The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
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Friday, September 18, 2026
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Last price as of Fri, Sep 18, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Brent $102 and WTI $100 on Friday, extending a third day of declines after Thursday’s close at $104.82 and $101.91. Saudi plans to restore about half of the damaged East-West pipeline within days, plus extra cargoes via Oman STS transfers, outweighed Thursday’s Saudi, Houthi strikes and Iran’s reported Hormuz tanker hit.
Trump said the Iran war may be “towards the end,” that Tehran wants a deal, and that he has heard from Iran directly. Next checkpoints: expected GCC talks in New York next week on Sep 22 and Xi in Washington on Sep 24.
Cocoa down $185 (-3.2%) on rising Ivorian port arrivals and ICE inventories hitting a two-year high. Trump told reporters he hoped the war was “towards the end,” that Iran “want[s] to make a deal,” and that he had heard from Tehran “directly.”
Palladium up $36 (+2.8%) on persistent South African mine supply constraints and institutional short-covering.
Silver up $1.61 (+2.4%) on falling US Treasury yields and a softer dollar after oil prices eased.
Lead up $43 (+2.1%) and Zinc up $62 (+1.8%), both on tighter supply fundamentals and lower mine output.
Trump said the Iran war may be “towards the end,” that Tehran wants a deal, and that he has heard from Iran directly. Next checkpoints: expected GCC talks in New York next week on Sep 22 and Xi in Washington on Sep 24.
Cocoa down $185 (-3.2%) on rising Ivorian port arrivals and ICE inventories hitting a two-year high. Trump told reporters he hoped the war was “towards the end,” that Iran “want[s] to make a deal,” and that he had heard from Tehran “directly.”
Palladium up $36 (+2.8%) on persistent South African mine supply constraints and institutional short-covering.
Silver up $1.61 (+2.4%) on falling US Treasury yields and a softer dollar after oil prices eased.
Lead up $43 (+2.1%) and Zinc up $62 (+1.8%), both on tighter supply fundamentals and lower mine output.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
JPMorgan analysts can't model oil path amid Iran war
Bloomberg · Thu, Sep 17, 2:16 PM ET
JPMorgan oil analysts say the path to ending the Iran war is impossible to predict after more than six months. Economic red lines like oil above $100 a barrel and gasoline near $5 a gallon have already been crossed, clouding any exit strategy. Read →
Global grain supplies tighten despite US bumper crop
Karen Braun · Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 10:00 AM ET
Global corn consumption is forecast to exceed production by nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27, the largest deficit in over three decades. Corn, wheat and soybean futures have rallied sharply even as US farmers harvest a huge crop. Read →
Trump-Xi summit to focus on ag, energy, rare earths
Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 10:55 PM ET
Agriculture, energy and rare earths are key bargaining chips ahead of next week's Trump-Xi meeting in Washington. China is on track for its 25 million ton annual US soybean pledge but energy tariff cuts are also under discussion. Read →
Oil drops on hopes Saudi pipeline fix limits outages
Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 9:01 PM ET
Brent fell about 1% to near $103.77 a barrel as Saudi Arabia moves to restore half its East-West pipeline capacity within days. Markets shrugged off fresh Houthi-Saudi strikes amid hopes of alternate export routes. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
2. Wolf Midstream Announces $500 Million Phase Three Expansion of its NGL North System Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 3US Natural Gas 4Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 3Global Nat Gas & LNG 0Power 1Coal 3Agriculture 2Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 2Environment 1Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 3Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 3Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Saudi pipeline repairs and Oman ship-to-ship transfers ease supply fears, sending Brent and WTI down 1 to 2% for third straight day.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 100.25 | -1.6% -1.66 |
+66.2% | +52.3% | +35.8% |
| Brent | 102.45 | -2.3% -2.37 |
+61.5% | +47.4% | +32.9% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.439 | -1.9% -0.068 |
+87.0% | +61.8% | +50.8% |
| Heating Oil | 5.006 | -2.1% -0.108 |
+126.2% | +108.7% | +122.2% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
44.20 | -2.6% -1.20 |
+160.9% +27.26 |
+88.6% +20.77 |
+101.1% +22.22 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
110.00 | -2.5% -2.87 |
+237.1% +77.37 |
+215.0% +75.08 |
+429.0% +89.21 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
66.13 | -2.6% -1.75 |
+198.3% +43.96 |
+142.6% +38.87 |
+206.3% +44.55 |
Oil drops third day as Middle East supply concerns ease
Bloomberg · Thu, Sep 17, 2026, 11:22 PM ET
WTI fell toward $101/bbl and Brent ended below $105 after shedding nearly 4% over two sessions. Saudi Arabia is ramping up prompt sales of crude outside the Strait of Hormuz and aims to restore half the East-West pipeline capacity within days following drone damage. Tankers continue limited transits through the Hormuz strait amid ongoing US-Iran diplomacy focus. Read →
Oil extends retreat as Saudi supply outlook improves
Allegra Fradkin · OPIS / Dow Jones · Thu, Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 ET
November Brent traded down $1.98 at $103.85/bbl and October WTI down $1.45 at $100.98/bbl midday Thursday. Saudi Arabia shifted loadings away from Yanbu and resumed some regional flows after East-West pipeline damage. US crude stocks fell 640k barrels last week while gasoline and distillate inventories rose; Hormuz traffic stays far below pre-war levels. Read →
Oil falls third day on limited Saudi disruption hopes
Sethuraman N R, Arathy Somasekhar · Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 2026, 11:48 PM ET
Brent fell 79 cents or 0.75% to $104/bbl and WTI fell 70 cents or 0.69% to $101.20/bbl. Saudi pipeline repair expectations and extra Oman loadings offset Yanbu suspension and Europe delivery cancellations. Fresh Saudi-Houthi fighting expanded the conflict front but had limited immediate price impact. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · EIA reports 44 Bcf storage build, below 49 Bcf consensus and 74 Bcf average, as LNG feedgas dips on Cameron maintenance.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 2.855 | -1.6% -0.046 |
-22.5% | -1.1% | -42.7% |
EIA gas storage · week ending Fri, Sep 11
A 44 Bcf injection took working gas to 3,298 Bcf, 118 Bcf (4%) above the five-year average and 122 Bcf below a year ago. That is 6 Bcf below the +50 Bcf consensus, bullish for price.
Working gas 3,298 Bcf +44 Bcf w/w | Year ago 3,420 Bcf | 5-yr avg 3,180 Bcf |
Consensus +50 Bcf this week | Year-ago chg +90 Bcf | 5-yr avg chg +73 Bcf |
Source: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report · Full EIA report →
Natgas futures fade after bullish 44 Bcf EIA build
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
EIA reported a 44 Bcf injection for the week ended Sept. 11, below the 49 Bcf consensus and 74 Bcf five-year average, lifting inventories to 3,298 Bcf (3.7% above average but 122 Bcf below year-ago). Futures rose initially on the tighter-than-expected build but lost momentum later in the session amid strong production and cooling weather forecasts. Read →
US natgas futures ease to $2.876 on LNG flows drop
Reuters · Thu, Sep 18, 2026
Front-month October futures fell 1.5 cents to $2.876/MMBtu as LNG feedgas flows dropped to a three-week low of 17.5 Bcf/d, mainly from maintenance at Sempra’s Cameron LNG in Louisiana. Lower 48 output rose to 113.1 Bcf/d in September while analysts expected a 49 Bcf storage build versus 74 Bcf average. Read →
EIA: +44 Bcf storage to 3,298 Bcf week ended Sep 11
EIA · Thu, Sep 17, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Working gas rose 44 Bcf to 3,298 Bcf, 122 Bcf below last year and 118 Bcf above the five-year average. East and Midwest led regional builds while South Central saw a 5 Bcf withdrawal; the lean injection reflects late-season heat supporting power burn. Read →
Cameron LNG train offline cuts feedgas to 1.3 Bcf/d
World Energy News / Reuters · Thu, Sep 18, 2026
One Cameron LNG train went offline for scheduled maintenance, dropping feedgas from 2 Bcf/d to 1.3 Bcf/d and contributing to a broader dip in US LNG export plant flows. The outage is temporary and will not interrupt customer service. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane spot at $0.855/gal (Sep 15) drives complex as counterseasonal 1.4 MMbbl propane draw narrows surplus ahead of winter.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.250 | +0.7% +0.002 |
+5.5% | +0.6% | -35.0% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
0.846 | +2.3% +0.019 |
+37.2% | +19.1% | -33.6% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.264 | +1.7% +0.021 |
+69.6% | +41.5% | -13.7% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.454 | +2.4% +0.033 |
+87.0% | +56.0% | +0.9% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.049 | +2.4% +0.047 |
+74.8% | +56.2% | +21.1% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 6 | +1 | +7 | unch | +1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 59 | +2 | +31 | +14 | -23 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -655 | +5 | -351 | -285 | -283 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -408 | +14 | -242 | -215 | -402 |
| C5 as % WTI | 86 | +3 | +4 | +2 | -10 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
US propane stocks draw 1.4 MMbbl counterseasonally, narrowing surplus.
RBN Energy · Wed, Sep 16, 2026
U.S. propane inventories posted a counterseasonal 1.4-MMbbl draw for the week ending Sep 11. Stocks remain historically high but continued draws could quickly narrow the surplus ahead of the winter heating season. The move supports Mont Belvieu prices amid strong export and petrochemical pull. Read →
MPLX sells Rockies G&P assets for $1B but retains NGLs for export.
East Daley Analytics · Tue, Sep 16, 2026
MPLX agreed to sell its Rockies G&P assets in the Green River and Uinta basins to Harvest Midstream for $1.0B cash but will retain control of associated NGLs via a 12 Mb/d dedication starting 2028. The deal right-sizes MPLX's portfolio as it pursues an NGL export strategy on the Gulf Coast through its ONEOK JV. Retained NGLs will flow via Enterprise's MAPL pipeline for fractionation and export. Read →
Golden Triangle ethane cracker delayed to 2027, postponing demand.
East Daley Analytics · Tue, Sep 16, 2026
The Golden Triangle Polymers ethane cracker JV (CPChem 51%, QatarEnergy 49%) in Orange, TX has been delayed by at least six months and is now expected to start up in 2027 versus prior 1H26 target. The 2 Mtpa ethane cracker plus two 1 Mtpa HDPE units will consume roughly 110 Mb/d of ethane once online. The delay extends the period of excess ethane supply in 2H26, likely softening Mont Belvieu prices and delaying support into 2027. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises to €78/MWh as EU storage lags seasonal norms amid mild weather and LNG send-out gains; JKM holds $26/MMBtu with Asia demand destruction freeing cargoes for Europe.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
77.02 | +0.9% +0.66 |
+173.5% | +138.4% | +2.3% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
25.93 | +0.9% +0.22 |
+173.5% | +138.4% | +2.3% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
26.75 | -1.7% -0.48 |
+178.5% | +135.4% | -1.6% |
EU gas storage · gas day Wed, Sep 16
EU gas storage is 68.8% full, 779 TWh in store, 16.1 points below the five-year average for this date and 12.1 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 56.0%.
EU full 68.8% +0.18 pts d/d | Year ago 81.0% | 5-yr avg 84.9% same date |
Germany 56.0% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Power
What's moving · PJM activates demand response amid warm weather and 36 GW outages, with DOE emergency order allowing data-center backup generation.
PJM activates demand response as heat and outages strain grid.
Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
PJM Interconnection called on large energy consumers across 13 states to curb consumption on Thursday amid high temperatures and about 36,000 MW of generation outages. The grid operator activated its demand response program, which pays participants to reduce use during peaks, and may curtail exports. The U.S. Department of Energy granted a temporary emergency order waiving environmental restrictions on power plants and allowing data centers to switch to backup generators. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China orders stable coal output as thermal prices hit three-year highs amid LNG-driven switching.
China tells miners to stabilize output as thermal prices hit 3-year high
Bloomberg · Thu, Sep 18, 2026
China’s National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration and National Mine Safety Administration issued a joint notice directing coal-producing regions and firms to accelerate steady output and reopen mines. Spot thermal coal prices have rallied to their highest level in nearly three years, pressuring Beijing after earlier import surges. The move aims to secure domestic supply and support economic growth as coal remains critical for power generation. Read →
China pushes miners to raise supply after thermal prices jump
Charles Kennedy · OilPrice.com · Thu, Sep 18, 2026
Beijing has instructed local miners to maintain stable production rates following a sharp rise in spot thermal coal prices to three-year highs. Coal still accounts for 49.7% of China’s power generation in the first half of the year despite renewable growth. The price surge prompted a modest dip in August imports after strong prior gains, highlighting vulnerability to swings in the power fuel. Read →
India power coal imports hit 15-month high on heat demand
Reuters · Wed, Sep 17, 2026
Indian power producers imported 5.52 million tonnes of coal in August, up 85.6% year-on-year and the highest since May 2025. About 80% came from Indonesia as a heatwave and weaker hydropower output lifted electricity demand beyond domestic supply gains. Nearly one-third of coal-fired plants now hold critically low stocks, sustaining seaborne buying despite elevated international prices. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Chinese state buyers book 1M tonnes US soybeans, pushing past halfway of 25M-tonne pledge ahead of Trump-Xi summit.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 530 | -0.2% -1 |
+20.3% | +24.9% | +1.5% |
| Wheat | 725 | -0.3% -2 |
+43.0% | +38.8% | +3.5% |
| Soybeans | 1,305 | -1.2% -15 |
+26.6% | +27.2% | +3.3% |
| Sugar | 18.38 | +0.3% +0.06 |
+22.5% | +18.9% | -2.5% |
| Coffee | 277.8 | +0.5% +1.3 |
-20.3% | -24.2% | +51.4% |
| Cocoa | 5,587 | -3.2% -185 |
-7.9% | -22.9% | +115.5% |
| Cotton | 82.24 | +0.1% +0.07 |
+28.2% | +26.9% | -8.3% |
Chinese state buyers book 1M tonnes US soybeans ahead of Trump-Xi summit
Rio Times · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
Chinese state-owned buyers purchased about 1 million tonnes of US soybeans in the week to Sep 17, advancing past the halfway mark of a 25-million-tonne annual commitment through 2028. November soybeans settled at 1,319.75 cents per bushel while corn and wheat futures slipped on accelerating US harvest progress ahead of the five-year average. The purchases coincide with the Sep 24 Trump-Xi meeting in Washington where agriculture is expected on the agenda, supporting soybean prices amid a tariff that keeps private Chinese crushers sidelined. Read →
Arabica coffee hits 10-week low; sugar, cocoa ease
Reuters via MarketScreener · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
Arabica coffee futures fell to a fresh 10-week low of $2.8120 per lb amid strong Brazilian exports and favorable weather for the 2027 crop, with ICE stocks at a 27-year low. Raw sugar slipped 0.3% to 17.88 cents per lb as lower oil prices reduced the incentive to produce ethanol over sugar. London cocoa held near £4,476 per tonne with buyers in Ghana seeking payment from COCOBOD before the new crop year. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Chinese physical buying lifts LME copper toward weekly gain as Yangshan premium hits $121/t high.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,681 | -0.0% -6 |
+18.3% | +45.7% | +61.7% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,475 | +1.5% +213 |
+14.0% | +46.2% | +51.8% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,220 | +0.8% +26 |
+8.2% | +25.5% | +11.0% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,507 | +1.8% +62 |
+16.8% | +27.5% | +14.9% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,369 | +1.0% +159 |
-3.3% | +7.7% | -20.3% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,153 | +2.1% +43 |
-2.3% | +3.3% | +5.6% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
53,571 | +1.6% +852 |
+27.5% | +57.9% | +56.7% |
Copper eyes weekly gain on China demand rebound.
Bloomberg · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
LME three-month copper held near $14,460/t on Friday, on track for a 1.6% weekly gain. Rebounding Chinese physical demand, shown by the Yangshan import premium reaching $121/t, offset Fed hawkish signals on rates. SHFE copper also rose, with low inventories supporting the move. Read →
Copper set for weekly gain as China demand offsets US policy pressure.
Reuters · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
LME copper slipped 0.2% to $14,467.50/t but headed for a 1.6% weekly advance. Stronger Chinese physical buying lifted the Yangshan premium to $121/t, its highest since October 2022, while SHFE stocks sat at 54,780 t, the lowest since January 2024. The move countered uncertainty over potential US refined copper tariffs. Read →
Copper rallies as Chinese buyers return to market.
Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
LME copper rose 1.2% to $14,408/t as Chinese buyers returned after a selloff. The Yangshan premium climbed to $118/t on Wednesday, its highest since October 2022, and domestic premiums over SHFE hit 645 yuan/t. SHFE-monitored stocks fell to 54,780 t amid shipments to the US on tariff expectations. Read →
Fatal accident hits Korea Zinc Onsan smelter; production impact unclear.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
A fatal fall killed a subcontractor on September 16 at Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter in South Korea during roof work on the roaster-acid system. No production cuts or shutdown notices have been issued yet as investigations continue. The 640 ktpa zinc facility's output impact remains uncertain pending inspection scope. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Chinese mills restock seaborne iron ore ahead of National Day holiday, lifting SGX/DCE prices despite weak steel margins.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
94.5 | +0.8% +0.8 |
-6.1% | -1.2% | -11.3% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
403 | -0.6% -3 |
+2.3% | +4.0% | -44.1% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
436 | -0.5% -2 |
+5.8% | +6.2% | -42.4% |
Iron ore heads for weekly gain on China restocking
Bloomberg · Thu, Sep 18, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Singapore iron ore futures rose for a third day, gaining about 1% this week to as high as $97.45 a ton and erasing earlier losses. The move came as Chinese steelmakers increased seaborne purchases ahead of the October National Day holiday, even with weak underlying steel demand and shrinking mill margins. Prices remain below the $100 psychological level for a sixth session. Read →
Iron ore rises on China pre-holiday buying
Reuters · Thu, Sep 18, 2026
The most-traded DCE iron ore contract rose 0.35% to 711 yuan ($105.94) a ton while the SGX October benchmark added 0.26% to $96.05 a ton. Steelmakers booked more seaborne cargoes, with daily transaction volumes jumping 43% to 1.41 million tons on Wednesday per Mysteel data. Rebar futures gained 0.1% and hot-rolled coil 0.24% on the Shanghai exchange amid persistent mill losses. Read →
Vale shares rise on China holiday restocking
Rio Times Online · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
Vale New York shares rose 2.41% to $14.47 while Rio Tinto and BHP also gained over 2% as Chinese mills accelerated seaborne iron ore purchases before the October 1 to 7 holiday. Daily seaborne volumes hit 1.41 million tonnes, up 43%, supporting steel futures with rebar up 0.1% and hot-rolled coil 0.24%. The 62% Fe benchmark held near $97.41 a tonne. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rebounds nearly 2% to $4,350/oz as oil eases and Treasury yields fall after Fed hike.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,431 | +0.7% +31 |
+2.1% | +19.6% | +151.2% |
| Silver | 67.71 | +2.4% +1.61 |
-3.5% | +59.2% | +205.5% |
| Platinum | 1,823 | +1.6% +28 |
-10.4% | +28.9% | +102.3% |
| Palladium | 1,339 | +2.8% +36 |
-17.8% | +16.4% | -28.2% |
Gold holds gains near $4,350 as oil drops and yields ease post-Fed hike.
Bloomberg · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
Spot gold traded around $4,350 an ounce after rising almost 2% on Thursday, recovering most losses from the prior three sessions. The rebound followed the Fed's first rate hike since 2023 and a drop in oil prices that reduced inflation concerns. Lower Treasury yields across maturities also eased pressure on the non-yielding metal. Read →
Gold jumps over 2% as dollar and oil prices ease after Fed rate hike.
Noel John · Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
Spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,360.36 per ounce on Thursday, rebounding from a near six-week low. Easing oil prices to a one-week low and a softer US dollar supported the move, with silver up 4.2%, platinum up 1.8% and palladium up 1.6%. Traders assessed the Fed's rate increase and signals of further hikes. Read →
Venezuela nears deal to shift $4bn gold from Bank of England to New York Fed.
Financial Times · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
Venezuela's interim government and opposition are close to an agreement to transfer about $4 billion in central bank gold reserves from the Bank of England to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The deal would give legal control to the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez but bar immediate sales; the gold could serve as collateral for borrowing to fund earthquake reconstruction. This would end a seven-year dispute over the holdings. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · MP Materials advances heavy rare earth separation and magnet deliveries amid China export controls.
MP Materials posts strong Q2 with NdPr gains and gadolinium deal.
Benzinga · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
MP Materials reported 41% YoY NdPr production growth and doubled revenue in Q2 2026 despite a planned shutdown. It secured a long-term gadolinium oxide supply agreement with a major US aerospace/defense firm and is commissioning its DyTb circuit for terbium and dysprosium output later this year. Initial commercial magnet deliveries are slated for Q4 2026 to customers including GM and Apple, bolstering non-Chinese permanent magnet supply chains. Read →
Europe lags US in critical minerals projects due to red tape.
Andy Home · Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act targets face delays, with 23 of 60 strategic projects in jeopardy from fragmented financing and permitting bottlenecks. Rare earth projects are limited to five, mostly recycling-focused, despite heavy reliance on China. This contrasts with US deals worth over $40 billion, heightening Europe's vulnerability to Chinese supply controls on dysprosium, terbium and magnets. Read →
Victory Metals wins mining lease for WA heavy rare earths project.
Australian Mining / Listcorp · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
Victory Metals received Western Australia's Mining Lease M20/564 on September 11, 2026, covering nearly 2,006 hectares at its North Stanmore heavy rare earth project. The grant follows a native title agreement and supports the PFS showing a 20-year operation with strong dysprosium and terbium potential. It de-risks development of a non-Chinese source for heavy rare earths under export controls. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index rises 0.3% to 3,336, snapping five-day losing streak on capesize gains from Chinese iron ore buys.
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd shift four more Gemini services to Suez
Louise Rasmussen · Reuters · Mon, Sep 14, 2026
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will route AE5, AE11, AE12 and ME2 Gemini services through the Suez Canal instead of the Cape of Good Hope. The moves bring six Gemini services onto the shorter route, with first westbound sailings starting September 19. Carriers cite efficiency gains but will monitor Red Sea security. Read →
Oman-China VLCC rates near $900K/day on Hormuz risk
Lloyd's List · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
Baltic Exchange Oman-China VLCC index reached $870,947 per day with a fixture on subjects at $912,864. TD3C MEG-China hit $1.2 million per day. Escalating Hormuz risks and shuttle tanker delays are driving the surge across VLCC lanes. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU countries back extra 121M free CO2 permits for heavy industry, pressuring EUA prices amid reform debate.
California carbon futures hit three-month lows
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Sep 18, 2026
California Carbon Allowance futures dropped to around $32, their lowest in three months, amid September option expiry, an industry conference and ongoing linkage talks with Washington. The decline reflects subdued trading and market positioning ahead of further regulatory developments in the Western Climate Initiative. Prices remain sensitive to supply dynamics and cross-border harmonization efforts. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · SEC grants five-year exemption for onchain tokenized NMS stock trading via AMMs, spurring RWA momentum.
SEC grants five-year exemption for tokenized stock trading
Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 4:02 PM ET
The SEC issued a five-year conditional exemption allowing Tokenized Securities Venues (TSVs) to trade tokenized National Market System stocks onchain using permissioned automated market makers and liquidity pools without registering as exchanges. Liquidity providers also gain dealer-registration relief. The move, part of Project Crypto, follows the Senate's failure to advance broader legislation and applies only to tokens with identical rights to underlying shares. Read →
SEC issues innovation exemption for tokenized stock venues
Krisztian Sandor, Nikhilesh De, Jesse Hamilton · CoinDesk · Thu, Sep 17, 9:00 AM ET
The SEC granted TSVs a five-year exemption from the exchange definition to operate onchain AMM liquidity pools for tokenized NMS stocks. Issuers can opt out, synthetics are barred, and venues must be U.S. persons with participant screening. Chairman Paul Atkins called it a step to bring capital markets onchain while the agency gathers data for future rules. Read →
Hyperliquid tops 30-day perp volume at $239B
Sharmistha Suman · Crypto Times · Thu, Sep 17, 1:56 PM ET
Hyperliquid recorded $239.24 billion in 30-day perpetual futures volume, far ahead of Arbitrum and others, with $8.31 billion in the latest 24 hours and $6.8 billion open interest. HIP-3 RWA and commodity perps, including equities and metals, drove much of the activity as the platform expands tokenized exposure. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Plains buys Silver Creek Powder River assets for $585M as National Fuel weighs $5B Seneca spinoff or sale.
Plains buys Silver Creek Powder River assets for $585M
GlobeNewswire / PR Newswire · Wed, Sep 16, 2026
Plains All American agreed to buy Silver Creek Midstream’s Powder River Basin crude oil midstream assets for about $585 million in cash. The deal adds roughly 600 miles of pipelines with 350,000 bpd capacity, 1.2 million barrels of storage and a 49% stake in the Powder River Gateway JV. It expands Plains’ Rockies footprint and connectivity to producers in a basin with long-term drilling inventory. Read →
National Fuel sets Oct 15 deadline on Seneca split
Reuters · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
National Fuel Gas said its board will finish evaluating a plan by Oct 15 to separate into two public companies. One would be a regulated utility and pipeline business; the other an independent Appalachian upstream and gathering firm built around Seneca. Any separation would be a tax-free distribution to shareholders. Read →
CRC sells Uinta assets for $90M to focus on California
Oil & Gas 360 / GlobeNewswire · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
California Resources agreed to sell its Uinta Basin assets, acquired via the Berry merger, for about $90 million in cash. The non-core Utah/Colorado properties have an effective date of July 1 and are expected to close by year-end. Proceeds will support shareholder returns and offset recent midstream spending while sharpening focus on higher-return California operations. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US delays China excess-capacity tariffs until after Trump-Xi summit to preserve leverage.
US delays China excess-capacity tariffs until after Xi summit
Bloomberg · Thu, Sep 17, 6:03 PM ET
The US will hold off on announcing new tariffs on China and other partners recommended in an excess-capacity trade report until after next week’s Trump-Xi summit. The delay keeps the 7.5% tariff threat on Chinese goods available as negotiating leverage. Commodity markets watch for any signals on agriculture, energy and rare-earth trade concessions. Read →
House passes Russia sanctions bill with 100% tariff powers
Yoko Kubota and Olivia Beavers · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Sep 16, 7:16 PM ET
The House passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 262 to 159, sending it to Trump for signature. The bill authorizes tariffs up to 100% on the top five purchasers of Russian oil or gas, including China and India, plus sanctions on officials, banks and the shadow fleet. It also extends Iran energy sanctions for five years. Read →
USDA plan targets foreign barriers to US biofuel exports
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 16, 8:49 PM ET
The USDA released a Biofuels Roadmap to remove foreign restrictions on US ethanol and renewable diesel made from corn and soybeans. The plan specifically calls out EU policies capping crop-based biofuels and urges engagement with trading partners and UN agencies to expand export markets. Record 2025 exports make policy changes abroad critical for absorbing bumper US harvests. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders track Hormuz premium, Russian refinery outages, tanker fires
X / multiple traders · Thu, Sep 17
OOTT traders highlight TANEKO ELOU-AVT-7 unit outage (188 kbpd offline) layered on Iran/Hormuz premium already at $30 in Brent. Discussions note tanker incidents in Hormuz and potential Russian refining hits as key for marginal bids. Oil traders emphasize path-dependent supply risks from ongoing Middle East tensions. Read →
Pipeline and Yanbu offline, force majeure declared, 5 to 7M bpd gone
X / multiple traders · Thu, Sep 17
Traders cite major hits to Saudi East/West pipeline and Yanbu terminal leaving 5 to 7 million barrels per day offline with force majeure declared for Sep/Oct. Conversation focuses on how long disruptions last and potential for $200 oil if supply stays curtailed. Read →
Retail traders debate oil levels, Hormuz, China buys, gas spikes
r/oil · Wed, Sep 16
r/oil daily thread sees retail positioning on WTI around $100+, Hormuz/Malacca flows, China buying surge, and local gas price spikes. Traders note disconnection from fundamentals, potential Fed effects, and crowded long positioning ahead of weekend developments. Read →
Gold hits resistance at 4400 as oil eases inflation fears
X / multiple traders · Thu, Sep 17
Traders note gold rebounding 2%+ post-Fed hike, eyeing $4400 resistance and silver $66. Lower oil prices from easing supply concerns and softer Treasury yields support safe-haven buying. Discussions link commodity moves to post-FOMC reassessment. Read →
Oil analyst vents on non-traders lecturing energy markets
X / @cbjom · Thu, Sep 17
Prominent #OOTT voice Crudehead highlights frustration with macro commentators explaining US/Iran war effects on energy, contrasting with actual oil market nuance. Thread draws replies from other energy traders on common experience. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Oil prices to grind higher amid supply issues
Oil prices will grind higher unless diesel supply issues resolve quickly. Watch/Listen →
Oil tightening, Brent to $100 later this year
Oil-on-water inventories fell sharply as Middle East supply stays constrained, pushing Brent toward $100 later this year. Watch/Listen →
Structural shortages across commodities
Supply shocks from chokepoints are creating structural shortages in oil, copper and other commodities. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
17%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
WHO declares new pandemic in 2026
6%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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