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Tuesday, November 10, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,580
+0.08%
+6 |
Dollar Index
101.75
+0.09%
+0.09 |
EUR/USD
1.1226
+0.07%
+0.0008 |
US 10Y Yield
4.864
+0.5 bp
|
Last price as of Tue, Nov 10, 5:35 AM ET. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude (Brent) down $2.46 (-3%) this morning on Trump downplaying further strikes against Iran and easing Middle East escalation fears. Crude is down 22% this month, with last weeks 16% fall being the biggest weekly drop since Covid.
Signs of a renewed global surplus (JPMorgan estimates 1.4 million barrels per day in October) and physical market weakness (Cash Brent now trading at a $1/bbl discount to futures compared to a $30 premium a month ago.. see wetbarrels.com for realtime cash oil prices).
Mid East flows remain robust despite shipping incidents near Hormuz and some attacks (including on Saudi infrastructure).
Propane down $0.057 (-5%) on falling crude and LPG futures amid de-escalation signals.
Cocoa down $175 (-3%) on rising ICE certified stocks to 2.5-year highs and weak demand outweighing crop risks.
Pentane down $0.071 (-3%) on falling crude and energy complex prices.
Newcastle coal down $3.75 (-3%) on sliding crude and LNG prices reducing relative value.
Isobutane down $0.043 (-2%) on falling crude and LPG futures.
Kicker: Saxo Bank expects gold to recover over next 12 to 18 months and potentially reclaim earlier 2026 highs (Saxo Bank, Nov 8).
Signs of a renewed global surplus (JPMorgan estimates 1.4 million barrels per day in October) and physical market weakness (Cash Brent now trading at a $1/bbl discount to futures compared to a $30 premium a month ago.. see wetbarrels.com for realtime cash oil prices).
Mid East flows remain robust despite shipping incidents near Hormuz and some attacks (including on Saudi infrastructure).
Propane down $0.057 (-5%) on falling crude and LPG futures amid de-escalation signals.
Cocoa down $175 (-3%) on rising ICE certified stocks to 2.5-year highs and weak demand outweighing crop risks.
Pentane down $0.071 (-3%) on falling crude and energy complex prices.
Newcastle coal down $3.75 (-3%) on sliding crude and LNG prices reducing relative value.
Isobutane down $0.043 (-2%) on falling crude and LPG futures.
Kicker: Saxo Bank expects gold to recover over next 12 to 18 months and potentially reclaim earlier 2026 highs (Saxo Bank, Nov 8).
Drivers and the Kicker house view are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil drops as Trump signals no new Iran strikes needed
Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Brent crude futures fell on Tuesday, extending losses after US President Donald Trump said military action against Iran is not necessary 'at this point,' easing fears of sustained supply disruptions from the Middle East. Both benchmarks had fallen about 2% in the session, with Brent settling down 5.85% the previous day to its lowest since August 31. Read →
Trump says further Iran strikes unlikely after Qatar talks
Bloomberg · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
US President Donald Trump indicated he’s keen to pursue diplomacy with Iran and wind down the war following a White House meeting with the prime minister of Qatar. Further strikes on Iran won’t be necessary, though the US remains 'locked and loaded,' Trump said on Monday after talks with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Read →
Corn hits four-month low ahead of USDA report
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Corn prices slipped to the lowest since July 1 ahead of the US Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand outlook that’s expected to show larger global supplies of the yellow grain. Futures fell as much as 0.8% to $4.38 bushel in Chicago before trimming losses. Read →
Qatar LNG loadings rise to half pre-war pace
Bloomberg · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Liquefied natural gas loadings onto tankers from Qatar have picked up over the past few weeks, suggesting the major exporter is seeking to get more cargoes to the global market despite ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The number of LNG shipments departing Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility has ranged from 13 to 15 on a 10-day moving average basis so far this month. Read →
Copper rebounds with tech stocks rally
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Copper extended its rebound from last week’s slump, tracking a rally in technology shares due to the metal’s use in power infrastructure and data centers. The industrial metal has moved in tandem with artificial intelligence stocks in recent months. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 3US Nat Gas 4NGL/LPG & Petchems 1Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 1Coal 3Agriculture 2Fertilizers 1Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 2Shipping & Freight 2Environment 2On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 1Social buzz 5Podcasts 1Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Brent falls toward $90 as Trump signals no further Iran strikes, unwinding geopolitical risk premium.
Cash WTI 88.44 -1.89 | Cash Brent 89.14 -2.78 | Cash Br–TI 0.70 -0.89 |
Physical cash prices from WetBarrel.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
84.80 | -2.4% -2.05 |
+47.7% | +38.9% | +4.2% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
90.11 | -2.7% -2.46 |
+48.1% | +38.3% | +9.0% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.606 | -1.7% -0.045 |
+52.8% | +29.5% | +13.4% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.036 | -4.2% -0.179 |
+90.3% | +56.7% | +64.6% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
24.65 | +0.7% +0.16 |
+73.6% +10.45 |
+5.1% +1.19 |
+62.9% +9.51 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
84.71 | -6.1% -5.46 |
+168% +53.07 |
+79.7% +37.58 |
+292% +63.07 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
44.67 | -3.7% -1.71 |
+123% +24.65 |
+42.5% +13.32 |
+158% +27.37 |
Brent drops to $90 as Trump rules out more Iran strikes.
Kimberley Kao · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Brent crude traded at $90 a barrel in early European trading after President Trump said military action against Iran did not seem necessary at this point. WTI fell 2.6% to $84.55. Markets are unwinding the geopolitical risk premium built into prices amid signs of de-escalation. Read →
OPEC output rises 1.38 million bpd in October.
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
OPEC crude output climbed 1.38 million barrels per day month-on-month to 22.87 million bpd in October, reaching 90% of February's pre-war rate. Gains were led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq despite export constraints from the Iran conflict. Read →
Oil tanker rates plunge but stay elevated.
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Supertanker rates for U.S. Gulf to Asia fell to $45 million for 2 million barrels, down from $79.6 million a month ago. The drop makes some long-haul crude trades more attractive while rates remain historically high. Read →
Charts of the day
| 1 | OPEC output chart Oct 2026via @LSREnergy on X · 23 likesReuters survey bar chart showing OPEC oil output rising to 90% of pre-war rate in October |
| 2 | Crude freight rates and WCS differentialvia @boecstatic on X · 581 likes |
| 3 | German power 1y contract 2026-27via @JavierBlas on X · 121 likes |
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · US natural gas futures surge on cooler weather forecasts and record LNG feedgas demand, triggering short-covering.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
3.242 | +0.7% +0.024 |
-12.0% | -29.0% | -33.6% |
US natgas futures rise 5% on colder forecasts
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 5:15 PM ET
December NYMEX natural gas futures rose 5.4% to $3.16/MMBtu, the highest level in three weeks, on forecasts for cooler temperatures boosting heating demand. Lower 48 output averaged 112.1 Bcf/d so far in November, down from October, while LNG feedgas flows hit a record 19.3 Bcf/d. Demand including exports is projected to rise to 120 Bcf/d next week. Read →
US natgas surges most in six weeks on short squeeze
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 2:57 PM ET
Futures jumped as much as 8.3%, the largest gain since September, after cooler Atlantic seaboard forecasts prompted hedge funds to unwind record short positions. Money managers' short-only position hit a fresh record last week on Super El Niño warm-winter bets. The move was amplified by positioning rather than fundamentals alone. Read →
Record LNG demand sends natgas futures above $3
Natural Gas Intelligence · Mon, Nov 9
LNG feedgas demand reached a record 20.4 Bcf/d as export plants ran near full capacity, supporting prices alongside cooler forecasts. December futures rallied comfortably above $3/MMBtu. Production slipped but LNG flows provided the strongest structural bullish factor. Read →
Sub-$3 gas leaves Comstock Haynesville wells breakeven
Chris Newman · Natural Gas Intelligence · Mon, Nov 9, 1:46 PM ET
Comstock Resources' Western Haynesville wells average 33 MMcf/d and sit at breakeven near $3/MMBtu, with hedges lifting realized prices only to $2.94. The company relies on a $1.65B asset sale and a drilling venture to sustain nine rigs amid low prices. This highlights margin pressure on Haynesville producers despite LNG demand growth. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
Sponsored · Kpler
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Propane settles 5% lower at 110.0¢/gal as weak Asian cracker margins and ample VLGC tonnage shut USGC-to-FEI arbs.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.306 | +1.4% +0.004 |
+29.2% | +17.0% | -24.0% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.100 | -5.0% -0.057 |
+78.3% | +72.1% | -20.5% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.847 | -2.1% -0.041 |
+148% | +117% | +16.0% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.798 | -2.3% -0.043 |
+131% | +103% | +13.0% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
1.968 | -3.5% -0.071 |
+67.9% | +58.0% | +4.7% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 9 | unch | +10 | +13 | +1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 80 | -6 | +52 | +58 | -14 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -586 | +40 | -303 | -271 | -176 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -251 | +7 | -104 | -66 | -250 |
| C5 as % WTI | 98 | -1 | +12 | +12 | +1 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
USGC VLGC supply tight but propane arbs to Asia shut on weak cracker margins
Michael Ryan · Sparta Commodities · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
USGC VLGC availability tightened to three ships last week versus a six-ship average, firming spot BLPG3 rates mildly. Every Houston-Chiba propane window remains shut despite 4 cpg FOB weakening, with the best December-January cargo showing a -$30.64/mt margin against naphtha. Forward curves price December freight at $282/mt as LR competition from the Arabian Gulf widens the gap for US propane. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF rises 1% to €83/MWh on EU storage at 72% full and net withdrawals accelerating as winter demand builds.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
82.23 | -0.3% -0.27 |
+192% | +164% | +17.2% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
27.05 | -0.3% -0.09 |
+192% | +164% | +17.2% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.35 | -0.5% -0.14 |
+226% | +182% | +0.7% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sun, Nov 8
EU gas storage is 72.4% full, 820 TWh in store, 17.0 points below the five-year average for this date and 10.2 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 59.0%, 29.6 points below its five-year average and 15.9 points below a year ago. LNG terminals are 45.1% full and sent out 4,028 GWh, 1% more than the day before.
EU full 72.4% -0.28 pts d/d | Year ago 82.6% | 5-yr avg 89.4% same date |
Germany 59.0% | Year ago 74.9% | 5-yr avg 88.6% same date |
Source: GIE AGSI+ and ALSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Hormuz LNG transits hit October high since war start
Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 6:26 AM ET
S&P Global and Kpler data show 31 laden LNG tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz in October, up from 23 in September and the highest since the US-Iran conflict began. Qatar loadings reached 35 cargoes, the most since the war started. The rise signals partial recovery in Middle East flows but remains well below pre-war levels, easing some supply pressure on European and Asian benchmarks. Read →
Europe gas storage woes to persist into 2027
Anna Shiryaevskaya · Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 7:47 AM ET
Forecasts indicate EU inventories could reach multi-year lows by spring 2027 after starting the heating season at 72% full, well below the five-year average. Persistent low stocks and ongoing Middle East LNG disruptions will keep restocking needs elevated next summer, supporting structurally higher TTF prices into 2027. Read →
Nordics face winter power price spike risks
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 6:18 AM ET
Mind Energy warns of heightened Nordic power price spikes this winter from an 11 TWh hydro deficit and tight European gas supplies amid low storage and Middle East LNG curbs. Southern Norway, Sweden and Denmark zones are already seeing day-ahead prices above €200/MWh when wind is low, with German gas plants setting marginal prices. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM delays data-center backstop auction after partial FERC approval, keeping capacity shortfall pressure high.
FERC chair slams PJM delay of data-center backstop auction
Utility Dive · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
PJM is delaying its planned reliability backstop procurement auction for data centers after FERC partly approved the plan but rejected key cost-allocation elements. The auction targets 6.8 GW of new capacity to address a shortfall in the 2028/29 delivery year driven by data-center load growth. The delay leaves the capacity shortfall unresolved ahead of the next base auction and sustains upward pressure on PJM capacity prices. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures fell over 2% to $138/t as oil and gas prices dropped on de-escalation hopes in the Middle East.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
131.75 | -1.7% -2.30 |
+35.2% | +36.5% | -7.9% |
| Newcastle $/t |
134.00 | -2.7% -3.75 |
+26.7% | +19.5% | -15.8% |
Chinese buyers resist Indonesian 2027 coal contract waivers
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 10, 2026
Chinese thermal coal buyers are rejecting proposed clauses in 2027 supply contracts that would let Indonesian miners avoid delivery obligations if Jakarta cuts production quotas or delays export permits. The pushback stems from prior disruptions tied to Indonesian policy changes this year and threatens to delay deals that support miner output planning. The standoff highlights ongoing supply uncertainty for Asia's largest importer amid winter restocking needs. Read →
Thermal coal prices drop as Europe and Asia demand eases
The Coal Hub · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
European API2 futures fell toward $134/t and Australian High-CV thermal coal dropped below $149/t as oil and gas prices declined amid fading Middle East risk premiums and rising wind generation in Europe. Chinese Qinhuangdao spot prices eased to $150/t with expectations of higher Shanxi output in November. Seaborne thermal exports from Indonesia face further pressure from permit constraints and domestic obligations, with 2026 totals projected around 445 million tonnes. Read →
India thermal coal imports rebound in October
World Ports Organization / Argus · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
India's thermal coal imports are estimated at 15.06 million tonnes in October, the highest since May 2025 and up sharply from September, driven by record coal-fired power generation of 86.27 TWh through Oct 22 and stronger post-monsoon industrial demand. Power sector consumption rose 27.6% year-on-year. Coal India holds 67 million tonnes of pithead stocks to support the surge while authorities accelerate mine-to-rail evacuation. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Corn hits fresh 4-month low at $4.38/bu as traders position ahead of Tuesday USDA WASDE report expected to lift global supplies.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
442 | +0.6% +3 |
+0.3% | +2.3% | -22.4% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
590 | +0.3% +2 |
+16.3% | +10.0% | -26.6% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,196 | +0.7% +8 |
+16.1% | +7.5% | -0.6% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
18.21 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+21.3% | +27.8% | -7.1% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
273.9 | +0.1% +0.3 |
-21.5% | -35.2% | +34.3% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
4,829 | -3.5% -175 |
-20.4% | -17.2% | +95.3% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.58 | -0.3% -0.20 |
+28.5% | +29.3% | -30.4% |
Cocoa hits 3-month low on stocks, demand
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
London cocoa futures fell 2.6% to £3,920 per metric ton, hitting a three-month low, pressured by rising exchange stocks at 2.5-year highs and weak chocolate demand growth. New York cocoa dropped 2.4% to $5,138 per ton as arrivals in Ivory Coast lagged sharply year-over-year. Read →
US corn 81% harvested, soy 92% complete
EllaMae Reiff · DTN · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
USDA NASS reported US corn harvest at 81% complete as of Nov. 8, 5 points behind the five-year average, with Iowa at just 72%. Soybean harvest reached 92%, slightly ahead of average, while winter wheat planting hit 89% complete amid improving Great Plains conditions. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Hormuz disruption and high sulfur/gas costs drive ammonia up $95/t while urea/phosphates soften on buyer resistance.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,745 | +1.2% +20 |
-0.2% | +5.1% | -25.4% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
469.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+15.1% | +15.0% | -45.5% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
425.50 | +0.1% +0.25 |
+10.0% | +9.4% | -45.6% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
795.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+27.2% | +8.5% | +9.3% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Iran war fertilizer crunch risks 2027 grain yields as farmers cut applications
Gus Trompiz and Naveen Thukral · MillingandMillers.com (republished from Reuters) · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Ongoing Strait of Hormuz standstill has halted Qatar urea output and curtailed sulfur/ammonia flows, with at least 2 million tonnes of urea production lost and nearly 1 million tonnes of loaded cargo stuck in the Gulf. Farmers face a steeper supply crunch than in 2022 amid low grain prices, prompting planting cuts in Australia and reduced applications elsewhere; analysts warn of lower 2027 harvests if the squeeze persists. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Copper rebounds as China physical tightness drives Yangshan premium to record $230/t and SHFE stocks to 3-year low.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
13,908 | -0.6% -79 |
+12.1% | +25.0% | +45.8% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,264 | +0.6% +78 |
+12.3% | +31.9% | +46.1% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,118 | +0.6% +19 |
+4.8% | +16.9% | +12.2% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,364 | -0.3% -12 |
+12.0% | +20.6% | +0.8% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,295 | +0.3% +48 |
-3.8% | +8.7% | -18.8% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,132 | -0.3% -5 |
-3.2% | -1.4% | -2.1% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
46,832 | +0.7% +324 |
+11.5% | +32.1% | +19.2% |
Copper rebounds on China supply tightness, record premiums
Eric Onstad · Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
LME three-month copper rose 0.9% to $13,890/t after a 2.7% weekly drop, its steepest since March. The Yangshan import premium hit a record $230/t while SHFE copper stocks fell over 24% last week to 33,848 t, the lowest in nearly three years. Spot premiums in Shanghai tripled in two weeks to 2,615 yuan/t as smelters face concentrate and scrap shortages. Read →
Copper edges up on tech rebound and lower oil
Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
LME three-month copper gained 0.31% to $13,939/t and SHFE copper rose 0.14% to 107,700 yuan/t. China’s October copper concentrate imports fell 11% year-on-year amid negative treatment charges and lower sulfuric acid prices. LME cash-to-three-month spread remained in $175/t backwardation, signaling tight nearby availability. Read →
Funds sell copper as China buyers scramble
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
US funds cut net long positions sharply while SHFE stocks hit a three-year low of 33,848 t. The Yangshan premium reached a record $230/t as US tariff expectations pulled metal into American warehouses, leaving global availability tight. LME cash copper trades at a $195/t premium over three-month metal. Read →
Copper rebounds on tight China supply
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
LME three-month copper rose 0.7% to $13,869/t after last week’s steep losses. The Yangshan premium hit a record $230/t and SHFE stocks fell more than 24% to 33,848 t. Citi cut its three-month copper price forecast to $13,300/t from $14,500/t citing weakening AI sentiment. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures eased to 684 yuan/t amid China pollution curbs and seasonal demand weakness.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
90.8 | -0.5% -0.5 |
-9.8% | -7.5% | +4.6% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
399 | -0.2% -1 |
+1.3% | +3.9% | -37.2% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
416 | -0.8% -3 |
+0.9% | +1.4% | -38.9% |
DCE iron ore futures close lower Tuesday.
Bastille Post · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
The most active DCE January 2027 iron ore contract fell 0.07% to 684 yuan per tonne in daytime trading. Prices slipped on mounting concerns over Chinese steel demand after steelmakers in key hubs like Tangshan and Handan imposed output curbs due to heavy air pollution forecasts. This added pressure to an already seasonally weak period for steel consumption. Read →
EAF operating rate rises 2.06 points.
SMM · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
As of November 10, the operating rate of 50 EAF mills producing construction steel reached 37.06%, up 2.06 percentage points period-on-period, with capacity utilization at 35.77%. Daily average output of construction steel increased 2,900 tonnes to 79,600 tonnes. Rebar export quotes at Tianjin Port held steady at USD 470 to 475/tonne amid decent Middle East inquiries. Read →
DCE iron ore futures drop on pollution curbs.
Reuters via Business Recorder · Mon, Nov 10, 2026
The most-traded DCE iron ore contract fell 0.73% to 684.5 yuan per tonne after hitting a four-week high of 694.5 yuan on November 6. Northern China steel hubs announced emergency production curbs from Monday due to heavy air pollution forecasts, weighing on hot metal output already at a four-week low of 2.31 million tonnes daily. SGX benchmark December iron ore eased 0.58% to USD 92.5 per tonne. Read →
Rebar exports stable; EAF rate climbs.
SMM · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Rebar export quotations at Tianjin Port remained stable at USD 470 to 475 per tonne with steady Middle East demand. EAF operating rate for construction steel mills rose 2.06 points to 37.06% as of November 10. Vietnam's Hoa Phat secured around 500,000 tonnes of domestic HRC orders at USD 559 to 560 per tonne CIF. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold eases to $4,124/oz on profit-taking ahead of US CPI as dollar softens and oil slides.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,086 | -0.7% -29 |
-5.9% | -0.7% | +121% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
52.45 | -0.5% -0.24 |
-25.2% | +3.6% | +112% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,561 | -0.1% -1 |
-23.3% | -1.8% | +45.1% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,033 | +1.1% +11 |
-36.6% | -29.6% | -49.3% |
Gold eases ahead of US CPI on profit-taking after Monday rally.
Sukanya Mitra · Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 3:31 AM ET
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,124.42/oz Tuesday as traders locked in gains after a >1% Monday rally. Investors await the US CPI report for clues on December Fed rate odds, now at 84% for a hike. Silver slid 0.3% to $53.22/oz while platinum held steady and palladium dropped 0.2%. Read →
Central banks bought 321t gold in Q3, 6% ahead of 2025 pace.
Ernest Hoffman · Kitco News · Mon, Nov 9, 10:02 AM ET
Heraeus said central banks added 321 tonnes of gold in Q3, up 42% YoY and lifting YTD purchases to 675t, 6% ahead of last year. Only 120t was disclosed, led by China (63t) and Poland (40t). Gold and silver extended their post-election rebound Monday amid a softer dollar and lower oil. Read →
Barrick posts $1.35B adjusted Q3 earnings, holds 2026 gold output guidance.
Kitco News · Mon, Nov 9, 9:53 AM ET
Barrick reported Q3 adjusted net earnings of $1.35B ($0.82/share), beating estimates, on 816k oz gold output up 3% QoQ. Revenue rose 22% YoY to $5.07B. The miner kept full-year gold guidance at 2.90 to 3.25M oz and AISC of $1,760 to 1,950/oz. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China extends rare earth export control pause to Jan 10, easing near-term supply pressure ahead of Trump-Xi talks.
China extends rare earth curbs pause two months
Kyle Fitzgerald · The National · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Beijing formalised a two-month extension of the rare earth export control pause to January 10, formalising the broader trade truce extension. The US Trade Representative and Treasury stressed the need for China to meet commitments on rare earths and critical minerals. The extension provides breathing room but leaves the April licensing requirements for key magnet inputs intact. Read →
EU supply push hampered by pricing, financing
Xiaofei Xu · South China Morning Post · Tue, Nov 10, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
European industry welcomed the extension for short-term relief but highlighted persistent barriers including unreliable pricing, wary investors and differing national rules. EIT RawMaterials CEO Bernd Schaefer said the pause underscores the urgency of diversification. Analysts warned the EU is running out of time to build alternative supply chains. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · BDI jumps 1.8% to 2,854 on Capesize/Panamax rally amid iron ore steadiness; Hormuz LNG and product flows recover.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.41M | +4.5% | +992% | 234.9 | 32.05 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$418k | -2.7% | +495% | 118.3 | 16.14 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$230k | +9.8% | +262% | 133.8 | 18.25 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$304k | -7.7% | +781% | 199.9 | 26.83 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$223k | -8.9% | +758% | 211.1 | 23.72 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$85k | +36.7% | +178% | 114.8 | 13.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -3.5% | +278% | 104.8 | 14.07 |
Report of Oct 29, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; WetBarrel's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: WetBarrel.
BDI rises 1.8% to 2,854 on Capesize and Panamax gains
Anjana Anil · Reuters / World Ports Organization · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index climbed 49 points or 1.8% to 2,854, its highest since October 9, driven by the Capesize index surging 115 points (2.7%) to 4,459 with daily earnings up $1,044 to $36,936 and the Panamax index adding 34 points (1.7%) to 2,037 with earnings up $300 to $18,330. Supramax eased slightly. Iron ore futures held steady with a second weekly gain on expectations of lower coke prices easing steel mill costs, lifting rates for larger vessels hauling iron ore and coal. Read →
Persian Gulf product loadings rise, easing oil market
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 10, 2026
Refined products loaded in the Persian Gulf reached about 3 million barrels per day in October, mostly exiting via the Strait of Hormuz, up from a May low of 1 million b/d though still half pre-conflict levels, per Vortexa ship-tracking data. The increase in distillates, naphtha, and LPG provides relief to the tight global oil market nine months into the Iran war. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs rally on strong auction and equities as EU ETS emissions fell 2% in 2025 but decarbonisation pace slows.
EU ETS emissions fell 2% in 2025, revenues hit €43 bln
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
The European Commission reported that EU ETS-covered emissions dropped 2% in 2025, generating €43 billion in revenues, but warned the reduction pace has slowed and requires accelerated industrial decarbonisation investment. Slower cuts raise questions about long-term allowance demand tightness in the compliance market. Read →
EEX sets Jan 18 launch for EU ETS2 auctions and spot
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
The European Energy Exchange announced it will start primary auctions and secondary spot trading for EU ETS2 allowances on January 18, 2027, covering buildings, road transport and other sectors. The move provides infrastructure for the new system ahead of its 2028 compliance start and signals growing market depth for transport and heating fuels. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC guidance lets commodities firms invest in tokenized assets and use blockchain records, boosting on-chain commodity adoption.
CFTC lets commodities firms invest in tokenized assets, use blockchain records
CryptoSynk · Mon, Nov 9, 6:00 PM ET
The CFTC updated guidance allowing supervised commodities firms to allocate client capital to tokenized versions of permitted assets if they confer equivalent legal and economic rights, and confirmed blockchain or distributed ledgers can satisfy recordkeeping obligations. This removes a key barrier for regulated entities to hold tokenized commodities like gold or oil-linked instruments on-chain. The move accelerates TradFi integration into RWA markets amid stalled broader legislation. Read →
Binance gold products hit $325M 7-day volume, record $78M on Nov 5
Enna Lee · TokenPost · Mon, Nov 9, 8:50 AM ET
Binance's gold-backed products recorded over $325 million in seven-day spot trading volume, the highest outside initial launch surges, with a single-day peak of $78 million on November 5 and cumulative volume exceeding $8 billion. Commodity-backed tokenized assets comprise nearly $6 billion of the $50 billion total tokenized assets market cap, gold dominant. The surge occurred as broader crypto markets weakened and spot gold stabilized near $4,000 per ounce after a >30% year-to-date decline. Read →
Hyperliquid traders move $23M into crude oil shorts amid price dips
Enna Lee · TokenPost · Tue, Nov 10, 2:21 AM ET
Two large Hyperliquid accounts shifted roughly $23 million toward bearish crude exposure, with one closing a $10.54 million Brent long and another opening $13.4 million in new WTI and Brent shorts while holding $43.7 million total short positions. The moves coincided with WTI and Brent perpetual contracts declining 1.3 to 1.8% over the prior 24 hours. Hyperliquid's on-chain oil perps continue to see substantial weekend and after-hours volume when traditional exchanges are closed. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil majors post strong Q3 earnings on high prices while Canadian oil sands consolidation and Exxon Venezuela MOU dominate deals.
Strathcona buys Greenfire in C$2.7 to 2.9B oil sands deal
Reuters · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
Strathcona Resources agreed to acquire Greenfire Resources in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at C$2.7 to 2.9 billion including debt. The deal expands Strathcona's Athabasca oil sands position and creates Canada's fourth-largest SAGD operator with over 3 billion barrels of 2P reserves. Read →
Exxon signs MOU with PDVSA to evaluate Venezuela upstream
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
ExxonMobil signed a non-binding MOU with PDVSA to assess upstream oil opportunities, a potential return nearly two decades after expropriation. Any investment requires stable policies and competitive returns; no specific projects disclosed. Read →
Occidental beats Q3 estimates on higher oil prices
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Occidental Petroleum posted Q3 adjusted profit of $1.91 per share, beating estimates, as realized prices rose 32.6% to $85.91/bbl. Production fell 2.6% to 1.43 mmboepd amid Gulf of Mexico curtailments and maintenance. Read →
Equinox Gold posts record Q3 revenue of $1B after Orla deal
GlobeNewswire · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
Equinox Gold reported Q3 gold production of 237,019 ounces and record revenue of $1.0 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $533 million. Results include two months from the Orla Mining combination; company remains on track for 2026 guidance. Read →
Hemlo Mining reports Q3 revenue of $135.5M
PR Newswire · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Hemlo Mining posted Q3 revenue of $135.5 million from 32,424 gold ounces sold at $4,234/oz average price. Attributable production reached 25,652 ounces with operating cash flow of $54.6 million. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · China extends US tariff truce and rare earth export controls by two months ahead of Trump-Xi APEC meeting.
Canada extends critical minerals tax credits to 2032.
The Northern Miner / Mining Association of Canada · Thu, Nov 6, 2026
Canada's federal budget proposes extending the 15% Mineral Exploration Tax Credit and 30% Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit through March 31, 2032, at a cost of C$956 million over five years, and adds antimony to the higher-rate credit. It also allocates C$424.4 million over four years to renew the Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy, plus funding for geoscience and supply-chain infrastructure. The measures support exploration and processing of battery and defense-critical minerals amid global competition. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
US gas falls below $4/gal first time since July
X / multiple traders · Tue, Nov 10
Traders on X under #OOTT are highlighting the drop in US gasoline prices below $4/gallon, the first time since July, offering pump relief though still elevated seasonally. The move follows softer oil prices and is tied to refining capacity constraints limiting faster diesel relief. It signals easing consumer energy costs amid broader energy market weakness. Read →
China Oct crude imports hit 9.92 mbpd
X / multiple traders · Tue, Nov 10
#OOTT traders are discussing China's October crude imports surging to 9.92 mbpd from 9.06 mbpd in September, though below prior-year levels. The data points to resilient Asian demand despite global oil price weakness and geopolitical shifts. It supports views that demand fundamentals remain supportive for crude even as prices slide. Read →
US distillate stocks at 23-year low
X / multiple traders · Tue, Nov 10
Oil traders on X flag US distillate inventories hitting a fresh 23-year low for the week ended Nov 6, keeping middle-distillate cracks elevated despite seaborne supply signals of potential easing. Tight stocks underscore strength in diesel and heating oil markets amid refinery issues and seasonal demand. The data highlights ongoing tightness in refined products even as crude softens. Read →
Russia doubles India thermal coal imports share
X / multiple traders · Tue, Nov 10
Commodity watchers note Russia doubling its share of India's thermal coal imports to 8.2%, reflecting shifting trade flows amid global energy dynamics. The increase comes as India seeks affordable supply options. It points to evolving coal market geopolitics and competition with other exporters. Read →
ADNOC cuts Dec OSPs for Murban and others
X / multiple traders · Tue, Nov 10
#OOTT participants are reacting to ADNOC's December OSP cuts, including $7/bbl for Murban, $4 for Das, and others, signaling efforts to maintain competitiveness in a softening crude market. The adjustments follow recent price weakness and aim to support exports. Traders see it as a key signal for Middle East crude pricing going forward. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Nat gas futures down 20% this year after 100% Q1 gain
US natural gas futures already down roughly 20% this year after a 100% Q1 gain, raising pump-then-dump contagion risks. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces the end of the Iran blockade by March 31, 2027
69%
+7pp w/w
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
10%
-2pp w/w
WTI tops its $147 record by March 31, 2027
16%
-13pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire agreement would open the way to sanctions relief on Russian crude, diesel and pipeline gas, bearish for Brent, European diesel cracks and TTF. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027
36%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
8%
-4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
88%
+15pp w/w
US recession by end of 2027
28%
-4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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