Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Sep 19, 2026
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Downey's Take on the Past Week
Brent down $5.32 (-5.1%) for the week on easing fears of Saudi East-West pipeline disruption as Riyadh moves to restore half capacity within days and reroutes cargoes via Oman ship-to-ship transfers. Trump and GCC in NY on Tues (Sep 22) next and China’s Xi in DC on Thurs (Sep 24) next. Diplomatic noise: reports that China, after a Saudi request, privately urged Iran to restrain Houthi attacks on Saudi energy assets.
Coffee down $36.4 (-11.6%) over the week on strong Brazilian harvest completion and record August shipments boosting near-term availability.
JKM up $2.63 (+10.5%) on Middle East conflict tightening LNG supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and heightened Asian winter procurement demand.
Cocoa down $603 (-10.2%) on rising Ivory Coast port arrivals signaling seasonal surplus and elevated ICE certified stocks.
Sugar down $0.75 (-4.1%) on lower oil prices reducing ethanol competitiveness and encouraging mills to shift cane allocation.
Silver up $2.59 (+4.0%) on falling oil prices and US Treasury yields easing inflation and rate-hike concerns.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long European gasoline futures for mid-2027 as refiners shift output to diesel amid tightening product markets.
Coffee down $36.4 (-11.6%) over the week on strong Brazilian harvest completion and record August shipments boosting near-term availability.
JKM up $2.63 (+10.5%) on Middle East conflict tightening LNG supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and heightened Asian winter procurement demand.
Cocoa down $603 (-10.2%) on rising Ivory Coast port arrivals signaling seasonal surplus and elevated ICE certified stocks.
Sugar down $0.75 (-4.1%) on lower oil prices reducing ethanol competitiveness and encouraging mills to shift cane allocation.
Silver up $2.59 (+4.0%) on falling oil prices and US Treasury yields easing inflation and rate-hike concerns.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long European gasoline futures for mid-2027 as refiners shift output to diesel amid tightening product markets.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Hormuz tanker flows recovered toward 8 million bpd but remain far below pre-conflict levels amid ongoing attacks and stalled Iran-Oman corridor talks.
The angle · Own front-month Brent against deferred; backwardation should steepen on persistent Gulf export shortfall.
LME copper stocks rose nearly 20 percent since mid-August as COMEX inflows slowed on tariff uncertainty and Chinese physical buying returned.
The angle · LME over COMEX copper; location arb should narrow as Asian demand lifts nearby premiums.
Black Sea wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine fell more than half versus five-year average in July-September on port strikes and rerouting.
The angle · Matif over Chicago wheat; geographic arb should widen as European origins bid against ample US supply.
MEG-China VLCC rates hit fresh highs near $24 per barrel as Hormuz risk escalates and Saudi East-West pipeline stays offline.
The angle · Front VLCC freight calendar spread; structure should steepen on sustained war-risk premium.
EU natural gas storage sits around 68 percent full, well below seasonal norms, as LNG cargoes divert to Asia amid Hormuz constraints.
The angle · TTF winter-summer spread; backwardation should widen on tighter European refill trajectory.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from Hyperliquid's 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$100.33
+0.03 +0.03%
vs Fri close $100.30
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$2.90
-0.01 -0.25%
vs Fri close $2.91
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, September 18, 2026
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver | 67.15 | +4.0% +2.59 |
-4.3% | +53.3% | +203.0% |
| Copper | 14,752 | +3.4% +489 |
+18.9% | +46.3% | +62.5% |
| Corn | 528 | +3.4% +17 |
+19.8% | +25.1% | +1.1% |
| Nat Gas | 2.912 | +2.9% +0.081 |
-21.0% | +3.8% | -41.6% |
| Soybeans | 1,304 | +1.8% +23 |
+26.5% | +28.9% | +3.2% |
| Gold | 4,425 | +0.4% +16 |
+1.9% | +17.2% | +150.9% |
| Dutch TTF | 79.52 | -0.0% -0.00 |
+182.4% | +149.7% | +5.6% |
| WTI Crude | 100.30 | -4.0% -3.97 |
+67.3% | +53.4% | +36.7% |
| Brent | 103.87 | -5.1% -5.32 |
+63.2% | +49.2% | +34.3% |
| Cocoa | 5,330 | -10.2% -603 |
-12.1% | -23.4% | +105.6% |
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Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
Oil Market Report September 2026 · IEA · Sep 19
Supply and demand both slashed; full Gulf recovery pushed to 2027 amid persistent disruptions. Read →
• Demand -2.5 mb/d in 2026, steeper than prior forecast
• Supply -5.7 mb/d to 100.7 mb/d this year
• Inventories 507 mb cumulative draw since Feb
• Diesel extreme tightness, record cracks in Atlantic
JPM drops oil baseline; endgame unmodelable · JPMorgan · Sep 18
Red lines crossed; market prices extra 4 mb/d risk on top of 10 mb/d already lost. Read →
• Fair value $90/bbl vs spot near $106
• Demand destruction 4.4 mb/d below y/y
• Diesel US all-time high $6.31/gal pre-winter
• Inventories buffer limits further spikes for now
Commodities Update September 2026 · Westpac · Sep 15
Most commodities rose in August on risk premium; steelmaking inputs lagged. Read →
• LNG +15.9% mth on tightness and ME tensions
• Gold +8.4% mth
• Copper +5.5% mth
• Iron ore/coking coal down 2 to 3% mth
Monthly Market Review August 2026 · Wellington Management · Sep 16
Energy and metals rose on Middle East disruptions and safe-haven flows. Read →
• Commodities +6.1% in Aug
• Precious metals +10%, silver +15%
• Copper record highs on tariffs and mine supply
• Zinc +7.3% on tight inventories
Copper Market Outlook · JPMorgan · Recent (within period)
Mine supply growth anemic; US-China import tug-of-war tightens ex-US market. Read →
• Refined deficit 330 kt in 2026
• Mine supply growth +1.4% only
• Grasberg/Quebrada Blanca disruptions
• Tariff review keeps arbitrage supportive
Oil Price Spikes Preview Commodity Shocks · Goldman · Recent (within period)
Oil era fading; copper, lithium, aluminum face supply shortfalls from power race. Read →
• Copper AI data centers, EVs, grid demand
• Supply unable to match soaring needs
• Shift from oil-centric to metals-centric demand
• New supply shocks likely ahead
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
Private business tax burden study insights · Odd Lots · Sep 18
• Tax study of private owners requested by Treasury
• Auto dealers and contractors key focus
• Findings on owed taxes detailed
US natural gas 2026 outlook · HC Commodities · Sep 1
US natural gas powers data centers and fills European storage amid Hormuz gap Listen →
• Data center demand heavy lifting
• Europe mild winter bet
• El Niño adds volatility
Fed credibility and bond market · MacroVoices · Sep 17
Mortgage convexity and hyperscaler borrowing rewire global bond market Listen →
• Fed credibility crisis
• Fiscal recklessness raises term premiums
• ETFs reshape flows
Iran war six months energy shock · Columbia Energy Exchange · Sep 15
Tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed to fraction of pre-war baseline Listen →
• Brent broke $100 first since July
• US diesel above $6/gallon record
• Fallout spreading beyond Gulf
Commodities comms in crises · HC Commodities · Sep 8
Corporate communications in commodities on hard mode due to crises and scrutiny Listen →
• Anomalous events define sector
• Missing cargoes and accusations
• Large corporates building trading platforms
Hormuz situation worse than 6 months ago · CNBC Closing Bell Overtime · Sep 15
Hormuz situation worse than 6 months ago with rising crude prices Listen →
• Oil prices impact China
• Escalating Middle East situation
• Diesel and refining pressures
Commodity Intelligence
Split 2-1 positive on oil.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
| Oil | ▲ Up | 2 of 3 AIs | Up 5th straight week |
| Copper | ▲ Up | 2 of 3 AIs | Up 6th straight week |
| US Nat Gas | ▼ Down | 2 of 3 AIs | Down 6th straight week |
| Gold | ▲ Up | all 3 AIs | Up unanimous 6 weeks |
Why they disagree on oil
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI
▲ Up Mideast supply risks and inventory draws tighten market.
Gemini · Google
▲ Up OPEC+ maintains tight supply. Geopolitical tensions persist, risking disruptions. Resilient demand will push prices higher over the next significant move.
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Demand fears from trade-war slowdown outweigh OPEC cuts; rising inventories tip the scale bearish.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated from public sources; every item links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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