Last price as of Thu, Jul 2, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Platinum up $25 (+1.5%) on weaker dollar overnight. Crude down $1.08 (-1.5%) on rising shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran talks. Distillate cracks (diesel, jet fuel) continue higher, so no sell off in retail oil prices despite weaker crude. Palladium up $18 (+1.5%) on weaker dollar overnight. Nat Gas in the US down $0.045 (-1.4%) on surging Lower 48 production and softer weather-driven demand. Iron Ore up $1.0 (+1.1%) on short term (overnight) dollar weakness, and rising freight costs amid ongoing geopolitical shipping constraints. Dutch TTF in Europe up $0.37 (+0.9%) on lingering European supply concerns.
Kicker: BofA recommends long oil/energy as the best contrarian 'run-it-hot' commodity trade for 2026.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Key US oil grades including Mars have slumped back to discounts as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume and the recent spike in American export demand fades. Read →
Russia has started seaborne imports of at least 60,000 metric tons of gasoline from India to ease nationwide shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries. Read →
Dozens of planned behind-the-meter gas plants to power US data centers could generate 662 million tons of annual greenhouse-gas emissions, equivalent to Australia or France. Read →
Outgoing OMV CEO Alfred Stern said Europe’s import policies risk shrinking the pool of gas suppliers and discouraging LNG exporters, threatening the region’s energy security. Read →
Brent fell 0.85% to $70.96/bbl and WTI 1.15% to $67.79/bbl on optimism over indirect US-Iran talks in Doha on shipping through Hormuz. President Trump said negotiations were going well and denuclearization was progressing. Markets priced in reduced risk of Middle East supply disruptions. Read →
Seven OPEC+ members plan another 188,000 bpd quota increase from August, matching prior months, as Hormuz reopens and prices fall. Cumulative hikes since April total nearly 800,000 bpd amid recovering flows. Output had dropped sharply during the Iran conflict. Read →
Brent dropped below $71/bbl to pre-war levels amid progress in US-Iran indirect talks in Doha via Qatar mediators. Hopes rose for a permanent ceasefire and full Hormuz reopening. Prices have fallen sharply from war peaks as supply concerns ease. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures ease to $3.20/MMBtu on larger-than-expected storage build expectations amid steady LNG flows and shifting heat.
US natural gas futures eased Wednesday as traders weighed a sprawling Lower 48 heat dome against stable production and LNG feedgas. Spot cash prices rose in the Northeast on power-burn demand, but futures lost ground on expectations of comfortable storage. The moves highlight how summer heat supports near-term demand while ample supply caps price upside. Read →
Next-day natural gas cash prices advanced midweek, led by the Northeast amid the hottest Lower 48 conditions of 2026 so far. Power generation needs drove buying as utilities stocked supply for air-conditioning loads. Regional basis strengthened in key demand areas while futures remained under pressure from broader supply fundamentals. Read →
Europe took just under 42% of US LNG exports in June, the lowest share in nearly two years, as Asia prices pulled cargoes away and Egypt set a record import month. Total US shipments redirected toward higher-paying Asian and African buyers amid wider price spreads. The shift underscores how global arbitrage continues to shape US export flows and domestic feedgas demand. Read →
PJM Interconnection flagged potential price spikes and record electricity demand this summer tied to heat and data-center growth. The grid operator highlighted risks to reliability and costs from surging loads. Elevated power-burn demand would support natural gas consumption in the key eastern market. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF at 43 EUR/MWh and JKM at 16 USD/MMBtu as US LNG cargoes divert to Asia amid JKM premium over TTF.
S&P Global Platts launched daily assessments for US Gulf Coast Marker LNG derivatives and additional inter-regional LNG derivative products. The new benchmarks enhance price discovery and risk management for US-sourced LNG flows that increasingly arbitrage between TTF and JKM. This supports better tracking of Atlantic-basin cargo diversions affecting both European and Asian hubs. Read →
EU LNG imports declined 18% year-on-year in June due to ongoing Middle East supply constraints from the Iran conflict. Reduced inflows ease immediate storage injection pressure on TTF while highlighting competition from Asian buyers. The drop aligns with lower northwest Europe LNG send-out and supports the observed TTF-JKM spread dynamics. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM braces for record 166.3 GW demand Thursday amid heatwave, with spot prices surging toward $1,000+/MWh near Virginia data centers.
Two DOE Section 202(c) orders effective through July 3 authorize PJM to direct data centers to backup diesel generators and waive power plant emission limits as a heatwave threatens a new demand record of 166,304 MW on July 2. The measures address interconnection queues and data center load growth in Northern Virginia, where facilities already draw significant power from the grid. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Thermal coal prices ease to $130/t as Asia imports surge on China, Japan, SK buying amid LNG concerns.
India's steel output is forecast to more than double to 400 Mt by 2035, requiring 15 Mt extra coking coal imports annually, most from Australia which supplies half the seaborne market. Australian miners like BHP face 20-40% royalty rates on high prices that deter new investment, leading to managed decline at existing Queensland mines despite strong margins above $100/t. This tension could tighten future met coal supply as India relies on imports for 85%+ of needs. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA June acreage and stocks reports plus Midwest heat drive grains as corn holds acres, soybeans expand, wheat hits record low.
USDA pegged 2026 corn planted area at 95.343 million acres, unchanged from March and slightly above expectations. Soybean acreage rose to 85.365 million acres, above the March figure. All-wheat acreage fell to 42.740 million acres, below trade estimates and the lowest on record, while June 1 corn stocks reached 5.29 billion bushels, up 14% year-over-year. The data point to tighter wheat supply prospects and ample old-crop grain inventories heading into summer. Read →
All-wheat planted area came in at 42.7 million acres, 1.1 million below pre-report estimates and the lowest since records began. The surprise drop provided bullish support for an oversold wheat market. Corn acreage held near expectations at 95.3 million while soybean acres aligned with forecasts at 85.4 million. Read →
A dangerous early-July heat wave with highs in the 90s to 100s°F is hitting the Midwest during critical corn pollination and soybean reproductive stages. Nutrien meteorologist Eric Snodgrass warns of combined heat, storms, and shifting patterns that could pressure yields over the next two weeks. Current crop ratings remain solid but face the first major summer stress test. Read →
USDA's June Acreage report showed U.S. corn plantings at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from 2025. Soybean acreage increased 5% to 85.4 million acres. Wheat plantings fell 6% to 42.7 million acres while cotton rose 6%. June 1 grain stocks were also larger than a year ago for all three major grains. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME base metals mixed as zinc falls 1.48% on July 1 with nickel, tin edging higher amid quiet China holiday period.
LME base metals traded mostly lower in morning session July 1. Copper, zinc and tin posted the largest declines while nickel alone gained. The moves reflect typical quiet trading with China on holiday. Read →
Zinc led LME base metals lower with a 1.48% drop to close July 1. Nickel and tin posted modest gains in an otherwise mixed session. The zinc move stood out on the day. Read →
Lithium carbonate in China fell to CNY 151,750 per tonne, a three-month low. Speculation centers on possible restart of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi after a government land assessment notice. Analysts note the market has priced in the risk despite no confirmed restart timeline. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · CMRG blacklists some Fortescue iron ore cargoes from July 15, lifting futures briefly above $100/t.
China's state buyer CMRG told mills not to take Fortescue Super Special Fines and Fortune Fines port cargoes after July 15 amid stalled pricing talks. Fortescue ships most output to China and negotiates new terms with the centralised buyer. The move follows a similar BHP standoff resolved in April and highlights Beijing's push for procurement control. Read →
Alfred Cang and Jessica Zhou · Bloomberg · Thu, Jul 2, 2026, 2:59 AM UTC
Iron ore futures rose as much as 3.8% to $101.20/t in Singapore night trading after CMRG signalled it would blacklist some Fortescue port inventories from July 15. Mills and traders holding Super Special Fines were urged to clear stocks beforehand. China remains the dominant seaborne buyer, taking most cargoes from Australia and Brazil. Read →
Hebei's steel sector PMI dropped to 46.5 in June, with the new orders sub-index falling 14.7 points to 39.0. The contraction reflects sluggish domestic demand tied to the property sector slowdown. Hebei produces over 20% of China's steel output. Read →
Fortescue Metals Group shipped over 200 million mt of iron ore in its latest fiscal year, the first time it has exceeded that mark. Cumulative shipments since 2008 now top 2.5 billion mt. The record underscores expanded Pilbara capacity and integrated rail-port operations serving mainly Chinese buyers. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rebounds over 2% on soft US jobs data and Fed Chair Warsh comments, lifting the complex.
Gold prices jumped more than 2% and silver rose around 3% following softer-than-expected US jobs data and comments from Fed Chair Warsh. The moves reflect shifting rate expectations that reduce pressure on non-yielding metals. This driver supports near-term price action across precious metals. Read →
Gold traded higher Wednesday after closing its worst quarter in 13 years, down 16% in Q2 amid higher real yields and firmer dollar views. Spot prices reached $4,025.89 while futures held near $4,041. Central bank diversification and debt concerns provide structural support despite near-term consolidation. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's export controls on MP Materials and USA Rare Earth plus Fuji Electric arrests tighten supply, lifting prices.
Chinese authorities formally arrested two Fuji Electric employees in Dalian after detaining them in May for allegedly violating rare earth export control laws by attempting to ship controlled products overseas. The move escalates enforcement from licensing to criminal penalties amid Beijing's tightening regime on dual-use rare earth technologies and materials. It heightens compliance risks and supply uncertainty for Japanese and other foreign firms reliant on Chinese-sourced rare earth magnets and components. Read →
China placed MP Materials and USA Rare Earth on its export control list, barring Chinese firms from supplying the US companies with dual-use goods and technologies. The action targets Pentagon-backed US rare earth miners developing domestic mine-to-magnet chains in retaliation for US restrictions on Chinese entities. It directly disrupts potential Chinese feedstock or technology flows to America's sole producing rare earth mine and emerging Texas projects. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index jumps 2.4% to 2,562 on capesize surge amid iron ore and coal demand.
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index climbed 61 points to 2,562 on July 1. Capesize rates surged 4.1% to 3,692 points while panamax rose 1.1% to 2,177; supramax gained 0.4%. Gains across segments reflect stronger iron ore and coal fixtures supporting commodity shipping. Read →
Saudi Aramco cut July propane OSP by $180/ton to $580 and butane by $220/ton to $600. Sonatrach lowered propane $57/ton to $518 and butane $10/ton to $600. Cuts reflect ample global LPG supply pressuring gas carrier rates. Read →
Crude tanker crossings through Hormuz rose to 57 in the week to June 28 from a wartime average of 15. TD3C spot rates from Middle East to China fell nearly 40% to $313,000/day but remain far above the long-run average below $100,000. Data shows partial recovery in VLCC/Suezmax flows after US-Iran ceasefire. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS reform proposal delayed to July 17, with EUA prices near 80 EUR amid anticipation.
The European Commission postponed its EU ETS revision proposal from July 15 to July 17. The package includes a slower cap reduction, extended free allocations for industry, market stability reserve tweaks, and scope expansions to waste and extra-European flights. Traders have kept activity subdued ahead of the details, which will shape 2028 implementation after parliamentary and member-state talks. Read →
Amazon reported 81 million metric tons of CO2e emissions for 2025, a 16% rise from 2024 and 58% above 2019 levels. Data-center construction and delivery fuels drove the increase despite the company's 2040 net-zero pledge. Similar spikes at Google underscore how AI-driven power demand challenges corporate climate targets and voluntary carbon demand. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · VALR integrates Hyperliquid for 200+ perps including oil, gold, metals on regulated platform.
VALR, Africa’s largest crypto exchange by volume, integrates Hyperliquid’s on-chain L1 to offer over 200 perpetual futures markets including Brent and WTI crude, natural gas, gold, silver, platinum and copper. The launch, set for web on July 6, gives users 24/7 leveraged access to commodities and RWAs via a regulated South African platform sourcing liquidity directly from Hyperliquid. It marks the first major regulated exchange natively embedding an on-chain protocol for cross-asset perps. Read →
Tokenized RWAs stand at roughly $19B market cap with commodities (mainly gold) at 30% and tradable spot volumes surging, but perpetual futures on RWAs turned over $525B in Q1 2026, more than double 2025. Hyperliquid captured 46% of RWA perps open interest and 20% of volume after tenfold growth last quarter, dominating commodity-linked contracts including oil and metals. Derivatives activity already exceeds spot RWA trading by over 10x. Read →
Streamex’s gold-backed tokenized security GLDY, which pays up to 3.5% annualized yield in additional gold via leasing, became available June 29 through Siebert Financial brokerage accounts for accredited investors, custodied at tZERO. The move places yield-bearing on-chain gold alongside stocks and bonds in conventional accounts without crypto wallets. It follows February launch, May 24/7 Solana trading and expands access for traditional wealth clients to tokenized commodities. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Eni-Mercuria 50:50 energy trading JV and Adani-IHC $11.5B Odisha aluminium complex headline corporate activity.
Adani Group and Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company signed an MoU for a 50:50 joint venture to build an integrated aluminium complex in Odisha with 4 MTPA alumina, 2 MTPA aluminium and 1 MTPA downstream capacity plus captive power. The $11.5 billion project, India’s largest foreign investment in metals, will create 53,500 jobs and expand domestic supply for infrastructure and renewables. Read →
Martin Marietta Materials agreed to acquire Lhoist North America in a $13.5 billion cash-and-stock deal, adding over 2 billion tons of limestone reserves and 20 quarries plus 45 terminals across the Sun Belt. The transaction positions Martin Marietta as the leading U.S. lime and limestone producer serving steel, construction and agriculture markets and is expected to close in H2 2026. Read →
Alcoa entered a definitive agreement to acquire South32’s interests in bauxite mines, alumina refineries and aluminium smelters in Australia, South Africa and Brazil for approximately $4.1 billion cash and stock, assuming $1.2 billion in rehabilitation liabilities. Key assets include Worsley in Western Australia and Hillside in South Africa; the deal strengthens Alcoa’s upstream aluminium position with estimated $900 million synergies. Read →
S&P Global Ratings affirmed Talos Energy’s ‘B’ issuer credit rating and assigned ‘B+’ to proposed second-lien notes following the company’s announced acquisition. The agency cited strong projected credit metrics under current commodity price assumptions despite the added leverage from the transaction. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · UK steel import quotas slashed 51% from July 1 with 50% out-of-quota tariff to shield domestic production.
From July 1, 2026, the UK limits tariff-free steel imports across 20 categories, cutting overall quotas by 51% from prior safeguards. Imports above quarterly quotas face a 50% tariff. The move counters global overcapacity and supports UK steelmaking for infrastructure and defense. Read →
Russian-owned NIS, Serbia's sole refinery supplying up to 80% of the market, applied for a new US sanctions waiver after the current one expires July 1. The waiver allows crude imports and processing amid ownership change talks with MOL. Read →
Kyrgyzstan, importing over 90% of gasoline from Russia, requested emergency fuel supplies from Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and potential Russian diesel export bans are tightening supplies ahead of harvest. Read →
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission proposed revising radiation protection rules by reconsidering the ALARA standard and linear no-threshold model. Changes aim to support nuclear expansion under executive reform orders. Read →
The US declined to extend the USMCA review deadline, initiating a process likely to place the pact in limbo. Existing US tariffs on Mexican and Canadian autos, metals and lumber remain in place during negotiations. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
r/oil users discuss Trump's call for $2.50/gallon gas ahead of July 4, linking it to ongoing SPR releases and Strait of Hormuz issues. Traders note political pressure on prices amid supply concerns from Iran tensions, with debates on sustainability of low prices and potential for sharp corrections. Read →
High-engagement r/oil post claims Trump using SPR to suppress prices before holidays and midterms. Users debate long-term risks of depleted reserves, geopolitical fallout from Iran MOU, and how it masks underlying supply issues from Strait tensions. Read →
Active megathread sees retail and trader opinions on recent WTI weakness, SPR impact, and Iran deal skepticism. Discussions focus on whether prices reflect true supply-demand or manipulation, with calls for bottoms around $60-67 amid ongoing volatility. Read →
Notable commodity voice posts on copper refusing to break lower despite metals weakness, calling it a high-conviction breakout. Links to broader rotation where energy has moved and agriculture may follow as next leg in commodity complex. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Samantha Dart said markets have not overreacted to recent Strait of Hormuz flare-ups as US exports and China imports remain solid. She expects normalization of flows by end-July, leading to oversupply averaging over 3M b/d in 2027, partially offset by 1M b/d SPR rebuilding, leaving 2M b/d surplus. Oil market is heading in the right direction toward balance. Watch/Listen →
Samantha Dart noted global oil market set to swing to oversupply as Iran war impact fades and Hormuz traffic recovers. SPR rebuilding will tighten market somewhat but not prevent 3M b/d surplus next year after normalization. Exports through Hormuz expected to normalize by end of July. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.