Morgan Downey's Commodity News

The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world

Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA

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Markets at a glance

Last price as of Wed, Sep 2, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.

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Downey's Take

Crude oil rallied $2 (to $92 WTI before selling off) overnight, then faded (to $90 WTI $95 Brent)
Conflicting shipping data: some trackers showed tanker crossings slumping to just 4, 5 vessels on Tuesday versus a recent average near 13, but official US figures were more optimistic (some ships operate with transponders off).
Crude is now up $10/bbl since last Wednesday.
Overnight Tues/Weds, the US carried out airstrikes on IRGC targets. Iran responded with strikes on US-linked sites in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. This followed weekend fighting and Monday attacks on two tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
Distillate (diesel) cracks and Asian LNG grinding higher every day.
Cotton down $3.95 (-4.2%) on speculative long liquidation and profit-taking after August rally plus stronger US dollar.
JKM up $0.91 (+4.0%) on persistent Hormuz disruption concerns tightening Asian LNG supply amid hot weather lifting power demand.
Coffee down $6.3 (-2.0%) on accelerating Brazil harvest progress and warehouse saturation boosting physical supply plus rising global surplus forecasts.
Platinum down $35 (-2.0%) on rising global bond yields and stronger US dollar weighing on precious metals.
Wheat down $15 (-1.9%) on profit-taking after recent Black Sea supply-driven highs and diplomatic hopes for safer grain shipping corridors.
Iron Ore down $1.6 (-1.7%) on subdued steel demand and high Chinese port inventories pressuring prices despite minor restocking.

Kicker: Long wheat calendar spread (near vs far) on El Niño weather risks tightening 2026/27 balances, per Citi.

Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.

Must reads

Emily Herbert and Malcolm Moore · Financial Times · Wed, Sep 2, 7:21 AM ET

European natural gas prices at the TTF hub broke above €75/MWh for the first time since early 2023, reaching the highest level since the start of the war in February. The surge followed US strikes on Iran and raised fears of prolonged supply disruptions heading into winter, with Brent crude also touching a five-week high near $97 a barrel. Read →

Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 1, 10:54 PM ET

Three-month copper fell below $14,200 a ton in London for a second day as resurgent oil prices fueled concerns about the world economy. Crude rose after US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, complicating hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Read →

Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 1, 4:00 AM ET

Asian spot LNG prices climbed to $24.614 per million British thermal units on worries that US-Iran hostilities would prolong disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Read →

Reuters · Wed, Sep 2, 12:55 AM ET

Brent rose 0.8% to $95.40 a barrel and WTI climbed 0.5% to $90.66 as US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation heightened supply disruption fears through the Strait of Hormuz. Read →

Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 1, 2:02 PM ET

Chevron is finalizing a deal to expand in Venezuela by adding two giant oil fields in the Orinoco Belt as part of President Trump’s push to ramp up production there. Read →

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In this issue

Oil 3US Natural Gas 4Global Nat Gas & LNG 2Power 3Coal 2Agriculture 4Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 2Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 2Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 4Watch & Listen 1Prediction Markets

Markets News

Irina Slav · Oilprice.​com · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

Kpler data showed only four tanker crossings on Tuesday, below the 10-day average of 13. Windward reported similarly low numbers, some in dark mode. Attacks on supertankers and renewed hostilities threaten the tentative recovery of flows through the strait. Read →

Charles Kennedy · Oilprice.​com · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

The Sidr (Bahri-operated) and Senegal Prosperity (Sinokor-operated) VLCCs were hit outbound from the Persian Gulf near Khasab, Oman. UKMTO warned of a Monday incident with three projectiles; no casualties reported. Iran separately claimed a supertanker hit mines while transiting illegally. Read →

Julianne Geiger · Oilprice.​com · Mon, Sep 1, 2026

API estimated US crude inventories dropped 2.6 million barrels for the week ended Aug 28. Distillate stocks fell another 300,000 barrels; gasoline rose modestly. Commercial crude has drawn sharply over 20 weeks despite SPR releases, keeping inventories tight. Read →

Reuters · Tue, Sep 2, 2026

US natural gas futures for October delivery fell 7.4 cents or 2.5% to $2.861 per mmBtu on Tuesday. LSEG reported record Lower 48 output of 111.5 bcfd in August, up from the prior high of 110.7 bcfd in July. LNG feedgas flows rose to 18.3 bcfd so far in September while Freeport LNG feedgas dipped to 1.9 bcfd. Read →

Chris Newman · Natural Gas Intelligence · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Natural gas futures clawed back most early losses Tuesday as Tropical Storm Edouard approached the Texas-Louisiana LNG corridor. Feedgas nominations at Gulf Coast terminals held near recent levels with the storm's heaviest rains expected west of the export complex and zero threat to production. National LNG demand stayed steady near 19.1 bcfd. Read →

Jacob Dick · Natural Gas Intelligence · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Feedgas nominations Tuesday held near recent levels at Gulf Coast LNG terminals as Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. Forecasters put the storm's heaviest rains west of the export complex and its threat to production at zero. Golden Pass trimmed 109 MMcf/d while other terminals showed resilience. Read →

Christopher Lenton · Natural Gas Intelligence · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

US LNG output rose sharply this year with feedgas topping 19 bcf/d. Benchmark Henry Hub prices have barely budged despite the export surge. Production hovers near record levels, keeping the market well supplied. Read →

Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Dutch front-month TTF futures jumped as much as 6.5% to their highest level since January 2023 after the US launched new strikes against Iran. Prices are now over 70% higher than early July levels when a temporary ceasefire raised supply hopes. Escalation has amplified worries over extended Middle East energy disruptions. Read →

Charles Kennedy · OilPrice.​com · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Asian spot LNG prices climbed to $24.614/MMBtu, the highest in five months, as buyers including Pakistan and Bangladesh seek cargoes to replace blocked Qatari volumes. QatarEnergy extended force majeure on deliveries into November amid stalled Hormuz traffic. South Korean, Indian, Taiwanese and Bangladeshi utilities tender for October-November spot supply. Read →

Utility Dive · Tue, Sep 1, 5:00 PM ET

PJM filed a proposal at FERC on Friday for a one-time reliability backstop auction running Sept. 30 to Oct. 21 to procure new capacity against the 6.8 GW shortfall from its prior base residual auction. The filing targets surging data-center load forecasts, with PJM estimating potential growth of up to 70 GW by 2038, and includes a bilateral contracting process that could reduce the auction target. The proposal sets a $555/MW-day price cap and would allocate costs across PJM zones. Read →

Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 6:03 AM ET

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed ERCOT and state regulators to audit all proposed data centers in the interconnection queue, halting new grid connections until verification of ownership, power use, water consumption, and incentives. Requests have surged from 48 GW in 2023 to more than 474 GW currently, with about 90% from data centers, more than five times ERCOT’s record peak demand. ERCOT delayed its Batch Zero transmission planning study in response. Read →

Utility Dive · Tue, Sep 1, 5:00 PM ET

Monitoring Analytics reported that data-center load forecasts accounted for $6.5 billion, or 40%, of the $16.4 billion in costs from PJM’s December capacity auction. Across the last three auctions, data-center forecasts beyond existing loads drove $21.3 billion, or 45%, of the $47.2 billion total cleared capacity cost. The monitor stated data-center growth is the primary driver of tight supply-demand conditions, high prices, and shortfalls. Read →

NDTV Profit · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

Coal India reported August production down 5.7% YoY to 47.5 MT while offtake rose 5.5% to 60.6 MT. E-auction premiums hit 59% above notified prices, up from 46% year-to-date, boosting realizations as the firm sells from stockpiles amid 11% YoY thermal power demand growth. Brokerages including Nuvama upgraded estimates and targets, with pithead inventories falling sharply. Read →

Nigel D'Souza, Hormaz Fatakia · CNBC TV18 · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

Coal India shares gained over 3.5% after August data showed e-auction premiums at 59% and dispatches up 6.7% YoY to 322.9 MT in April-August. Production fell but offtake outpaced it, signaling inventory drawdown; UBS maintains buy rating with Rs 550 target citing power demand strength. Read →

Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

US soybean futures reached their highest level since 2023 after the Trump administration’s renewable fuel exemption announcement proved more bullish than expected for biofuel demand. Soybeans serve as a key feedstock for biodiesel and other renewable fuels. The move lifted the soy complex and spilled over to support corn and wheat prices. Read →

Ben Potter · Farm Progress · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

November soybean futures jumped nearly 30 cents to $13.1775 after USDA crop progress data showed good-to-excellent ratings falling 2 points to 58%. A private export sale of 5 million bushels of new-crop soybeans to China added support. Corn and wheat futures also gained on technical buying and spillover strength. Read →

Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

Chicago corn futures dropped as much as 1.8% on Wednesday, the largest intraday decline in nearly three weeks, as profit-taking hit after a multi-week rally. The pullback followed gains driven by Black Sea supply disruptions and heat-wave risks to output. Wheat and soybeans also retreated. Read →

ADM Investor Services · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

November soybeans surged above $13 to new contract highs after USDA announced a 136,000 MT flash sale to China and crop ratings fell to 58% good-to-excellent. Corn and meal prices also advanced with Dec corn making new highs amid tightening global stocks outlook from lower EU and US production expectations. Read →

Reuters · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

Benchmark three-month copper on the LME fell 0.99% to $14,133.50 per metric ton by 0300 GMT, while the SHFE contract dropped 1.65% to 107,710 yuan. Zinc cancelled warrants hit 30,875 tons, the highest in over a year, but LME zinc still fell 1.43%. Renewed Middle East hostilities lifted oil and the dollar, reviving inflation concerns and rate-hike odds that pressure demand for dollar-priced metals. Read →

Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

LME three-month zinc hit $3,990, its highest since May 2022, before easing to $3,933; copper touched $14,441.50, a seven-month high, then fell. Tight LME zinc stocks at 68,250 tons and Chinese inventory drawdowns supported prices earlier, but a firmer dollar from bond selloffs and Middle East fighting reversed gains. Other LME metals including aluminium, nickel and tin also eased. Read →

Energy News · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

LME three-month copper fell 0.86% to $14,152 per ton and SHFE copper dropped 1.35%. LME zinc declined 0.82%. A stronger dollar after Middle East oil spikes and hawkish Fed comments outweighed supply tightness signals such as rising zinc cancelled warrants. US factory slowdown data added to demand concerns across the complex. Read →

Energy News · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

Producers offered Japanese buyers $310-$325 per ton premiums for Q4 shipments, down 18 to 22% from Q3 levels of $395. Weak spot prices, improving Asian balances from Indonesian supply, and softening European premiums drove the lower bids. Global primary aluminium output fell 1.7% year-on-year in July amid Gulf disruptions. Read →

Rio Times Online · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

On Sep 1 the 62% Fe benchmark settled up 0.17% at $95.84/t and Dalian’s most-traded contract rose 0.76% to 727 yuan/t as port-side spot prices firmed 3 to 5 yuan. Buying reflected mills replenishing inventories rather than stronger end-user demand; China’s July crude steel output fell 3.6% y/y to 76.93 Mt. This provides short-term support but keeps the price range capped near $93 to 100/t since June. Read →

BigMint · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

Mysteel projects a global iron-unit surplus of 30 Mt in H2 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand. H1 hot-metal output at 247 surveyed mills fell 0.6% y/y to 410 Mt while port stocks absorbed the excess. The 61% Australian fines index is seen trading $88 to 105/t in H2 versus $97 to 113/t in H1, with annual average around $100/t. Read →

Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Spot gold dropped 0.6% to $4,304.01/oz, its lowest since August 7, after US airstrikes on Iran triggered retaliation and lifted oil prices. Higher crude stoked inflation and Fed rate-hike odds near 67%, pressuring non-yielding metals while the dollar held firm. Silver, platinum and palladium also fell 1 to 1.4%. Read →

The Times of India · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

Spot gold slipped 0.6% to $4,304/oz amid US-Iran clashes that boosted oil and yields. Traders priced in a 67% chance of a September Fed hike per CME FedWatch, with futures down over 1%. Other PGMs declined alongside as physical and ETF demand stayed sidelined. Read →

Peter Nurse · Investing.​com · Tue, Sep 2, 2026

Spot gold edged up 1.2% above $5,000/oz and silver rose 3.8% to $79.85/oz, rebounding from sharp swings tied to profit-taking and policy uncertainty. PBOC extended its gold-buying streak to 15 straight months through January, adding 40,000 oz to reach 74.19 million oz. Analysts noted institutional and official-sector support persists despite near-term volatility. Read →

Shane Lasley · Metal Tech News · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Neo Performance Materials signed a binding term sheet with France's Carester for multi-year supply of dysprosium and terbium oxides from the new Caremag facility. Neo will send magnet-making scrap for recycling and process Carester's mixed carbonate at its Estonian Silmet plant. The deal strengthens Europe's non-Chinese magnet supply chain ahead of commercial production at Neo's facility in H2 2026. Read →

Shane Lasley · Metal Tech News · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Energy Fuels completed its acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials, adding operating rare earth metals and alloys production in South Korea plus the Dubbo project. The move integrates upstream processing with planned U.S. magnet capacity and follows conditional $725 million U.S. government financing. It advances the company's pivot toward rare earths comprising the majority of future earnings. Read →

Global Mining Review · Fri, Sep 2, 2026

Saudi Maaden signed a binding term sheet with MP Materials and U.S. Department of War backing for a rare earth refining and separation JV in Saudi Arabia. Maaden will hold at least 51% with MP and DoW targeting 49% equity; the facility will process global feedstock. The project diversifies supply chains under a new U.S.-Saudi critical minerals framework. Read →

ShippingWatch · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

A laden Korean Sinokor VLCC was hit by rockets while transiting the Strait of Hormuz and is now listing off Oman. The incident follows similar attacks, including one on the Saudi VLCC SIDR that killed two sailors. Heightened risks in the chokepoint tighten VLCC availability and support elevated spot earnings for crude tankers. Read →

ShippingWatch · Wed, Sep 2, 2026

A tanker was hit by three projectiles while in the Strait of Hormuz. The attack adds to recent violence against shipping in the waterway, including incidents involving Saudi and other vessels. Such events sustain war-risk premiums and constrain effective tanker supply on key crude routes. Read →

Hellenic Shipping News · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

The container market continues rising to its highest level since October 2022. Tight tonnage supply, with 2026 almost sold out, persistent port congestion exceeding pandemic levels, and geopolitical disruption in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz support the gains. Charter rates for various sizes have firmed accordingly. Read →

Graham Gibson · Carbon Pulse · Tue, Sep 2, 2026

Traders and analysts told Carbon Pulse that linkage prospects with the California-Quebec market plus other sales ahead of next year’s compliance deadline will shape Washington’s Q3 carbon auction. They generally expect a result around secondary market prices, though some anticipate a settle several dollars higher or lower. The auction timing and expectations directly influence near-term allowance pricing and trading in the US compliance complex. Read →

Carbon Pulse · Sun, Aug 31, 2026

California’s Office of Administrative Law approved the state’s update to its Cap-and-Invest regulation on Monday, finalizing a multi-year overhaul of the emissions trading scheme. The approval provides regulatory certainty after months of rulemaking and resubmissions. The changes affect allowance supply, allocation, and market operations going forward in the California-Quebec linked system. Read →

Giuseppe Ciccomascolo · CCN · Thu, Aug 27, 2:42 AM ET

The Hyperliquid Policy Center released research showing on-chain oil perpetuals limited a simulated $10 million hedger's weekend loss from $1.58 million to about $62,000 during the March Iran-related shock. Perpetual prices predicted nearly 75% of Sunday benchmark reopenings across studied weekends. The filing responds to the CFTC's extended comment period on 24/7 futures and perpetuals for physical energy commodities. Read →

Cryptonomist · Tue, Sep 1

Hyperliquid Labs is in advanced talks with Payward (Kraken parent) to route crypto perpetual futures to US traders through Bitnomial, subject to CFTC approval that could take 10 to 12 months. President Trump previously noted CFTC Chair Michael Selig's work to bring Hyperliquid onshore in compliant form. The move would expand access beyond offshore platforms amid broader regulatory efforts to onshore perpetuals. Read →

Industry News

Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Comstock Resources agreed to sell 20% of its Legacy Haynesville upstream assets, 15% of Western Haynesville assets (reverting to 7.5% after five years and 15% ROI) and 15% of Pinnacle Gas Services midstream to SOCAR for $1.65 billion cash. The deal, targeted to close by year-end, cuts pro forma net debt to $1.5 billion from $3.1 billion as of June 30 and gives SOCAR future project participation plus international marketing access for Comstock gas. It underscores foreign capital inflows into U.S. natural gas assets amid strong demand. Read →

Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Shell agreed to buy the remaining 67% stake in U.S. convenience store and fuel distributor Tri Star Energy from Parman Corporation and Kimbro Oil, lifting its ownership to 100% from 33%. The deal adds 320 company-owned fuel and convenience sites in Tennessee and nearby states plus supply agreements for 552 dealer sites, with closure expected by year-end. It advances Shell’s strategy to expand high-margin company-owned retail in key U.S. markets. Read →

Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

DNO agreed to acquire Capricorn Energy for $396 million in cash, offering $5.214 per share and outbidding Genel Energy’s prior $360 million bid. Capricorn’s board withdrew support for Genel and recommends the DNO deal, which gives DNO entry into Egypt alongside its Kurdistan and North Sea operations. Completion is expected in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, subject to approvals. Read →

Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Sasol reported headline earnings per share of R38.31 for the year ended June 30, up 9% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 17% to R60.7 billion. Higher Brent crude prices, 4% volume growth and doubled refining margins drove the fuels segment EBIT above R19.9 billion, while net debt fell 11% to $3.3 billion. The results reflect stronger operational performance at Secunda and Natref despite impairments. Read →

BOE Report / Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

Chesapeake Utilities sold a 49% stake in its $1.2 billion Florida Energy Pathway natural gas transmission project to NextEra Energy Resources, retaining 51% and operational control. The 24-inch intrastate pipeline from Palm Beach to Miami-Dade counties targets nearly 250,000 dekatherms per day of firm commitments, with construction slated for 2028 and service in 2030. The JV addresses South Florida supply constraints and growing demand. Read →

US EPA · Tue, Sep 1, 8:26 PM ET

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called the 1.76B RIN exemptions a 'massive WIN-WIN' for farmers and small refineries. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins praised the 100% reallocation commitment as protecting demand for corn and soybeans. Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden highlighted it as upholding record RVOs while aiding refineries. Read →

Tony Dreibus · Successful Farming / Agriculture.​com · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

November soybeans gained 9.25 cents overnight to $12.97¼/bu, hitting multi-year highs on EPA biofuel exemption news and worsening Corn Belt conditions. Good-to-excellent soybean ratings fell to 58%. Corn and wheat futures also advanced amid export and demand support. Read →

Food Dive · Tue, Sep 1, 2026

President Trump signed a proclamation expanding the tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons over 90 days starting September 1, aiming to ease record-high consumer beef prices. Imports must sell at a 25% discount; the quota opens in monthly tranches. Cattle producers oppose the move, arguing it undermines herd rebuilding efforts. Read →

Social buzz

X / @77SevenBB · Wed, Sep 2

Traders on X highlight fresh US-Iran military actions near the Strait of Hormuz causing Brent to approach $95 and WTI to top $90, a surge of over 5% in a session. Discussions note this reignites supply fears and inflation concerns, pressuring equities while boosting energy stocks like Exxon and Chevron. The move is seen as shifting market focus to geopolitics and higher yields, with implications for broader commodity inflation. Read →

X / @Ole_S_Hansen · Wed, Sep 2

Commodity strategist Ole Hansen notes oil surpassing $95 alongside multi-decade high global bond yields driven by US-Iran escalation. Traders discuss how energy and agriculture sustain inflation pressure while precious metals face headwinds from stronger dollar and rate hike bets. The combination tightens financial conditions and supports energy/defensive sectors in portfolios. Read →

X / @Ole_S_Hansen · Tue, Sep 1

Analysts highlight commodities navigating dual pressures: rising yields and rate expectations hitting gold/silver, while tight supply supports industrial metals and energy/agriculture fuel inflation. Discussions emphasize shallow corrections in gold and ongoing support for copper amid physical tightness. This macro backdrop keeps focus on hard assets for traders. Read →

X / @Ole_S_Hansen · Tue, Sep 1

Market commentary notes gold retracing about 38% of its August rally due to rising yields and stronger dollar, with support eyed around $4,320. Traders discuss potential for renewed buying above the 200-day moving average if the correction stalls. Broader context ties the pullback to oil-driven inflation and Fed policy shifts. Read →

Watch & Listen

Daan Struyven / Goldman Sachs (via Bloomberg/Rigzone) · Mon, Aug 31

Goldman Sachs analysts, including co-head of global commodities research Daan Struyven, highlight that refinery outages are running 60% above seasonal norms with product stockpiles falling despite some demand loss, leading them to more than double forecasts for diesel-making profits (to average $63/bbl in the US and $49/bbl in the EU next year). They warn of a global fuels crisis where product prices far outpace crude gains, set to worsen with Russia’s extended diesel export ban and rising Brazilian demand, requiring full geopolitical de-escalation for recovery in runs. Watch/Listen →

Prediction Markets

Hormuz Crisis

US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.

Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 26% -11pp w/w

Source: Polymarket

Fed Policy

Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.

Fed rate hike in 2026 72% +16pp w/w

Source: Polymarket

Hurricane Season 2026

US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.

Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027 16% unch

Any Cat 5 hurricane US landfall before 2027 13% +2pp w/w

Source: Polymarket

Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.

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