Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Oct 17, 2026
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Downey's Take on the Past Week
Brent $109.86, up $5.14 (+4.9%) and WTI $101.41, up $7.17 (+7.8%) for the week on US crude inventory draw of 8.6 million barrels far exceeding expectations as well as ongoing Hormuz tanker hits by Iran and Houthi activity in Saudi. Prices reversed earlier Friday declines as supply-risk headlines intensified into the Friday close. Crude price are up 50 cents on Saturday (see prismprice.com for weekend oil price changes).
JKM Asian LNG up $3.94 (+15.2%) for the week on Middle East geopolitical tensions tightening LNG supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $6.08 (+7.5%) for the week on colder weather forecasts, weak Qatari LNG deliveries and low EU storage levels.
Butane up $0.109 (+6.8%) and Propane up $0.065 (+6.6%) on record US exports to Europe and Asia amid surging demand.
Coffee up $18.6 (+6.5%) on critically low ICE-certified stocks near 27-year lows and concerns Brazilian beans will not arrive before December contract expiry.
Kicker: Citi favors the risk-reward for gold as it trades in the low $4,000 range with solid dip-buying interest. (Citi, Oct 13)
JKM Asian LNG up $3.94 (+15.2%) for the week on Middle East geopolitical tensions tightening LNG supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $6.08 (+7.5%) for the week on colder weather forecasts, weak Qatari LNG deliveries and low EU storage levels.
Butane up $0.109 (+6.8%) and Propane up $0.065 (+6.6%) on record US exports to Europe and Asia amid surging demand.
Coffee up $18.6 (+6.5%) on critically low ICE-certified stocks near 27-year lows and concerns Brazilian beans will not arrive before December contract expiry.
Kicker: Citi favors the risk-reward for gold as it trades in the low $4,000 range with solid dip-buying interest. (Citi, Oct 13)
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Hormuz tanker flows crashed to 2 to 6 million bpd with multiple attacks reported on tankers and ships in the strait this week.
The angle · Watch Brent front-month versus deferred; contango should steepen on slower visible Gulf exports.
US commercial crude stocks drew 8.6 million barrels last week, far larger than the expected small build amid lower production and imports.
The angle · Buy the front of WTI against Brent; the US draw narrows the WTI-Brent differential.
Diesel and gasoil cracks stayed elevated near or above $78 to 100 per barrel as Middle East and Russian refinery outages persisted despite IEA stock releases.
The angle · Own the gasoil crack versus Brent; backwardation in middle distillates should hold or widen into winter.
LME copper and base metals saw systematic CTA liquidation and net shorts flipped in nickel and aluminium amid macro selling.
The angle · Sell the front of LME copper against deferred; contango should flatten or move toward surplus as positioning unwinds.
USDA October WASDE lifted US corn ending stocks by 282 million bushels on higher yield and production forecasts.
The angle · Sell December corn against deferred months; the curve should flatten into ample US supply.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from On Chain 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$101.36
-0.05 -0.05%
vs Fri close $101.41
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$3.12
-0.00 -0.01%
vs Fri close $3.12
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, October 16, 2026
Charts: grey is the prior week, color is this week.
Dots under the energy markets and copper: the shape of the curve at Friday’s close. WTI, Brent and Nat Gas run cash to 1st to 2nd month, cash from Prism; Dutch TTF and copper run their first three contracts.
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude backwardation |
101.41 | +7.8% +7.17 |
+72.4% | +72.1% | +20.1% |
| Dutch TTF backwardation |
87.55 | +7.5% +6.08 |
+211% | +176% | -6.8% |
| Brent backwardation |
109.86 | +4.9% +5.14 |
+80.5% | +80.1% | +30.3% |
| Gold |
4,181 | -0.8% -35 |
-3.7% | -4.1% | +137% |
| Copper contango |
14,492 | -1.0% -152 |
+16.8% | +31.5% | +39.0% |
| Corn |
474 | -1.1% -6 |
+7.7% | +12.0% | -11.0% |
| Wheat |
661 | -1.6% -11 |
+30.3% | +30.9% | -10.3% |
| Soybeans |
1,261 | -2.4% -31 |
+22.4% | +22.2% | +3.3% |
| Nat Gas contango |
3.116 | -3.2% -0.104 |
-15.5% | -8.3% | -37.5% |
| Silver |
57.31 | -5.5% -3.36 |
-18.3% | +12.1% | +147% |
WTI Crude led the week. Start with Oil 101.
Macro this week
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Fut |
7,704 | -2.0% -156 |
+11.8% | +13.7% | +72.1% |
| Dollar Index |
101.78 | -0.4% -0.43 |
+3.6% | +3.2% | +8.3% |
| EUR/USD |
1.1221 | +0.1% +0.0008 |
-4.5% | -3.7% | -3.2% |
| US 10Y Yield |
5.098 | -15bp | +93bp | +111bp | +351bp |
Tanker freight this week
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.43M | -3.0% | +1515% | 238.4 | 32.52 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$551k | -6.7% | +778% | 151.7 | 20.70 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$249k | -23.4% | +479% | 142.8 | 19.48 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$300k | +6.5% | +1280% | 196.5 | 26.38 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$215k | +4.5% | +1185% | 203.2 | 22.83 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$64k | +43.0% | +40.7% | 91.3 | 10.74 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$72k | -5.2% | +236% | 100.1 | 13.44 |
Report of Oct 15, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism, from the E.A. Gibson tanker report.
Forward curves
Months 1 to 24 at Friday’s settlement Fri Oct 16 in black, the same contracts a week and a month earlier in greys. Dashed: months 1 to 24 as they stood a year earlier. Refinery cracks in $/bbl from the NYMEX curves.
WTI $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Nov 26 $101.41, up $9.56 on the week; Oct 28 $73.68. A year ago the front (Nov 25) was $57.54.
Brent $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Dec 26 $109.86, up $5.14 on the week; Nov 28 $78.46. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $61.06.
3-2-1 crack $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Nov 26 $57.77, down $8.98 on the week; Oct 28 $35.54. A year ago the front (Nov 25) was $24.44.
Henry Hub $/MMBtu
Contango. Front Nov 26 $3.116, down $0.104 on the week; Oct 28 $3.604. A year ago the front (Nov 25) was $3.008.
The diesel and gasoline cracks, copper and propane: all eight curves.
The Week Ahead
Scheduled events next week that could move commodities.
Mon Oct 19 |
Oil-rich province votes on starting process for binding independence referendum; outcome could affect Canadian energy policy and output |
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Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
Fundamentals supportive of commodity upcycle; oil vulnerable to disruptions, copper preferred, gold diversifier.
Oil Hormuz/Red Sea disruptions keep market tight
Copper mine constraints, China demand, low inventories
Gold central bank buying offsets yield pressure
Agriculture El Niño risks tighten supplies
UBS · Oct 12 · Read →
Prefer gold, zinc, uranium; avoid aluminum, iron ore amid macro headwinds and supply shifts.
Gold 2027 avg $5,050/oz on CB demand
Zinc supply-limited upside vs consensus
Uranium structural deficit support
Aluminum/iron ore new supply weighs on prices
Morgan Stanley · Oct 6 · Read →
Demand for critical minerals nearly doubles to 2040; copper/lithium gaps narrow, cobalt widens.
Lithium >3x demand growth to 2040
Copper +7Mt demand, gap narrows to 25%
Cobalt gap widens to >25% on DRC quotas
Nickel/graphite/rare earths: 50 to 90% growth
IEA · Oct 7 · Read →
2026 oil demand falls 2.6M bpd y/y; diesel drives quarter of drop amid Mideast war and high prices.
Demand -2.6M bpd annual, steeper than prior
Supply -5.8M bpd y/y, recovery fragile
Diesel accounts for 25% of demand decline
2027 partial +2M bpd rebound, still below 2025
IEA · Oct 14 · Read →
Brent $90 Dec 2026, $80 avg 2027; surplus from Q4 2026 as Gulf adapts, but escalation risks upside.
Brent $90 Dec, $80 2027 avg
Supply Persian Gulf rebounds to near 2025 levels
Demand -3.3M bpd y/y in Q3, partial recovery
Risk $25 premium priced in for escalation
Goldman · Oct 16 · Read →
Raise copper LT forecast to $13,200/t; Glencore, Antofagasta, gold miners top picks on tariffs and growth.
Copper LT $13,200/t on US tariffs, supply tight
Glencore OW, +30% Cu volume growth to 2031
Antofagasta top Cu pick, ROCE >35% post-2028
Gold miners highest conviction for Q4/2027
JPMorgan · Oct 14 · Read →
Brent $105 Q4 2026, $100 Q1 2027; costly freight favors short-haul North Sea crude over long-haul.
Brent raised to $105 Q4 from $100
Freight expensive shipping boosts short-haul Brent
Gulf exports back within 10% of pre-war
Long-haul Brazil/West Africa/US discount to compete
Morgan Stanley · Oct 13 · Read →
GSCI hits record Q4 2026 on Mideast energy disruption; uneven easing through 2027 across sectors.
Brent >$100/bbl avg through mid-2027
Gold $4,515/oz 2026 avg, rising to $5,140 2028
Natural gas winter squeeze on LNG rerouting limits
Base metals near-term correction then structural support
Oxford Economics · Oct 14 · Read →
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
Traders earn extraordinary margins on risky Hormuz shuttles amid record tanker rates.
China cuts seaborne crude imports sharply
SPRs and creative routing avert $200 oil
Freight surge fragments global market into regional ones
Oil Ground Up (Clear Commodity Network) · Oct 14 · Listen →
Lifting of Russia's diesel export ban brings partial relief but prices stay sensitive to headlines.
European distillate market remains constrained
Geopolitics keep volatility elevated
Supply resumption reshapes balances slowly
Oil Markets (S&P Global / Platts) · Oct 13 · Listen →
Samudra Manthan and fiscal tweaks reduce frontier exploration risks for investors.
Deepwater acreage access improves
Cost-sharing measures introduced
Production ramp expected from new terms
Oil Markets (S&P Global / Platts) · Oct 13 · Listen →
Factory production and repeated designs cut costs for small modular reactors serving data centers.
Low-enriched uranium viable near-term
Supply-chain growth remains key challenge
Fast-spectrum and recycling eyed longer-term
MacroVoices · Oct 15 · Listen →
Global inventories drew 4 mbpd in September as diesel shortages persist despite military flows.
Tanker rates up twelvefold
Structural refined-product deficit deepens
Higher energy costs now structural
Squawk Box · Oct 13 · Listen →
French bond selloff and fiscal instability could spill into broader euro-area markets.
Public finances in sorry shape
2027 elections add instability
Similarities to Greece euro crisis noted
Odd Lots · Oct 16 · Listen →
Commodity Intelligence
Split 2-1 negative on oil; oil flipped bearish and Claude flipped bearish on copper this week.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
Oil 2 of 3 AIs |
▼ Down flipped from Up |
|
Copper 2 of 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up 6th straight week |
|
US Nat Gas 2 of 3 AIs |
▼ Down Down 2nd straight week |
|
Gold all 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up unanimous 6 weeks |
Line: the price at each weekend issue since Jun 27. Dots: what most of the three AIs called that week, green Up, red Down.
Why they disagree on oil
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI · changed its mind
▼ Down OPEC+ spare capacity and rising US shale output flood supply.
Gemini · Google
▲ Up OPEC+ maintains tight supply amidst geopolitical tensions and robust summer driving demand, pushing prices higher despite economic headwinds.
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Demand fears from tariff-driven slowdown outweigh OPEC cuts as US inventory builds pressure prices lower.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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