Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, October 13, 2026 · 52 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,859
+0.02%
+1 |
Dollar Index
102.34
-0.2%
-0.25 |
EUR/USD
1.1183
+0.2%
+0.0022 |
US 10Y Yield
5.240
-0.4 bp
|
Last price as of Tue, Oct 13, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures; the dollar index, EUR/USD and the 10-year yield are cash. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Crude down $1.72 (-1.6%) on Brent and $1.69 (-1.8%) on WTI. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Aramco could add 1.2 million bpd of export capacity within weeks by repurposing nat gas pipelines. Separately the kingdom plans to expand East West pipeline capacity (bypassing Hormuz) toward 10 million bpd over 2 years from the current 6 mil. We will quickly get to a 100% Hormuz pipeline bypass situation within a couple of years.
Trump has indicated he is “considering” joining Saudi-led strikes against the Houthis; the Houthis threatened a “swift, painful” response if the US becomes involved. Trump may be waiting until Nov 3 US midterms are over. He also has a grudge against Saudi’s MBS since MBS rejected US overfly requests back in May.
Isobutane up $0.070 (+3.9%), N-Butane up $0.052 (+3.2%) and Propane up $0.028 (+2.8%), all on tight US Gulf Coast supply and strong petrochemical and export demand.
Cocoa up $135 (+2.4%) on renewed West African supply concerns from heavy rains damaging roads and delaying port deliveries amid El Niño risks.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $1.77 (+2.1%) on reduced US LNG exports from cold weather disruptions and Norwegian maintenance outages tightening near-term European supply.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long summer 2027 European gasoline futures on persistent distillate tightness and refining capacity constraints (Goldman Sachs, Oct 12).
Trump has indicated he is “considering” joining Saudi-led strikes against the Houthis; the Houthis threatened a “swift, painful” response if the US becomes involved. Trump may be waiting until Nov 3 US midterms are over. He also has a grudge against Saudi’s MBS since MBS rejected US overfly requests back in May.
Isobutane up $0.070 (+3.9%), N-Butane up $0.052 (+3.2%) and Propane up $0.028 (+2.8%), all on tight US Gulf Coast supply and strong petrochemical and export demand.
Cocoa up $135 (+2.4%) on renewed West African supply concerns from heavy rains damaging roads and delaying port deliveries amid El Niño risks.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $1.77 (+2.1%) on reduced US LNG exports from cold weather disruptions and Norwegian maintenance outages tightening near-term European supply.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long summer 2027 European gasoline futures on persistent distillate tightness and refining capacity constraints (Goldman Sachs, Oct 12).
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Sulphur shortage threatens global food prices
Camilla Hodgson and Susannah Savage · Financial Times · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has created a significant shortage of sulphur, a byproduct of the oil and gas industry used in copper and phosphate fertilisers. Prices have surged close to 10 times above pre-conflict levels to nearly $1,000 a tonne, forcing fertiliser makers to scale back production. Mosaic chief economist Andy Jung warned that higher costs will show up in global yields and escalate food prices. Read →
Oil rises as Trump energy ceasefire frays
Financial Times · Tue, Oct 12, 2026
Oil prices rose as President Trump’s energy ceasefire announcement with Russia and Ukraine frayed amid renewed Ukrainian accusations of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. The deal followed a diesel supply agreement with Putin aimed at containing higher fuel costs ahead of midterm elections. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia added to supply concerns. Read →
Gold settles lower on rising dollar, oil
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Gold futures settled lower amid US dollar gains and a rise in oil futures as Middle East tensions persist. The firmer dollar and high oil prices reinforced concerns that persistent energy-driven inflation could keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish policy path. Front-month gold settled down 0.6% at $4,165.80 a troy ounce. Read →
Gold lower, oil higher amid Mideast tensions
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Gold futures settled lower amid US dollar gains and a rise in oil futures as Middle East tensions persist. The market will be looking to this week’s US inflation data and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh comments for interest-rate clarity. Silver also fell 0.9% to $60.141 a troy ounce. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 5US Natural Gas 4Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 1Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 3Coal 1Agriculture 3Fertilizers 3Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 2Environment 2Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 5Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 5Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Brent slips toward $105 after three-day rally as Russian diesel supply prospects offset Middle East supply risks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 92.05 | -1.8% -1.69 |
+60.3% | +56.8% | +14.4% |
| Brent | 104.93 | -1.6% -1.72 |
+72.4% | +68.2% | +26.1% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.231 | -1.8% -0.061 |
+83.0% | +70.7% | +29.7% |
| Heating Oil | 4.698 | -0.5% -0.025 |
+122% | +114% | +86.4% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
43.65 | -1.9% -0.86 |
+161% +26.92 |
+110% +22.84 |
+80.7% +19.49 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
105.27 | +0.6% +0.64 |
+233% +73.63 |
+213% +71.68 |
+314% +79.83 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
64.19 | -0.6% -0.36 |
+196% +42.49 |
+156% +39.12 |
+161% +39.61 |
Oil slips as Russian diesel prospects ease Gulf risks
Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Brent crude futures fell 0.57% to $106.04 a barrel while WTI dropped 0.5% to $93.27 a barrel Tuesday. Traders weighed additional Russian diesel supplies after Trump said Moscow agreed to boost exports and the US eased sanctions on Russian fuel. The move follows Brent's settlement at $106.65 on Monday, its highest since September 15. Read →
OPEC slashes 2026 demand growth to 400,000 bpd
Jana Choukeir · Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said the group cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million bpd at the start of the year. The revision aligns with weaker-than-expected consumption amid disruptions. OPEC expects deferred demand to materialize as pent-up consumption in 2027. Read →
OPEC ministers: shipping costs exceed one-third of oil value
Anjana Anil · Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
OPEC and non-OPEC ministers meeting in Riyadh said shipping and insurance costs have surged to over one-third of commodity value, impeding crude and product movement. The elevated costs add inflationary pressure on the global economy and weigh on growth for producers and consumers. Ministers stressed safeguarding maritime routes and will monitor the situation. Read →
Oil edges lower after Middle East conflict gains
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Brent fell toward $105 a barrel and WTI was below $93 after rising more than 6% over three sessions on Middle East supply concerns. Diesel in New York declined a third day after Russia agreed to release more supply at Trump's request. Houthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia intensified regional pressure. Read →
Oil slips after rally as West Asia war threatens supply
CNBC TV18 · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Brent eased below $106 a barrel and WTI hovered near $93 Tuesday after climbing more than 6% in the prior three sessions. Traders assessed risks that widening West Asia conflict could stall regional supply recovery alongside uncertainty over Russian diesel exports. Supertankers have turned away from the Arabian Gulf amid Strait of Hormuz strikes. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natgas futures fall to $3.13/MMBtu on softer demand forecasts and mild weather despite LNG flows rising to five-month high.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.136 | -1.0% -0.031 |
-14.9% | +3.6% | -43.9% |
US natgas futures drop 3% on softer demand outlook
Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
November NYMEX futures fell 9.4 cents to $3.126/MMBtu as LSEG cut next-week Lower 48 demand forecast from Friday levels. Pennsylvania spot prices hit multi-year lows near $0.61/MMBtu from pipeline constraints and mild weather. Output slipped to a four-month low near 108.9 bcfd while LNG feedgas flows rose toward an 18.8 bcfd five-month high. Read →
US natgas futures pull back on warmer outlook
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
NYMEX gas settled down 1.6% at $3.167/MMBtu after forecasts showed above-normal temperatures through mid-October delaying heating demand. Offshore shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias eased to 0.53 bcfd from 1.3 bcfd. Traders expect prices to trade in a $3.07-$3.17 range barring further storm damage. Read →
US natgas futures ease on Gulf restarts and warm weather
Judith Sib-at · Trading Economics · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Futures fell for a second day to $3.15/MMBtu as Gulf producers restored output after Isaias and eastern US temperatures are forecast above average October 22 to 26. October LNG feedgas averaged 17.4 bcfd, down from September, while EIA storage rose 85 Bcf week ending Oct 2, above the 79 Bcf consensus. Read →
First US LNG cargo reaches China in 17 months
World Energy News / Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
The Al Fat'h arrived at PipeChina Yangpu terminal in Hainan with cargo loaded at Venture Global's Plaquemines plant, the first direct US LNG shipment to China since February 2025. Analysts expect re-export via bonded storage rather than domestic consumption due to tariffs and weak Chinese demand. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane jumps 2.8% to 101.1¢/gal as Energy Transfer unveils major Nederland ethane/LPG export expansion.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.292 | +2.1% +0.006 |
+23.1% | +8.9% | -33.5% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.011 | +2.8% +0.028 |
+63.8% | +57.5% | -30.0% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.651 | +3.2% +0.052 |
+122% | +105% | +3.5% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.876 | +3.9% +0.070 |
+141% | +124% | +17.4% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.179 | +0.9% +0.019 |
+85.9% | +74.2% | +14.4% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 9 | +1 | +9 | +2 | +2 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 72 | +3 | +44 | +36 | -21 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -688 | -7 | -384 | -367 | -277 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -388 | +3 | -222 | -193 | -389 |
| C5 as % WTI | 99 | +3 | +14 | +10 | unch |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Targa secures 20-year ExxonMobil Permian NGL deals
Downstream Calendar · Tue, Oct 13
Targa announced 20-year fee-based agreements with ExxonMobil extending through 2046, adding NGL dedications for transportation and fractionation across Permian Delaware and Midland basins plus three new Delaware gas processing plants totaling 825 MMcf/d due online 1H28. Targa will also build the Bull Run II gas pipeline to Waha. The deals lock in long-term Permian NGL supply for Mont Belvieu fractionation and exports. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF jumps 2% to €86/MWh on low EU storage at 73% and cooler demand forecasts amid tight global LNG.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
86.12 | +2.1% +1.77 |
+208% | +172% | -7.4% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
28.23 | +2.1% +0.58 |
+208% | +172% | -7.4% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
26.09 | +0.4% +0.11 |
+172% | +137% | -21.2% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sun, Oct 11
EU gas storage is 73.8% full, 833 TWh in store, 15.0 points below the five-year average for this date and 9.3 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 60.0%.
EU full 73.8% +0.14 pts d/d | Year ago 83.0% | 5-yr avg 88.7% same date |
Germany 60.0% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF November futures climb 2.1% to €86.09/MWh on ICE data.
Maria Georgieva · BurgasMedia · Tue, Oct 13, 8:18 AM ET
November TTF futures rose about 2.1% to €86.09/MWh by mid-morning Bulgarian time on ICE data, up from a €84.351 close the prior day. Day-ahead at Balkan Gas Hub settled at €72.82/MWh. The move aligns with broader reports of European prices lifting on sub-seasonal storage and weather-driven demand signals. Read →
Europe ends Q3 with storage near 72%, tightening winter outlook.
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies · Mon, Oct 12, 7:15 AM ET
EU storage closed Q3 just under 72% full after slower injections amid flat consumption and reduced LNG imports. Injections likely end early November, setting up low end-winter stocks on 1 April 2027 and a tight 2026/27 winter balance given curtailed Hormuz LNG flows and Asia-Europe cargo competition. Read →
Four LNG carriers divert to Europe on 74% EU storage.
Philenews · Tue, Oct 13, 3:34 AM ET
At least four LNG carriers originally bound for Asia rerouted to Europe last week, including US-origin vessels now heading to UK and Belgian terminals. The shift occurs as EU storage sits at 74%, below the five-year average, prompting buyers to secure winter supplies amid global competition for cargoes. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM triggers DOE emergency order and Max Gen Alert for Oct 13 amid warm weather, 62 GW outages and thin reserves; data-center registry advances but curtailment plan rejected.
PJM issues Max Gen Alert for Oct. 13 on warm weather and outages
PJM Inside Lines · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
PJM declared a Maximum Generation Alert and Load Management Alert for October 13 due to unusually warm fall weather, planned maintenance outages (62,000 MW generation outages expected) and transmission constraints. Forecast peak demand reaches 112,447 MW on Tuesday with reserves as tight as 900 MW on some days. The grid operator also extended its Capacity Advisory through October 14 and recalled maintenance outages. Read →
FERC okays PJM data-center registry, rejects curtailment plan
Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
FERC approved PJM’s proposal to create a database tracking data centers (50 MW+ loads) effective October 12 but rejected the grid operator’s plan for temporary curtailment of those loads during high-demand periods. PJM forecasts data-center demand tripling to 29 GW by 2030, which has already driven capacity prices up more than 1,000% since 2024 and created a 6.8 GW shortfall risk. Read →
DOE issues 202(c) emergency order for PJM Oct 13 to 16
U.S. Department of Energy · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
DOE issued Order 202-26-50 under Federal Power Act Section 202(c) effective October 13 to 16, authorizing PJM to dispatch specified units and direct backup generation (including at data centers) as a last resort before or during an EEA-3 to maintain reliability. The order responds to PJM’s October 11 application citing forecast demand near 111,500 MW, heavy autumn outages and transmission constraints. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China thermal coal hits 1,004 yuan/t three-year high on supply curbs and LNG rally.
China thermal coal at three-year high amid supply squeeze
The Edge Malaysia · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Benchmark price hit 1,004 yuan/t as Shanxi mine restarts lag safety approvals ahead of a key Communist Party meeting and Indonesia shipments fell sharply. Three-week maintenance on the main rail corridor through Oct 26 adds pressure. Winter demand rise and LNG strength from Hormuz disruptions sustain upward momentum. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Soybeans fall on higher US ending stocks and fast Brazil planting; sugar rises on Brazil rain worries.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 481 | -0.5% -2 |
+9.2% | +16.4% | -6.1% |
| Wheat | 669 | -0.6% -4 |
+31.9% | +33.6% | -7.0% |
| Soybeans | 1,282 | -0.4% -6 |
+24.4% | +27.4% | +7.3% |
| Sugar | 20.71 | -0.7% -0.14 |
+38.0% | +30.4% | +4.3% |
| Coffee | 291.9 | +0.4% +1.3 |
-16.3% | -27.0% | +39.9% |
| Cocoa | 5,811 | +2.4% +135 |
-4.2% | -1.5% | +123% |
| Cotton | 80.65 | +0.1% +0.05 |
+25.1% | +26.6% | -22.6% |
Raw sugar futures rise on Brazil rain worries
Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 5:04 AM ET
Raw sugar futures on ICE rose 2.3% to 20.72 cents per lb Monday after hitting a 19-month high of 21.24 cents last week. Record El Nino-linked rains in Brazil and more expected in October threaten output and exports from the top producer. White sugar also gained 2.4% to $555.60 per metric ton. Read →
Soybeans drop on bigger US ending stocks forecast
Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 5:04 AM ET
CBOT soybeans fell 1.01% to $12.79 per bushel as the USDA raised October estimates for US grain and soybean ending stocks from September. Favorable Midwest weather aided harvest catch-up while Brazil soybean planting hit its fastest pace ever at one-fifth of area. China cut its 2026/27 soybean output forecast by 590,000 metric tons. Read →
Soybeans fall as China buying lags post-holiday
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 13, 4:39 AM ET
Most-active CBOT soybean futures dropped as much as 1% extending losses into a second day. Top importer China has yet to make significant purchases after its weeklong holiday while the US supply outlook remains ample after the USDA report. The decline follows Friday's WASDE revisions showing higher ending stocks. Read →
Fertilizers
What's moving · Sulfur spot prices above $1,000/t and persistent Hormuz disruptions tighten phosphate supply amid easing urea offers.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea, China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,698 | -1.5% -25 |
-2.9% | +5.5% | -42.8% |
| Urea, Egypt FOB $/t |
500.00 | -1.5% -7.50 |
-13.0% | +14.7% | -38.7% |
| Urea, Brazil CFR $/t |
475.00 | +0.4% +2.00 |
+16.6% | +12.1% | -40.3% |
| Urea, US Gulf FOB $/st |
432.75 | +1.3% +5.50 |
+11.9% | +13.9% | -39.4% |
| DAP, NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.5% | +17.6% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
India urea tender offers drop nearly 10% from August levels.
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 8, 2026
Indian Potash Ltd closed its 1.7 million tonne urea tender on October 7 with west-coast offers at $356.25, $416.50/t and east-coast at $352.10, $465/t, roughly 10% below August levels and more than double the sought volume. The results signal ample global supply chasing Indian demand as Chinese exports resume and Middle East disruptions ease for nitrogen. Lower benchmark prices ease pressure on the world's largest importer ahead of rabi planting. Read →
Hormuz sulfur shortages shift focus to access over price for phosphates.
World Fertilizer · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Gulf supplies 44% of seaborne sulfur critical for sulfuric acid in phosphate production, with spot values at $805/t FOB Qatar and higher elsewhere after Hormuz disruptions. Phosphate output has curtailed globally, including 30% cuts in Morocco, as processors cannot secure feedstock despite some ammonia easing to $775/t CFR Tampa. Finished DAP/MAP prices in India and Brazil show disconnect from input spikes due to subsidies and demand weakness. Read →
Nutrien indefinitely shuts Trinidad nitrogen plant over gas issues.
Nutrien · Mon, Oct 5, 2026
Nutrien will permanently close its Point Lisas nitrogen operations after a strategic review, citing ongoing natural gas constraints and uncertainty that eroded free cash flow. The facility had been idled since October 2025; 2026 nitrogen sales guidance of 9.2, 9.7 million tons remains unchanged as the company shifts focus to North American assets via reliability and debottlenecking projects. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME zinc drops 1.3% on 6,000 mt inventory surge to new high since mid-2025 as bulls cut positions.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,899 | +0.2% +24 |
+20.0% | +35.7% | +49.5% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,750 | -0.1% -18 |
+16.1% | +38.1% | +54.5% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,123 | -0.3% -11 |
+4.9% | +19.6% | -0.6% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,422 | -1.2% -40 |
+13.9% | +24.3% | +9.1% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,637 | -0.2% -34 |
-7.7% | +3.2% | -20.4% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,148 | +0.4% +9 |
-2.5% | +1.6% | +7.7% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
52,539 | -0.3% -166 |
+25.1% | +48.5% | +37.2% |
LME zinc falls 1.38% as dollar and oil rise pressure metals.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 13, 2026, 8:45 AM ET
LME zinc closed down 1.38% to $3,753/mt overnight after a 6,000 mt inventory increase to 132,850 mt, a new high since mid-2025. SHFE zinc fell 0.73%. The US dollar index rose 0.34% to 102.58 and crude oil gained over 1%, weighing on base metals broadly. Read →
LME zinc inventory jumps 6,000 mt to new 2025 high.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 13, 2026, 8:44 AM ET
LME zinc inventory rose 6,000 mt to 132,850 mt, its highest since mid-June 2025, prompting bulls to reduce positions. The metal closed down $48.5/mt or 1.28% at $3,753/mt with open interest falling 1,840 lots. SHFE zinc followed lower in night trading. Read →
LME copper rises 0.49% despite post-holiday inventory build.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 13, 2026, 9:07 AM ET
LME copper closed up 0.49% at $14,621.5/mt on long positioning amid Strait of Hormuz tanker attack and hawkish Fed comments. SHFE copper rose 0.11%. Shanghai social inventories jumped 11,800 mt WoW from imported arrivals, easing tightness and pressuring spot premiums. Read →
Lithium carbonate falls for ninth straight day, down 3.97%.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 13, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell another 3.97% at midday, extending a nine-day losing streak. Alumina futures dropped 2.3% and SHFE zinc 1.39%. Broader base metals were mixed to lower with LME zinc off 0.47%. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel demand contraction and weak post-holiday restocking weigh on iron ore prices amid ample supply.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
89.5 | -0.9% -0.8 |
-11.1% | -8.4% | -13.0% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
399 | +0.1% +0 |
+1.4% | +4.2% | -49.5% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
425 | -0.5% -2 |
+3.0% | +4.5% | -46.8% |
WSA cuts 2026 global steel demand forecast to flat or slight drop
Reuters / worldsteel.org · Mon, Oct 12, 5:27 PM ET
The World Steel Association revised its 2026 global steel demand forecast to essentially flat at 1,722 Mt or a 0.1% contraction, down from April's 0.3% growth expectation. China demand is now seen contracting 2% (deeper than prior view) due to persistent property weakness and soft infrastructure, with the revision almost entirely China-driven. This signals sustained pressure on iron ore and steelmaking raw materials as the key demand anchor weakens further. Read →
Iron ore futures edge higher on post-holiday restocking hopes
Reuters / Business Recorder · Mon, Oct 12, 2:00 AM ET
DCE most-traded iron ore contract rose 0.15% to 684.5 yuan/t ($102.27/t) and SGX November contract gained 0.67% to $91.2/t on expectations Chinese mills would rebuild feedstocks after National Day holiday. Gains were capped by thin post-holiday restocking so far and Q4 supply increases as miners meet targets; rebar and HRC futures were mixed. Lower coke prices narrowed some mill losses but have not yet spurred broad iron ore buying. Read →
Coke cuts fail to boost iron ore demand; prices rangebound low
SMM / Shanghai Metals Market · Mon, Oct 12, 5:25 AM ET
DCE I2701 settled at 683 yuan/t, down 0.07%, with Qingdao port spot prices falling 0 to 2 yuan/t amid thin trading and mills buying only for immediate needs. More blast-furnace maintenance after the holiday and soft end-use demand keep buying appetite weak despite coke price cuts improving margins slightly. Iron ore demand is expected to stay low near term, leaving prices rangebound at low levels. Read →
China iron ore port stocks climb to 173.2 Mt post-holiday
Mysteel · Fri, Oct 9 or Sat, Oct 10, 2026 (weekly data as
Imported iron ore inventories at China's 47 major ports rose 0.6% from end-September to 173.2 million tonnes by October 8, marking the fourth straight weekly increase and 15.7% above year-ago levels. The build reflects holiday timing and subdued mill buying, adding to supply pressure on iron ore prices alongside high port stocks and weak steel mill profitability. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold holds near $4,170/oz as strong ETF inflows and China PBOC buying offset dollar strength and oil-driven rate-hike fears.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,209 | +0.4% +18 |
-3.0% | +1.1% | +135% |
| Silver | 60.71 | +0.3% +0.20 |
-13.4% | +20.7% | +162% |
| Platinum | 1,711 | +1.0% +17 |
-15.9% | +3.4% | +67.3% |
| Palladium | 1,152 | +0.5% +6 |
-29.3% | -26.6% | -45.4% |
Global gold ETFs see record $31B Q3 inflows, $10B in September
Neils Christensen · Kitco News · Mon, Oct 12, 2:33 PM ET
Physically backed gold ETFs attracted $10 billion (67.3 tonnes) in September, lifting Q3 inflows to a record $31 billion with holdings rising to an all-time high of 4,256 tonnes. North American and European funds led, including the UK’s strongest quarter ever; inflows persisted despite higher yields and a price pullback, showing investors bought the dip for diversification. Read →
First Majestic Q3 silver output falls 11% YoY to 3.4M oz
Zacks.com · Mon, Oct 12
First Majestic Silver produced 3.4 million ounces of silver in Q3 2026, down 11% year-over-year and 9% from Q2, mainly due to a 12-day labor dispute at the San Dimas mine that cut its output 41%. La Encantada output jumped 68% on higher grades and throughput, but overall supply from this major producer tightened. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US defense rules and heavy rare earth price surges drive the complex amid China export controls.
Heavy rare earth prices surge on US defense rules
Jackson Chen · Mining.com.au · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Heavy rare earth prices surged with terbium oxide jumping 41% to $5,000, $8,000/kg and dysprosium oxide rising over 33% to $2,500, $3,500/kg in the week to Oct 1. Buyers scramble for non-Chinese supplies ahead of January 2027 Pentagon restrictions banning China-, Russia-, Iran- or North Korea-sourced NdFeB and SmCo magnets for defense procurement. Lynas' acquisition of Meteoric's Brazil project adds dysprosium-terbium feedstock as ex-China demand for heavy rare earths hits 400 tonnes annually. Read →
Malaysian king buys stake in rare earths miner
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Malaysia's King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar bought a 2.25% stake in Singapore-listed Southern Alliance Mining for S$6.1 million. The iron ore miner is expanding into rare earths, including a project in the king's home state of Johor. The move highlights growing interest in non-Chinese critical minerals supply chains. Read →
Pr-Nd prices rise as heavy rare earths weaken
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Pr-Nd oxide prices rose 3,500 yuan/mt and Pr-Nd alloy rose 1,500 yuan/mt on firm raw material prices and downstream demand. Dysprosium oxide held steady while terbium oxide fell 45,000 yuan/mt and terbium metal fell 100,000 yuan/mt. The divergence reflects resilient light rare earth demand versus softening medium-heavy rare earths in the Chinese domestic market. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index falls 2.2% to 2,852, its lowest since August 21, as Capesize rates slump on weak iron ore demand.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.48M | +15.8% | +2395% | $245.3 | $33.47 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$590k | +37.5% | +1204% | $161.5 | $22.03 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$325k | +35.3% | +739% | $181.5 | $24.76 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$282k | +0.1% | +1167% | $185.1 | $24.85 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$206k | -1.2% | +1208% | $194.8 | $21.89 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$45k | -31.9% | +47.9% | $70.2 | $8.26 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -13.6% | +267% | $103.6 | $13.91 |
Report of Oct 8, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism, from the E.A. Gibson tanker report.
Baltic Dry Index falls to more than 7-week low on Capesize weakness.
Anushree Mukherjee · Reuters via Baird Maritime · Mon, Oct 12, 6:28 PM ET
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index dropped 65 points or 2.23% to 2,852 on Monday, its lowest since August 21. Capesize rates fell 192 points or 4.42% to 4,148, the lowest since late July, with daily earnings down $1,745 to $34,115. Panamax and supramax indexes rose modestly while iron ore prices seesawed on mixed Chinese steel restocking signals. Read →
Empty VLCCs reverse course from Fujairah amid Hormuz attacks.
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 12, 4:55 PM ET
At least 10 VLCCs and several Suezmax vessels approaching Fujairah have stopped or reversed in recent days, per tanker-tracking data. Escalating Iranian attacks threaten the key transfer hub for wartime oil shipments bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. This adds to global tanker shortages and keeps freight rates elevated. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS reform talks and US state carbon linkage advance drive carbon prices higher amid policy momentum.
EUAs and UKAs hit 8-month highs on reform talks and summit optimism
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Oct 12, 5:27 PM ET
European carbon prices rose Monday to their highest since late January, with aggressive buying as environment ministers debated EU ETS reforms in Brussels. UKA prices surged in the afternoon to match the gains, supported by rising energy markets and optimism over a potential EU-UK emissions trading deal at next month's summit. The moves reflect concrete policy momentum lifting both EUA and UKA benchmarks. Read →
EU ministers split on ETS ambition, free allowances and ETS2
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Oct 12, 4:55 PM ET
The EU's 27 environment ministers backed the ETS as a decarbonisation and competitiveness tool at Monday's Luxembourg meeting but remained divided on the pace of post-2030 emissions cuts, industry support via free allowances, and whether to reopen or adjust the separate ETS2 scheme for buildings and transport. The first formal debate on the July Commission proposal highlighted fractures ahead of a potential December deal under the Irish Presidency. The outcome keeps near-term policy uncertainty elevated for EUA supply and pricing. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC greenlights tokenized assets for commodities firms as adoption accelerates.
CFTC clears tokenized assets and blockchain records for commodities firms
CryptoSynk · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
The CFTC updated FAQs allowing futures commission merchants and derivatives clearing organizations to invest customer funds in tokenized forms of permitted assets under Regulation 1.25 if they are functionally equivalent and properly held. It also confirmed blockchain satisfies recordkeeping rules under Regulations 1.31 and 45.2. This directly enables on-chain commodity exposure and recordkeeping for regulated U.S. derivatives participants. Read →
Tokenized commodity holders surge past 450,000
CoinStats · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
Wallets holding tokenized commodities reached 452,931 per rwa.xyz, up 3.6 times from 126,000 a year earlier with most growth since early August. Tether Gold leads with 143,973 holders while non-gold products including oil, silver and copper tokens now account for 42,000 holders combined. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · BP's Q3 trading statement shows refining margins surging nearly 60% and net debt hitting 2027 target early amid Middle East supply disruptions.
BP hits 2027 net debt target early as refining margins jump nearly 60%.
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
BP expects Q3 net debt of $13.5 to 14.5 billion, down from $22.3 billion in Q2, after redeeming $1 billion in hybrids and benefiting from strong oil/gas trading and refining. Refining indicator margin rose to $46.70 per barrel from $29.60. The company flagged $3 to 4.5 billion in impairments mainly in gas and low-carbon energy, excluded from underlying results. Read →
BP sees stronger gas trading and $1.9 to 2.1B refining margin boost in Q3.
BP · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
BP expects upstream production of 2.19 to 2.24 million boe/d and significantly higher gas marketing and trading results versus Q2. Realized refining margins are projected to add $1.9 to 2.1 billion to products earnings. Net debt reduction includes working capital and capex effects. Read →
Chevron names Jeff Gustavson CFO, Bonner to head oil, products and gas.
Kevin Crowley · Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 5, 2026
Effective Jan. 1, 2027, Jeff Gustavson moves from New Energies president to CFO; Eimear Bonner shifts from CFO to president of Oil, Products & Gas. Mark Nelson becomes vice chairman focused on strategy and business development. The moves position internal candidates ahead of CEO Mike Wirth succession. Read →
Cenovus agrees C$5.7B cash-and-stock deal for Athabasca Oil.
Reuters · Mon, Oct 5, 2026
Cenovus will acquire Athabasca Oil in a C$5.7 billion transaction adding 45,000 boe/d of thermal oilsands production and Duvernay assets. Production from acquired assets could reach 115,000 bpd by 2032. Deal is expected to close in December and generate C$85 million in annual synergies. Read →
Woodway Energy names Russell Shriver Chief Commercial Officer.
PR Newswire / Woodway Energy · Wed, Oct 7, 2026
Woodway Energy Infrastructure appointed Russell Shriver as CCO effective immediately. Shriver brings nearly 30 years of commercial experience from data center, power and telecom sectors including roles at Digital Realty and Vantage Data Centers. Appointment supports expansion of natural gas pipelines for data centers, IPPs, utilities and LNG. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump-Putin diesel export deal and China critical minerals export control relief drive commodity policy moves.
Russia partially lifts diesel export ban after Trump-Putin deal
Bloomberg · Sat, Oct 10, 2026
Following an agreement between Presidents Trump and Putin, Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban, allowing 500,000 metric tons to reach international markets starting Saturday. Russian firms will negotiate export contracts with government coordination. The US Treasury issued a temporary license permitting Russian diesel sales globally until April 2027, aiming to ease tight fuel supplies ahead of US midterms. Read →
Trump-Putin deal lets Russia supply diesel to ease prices
Reuters · Tue, Oct 12, 2026
Trump announced Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 metric tons of diesel (about 2.25 million barrels) to US and global markets, followed by 500,000 tons in November and more later, after the US lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports. Volumes remain modest relative to global demand of roughly 100 million barrels of oil equivalent daily. Russia also began lifting its own export restrictions ahead of schedule, with Deputy PM Novak claiming potential return to pre-crisis export levels. Read →
China to ease gallium, germanium export curbs and lift ag tariffs
Brett Fortnam · Inside U.S. Trade · Sat, Oct 12, 2026
China agreed to relax export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite and antimony, lift retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, and allow Nexperia semiconductor products to leave China, per a White House fact sheet detailing the Trump-Xi deal. The moves follow earlier negotiations and provide new documentation beyond Chinese ministry readouts. These changes target critical minerals used in semiconductors, batteries and other commodity-linked supply chains. Read →
Trump lowers tariffs on ag equipment and HVAC to 15%
Farms.com · Sun, Oct 12, 2026
President Trump issued a proclamation reducing Section 232 tariffs on agricultural equipment such as harvesters, HVAC systems, bulldozers and forklifts to 15% from 25%, effective through end-2027. Tariffs on products made abroad but containing at least 85% US steel, aluminum or copper also dropped to 10%. The changes seek to limit collateral damage from metals tariffs on US farmers, manufacturers and consumers. Read →
Trump administration issues Jones Act waiver for fuel, fertilizer
World Ports Organization · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
The Trump administration announced a 60-day Jones Act waiver for shipments of oil, natural gas, fertilizer and coal to ease supply disruptions and rising prices linked to the Iran conflict. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the waiver allows vital resources to flow freely to US ports for 60 days. High energy and fertilizer costs pose political risks ahead of midterms, with the move following broader efforts to stabilize domestic markets. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil slips as Russia diesel deal counters Gulf supply fears
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 13
Traders on X note Brent around $105.5 and WTI near $92.6 after Monday's close at $106.65/$93.74. Novak signals Russian diesel exports could reach 3 to 3.5 Mt/mo by year-end, with IEA board meeting on diesel stocks Oct 15. Persistent Hormuz attacks (17+ since Sep 28) and tanker incidents keep physical market tight despite the supply optimism. Read →
Houthis warn of painful US response if strikes join Saudi offensive
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 13
X traders highlight Houthi statements threatening swift painful responses targeting the US if it joins Saudi strikes. This follows reports of US potentially participating amid ongoing attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping. Escalation risks compound supply concerns in the Persian Gulf. Read →
Dubai MOC shows $108.75 assessment and strong physical premium
X / @FluxOfficials · Tue, Oct 13
The Officials' daily MOC post reports Dubai at $108.75/bbl with an $8.11 physical premium on Oct 13. No convergences noted. Traders reference this as evidence of sustained strength in physical markets amid geopolitical tensions. Read →
Reddit traders question Trump energy ceasefire amid Hormuz incidents
r/oil · Mon, Oct 12
r/oil daily price opinions thread sees users calling out alleged fake energy ceasefire announcements between Russia and Ukraine, with Zelensky denying knowledge and Russia continuing strikes. Discussion covers repeated tanker attacks in Hormuz/Arabian Sea and skepticism over diesel deals easing prices. Read →
BP debt shrinks on oil/gas trading and refining boost ahead of strategy update
X / @staunovo · Tue, Oct 13
Commodity analyst Staunovo flags BP's upcoming December strategy announcement after hitting debt targets on a windfall year. Trading and refining gains helped shrink debt. Traders see this as a key corporate signal in a high-price environment. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Croft: Transportation crisis driving oil
Helima Croft (RBC Capital Markets) on CNBC Power Lunch · Mon, Oct 12
We're in a transportation crisis. Watch/Listen →
US far more energy self-sufficient
Matt Smith (Kpler) on CNBC Squawk Box · Mon, Oct 12
The U.S. is much more energy self-sufficient than the rest of the world. Watch/Listen →
Oil futures miss true fundamentals
Oil futures are struggling to price in true fundamentals. Watch/Listen →
Market underappreciates geo risk
Bob McNally (Rapidan Energy) on Bloomberg Horizons · Mon, Oct 12
Oil market underappreciates geopolitical risk. Watch/Listen →
Diesel deficit 1M bpd persists
Amena Bakr (Kpler) on CNBC · Mon, Oct 12
Global diesel deficit remains around 1 million bpd. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
14%
-4pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
81%
+9pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
17%
+3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
20%
+1pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
7%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
8%
-4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
17%
+3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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