Last price as of Mon, Jun 29, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Cocoa down $155 (-3.0%) on signs of larger global supplies sparking long liquidation. Platinum down $35 (-2.1%) on higher US interest rate expectations weighing on precious metals. Dutch TTF up $0.80 (+2.0%) on attack on cargo ship southeast of Oman renewing supply route concerns. Silver down $1.13 (-1.9%) on sell-off by participants ahead of festive season. Zinc (SHFE $/mt) up $54 (+1.8%) on broad advance in metals futures. Corn down $7 (-1.6%) on lower crude oil prices and firmer US dollar.
Kicker: Buy July TTF vs sell Aug Henry Hub spread on narrowing arb as US exports tighten domestic balances, Goldman Sachs.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
State-owned Pakistan LNG issued a tender over the weekend for a shipment deliverable June 30 to July 4. Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted LNG flows, prompting the urgent procurement effort. Read →
Saudi Arabia loaded a fourth VLCC at Ras Tanura on Monday while Iran accelerated loadings at Kharg Island. Qatar and UAE LNG tankers continued exports to India and China even after weekend tanker strikes and US-Iran strikes strained the ceasefire. Read →
EU storage facilities are forecast to end the April-October restocking season only 76% full. The low levels threaten higher prices for businesses and households this winter. Read →
Williams Cos. is finalizing a deal to acquire rival natural gas pipeline operator Momentum Midstream from EnCap Flatrock Midstream for about $5.5 billion. The transaction would rank among Williams' largest ever. Read →
Quarterly oil and gas exploration spending reached A$471 million in the March quarter, a 10-year high. Spending is projected to exceed $1 billion in 2026 amid Asian demand and lessons from the Iran conflict. Read →
Renewed tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran, including on a Qatar-linked tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, slowed energy shipments through the key chokepoint. Brent rose 52 cents to $72.51/bbl and WTI gained 71 cents to $69.94/bbl by late Monday. Traffic had risen sharply last week after an interim peace deal but has since eased amid the fresh escalation. Read →
Ukrainian drones struck the Slavyansk refinery in Krasnodar (300 km from the front) and a facility in Yaroslavl (700 km away), according to President Zelenskiy. The attacks target Russia's fuel supply chain, with footage showing fires and smoke at the sites. Putin vowed to strengthen defenses of oil facilities amid growing domestic fuel shortages. Read →
The US diesel futures crack spread reached a three-week high as WTI fell 22% this month while ULSD futures dropped just over 9%. Analysts attribute resilient refiner margins to persistent distillate supply tightness expected to last even after the Iran truce. Traders remain cautious about potential renewed Middle East tensions. Read →
Ron Bousso · Reuters · Mon, Jun 29, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
A surge in Middle East crude exports via the reopened Strait of Hormuz, 20 million barrels exited in one recent 24-hour period, has flipped front-month Brent into contango for the first time since the war began. August Brent traded 41 cents below September, signaling near-term oversupply as 20% of global oil flows resume. The market faces months of rebalancing as shut-in production restarts. Read →
Brent traded near $72/bbl after paring early gains of up to 1.9% once the US and Iran agreed to stop attacks following weekend flare-ups. A supertanker hit near the Strait of Hormuz triggered the latest round, testing the interim ceasefire. WTI held around $70 amid ongoing uncertainty over sustained Hormuz traffic recovery. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · LNG export flows and Southern heat lift Henry Hub toward $3.35 as storage stays ample.
June is shaping up to be the strongest month on record for US natural gas exports to Mexico. Sempra Infrastructure’s Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG export terminal is ramping up and driving westbound demand. This supports higher pipeline flows out of US basins toward Gulf Coast LNG and Mexico. Read →
Natural gas stored in the South Central region is on the cusp of deficit territory. Southern heat intensifies and LNG demand strengthens, pressuring regional inventories even as total Lower 48 storage remains ample above the five-year average. Read →
Mountain Valley Pipeline received federal approval to start building the North Carolina leg of its Southgate Amendment Project. The extension adds 500 MMcf/d capacity into the Southeast, clearing the final regulatory hurdle and responding to widening Transco Zone 5 South premiums signaling demand. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rose to €41.5/MWh on Middle East supply concerns amid low EU storage and weak Norwegian flows.
European natural gas prices rose to €41.7 per MWh on Monday, extending Friday's gains as the latest flare-up in the Middle East reignited supply concerns. Dutch TTF is the leading European benchmark. The move reflects ongoing geopolitical risks to global LNG flows into northwest Europe. Read →
Dutch TTF Gas Jul '26 futures traded at 41.435 EUR/MWh, up 0.653 or +1.60%. The benchmark rose amid persistent supply concerns from the Middle East and European storage dynamics. Low injection pace and limited Norwegian pipeline flows support the upside. Read →
JKM and TTF eased while Henry Hub rose on summer demand expectations and storage data. EU-wide underground gas storage was 39.7% on May 29, up from the prior week but down sharply year-on-year. Milder weather and stable supply fundamentals weighed on benchmarks. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Asia thermal coal imports surge 22% YoY to 77Mt in June on China, Japan, SK buying.
David Shepardson and Valerie Volcovici · Reuters · Fri, Jun 26, 2026
The US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit rejected the EPA's petition to vacate 2024 Biden-era PM2.5 soot limits of 9 micrograms per cubic meter for coal plants and factories. The ruling upholds the standards, dealing a setback to Trump administration deregulation efforts despite EPA arguments on costs and authority. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Corn futures drop as US-Iran tensions ease while hot Midwest weather raises crop concerns ahead of Tuesday USDA reports.
Chicago corn futures slipped as much as 1.3% after Washington and Tehran agreed to halt attacks before peace talks. Traders are also monitoring hot weather forecasts that could stress US crops. The move extends declines for a second session. Read →
The USDA Acreage survey and quarterly Grain Stocks report covering inventories as of June 1 will be released Tuesday at 11 a.m. CDT. Past reactions have averaged 20 cents for corn and 34 cents for soybeans. Markets expect potential volatility from the data. Read →
Private estimates point to only 200,000-400,000 fewer corn acres and 500,000-700,000 more soybean acres versus March intentions. Fertilizer costs had fueled speculation of larger shifts but recent surveys suggest muted changes. Read →
Wheat futures declined Friday across Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts. The weakness limited upside in corn and soybeans despite earlier bullish moves. July corn closed down 2 cents and soybeans also finished lower. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper falls on hawkish Fed and stronger dollar as LME prices ease overnight.
Benchmark copper declined amid a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and rising US dollar pressuring industrial metals sentiment. The move weighed on the broader base metals complex with limited offsetting fundamentals reported in the last 24 hours. Read →
Anglo American and state-owned Codelco finalized the joint mine plan for adjacent Los Bronces and Andina operations in Chile. The deal unlocks 2.7 million tonnes of additional copper over 21 years at minimal capex, subject to environmental permits expected around 2030. Read →
Emirates Global Aluminium inaugurated its Al Taweelah plant with 185,000 tonnes per year capacity for post-consumer scrap. The facility boosts EGA's low-carbon aluminium output and positions the UAE as a larger domestic recycler of aluminium waste. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel prices extend downtrend on summer lull and weak end-user demand.
China's rebar, square billet and hot-rolled coil prices all extended declines during June 22-26 as domestic steel market sentiment softened with lackluster end-user demand in the traditional summer off-season. Imported iron ore spot prices also continued declining despite a slight futures uptick, pressured by weak fundamentals. This matters for margins at Chinese blast furnaces and EAF mills as well as SGX/DCE iron ore benchmarks. Read →
Champion Iron announced initial production of direct reduction quality iron ore from its DRPF Project at Bloom Lake, with a first commercial Capesize shipment of at least 160,000 wet metric tonnes expected in Q3 2026. The project upgrades capacity to up to 69% Fe pellet feed for DRI/EAF steelmaking. This supports premiums for high-purity iron ore amid the shift from blast furnaces toward lower-carbon EAF routes. Read →
Fortescue shares underperformed the broader ASX as iron ore hovered just above US$100/t after an 8.18% monthly drop, drawing focus to its lower-grade product mix and June-quarter margins. The stock closed at A$19.07, down 4.51% for the week. Lower prices pressure Fortescue, BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale while Chinese mills favor cost-focused procurement. Read →
Iron ore prices reclaimed the US$100/t level supported by output cuts in Guinea and underlying Chinese demand signals. The move comes amid broader market volatility and follows recent weakness tied to high port inventories. This provides a near-term floor for SGX and DCE 62% Fe contracts and supports major miners including Vale. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Precious metals retreat from record highs as rate-hike bets and stronger dollar weigh on prices.
Jeetendra Khadan, Kaltrina Temaj · World Bank · Thu, Jun 26, 2026
Gold fell about 15% from its February peak and silver/platinum about 25% from January highs by June. Prices declined in Q2 after strong prior gains as U.S. interest-rate hike expectations strengthened and the dollar rose. Central bank purchases are expected to continue supporting gold while industrial demand and tight supply underpin silver and platinum. Read →
Spot gold fell 3.3% to $3,973.79/oz, its lowest since November 2025. Silver dropped below $60/oz. Firmer U.S. dollar and growing expectations of interest-rate hikes pressured prices ahead of PCE data. Read →
Front-month gold futures closed down 1.2% to $4,129.90/oz and silver down 5.4% to $62.02/oz. Risk-off sentiment and hopes for resolution in U.S.-Iran tensions weighed on prices for a third straight session. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China escalates rare earth export curbs on Japan while US Army leases bases for domestic dysprosium, graphite processing.
China’s Ministry of Commerce blacklisted four Japanese defense research institutes and added 20 entities including Mitsubishi units to its export control list for dual-use items including rare earths and permanent magnets. Another 20 firms such as drone maker Terra Drone and nuclear processors went on a watch list requiring stricter licensing. The moves double the total sanctioned entities to 80 and continue a January campaign pressuring Tokyo over Taiwan policy. Read →
Beijing added 20 defense institutes and companies to its dual-use export control list and 20 more including Mitsui E&S to the watch list, doubling the total to 80. The escalation follows January bans on rare earths and magnets to Japan and has already driven terbium, dysprosium and yttrium exports to near zero, squeezing Japanese manufacturers of EVs, tools and electronics. Read →
The Army awarded conditional Enhanced Use Leases to REalloys for dysprosium and terbium at Tooele Army Depot, Titan Mining subsidiary Empire State Mines for graphite at Alabama/Arkansas sites, Ioneer for boron at Tooele, and EnergyX for lithium at Red River Army Depot. The no-taxpayer-cost deals aim to build domestic capacity for defense magnets, batteries and armor starting 2027-2028. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz shipping resumes amid US-Iran ceasefire pause, lifting tanker flows while container rates hit 22-month high.
Drewry's World Container Index rose 5% to $4,166 per 40ft container, its highest since September 2024. Shanghai-Los Angeles rates climbed 12% to $5,750 and Shanghai-New York rose 6% to $7,149. Stronger spot demand on Transpacific lanes drove the weekly gain. Read →
Jonathan Saul, Florence Tan · Reuters · Fri, Jun 26, 2026
Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell Friday after Iran fired on a Taiwanese-operated ship near Oman. Tanker sailings dropped to 13 from 24 the prior day, though some VLCCs still entered to load crude. The UN paused its ship-evacuation scheme following the attack. Read →
Asia-US container spot rates kept climbing while tanker earnings eased as more vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz. Increased Hormuz sailings after the ceasefire pause supported crude movements but pressured dirty-tanker rates. The shift reflects partial normalization of Gulf traffic. Read →
Environment
What's moving · Washington signs linkage deal with California-Québec carbon markets, expanding largest North American system.
Washington state signed a linkage agreement on June 25 with California and Québec for their cap-and-invest programs. The deal enables mutual recognition of allowances, joint auctions, and a common price once full regulatory steps complete, expected in 2027. It expands the largest subnational carbon market, stabilizing prices and supporting cross-border emissions reductions. Read →
European carbon permits fell marginally on June 26 amid the narrowest trading range in over two weeks. Traders positioned ahead of the financial half-year end and the upcoming EU ETS reform package. Energy markets mixed with limited impact on allowances. Read →
Platts will remove the annual vintage roll for Renewable Energy, Nature-Based Avoidance, South America, and Household Devices carbon credit assessments effective July 1. The change simplifies pricing for these voluntary market categories. It reflects evolving assessment practices in the VCM. Read →
Tether integrates XAUT on Ledn platform for trading and holding, with gold-backed loans in USDT or USAT planned later in 2026. Tether holds $23B physical gold backing the $3B market cap token. The move lets holders borrow against tokenized bullion without selling, expanding utility of commodity-backed assets on-chain. Read →
Matrixdock expands its LBMA-accredited XAUm tokenized gold product to Stellar network. Stellar Development Foundation makes direct treasury allocation to XAUm. Expansion integrates the asset into Stellar's DEX, lending markets and institutional vault for on-chain commodity exposure. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Williams nears $5.5B Momentum Midstream acquisition as midstream M&A heats up.
EDF signed an agreement to sell its EDF Power Solutions operations and assets in the U.S. and Canada to KKR. The unit includes 5.6 GW of renewable assets. The sale helps EDF raise cash for its French nuclear fleet maintenance and new reactor builds. Read →
Energy Fuels agreed to acquire German magnet producer Vacuumschmelze (VAC) from Ara Partners for $1.9 billion in cash and stock. The deal creates a major non-Chinese rare earths-to-magnets supply chain for defense, auto and renewables. Ara Partners will hold roughly 20% of Energy Fuels post-deal. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US sanctions relief on Iranian oil and Russia weighing diesel export ban drive Regulation & Government moves.
The Trump administration is reversing decades of Iran sanctions as part of a deal to end conflict, open the Strait of Hormuz and lower energy prices. This creates uncertainty for banks and firms navigating new permissions alongside lingering restrictions on Iranian oil exports. Read →
Importers rush cargo ahead of impending US tariffs, pushing container freight rates to levels unseen since the 2024 Red Sea crisis. Surge reflects efforts to front-load shipments before levies raise costs on key commodity trade routes. Read →
Vladimir Putin confirmed gasoline queues and supply issues after refinery outages, noting a full ban on diesel exports is under consideration alongside existing gasoline and jet fuel restrictions. Moscow prioritizes domestic stability over export revenues for refined products. Read →
Treasury’s OFAC General License X authorizes production, sale, delivery and offloading of Iranian-origin crude, petroleum and petrochemicals through August 21, 2026. Narrow window supports interim US-Iran deal while broader sanctions framework remains in flux. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Retail traders on WSB are flooding a meme video of a tanker beaching with jokes about oil supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. Comments debate real-world physics, shipping realities, and potential price spikes from any blockade or cyber issues, tying into recent US-Iran tensions. The post has over 1,700 upvotes and hundreds of comments, highlighting retail focus on energy volatility. Read →
r/investing users discuss whether the sharp gold pullback offers a long-term buying opportunity or signals more downside ahead. Threads weigh gold as inflation hedge vs equities, central bank buying, and disaster scenarios, with mixed views on physical vs paper exposure. Post has hundreds of comments reflecting broad retail interest in the metal's outlook. Read →
Traders in uranium-focused subs scrutinize Energy Fuels (UUUU) metrics, noting realized prices and COGS that suggest heavy reliance on spot uranium above $100/lb for profitability. Discussions compare to peers like Cameco and highlight rare earth exposure amid nuclear demand growth. Ongoing thread reflects sustained retail trader interest in uranium equities despite volatility. Read →
X traders widely posting on US-Iran agreement to halt Strait of Hormuz strikes ahead of peace talks, easing shipping and sending Brent crude to $72.52. Markets shift back to tech/AI as oil fears subside, with repeated updates on stock bounces. Reflects acute retail and trader sensitivity to Middle East energy chokepoints. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Jeff Currie discusses the recent downdraft in WTI and Brent prices following the US-Iran peace deal. He notes a current crude surplus but highlights a product shortage that could drive prices higher later. Markets are overshooting to the downside amid the supply adjustments. Watch/Listen →
Natasha Kaneva analyzes oil prices extending losses as Hormuz flows ramp up to over 50% of pre-war levels. The market relied more on demand destruction than inventories for rebalancing. She discusses revised assumptions and price outlook for the rest of the year. Watch/Listen →
Paul Horsnell discusses the US-Iran MOU implications for oil markets with Bassam Fattouh. He warns the current gush of oil is unsustainable and the market is massively oversold. Balance unlikely before October if peace holds. Watch/Listen →
Daan Struyven discusses the impact of the US-Iran ceasefire on global energy markets. Covers supply adjustments and market implications following the framework agreement. Focuses on commodity research outlook. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.