Last price as of Wed, Jul 1, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Silver down $1.63 (-2.7%) on strong US economic data reinforcing Fed rate hike expectations. Sugar up $0.39 (+2.6%) on below-average Indian monsoon rains cutting supply prospects. Iron Ore down $1.9 (-2.0%) on new EU trade restrictions on steel imports clouding demand. Copper down $0.12 (-2.0%). China macro continues weaker on all industrial metals including copper and iron ore. Palladium down $21 (-1.8%). Dollar strength and weak sentiment on gold breaking below $4k. Crude down $1.07 (-1.5%) on easing supply fears as Strait of Hormuz traffic resumes. However, refined product cracks higher more than crude is selling off. So retail gasoline and diesel prices higher despite crude selloff.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long the copper structural bull case into 2027 on grid and AI demand outpacing supply.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Italian major Eni and Swiss trader Mercuria agreed to a 50/50 joint venture to trade oil, gas, LNG, biofuels and other energy commodities globally. The independent venture will operate with international trading hubs to boost Eni's trading profitability. Read →
Russia shipped a record 4.13 million barrels per day of crude in the four weeks to June 28, the highest since the Ukraine invasion. Earnings fell to the lowest since March as global prices tumbled amid easing Middle East tensions. Read →
Nymex natural gas futures rose 2.5% to $3.259/mmBtu as a U.S. heat wave lifted power demand and LNG feedgas use hit a three-month high. The August contract remains technically bullish with support near the 50-day average. Read →
Eni and Mercuria agreed to an equally owned venture to trade energy commodities including oil, gas and LNG through international hubs. The deal expands Eni's trading amid volatile markets and rivals' strong results. Read →
Brent futures rose 33 cents to $73.28/bbl and WTI climbed 34 cents to $69.84/bbl in Asian trade. Iran refused direct US talks in Doha, meeting mediators instead, amid patchy Hormuz reopening. US API data showed a 6.1 million barrel crude inventory drop last week. Read →
Anushree Mukherjee · Reuters · Tue, Jun 30, 11:34 AM ET
A Reuters poll of 31 analysts cut 2026 Brent forecast to $84.50/bbl from $90.44 and WTI to $79.49 from $84.63. Demand growth for 2026 was revised down 1-2M bpd due to weaker China consumption. OPEC+ kept its demand growth forecast below 1M bpd in June. Read →
No North Sea Brent cargoes are scheduled for August due to declining production, the first such month. Platts added other grades including WTI Midland to maintain liquidity. Brent loadings averaged 23,000 bpd in 2026 so far, down sharply from a decade ago. Read →
Julianne Geiger · OilPrice.com · Tue, Jun 30, 3:57 PM ET
API estimated US commercial crude stocks dropped 6.072M barrels in the week to June 26. Gasoline inventories also fell 2.106M barrels. SPR stocks hit a four-decade low at 325.7M barrels after another 5.5M barrel draw. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Heat dome over central/eastern US lifts near-term power-burn demand, lifting Henry Hub prices despite storage surplus.
A heat dome over the central and eastern US is boosting cooling demand and power-burn expectations through early July, the strongest tightening signal this summer per real-time indicators. LNG export flows to Europe and Asia add pull. Storage data still shows comfortable inventories, but spot and cash markets are confirming the demand surge. Read →
NGI projects an 83 Bcf injection for the week ended June 26, up 7 Bcf week-over-week and above the five-year average of 64 Bcf. This would shrink the year/year deficit to 27 Bcf while lifting the surplus versus the five-year benchmark to a 2026 high of 171 Bcf. Lower-48 power demand fell 1.7 Bcf/d last week amid cooler conditions. Read →
FERC cleared the second phase of NGPL's Texas-Louisiana Expansion Project, adding eastbound capacity on a constrained East Texas-Louisiana link. The move targets 300,000 Dth/d incremental service with a July 1, 2026 target in-service. It eases flows of Texas gas toward Henry Hub amid strong export and power demand. Read →
US natural gas prices rose over 3% to near $3.30/MMBtu on increased LNG plant flows and record power-demand forecasts from a severe heat wave. NYC temperatures may hit 100°F, with above-normal heat expected through mid-July. Lower-48 production averaged 110 Bcf/d in June while LNG feedgas flows hit 17.4 Bcf/d. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF holds near €43.50/MWh amid low EU storage (47%) and Hormuz supply risks; JKM at $16/MMBtu on Asian demand.
Shell’s LNG Outlook 2026 projects global LNG trade flat at 422 million tonnes in 2026 if Strait of Hormuz flows normalize by summer, or a rare contraction if disruptions persist. The war has already cut 20% of exports; U.S. volumes rose while Qatar’s fell sharply. Long-term demand still seen up 65% by 2050, led by Asia. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM issues hot weather alerts, seeks DOE emergency orders as heat threatens record 166 GW demand amid data center load.
PJM, serving 67 million customers, projects an all-time summer peak of 166.3 GW on July 2, exceeding the 2006 record of 165.6 GW. Extreme heat across the East and Midwest drives air-conditioning demand on grids already strained by data centers and EVs. Real-time prices in PJM spiked above $1,600/MWh on Monday evening due to congestion. Read →
The Trump administration declared a power emergency for PJM ahead of record heat, authorizing plants to run at maximum levels and exceed some environmental limits from July 1-3. PJM requested the order citing surging demand and supply risks. The grid serves 67 million people across 13 states. Read →
PJM placed the entire footprint under hot weather alert through July 3 and issued maximum generation and load management alerts for July 1. It received DOE 202(c) approval to direct data centers/large loads onto backup generation as last resort before load shed, plus environmental relief for generators July 1-3. July 2 peak forecast hits 166,304 MW. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Thermal coal futures rose to $129.65/t on June 30 amid easing Middle East tensions but remain down 7.6% month-over-month.
Coal India will invest 19 billion rupees ($201 million) in R&D through FY2030, focusing on clean coal tech, net-zero solutions, mine repurposing and rare earth recovery. The state miner has already committed funds to IITs and oversees 19 projects at other institutions. The move supports long-term domestic supply stability in the world's second-largest coal consumer. Read →
Thungela's pre-close update noted thermal coal prices remained robust while demand stayed subdued in the first half of 2026 due to the Middle East conflict effects. Newcastle benchmark averaged $124.79/t YTD and Richards Bay $104.25/t. South African output guidance holds with production slightly below prior period. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA June acreage and stocks reports show corn acres steady at 95.3M, soybeans up, wheat down sharply with tighter-than-expected corn stocks lifting grains.
USDA's June Acreage report set 2026 soybean planted area at 85.365 million acres, up 665,000 from March and 5% above 2025. Corn came in at 95.343 million acres, slightly above pre-report estimates and unchanged from March. These shifts signal farmers added bean acres while holding corn steady despite earlier expectations of cuts. Read →
USDA estimated all-wheat planted acreage at 42.74 million acres, down from 43.8 million in March and 6% below 2025, with winter wheat at 31.5 million. Soybean acres reached 85.4 million, up from March, while corn held at 95.3 million. June 1 grain stocks rose year-over-year for all three crops, with corn at 5.29 billion bushels. Read →
USDA pegged June 1 corn stocks at 5.295 billion bushels, below the 5.408 billion average estimate, while acreage held at 95.3 million. Soybean stocks hit 1.06 billion bushels and wheat acres fell to a record-low 42.74 million. Implied March-May corn demand reached an all-time high of 3.73 billion bushels, supporting prices. Read →
All cotton planted area reached 9.85 million acres, up 6% from 2025 and above March estimates. Corn stocks totaled 5.29 billion bushels (up 14% YoY) with 3.74 billion bushels disappearance; soybeans hit 1.06 billion bushels and wheat 920 million bushels, both above prior year. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME base metals mixed overnight as tin jumps over 2% while lithium carbonate drops sharply in China.
Overnight LME tin rose 2.58% and SHFE tin 2.25%, with LME zinc up 1.85% and most other base metals gaining under 1%. Only LME lead, nickel and SHFE lead declined modestly. The moves reflect shifting sentiment ahead of China PMI data and US policy signals. Read →
Lithium, cobalt and nickel prices have recovered from 2024-2025 lows but face resistance from uneven EV sales growth. Lithium carbonate prices may test buyer absorption after nearly tripling since mid-2025, limiting further upside for energy-transition metals. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel PMI slips to 47.8 in June, pressuring iron ore amid soft demand.
China’s steel sector PMI edged down 0.1 point to 47.8 in June per China Steel Logistics Committee. New orders and export orders weakened while finished steel inventories jumped. The reading signals contracting activity and will weigh on iron ore and steel demand into July’s off-season. Read →
SteelOrbis published daily CFR China iron ore prices for June 30. The update shows spot values holding near $100/t levels with limited daily movement. Weak Chinese steel demand keeps pressure on the seaborne benchmark used by SGX and physical traders. Read →
DCE iron ore futures touched but failed to hold the $100/t psychological level on June 30 as sentiment cooled. Spot prices stayed largely flat while futures dipped. Persistent weak Chinese steel demand and high port stocks cap upside for the 62% Fe benchmark. Read →
Iron ore prices remain above $100/t as China’s manufacturing PMI showed renewed momentum. The support contrasts with softer steel-specific indicators and property demand. Traders watch the divergence between broader factory activity and steel consumption for near-term direction. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold dips below $4,000/oz on Fed rate-hike bets, with central-bank buying anchoring the complex.
Neils Christensen · Kitco News · Tue, Jun 30, 1:30 PM ET
OMFIF's 2026 Global Public Investor survey of 74 central banks found 82% hold physical gold (up from 71%), with a net 30% planning higher allocations over 1-2 years. 61% expect prices between $5,000-$6,000/oz by June 2027; only 28% say highs deter buys. Geopolitical risks and diversification drive the shift, now a global trend beyond emerging markets. Read →
OMFIF survey of 90 central banks and funds showed more plan to cut dollar allocations than increase them over the decade, the first such result. 79% of central banks see a shift to a multipolar monetary system; gold, held by 82%, is the top asset for near-term allocation increases (net 30%). Geopolitical risks and U.S. policy uncertainty accelerate the move. Read →
Ernest Hoffman · Kitco News · Tue, Jun 30, 5:10 PM ET
Goldman Sachs' Samantha Dart said central-bank diversification remains the anchor for a $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast, citing a record 45% of World Gold Council survey respondents planning more reserves. Near-term headwinds from hawkish Fed and ETF outflows expected to ease; medium-term risks skewed higher on fiscal and diversification themes. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · DRC tightens cobalt quotas by forfeiting unused volumes to state reserve as stockpiles of magnet minerals dwindle.
Democratic Republic of Congo will withdraw unused first-half cobalt export quotas by June 30 and reassign them to a state-controlled strategic quota. Only shipments declared by July 5 qualify, with forfeited volumes supporting national processing projects. The move by the top producer tightens supply of the battery metal amid prior quota curbs that lifted prices 160% since early 2025. Read →
Cobalt miners in the Democratic Republic of Congo must surrender unused first-half export quotas to the government regulator. The dominant supplier has maintained strict shipment limits since early 2025, with quotas replacing an earlier ban. The policy risks adding further tightness to the battery metal market. Read →
US stockpiles of critical minerals for high-end samarium-cobalt magnets are beginning to dwindle following China's prior export lockdowns on samarium, gadolinium, terbium and dysprosium. The drawdown highlights vulnerabilities in defense supply chains reliant on these rare earths. Last summer's Chinese restrictions directly constrained magnet production inputs. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI rebounds 0.44% to 2,501 on June 30, ending six-day skid as capesize and panamax rates rise.
Empty VLCCs and smaller tankers are re-entering the Gulf amid recovering transits through the Strait of Hormuz after the Iran conflict. VLCC Middle East-China spot rates have dropped to around $287,000/day from over $500,000 pre-peace accord, while Aframax and product tanker rates outside the region have risen. The moves signal early fleet repositioning ahead of resumed Gulf oil exports despite lingering risks and backlogs. Read →
CMB.TECH agreed to sell the 2023-built Suezmax vessels Brest and Brugge, booking a $100.5 million capital gain to be realized in Q3 2026. The sales capitalize on historically strong Suezmax asset values at the peak of the tanker cycle. Delivery to the buyer is scheduled for Q3. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU steelmakers urge strengthening ETS ahead of July 15 overhaul proposal amid competitiveness fears.
SSAB and other industrial firms investing billions in low-carbon upgrades warn the EU Commission's planned July 15 ETS revision risks eroding advantages for early decarbonizers by adding free allowances or softening rules. The changes aim to align with 2040 targets but face pressure from leaders citing competitiveness. At €80/t, the carbon price has driven investments; weakening it could undermine the market signal for heavy industry. Read →
Salzgitter, SSAB and other top EU steelmakers urged policymakers to avoid diluting the ETS and to bolster the carbon border adjustment mechanism. Weakening the system would reduce investment certainty, penalize faster decarbonizers and slow the industry's clean transition, they said in a Tuesday statement. Read →
A Saudi state-backed voluntary carbon market company will add homegrown carbon credits to its platform before year-end. The move expands domestic supply in the VCM as the firm builds out local and international trading infrastructure. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Securitize NYSE debut and MEXC Ondo tokenized stock listing drive RWA momentum today.
Securitize won shareholder approval for its SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners II, clearing the path for trading on the NYSE under ticker SECZ starting Thursday. The deal is expected to deliver roughly $400 million in proceeds. As the platform behind BlackRock's BUIDL fund and other tokenized assets, the listing provides direct public equity exposure to RWA tokenization infrastructure. Read →
MEXC announced the listing of the STRCON/USDT spot pair tracking Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) preferred stock tokenized via Ondo Global Markets, with trading starting at 14:00 UTC on June 30. Deposits opened earlier the same day. The move expands on-chain access to tokenized U.S. equities for non-U.S. users on the exchange. Read →
Plume and FalconX launched the FALX Structured Credit Facility on Plume Nest Vaults, offering on-chain exposure to an overcollateralized prime brokerage lending strategy managed via a FalconX SPV and curated by M11 Credit. The facility targets up to $1 billion scale. It connects institutional on-chain capital with structured credit in the growing RWA ecosystem. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Eni-Mercuria energy trading venture and South32 $5.6B aluminium sale to Alcoa drive corporate deals focus.
South32 agreed to sell most of its bauxite, alumina and aluminium operations in Australia, Brazil and South Africa to Alcoa in a deal with up to $5.6 billion enterprise value. The transaction lets South32 exit low-margin aluminium to focus on copper and base metals under new CEO Matthew Daley, with a planned $500 million special dividend to shareholders. Read →
ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy signed a Declaration of Marketability with Cyprus for the Glaucus and Pegasus offshore gas fields, estimated at 8-9 tcf combined. The milestone advances development plans, with a final investment decision targeted around 2029 and first production around 2033, likely via tie-back to Egypt. Read →
QatarEnergy Marketing increased its July Qatar Sulphur Price by $85 per tonne to $890/t fob Ras Laffan/Mesaieed. The hike reflects persistent market tightness from prior delivery delays and outages despite some recovery in Hormuz traffic. Read →
President Trump issued an emergency proclamation suspending anti-dumping and countervailing duties on certain Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports for up to eight months. The step aims to ease US farmer costs amid global supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts, potentially cutting prices by around 22 percent. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump pressures gas retailers to cut prices to $2.50/gallon amid falling oil, while China adds 20 Japanese entities to export controls and US eases Morocco fertilizer tariffs.
China's commerce ministry added 20 Japanese entities, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Electric units plus the National Institute for Defense Studies, to its export control list for dual-use items. Exporters cannot sell such items without approval, citing Japan's remilitarization and nuclear ambitions. The curbs took effect immediately and follow earlier restrictions on Tokyo. Read →
The White House issued an emergency proclamation temporarily lifting duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco for up to eight months. The move addresses supply shortfalls and high prices exacerbated by the Iran conflict to support US farmers and food production. It follows prior tariff relief on other agricultural inputs. Read →
President Trump posted on Truth Social that retailers must lower gasoline prices immediately, targeting around $2.50 per gallon given oil at $68 per barrel, and warned of illegal gouging and big problems ahead. The statement follows his instruction to the DOJ last week to probe oil companies and comes as crude prices ease after Middle East developments. Read →
India's government ordered the lifting of temporary restrictions on petrol and diesel sales at retail outlets starting July 1. The curbs, including caps on daily diesel purchases and bans on commercial buyers, were imposed earlier in June amid Middle East supply disruptions. Normal sales resume as global supply conditions improve. Read →
The CFTC released draft regulations governing prediction markets to establish clearer federal oversight. The rules aim to define which event contracts fall under public interest review without banning most sports or other bets. This follows earlier agency actions and addresses growth in platforms like Kalshi. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Nuclear fuel consultant TradeTech reported its June long-term U3O8 price indicator surged to a new record $97/lb, exceeding the prior 2007-08 ceiling of $95/lb. Cameco's June long-term price is expected around $95.50/lb. Traders on X are celebrating the move as validation of a multi-year uranium bull market driven by supply constraints and rising nuclear demand, with spot prices seen as lagging the contract market. Read →
Iran stated the 'file of revenge is open' against the US and Israel following recent tensions. Oil prices reacted higher on immediate supply disruption concerns, with WTI and Brent showing volatility and global equities wobbling. Traders highlight persistent Middle East risk premium keeping energy markets on edge despite recent de-escalation talks. Read →
Reports indicate China stopped gold exports effective recently to prioritize domestic and strategic accumulation, contrasting with US banks pushing prices lower through sales. Retail investors are noted as bearing the brunt of the resulting volatility. Commodity watchers see this as geopolitical positioning in the gold market. Read →
With crude oil down sharply from wartime highs to around $72/bbl and reports of US-Iran peace developments, marketers in Nigeria and other markets are accused of delaying retail fuel price cuts. Traders discuss lagged pass-through effects, ongoing levies, and whether economic weakness or geopolitics is driving the broader oil decline. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Suki Cooper, Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered, says gold's recent pullback stems from liquidity and profit-taking. Central bank buying provides strong structural support, keeping prices above $4500 longer term. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.