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Thursday, November 12, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,617
-0.3%
-23 |
Dollar Index
102.84
-0.07%
-0.07 |
EUR/USD
1.1101
+0.10%
+0.0011 |
US 10Y Yield
4.983
–
|
Last price as of Thu, Nov 12, 5:35 AM ET. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude range bound for a second day. US EIA weekly inventories out later this Thursday morning (one day later than usual due to Veterans Day). US Witkoff and Kushner arrived in Moscow this morning to talk Ukraine and Iran.
US carriers Bush and Washington are in place off Iran. With the arrival of Roosevelt in a week, three US carriers and two amphibious ready groups could be positioned around Iran by the end of November. Roosevelt is expected to relieve Washington rather than permanently add a third carrier.
The next new moon (dark night for military action) is Tuesday, December 8, 2026. The weekend Dec 5th and 6th is the one to watch.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $3.14 (+4%) on near-term supply anxiety persisting amid localized winter risks.
Newcastle coal up $4.05 (+3%) on winter demand and supply constraints tightening Asian markets.
US Nat Gas up $0.091 (+3%) on colder weather outlook and short-covering.
Propane up $0.026 (+2%).
Palladium down $24 (-2%) on subdued demand outlook and stronger dollar.
Kicker: ING remains constructive on gold over the longer term on central bank buying and safe-haven demand (ING, Nov 12).
US carriers Bush and Washington are in place off Iran. With the arrival of Roosevelt in a week, three US carriers and two amphibious ready groups could be positioned around Iran by the end of November. Roosevelt is expected to relieve Washington rather than permanently add a third carrier.
The next new moon (dark night for military action) is Tuesday, December 8, 2026. The weekend Dec 5th and 6th is the one to watch.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $3.14 (+4%) on near-term supply anxiety persisting amid localized winter risks.
Newcastle coal up $4.05 (+3%) on winter demand and supply constraints tightening Asian markets.
US Nat Gas up $0.091 (+3%) on colder weather outlook and short-covering.
Propane up $0.026 (+2%).
Palladium down $24 (-2%) on subdued demand outlook and stronger dollar.
Kicker: ING remains constructive on gold over the longer term on central bank buying and safe-haven demand (ING, Nov 12).
Drivers and the Kicker house view are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
The Street
Saxo Bank (Nov 11) sees gold rebounding after selloff with support near $4,000 as energy prices may ease inflation and Fed expectations.
Anas Alhajji (Nov 11) sees sharp rise in Saudi production and exports in October contradicting exaggerated reports of attacks.
ING (Nov 10) sees oil prices sensitive to Middle East developments after geopolitical premium unwinds.
Dated views from banks and research houses, as published; houses change them without notice. Informational only, not trading advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil rebounds as Hormuz strikes renew supply risks
Farhan Rafid and Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Brent crude settled up 1.4% at $92.76 a barrel and WTI gained 0.6% to $86.53 after renewed U.S. strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island missile facilities. The gains followed a sharp selloff as traders weighed persistent shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz against hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Read →
Oil rises as Hormuz risks offset output recovery
Reuters · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Brent futures rose 0.49% to $93.21 a barrel and WTI climbed 0.31% to $86.80 after early losses, as persistent Middle East tensions capped downside from rising OPEC+ output and U.S. stock builds. Iranian officials said the country will not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave, reinforcing supply worries. Read →
Oil steadies amid stalled Iran talks and muted hostilities
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
WTI traded near $86 a barrel and Brent settled below $93 after a Wednesday rebound, with no clear progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks. An Iranian security official said the country will not remove “a single atom” of enriched nuclear material, keeping geopolitical risk premium in focus. Read →
U.S. gas settles lower, ends three-session win streak
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Nymex natural gas futures fell 2.5% to $3.215/mmBtu, snapping a three-day rally driven by cooler weather forecasts. Analysts said the market had gotten ahead of itself given limited additional support from near-term temperature outlooks. Read →
Saudi oil output nears prewar levels despite attacks
Financial Times · Tue, Nov 11, 2026
Saudi Arabia’s oil production has rebounded to levels higher than the pre-Iran conflict average as the kingdom maintains exports amid ongoing attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the region. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 3US Nat Gas 2NGL/LPG & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 2Coal 2Agriculture 4Fertilizers 3Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 1Shipping & Freight 3Environment 2On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Podcasts 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Oil prices swing on Iran diplomacy hopes, Saudi output surge and US stock build.
Cash WTI
89.42 -0.43
Cash Brent
89.37 -0.83
Cash Br–TI
-0.05 -0.40
Brent DFL
-0.87 -0.09
Physical cash prices from WetBarrel.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
85.81 | -0.8% -0.72 |
+49.4% | +46.2% | +6.2% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
91.99 | -0.8% -0.77 |
+51.2% | +46.0% | +12.0% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.606 | -0.1% -0.002 |
+52.8% | +33.0% | +12.7% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.211 | -0.0% -0.001 |
+98.6% | +70.8% | +75.2% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
23.63 | +2.8% +0.65 |
+66.4% +9.43 |
+0.1% +0.02 |
+45.1% +7.34 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
91.03 | +0.8% +0.69 |
+188% +59.39 |
+103% +46.20 |
+351% +70.87 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
46.10 | +1.5% +0.66 |
+130% +26.08 |
+50.2% +15.41 |
+162% +28.52 |
Oil falls as Vance weighs Iran talks
Farhan Rafid · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 AM ET
Front-month Brent fell 1% to $91.79/bbl and WTI to $85.69/bbl Thursday as traders weighed prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations led by JD Vance. Tehran’s refusal to ship enriched uranium and shipping threats in the Strait of Hormuz limited the downside. The moves extend a sharp November decline tied to de-escalation hopes. Read →
Saudi output jumps 26% to war-time high
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 11, 4:06 PM ET
Saudi Arabia reported October production of 10.56 million b/d to OPEC, up 26% from September and near pre-conflict February levels. The surge, alongside higher Iraqi and Kuwaiti flows, pushed OPEC+ output to 97% of pre-war rates despite Hormuz disruptions. Rising Gulf supply is weighing on prices amid recovering exports via alternative routes. Read →
OPEC+ nears pre-war output levels
Reuters · Wed, Nov 11, 1:22 PM ET
OPEC+ pumped 41.23 million b/d in October, up 2.04 million b/d from September and 97% of February’s pre-war rate per the group’s report. Saudi output hit 10.563 million b/d; Russia added 41,000 b/d. OPEC left its 2026 to 27 demand forecasts unchanged at 2.55 million b/d growth for 2027. Read →
Charts of the day
| 1 | Iraq production Oct 2026 chartvia @LSREnergy on X · 48 likesBar chart showing Iraq crude production highest since 2022, up 496 KBPD month-over-month in October despite no bypass pipeline |
| 2 | Primary energy lost as heat COP31via @JavierBlas on X · 203 likes |
| 3 | US corn ending stocks Nov 2026via @kannbwx on X · 103 likes |
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · LNG feedgas near 19 Bcf/d and early cold lift Henry Hub futures toward eight-month highs despite storage surplus.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
3.306 | +2.8% +0.091 |
-10.3% | -28.8% | -31.0% |
Appalachia, Haynesville output falls 2.5 Bcf/d in early November.
Enercast Pipeline News · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Pipeline receipts fell 3.26 Bcf/d on November 1 to average 66.75 Bcf/d early in the month, the largest one-day drop in three years. Appalachia dropped 1.71 Bcf/d and Haynesville/East Texas 0.76 Bcf/d, accounting for nearly all the decline, while Permian stayed flat. The step-down aligns with EQT's strategic curtailments and pipeline operational flow orders at the month turn, tightening near-term supply. Read →
Futures ease on storage draw and ample inventories.
World Energy News · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Front-month futures fell 0.8% to $4.513/MMBtu as EIA reported a 14 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ended November 14, the first this winter. Inventories stood at 3,946 Bcf, 3.8% above the five-year average. Near-record LNG flows and colder forecasts provided support but ample stocks capped gains. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Propane jumps 2.5% to 108.6¢/gal at Mont Belvieu on surging export demand and winter stock draws.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.295 | +0.8% +0.003 |
+24.5% | +10.6% | -27.2% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.086 | +2.5% +0.026 |
+75.9% | +67.0% | -18.0% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.745 | -1.9% -0.033 |
+134% | +103% | +13.0% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.731 | -2.0% -0.035 |
+123% | +94.5% | +12.1% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
1.963 | +0.6% +0.011 |
+67.5% | +58.6% | +4.6% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 8 | unch | +8 | +12 | -1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 78 | +2 | +50 | +56 | -10 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -598 | -9 | -294 | -271 | -158 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -262 | +3 | -94 | -66 | -197 |
| C5 as % WTI | 96 | +1 | +10 | +8 | -2 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
LPG prices hit multiyear highs on demand
World Ports Organization · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
S&P Global Platts assessed US Gulf Coast propane at multiyear highs in late October, with Mont Belvieu-to-crude ratios at 46 to 47%. Exports held above 2 MMb/d for four weeks, driving inventories lower and lifting butane prices too. Strong Far East and domestic demand underpin the gains. Read →
NGL rally lifts frac spread 35% in Oct
Christine Groenewold · RBN Energy · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Surging NGL prices lifted the frac spread 35% in October before a pullback in early November. RBN's MB-CW spreads show propane at +8.94 cpg (up 1.63) and ethane at +13.94 cpg (down 0.44) as of Nov 11 update. The move reflects export strength and winter prep amid recent price gains. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF surges 4% intraday to €90/MWh as EU storage hits record-low 71.6% with accelerating withdrawals.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
89.80 | +3.6% +3.14 |
+219% | +195% | +18.8% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
29.21 | +3.6% +1.02 |
+219% | +195% | +18.8% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.33 | -0.0% -0.01 |
+226% | +181% | -0.8% |
EU gas storage · gas day Tue, Nov 10
EU gas storage is 71.6% full, 811 TWh in store, 17.5 points below the five-year average for this date and 10.8 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 58.0%, 30.5 points below its five-year average and 16.6 points below a year ago. LNG terminals are 46.5% full and sent out 3,917 GWh, 4% less than the day before.
EU full 71.6% -0.39 pts d/d | Year ago 82.4% | 5-yr avg 89.1% same date |
Germany 58.0% | Year ago 74.7% | 5-yr avg 88.5% same date |
Source: GIE AGSI+ and ALSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF jumps to €90.49/MWh on storage drawdown
OilPriceAPI · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
Dutch TTF benchmark rose sharply to €90.49/MWh (around $29.25/MMBtu) as of Nov 12 morning, up from prior session levels near €86 to 87. This follows EU storage at 71.6% full (811 TWh) with net withdrawals of 4 TWh/day, well below seasonal norms and the lowest for the date in over a decade. Low inventories and faster drawdowns tighten European balances, supporting prices amid LNG competition. Read →
JKM holds near $31.33/MMBtu with TTF arb premium
OilPriceAPI · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
JKM spot benchmark assessed at $31.33/MMBtu, little changed on the day and near the upper end of its 2026 range. The JKM-TTF spread shows Asia at a premium (around $3 to 5/MMBtu equivalent), signaling potential cargo diversions away from Europe. Persistent global tightness from Middle East supply issues and Asian winter demand keep JKM elevated despite some moderation. Read →
JKM at $31.33/MMBtu with $3.59 premium over TTF
EnergyRiskIQ · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
JKM stands at $31.33/MMBtu with a $3.59/MMBtu premium to TTF equivalent, directing Atlantic cargoes toward Asia. EU storage at 71.6% (below 90% norm) heightens Europe's reliance on LNG imports, intensifying competition for flexible volumes. This arb dynamic and low inventories underpin elevated benchmark levels heading into winter. Read →
TTF climbs 3.65% to 90.35 EUR/MWh today
Tindex · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
TTF traded up to 90.35 EUR/MWh intraday, gaining 3.65% with a session range of 86.34 to 90.35. The move aligns with ongoing storage withdrawals and seasonal demand pressures across northwest Europe. Recent price action reflects tighter physical balances as inventories fall faster than expected. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM interconnection delays and FERC rejections on large-load rules sustain capacity tightness amid data-center demand surge.
FERC rejects most of PJM large-load interconnection plan
Diana DiGangi · Utility Dive · Tue, Nov 11, 2026
FERC largely rejected PJM's Interim Resource Adequacy Service framework for connecting data centers without matching new capacity, citing state jurisdiction over retail rates and potential discrimination. It approved only the large-load definition and registry but rejected curtailment and compensation rules, pushing decisions to states. The ruling extends uncertainty and supports higher capacity prices longer in PJM, benefiting generators while data-center growth drives the shortfall. Read →
French day-ahead power averages 207 €/MWh on Nov 12
Selectra · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
France's EPEX day-ahead average settled at 207 €/MWh for Nov 12, the month's lowest, with hourly prices ranging 156 to 258 €/MWh and no negatives. Germany averaged 199 €/MWh and Nord Pool zones showed wide spreads from 18 €/MWh in NO4 to over 200 €/MWh in Baltic/Lithuania zones. Milder conditions eased pressure versus prior days but maintained elevated European spot levels. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China port thermal coal edges up 1 yuan/t amid stalled rally and weak utility demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
136.50 | +0.3% +0.35 |
+40.1% | +42.7% | -2.8% |
| Newcastle $/t |
146.00 | +2.9% +4.05 |
+38.1% | +30.4% | -3.9% |
China port thermal coal inches up as rally stalls
Sxcoal · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Northern China port CCI 5500 rose 1 yuan/t to 1,025 yuan/t FOB VAT on Nov 11 while CCI 5000 gained 1 yuan/t; high-CV grades held support but low-CV cargoes cleared below index on thin downstream inquiries. Northern port stocks held at 24.02 Mt with rail arrivals down 16% DoD, leaving no clear drawdown. Mine-mouth prices eased as chemical buyers stepped back, capping near-term upside ahead of winter restocking. Read →
China 2026 thermal imports seen at 295 Mt on winter buys
World Ports Organization · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Provisional 2026 seaborne arrivals reached 236 Mt by late October with October at 24.72 Mt; reaching 295 Mt requires stronger November-December coastal buying beyond the current pace. Twelve key power facilities took 18.95% of October arrivals and their modeled winter lift leaves room for the target if other buyers accelerate. Panamax thermal coal arrivals to China year-to-date are flat versus 2025 at 169 Mt. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · USDA November WASDE cuts U.S. corn yield 1.6 bu/acre to 179.6, lifts soybean exports 25M bu, tightening stocks and lifting futures.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
446 | -0.4% -2 |
+1.4% | +1.1% | -22.7% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
597 | -0.5% -3 |
+17.7% | +11.3% | -27.0% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,226 | -0.4% -5 |
+19.0% | +8.3% | -0.6% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
18.09 | -2.1% -0.39 |
+20.5% | +25.3% | -9.6% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
269.0 | -0.0% -0.1 |
-22.9% | -33.0% | +22.4% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
4,879 | -0.6% -28 |
-19.6% | -11.1% | +97.5% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.90 | +0.5% +0.38 |
+28.6% | +31.4% | -29.8% |
USDA trims 2026 corn crop 141M bu, boosts soybean exports 25M bu
Global Agriculture · Tue, Nov 11, 2026
USDA lowered 2026/27 U.S. corn production by 141 million bushels to 15.9 billion bushels on a 1.6-bushel yield cut to 179.6 per acre. It raised soybean production 12 million bushels to 4.6 billion and exports 25 million bushels, cutting ending stocks 15 million to 300 million bushels. The tighter balances lifted corn and soybean futures after the Tuesday release. Read →
USDA cuts corn yield, raises soybean exports in November WASDE
Kylene Scott · High Plains Journal · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
The November 10 WASDE lowered U.S. corn yield to 179.6 bushels per acre and production to 15.9 billion bushels, trimming feed use and exports 25 million bushels each. Soybean yield rose to 53.3 bushels per acre and exports jumped 25 million bushels, dropping ending stocks to 300 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks edged up 3 million bushels to 743 million. Read →
USDA trims corn crop, raises soybean exports in November WASDE
Feed & Grain · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
USDA cut 2026 corn production 141 million bushels to 15.893 billion on the lower yield, reducing ending stocks 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion. Soybean exports rose 25 million bushels to 1.72 billion on early-season pace, pulling U.S. ending stocks down 15 million to 300 million bushels. Markets rallied on the tighter-than-expected balances. Read →
USDA November WASDE tightens corn, soybean stocks below estimates
Cassidy Walter · Successful Farming / Agriculture.com · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Corn production fell 141 million bushels to 15.9 billion bushels with yield at 179.6 bushels per acre, below trade guesses, and ending stocks dropped to 1.8 billion bushels. Soybean production rose only 12 million bushels while exports gained 25 million, cutting stocks 15 million bushels to 300 million, below the 332 million average estimate. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · India boosts rabi fertilizer subsidy 64% to $6.65B amid persistent global supply strains and elevated prices.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,747 | +0.4% +7 |
-0.1% | +5.6% | -22.8% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
462.50 | -1.6% -7.50 |
+13.5% | +12.5% | -46.5% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
425.75 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+10.1% | +9.7% | -45.6% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
790.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+26.4% | +6.6% | +9.3% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
India hikes rabi fertilizer subsidy 64% to $6.65B
Reuters · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
India’s cabinet approved ₹62,370 crore ($6.65 billion) in nutrient-based subsidies for phosphatic and potassic fertilizers for the October 2026, March 2027 rabi season, up 64% from the prior year’s allocation. The move responds to sustained high international prices for DAP, MOP, sulfur and other inputs tied to ongoing geopolitical disruptions. DAP retail price stays capped at ₹1,350 per 50-kg bag while total non-urea subsidy outlay for FY27 now exceeds ₹1 trillion. Read →
US retail fertilizer prices mixed in early November
Russ Quinn · DTN · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
DTN’s survey of US agricultural retailers for the first week of November showed five of eight major fertilizers slightly higher month-over-month: DAP at $950/ton, MAP at $991/ton, potash at $504/ton, 10-34-0 at $704/ton and anhydrous ammonia at $1,003/ton. Urea eased to $662/ton, UAN28 to $428/ton and UAN32 to $484/ton. All eight products remain above year-ago levels, with anhydrous ammonia up 17% and urea up 11%. Read →
Nutrien reports strong potash demand, weak nitrogen sales
Reuters · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Nutrien posted Q3 earnings below estimates at 61 cents per share, citing lower nitrogen volumes and higher sulfur costs. The world’s largest potash producer highlighted robust global potash demand and raised full-year volume guidance, while noting Brazilian farmers delaying nitrogen purchases due to tight credit. It completed the Trinidad nitrogen plant shutdown due to unreliable natural gas supply and will close its Florida White Springs phosphate facility in Q2 2027. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · LME aluminum cash premium hits record $151/t amid lowest stocks since 1990; copper rebounds on China supply crunch.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
13,706 | -1.2% -161 |
+10.4% | +22.2% | +39.5% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,299 | +0.4% +52 |
+12.6% | +32.2% | +46.5% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,052 | +1.6% +48 |
+2.6% | +14.4% | +9.8% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,365 | +0.3% +11 |
+12.0% | +20.6% | +0.8% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,227 | +0.4% +67 |
-4.2% | +8.3% | -19.1% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,108 | -0.7% -15 |
-4.3% | -2.5% | -3.2% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
46,903 | -0.4% -181 |
+11.7% | +32.3% | +19.4% |
LME aluminum cash premium hits record $151/t on lowest stocks since 1990.
Bloomberg via Livemint · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
LME aluminum spot traded at a record $151 per ton premium to three-month futures Wednesday, the widest backwardation in over 30 years of data. LME-registered stocks have plunged 56% this year to levels last seen in 1990, with two entities controlling 60 to 80% of available metal. The squeeze tightens physical availability for buyers despite longer-term surplus expectations. Read →
MMG revises EU remedies to boost ferronickel supply for Anglo nickel deal approv
Reuters · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Hong Kong-listed MMG said it will increase proposed annual ferronickel deliveries to Europe to 16,000 metric tons from 11,500 tons and add contract certainty to secure EU antitrust clearance for its $500 million purchase of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business. The European Commission had raised concerns over potential supply diversion to China affecting stainless steel producers. A decision is due by December 21. Read →
LME base metals rise overnight with aluminum up 2.26%, copper 0.84%.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Overnight, LME copper gained 0.84%, aluminum 2.26%, zinc 1.32%, nickel 1.06%, tin 0.38% and lead 0.35%. SHFE copper rose 0.31% and aluminum 1.1%. Gains followed short covering and firmer risk sentiment, with aluminum supported by tight physical conditions. Read →
LME copper rebounds 0.8 to 1% on China supply tightness and AI sentiment recovery.
Reuters via Business Recorder · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
Three-month LME copper rose about 0.8% to $13,793 per ton Wednesday after short covering and a rebound in AI-related equities. The Yangshan import premium held at a record $230 per ton for a third day as Chinese smelter output fell and seaborne arrivals stayed limited. LME cash traded at a $195 per ton premium to three-month metal, reflecting scarce nearby supply outside the US. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Port stocks hit 175.3 Mt as SGX iron ore grinds lower near $92/t amid weak China mill demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
89.0 | -1.8% -1.6 |
-11.6% | -9.2% | +2.6% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
398 | -0.3% -1 |
+1.1% | +3.7% | -37.3% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
415 | -0.5% -2 |
+0.7% | +1.2% | -39.0% |
CMRG secures BHP, Rio deals; Fortescue talks drag
The Edge Malaysia · Wed, Nov 11, 5:12 PM ET
China Mineral Resources Group closed multiyear supply pacts with BHP (to June 2027, yuan elements) and Rio Tinto (to May 2028). Fortescue remains the sole major without agreement, facing year-end deadline and product curbs that have already cut realized prices and sales versus shipments. Centralized buying concentrates negotiation risk, with futures slipping 0.9% to $91.75/t on SGX as event-driven volatility rises. Read →
DCE I2701 settles at 683.5 yuan/mt, down 0.36%
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM ET
DCE most-traded January contract closed 0.5 yuan lower at 683.5 yuan/mt; Qingdao spot prices fell 1 yuan/mt across eight products with thin mill inquiries. Ten-port stocks rose 0.64 Mt WoW while hot-metal output ticked up 5,600 mt/day to 2.363 Mt, offering limited support against seaborne price softness and inventory pressure. Read →
47-port stocks +2.4 Mt to 175.3 Mt, highest since June
Mysteel · Tue, Nov 11 (time unknown)
Imported iron ore at 47 major Chinese ports climbed 2.4 Mt or 1.4% WoW to 175.3 Mt as of Nov 5, the highest level since late June per Mysteel survey. Arrivals jumped 30% MoM while port pick-up eased with softer hot-metal output, capping futures upside and keeping the market range-bound near recent highs. Read →
Rebar social stocks -105k mt WoW to 3.92 Mt
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Nov 12, 11:25 AM ET
SMM construction-steel social inventory fell 104,800 mt or 2.6% WoW to 3.925 Mt as of Nov 12, with faster destocking in east and south China offset by slower northern and northeastern drawdowns amid cold weather. Regional divergence highlights uneven end-user demand release despite futures support. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Dollar surge and Fed rate-hike odds pressure gold below $4,000 overnight.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
3,955 | -1.1% -46 |
-8.9% | -5.7% | +112% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
51.13 | -1.7% -0.87 |
-27.1% | -3.7% | +102% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,530 | -0.6% -9 |
-24.8% | -4.6% | +40.6% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,023 | -2.3% -24 |
-37.2% | -30.5% | -51.6% |
Gold hits one-week low on dollar surge, Fed hike bets
Reuters · Thu, Nov 12, 6:40 AM ET
Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,931.54/oz, its lowest since Nov. 4, after Tuesday's hotter-than-expected US CPI pushed the dollar to a 19-month high and fully priced a December Fed rate hike. Traders now see an 89% chance of a 25 bp hike and 11% odds of 50 bp; the move raises gold's opportunity cost versus yields. Read →
Gold stays below $4,000 on Fed hike expectations
Bloomberg · Thu, Nov 12, 1:24 AM ET
Gold traded near $3,985/oz after dropping more than 1% Wednesday as October CPI surprised hotter and Fed officials signaled further tightening. Markets fully price a December quarter-point hike, with some seeing a half-point chance, pressuring the non-yielding metal. Read →
Gold falls on hot CPI, stronger dollar, Fed signals
Reuters · Wed, Nov 11, 7:17 PM ET
Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $3,986.79/oz Wednesday, extending Tuesday's nearly 3% slide after US CPI rose 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. Fed Governor Waller flagged a possible 50 bp December hike on core inflation at 0.3%; palladium rose 1.8% to $1,043 while central-bank buying provided some floor. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China extends rare earth export-control pause to Jan 10, 2027 as ex-China yttrium and dysprosium prices hit 9 to 125x China levels.
Yttrium price jumps ninefold on China curbs
Machika Suzuki · Nikkei Asia · Thu, Nov 12, 4:12 AM ET
Yttrium prices have risen ninefold over the past year under China’s export licensing regime, prompting Japanese chip-equipment and jet-engine makers to seek alternative supplies. China’s curbs on the seven medium and heavy rare earths, including yttrium, remain active while the broader October package stays paused. Non-Chinese output from Lynas is not expected until 2028, leaving buyers reliant on limited stockpiles and new projects. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index surges 3.4% to 2,959 on broad vessel gains, led by Capesize up 5.5%.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.37M | -3.0% | +1180% | 227.2 | 31.00 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$239k | -42.8% | +198% | 71.4 | 9.74 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$116k | -49.6% | +85.9% | 73.8 | 10.07 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$308k | +1.4% | +879% | 200.7 | 26.94 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$227k | +1.9% | +857% | 212.6 | 23.89 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$71k | -16.5% | +241% | 97.8 | 11.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$72k | -5.0% | +242% | 98.8 | 13.26 |
Report of Nov 5, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; WetBarrel's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: WetBarrel.
Baltic Dry Index rises 3.4% to 2,959 on Capesize strength
Priya Anika Rajan · World Ports Organization · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry-bulk index climbed 97 points or 3.4% to 2,959 on Wednesday, its highest since October 8, extending gains for a sixth session. Capesize rates jumped 243 points or 5.5% to 4,700, lifting average daily earnings $2,208 to $39,125, while Panamax added 28 points to 2,103. Iron ore futures slipped amid expected Chinese steel curbs, but stronger vessel demand across segments drove the broad advance. Read →
Suez return risks northern Europe port congestion
WWD / Sourcing Journal · Tue, Nov 11, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
Flexport forecasts 131% of normal capacity arriving at northern European ports in the week of Nov. 16 to 22, with 40% via Suez Canal as shorter voyages bunch with Cape of Good Hope sailings. Rotterdam faces 145% and Antwerp-Bruges 151% of normal volumes, exceeding the 120% congestion threshold. Three services adding Ain Sokhna in one week and 31 Suez arrivals alongside 61 Cape ships heighten pressure on yards and intermodal links. Read →
Volare buys seventh VLCC for $210 million
Shipping Telegraph · Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Volare Shipping agreed to acquire the scrubber-fitted eco VLCC Veni Vidi Vici from a Trafigura affiliate for $210 million, with delivery November 20 from Hengli yard. The purchase brings its on-water VLCC fleet to seven, backed by eight more newbuilds due 2027 to 2028, funded via cash and lease financing. The deal targets immediate earnings contribution in a strong tanker market under Trafigura commercial management. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs rise to €89.90 as funds add length amid equity rally and energy gains.
Norway agrees to buy up to 12M tons of Indonesian solar carbon credits.
Reuters · Thu, Nov 12, 2:25 AM ET
Norway signed a Mitigation Outcome Purchase Agreement to acquire up to 12 million metric tons of carbon credits from PLN solar projects, priced at $20 to 40 per ton under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. The deal, struck at COP31, provides Indonesia financing for its energy transition via ITMOs. It marks one of the largest bilateral Article 6.2 transactions to date and signals growing demand for high-integrity compliance-grade credits. Read →
EUAs rise for third session as funds add length on equity rally.
Alessandro Vitelli · Carbon Pulse · Wed, Nov 11, 5:08 PM ET
EU carbon prices climbed for a third straight day in light trading, breaking technical levels as European equities rallied and supported accumulation. A surprise Commitment of Traders report showed funds built length despite the prior dip. Natural gas and power prices also extended gains, adding bullish tone to the complex. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC updates FAQs letting commodities firms invest customer funds in tokenized assets and use blockchain for records.
Coinbase accepts PAXG as collateral for USDC loans on Base
BlockWest · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
Paxos launched its PAXG tokenized-gold token on Coinbase’s Base network on November 6. Coinbase users can now borrow USDC against PAXG holdings via Morpho markets without leaving the app. Each PAXG represents one troy ounce of physical gold in custody, extending tokenized-commodity utility into lending while noting that pricing pauses on weekends when traditional gold markets are closed. Read →
FIA submits comments to CFTC on tokenized collateral use
FIA · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
The Futures Industry Association filed responses to CFTC requests for input on tokenized collateral, including stablecoins, in derivatives markets and on recommendations from the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets. The submissions aim to support broader adoption of digital assets in U.S. derivatives while seeking clarity on treatment of tokenized instruments as collateral. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil-sands M&A and gas-processor earnings rebound lift corporate activity as Strathcona buys Greenfire and ADNOC Gas doubles profit.
Strathcona buys Greenfire in up to C$2.9B oil-sands deal
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 5:05 PM ET
Strathcona Resources agreed to acquire Greenfire Resources in a cash-and-stock deal valued at C$2.7 to 2.9 billion including debt. The transaction creates a larger Canadian oil-sands producer with over 3 billion barrels of proved plus probable reserves and expected annual cost synergies of C$75 million. It consolidates holdings under Waterous Energy Fund and positions the combined entity as Canada's fourth-largest SAGD operator. Read →
ADNOC Gas doubles Q3 profit, lifts 2026 guidance
Oil & Gas 360 · Tue, Nov 11
ADNOC Gas reported Q3 net income of $1.34 billion, up 101% quarter-on-quarter, with EBITDA rising 70% to $2.03 billion. Stronger domestic natural gas sales, international product sales and sulfur operations drove the rebound despite Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions. The company raised full-year 2026 net income guidance to at least $4 billion and approved a $940 million quarterly dividend. Read →
Petrobras posts R$39.75B Q3 profit, raises output target
Fábio Couto, Rafael Rosas, Victor Meneses · Valor International · Wed, Nov 11
Petrobras reported Q3 net income of R$39.75 billion, up 21.5% year-on-year, on record oil and gas production and Brent averaging $97 per barrel. Adjusted EBITDA rose 34.3% to R$85.8 billion while the company announced R$15.3 billion in shareholder distributions. It lifted its 2026 own production target to 3.3 to 3.4 million boe/d from 3.1 million. Read →
CRH buys four Oregon quarries to expand aggregates
Mike Lacey · Rock to Road · Wed, Nov 12
CRH Americas Materials acquired the assets of Western Rock Resources and Columbia Northwest Recycling, adding four active quarries along Oregon's I-5 corridor. The deal bolsters aggregate reserves and recycling capacity to serve growing construction and infrastructure demand in the Portland-Salem-Willamette Valley region. It supports CRH's strategy of disciplined acquisitions in attractive North American markets. Read →
Comstock sells Haynesville stakes to SOCAR for $1.65B
Seeking Alpha / company filing · Tue, Nov 4
Comstock Resources signed a definitive agreement to sell non-operated interests in its Legacy and Western Haynesville assets plus a stake in Pinnacle Gas Services to SOCAR for $1.65 billion in cash. The deal, effective July 1 and expected to close by year-end, includes provisions for SOCAR's Western Haynesville stake to step down after five years upon achieving a 15% return. Proceeds will support debt reduction and Western Haynesville development. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump modifies Section 232 steel/aluminum/copper tariffs, easing some ag equipment duties to 15%.
Trump eases some Section 232 steel, aluminum, copper tariffs.
Margaret Spiegelman · Inside U.S. Trade · Wed, Nov 12, 2026
President Trump issued a new proclamation adjusting national security tariffs under Section 232 on steel, aluminum and copper products. It temporarily lowers duties on certain farm equipment and other derivative goods from 25% to 15% to support U.S. agriculture and domestic production. The changes target full customs value tariffs introduced earlier in 2026. Read →
US firms avoid Russian diesel despite sanctions waiver.
Reuters · Wed, Nov 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
A tanker carrying Russian diesel idles off the U.S. East Coast as companies decline to import the fuel. The Treasury's general license and Trump's Graham Act waiver aimed to ease domestic diesel prices, but legal and reputational risks deter buyers. U.S. diesel prices remain elevated despite the measures. Read →
Senate advances bipartisan energy permitting reform bill.
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
A bipartisan Senate bill to speed federal approvals for pipelines, power lines and energy projects passed a 73 to 25 procedural vote. The measure targets regulatory delays affecting oil, gas and renewables development. It must still clear Congress before the end of the term. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Brent drops to $92.44 as prices swing on supply and geopolitics
X / multiple traders · Thu, Nov 12
Traders on X under #OOTT note Brent futures falling 0.3% to $92.44/bbl with prices swinging. Discussions highlight ongoing volatility from supply data and geopolitical factors in the Middle East, with retail and professional accounts watching for direction in energy markets. Read →
Brent open interest plunges, traders eye positioning
X / @staunovo · Thu, Nov 12
Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo posts chart showing sharp drop in aggregated Brent and WTI open interest. #OOTT traders discuss implications for market liquidity and sentiment, with replies probing reasons behind the decline in a key energy benchmark. Read →
Brent-Shanghai crude spread in focus for arb plays
X / @staunovo · Thu, Nov 12
Staunovo shares chart comparing Brent front-month futures to Shanghai crude in USD/bbl. #OOTT community engages on regional pricing differences and arbitrage opportunities amid global supply dynamics. Read →
Singapore stocks up 2.1mb, watch for product glut
X / @staunovo · Thu, Nov 12
Singapore oil product inventories climb 2.116mb week-over-week to 40.368mb. Traders on X flag the build as a potential signal for refined product balances in Asia. Read →
BP eyes sale of Brazil stake to Petrobras
X / @finsquawk_ · Thu, Nov 12
FinSquawk reports BP in discussions to offload stake in a Brazil oil discovery to Petrobras. #OOTT accounts highlight the deal as part of shifting asset strategies in Latin American energy. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
McGlone: Commodities peaked, cycle turning down
Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence on BNN Bloomberg · Tue, Nov 11
Crude unlikely to revisit near $100 and typically reverts toward $55 production cost. Watch/Listen →
S&P Global: Europe storage gap may reshape LNG flows
S&P Global Commodities Focus podcast · Wed, Nov 11
Europe enters winter with storage below year-ago levels amid Russian LNG phaseout. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces the end of the Iran blockade by March 31, 2027
63%
-7pp w/w
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
8%
-3pp w/w
WTI tops its $147 record by March 31, 2027
14%
-3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire agreement would open the way to sanctions relief on Russian crude, diesel and pipeline gas, bearish for Brent, European diesel cracks and TTF. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027
36%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
8%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
87%
+9pp w/w
US recession by end of 2027
28%
unch
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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