Last price as of Tue, Jun 30, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Nickel (SHFE $/mt) down $326 (-1.9%) on SHFE metals weakness with nickel and aluminium leading declines. JKM up $0.30 (+1.9%). Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) down $54 (-1.8%) on SHFE metals weakness with nickel and aluminium leading declines. Copper up $0.06 (+1.0%). Nat Gas up $0.029 (+0.9%). Palladium up $10 (+0.8%).
Kicker: Long COMEX palladium vs short LME nickel spread on tariff risk premium underpricing, Citi.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
A U.S.-Iran deal and Trump administration waiver allow Iran to sell oil and receive dollar payments, potentially bringing $10 billion in two months. For ordinary Iranians, economic relief is likely to take much longer amid a beleaguered economy. Read →
Morgan Stanley cut oil forecasts for the second time in about two weeks as flows through the Strait of Hormuz return faster than expected, while strong US supply and weak Chinese demand raise the risk of a glut. Dated Brent is expected to average $75 a barrel in Q3 and Q4, down sharply. Read →
Spot gold declined 1.5% to $3,957.74 per ounce and was set for a monthly fall of 12.7%, its fourth straight monthly decline. Uncertainty in the Middle East gave way to expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes to tame inflation, with traders pricing in three Fed hikes this year. Read →
Oil output from Persian Gulf nations is ramping up so quickly as the Strait of Hormuz reopens that Asian refiners, already adequately supplied, are pushing some crude to destinations as far afield as California. China has remained on the sidelines as a buyer. Read →
The spike in copper prices to a record high earlier this year has added weight to arguments for switching from copper to cheaper and lighter aluminium in autos, electrical wire and air conditioning. Ferrari, BMW and Tesla are among firms expanding the substitution amid a copper-to-aluminium price ratio around 4.2. Read →
Iraq is aggressively seeking a higher OPEC production quota due to economic crisis from the Iran war and new oil investments by majors. Baghdad's push follows the UAE's exit from OPEC, adding pressure on the group still dealing with conflict fallout. Iraq is OPEC's second-largest producer with a designated target of 4.3 million b/d. Read →
Oil tankers kept navigating the Strait of Hormuz despite attacks over the past several days that made some owners more cautious. Ship-tracking data showed three tankers heading inbound late Monday and two sailing out earlier; two more supertankers appeared set to depart the Gulf. Traffic dropped off after the incidents. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natgas prices hold near 3-week lows on record output and milder weather forecasts.
Golden Pass LNG in Texas has taken little to no natural gas for three days and appears offline during commissioning of its first train. The QatarEnergy-ExxonMobil facility is expected to handle up to 2.6 bcfd when fully operational. Reduced feedgas demand frees US supply, pressuring domestic prices. Read →
Arctic Express, a newly Russian-flagged tanker, loaded LNG from a floating storage facility linked to the US-sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project on June 28. Russia continues Arctic LNG 2 operations with China as main buyer despite sanctions. The development has limited direct impact on US Henry Hub pricing. Read →
Shell expects global LNG supply to be flat year-on-year due to Middle East conflict disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The forecast assumes Hormuz reopens this summer; prolonged closure could cause a rare annual contraction. US LNG exports face indirect effects from global supply constraints. Read →
US natural gas prices remain near three-week lows amid record production levels and forecasts for milder weather reducing cooling demand. Lower power-burn expectations and ample supply weigh on the complex. The move reflects near-term bearish fundamentals for Henry Hub. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF and JKM climb as Hormuz vessel traffic slows after renewed US-Iran fighting, tightening LNG supply.
Global natural gas prices climbed Monday as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed significantly after renewed fighting between the United States and Iran. TTF and JKM benchmarks rose, with Asia outbidding Europe for cargoes amid the supply crunch. The moves reflect heightened geopolitical risks to roughly 20% of global LNG flows. Read →
Shell said Tuesday in its annual LNG report that global physical LNG cargoes sold this year could stay flat at 422 million metric tons if Hormuz disruptions persist. Prior expectations were for significant growth; the outlook assumes a summer return to normal shipping. Prolonged issues would tighten supply for Europe and Asia benchmarks. Read →
Shell's 2026 LNG Outlook forecasts global demand rising about 65% by 2050 to nearly 700 million metric tons annually, led by Asia. Trade is seen flat in 2026 at 2025 levels due to Middle East supply constraints before growth resumes in 2027. South and Southeast Asia are projected to account for around 40% of imports by 2050. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM issues hot weather alerts and seeks DOE order for data centers to run backup generators amid record demand forecasts this week.
Christine Condon · Maryland Matters · Mon, Jun 29, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
PJM filed with the DOE on June 27 requesting authority to direct data centers and large loads onto backup generators during the heatwave to avoid residential outages. Thursday July 2 could set a new all-time peak above 166,000 MW. Data center growth has tightened margins, raising blackout and price spike risks during extreme weather. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Coal prices ease as US-Iran deal reopens Hormuz, cutting fuel-switch demand; China output dips on safety checks.
China's new five-year energy plan targets half of power from non-fossil sources by 2030 while coal output stays near 2025's record 4.823 billion tons. Production in the first five months of 2026 fell 0.3% year-on-year to 1.98 billion tons, mainly due to heightened safety inspections after the May Shanxi mine disaster that killed 82. The plan reiterates a consumption peak by 2030 without specifics, underscoring Beijing's view of domestic coal as key to energy security amid oil import risks. Read →
A Seoul-based rights group reported Tuesday that North Korea's banned coal and mineral exports have rebounded since March 2024 due to lapsed UN monitoring. Trade relies on forced labor and shipping networks through China and Russia. The rebound violates UN sanctions tied to Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs. Read →
Thermal coal futures fell below $145 per ton, extending declines from near three-year highs after the US-Iran interim peace deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement eases energy prices and reduces incentives for fuel switching from gas to coal in Asia and Europe. Earlier June gains from Indonesia's export curbs are now reversing amid softer demand signals. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA acreage and grain stocks reports due today drive corn, soybean positioning amid moderating weather.
USDA's weekly Crop Progress report showed national corn condition at 67% good-to-excellent, down 1 point week-over-week with 9% silking. Soybeans rated 65% good-to-excellent, also down 1 point, with 96% emerged, 19% blooming and 4% podding, all ahead of average. Winter wheat harvest reached 48%, spring wheat 59% good-to-excellent, and cotton 48% good-to-excellent. Read →
Grain traders position ahead of USDA's June 30 Planted Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, which will update 2026 planted acres and June 1 inventories for corn, soybeans and wheat. Private surveys suggest slightly more corn and fewer soybean acres than March estimates, with futures trading cautiously as markets weigh favorable weather against potential supply revisions. Read →
USDA will release its 2026 Acreage survey and quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11 a.m. CDT on June 30. Trade averages point to corn acres near 94.9 million and soybeans near 85.4 million; the reports historically move corn and soybean futures 20-34 cents on average and will refine supply expectations entering peak summer growing season. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Aluminum tumbles toward worst monthly loss since 2008 as Middle East supply resumes after US-Iran deal.
Aluminum has dropped more than 15% in June as an interim US-Iran peace deal raises hopes of resumed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The region supplies nearly a tenth of global output; the unwind erased gains from three prior months of supply disruptions. The move highlights how quickly geopolitical easing can reverse war-driven rallies in light metals. Read →
Fastmarkets updated its holiday pricing calendar for the aluminium P1020A FOB Indonesia premium assessment. The change takes effect after a June consultation period ends. The premium assessment is part of Fastmarkets' base metals package used by traders for spot pricing benchmarks. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore hovers near $100/t as Fortescue hits 200Mt annual shipment record amid soft China steel demand.
Fortescue achieved its first-ever 200 million tonne iron ore shipment in a single year, up from 140 vessels in its debut 2008 year. The milestone underscores sustained high output from its Pilbara operations despite broader market softness. It highlights supply resilience from a top producer as steel demand lags in China. Read →
BHP, Rio Tinto and Caterpillar began trialing Cat 793 XE battery-electric haul trucks at BHP’s Jimblebar iron ore mine in Western Australia. The collaboration tests charging infrastructure and performance in harsh Pilbara conditions after initial validation. It signals major miners’ push to cut emissions from core iron ore operations. Read →
Iron ore futures showed limited direction as rising China hot metal output failed to lift broader demand. Traders weighed the increase against persistent weak steel consumption and ample supply. The disconnect keeps pressure on prices and futures like those on SGX and DCE. Read →
Benchmark iron ore prices fell to $99.2/t as of June 26, the lowest since August 2025. Elevated Chinese port stocks near record levels and rising seaborne supply from Australia and Brazil weighed on the market. Steel mill margins remain squeezed, limiting any rebound. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold slides below $4,000/oz on hawkish Fed rate-hike bets and fading Iran tensions.
Gold futures settled at $4,022.30/oz, extending Q2 losses to a record $625.30 or about 12% in June alone. Silver fell 22% this quarter on pace for its worst since 2013. Investors shed risk assets amid shifting rate expectations. Read →
Gold stayed below $4,000 after nearly 2% prior-session losses. Conflicting U.S.-Iran statements on talks to end conflict that had boosted oil and inflation fears kept pressure on prices despite limited safe-haven buying. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US lawmakers propose $2.5B Strategic Resilience Reserve for critical minerals to counter China.
A bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced legislation for a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve to purchase and stockpile critical minerals and rare earth elements. The reserve aims to stabilize prices, encourage domestic and allied production, and reduce reliance on Chinese supplies. It directly targets vulnerabilities exposed by Beijing's export controls on materials essential for defense, EVs, and electronics. Read →
China added MP Materials and USA Rare Earth plus eight other US entities to its export control list, barring Chinese dual-use exports to them in retaliation for US actions against Chinese firms. MP Materials operates the only scaled US rare earth mine and is Pentagon-backed; both firms are central to US mine-to-magnet efforts. The move escalates the critical minerals standoff, limiting access to Chinese processing inputs despite the firms' limited prior reliance. Read →
The DOE selected two projects in Louisiana and Oklahoma for $134 million to demonstrate commercial recovery and refining of rare earth elements from mine tailings, electronic waste, and industrial waste. The funding targets unconventional feedstocks to build domestic supply chains and cut foreign dependence. It advances US efforts to scale non-Chinese processing capacity for defense and energy applications. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index drops to 2,490 on Monday, extending six-day losing streak to over two-month low amid weakening capesize rates.
The Baltic Dry Index fell 34 points or 1.4% to 2,490 on Monday, its lowest since mid-April after six straight sessions of declines. Capesize rates slumped 2.8% while supramax also eased, pressuring earnings for iron ore and coal carriers as demand softens. Read →
Tether and Fasset introduced a Visa card allowing spending of fiat while earning up to 6% cashback in XAUT tokenized gold. Tether committed a $1M XAUT reward pool targeting Fasset’s users. The product adds everyday payment utility to commodity-backed tokens beyond holding. Read →
CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline Pham announced an initiative inviting public input by October 20 on using tokenized assets and stablecoins as collateral in derivatives markets. The move signals regulatory support for tokenized non-cash collateral including stablecoins in futures and swaps. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Williams nears $5.5B Momentum Midstream gas pipeline deal as LNG export demand surges.
Yongan Futures, Orient Futures and Guotai Junan Futures are preparing LME membership applications. The move would increase Chinese control over clearing of industrial metals trades on the world’s largest exchange. Guotai Junan is already advancing its bid while others prepare UK entities. Read →
Australia’s mining and energy export earnings will fall over the next two years due to trade barriers, weaker bulk commodity prices and soft global demand. Iron ore and LNG prices face pressure from rising global supply. The government report highlights ongoing risks to resources revenue. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US-Iran Hormuz truce and sanctions waiver boost loadings, but persistent attacks and Shell LNG warning keep supply risks elevated.
The CFTC ordered Netrios LP Ltd. to pay $1.75 million and Red Acre Ltd. $750,000 for facilitating off-exchange leveraged retail commodity transactions to ineligible US customers. The firms provided platforms and support for illegal activity that should occur only on registered exchanges. The settlement enforces CFTC rules on retail commodity derivatives and deters offshore evasion. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders note accelerating tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz after recent geopolitical tensions eased, with Morgan Stanley warning of stranded barrels creating near-term oversupply. WTI near $70 and Brent around $72 as prices head for biggest quarterly drop since pandemic. Retail and pro voices in r/oil discuss tanker traffic recovery and implications for crude balances. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, joined CNBC's Squawk Box to discuss the impact of US-Iran tensions and strikes on global oil markets. She highlighted that escalation signals higher oil prices, noting speculator positioning and risks around the Strait of Hormuz, while stressing the fragility of any interim peace deal slowing energy shipping. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.