Oil

U.S. crude settled down 2.3% at $71.83 a barrel and Brent fell 2.5% to $76.05 after renewed U.S. and Iranian strikes failed to sustain gains. Investors favored chip stocks on AI optimism while downplaying Gulf risks despite ebbing Hormuz traffic. The pullback follows Wednesday's 4-5% jump on escalation fears. Read →

Ukrainian drones struck 14 Russian ships in the Sea of Azov on Thursday, bringing the four-day total to 35 and targeting fuel deliveries to occupied Crimea. Nationwide Russian gasoline shortages have produced long queues at stations following strikes on refineries including Omsk. The campaign aims to choke logistics supporting Russian forces in the south. Read →

Global oil demand is forecast to decline 1.1 mb/d year-on-year in 2026, a 700 kb/d downgrade from May, after 2Q deliveries fell 5 mb/d amid high prices and product disruptions. Supply is expected to drop 3.9 mb/d this year before rebounding sharply in 2027. The first annual contraction since 2020 reflects war-related destruction spreading across regions and sectors. Read →

Brent and WTI are set for a net weekly advance despite Thursday's retreat as renewed U.S.-Iran clashes keep Strait of Hormuz flow risks elevated. Shipping activity has ebbed again after earlier recovery during the ceasefire. Markets weigh persistent geopolitical premium against recovering tanker traffic and OPEC+ output increases. Read →

Both benchmarks settled at multi-week highs with Brent up more than 5% to $78.02 and WTI up over 5% to $73.52 before post-settlement gains exceeded $1. Trump threatened additional strikes and said the interim Iran deal was over while the US revoked sanctions relief on Iranian oil sales after tanker attacks in Hormuz. Read →

Brent surged 4.7% to $78.42 and WTI rose 5.9% to $74.61 in early trade after Trump said the ceasefire was over and the US revoked Iran's oil-sales waiver. The front-month curve shifted back into backwardation, signaling renewed premium for prompt crude amid fears of supply disruptions from renewed Persian Gulf hostilities. Read →

Front-month WTI rose 0.9% to $74.20 and Brent gained 1.0% to $78.78 following continued US strikes on Iran. Markets priced in sustained war-risk premium and reduced tanker traffic through Hormuz after the latest escalation. Read →

Brent futures jumped nearly 7% and briefly topped $80 while WTI gained around 6% after Trump assessed the interim peace deal as over and US forces launched a second night of strikes. The moves revived supply concerns for the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tanker attacks. Read →

Brent crude rose more than 3% to $76.48 per barrel, the highest since June 23, after the US launched strikes on Iran and revoked a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales. The moves followed attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which the US blamed on Iran and described as a ceasefire violation. Renewed supply disruption fears through the key waterway drove the rebound from pre-war price levels. Read →

WTI rose 6.25% to $74.83 per barrel and Brent jumped 6% to $78.64 per barrel after President Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire is over and the US conducted strikes on Iran. The escalation followed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Treasury's revocation of a waiver allowing Iranian oil sales. Markets reacted to heightened risks of renewed Middle East supply disruptions. Read →

API data showed US crude stocks fell 399,000 barrels in the week to July 3, extending a multi-month draw, while gasoline and distillate inventories also declined sharply. SPR stocks continued to deplete with another 6.2 million barrels released. The draws occurred even as some Hormuz tanker traffic resumed, underscoring tight US market conditions ahead of fresh geopolitical risks. Read →

The US revoked a temporary license authorizing Iranian oil sales through August and launched strikes on Iran following attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver had been part of a June interim deal reopening the waterway. Oil prices rose on the renewed escalation and sanctions reinstatement, threatening the fragile truce. Read →

The US military struck Iran and revoked the general license permitting Iranian crude and product sales after three tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran was given until July 17 to wind down transactions. The actions followed a fragile June ceasefire and raised fresh risks of supply disruptions through the vital chokepoint. Read →

Saudi Aramco set its August Arab Light OSP to Asia at a $1.50/bbl discount to Oman/Dubai, an $11 cut from July and the largest on record, as the kingdom battles for market share against cheaper Gulf rivals and high shipping costs inside the Gulf. Read →

UAE crude production rose above 3.8 million bpd in June after quitting OPEC in May, the highest since April 2020 and ahead of pre-war levels, as Abu Dhabi capitalizes on quota freedom and the partial reopening of Hormuz. Read →

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories dropped 6.2 million barrels in the week to July 3 to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest since April 1983, as draws continue amid post-conflict supply dynamics. Read →

A commercial tanker was struck by a projectile near Limah, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, catching fire; Iranian Revolutionary Guards are reported to have fired missiles at commercial vessels, renewing risks to Hormuz traffic. Read →

OPEC+ core members agreed during a Sunday video meeting to raise quotas another 188,000 bpd from August, part of nearly 800,000 bpd in cumulative hikes since April. Gulf exports jumped over 3 million bpd in June but remain 40% below pre-war levels as Hormuz traffic gradually resumes. Read →

Shipping data showed 10 Japan-linked vessels, including six VLCCs carrying 12 million barrels of Saudi, UAE and Qatari crude, exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. A separate VLCC with 2 million barrels of Saudi crude for South Korea's S-Oil also cleared the strait Saturday after months stranded by the conflict. Read →

Seven major OPEC+ nations reached preliminary agreement to add 188,000 bpd to August output targets, building toward nearly 1 million bpd in total quota increases since the Iran conflict began. The hikes come as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz shows signs of recovery under a US-protected corridor. Read →

Citigroup analysts said Brent could drop to $60 a barrel by year-end because shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz are normalizing, Chinese demand remains weak, and physical crude markets have softened sharply. Inventories have drawn far less than expected, allowing fundamentals to reassert themselves over the geopolitical risk premium. This adds to broader bearish forecasts for the second half of 2026. Read →

Front-month WTI settled up 2.2% at $70.75 a barrel and Brent rose 1.6% to $73.15 after U.S. and Iranian strikes over the weekend raised fresh supply disruption worries around the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted the risk premium has declined but insurers are pulling back from rapid tanker movements, keeping traffic at reduced levels. Markets expect flows to continue for an extended period even as depleted inventories may provide later support. Read →

Brent settled at $71.80 a barrel, up 0.32%, and WTI finished at $68.69, up 0.16%, as buyers covered shorts ahead of the long U.S. Independence Day weekend. Gains followed progress in U.S.-Iran talks in Doha and continued tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The modest recovery came after recent declines erased much of the prior geopolitical premium. Read →

Brent fell 0.85% to $70.96/bbl and WTI 1.15% to $67.79/bbl on optimism over indirect US-Iran talks in Doha on shipping through Hormuz. President Trump said negotiations were going well and denuclearization was progressing. Markets priced in reduced risk of Middle East supply disruptions. Read →

Seven OPEC+ members plan another 188,000 bpd quota increase from August, matching prior months, as Hormuz reopens and prices fall. Cumulative hikes since April total nearly 800,000 bpd amid recovering flows. Output had dropped sharply during the Iran conflict. Read →

Brent dropped below $71/bbl to pre-war levels amid progress in US-Iran indirect talks in Doha via Qatar mediators. Hopes rose for a permanent ceasefire and full Hormuz reopening. Prices have fallen sharply from war peaks as supply concerns ease. Read →

Brent futures rose 33 cents to $73.28/bbl and WTI climbed 34 cents to $69.84/bbl in Asian trade. Iran refused direct US talks in Doha, meeting mediators instead, amid patchy Hormuz reopening. US API data showed a 6.1 million barrel crude inventory drop last week. Read →

A Reuters poll of 31 analysts cut 2026 Brent forecast to $84.50/bbl from $90.44 and WTI to $79.49 from $84.63. Demand growth for 2026 was revised down 1-2M bpd due to weaker China consumption. OPEC+ kept its demand growth forecast below 1M bpd in June. Read →

No North Sea Brent cargoes are scheduled for August due to declining production, the first such month. Platts added other grades including WTI Midland to maintain liquidity. Brent loadings averaged 23,000 bpd in 2026 so far, down sharply from a decade ago. Read →

API estimated US commercial crude stocks dropped 6.072M barrels in the week to June 26. Gasoline inventories also fell 2.106M barrels. SPR stocks hit a four-decade low at 325.7M barrels after another 5.5M barrel draw. Read →

Iraq is aggressively seeking a higher OPEC production quota due to economic crisis from the Iran war and new oil investments by majors. Baghdad's push follows the UAE's exit from OPEC, adding pressure on the group still dealing with conflict fallout. Iraq is OPEC's second-largest producer with a designated target of 4.3 million b/d. Read →

Oil tankers kept navigating the Strait of Hormuz despite attacks over the past several days that made some owners more cautious. Ship-tracking data showed three tankers heading inbound late Monday and two sailing out earlier; two more supertankers appeared set to depart the Gulf. Traffic dropped off after the incidents. Read →

Renewed tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, including on a Qatar-linked tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, slowed energy shipments through the key chokepoint. Brent rose 52 cents to $72.51/bbl and WTI gained 71 cents to $69.94/bbl by late Monday. Traffic had risen sharply last week after an interim peace deal but has since eased amid the fresh escalation. Read →

Ukrainian drones struck the Slavyansk refinery in Krasnodar (300 km from the front) and a facility in Yaroslavl (700 km away), according to President Zelenskiy. The attacks target Russia's fuel supply chain, with footage showing fires and smoke at the sites. Putin vowed to strengthen defenses of oil facilities amid growing domestic fuel shortages. Read →

The US diesel futures crack spread reached a three-week high as WTI fell 22% this month while ULSD futures dropped just over 9%. Analysts attribute resilient refiner margins to persistent distillate supply tightness expected to last even after the Iran truce. Traders remain cautious about potential renewed Middle East tensions. Read →

A surge in Middle East crude exports via the reopened Strait of Hormuz, 20 million barrels exited in one recent 24-hour period, has flipped front-month Brent into contango for the first time since the war began. August Brent traded 41 cents below September, signaling near-term oversupply as 20% of global oil flows resume. The market faces months of rebalancing as shut-in production restarts. Read →

Brent traded near $72/bbl after paring early gains of up to 1.9% once the US and Iran agreed to stop attacks following weekend flare-ups. A supertanker hit near the Strait of Hormuz triggered the latest round, testing the interim ceasefire. WTI held around $70 amid ongoing uncertainty over sustained Hormuz traffic recovery. Read →

The UN International Maritime Organization paused its ship-escort operation through the Strait of Hormuz after a Singapore-flagged Evergreen vessel was struck by an unknown object (likely drone) near Oman on a UKMTO-recommended route. Two U.S. officials attributed the attack to Iran, while Tehran warned ships using unauthorized routes face consequences. The pause reignites doubts over the durability of the U.S.-Iran interim deal reopening the strait, even as more stranded tankers exit and Saudi Aramco resumes loading at Ras Tanura. Read →

Brent and WTI have fallen sharply back toward pre-U.S.-Iran war levels just 11 days after the 60-day Hormuz reopening deal, driven by surging tanker transits through the strait. A surge of Gulf supply is hitting the market faster than expected, pressuring prices lower despite the earlier conflict premium. Analysts note the rapid recovery disrupts prior assumptions that supply normalization would take months. Read →

Iraq has considered exiting OPEC if the group does not grant it a significantly higher production quota, according to sources familiar with Baghdad's oil policy. The founding member is weighing all options amid frustration with current limits, following the UAE's recent departure. This adds internal strain to OPEC+ at a time of shifting supply dynamics from the Hormuz reopening. Read →

Brent crude fell about 2% to near $73.84/bbl and WTI to around $70.54/bbl on Friday as more tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz and Aramco resumed loadings. The price drop occurred even after the attack on the Evergreen vessel, with markets focusing on the accelerating supply recovery rather than the isolated incident. Both benchmarks are on track for steep weekly losses. Read →

Brent crude briefly fell below $72.48 a barrel, matching the price the day before US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February. The drop follows a US-Iran MOU on June 17 that includes partial sanctions relief on Iranian oil exports and a communication line for safe Hormuz passage. Kpler data shows a significant rise in vessels transiting the strait since the agreement, including crude carriers, though volumes remain below pre-war levels. Read →

A stream of cargoes out of the Strait of Hormuz accelerated after the US-Iran agreement, leaving key market segments suddenly awash in supply. Dated Brent had topped $140 per barrel in early April amid disruptions; reopening is proceeding well and quickly per market participants. Buyers face inundation from Middle East and African offers, driving a dramatic reversal in physical market dynamics. Read →

Crude benchmarks extended losses as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes following the interim US-Iran deal. Brent slid further toward pre-conflict levels amid unwinding of risk premiums built during escalation. The normalization of Gulf flows is reducing supply fears that had supported prices since late February. Read →

Brent crude futures fell $3.32 or 4.3% to $73.76 a barrel, the weakest since February 27. WTI slipped $3.02 to $70.19, lowest since March 3. Signs of more tankers moving out of the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran sanctions relief eased supply fears, pressuring prices while JP Morgan cut its H2 2026 Brent forecast. Read →

President Trump posted calls to boost US drilling and demanded market players keep oil prices down after US strikes on Iran. Oil prices jumped nearly 6% early then fell 7.3% as Iran's retaliation avoided major supply disruptions. Energy Secretary Wright backed more drilling amid ongoing volatility. Read →

US crude fell 7.2% to $68.51, biggest one-day drop since early April after Iran struck a US base in Qatar with no casualties or oil flow disruption. Prices reversed from a 6% overnight spike to $78.50. Stocks rallied as limited retaliation reduced immediate Middle East supply risk premium. Read →

President Trump confronted potential economic blowback from US military strikes on Iran, demanding companies keep oil prices down via social media. The moves threatened to push energy prices higher for US consumers already strained. Markets reacted with volatility as retaliation remained limited. Read →

Brent fell $4.34 or 6.1% to $67.14 and WTI $4.14 to $64.37 on expectations the ceasefire would cut supply disruption risks in the Middle East. Prices hit two-week lows as hostilities eased after US President Trump's intervention. Markets priced in reduced geopolitical premium. Read →

Brent fell $1.09 or 1.4% to $76.81 per barrel and WTI dropped 1.2% to $72.99. Two crude tankers carrying nearly 2 million barrels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. ING noted gradual flow increases continue to weigh on prices. Read →

US Treasury issued 60-day general license from Monday allowing production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil. Brent fell 1.4% to around $76.83. Talks in Switzerland aim at permanent peace and Hormuz passage. Read →

Asia seaborne crude imports are on track for 22.18 million bpd in June, up from 20.35 million bpd in May and nearing pre-conflict levels. Refined product exports, however, lag at 9.20 million bpd versus 10.56 million bpd pre-war, with inventories drawn down and jet/gasoil/gasoline prices holding large premiums over crude. Refinery margins remain elevated at around $11.51/bbl in Singapore. Read →

Sellers are offering Iranian Light crude cargoes for July arrival at $2.50-$5/bbl discounts to Brent, wider than the prior $1 discount, as more shipments exit Hormuz following the interim US deal. Iranian exports have surged with multiple supertankers transiting, increasing visible supply to buyers including China. Read →

At least four tankers carrying crude, products and LPG entered the Strait of Hormuz on Friday heading to Iraqi ports, with Iranian-flagged supertankers also moving volumes. Gulf producers prepare higher exports, yet Iran signals vessels must coordinate with Revolutionary Guards navy, raising uncertainty over sustained flows. Read →

OPEC's 2026 World Oil Outlook kept its robust demand forecast, projecting world oil use at 113.3 million bpd in 2030 and 124 million bpd by 2050, up slightly from prior estimates. It cited supportive policy shifts on energy security and affordability plus slower EV adoption in Europe and US policy changes. OPEC sees US shale output peaking in 2025 with modest growth thereafter. Read →

US crude inventories fell for a 10th straight week, dropping 17.2 million barrels to 758.5 million, the lowest since March 1985, as demand surged amid the Iran war. Commercial and SPR stocks combined hit multi-decade lows while Brent traded near $79.42/bbl. Read →

WTI settled down 5.8% at $76.05 and Brent fell 5.1% to $78.96 after the US-Iran pact raised expectations of quick resumption of Middle East flows. Analysts said markets are pricing a sustainable opening of the Strait of Hormuz with limited regard to remaining nuclear and compensation details. Read →

The US-Iran memorandum of understanding is now in effect after electronic signing, allowing immediate Iranian oil sales and setting a 60-day window for broader talks. LNG and products tankers have already begun crossing the strait on approved routes. Read →

Brent fell 15 cents to $78.81 a barrel and WTI fell 12 cents to $75.93. Investors weighed details of the interim US-Iran peace deal allowing Iran oil sales upon signing while uncertainty lingered over full Hormuz reopening and tanker traffic recovery. US crude stocks fell 8.3 million barrels last week per API data. Read →

Front-month WTI rose 0.6% to $76.54 in early Asian trade. Analysts noted the US-Iran deal is positive but warned full Hormuz normalization could take until late July with near-full output restoration by end-September. Prices had fallen for four straight sessions prior. Read →

Brent steadied near $79 after dropping as much as 1.1% while WTI held above $76. Markets priced in a wave of supply from the expected Hormuz reopening under the US-Iran deal. Oil hit fresh three-month lows on the supply outlook. Read →

Brent briefly dipped to $79.96, the lowest since March 3 shortly after the Iran war began. WTI crossed below $78. Prices fell on optimism over the US-Iran deal and expected reopening of Hormuz blocked since late February. Read →

The US is readying waivers allowing Iran to export oil and fuel immediately upon signing the deal ending the war. Waivers cover necessary services including banking, transportation and insurance. The interim pact extends a 60-day ceasefire for further talks. Read →

Brent fell below $83 a barrel for a fourth straight day and WTI near $80 as the interim US-Iran deal boosted expectations for supply revival. Leading Wall Street banks cut price forecasts, with the agreement set for formal signing in Switzerland on Friday. Markets price in normalization of flows through the chokepoint that handles a fifth of global oil and LNG. Read →

Brent crude futures dropped 4.8% to $83.17 a barrel, its lowest close since early March, and WTI fell 4.9% to $80.75 after the interim peace deal. President Trump stated the Strait of Hormuz would be completely open on Friday. Stocks rallied worldwide on reduced energy-price inflation risks from the de-escalation. Read →

Industry officials say full return to pre-war production and refining levels will likely take weeks, months or years after Hormuz reopening. Some fields like in Iraq can restart in under a week, but others require longer repairs and controlled ramp-ups. Global oil inventories have shrunk by more than 1 billion barrels due to the prolonged supply disruption. Read →

West Texas Intermediate futures registered around $80.40, a 5% drop on Monday, the lowest since March 5. The deal eases concerns over disruptions from the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about one-fifth of global oil supply. The conflict had driven prices sharply higher earlier in the war. Read →

Brent crude fell $3.58 or 4.1% to $83.75 a barrel and WTI dropped 4.7% to around $80.87 after US President Trump and Iranian officials announced an initial deal ending the war and resuming traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The chokepoint handles a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies, which had been disrupted for months. Traders are unwinding the geopolitical risk premium built into prices. Read →

US and Iranian officials reached a framework agreement to end military operations including in Lebanon, with a memorandum of understanding to be signed Friday in Switzerland. Trump stated the Strait of Hormuz would open toll-free and the US naval blockade of Iran would end. Oil prices fell more than 4% in early trading while Asian stock markets rose on reduced supply risk. Read →

Brent crude tumbled more than 3% toward $84 a barrel and WTI neared $81 after the US and Iran agreed on an interim deal potentially allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. Trump authorized the toll-free opening of the strait and an end to the blockade once the deal is signed Friday. Markets reacted to eased fears of prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Read →