | +80.9% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
32.59 | -5.5% -1.88 |
+125% +18.08 |
+64.6% +12.79 |
+51.8% +11.12 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
100.70 | -3.5% -3.65 |
+204% +67.53 |
+178% +64.52 |
+287% +74.69 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
55.29 | -4.3% -2.47 |
+167% +34.56 |
+119% +30.03 |
+141% +32.31 |
Oil falls as Trump waives Russia sanctions, easing supply fears
Farhan Rafid · Dow Jones / Morningstar · Mon, Oct 19, 2026, 3:42 AM ET
December Brent crude futures fell 1.8% to $107.86/bbl and WTI dropped 1.7% to $97.37/bbl Monday after President Trump signed an executive order Friday waiving sanctions and tariffs under the new Graham Act targeting Russia. The waiver follows a diesel export deal with Moscow and could boost Russian fuel supplies to global markets. Persistent Middle East tensions, including Houthi attacks and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, limited further downside. Read →
Oil slips on Trump Russia sanctions waiver boosting fuel supply hopes
The Business Times · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Brent traded near $108/bbl Monday after jumping nearly 4% on Friday, as traders weighed signs of recovering Middle East crude flows against Trump's waiver of sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy shipments. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Persian Gulf oil flows had recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, though refined product shipments remain constrained. The move follows a Trump-Putin diesel export deal aimed at easing global tightness. Read →
Brent dips 1.6% to $108 on Trump Russia sanctions waiver
The Economic Times · Mon, Oct 19, 2026, 7:50 AM IST
Brent futures dropped $1.80 or 1.64% to $108.06/bbl Monday after settling at their highest since May 19 on Friday, while WTI fell 53 cents to $100.88/bbl. Trump signed an executive order Friday suspending key sanctions under the Graham Act, potentially paving the way for higher Russian fuel exports following a diesel deal with Putin. Intensified attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East tensions had driven Friday's gains. Read →
Trump waives new Russia sanctions to aid Ukraine peace push
Alan Rappeport · The New York Times · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
President Trump signed an executive order Friday night exempting Russia from a new sanctions measure Congress passed last month under the Graham Act. The waiver offers an economic lifeline to Putin as the US seeks Russian help to lower global diesel and gasoline prices ahead of midterms. It follows Treasury's temporary lift of sanctions on Russian diesel exports and has drawn criticism from Ukraine and some lawmakers. Read →
Oil tumbles on Trump waiver of Russia sanctions and tariffs
Florence Tan · Reuters · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Brent fell $1.98 or 1.8% to $107.88/bbl early Monday after settling at its highest since May 19 on Friday, while WTI was down over 1% near $100.25/bbl. Trump waived key sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act in an executive order Friday, following a diesel export agreement with Putin that could add Russian supplies to global markets. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president will assess the waiver's economic impact over up to 60 days. Read →
New to oil? Oil 101, a free guide.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · US natural gas futures slide to two-week low near $3.08 on mild weather and softer near-term demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.134 | +0.6% +0.018 |
-15.0% | -7.7% | -38.4% |
US natgas prices drop to two-week low on mild weather.
Trading Economics · Mon, Oct 19, 8:32 AM ET
US natural gas prices fell to $3.08 per MMBtu on Monday, extending prior session losses amid persistent mild temperatures that limit both heating and cooling demand. El Niño-related expectations continue to weigh on the winter demand outlook. LNG feedgas flows slipped to 17.6 bcfd so far in October from 17.9 bcfd in September, while Lower 48 output averaged 110.8 bcfd, down from August-September records. Read →
Pipeline force majeure pushes Nymex into $3.20s.
Energy Intelligence · Mon, Oct 19
Columbia Gas Transmission's second pipeline outage in three weeks bolstered US gas futures into the $3.20s, but the rally failed amid a balmy winter outlook. The force majeure highlights ongoing Appalachian supply constraints even as broader market sentiment turns cautious on demand. Read →
US natgas hits one-week high as output drops, LNG surges.
World Energy News · Mon, Oct 19
US natural gas futures reached a one-week high Monday on a drop in Lower 48 output over recent weeks and forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand through early May. Average flows to nine major LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April (contextual recent strength noted), with a tanker arriving at Golden Pass for its inaugural export. Read →
US natgas prices rise as LNG exports increase.
World Energy News · Mon, Oct 19
Front-month NYMEX natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Monday to $3.391/MMBtu on near-record flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected. Average gas flows to eight big US LNG plants rose to 16.2 bcfd so far in October, with Plaquemines hitting a record 3.6 bcfd on Sunday. Read →
New to natural gas? NatGas 101, a free guide.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Propane stocks drew 1.5 MMbbl to 106.4 MMbbl as record exports and Gulf Coast demand lifted Mont Belvieu prices.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.299 | -0.4% -0.001 |
+26.1% | +11.8% | -30.8% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.048 | +2.3% +0.023 |
+69.8% | +63.7% | -29.1% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.708 | +1.5% +0.025 |
+129% | +110% | +4.5% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.897 | +1.9% +0.036 |
+144% | +123% | +15.9% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.205 | +1.4% +0.031 |
+88.1% | +80.7% | +14.6% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 9 | unch | +10 | +5 | unch |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 76 | +2 | +48 | +43 | -25 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -688 | -19 | -384 | -379 | -262 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -374 | -6 | -207 | -191 | -383 |
| C5 as % WTI | 92 | +2 | +9 | +5 | -3 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Golden Triangle Polymers ethane cracker nears startup
Michael Carmada · Argus Media · Sun, Oct 19, 2026
The $8.5 billion Golden Triangle Polymers ethane cracker JV between Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy is preparing for startup by late December or early January, the first new US Gulf Coast ethane cracker in over four years. It will add 2.08 Mt/yr ethylene and 2 Mt/yr polyethylene capacity, boosting ethane feedstock demand at Mont Belvieu. The project underscores sustained confidence in US ethane economics despite prior delays from pandemic, inflation and trade issues. Read →
New to NGLs? Commodities 101, a free guide.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF rises to €88 to 89/MWh on EU storage at 74% (15pp below norm) and persistent Hormuz LNG curbs.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
89.36 | +2.1% +1.81 |
+207% | +173% | -3.8% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
29.37 | +2.1% +0.59 |
+207% | +173% | -3.8% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
29.93 | +2.0% +0.59 |
+212% | +171% | -14.2% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sat, Oct 17
EU gas storage is 74.5% full, 844 TWh in store, 14.6 points below the five-year average for this date and 8.3 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 61.0%.
EU full 74.5% +0.16 pts d/d | Year ago 82.8% | 5-yr avg 89.1% same date |
Germany 61.0% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF hits highest since Dec 2022 on low storage.
The Brussels Times · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
The Dutch TTF front-month contract rose above €86/MWh Monday morning, its highest since December 2022. Storage stands well below year-ago levels as mild weather gives way to colder conditions. The surge reflects tighter global LNG supply after Middle East shipping disruptions. Read →
JKM and TTF rose last week on tight balances.
JOGMEC · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
JKM climbed to the high-USD 29s/MMBtu for December delivery while TTF reached USD 28.9/MMBtu. Both benchmarks gained on European winter supply concerns, reduced Norwegian flows, and Middle East geopolitical risks. EU storage hit 74.3% on Oct 16, down sharply year-on-year. Read →
EU storage at 74.5%, 15.9pp below five-year average.
GasRadar · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
EU aggregate storage is 74.47% full versus a 90.4% five-year average for the date. Injection momentum is weak at +0.16%/day with Germany and the Netherlands lagging. This structural deficit underpins the winter risk premium in TTF. Read →
JKM at $29.80/MMBtu with $1.34 premium to TTF.
LNG Price Index · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
JKM assessed at $29.80/MMBtu and TTF equivalent $28.46/MMBtu, leaving Asia at a $1.34/MMBtu premium. The spread keeps the Pacific diversion window marginally open amid competing winter demand from Northeast Asia and Europe. Read →
New to LNG? NatGas 101, a free guide.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM data-center demand drives capacity shortfall and emergency alerts as heat hits maintenance outages.
Abbott pauses new Texas data-center grid connections for audit.
The Markets Cafe (citing Reuters) · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Gov. Greg Abbott directed ERCOT and the PUC to audit 474 GW of interconnection requests, 90% data centers, before further approvals, citing risk to grid reliability. The queue exceeds five times ERCOT’s record peak load of 91,089 MW. ERCOT has delayed its Batch Zero large-load study process pending the audit and additional developer information on demand, water use, and impacts. Read →
New to power? Power 101, a free guide.
Coal
What's moving · China's September coal output fell 6.8% YoY while India plant stocks hit critically low 7.7-day cover, lifting thermal benchmarks.
China coal output drops 6.8% YoY in September amid winter supply fears.
Bloomberg · Sun, Oct 18, 2026
Chinese miners produced 385 million tonnes in September, down 6.8% year-on-year per statistics bureau data. Thermal power generation eased 1.4% month-on-month, but the drop heightens winter heating-season supply risks in the world's top consumer. The decline reinforces upward pressure on domestic and seaborne thermal prices ahead of peak demand. Read →
China Sept coal imports fall 6% YoY; import prices hit 33-month high.
Mysteel · Wed, Oct 15, 2026
China imported 43.37 million tonnes of coal in September, down 5.7% from a year earlier and up only 3% from August per GACC data. Average import prices reached their highest level since 2024 amid tight Indonesian supply and domestic inventory dynamics. The figures signal sustained import demand despite high prices, supporting seaborne thermal and met coal markets. Read →
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Wheat rallies on Russian frost damage and bargain buying while corn and soybeans ease on harvest progress and ample supply.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 474 | -0.1% -1 |
+7.6% | +11.9% | -10.7% |
| Wheat | 665 | +0.7% +5 |
+31.2% | +31.8% | -9.6% |
| Soybeans | 1,262 | +0.0% +1 |
+22.4% | +22.3% | +2.7% |
| Sugar | 20.60 | -1.2% -0.25 |
+37.2% | +31.0% | +9.2% |
| Coffee | 307.8 | +0.7% +2.1 |
-11.8% | -24.2% | +50.7% |
| Cocoa | 5,689 | +0.8% +44 |
-6.2% | -3.6% | +122% |
| Cotton | 80.40 | +0.5% +0.40 |
+24.6% | +24.8% | -25.7% |
Wheat rallies 3% on Russian frost damage and bargain buying.
Julie Ingwersen · Reuters · Tue, Oct 19, 2026
U.S. wheat futures jumped 3% Tuesday to $6.26 per bushel after the head of Russia’s grain union said frosts damaged 15 to 30% of winter grains, far above official estimates, plus Egypt booked 460,000 tons of Black Sea wheat. Soybeans and corn futures fell as traders awaited Wednesday USDA supply-demand reports and U.S. crops rated strong at 72 to 74% good-to-excellent. Read →
Soybeans rise on 558k-ton China sales; corn near two-month low.
Reuters · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
CBOT soybeans edged up 0.18% to $12.63 to 1/2 a bushel Monday after USDA confirmed 558,000 metric tons of private sales to China, bringing three-day total to 1.358 million tons. Corn slipped 0.21% to $4.73 to 1/4 near a two-month low on the second-largest projected U.S. harvest of 16.034 billion bushels; wheat rebounded 0.49% to $6.63 to 3/4. Read →
Arabica hits one-month high on critically low stocks.
Reuters · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
Arabica coffee settled up 10.8 cents or 3.7% at $3.056 per lb Friday, touching a one-month high of $3.1130, as ICE-certified stocks fell to 238,976 bags near a 27-year low. Traders worry Brazilian supplies will not replenish warehouses before December expiry amid El Nino risks to next year’s crop and stronger Brazilian real. Read →
New to agriculture? Commodities 101, a free guide.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Sulfur scarcity from Hormuz disruption and miner bidding war drives phosphate production cuts and fertilizer price pressure.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,694 | +1.4% +24 |
-3.1% | +5.7% | -43.1% |
| Egypt FOB $/t |
505.00 | +0.5% +2.50 |
-12.2% | +16.1% | -37.5% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
482.00 | +0.8% +4.00 |
+18.3% | +14.0% | -38.2% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
438.25 | +0.3% +1.25 |
+13.3% | +15.7% | -38.1% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.6% | +17.1% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
India secures under 25% of sought urea in latest tender amid Middle East supply
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 16, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Indian Potash Ltd. bought only 410,000 tons versus 1.7 million tons sought in its recent tender. Traders cite ongoing Middle East hostilities keeping costs elevated. The shortfall signals persistent nitrogen supply constraints for the world's top importer. Read →
UN warns stalled Hormuz fertilizer plan risks food crisis in Asia and Africa.
Panu Wongcha-um and Devjyot Ghoshal · Reuters · Wed, Oct 14, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
UN Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said a US-Iran deal is needed within weeks to activate a UN fertilizer transit plan. The strait normally carries a third of global urea and half of seaborne sulfur. Prolonged closure risks sharp cereal price rises and lower agricultural productivity. Read →
New to fertilizer? Commodities 101, a free guide.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · LME zinc settles up 0.23% to $3,682/mt as bears cut positions ahead of LME Week.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,503 | +0.1% +11 |
+16.8% | +31.6% | +39.6% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,551 | +0.4% +64 |
+14.6% | +36.2% | +52.5% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,089 | +0.7% +20 |
+3.8% | +18.3% | -1.7% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,389 | +0.7% +24 |
+12.8% | +23.1% | +8.0% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,442 | +1.2% +177 |
-8.8% | +1.9% | -21.4% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,141 | -0.1% -2 |
-2.8% | +1.3% | +7.3% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
50,156 | +0.4% +207 |
+19.4% | +41.8% | +31.0% |
Vedanta doubles SA zinc capacity to 500kt with $600M
Business Standard · Sat, Oct 18, 2026
Vedanta Zinc International inaugurated Phase II expansion at Gamsberg mine in Northern Cape, lifting annual capacity to 500,000 tonnes of zinc-in-concentrate. The $600 million project forms part of a broader $1.5 billion South Africa investment commitment and supports Vedanta's target of 3 million tonnes combined zinc output across India and South Africa. Expanded supply enters a market with tight concentrate terms and LME Week contract negotiations. Read →
LME zinc settles up 0.23% to $3,682/mt on Friday
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
LME zinc closed Friday at $3,682/mt, up $8.5/mt or 0.23%, after bulls stepped in following a dip to $3,665/mt. Weaker US dollar and reduced October rate-hike expectations provided support while SHFE zinc contract also edged higher. SMM notes zinc ingot social inventory declined in East and South China over the weekend as downstream offtake improved. Read →
LME copper rises 0.9% to $14,480/mt ahead of LME Week
Polina Devitt · Reuters · Fri, Oct 17, 2026
Benchmark LME three-month copper rose 0.9% to $14,480/mt on Friday, leading base metals higher on a weaker dollar and stabilising equity markets after Thursday's tech sell-off. Copper and zinc head into LME Week in backwardation, signalling nearby supply tightness, with US tariff-driven metal inflows cited as the main driver of refined copper tightness. Aluminium, nickel and tin also posted gains in the session. Read →
New to base metals? Commodities 101, a free guide.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Posco wins Australian approval for $3B low-carbon iron plant at Port Hedland as iron ore futures hold near two-year lows amid soft China demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
90.4 | +1.6% +1.4 |
-10.2% | -7.5% | -12.1% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
411 | +0.3% +1 |
+4.4% | +7.3% | -48.1% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
427 | +0.3% +1 |
+3.6% | +5.1% | -46.5% |
Australia approves Posco $3B low-carbon iron plant in Pilbara
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 19, 1:40 AM ET
The Australian government approved Posco Holdings' A$4.4 billion project at Port Hedland to produce about 2 million tons of low-emissions iron annually using natural gas initially. The plant targets first output in 2031 and requires final investment decision from partners including Marubeni and China Steel. It supports Australia's push to add value to iron ore exports while advancing steel decarbonization. Read →
Iron ore rebounds on dip buying and better steel margins
Reuters · Fri, Oct 17
Dalian iron ore futures rose 0.22% to 673.5 yuan per ton and SGX November contract gained 0.56% to $90.35 per ton after hitting two-year lows. Mysteel data showed profitable Chinese steel mills rising to 8% from 6.9% a week earlier, slowing hot metal output declines and spurring dip buying. Port inventories continued building while downside risks from low mill profitability persist. Read →
China steel exports top 10 million tonnes in September
Mysteel · Mon, Oct 19
China exported 10.49 million tonnes of finished steel in September, up 0.26% year-on-year per GACC data released October 14. Exports provide an outlet for mills facing weak domestic demand from the property slump. Rebar and HRC prices continued weakening in the week to October 16 amid falling coke costs. Read →
China crude steel output falls 2.9% YoY Jan-Sept
Mysteel · Mon, Oct 19
National Bureau of Statistics data showed China's crude steel production at 724.77 million tonnes for the first nine months, down 2.9% year-on-year. The decline reflects persistent weakness in property and infrastructure demand pressuring blast furnace utilization and hot metal output. CISA member mills saw daily output recover modestly in early October. Read →
New to steel? Commodities 101, a free guide.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold edges higher near $4,180/oz as traders pare October Fed hike bets after Warsh remarks and softer oil.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,190 | +0.2% +9 |
-3.5% | -3.9% | +137% |
| Silver | 57.63 | +0.6% +0.32 |
-17.8% | +12.7% | +141% |
| Platinum | 1,656 | +1.4% +23 |
-18.6% | +1.3% | +58.6% |
| Palladium | 1,131 | +1.1% +12 |
-30.6% | -25.4% | -46.3% |
Gold edges higher as traders ease Fed rate-hike bets after Warsh remarks.
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Spot gold rose 0.4% to around $4,181/oz in early Asian trade on Monday as markets lowered the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month to under 20% following dovish comments by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The move eases immediate pressure on non-yielding bullion from higher borrowing costs after last week's hotter US inflation data. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced, with lower oil prices providing additional support by tempering inflation concerns. Read →
Gold and silver rise as traders pare October Fed rate-hike bets.
Business Standard · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Gold and silver futures climbed on Monday with Comex gold near $4,200/oz and silver near $57.60/oz as traders scaled back expectations for a Fed rate increase this month following Warsh's remarks. Lower crude oil prices further supported the complex by easing inflation worries. Domestic Indian futures on MCX also opened higher, reflecting the firmer global cues. Read →
Gold edges higher on softer oil as Fed rate outlook stays in focus.
CNBC · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Spot gold gained 0.3% to $4,175.60/oz and US futures rose 0.4% as softer oil prices reduced near-term inflation pressures after a sharp prior rise. Traders assessed the Fed's path with October hike odds now around 16% and December still heavily priced in. Silver, platinum and palladium also posted gains amid the shift in sentiment. Read →
New to gold? Commodities 101, a free guide.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China suspends gallium/germanium/antimony export ban to US until Nov 27 while Shenghe sells 51% stakes in four rare-earth smelting units to state-owned China Rare Earth Group.
China suspends gallium, germanium, antimony export ban to US until Nov. 27.
Reuters · Sun, Oct 19, 2026
China's commerce ministry suspended the outright ban on gallium, germanium and antimony exports to the US that took effect last December, with the suspension running until November 27, 2026. The metals stay on the dual-use export control list, so licenses are still required, and the ban on shipments to US military end-users remains. The move follows the recent Trump-Xi trade truce and eases immediate shortages for US semiconductor, defense and other users of these critical minerals. Read →
Shenghe sells 51% stakes in four rare-earth smelting units to China Rare Earth G
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Shenghe Resources announced plans to transfer 51% equity in four rare-earth smelting and separation subsidiaries (Leshan Shenghe after stripping non-separation businesses, Quannan Xinziyuan Rare Earth, Jiangyin Jiahua New Materials, and Zibo Jiahua New Materials) to China Rare Earth Group Industrial Development Co. The transaction value is approximately RMB 1.6575 to 1.8105 billion based on a preliminary appraisal of RMB 3.25 to 3.55 billion; the units will be deconsolidated and accounted for under the equity method. The deal is limited to smelting and separation operations and advances state consolidation of China's rare-earth midstream sector. Read →
Pentagon eyes $725M loan to Energy Fuels for US rare earth processing facility.
Dan Dupont · InsideTrade.com · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital plans a $725 million loan to Energy Fuels Inc. to support a new US-based rare earth separation and metallization facility. Combined with private capital, the investment aims to advance a resilient domestic rare earth supply chain under President Trump's mandate. This targets heavy rare earth processing gaps outside China for defense and commercial needs. Read →
New to rare earths? Commodities 101, a free guide.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · BDI falls to 2,511 on Capesize weakness as VLCC rates retreat from records amid Hormuz attacks.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.43M | -3.0% | +1515% | 238.4 | 32.52 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$551k | -6.7% | +778% | 151.7 | 20.70 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$249k | -23.4% | +479% | 142.8 | 19.48 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$300k | +6.5% | +1280% | 196.5 | 26.38 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$215k | +4.5% | +1185% | 203.2 | 22.83 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$64k | +43.0% | +40.7% | 91.3 | 10.74 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$72k | -5.2% | +236% | 100.1 | 13.44 |
Report of Oct 15, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism, from the E.A. Gibson tanker report.
VLCC rates slip from records as demand eases post-attacks.
Reuters · Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VLCC rates on Gulf of Oman to China fell to WS776 from a record WS841 last week. Lower demand followed attacks in the Middle East and US signals on easing sanctions for shadow fleet tankers. Rates remain elevated near highs, supporting tanker earnings despite the pullback. Read →
BDI drops 1.3% to 2,511 on Capesize slide.
World Ports Organization · Sun, Oct 18, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index fell 34 points to 2,511, its lowest since June 30 and down 14% for the week. Capesize index dropped 73 points to 3,249 amid weak iron ore demand and ample tonnage. Panamax eased while supramax edged higher. Read →
Qatari LNG tanker transits Red Sea northbound.
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
A Qatari LNG carrier loaded in August is sailing north through the Red Sea toward Poland. The rare transit tests renewed Houthi risks after plant strikes earlier halted some shipments. It signals potential faster deliveries to Europe amid selective route reopenings. Read →
New to shipping? Commodities 101, a free guide.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EU leaders push faster MSR reform to curb EUA volatility while ordering ETS2 impact update amid energy price pressure.
EU leaders urge fast MSR reform, ETS2 impact review
Carbon Pulse · Sat, Oct 18, 2026
EU leaders at the European Council summit called for accelerated legislation on the Market Stability Reserve to reduce excessive carbon price volatility and reaffirmed the ETS's role in the energy transition. They also directed the Commission to update its ETS2 impact assessment on road transport and heating fuels due to rising energy costs, without agreeing to any delay. The moves keep policy focus on stabilizing the EUA market while addressing member-state concerns over costs. Read →
EU resists ETS2 delay, orders fresh impact assessment
John E. Kaye · The European · Fri, Oct 16, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Italy, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia pushed at the Brussels summit to postpone ETS2 until 2030 amid surging energy prices, but the majority rejected any timetable change. Leaders instead agreed only to an updated Commission assessment of ETS2 design and safeguards plus faster MSR reform to limit price swings and electricity cost impacts. The outcome preserves the 2028 start while highlighting ongoing political tension over carbon pricing. Read →
Czech-Slovak project readies 109k soil CDR credits
Carbon Pulse · Sun, Oct 18, 2026
A regenerative agriculture project spanning Czechia and Slovakia secured an A.pre ex ante rating from BeZero Carbon and expects to issue 109,029 soil carbon removal credits after first verification. The credits target the voluntary market as one of the larger recent soil-based removal offerings from the region. It adds near-term supply to a VCM segment seeking durable, high-integrity removals. Read →
New to carbon? Commodities 101, a free guide.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 perpetuals on crude oil and Nvidia drive RWA volume past crypto for the first time.
Ripple Prime launches RWA perps linked to Hyperliquid markets
Crowdfund Insider · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Ripple Prime rolled out perpetual swaps on more than 100 traditional markets including equities, ETFs, metals and energy, with direct linkage to Hyperliquid liquidity and RLUSD collateral acceptance. The product gives Wall Street clients 24/7 on-chain exposure to commodity and macro assets previously limited to crypto-native venues. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · New Hope's A$1.8B all-share acquisition of Malabar Resources drives coal-sector consolidation amid strong energy prices.
New Hope buys Malabar for A$1.8B in all-share deal
Bloomberg · Sun, Oct 18, 6:54 PM ET
New Hope Corp will acquire the remaining shares in Malabar Resources in an all-share transaction valuing the company at A$1.8 billion equity value. The deal gives New Hope full ownership of the Maxwell underground coal mine in New South Wales, approved for up to 8 million tonnes per year output near its existing Bengalla operations. Combined pro forma production targets nearly 19 million tonnes annually. Read →
Exxon sees $4.5B refining profit boost on margins
Reuters · Fri, Oct 16, 12:09 PM ET
ExxonMobil signaled higher refining margins in Q3 could add $4.5 billion to downstream profit versus Q2. Adjusted net income for the refining business could reach $8.5 billion, more than double the prior quarter, driven by supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and attacks on Russian refineries. Full Q3 results are due October 30. Read →
Ithaca Energy CEO Vasques to retire by March 2027
Reuters · Fri, Oct 16, 6:33 AM ET
Ithaca Energy said CEO Luciano Vasques intends to retire by March 31, 2027. The board has started a search for a successor to lead the company after its Eni UK integration and recent acquisitions. Vasques oversaw growth that nearly tripled the share price over three years. Read →
Kistos posts 9M pro forma EBITDA of $280M
Euronext · Mon, Oct 19, 2:00 AM ET
Kistos Holdings reported estimated pro forma EBITDA of about $280 million for the nine months ended September 30, including $75 million from Oman. The company signed an agreement on October 14 to acquire a 10% working interest in Norwegian licenses PL 169E, PL 956 and PL 956B from Vår Energi for $12.9 million upfront. Production is close to plan with new oil from Safi and AGW areas. Read →
Serica lowers 2026 output forecast on Triton delay
Investegate · Mon, Oct 19, 3:01 AM ET
Serica Energy reported 37,100 boepd production for the first nine months of 2026, up 44% year-on-year, with revenue of $905 million. Q3 output fell to 22,100 boepd due to maintenance at Bruce and Triton hubs. The company now expects full-year production to average just below 40,000 boepd as Triton FPSO restart slips to end-November, but maintains $450 to 475 million post-tax CFFO guidance. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump waives Graham Act sanctions and tariffs on Russia and its energy buyers, easing supply fears as oil slips.
Zelenskiy calls Trump Russia sanctions waiver wrong
Reuters · Sat, Oct 17, 2026
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Trump's decision to waive key sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act is wrong and helps only Russia. The executive order halts measures that would have imposed tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the largest importers of Russian oil or gas and 500% on Russian imports. Zelenskiy warned the move emboldens Moscow amid its war on Ukraine. Read →
Oil slips on Trump Russia sanctions waiver
Florence Tan · Reuters · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Brent crude futures fell $1.43 or 1.3% to $108.43 a barrel on Monday after Trump waived sanctions and tariffs that could have restricted Russian fuel exports. WTI crude declined 53 cents or 0.52% to $100.88 a barrel. The move follows a US-Russia diesel export deal and comes as Middle East shipping attacks have cut Gulf crude flows. Read →
Trump waives tariffs on Russia and energy buyers
Margaret Spiegelman · Inside U.S. Trade · Sun, Oct 19, 2026
President Trump issued an executive order on October 16 partially implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 by waiving new tariffs on Russia and countries buying its energy. The law had directed 500% tariffs on Russian imports and up to 100% duties on the top five purchasers of Russian energy products. The waiver provides temporary relief to buyers including India ahead of potential trade deal talks. Read →
Rubio: Trump takes 60 days on Russia sanctions
Reuters · Sun, Oct 18, 2026
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump will use up to 60 days to assess the economic impact of waiving sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act. The waiver, signed Friday, halts provisions due to take effect this week targeting Russian energy buyers. Rubio noted officials want time to evaluate effects on the global and US economies. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Mideast crude and products flows down sharply vs pre-war levels
X / multiple traders · Mon, Oct 19
Traders on X citing Trafigura's Rahim highlight Middle East crude flows down 4 to 7 mbpd and products down 4 mbpd from pre-war levels due to the conflict. The data underscores persistent supply disruptions in the region, keeping oil prices elevated despite some diplomatic moves. #OOTT community is actively tracking the impact on global balances. Read →
Damaged ST3 VLCC navigating to UAE repair without tug
X / @live_ais_com · Mon, Oct 19
Live-AIS.com posts satellite imagery confirming the damaged Marshall Islands-flagged VLCC ST3 in the Persian Gulf, moving under its own power toward UAE repairs. The post links to earlier confirmation of the vessel amid Iran-related maritime incidents. #OOTT traders are monitoring for any broader shipping or supply implications. Read →
Gold hits resistance at 4190 to 4200, pullback targets 4150 to 4145
X / multiple traders · Mon, Oct 19
Gold traders on X note strong resistance around 4185 to 4195 with potential pullbacks to the 4150 to 4145 zone if it fails. Sideways consolidation expected early in the week ahead of Fed data, with short-selling favored on rebounds. Discussions focus on technical levels amid uncertain macro backdrop. Read →
Copper shortage intensifies from AI, EVs and power demand
X / @business · Mon, Oct 19
Bloomberg highlights how surging demand from AI data centers, EVs and power grids is exacerbating a global copper shortage. A startup using microbes for extraction is cited as one innovative response. Traders note the structural supply challenge amid rising industrial needs. Read →
Oil dips on Trump Russia sanctions waiver and quiet Middle East news
X / multiple traders · Mon, Oct 19
Traders report Brent around $107 and WTI near $99 after Trump waives some Russia sanctions, with Middle East news quieting. One trader notes entering a short on the pullback. #OOTT sees 'no news is good news' for near-term prices but watches for renewed tensions. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Diesel stays expensive as crude eases
Daan Struyven on CNBC Squawk Box · Fri, Oct 16
Global diesel will remain expensive even as crude prices lower. Watch/Listen →
Hormuz hits ag commodities via freight, fuel
Greg Shearer & Tracey Allen on JPM At Any Rate podcast · Fri, Oct 16
Agricultural commodities converge on high freight rates, fuel costs and disrupted logistics from Hormuz. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12%
-2pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
81%
+3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
18%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
12%
-5pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
7%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
8%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
13%
-5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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