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Friday, November 13, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,626
+0.1%
+10 |
Dollar Index
103.21
+0.04%
+0.04 |
EUR/USD
1.1056
-0.03%
-0.0003 |
US 10Y Yield
5.103
+10 bp
|
Last price as of Fri, Nov 13, 5:35 AM ET. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude is balanced with countdown to the next no moon (dark night for military action Dec 8) offsetting increased physical flows from the Persian Gulf. Brent physical is $1 above (backwardated) futures having been $1 under (contango) earlier this week. So physical is balanced (neither tight or loose). See realtime physical oil prices at WetBarrels.com.
US Nat Gas down $0.073 (-2%) despite record speculator net shorts. Milder weather forecasts weighing on prices this morning.
N-Butane down $0.037 (-2%) on softer crude prices pressuring NGL (LPG) values.
Wheat up $11 (+2%) on Black Sea export disruptions from ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions limiting supply.
Tin up $630 (+1%) on low inventories and rising LME cancelled warrants ratio supporting prices despite macro pressure.
Soybeans up $16 (+1%) on USDA WASDE report cutting US and global ending stocks more than expected.
Kicker: Saxo sees gold sentiment continuing weak with short sellers in control after CPI-driven selloff (Saxo Bank, Fri Nov 13).
US Nat Gas down $0.073 (-2%) despite record speculator net shorts. Milder weather forecasts weighing on prices this morning.
N-Butane down $0.037 (-2%) on softer crude prices pressuring NGL (LPG) values.
Wheat up $11 (+2%) on Black Sea export disruptions from ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions limiting supply.
Tin up $630 (+1%) on low inventories and rising LME cancelled warrants ratio supporting prices despite macro pressure.
Soybeans up $16 (+1%) on USDA WASDE report cutting US and global ending stocks more than expected.
Kicker: Saxo sees gold sentiment continuing weak with short sellers in control after CPI-driven selloff (Saxo Bank, Fri Nov 13).
Drivers and the Kicker house view are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
Street Commodity Views
Saxo Bank (Fri Nov 13) sees Brent rebounding near $96.50 as Iran deal prospects remain elusive.
Standard Chartered (Wed Nov 11) sees gold rallying to average $4,650/oz in Q4 2026 and $4,850 in Q1 2027 on central bank demand and improving flows.
Rory Johnston (Thu Nov 12) sees OPEC+ production back to prewar levels in October though flow remains precarious and choppy.
Dated views from banks and research houses, as published; houses change them without notice. Informational only, not trading advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil rebounds as Trump says no need for Iran deal
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Nov 12, 4:35 PM ET
Oil futures rebounded and closed higher Thursday after President Trump posted that the U.S. doesn’t need a deal with Iran, restoring some risk premium despite rising Middle East supply. WTI settled up 2.6% at $88.74 a barrel and Brent rose 3.3% to $95.82 a barrel, shrugging off bearish U.S. inventory builds. Read →
Trump: No Iran deal needed, focus on U.S. cities
Reuters · Thu, Nov 12, 1:39 PM ET
President Trump said the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran and told Vice President JD Vance to focus on alleged crime and corruption in Democratic-run cities and states. The comments came as Iran reported tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and amid ongoing blockade efforts. Read →
Gold falls third day on stronger dollar, yields
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Nov 12, 11:26 AM ET
Gold futures fell for a third straight session as the dollar gained and yields rose, with markets concerned about higher interest rates and a rebound in oil prices that could fuel inflation. Front-month gold dropped 2.8% to $3,878.40 an ounce, its lowest settlement since Oct. 2, 2025. Read →
Energy markets in weary calm amid Iran standoff
Ron Bousso · Reuters · Thu, Nov 12, 5:24 PM ET
Energy markets have slipped into a weary calm as investors await Donald Trump’s next move in the Iran war, with Brent down about 20% since late October to around $94 a barrel. Gulf producers face higher costs from ongoing disruptions despite no full-scale fighting. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Nat Gas 2NGL/LPG & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 3Coal 1Agriculture 4Fertilizers 1Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 1Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3On-Chain Commodities 1Companies said 6Corporate & Deals 4Regulation & Government 2Social buzz 5Podcasts 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · US crude stocks build 4.7M barrels to 414.4M as Trump signals continued Iran blockade and Houthi tanker attacks persist.
Cash WTI
91.45 -1.03
Cash Brent
94.35 -0.57
Cash Br–TI
2.91 +0.46
Brent DFL
1.23 -0.32
Physical cash prices from WetBarrels.com.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
88.15 | -0.7% -0.59 |
+53.5% | +46.7% | +9.0% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
95.53 | -0.3% -0.29 |
+57.0% | +48.4% | +16.4% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.647 | -0.9% -0.023 |
+53.3% | +29.9% | +12.2% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.300 | +0.3% +0.013 |
+103% | +69.9% | +79.3% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
23.04 | -1.7% -0.40 |
+52.3% +7.91 |
-9.6% -2.45 |
+26.7% +4.85 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
92.43 | +1.2% +1.14 |
+192% +60.78 |
+100% +46.21 |
+366% +72.59 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
46.17 | +0.2% +0.11 |
+124% +25.53 |
+42.5% +13.77 |
+146% +27.43 |
Oil heads for second weekly drop on Trump Iran blockade
Reuters · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
Oil prices mixed Friday but set for a second straight weekly decline as US President Trump signaled he will maintain the Iranian oil blockade and sanctions rather than pursue a new deal. Brent little changed near $95.41 and WTI down 20 cents near $88.52 at the time of the report. The moves follow a volatile week where earlier de-escalation hopes faded amid ongoing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Read →
Iran says four tankers hit by explosions in Hormuz
Reuters · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said four oil tankers were hit by explosions or naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday and Thursday after ignoring warnings and entering restricted areas. Reuters could not immediately verify the claims. The incidents add to recent attacks on shipping despite hopes for de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. Read →
US crude stocks rise 4.7M barrels unexpectedly
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
US commercial crude inventories excluding SPR rose 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million in the week ended Nov. 6, versus expectations for a draw, per EIA data released Thursday. The build ended five straight weeks of declines amid higher imports and lower exports; refinery utilization rose to 95.2%. Stocks remain about 4% below the five-year average. Read →
IEA: Global oil supply surges, market swings to surplus
IEA · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
Global oil supply rose 2.3 mb/d to 105.4 mb/d in October on higher Gulf exports, the IEA said in its November report, narrowing the 2026 output decline and pushing the market toward a 4Q26 surplus. Observed inventories rebounded for the first time since June as on-water stocks hit a multi-month high, while demand remained weighed down by high prices and disruptions. Read →
Charts of the day
| 1 | Saudi Oct 2026 production 10.6M b/d vs quotavia @LSREnergy on X · 117 likesTable shows actual production and supply to market for KSA and peers, highlighting pre-war levels and surplus balance |
| 2 | Drewry World Container Index 4305via @Ole_S_Hansen on X · 73 likes |
| 3 | Europe gas stocks on course to fall critically lowvia @JKempEnergy on X · 57 likes |
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Henry Hub futures fell 2% today on revised milder weather forecasts and ample storage heading into today's EIA report.
Cash Henry Hub
3.078 -0.035
Physical cash price from WetBarrels.com.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
3.267 | -2.2% -0.073 |
-11.4% | -28.4% | -34.9% |
Natgas futures slide 2.1% on milder weather outlook.
Investing.com · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
Natural gas futures fell 2.1% to around $3.27/MMBtu as updated weather models showed a short-lived eastern US cold spell followed by near-normal temperatures. The EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook raised 2026 production estimates to 113 Bcf/d and projected higher end-November storage. Read →
US natgas hits 7-week high above $3.30 on LNG flows.
Trading Economics · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
Prices rose above $3.30/MMBtu, the highest in seven weeks, supported by record LNG export flows averaging 19.3 Bcf/d in November and forecasts for cooler central and eastern US temperatures through Nov 20. Lower 48 production averaged 111.2 Bcf/d so far this month, down from October. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Propane stocks build on Gulf Coast to record levels while Midwest draws to 2013 lows, pressuring Mont Belvieu prices amid strong exports.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.295 | +0.1% +0.000 |
+24.6% | +9.3% | -27.2% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.091 | +0.5% +0.005 |
+76.7% | +69.0% | -17.6% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.707 | -2.1% -0.037 |
+129% | +100% | +10.6% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.734 | +0.2% +0.003 |
+123% | +96.3% | +12.3% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
1.971 | +0.4% +0.008 |
+68.1% | +58.6% | +5.0% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 8 | +1 | +9 | +11 | +1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 79 | +1 | +51 | +56 | -7 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -608 | -10 | -297 | -275 | -159 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -269 | -7 | -96 | -62 | -195 |
| C5 as % WTI | 94 | +1 | +8 | +7 | -4 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Propane piles up on Gulf Coast as Midwest stocks hit 2013 lows
Christine Groenewold · RBN Energy · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
The EIA reported a 91 Mbbl build in U.S. propane/propylene inventories for the week ended Nov 6, versus expectations of a 260 Mbbl draw. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) stocks rose 339 Mbbl to 65 MMbbl, above last year and the five-year maximum, while Midwest (PADD 2) stocks fell 502 Mbbl to their lowest early-November level since 2013. The surprise build stemmed from weaker domestic demand, with exports rising to 2.17 MMb/d. Read →
Enterprise Neches River drives record ethane exports
East Daley Analytics · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
US ethane exports hit a record 580 Mb/d in September per Vortexa data, led by Enterprise Products’ Neches River terminal ramp near Beaumont. Chinese cargoes reached 403 Mb/d or 70% of total. Mont Belvieu ethane prices rose in response to firmer demand from the new terminal and returning buyers. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF surges 10% this week to €94 to 95/MWh on accelerating EU storage withdrawals, cold weather and fading Hormuz de-escalation hopes.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
91.37 | -1.0% -0.89 |
+233% | +200% | +17.2% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
29.61 | -1.0% -0.29 |
+233% | +200% | +17.2% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.37 | +0.1% +0.04 |
+227% | +182% | -0.8% |
EU gas storage · gas day Wed, Nov 11
EU gas storage is 71.3% full, 807 TWh in store, 17.8 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.0 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 57.7%, 30.7 points below its five-year average and 17.0 points below a year ago. LNG terminals are 50.5% full and sent out 4,312 GWh, 10% more than the day before.
EU full 71.3% -0.35 pts d/d | Year ago 82.3% | 5-yr avg 89.0% same date |
Germany 57.7% | Year ago 74.7% | 5-yr avg 88.4% same date |
Source: GIE AGSI+ and ALSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
EU storage at record-low 71.6% entering winter drives TTF higher.
Michael Kern · OilPrice.com · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
EU gas storage stood at 71.6% full on Nov. 11 per GIE data, the lowest seasonal level of the 2020s and well below the five-year average, with Germany at 58%. This thin buffer plus ongoing Hormuz disruptions forces Europe to compete aggressively for LNG cargoes, supporting TTF which rose for a third straight session to €88.42/MWh. Rystad notes price risk runs both ways but low inventories heighten vulnerability to any cold snap or further supply shocks. Read →
Tokyo Gas CEO flags possible further JKM gains this winter.
Monica Germany · World Ports Organization · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Tokyo Gas President Shinichi Sasayama said spot LNG prices above $30 could climb more depending on weather-driven inventory drawdowns and Middle East developments post-US midterms. He noted Asian prices fell Nov. 4 on eased geopolitical premiums but stressed vigilance ahead of peak winter demand. The comments came after a METI meeting on winter supply security amid EU Russian LNG import ban effects. Read →
TTF climbs third straight day on winter supply worries.
Pranav Kashyap · Investing.com · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Front-month TTF rose 2% to €88.42/MWh on Thursday, extending a three-day rally as traders focused on localized European winter supply risks rather than broader geopolitical easing. The move decoupled from softer crude and followed sharp earlier declines tied to de-escalation hopes. Near-term contracts prioritize prompt security amid low storage and seasonal demand. Read →
TTF up 10% this week near €95/MWh on multiple drivers.
X (Bloomberg Intelligence analyst) · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
TTF has risen for a fourth session, up 10% this week near €95/MWh intraday as hopes for quick US-Iran breakthrough fade. Drivers include cold weather, faster storage withdrawals, Norwegian outages and persistent Hormuz risks. HSBC sees storage potentially falling toward 20% by winter-end, leaving Europe exposed to prolonged Middle East disruptions. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · FERC orders PJM and five other US grid operators to reform tariffs for faster data-center and large-load interconnections.
FERC orders six US grid operators to reform tariffs for data centers and large l
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
FERC issued show-cause orders to PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE and NYISO requiring them to justify or change tariffs within 60 days to speed integration of data centers and other large loads while preventing cost shifts to other customers. The orders target co-location with generation, new transmission services for flexible loads, and processes to study electrically proximate generation. This directly addresses surging AI-driven demand that has created capacity shortfalls and interconnection delays across major US power markets. Read →
FERC directs PJM to set new rules for AI data centers co-located with generation
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
FERC found PJM’s tariff unjust and unreasonable for lacking clarity on co-located large loads such as AI data centers and directed the grid operator to offer new Firm and Non-Firm Contract Demand transmission services plus interim non-firm options. PJM must also report by January 19, 2026 on expedited interconnection, reliability backstop changes and improved load forecasting. The reforms aim to unlock faster connections without shifting costs to existing ratepayers amid PJM’s multi-GW capacity shortfalls. Read →
PJM considers ride-through standards after 3.8 GW data-center load tripped offli
Utility Dive · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
PJM is evaluating interconnection reliability requirements including ride-through standards for data centers and crypto facilities following a July 22 event in northern Virginia where 3.8 GW of load tripped offline due to a transmission fault. The incident caused voltage and frequency swings and highlighted sensitivity of hyperscale loads to grid disturbances. Similar smaller events occurred in prior years in the same Dominion zone, prompting PJM to seek NERC-aligned standards to maintain reliability as data-center demand grows. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · European thermal coal indices plunged below $135/t on fading Middle East risk and lower gas prices.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
138.00 | +0.4% +0.60 |
+41.6% | +43.5% | -1.8% |
| Newcastle $/t |
147.00 | +0.3% +0.50 |
+39.0% | +31.8% | -3.3% |
India coal output to hit record 1.09 billion tonnes in 2026
The Hindu Business Line · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
The World Bank projects Indian coal production at a record 1.09 billion tonnes in 2026. Demand is forecast to rise 4.2% to 1.35 billion tonnes, outpacing global growth. Output gains come from captive and commercial mines amid efforts to cut import reliance. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · USDA November WASDE tightens U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks, lifting prices before profit-taking set in.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
447 | +0.9% +4 |
+1.4% | +3.8% | -22.5% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
595 | +1.8% +11 |
+17.3% | +12.8% | -28.0% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,235 | +1.3% +16 |
+19.8% | +10.9% | -1.8% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
18.31 | +0.5% +0.09 |
+22.0% | +22.4% | -7.2% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
278.9 | -0.5% -1.3 |
-20.0% | -30.2% | +25.2% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,052 | -0.3% -14 |
-16.7% | -4.4% | +106% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.93 | +0.3% +0.26 |
+28.2% | +31.9% | -29.9% |
Corn, soybeans face moderate cuts after WASDE rally
Ben Potter · Farm Progress · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
December corn futures fell 5.5 cents to $4.4250 and January soybeans lost ground as technical selling and profit-taking followed Tuesday's USDA WASDE report that cut U.S. corn yield 1.6 bushels per acre and ending stocks 91 million bushels. The moves came despite a smaller-than-expected U.S. crop and tighter soybean stocks at 300 million bushels. Traders await Friday's delayed export sales data amid a firmer dollar. Read →
Private exporters report 136,000 MT soybean sale to China
Farm Progress staff · Farm Progress · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Private exporters notified USDA of a 136,000 metric ton soybean sale for 2026/27 delivery to China, following earlier flash sales of 312,700 MT corn and 150,000 MT soybeans to Mexico. These announcements confirm ongoing demand from key buyers after the WASDE raised U.S. soybean export projections 25 million bushels. Sales provide near-term support for the soybean complex amid harvest wrap-up. Read →
USDA November WASDE tightens corn, soybean, cotton stocks
COT-Trader · Thu, Nov 13, 2026
USDA cut U.S. corn production 141 million bushels to 15.9 billion on a 1.6-bushel yield drop to 179.6 bushels per acre, lowering ending stocks 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion. Soybean ending stocks fell 15 million bushels to 300 million after exports rose 25 million bushels; cotton stocks also tightened while wheat ending stocks edged up 3 million bushels to 743 million. Read →
Brazil Anec lifts November corn, soybean export forecasts
Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Brazil's Anec raised its November corn export forecast to 7.21 million tonnes from 6.02 million the prior week, up 22% year-over-year. Soybean shipments are now seen at 4.37 million tonnes versus 3.33 million previously, while soybean meal exports rose to 2.57 million tonnes. The upward revisions signal strong South American export pace competing with U.S. supplies. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Middle East Hormuz disruptions and sulfur costs drive fertilizer prices higher, pressuring phosphates and nitrogen ahead of planting.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,747 | +0.1% +1 |
-0.1% | +5.4% | -22.8% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
464.50 | +0.4% +2.00 |
+14.0% | +12.7% | -46.2% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
425.25 | -0.1% -0.50 |
+10.0% | +9.6% | -45.6% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
790.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+26.4% | +6.5% | +9.3% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
China urea export halt removes major supplier from markets
Josh Linville · StoneX · Thu, Nov 12, 8:22 AM ET
China, normally exporting 5 to 5.5 million tonnes of urea annually, has halted shipments as its export window closes ahead of northern hemisphere spring, leaving importers like India and Brazil exposed. India's latest tender secured only 410,000 tonnes against a 1.7 million tonne target, with China as a key low-cost supplier. Brazil remains behind on urea imports for the upcoming safrinha season. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China copper import premiums hit records as SHFE stocks crash and LME cash tightens on physical squeeze.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
13,565 | -0.7% -95 |
+9.3% | +21.9% | +39.6% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,372 | +0.5% +73 |
+13.2% | +32.9% | +47.2% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,050 | -0.1% -3 |
+2.5% | +14.3% | +9.7% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,349 | -0.5% -16 |
+11.5% | +20.0% | +0.3% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,206 | -0.1% -21 |
-4.3% | +8.1% | -19.2% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,108 | +0.0% +1 |
-4.3% | -2.4% | -3.2% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
47,533 | +1.3% +630 |
+13.2% | +34.1% | +21.0% |
Yangshan copper premiums hit fresh records as SHFE rollover nears.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
On Nov 13, SMM reported Yangshan warrant premiums averaged $285/mt (up $45/mt), B/L premiums $265/mt (up $35/mt), with EQ copper at $138/mt. SHFE/LME price ratio surged ahead of contract rollover, driving record imported copper premiums amid low domestic stocks and wide futures spreads. The squeeze tightens physical availability for China's top consumer despite subdued demand signals. Read →
Tin rebounds on record-low LME stocks and rising cancelled warrants.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
SMM #1 tin averaged 359,300 yuan/mt, up 1.21% on the day, with LME three-month tin at $47,029/mt. LME tin stocks held at 3,790 mt (year-to-date lows) while cancelled warrants rose to 740 mt (19.53% ratio, nearly double prior week). SHFE warrants at 1,646 mt and Chinese social inventory continued five-week destocking, supporting prices amid expected November production rise. Read →
LME aluminum faces historic squeeze as inventories plunge 56% YTD.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
LME aluminum inventories fell to 226,700 mt (down 56% YTD) with cash-three-month premiums surging to $147/mt (30-year high) and Tom/next spreads hitting $31.73/mt. SHFE aluminum processing PMI dropped to 48.9% in October as peak season ended; operating rates eased to 61.8% amid environmental controls. Nearby contract squeeze and low Chinese stocks offset macro headwinds and distant surplus expectations. Read →
LME aluminum backwardation deepens ahead of November expiry.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
LME aluminum closed at $3,025/mt after volatility, with inventories at multi-year lows and four undisclosed bulls holding over 25% of November open interest. SHFE aluminum edged down 0.13% to 22,620 yuan/mt amid thin trading. Spot premiums in China stayed elevated (340 to 400 yuan/mt vs December contract) as destocking continued, highlighting physical tightness despite softer futures sentiment. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Port stocks hit 152 Mt as hot-metal output falls and pollution curbs tighten, pressuring iron ore near $92.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
88.8 | -0.3% -0.2 |
-11.8% | -9.5% | +2.4% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
398 | -0.0% -0 |
+1.0% | +3.7% | -37.3% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
413 | -0.4% -2 |
+0.3% | +0.8% | -39.3% |
SMM: ferrous metals face pullback on weak supply-demand, lower costs
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Nov 13, 4:39 PM ET
SMM reports ferrous futures drifted lower this week after pollution-driven blast-furnace shutdowns in Handan and tighter north China curbs cut hot-metal output. The third round of coke price cuts took effect, shifting cost support lower while mill production of the five major steel products fell 32,500 mt month-on-month. Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices consolidated with limited downside as south China demand held but north China projects stalled seasonally. Read →
SMM: 35-port iron ore stocks reach 152.12 Mt, pick-up falls
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Nov 13, 10:41 AM ET
SMM data show 35-port imported iron ore inventories rose to 152.12 million tonnes on November 13, up 2.99 million tonnes month-on-month, with daily average pick-up volume down 40,000 tonnes to 3.08 million tonnes. Arrivals surged in concentrated waves while hot-metal output pulled back on environmental restrictions and year-end maintenance, slowing mill offtake. Next week arrivals are expected to ease but pick-up is likely to decline further, pointing to modest inventory draw at best. Read →
Kalkine: Fortescue-CMRG talks drag as BHP, Rio seal deals
Ankur Sharma · Kalkine · Thu, Nov 12, 12:40 AM ET
Iron ore CFR Tianjin quoted at $92.15 per tonne on November 11, down 0.42%, near the SGX December contract at $92.50. CMRG concluded one-year deals with BHP (to June 2027, yuan pricing) and Rio Tinto (to May 2028), while Fortescue talks continue with September-quarter sales lagging shipments by 3.9 million tonnes. Hot-metal output fell to 2.31 million tonnes daily as of November 5, the fourth straight weekly drop, amid Hebei pollution curbs from November 9 and widening rebar losses to 130.61 yuan per tonne. Read →
SMM: China Oct iron ore imports fall 3.79% MoM to 105.66 Mt
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Nov 13, 11:00 AM ET
China imported 105.658 million tonnes of iron ore in October, down 3.79% month-on-month and 4.96% year-on-year per GACC data. Australian shipments rose 20.04% MoM while Brazilian rose 31.92% MoM; port inventories reached 152.12 million tonnes by November 13, up 4.07 million tonnes from end-October. November arrivals are recovering after October's 132.43 million tonnes, but seasonal construction steel weakness and rising stocks keep supply-demand loose. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold rebounds 1% on bargain hunting after hitting 1-year low on Fed rate-hike fears and oil spike.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
3,902 | +0.4% +17 |
-10.1% | -4.7% | +109% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
49.97 | -0.2% -0.09 |
-28.8% | -1.2% | +99.0% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,515 | -0.3% -5 |
-25.5% | -2.6% | +38.3% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
999 | +0.8% +8 |
-38.7% | -29.7% | -53.6% |
Gold rebounds 1% on bargain hunting after 1-year low
Reuters · Fri, Nov 13, 2026
Spot gold climbed 1% to $3,915.31/oz after Thursday's drop to a more than one-year low. Silver rose 1% to $50.49/oz and palladium 2.1% to $1,014.50/oz. Traders await US PPI data at 1:30 p.m. ET as weekly losses reach 3.5% amid higher yields and dollar strength. Read →
Gold hits 1-year low as dollar and yields surge
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Front-month Comex gold settled at $3,878.40/oz, down 2.85%, its lowest close since Oct. 2, 2025. Silver fell 3.7% to $49.972/oz. Hotter US CPI and rebounding oil prices on Middle East tensions lifted rate-hike odds and the dollar. Read →
Tether Gold passes KPMG audit confirming physical backing
Kitco News · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
KPMG issued an unqualified opinion on TG Commodities' 2025 statements after physically counting every bar. XAUT was backed by 520,089.35 ounces valued at $2.246 billion as of Dec. 31, 2025, held in Swiss vaults. The audit is Tether's second Big Four review after USDT. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China extends rare earth export-control pause to Jan. 10, 2027, while India bans black-mass exports and Western producers advance non-Chinese supply.
India bans lithium-ion battery black mass exports.
Reuters · Tue, Nov 11, 2026
India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade changed the export status of lithium-ion battery black mass (ITC HS 85491400) from “free” to “prohibited” with immediate effect via Notification No. 49/2026 to 27. The ban aims to retain lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese feedstock for domestic recyclers and complement a ₹1,500 crore incentive scheme to expand recycling capacity. It supports India’s push to cut import dependence on critical battery minerals amid rapid EV growth. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index hits 3,020, up 2.1% for seventh straight day on broad vessel gains.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.37M | -3.0% | +1180% | 227.2 | 31.00 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$239k | -42.8% | +198% | 71.4 | 9.74 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$116k | -49.6% | +85.9% | 73.8 | 10.07 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$308k | +1.4% | +879% | 200.7 | 26.94 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$227k | +1.9% | +857% | 212.6 | 23.89 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$71k | -16.5% | +241% | 97.8 | 11.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$72k | -5.0% | +242% | 98.8 | 13.26 |
Report of Nov 5, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; the WetBarrels.com history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: WetBarrels.com.
Baltic Dry Index climbs to 3,020 on broad gains
Vishak Mathew · Reuters · Thu, Nov 12, 5:55 PM ET
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry-bulk index rose 61 points or 2.1% to 3,020 on Nov 12, its highest since Oct 5 and seventh consecutive advance. Capesize rates led with a 2.9% jump to 4,836 and daily earnings up $1,232 to $40,357; Panamax and Supramax also gained. Iron-ore and coal cargoes benefit as larger-vessel strength signals firmer near-term demand for raw materials. Read →
Hapag-Lloyd lifts 2026 outlook on freight rates
Amir Orusov · Reuters · Wed, Nov 11, 9:46 AM ET
Hapag-Lloyd raised full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance to $4.6 to 5.0 billion and EBIT to $2.0 to 2.4 billion, the third upgrade this year, citing robust spot rates and stronger Q4 trading. Q3 group profit reached $999 million versus $172 million a year earlier on average freight rates of $1,808 per TEU. Port congestion in Asia and Middle East disruptions continue to support elevated container pricing. Read →
LNG tanker hits mine in Strait of Hormuz
Yasmine Ghania · Reuters · Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 AM ET
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported an LNG tanker struck a naval mine and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday while using an unauthorised route. Four oil tankers were similarly hit by explosions earlier in the week. The incidents heighten risks for crude, product and gas carrier transits through the chokepoint that handles a large share of global energy flows. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs climb back above €90 on colder weather and energy strength while CCAs hit upper $33s ahead of Q4 auction.
EU lawmakers agree extra 120M+ free ETS allowances for fallback industries to 20
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
The European Parliament and Council reached a provisional agreement late Thursday to expand free EU ETS allowances for industries under the heat and fuel 'fallback' benchmarks by more than 120 million allowances through 2030. This adds to the Commission's 88 million and uses withheld allowances to ease carbon leakage risks for energy-intensive sectors like chemicals and ceramics. The move provides direct relief on compliance costs ahead of the ongoing ETS review. Read →
CCAs rise to upper $33s on record weekly volume ahead of Q4 auction
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
California Carbon Allowances advanced into the upper $33 range with the largest weekly trade volume of 2026 so far, as participants position ahead of next week's Q4 joint auction. Washington Carbon Allowances briefly exceeded $42 before retreating below it. The activity reflects tightening supply expectations and strong compliance buying in the linked WCI market. Read →
EU ETS architect Delbeke says €100/mt is political ceiling for carbon price
Nia Simeonova · OPIS, A Dow Jones Company · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Jos Delbeke, key architect of the EU ETS, told OPIS at COP31 that prices up to €100/mt remain acceptable but higher levels risk eroding political support. Current December 2026 EUAs sit near €90.10/mt after recent gains, with prices near a 10-month high of €90.525/mt on Nov. 4. Delbeke also voiced reservations about a proposed European Central Carbon Bank and stressed managing liquidity via the LRF, MSR, and Article 29a in the ongoing review. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC guidance lets commodities firms invest customer funds in tokenized assets and use blockchain for records.
World Gold Council unveils Gold as a Service framework for tokenized gold
The Markets Cafe · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
The World Gold Council published a white paper outlining “Gold as a Service,” a proposed shared infrastructure platform linking physical gold custody, vaulting, and assurance with digital issuance, transfers, and redemption for tokenized products. The open model aims to standardize processes, improve fungibility and interoperability, and lower barriers for issuers such as banks and fintechs without requiring each to build its own stack. Tokenized commodities including gold represent roughly $5.5 billion or 20% of total on-chain RWA value per RWA.xyz. Read →
Industry News
What the companies said
From the companies' own call transcripts and prepared remarks, verbatim. Markets, never the stock.
Nutrien: Ken Seitz, President and CEO
Global potash shipments 2027 · Q3 2026 earnings call, Nov 5
“We expect continued global potash demand growth in line with historical consumption trends, and forecast global potash shipments of 75 to 79 million tonnes in 2027.” Read →
Archer-Daniels-Midland: Monish Patolawala, CFO
North America biodiesel margins, RVO, energy prices · Q3 2026 earnings call, Nov 3
“The year-over-year increase was largely attributable to favorable North American biodiesel margins driven by higher domestic demand resulting from the RVO policy finalization, combined with higher global energy prices.” Read →
Vale: Rogério Nogueira, Acting EVP, Iron Ore Solutions
Silica penalties · Q3 2026 earnings call, Oct 30
“Just to give an example, as of today, we have very high silica penalties at US$4.7 per ton for each percentage point of silica.” Read →
Exxon Mobil: Darren Woods, Chairman and CEO
Middle East product exports · Q3 2026 earnings call, Oct 30
“Right now, I'd say a third of the shortage out there roughly is just the inability to get clean products out of the Middle East and onto the world markets.” Read →
BP: Kate Thomson, CFO
Freight rates and tanker markets · Q3 2026 earnings call, Oct 30
“We have seen elevated freight rates since the beginning of March, particularly they’re sustaining in the crude area, the product tanker rates are a little bit more muted, and as we observe LNG tankers are pretty much back to pre-conflict level.” Read →
Devon Energy: Clay M. Gaspar, President, CEO & Director
Permian gas production limits · Q3 2026 earnings call, Nov 6
“We are limiting our gas production. For much of the last couple of years, we've tried to really limit our amount of gas production, and every quarter, it continues to increase.” Read →
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil and gas midstream and LNG earnings plus oil-sands consolidation drive corporate news amid tight compression and refining margins.
TXO lifts 2026 capex guidance to $90 to 95 million on Williston drilling
Shale Experts · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
TXO Partners raised its full-year 2026 drilling, completion, recompletion and facilities spending guidance to $90 to 95 million from the prior $80 million target. The company had already spent $79.2 million through September, with most discretionary capital directed to the Williston Basin where laterals are lengthening and average well rates exceed 1,000 BOE/d. Higher oil prices and strong results support the increased budget while the firm winds down its Cross Timbers joint venture. Read →
Archrock posts record bookings, reaffirms 2026 EBITDA guidance
Shale Experts · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Archrock reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $228.4 million, up 3.4% year-over-year, with operating horsepower at 4.54 million and spot utilization at 94.3%. The company achieved its strongest bookings quarter since Q2 2023, driven by Permian demand from rising gas-to-oil ratios and takeaway capacity, and reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $865 to 885 million. It separately agreed to acquire microgrid operator HiVolt Energy for $415 million plus earnouts. Read →
Flex LNG posts record Q3 revenue of $97.4 million, holds dividend
Baird Maritime / Company Release · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
Flex LNG reported record third-quarter vessel operating revenue of $97.4 million, down from $106.8 million in Q2 but the highest for any third quarter, with average TCE of $78,875 per day. Net income was $42.8 million and adjusted EBITDA $72.1 million; the company maintained its quarterly dividend at $75 cents per share and its full-year guidance while completing lease amendments and a sale-leaseback to lower its cost of debt. Spot market conditions are expected to remain muted but volatile through year-end. Read →
Citgo profit jumps to $2.2 billion on stronger refining margins
Oil & Gas 360 · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
Citgo Petroleum reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $2.2 billion, up sharply from $167 million a year earlier, driven by stronger refining margins, higher processing volumes and improved operations across its U.S. refining network. EBITDA also rose significantly as the refiner benefited from elevated fuel margins amid supply disruptions. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US-China trade truce extended two months with rare earth export controls paused to Jan 10, 2027.
FERC sunsets 53 outdated energy regulations.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission · Wed, Nov 12
FERC issued a direct final rule and NOPR to sunset 53 outdated regulations one year after the effective date in response to the Trump executive order on zero-based regulatory budgeting. The action targets rules no longer aligned with the Commission’s mission of reliable, safe and efficient energy markets. It aims to reduce regulatory burden on energy producers and infrastructure. Read →
US and China extend trade war truce by two months.
Supply Chain Dive · Tue, Nov 12
The US and China formally extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027, keeping reduced tariffs, suspended port fees and paused export controls in place. USTR extended 178 Section 301 exclusions for Chinese goods. China confirmed it will monitor US actions and adjust countermeasures as needed while urging reciprocal tariff cuts. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
IEA flips to Q4 surplus forecast as crude supplies jump
X / multiple traders · Fri, Nov 13
FinSquawk and other #OOTT accounts highlight the IEA's November report shifting its Q4 outlook from deficit to a 1.7 million bpd surplus, driven by rising crude supplies and Russian output up 210k bpd. Traders note persistent product-market tightness in the Gulf despite the crude build. The reversal pressures near-term price expectations for Brent and WTI. Read →
Platts to launch daily UAE crude price assessments Dec 1
X / @staunovo · Fri, Nov 13
Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo flags S&P Global Platts' plan to start daily FOB ship-to-ship price assessments for Abu Dhabi's Upper Zakum, Umm Lulu and Das Blend crudes from December 1. #OOTT traders see it as a liquidity boost for Gulf grades amid shifting export routes. The move could tighten benchmark relevance for regional trading desks. Read →
Urals discount hits widest since April 2023
X / multiple traders · Fri, Nov 13
Newsbase and #OOTT accounts report Russia's Urals discount expanding sharply as Gulf crudes regain market share. Traders link the widening to recovering Middle East flows and Russian export dynamics. The development signals renewed competition for Asian buyers and potential margin pressure on Russian barrels. Read →
IEA highlights crude glut vs product tightness
X / @Jamie__Ingram · Fri, Nov 13
Jamie Ingram cites the latest IEA report underscoring a two-track market: crude supplies rose last month while Gulf product exports remain roughly half pre-conflict levels. #OOTT traders discuss how this sustains refining margins even as upstream balances loosen. The split keeps product cracks supported amid overall surplus signals. Read →
Gold plunges to over one-year low at $3,876
X / multiple traders · Fri, Nov 13
Traders on X note gold's sharp 2.8% drop to $3,876, its weakest close in more than a year, amid a firmer dollar and rising Fed hike expectations. Accounts tracking metals highlight the move as a reversal from recent haven buying. The sell-off pressures gold positioning ahead of US inflation data. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
StoneX on post-WASDE grain markets
Markets traded mixed after the WASDE report with soybean and corn rallying on Tuesday. Watch/Listen →
IEA: Gulf exports lift Q4 supply
IEA Oil Market Report (via WSJ / Bloomberg) · Fri, Nov 13
Global oil supply rose 2.3 mb/d in October to 105.4 mb/d, pushing Q4 into surplus for the first time since the Iran war. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces the end of the Iran blockade by March 31, 2027
60%
-10pp w/w
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
6%
-4pp w/w
WTI tops its $147 record by March 31, 2027
14%
-6pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire agreement would open the way to sanctions relief on Russian crude, diesel and pipeline gas, bearish for Brent, European diesel cracks and TTF. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027
36%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
9%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
89%
+20pp w/w
US recession by end of 2027
28%
-3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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