Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · 45 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Tue, Sep 1, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Palladium down $38 (-2.8%), Silver down $1.61 (-2.4%) and Platinum down $26 (-1.4%), all on hawkish Fed signals from Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole lifting rate-hike odds and stronger dollar.
Crude up $2.13 (+2.2%) extending Mondays gains following US-Iran fighting Sunday evening (US preemptively hit an Iranian missile launch facility) and Monday morning (Iran hit an aid base in Jordan). As of now (Tuesday morning) there has been no significant military action since then.
Diesel refining margins continue to move higher as Ukraine hits Russian refineries and mid east refineries constrained due to Hormuz.
Dutch TTF nat gas up $1.51 (+2.2%) on geopolitical risk premium from Middle East tensions and low European storage.
JKM down $0.47 (-2.0%) on easing Asian demand and narrowing JKM-TTF arbitrage.
Kicker: Citi recommends long COMEX palladium flat price on underpriced Section 232 tariff risk for Russian supplies.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Trump’s 65bn-barrel Venezuela oil deal faces investor doubts
The U.S. agreement with Venezuela’s interim government gives Washington a 35% stake in a company led by controversial Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt to develop 17 oilfields holding 65 billion barrels. Analysts warn the deal may struggle to attract major U.S. investment due to political and legal risks and could take a decade to meaningfully boost output. Venezuela currently produces about 1.12 million barrels per day, far below its potential.
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U.S.-Venezuela oil deal uses complex three-layer structure
The U.S.-Venezuela oil pact requires a three-layer structure to develop at least part of 64 billion barrels in 17 oilfields, aiming for up to 1.5 million barrels per day of output. It involves partnership with private business, majority U.S. participation, and long-term ties with operator North American Blue Energy Partners led by Alejandro Betancourt. The deal would secure immediate exportable crude volumes for the U.S. while building on existing PDVSA partnerships.
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U.S.-Venezuela oil deal puzzles experts over legality
Energy experts and lawyers question the legality and execution of the U.S. deal for access to a fifth of Venezuela’s crude reserves, urging contract transparency from both governments. The 25-year pact targets 1.5 million bpd output and $100 billion in investment but faces concerns over opacity and political risks. Trump said the oil would help refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
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Venezuela interim leader: U.S. oil deal lasts 25 years
Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez said the U.S. energy agreement will run for 25 years, target 1.5 million barrels per day output from 17 fields, and generate $209 billion in state revenue. The deal, announced by President Trump, gives the U.S. partial control of over 65 billion barrels of reserves through private partnership. It aims to revive the economy while preserving Venezuelan sovereignty.
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Venezuela oil deal raises red flags for producers
An unprecedented U.S. deal for access to a fifth of Venezuela’s oil reserves and the central role of Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt is prompting hesitation from some major oil companies. Sources say the arrangement raises questions and reluctance among firms evaluating investments. The pact involves North American Blue Energy Partners and aims to boost production significantly.
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Oil
What's moving · US-Iran fighting resumes, lifting Brent to $91.15/bbl on Strait of Hormuz risks.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
87.89 |
+2.5%
+2.13 |
+53.1% |
+34.0% |
+28.1% |
| Brent |
92.26 |
+2.0%
+1.77 |
+51.6% |
+33.4% |
+28.9% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.090 |
+0.4%
+0.013 |
+81.2% |
+51.3% |
+46.4% |
| Heating Oil |
4.461 |
+1.1%
+0.051 |
+110.4% |
+87.9% |
+109.5% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
41.89 |
-3.6%
-1.58 |
+194.9%
+27.68 |
+107.3%
+21.68 |
+108.7%
+21.82 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
99.48 |
+0.0%
-0.01 |
+214.3%
+67.83 |
+191.4%
+65.34 |
+377.7%
+78.65 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
61.09 |
-1.7%
-1.06 |
+205.1%
+41.07 |
+145.8%
+36.24 |
+200.6%
+40.77 |
US-Iran clashes revive Hormuz supply fears, lifting oil prices
Noel John and Sumit Saha ·
Reuters · Tue, Sep 1, 2026, 1:00 AM ET
Brent crude futures rose 66 cents or 0.7% to $91.15 a barrel while WTI gained 70 cents or 0.8% to $86.46 as the first direct US-Iran attacks in a month renewed fears of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessel transits stayed at five per day with no liquid tankers, well below the pre-conflict average, while Trump vowed further strikes. US SPR inventories fell another 3.1 million barrels to 286.6 million, tightening buffers amid stalled mediation by Qatar and Oman.
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US-Iran strikes push Brent above $90 on prolonged Hormuz risks
Brent for November delivery climbed 1.35% to $91.73 a barrel and WTI rose 1.5% to $87.09 in early trade after US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated against targets in Jordan. Analysts note officials on both sides now prepare for months of conflict with no near-term Hormuz reopening, keeping a geopolitical premium in prices despite some continued Gulf exports.
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Brent settles at $90.49 after US-Iran weekend clashes
Brent settled up 2.71% at $90.49 a barrel and WTI gained 2.83% to $85.76 following Sunday's first direct military exchange in roughly a month, with US strikes on Larak Island and Iranian missiles at US bases in Jordan. Trump pledged a hard response, reviving short-term supply risk premium after last week's price retreat on partial Hormuz flow hopes. The move also lifted monthly gains for both benchmarks.
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Brent tops $91 on tanker attack and Hormuz escalation
Brent climbed above $91 a barrel on Tuesday after a tanker was struck by projectiles while exiting the Strait of Hormuz and fresh US-Iran hostilities raised escalation risks. US forces had hit Iranian launchers on Larak Island; Iran responded with attacks including on Jordan bases, with Trump vowing retaliation. Flows remain far below pre-war levels at around 6 million barrels per day per satellite data, pressuring global supply buffers.
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Oil jumps over 2% as US-Iran war flare-up hits markets
Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Monday with Brent rising above $90 a barrel after the US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in a month, reviving supply disruption concerns in the Gulf. The weekend attacks on Larak Island and Jordan bases, plus Trump's hard-response pledge, reversed last week's declines tied to partial Hormuz optimism. Tanker traffic stayed minimal at five vessels daily with no liquid tankers reported.
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US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natural gas futures ease amid rising output, ample storage and new Permian takeaway capacity.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.927 |
-0.3%
-0.008 |
-20.6% |
-2.7% |
-36.6% |
Futures slip as new Texas pipeline adds Permian supply.
James Hyerczyk ·
FXEmpire · Sun, Aug 30, 2026
Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson pipeline begins moving up to 2.2 bcfd of Permian gas starting Sept. 1, easing takeaway constraints. Lower-48 dry gas production runs near 113 bcfd, up 4.5% year-over-year. The added capacity pressures prices despite ongoing heat-driven power demand.
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Futures bounce on extended September heat and LNG flows.
James Hyerczyk ·
FXEmpire · Mon, Aug 31, 2026
Record heat across the southern U.S. lifts power-sector demand, with Lower-48 gas demand hitting 78.4 bcfd. LNG feedgas reached 19.6 bcfd as Freeport LNG returned from maintenance. October futures rose more than 1% intraday despite record production near 115 bcfd.
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Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises to €70/MWh as EU storage lags at 65% amid milder weather and tight LNG supply.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh |
71.32 |
+2.2%
+1.51 |
+153.3% |
+124.5% |
+42.0% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu |
24.25 |
+2.2%
+0.51 |
+153.3% |
+124.5% |
+42.0% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu |
22.70 |
-2.0%
-0.47 |
+136.4% |
+101.9% |
+26.0% |
TTF, UK gas prices drop on warmer weather outlook.
Dutch TTF front-month fell 0.56 euros to 27.77 euros/MWh on Thursday as milder temperatures are forecast for northwest Europe next week, cutting heating demand by 370 GWh/d. Stronger winds are also expected to reduce power-sector gas use. The move highlights weather-driven demand weakness despite broader supply tightness.
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JKM climbs on Mideast shipping disruption fears.
Northeast Asia spot LNG prices hit a four-month high near $22/MMBtu as Houthi and Iran-related attacks raised risks to Strait of Hormuz transit. Analysts revised forecasts for lower Qatari exports and higher JKM averages in H2 2026. The move reflects sustained competition between Asia and Europe for limited cargoes.
Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM data-center demand drives capacity shortfall, backstop auction and bilateral deals amid ERCOT interconnection pause.
Texas data-center pause risks delaying 20% of US pipeline
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered an audit of 474 GW of ERCOT large-load interconnection requests, 90% data centers, pausing Batch Zero study deadlines. BNEF estimates the pause affects nearly 49.8 GW of projects, or about 20% of the US data-center pipeline, with potential revenue losses up to $8 billion by Q1 2027 if extended. The audit examines power sourcing, water use and incentives, delaying new interconnections until verification completes by December.
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ERCOT hits new peak demand record but supply limits growth
Ascend Analytics projects ERCOT peak demand could reach 120 GW by 2030, up >30% from the July 22 record, but far below ERCOT’s own forecasts due to interconnection and generation supply constraints. The large-load queue has grown >200 GW since 2024, driven by data centers and other industrials, with >80% of new loads lacking matching generation by 2030. ERCOT’s energy-only market and rising costs make scarcity pricing alone insufficient to attract needed new capacity.
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Coal
What's moving · China coking coal futures post record 46% August surge on supply crunch from safety checks.
Indonesia launches export platform for coal, palm oil, ferro-alloys on Sep 1
PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) begins operating its export monitoring platform on Sep 1, initially covering coal, palm oil and ferro-alloys worth over US$70 billion annually. The system integrates government data for greater visibility into transactions, targeting issues like under-invoicing and transfer pricing. It marks a phased rollout of tighter oversight on Indonesia’s thermal coal exports, the world’s largest.
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China solar capacity tops coal for first time at 1,286 GW
China’s installed solar capacity reached 1,286 GW by end-July, surpassing coal’s 1,285 GW to become the top power source by capacity. Solar still lags in actual generation, with coal providing nearly half of electricity in H1. The milestone reflects accelerating renewables growth even as thermal coal demand persists for power and industry.
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Agriculture
What's moving · Wheat holds firm on US Plains dryness and Black Sea attacks; soybeans and corn edge lower amid South American crop prospects.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
540 |
+0.3%
+2 |
+22.5% |
+33.9% |
+4.7% |
| Wheat |
785 |
+1.4%
+11 |
+54.7% |
+52.9% |
+11.9% |
| Soybeans |
1,301 |
+1.0%
+13 |
+26.2% |
+26.8% |
+1.8% |
| Sugar |
18.99 |
+0.8%
+0.16 |
+26.5% |
+17.6% |
-3.5% |
| Coffee |
312.4 |
+0.3%
+0.9 |
-10.4% |
-18.3% |
+61.7% |
| Cocoa |
6,714 |
-0.8%
-57 |
+10.7% |
-9.5% |
+162.5% |
| Cotton |
92.64 |
+0.2%
+0.23 |
+44.1% |
+43.5% |
-1.6% |
Wheat firm on US dryness, Ukraine strikes; soy slips on Brazil crop
Chicago wheat futures edged up to hold at a one-week high, supported by dry weather in the US Plains and Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Soybeans inched down 0.1% to $10.65 to 1/2 per bushel as traders weighed Chinese US soy purchases against expectations of a record Brazil harvest; corn also ticked down 0.1%.
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Ivory Coast cocoa main crop delayed 8 to 10 weeks, risking port congestion
Ivory Coast's main 2026/27 cocoa crop is delayed by 8 to 10 weeks due to difficult weather, poor farm maintenance and a strong mid-crop. Weekly arrivals are expected below 15,000 tons in September and 25,000 tons in October, with 900,000 tons forecast for October-December versus 1.1 million tons last year, raising risks of congestion at Abidjan and San Pedro ports ahead of EU deforestation rules.
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US corn at 57% good/excellent, soy at 58% as of Aug 30
As of Aug. 30, US corn conditions held at a season-low 57% good-to-excellent, unchanged from the prior week and 12 points below last year, with 13% of the crop mature. Soybeans slipped 2 points to 58% good-to-excellent while 95% were setting pods and 13% dropping leaves, ahead of average pace.
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Spring wheat harvest at 77% complete, ahead of average
US spring wheat harvest reached 77% complete as of Aug. 30, eight points ahead of last year and nine points above the five-year average. The update came alongside steady corn conditions and slightly weaker soybean ratings in the final August crop progress report.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Zinc surges to 4-year high on LME supply squeeze as Chinese nickel smelters weigh output cuts.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,556 |
-1.3%
-187 |
+17.3% |
+44.5% |
+54.9% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) |
14,367 |
+0.1%
+11 |
+13.1% |
+45.2% |
+50.6% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) |
3,156 |
+0.2%
+6 |
+6.1% |
+23.0% |
+8.8% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) |
3,463 |
+0.2%
+8 |
+15.3% |
+26.0% |
+13.5% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) |
16,747 |
-0.6%
-96 |
-1.1% |
+10.2% |
-18.5% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) |
2,136 |
+0.2%
+5 |
-3.0% |
+2.5% |
+4.8% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) |
55,144 |
-0.6%
-319 |
+31.3% |
+62.6% |
+61.3% |
Zinc hits 4-year high on LME supply squeeze.
LME zinc rose as much as 2.5% to $3,980.50 per ton, its highest level in more than four years. Supply disruptions at mines in China and curtailed Iranian ore shipments from Middle East conflict tightened the market, while LME stocks stayed below 100,000 tons. Smelter treatment charges fell to minus $117.50 per ton, signaling acute concentrate tightness that lifted prices for the fifth straight month.
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Chinese nickel smelters in Indonesia consider output cuts.
Executives from Tsingshan, GEM, Lygend and Huayou Cobalt discussed coordinated cuts at HPAL plants amid weak prices and high costs. One proposal floated a 30% reduction in mixed hydroxide precipitate output, though no agreement was reached. Indonesia supplies over 60% of global nickel, so any cuts would tighten battery-material supply.
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Copper and nickel set for weekly gains on supply worries.
LME three-month copper rebounded 1.20% to $12,873 per ton for a 3.24% weekly gain, while nickel rose 1.87% to $17,475 per ton. Support came from mine disruptions, tight refined availability outside the US and profit-taking after earlier rallies; SHFE copper ended the week up 1.60%.
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SHFE zinc posts best month since January on tightness.
SHFE zinc rose 1.66% to 26,710 yuan per ton, capping a 5.57% August gain. LME stocks down over 20% in two months and negative treatment charges near minus $110 per ton drove the move, with China poised to export more refined metal to ease global tightness.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures retreat on DCE/SGX after four-day rally as investors book profits near $110/t amid China intervention fears.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
95.7 |
-0.1%
-0.1 |
-5.0% |
+0.0% |
-10.3% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
407 |
+1.0%
+4 |
+3.2% |
+4.9% |
-43.6% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
439 |
+0.9%
+4 |
+6.5% |
+6.9% |
-42.0% |
Iron ore futures retreat after four-day rally on profit-taking.
DCE May iron ore contract fell 0.37% to 813 yuan ($116.42/t) after hitting 831.5 yuan, highest since July 2025. SGX February contract dropped 1.05% to $107.90/t after peaking at $109.40. Rally driven by China PBOC easing hopes reversed by fears of Beijing price curbs and steel mills pausing buys; port transaction volume plunged 54.9% Wednesday per Mysteel.
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SGX 62% Fe iron ore settles up $0.05 at $96.05/t.
SGX 62% Fe near-month contract rose 0.05% to $96.05/t on Monday. DCE September delivery gained 1.22% to 748 yuan/t. Gains supported by falling Chinese port inventories (down 1.03% month-on-month to 154.77 Mt) and tightening low-grade shipments amid typhoon disruptions.
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BHP ships Jimblebar fines to Malaysia, Vietnam post-China halt.
BHP redirected Jimblebar Blend Fines cargoes to Malaysia and Vietnam after CMRG halted purchases during contract talks. Lowlands Blue discharged 95kt in Malaysia (first since 2019 tracking); Cape Yamabuki 75kt to Vietnam. Jimblebar inventories at Chinese ports surged 360% to 8.1 Mt by mid-January amid dispute.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold steadies near $4,455/oz as Mideast tensions and Fed rate-hike bets offset ETF demand rebound.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,422 |
-1.3%
-59 |
+2.2% |
+24.6% |
+143.9% |
| Silver |
65.38 |
-2.4%
-1.61 |
-6.8% |
+59.2% |
+170.4% |
| Platinum |
1,769 |
-1.4%
-26 |
-13.1% |
+25.8% |
+76.9% |
| Palladium |
1,340 |
-2.8%
-38 |
-17.8% |
+17.9% |
-45.0% |
Gold, silver ETFs add holdings as sentiment trails price gains.
Gold ETF holdings rose 2.7 moz or 2.8% since July 20 lows to 98.9 moz, tracking a 15% price rebound. Silver ETFs gained 20.4 moz or 2.6% to 801.2 moz amid a 16% rally, though still 7.2% below January levels. Analysts cite Iran conflict, inflation and US debt as likely future drivers.
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Gold slips on oil spike and higher Fed hike odds.
Spot gold edged lower in late US trade as renewed US-Iran escalation lifted oil prices and Treasury yields, pressuring non-yielding metals after Friday's hawkish Fed comments. Silver held modestly higher amid the volatility.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's yttrium export curbs drive ex-China prices up 4,400% to $270/kg amid ongoing licensing choke.
Yttrium shortages intensify as China curbs exports.
Chinese export licensing on yttrium, in force since April 2025, has slashed US shipments to near zero in recent months and cut overall exports 30%. European yttrium dioxide prices have surged 4,400% since January to $270/kg while Chinese domestic prices hover near $7/kg. The shortage threatens aerospace turbine coatings, semiconductors and high-temperature alloys, with stockpiles outside China estimated at one to twelve months of demand.
Read →
Energy Fuels closes ASM acquisition for metals capacity.
Energy Fuels completed the acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials, adding an operating rare earth metals and alloys plant in South Korea plus the Dubbo project. The move strengthens its mine-to-magnet chain with commercial-scale non-Chinese metal production capabilities. It accelerates integration ahead of heavy rare earth oxide output targets at White Mesa Mill in late 2027.
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Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI jumps 79 points to 3,186 on Capesize strength amid ongoing Hormuz tanker risks and Panama restrictions.
Baltic Dry Index falls fourth day on capesize and supramax weakness.
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index dropped 58 points to 1,718 on Thursday. Capesize fell 157 points or 5.5% to 2,721 with daily earnings down $1,416 to $21,179. Supramax lost 17 points to 976 while panamax rose 19 points to 1,336 with earnings up $177 to $12,028. Iron ore futures retreated on China intervention fears near $110/ton.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs hold near €83 as markets await September ETS reform talks amid thin volume.
EUAs edge higher near €83 on thin volume ahead of September reform talks
The Dec-26 EUA futures contract rose above €83 Monday to post a marginal gain from Friday’s settlement despite a volatile morning on low volume. Traders await the restart of EU ETS policy reform discussions next month after the July overhaul proposal. The move keeps prices anchored in their recent range near multi-week highs.
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California finalizes Cap-and-Invest regulatory overhaul
California’s Office of Administrative Law approved the state’s updated Cap-and-Invest regulation on Monday, completing a multi-year overhaul of the emissions trading program. The changes align allowance budgets with long-term climate targets and adjust offset treatment. The finalization removes a key regulatory overhang for the California-Quebec market, where CCAs have traded near $33.
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Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] push CFTC for regulated 24/7 US energy perpetuals on crude oil and natural gas after $500B+ onchain volume.
Dune launches dataset tracking post-issuance RWA activity.
Dune released a new Real-World Assets dataset covering 6,800+ token deployments across 258 issuers and 21 chains. It tracks holders, transfers, trades and synthetic exposure via perpetuals. Early findings show perpetuals on gold and equities traded $103 billion versus $4.1 billion in onchain spot volume over the four weeks to Aug. 24, with RWA perps rising from 0.2% to 51% of Hyperliquid monthly volume in nine months.
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Corporate & Deals
What's moving · ONEOK's $4.43B Permian gas asset buy and SLB's $4.1B Kelvion data-center cooling deal drive midstream and services M&A.
ONEOK buys Brazos Permian gas assets for $4.43B.
ONEOK agreed to acquire Brazos Midstream’s Permian Midland Basin natural gas gathering and processing assets for about $4.43 billion. The deal more than doubles ONEOK’s processing capacity in the region to nearly 2.3 bcf/d once the Cassidy II plant completes. It is funded by a $9 billion Apollo minority equity investment and is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings and free cash flow.
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SLB acquires Kelvion for $4.1B to grow data centers.
SLB will buy thermal management firm Kelvion from Apollo and Triton funds for $3.4 billion cash plus $700 million assumed debt. The deal expands SLB’s data center solutions amid AI-driven cooling demand and is expected to be accretive to EPS and FCF. Combined operations target $4.5 to 5 billion revenue and $700 to 800 million EBITDA by 2028.
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TotalEnergies exits Arctic LNG 2 project.
TotalEnergies completed the transfer of its 10% stake in the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project to NordLine, a Novatek subsidiary. The company retains rights to reimbursement of about $1.3 billion in shareholder loans, subject to sanctions. The exit follows the 2022 impairment and ends TotalEnergies’ ownership in the Russian LNG facility.
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WSJ: ONEOK Permian gas deal backed by Apollo.
ONEOK will acquire Brazos Midstream’s Permian Midland Basin natural gas gathering and processing assets for $4.43 billion. Apollo funds provide a $9 billion nonvoting minority equity stake to fund the purchase and repay about $5 billion of debt. The assets include 700 miles of gathering lines and 1.2 bcf/d processing capacity supported by long-term contracts.
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WSJ: SLB buys Kelvion data-center cooling firm.
SLB agreed to acquire Kelvion, a German thermal management company, for $4.1 billion including debt. The purchase strengthens SLB’s growing data center infrastructure business amid surging AI power and cooling needs. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
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Regulation & Government
What's moving · EPA grants record 1.76 billion biofuel waivers for 2025, nearly double prior estimate, easing refiner costs while planning RVO hikes.
EPA grants record 1.76B biofuel waivers for 2025.
Jarrett Renshaw and Siddharth Cavale ·
Reuters · Mon, Aug 31, 2026
The U.S. EPA granted full or partial small-refinery exemptions totaling 1.76 billion RINs for the 2025 Renewable Fuel Standard year, nearly double its earlier projection of 990 million. Refineries including those owned by Marathon Petroleum and Chevron received relief. The agency will propose reallocating the excess waived volumes into 2026 and 2027 RVOs, shifting obligations to larger refiners.
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EPA grants highest biofuel waivers since 2017.
The Trump administration approved the largest volume of small-refinery biofuel blending exemptions since 2017, covering 1.76 billion RINs. It simultaneously signaled plans to raise future renewable volume obligations to offset the relief and limit damage to corn and soybean demand. The move targets lower gasoline prices amid political pressure ahead of midterms.
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EPA exempts 1.76B RINs in 2025 SRE decisions.
EPA finalized decisions on 34 small-refinery exemption petitions, granting full exemptions to 18 and partial to 11, for a total of 1.76 billion RINs. It will extend the 2025 RVO compliance deadline by 30 days to October 1, 2026, and propose shifting the difference from prior estimates into 2026 to 2027 obligations. The actions follow consultation with the Department of Energy.
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Trump expands beef import quota from Sept. 1.
President Trump signed a proclamation increasing the U.S. tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons for 90 days starting September 1, 2026, administered in 100,000-ton monthly tranches. Imports must sell at a 25% discount and apply only to trimmings for ground beef. The temporary relief addresses record-high domestic beef prices from low cattle supplies.
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Trump expands lean beef trimmings imports.
Leah Douglas ·
Reuters · Wed, Aug 26, 2026
Trump signed a proclamation to temporarily raise the in-quota volume for imported lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons over 90 days from September 1. The measure targets high consumer beef prices caused by a 75-year low in U.S. cattle supplies from drought and wildfires. Farm groups oppose the step, warning it undermines domestic ranchers.
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What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Grains and softs surge as funds pile in amid Black Sea and weather risks
Traders highlight extreme net longs in corn and accelerating agriculture buying per recent COT data, with wheat premiums shifting on Novorossiysk developments. Discussions note multi-year highs in positioning for grains and softs like cocoa, driven by Black Sea export disruptions and West African supply delays. This matters as broad commodity breadth signals potential upcycle start for ag markets.
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Brent rises above $90 as fighting resumes and supply disruption fears grow
Posts discuss escalating US-Iran conflict reviving Strait of Hormuz concerns, pushing Brent up around $1 with WTI following. Traders note implications for global supply and potential inflation pass-through via diesel cracks. This matters for energy markets as geopolitical premiums re-emerge after earlier de-escalation hopes.
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NY cocoa hits new highs as Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana output concerns mount
Market participants cite delayed main crop arrivals in Cote d'Ivoire and reduced Ghana forecasts, with StoneX slashing global surplus estimates sharply. December contracts extended gains amid repricing of supply timing risks. This matters for soft commodities as it adds to broader ag strength and potential price volatility.
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Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Diesel price a colossal problem
Paul Sankey, president of Sankey Research, downplays the immediate market impact of a potential U.S. deal for Venezuelan oil reserves. He stresses that the refining sector's capacity shortage is the core global issue, with diesel prices highlighting acute product tightness amid broader supply-chain strains.
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US gas/diesel prices heading higher
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, flags critically low U.S. product inventories as a driver for higher gasoline and diesel prices. He positions China as the key swing buyer of crude whose demand flexibility is now the dominant variable offsetting or amplifying supply dynamics.
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Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc., the company behind BoxWood. BoxWood is commodity hedge management software for oil and gas producers, fuel consumers, refiners, and trade houses: AI-checked trade confirmations, one-click daily mark-to-market, counterparty reconciliation, settlements, scenario analysis, and automated daily reports for natural gas, NGL, crude, refined-product, and basis hedges.
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