Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 47 stories
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Macro
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S&P 500 Fut
7,765
+0.09%
+7 |
Dollar Index
102.39
+0.07%
+0.07 |
EUR/USD
1.1126
-0.04%
-0.0005 |
US 10Y Yield
4.993
+0.7 bp
|
Last price as of Wed, Oct 28, 5:34 AM ET. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Crude up $1.48 (+1.3%) on Houthi ballistic missile claim against Saudi Ras Tanura refinery renewing supply disruption fears.
Newcastle down $2.90 (-1.9%).
JKM Asian LNG down $0.46 (-1.4%).
Iron Ore up $1.1 (+1.2%).
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $1.15 (+1.2%) on winter heating demand and LNG supply risks from Middle East shipping disruptions.
Coffee down $3.0 (-1.0%) on Brazilian real weakness after Lula election win spurring origin selling.
Newcastle down $2.90 (-1.9%).
JKM Asian LNG down $0.46 (-1.4%).
Iron Ore up $1.1 (+1.2%).
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $1.15 (+1.2%) on winter heating demand and LNG supply risks from Middle East shipping disruptions.
Coffee down $3.0 (-1.0%) on Brazilian real weakness after Lula election win spurring origin selling.
Drivers are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Glencore CEO sees $5bn+ trading profits, asset sales ahead
Daniel Thomas · Financial Times · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Glencore CEO Gary Nagle told investors 2027 looks set for strong cash returns from streamlining the portfolio and trading gains amid volatility. The company expects trading profits above $5 billion for 2026, its second-highest ever, and is eyeing multibillion-dollar sales of stakes in DR Congo and Kazakhstan operations by early next year. Read →
Copper holds near two-week high ahead of Fed decision
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Copper traded near its highest close in two weeks as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. Prices slipped 0.2% to $14,447.50 a ton on the LME but climbed more than 1% on Tuesday on AI sentiment and supply pressure signals. Read →
Iran threatens Sinokor with legal action over Hormuz crossings
Alice Hancock · Financial Times · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority warned South Korean shipowner Sinokor of legal action from November 1 for repeated violations of its transit rules in the Strait of Hormuz. The authority said Sinokor vessels had the highest number of crossing violations in the past three months and took enforcement action against seven ships. Read →
Gold dips as oil prices stoke inflation worries pre-Fed
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,030.20 an ounce as higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. US gold futures dropped 0.8% while analysts noted the Fed is likely to stay cautious on rates due to energy-driven inflation risks. Read →
Copper dominates LME Week amid supply, demand split
Andy Home · Reuters · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Copper remained the top pick at LME Week with three-quarters of attendees forecasting it as the best performer over the next year. Global inventories are ample but heavily concentrated in the US due to tariff uncertainty, leaving China and others short of metal. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
2. North American LPG prices hit multiyear highs amid strong domestic, export demand Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Nat Gas 3NGL/LPG & Petchems 3Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 2Coal 1Agriculture 3Fertilizers 2Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 2Regulation & Government 2Social buzz 5Podcasts 4Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Houthi missile attack on Saudi Ras Tanura refinery lifts Brent above $115 as supply risks reassert after Tuesday's dip.
Cash WTI 108.22 +1.67 | Cash Brent 128.27 +1.49 | Cash Br–TI 20.05 -0.18 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
101.89 | +2.0% +1.99 |
+77.4% | +68.5% | +23.0% |
| Brent Dec 2026 |
115.36 | +1.3% +1.48 |
+82.7% | +71.2% | +31.8% |
| RBOB Gasoline Nov 2026 |
3.146 | +0.3% +0.009 |
+81.3% | +56.6% | +27.0% |
| Heating Oil Nov 2026 |
4.738 | -0.8% -0.037 |
+117% | +89.6% | +82.6% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
30.25 | -5.1% -1.63 |
+95.5% +14.78 |
+26.7% +6.37 |
+42.2% +8.98 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
97.10 | -3.5% -3.56 |
+182% +62.69 |
+118% +52.60 |
+271% +70.94 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
52.53 | -4.1% -2.27 |
+141% +30.75 |
+70.8% +21.78 |
+129% +29.64 |
Oil rises over 1% on Saudi refinery attack
Arab News / Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Brent crude futures rose $1.59 or 1.4% to $115.47 a barrel and WTI gained $1.43 or 1.4% to $101.33 after Houthis struck Saudi Arabia's largest refinery with a ballistic missile. The attack renewed supply concerns from the key exporter following Tuesday's nearly $2 decline on diplomacy hopes. API data showed a 2.03 million barrel US crude stock draw, though analysts expect a small build; OPEC+ is set to hold December output targets steady on Sunday. Read →
Oil climbs on Houthi Ras Tanura refinery strike
CNBC · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Brent futures added $1.50 or 1.32% to $115.59 per barrel and WTI rose $1.47 or 1.47% to $101.37 as Tehran-backed Houthis claimed a ballistic missile hit on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery. President Trump reiterated that the Iran war would end on US terms and that Tehran must be blocked from nuclear weapons. Israel's inconclusive election adds further uncertainty to regional dynamics. Read →
Oil rises on persistent supply risks in Asia
Wall Street Journal · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Front-month WTI futures rose 0.6% to $100.47 a barrel and Brent advanced 0.5% to $114.45 in Asian trade as traders focused on ground-level developments rather than diplomacy. Saudi Arabia confirmed it contained a fire near its biggest export terminal at Ras Tanura after the reported attack. ANZ analysts noted that supply risks to crude continue to increase despite earlier talks. Read →
OPEC+ to hold December output targets steady
Olesya Astakhova and Ahmad Ghaddar · Reuters · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Seven core OPEC+ members are expected to leave December production targets unchanged at their Sunday meeting, shifting focus to 2027 quota negotiations. Gulf producers are boosting exports disrupted by the Iran conflict but most remain well below targets. The group completed a phased rollback of 1.65 million bpd cuts in September and still has another 2 million bpd layer in place through year-end. Read →
Chart of the dayGlobal Seaborne Refined Products Exports 2026 vs Medianvia @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 346 likesLine charts show sharp YoY drops in diesel, gasoline, jet and naphtha exports with latest levels 11-31% below median, highlighting acute refined product shortages
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · US natural gas prices rise to $3.04/MMBtu on higher LNG feedgas flows to 19.2 bcfd.
Cash Henry Hub 2.534 +0.038 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Nov 2026 |
2.723 | +1.0% +0.026 |
-17.4% | -9.8% | -47.4% |
US gas prices rise on higher LNG flows
Trading Economics · Wed, Oct 28, 8:38 AM ET
US natural gas prices rose to $3.04 per MMBtu on Wednesday, supported by rising LNG export activity. Feedgas deliveries to the nine major LNG export plants averaged 19.2 bcfd over the past two weeks, up from 18.3 bcfd so far this month. Gains were capped by forecasts for above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the country. Read →
US natgas prices climb as LNG flows increase
Reuters via Business Recorder · Tue, Oct 27, 11:46 PM ET
US natural gas futures for November delivery rose 6 cents, or 2%, to $2.662/MMBtu on Tuesday ahead of contract expiration. Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants rose to 18.3 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September, with daily LNG feedgas averaging 19.2 bcfd over the past two weeks. Lower 48 output averaged 112.0 bcfd so far in October, below prior record highs. Read →
US gas futures settle higher ahead of expiry
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Oct 27, 1:54 PM ET
US natural gas futures picked up ahead of Wednesday’s November contract expiry, settling up 3.7% at $2.697/MMBtu. Slightly cooler weather forecasts provided some support, though the two-week outlook remains for above-normal temperatures. Colder snaps in Europe and Asia could sustain high US LNG export terminal output. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane at 107.0¢/gal (-0.1%) as strong USGC exports and tight inventories support prices despite minor pullback.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.302 | -0.1% -0.000 |
+27.2% | +13.8% | -30.6% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.070 | -0.1% -0.001 |
+73.5% | +63.0% | -25.9% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.731 | +0.5% +0.008 |
+132% | +107% | +6.9% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.867 | +0.0% +0.000 |
+140% | +114% | +14.3% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.229 | -0.1% -0.002 |
+90.1% | +79.7% | +16.2% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 12 | unch | +10 | +6 | +3 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 82 | unch | +51 | +44 | -15 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -689 | +2 | -386 | -369 | -264 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -365 | +2 | -200 | -182 | -357 |
| C5 as % WTI | 92 | -2 | +6 | +6 | -5 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
ONEOK lifts 2026 guidance on record Permian NGL volumes
ONEOK · Tue, Oct 27, 6:00 PM ET
ONEOK reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $2.24B, up 6% YoY, driven by 6% higher NGL raw feed throughput including 16% growth in Gulf Coast/Permian. The company raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.5 to 8.6B midpoint on strong volumes and the Brazos acquisition, underscoring robust midstream demand for NGL handling from wellhead to fractionation and export. Read →
Panama Canal limits complicate US LPG shipments to Asia
Lloyd's List · Fri, Oct 26, 2026
Panama Canal Authority restrictions from low water levels have reduced Neopanamax and Panamax transits, forcing more VLGCs on longer Cape of Good Hope routes for USGC-to-Asia LPG cargoes. The constraints coincide with Asian buyers shifting toward US supplies amid Middle East disruptions, sustaining upward pressure on VLGC freight and delivered prices in East Asia. Read →
MPLX raises distribution 12.5% on NGL strength
MPLX / PR Newswire · Tue, Oct 27, 12:30 PM ET
MPLX declared a Q3 distribution of $1.2111 per unit, up 12.5% sequentially to a $4.84 annualized rate. The increase reflects the partnership's exposure to NGL gathering, processing, fractionation and export infrastructure amid sustained Permian and Gulf Coast volume growth. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF surges toward €98/MWh on depleted EU storage at 75% and Norwegian outages, JKM holds near $32/MMBtu with Asia premium.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
97.21 | +1.2% +1.15 |
+236% | +197% | +22.9% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
31.70 | +1.2% +0.37 |
+236% | +197% | +22.9% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.74 | -1.4% -0.46 |
+230% | +183% | -0.9% |
EU gas storage · gas day Mon, Oct 26
EU gas storage is 74.9% full, 849 TWh in store, 14.7 points below the five-year average for this date and 8.0 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 61.6%.
EU full 74.9% +0.01 pts d/d | Year ago 82.9% | 5-yr avg 89.6% same date |
Germany 61.6% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
European gas pauses surge as storage stays depleted
Pranav Kashyap · Investing.com / Yahoo Finance · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
TTF eased slightly Tuesday after hitting fresh highs near €97.64/MWh Monday on Norwegian supply cuts at Oseberg field escalating to 12.7 mcm/day. EU storage at 74.6% capacity marks the lowest late-October level since 2009 records began, well below the 86% historical average, anchoring a structural floor despite the pause. Depleted buffers and ongoing LNG supply disruptions from Middle East tensions sustain bullish pressure heading into winter. Read →
EU gas storage at 75% as summer refill lags
ACER · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
EU storage reached 75% by Oct 21 after a slow summer refill amid Middle East LNG flow disruptions and higher prices. Refill costs hit the second-highest decade average with US LNG rising to 30% of supply while Qatari and Russian volumes fell. The below-norm level tightens winter supply outlook and supports elevated TTF prices. Read →
Qatar extends force majeure on LNG to Edison until Dec
Reuters · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Edison and some Pakistani clients until end-December due to Iran war disruptions closing the Strait of Hormuz. Three additional cargoes for Edison are affected, compounding earlier cancellations since April. The halt tightens global LNG availability, bolstering TTF and JKM amid competition for cargoes. Read →
Cameron LNG train offline for maintenance
World Energy News / Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
One Cameron LNG train in Louisiana went offline for scheduled maintenance, cutting feedgas demand by 700 MMcf/d to 1.3 bcfd from the usual 2 bcfd. The three-train facility has 13.5 mtpa capacity; production fluctuates but customer service continues. The outage adds minor near-term US export tightness amid broader global supply constraints. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · China launches southern regional power market; US data-center pauses and PJM capacity costs dominate.
China launches southern regional power market
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
China’s National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration approved formal operation of the southern regional power market covering Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan. The market, with over 290,000 participants and daily volumes up to 4 TWh, aims to expand trading, integrate renewables and link with other regions. It marks a key step toward a unified national electricity market by 2030. Read →
Data centers 40% of PJM capacity auction costs
Utility Dive · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Monitoring Analytics reported data-center load (existing plus forecast) drove $6.5 billion, or 40%, of the $16.4 billion in PJM’s December capacity auction costs for the 2027/28 delivery year. Across the last three auctions, data-center forecasts accounted for 45% of total capacity costs. The monitor called data-center load growth the primary driver of tight supply, shortfalls and high prices. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · India thermal coal imports rebound to 15mn t in October on record power burn and post-monsoon demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
145.85 | -0.3% -0.40 |
+49.7% | +57.3% | -37.4% |
| Newcastle $/t |
153.00 | -1.9% -2.90 |
+44.7% | +36.6% | -10.0% |
China Datang bids for 180 Kt imported thermal coal
Sxcoal · Wed, Oct 28, 3:30 PM ET
China Datang issued three tenders totaling 180 Kt of imported thermal coal for delivery in November-December to plants in Jiangsu, Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Cargoes specify CV ranges of 3,600 to 5,500 kcal/kg NAR. The tenders signal ongoing Chinese utility restocking needs ahead of winter despite domestic production recovery efforts. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · US harvest surge drives corn and soy futures to multi-month lows amid heavy technical selling.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
450 | +0.2% +1 |
+2.2% | +3.6% | -20.1% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
610 | -0.1% -1 |
+20.3% | +14.6% | -21.1% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,247 | +0.3% +4 |
+21.0% | +15.4% | +1.0% |
| Sugar | 19.20 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+27.9% | +33.1% | -2.1% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
290.8 | -1.0% -3.0 |
-16.6% | -25.6% | +45.4% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,563 | -0.3% -14 |
-8.3% | -8.0% | +116% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
77.95 | -0.1% -0.11 |
+21.0% | +17.8% | -31.6% |
Corn and wheat export inspections decline week-to-week
Tony Dreibus · Agriculture.com · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
USDA reported corn export inspections at 625,233 metric tons for the week ended Oct. 22, down from 692,234 tons prior week and well below year-ago levels. Wheat inspections fell to 183,824 metric tons while soybean inspections rose to 2.48 million metric tons. The data underscore weakening corn and wheat export flows amid strong soybean shipments. Read →
Brazil election weighs on US soybean exports
Bruce Blythe · Farm Progress · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Lula's reelection strengthens Brazil-China soybean trade ties, pressuring US beans competitively. Corn futures hovered near 3.5-month lows overnight after harvest jumped to 60% complete. Soybeans showed a modest overnight bounce on technical buying following Monday's selloff. Read →
Wheat futures drop on Black Sea shipping talks
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
Chicago wheat futures fell as much as 2% to $6.125 per bushel, erasing the Black Sea risk premium built since July. Moscow signaled willingness to discuss proposals securing grain shipments through the region. The move removed a key support factor that had lifted prices earlier in the fall. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · U.S. retail fertilizer prices rise for third straight week as UAN32 jumps 6% to $486/ton amid ongoing supply pressures.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,694 | +0.5% +9 |
-3.1% | +3.6% | -31.4% |
| Egypt FOB $/t |
510.00 | +0.5% +2.50 |
-11.3% | +17.6% | -36.8% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
480.50 | +0.2% +1.00 |
+17.9% | +14.3% | -41.2% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
436.50 | +0.1% +0.25 |
+12.9% | +14.9% | -40.0% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.7% | +19.8% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
U.S. retail prices rise again as UAN32 jumps 6%
Kim Clarksen · Fertilizer Daily · Tue, Oct 27, 11:00 AM ET
DTN’s latest survey of agricultural retailers showed U.S. retail fertilizer prices rose for a third consecutive week in mid-October, with UAN32 up 6% month-on-month to $486 per ton. Anhydrous ammonia reached $987/ton and UAN28 $441/ton, both up 5%, while DAP, MAP, potash and urea also edged higher; all eight tracked nutrients now exceed year-ago levels. DTN attributed the gains to supply pressure from the Strait of Hormuz conflict, China’s export restrictions, a global sulfur shortage and Nutrien’s indefinite Trinidad nitrogen shutdown. Read →
Nutrien indefinitely shuts Trinidad nitrogen complex
Nutrien · Mon, Oct 5 (updated coverage through Oct 26 to 27)
Nutrien announced it will indefinitely shut down its Point Lisas nitrogen operations in Trinidad and Tobago after a strategic review, citing ongoing natural gas supply constraints and uncertainty. The facility had been under controlled shutdown since October 2025; the permanent closure removes capacity that historically supplied ammonia and urea to North and Latin American markets. The company said the move has no impact on 2026 nitrogen sales guidance as it had already assumed zero production from the site and will grow volumes from North American assets. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · LME zinc rises on falling inventories and Chinese export surge amid tight global stocks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,644 | -0.2% -22 |
+18.0% | +26.9% | +49.7% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,581 | +0.5% +68 |
+14.8% | +36.5% | +52.8% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,157 | +0.2% +6 |
+6.1% | +20.9% | +0.5% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,433 | +0.3% +10 |
+14.3% | +24.7% | +9.4% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,618 | -0.3% -54 |
-7.8% | +3.0% | -20.5% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,177 | +0.2% +4 |
-1.2% | +3.0% | +9.1% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
51,512 | +0.3% +136 |
+22.6% | +45.6% | +34.5% |
Zinc market splits as China exports surge while global stocks tighten.
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Chinese smelters exported 111,000 tons of refined zinc in August-September, helping LME stocks recover from an August low of 92,550 tons to 165,650 tons. Treatment charges have turned deeply negative, pressuring smelters outside China while Chinese output rises. LME cash premiums have widened again to $118 per ton, signaling renewed near-term tightness. Read →
Chinese firms plan 15 million tons of overseas aluminium capacity.
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Chinese investors have announced or planned at least 15 million tons per year of new primary aluminium smelting capacity abroad, with 2.85 million tons already ramping up. This expansion, focused on Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, is expected to shift the global market from a 1.1 million-ton deficit this year to an 830,000-ton surplus in 2027. Domestic capacity remains capped at 45 million tons under 2017 policy. Read →
Copper rises on AI rebound and China import scramble.
Reuters · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
LME three-month copper gained up to 1.1% to $14,487.50 per ton, its highest since October 16, supported by recovering AI stocks and strong Chinese demand. The Yangshan import premium hit a nearly 13-year high of $188 per ton while SHFE copper stocks fell more than 25% to 54,356 tons amid smelter maintenance. The cash LME contract traded at a $199.50 premium to three-month metal, the widest since late August. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · SGX iron ore futures hit two-year lows at $89.25/t on weak China demand and rising Q4 supply from majors and Simandou.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
89.2 | +1.2% +1.1 |
-11.4% | -8.7% | -13.3% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
405 | -0.5% -2 |
+2.7% | +5.6% | -48.9% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
415 | +0.1% +0 |
+0.7% | +2.1% | -48.0% |
Iron ore futures hit two-year lows on weak China demand.
Katharine Gemmell · Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
SGX benchmark futures fell as much as 1.4% to $89.25/t, the lowest intraday since September 2024; DCE prices also hit two-year lows. Seasonally weak Chinese steel consumption and expected 18Mt higher shipments from the four major miners plus Simandou ramp-up are pressuring prices, with mills buying hand-to-mouth amid high port stocks. Read →
Futures hit two-year lows despite IMF benchmark steadying.
Aditi Sarkar · Kalkine · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
SGX futures traded down 1.2% at $89.40/t and DCE most-traded contract fell 1.19% to 662 yuan/t on Oct 27. Thin mill margins, high Chinese port stocks and rising Q4 supply from BHP, Rio Tinto and Simandou keep buying cautious despite the IMF 62% Fe benchmark rising 0.82% to 100.44. Read →
Fortescue warns of output cuts if CMRG deal misses year-end.
Financial Times · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Fortescue reported Q1 FY27 shipments of 46.8Mt but sales of only 42.9Mt due to ongoing CMRG talks, creating a 3.9Mt gap and building inventories. The miner said operations and full-year 197 to 207Mt guidance could face adjustments if no deal is reached by Dec 31, while Rio Tinto has already agreed terms with the state buyer. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold edges higher to $4,062/oz as oil retreats and dip-buying supports prices ahead of Fed decision.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,066 | -0.2% -9 |
-6.3% | +1.6% | +126% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
54.05 | -0.8% -0.46 |
-22.9% | +13.3% | +124% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,547 | +0.6% +9 |
-24.0% | -2.8% | +51.2% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,024 | -0.4% -5 |
-37.1% | -28.4% | -48.7% |
Gold edges higher ahead of Fed decision
The Economic Times · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,061.86/oz after a prior 1%+ gain, with futures steady near $4,075.60. Traders await the Fed decision and PCE data, expecting a hold today but pricing an 84% chance of a December hike. Lower oil prices from Middle East de-escalation hopes reduced inflation pressure on bullion. Read →
Chinese households buy gold dip as prices test $4,000
Yihui Xie, Jack Ryan and Heng Xie · Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 volumes hit 43 million lots (430 tonnes) last week, the highest since April, reflecting physical demand as prices fell. Chinese retail buying via accumulation plans accelerated, with first-nine-months purchases already exceeding 2025 full-year totals. This household demand provides support near $4,000 amid equity and property weakness. Read →
Silver falls, gold rallies as China retail jumps, ETFs sell
BullionVault / Scrap Monster · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Gold-backed ETFs recorded the first weekly net outflow in a month (13 tonnes), led by North American redemptions, while Chinese physical demand surged. Silver hit an 11-month low near $52.68/oz before partial recovery. The divergence highlights Asia physical buying offsetting Western ETF selling near multi-month lows. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · France's envoy says Western rare earth diversification from China possible in 3 to 5 years as projects accelerate.
France envoy: West can diversify rare earths from China in 3 to 5 years
Melanie Burton · Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
France's Interministerial Delegate for Strategic Minerals and Metals Supply Benjamin Gallezot said Western nations could reach acceptable diversification from China's 90% share of specialized rare earth magnets in 3 to 5 years by accelerating projects from Solvay, Carester and others in Australia, the US, Japan, Brazil and India. G7 nations target reducing reliance on any single non-G7 supplier below 60% by 2030. Magnet manufacturing capacity remains a potential bottleneck. Read →
Malaysia approves first raw rare earth export for R&D
East Asia Brief / Straits Times / Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Malaysia's Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability approved the first export of unprocessed rare earth minerals (up to 700 tonnes of carbonate from Perak by DTEC Mineral and Metal Technology, a US-majority-owned firm) on Oct. 22 under October guidelines easing the 2024 moratorium. Initial 30-tonne shipment heads to the US for R&D on separating heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium from ionic clay. DTEC committed to building local processing capacity; Lynas operates Malaysia's main non-Chinese refinery. Read →
Energy Fuels gets A$180M Australian loans for Donald REE project
Mining.com / company announcement / FT · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Export Finance Australia and the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation conditionally approved up to A$180 million (US$126 million) as part of a proposed A$200 million senior debt facility for Phase 1 of the Donald rare earth and mineral sands project in Victoria. The project targets 9,000 tpa REE concentrate (including NdPr, Tb, Dy) plus heavy mineral concentrate; FID expected by end-2026. Energy Fuels is earning a 49% JV interest to feed its US mine-to-magnet chain alongside its White Mesa processing. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · BDI falls to 2603 on Oct 27, third straight decline as Capesize and Panamax rates ease amid softening dry-bulk demand.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.35M | -6.0% | +1679% | 224.7 | 30.65 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$429k | -22.1% | +621% | 120.8 | 16.48 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$209k | -16.0% | +299% | 122.7 | 16.74 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$329k | +9.7% | +1076% | 214.2 | 28.75 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$245k | +13.7% | +1080% | 228.5 | 25.67 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$62k | -3.1% | +74.6% | 89.7 | 10.55 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$78k | +8.3% | +273% | 106.8 | 14.34 |
Report of Oct 22, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
BDI drops 0.95% to 2603, third straight decline as all segments weaken.
汇通财经 · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index fell 25 points or 0.95% to 2603 on Oct 27, its lowest in five days and third consecutive decline. Capesize (BCI) slipped 0.64% to 3702, Panamax (BPI) dropped 2.60% to 2021, and Supramax (BSI) eased 0.26% to 1883. The pullback signals softening near-term demand for iron ore, coal and grain cargoes. Read →
Drewry WCI climbs 2% to $4585/FEU, highest in 15 weeks on Asia-Europe and transp
Fibre2Fashion / Drewry · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
The Drewry World Container Index rose 3.5% or $59 to $1746/FEU (or $4585 composite in some reports) for the week ending Oct 23, its second consecutive gain. Shanghai-Los Angeles jumped 4% and Shanghai-New York 6%, while Asia-Europe routes also firmed. Carriers plan November GRIs and blank sailings to support rates ahead of contract negotiations despite easing port congestion. Read →
LNG Shipping Market Recovering
Emily Carter · World Ports Organization / Baltic Exchange · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
LNG freight rates recovered this week with BLNG1 Australia-Japan up $4800 to $32800/day and BLNG3 US Gulf-Japan gaining $10300 to $58900/day. Increased fixing activity absorbed some tonnage amid tighter vessel availability for late-November and December cargoes. Competition among owners kept gains measured while eastbound premiums held. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs trade near €88 after hitting 9-month high on energy-driven buying.
EUAs near 9-month high at €88 on energy buying
Alessandro Vitelli · Carbon Pulse · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
European carbon allowance prices traded around €88 and briefly reached a nine-month high Tuesday before closing slightly lower, supported by energy market strength despite some softening in power and gas prices. The move reflects sustained buying interest tied to colder weather forecasts and bullish year-end outlooks. Higher EUA prices tighten compliance costs for covered emitters in power and industry. Read →
BofA sees EUAs hitting €100 this winter on gas shock
Theodora Stankova · Carbon Herald · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Bank of America Global Research forecasts EUAs could reach €100/t this winter as elevated natural gas prices linked to the Iran conflict make coal-fired generation more economic, boosting emissions and allowance demand. The bank notes limited coal capacity may cap the switch but highlights CBAM and free-allocation phase-out as additional supports. Prices are seen moderating below €80/t in H2 2027 as LNG supplies ease. Read →
Verra delays VCS v5 rollout to July 2027
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
Verra postponed the mandatory effective date for most VCS Version 5 requirements and templates from January 1 to July 1, 2027, after feedback on audit backlogs and VVB capacity. Projects can finish ongoing Version 4 work before transitioning. The delay provides more time for developers and verifiers but maintains the push for stronger safeguards and integrity standards in the voluntary market. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC guidance clearing tokenized assets for CFTC-registered commodities firms fuels on-chain commodity adoption.
CFTC clears tokenized assets for commodities firms.
CryptoSynk · Tue, Oct 27, 2026
The CFTC updated guidance allowing supervised commodities firms to invest customer funds in tokenized versions of permitted assets, provided legal and economic rights match traditional forms. It also confirmed blockchain or distributed ledger technology can satisfy recordkeeping obligations without needing off-chain backups in some cases. The move provides regulatory clarity for on-chain commodity exposure amid rising tokenized gold and energy products. Read →
Tokenized commodities near $4B amid gold rally.
Zoltan Vardai · Cointelegraph · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
Tokenized commodities reached $3.93 billion, up 11% in the prior month per RWA.xyz data, led by Tether Gold at $1.74 billion and Paxos Gold at $1.61 billion. Spot gold hit record highs near $4,530 per ounce and silver briefly touched $74.56, driving demand for on-chain precious-metals exposure. Ethereum holds the majority share of tokenized RWAs as trading extends beyond traditional market hours. Read →
Stellar RWA value up 5.5x year-over-year.
TokenPost · Wed, Oct 28, 2026, 1:29 AM ET
Stellar’s tokenized real-world asset value grew 5.5 times over the past year. Only 0.1% of the assets serve as collateral in DeFi protocols. The growth highlights expanding on-chain commodity and asset tokenization across networks including those supporting gold and other commodities. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · EQT-Range $13B all-stock deal and Equinor doubling profit on oil/gas prices drive corporate activity.
Equinor Q3 profit doubles; raises 2026 output view
Reuters · Wed, Oct 28, 5:49 AM ET
Equinor reported adjusted earnings before tax of $12.4 billion for Q3, double the year-ago level and above consensus, on higher realized oil and European gas prices amid Middle East disruptions. Equity production rose 2% to 2.166 million boe/d, prompting the company to lift its full-year 2026 output growth target to around 4% from 3%. Strong downstream trading and refining margins further boosted results. Read →
Expand Energy beats Q3 estimates on higher output
Reuters · Tue, Oct 27, 8:07 PM ET
Expand Energy posted adjusted EPS of $1.46, beating the $1.27 consensus, as Q3 natural gas production climbed to 7.54 bcfe/d and the company narrowed its full-year guidance to 7.45 to 7.55 bcfe/d. Rival EQT reported lower net income of $279 million amid weaker output and prices but highlighted its pending Range deal that would create output exceeding Expand's. U.S. producers continue benefiting from data-center and LNG demand despite soft prices. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · USTR proposes two-month extension of China shipping-fee truce to Jan 9 amid ongoing trade talks.
USTR seeks two-month China port-fee truce extension to Jan 9
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 27, 8:06 AM ET
The Office of the US Trade Representative proposed extending the suspension of Section 301 port fees and related duties on Chinese-linked ships calling at US ports by two months, from early November until January 9, 2027. The move follows a broader US-China trade truce and aims to allow more time for negotiations over China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding practices. Lower shipping costs support commodity exports including US metals and coal by avoiding the tit-for-tat fees imposed in 2025. Read →
CFTC reviews oil trades during Iran conflict
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 23, 3:26 PM ET
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated that the agency's enforcement division has been examining oil futures trading activity since March 23, including a sharp spike equivalent to at least 6 million barrels sold in two minutes just before President Trump reversed threats against Iranian power plants. Selig emphasized that oversight remains a priority. The review targets potential manipulation or improper timing in energy derivatives markets. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Houthi strike claim on key Saudi refinery spikes oil
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 27
Traders on X are reacting to Houthi claims of a ballistic missile hit on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery at Ras Tanura, which has 550k bpd capacity. Oil prices rebounded sharply after Tuesday's dip on diplomacy hopes, with Brent up over $1 to around $115 to 116 and WTI near $101. Supply risk from ongoing Middle East attacks is keeping the geopolitical premium alive despite de-escalation talks. Read →
Oil rebounds on Saudi refinery attack fears
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 27
Discussions across X highlight oil's bounce following Houthi claims of striking Ras Tanura, reigniting concerns over Saudi exports amid the Iran conflict. Brent and WTI are climbing again after a near-$2 drop on peace talks, with market participants noting persistent tanker and refinery risks. Reuters and other reports confirm the price reaction to the unverified but market-moving claim. Read →
r/oil debates oil swings on Hormuz and Saudi risks
r/oil · Tue, Oct 27
Retail traders in r/oil's active daily thread are analyzing Brent near $115 to 117 and WTI around $100 to 103, focusing on Houthi strikes, Hormuz disruptions, and conflicting diplomacy signals. Sentiment mixes caution on supply squeezes with skepticism over quick resolutions, with users tracking tanker traffic and inventory data. The thread shows crowded positioning around geopolitical oil volatility. Read →
Uranium bulls eye supply gaps and term ceilings
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 27
Uranium-focused accounts on X note long positions amid nominal all-time highs, with term contract ceilings rising toward $160 and utilities still locking in below replacement costs. Discussions emphasize lack of supply response before 2028 and better fundamentals than the 2020 setup. Retail sentiment remains constructive despite price action. Read →
Gold holds as oil inflation complicates Fed view
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 27
Commodity watchers on X link gold's resilience to oil price surges stoking inflation concerns and higher-for-longer rate expectations. Prices are discussed in the context of recent dips but with support from geopolitical risks. Broader metals conversations tie gold to energy market volatility. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Mike McGlone: commodities now 'stock puppets'
Mike McGlone on The Hub by Tradier (podcast) · Mon, Oct 26
Commodities and crypto have become 'stock puppets' with highest-ever S&P correlations. Watch/Listen →
Daan Struyven: $27/barrel is fear premium
Daan Struyven on Goldman Sachs Exchanges (podcast) · Wed, Oct 22
$27 of every Brent barrel is a geopolitical risk premium, not fundamentals. Watch/Listen →
Rory Johnston hosts Samir Madani on tanker flows
Rory Johnston (Oil Ground Up podcast) · Sat, Oct 25
Iranian attacks on commercial shipping are reshaping oil flows and costs through Hormuz. Watch/Listen →
Bart Melek: energy prices keep markets tight
Bart Melek on MoneyTalk (video) · Mon, Oct 26
Even if peace broke out, oil stays in the $80 to 90 range for 12 to 18 months due to inventory refill needs. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12%
unch
US-Iran ceasefire holds through December 31
28%
-7pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by December 31
18%
+7pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
14%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US recession by end of 2026
8%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
17%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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