The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA · Podcast · Kickers · Archive
Monday, November 9, 2026
Prefer audio only? Listen here.
Prefer longer? Listen to the 7-minute version.
Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,438
+0.5%
+36 |
Dollar Index
101.83
-0.5%
-0.47 |
EUR/USD
1.1194
+0.5%
+0.0051 |
US 10Y Yield
4.859
+2.2 bp
|
Last price as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:35 AM ET. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent $96.89, down $1.43 (-1%) and WTI $89.80, down $1.03 (-1%). This follows Brent and WTI posting their biggest weekly drop since April 2020 last week (Brent down more than 16%).
The oil market seems to be pricing in that following the US midterms (Nov 3) Trump will not escalate in Iran. However, he has until Jan 3 before any actual change of control. Also there are reports that Trump called off a resumption of bombings at the last minute Friday Nov 6.
Trump Sunday said further major strikes are “highly unlikely” if negotiations produce substantial progress. Rubio later Sunday said Iranian demand unacceptable.
Meanwhile tankers continue to be hit daily but oil flows are getting through at or above pre-Feb levels. Which is obviously negative for prices.
Propane up $0.025 (+2%) on seasonal winter heating demand, increased exports, and tightening US inventories ahead of peak season.
N-Butane up $0.031 (+2%) on strong Asian import demand pulling US cargoes and winter gasoline blending needs tightening Europe.
Copper up $205 (+1%) on signs of tightening supply in China with record import premiums and sharp drops in Shanghai exchange inventories.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $1.17 (+1%) on lingering winter supply risks and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf supporting prices despite milder weather forecasts.
Silver up $0.66 (+1%) on lower oil prices easing inflation concerns and supporting safe-haven demand.
Kicker: Saxo Bank sees Brent settling in $70 to 90/bbl range even if West Asia tensions ease, supported by inventory rebuild (Saxo Bank, Nov 8).
The oil market seems to be pricing in that following the US midterms (Nov 3) Trump will not escalate in Iran. However, he has until Jan 3 before any actual change of control. Also there are reports that Trump called off a resumption of bombings at the last minute Friday Nov 6.
Trump Sunday said further major strikes are “highly unlikely” if negotiations produce substantial progress. Rubio later Sunday said Iranian demand unacceptable.
Meanwhile tankers continue to be hit daily but oil flows are getting through at or above pre-Feb levels. Which is obviously negative for prices.
Propane up $0.025 (+2%) on seasonal winter heating demand, increased exports, and tightening US inventories ahead of peak season.
N-Butane up $0.031 (+2%) on strong Asian import demand pulling US cargoes and winter gasoline blending needs tightening Europe.
Copper up $205 (+1%) on signs of tightening supply in China with record import premiums and sharp drops in Shanghai exchange inventories.
Dutch TTF European nat gas up $1.17 (+1%) on lingering winter supply risks and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf supporting prices despite milder weather forecasts.
Silver up $0.66 (+1%) on lower oil prices easing inflation concerns and supporting safe-haven demand.
Kicker: Saxo Bank sees Brent settling in $70 to 90/bbl range even if West Asia tensions ease, supported by inventory rebuild (Saxo Bank, Nov 8).
Drivers and the Kicker house view are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Houthi strike damages Aramco Riyadh tower
Bloomberg · Sun, Nov 8, 8:00 PM ET
A Houthi attack damaged an administrative building at Saudi Aramco's Riyadh headquarters with falling shrapnel from intercepted missiles, blowing out windows across multiple floors with no injuries reported. The strike marks an escalation in Houthi campaigns against Saudi oil infrastructure amid the broader Middle East conflict. Read →
Oil extends biggest weekly drop since 2020
Bloomberg · Sun, Nov 8, 11:03 PM ET
Brent crude futures fell toward $97 a barrel, extending losses of more than 16% last week, as traders weighed diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict against fresh regional attacks. Crude has tumbled from a six-month high at the end of October following the Democratic midterm sweep. Read →
Gold climbs as oil retreat, stocks rebound
Bloomberg · Sun, Nov 8, 11:40 PM ET
Gold rose as much as 1.6% to above $4,130 an ounce, erasing Friday's decline, as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns and a recovery in Asian stocks reduced selling pressure on the metal. The move follows last week's US midterm elections and comes amid bets on a December Fed rate hike after strong jobs data. Read →
Russia ships pig iron via Arctic route
Alice Hancock, Anastasia Stognei · Financial Times · Sat, Nov 7
Russia will export pig iron from its Arctic port of Murmansk for the first time in 30 years, rerouting cargoes away from Ukrainian strikes in the Black Sea. The trial shipment of 65,000 tonnes follows increased cargo volumes at the northern port amid Black Sea disruptions. Read →
US warns China on Busan rare earths deal
Demetri Sevastopulo · Financial Times · Fri, Nov 6
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng that Beijing must immediately implement commitments under the Busan trade pact, especially on rare earths, critical minerals and agricultural purchases. The warning comes ahead of expected Trump-Xi meetings. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
3. Energy Transfer sanctions $1.6bn South Mississippi pipeline project Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Nat Gas 4NGL/LPG & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 1Coal 2Agriculture 4Fertilizers 2Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 2On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 4Regulation & Government 2Social buzz 5Podcasts 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Brent slides toward $97/bbl as de-escalation hopes with Iran outweigh fresh tanker attacks and Houthi strikes on Aramco.
Cash WTI 93.38 -0.83 | Cash Brent 96.01 -1.54 | Cash Br–TI 2.63 -0.71 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
89.80 | -1.1% -1.03 |
+56.3% | +49.3% | +6.7% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
96.89 | -1.5% -1.43 |
+59.2% | +51.2% | +14.3% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.764 | -0.5% -0.013 |
+62.1% | +40.2% | +16.4% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.323 | -0.2% -0.009 |
+104% | +72.2% | +72.3% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
26.28 | +1.9% +0.48 |
+85.2% +12.09 |
+16.1% +3.64 |
+68.6% +10.70 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
91.74 | +0.7% +0.64 |
+190% +60.12 |
+103% +46.46 |
+334% +70.58 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
48.10 | +1.1% +0.54 |
+141% +28.10 |
+59.3% +17.91 |
+176% +30.66 |
JPMorgan sees 1.4M bpd global oil surplus in October
Reuters · Thu, Nov 6, 2026
JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million bpd in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year’s average. Global crude imports rose above 2025 levels while demand lags due to high prices; Gulf crude and condensate exports averaged 14 million bpd in October, or about 86% of pre-war levels. The Brent swaps curve shows a steep discount for this week’s delivery, signaling ample near-term physical supply. Read →
Oil steadies after steepest weekly drop since 2020
Bloomberg via Energy Connects · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Brent traded around $98 a barrel after the biggest weekly drop since April 2020. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio played down breakthrough chances, calling Iran’s demands unacceptable, while President Trump said further strikes were highly unlikely if talks progress. Iran-backed Houthis damaged a Saudi Aramco office building in Riyadh and a tanker was struck outbound through Hormuz. Read →
Tanker fires reported in Strait of Hormuz amid clashes
Reuters · Sun, Nov 8, 2026
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two oil tankers caught fire after hitting mines on unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz. The US said it disabled a commercial vessel trying to breach the blockade in the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia reported an Aramco administrative building in Riyadh damaged by falling debris from a Houthi attack, with no casualties. Read →
HSBC lifts Saudi Aramco output forecasts on export recovery
Reuters · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
HSBC raised its Q4 2026 Saudi Aramco crude production forecast to 8.3 million bpd from 6.3 million, citing faster-than-expected export recovery, and lifted its 2027 forecast to 9.8 million bpd from 8.8 million. October Saudi crude exports recovered to about 7 million bpd near pre-conflict levels. Recovering Middle East crude exports suggest supply disruptions from the Iran conflict have eased. Read →
Charts of the day
| 1 | PG crude loadings 7D avg Nov chartvia @LVision_Trading on X · 74 likesChart showing Persian Gulf crude oil loadings 7-day average firmly above 10mbd since early November, no pattern change |
| 2 | China coal consumption vs worldvia @nomadascalper on X · 102 likes |
| 3 | Uranium price and nuclear demand Jan-Oct 2026via @quakes99 on X · 81 likes |
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Henry Hub futures climb to eight-month high on record LNG feedgas and early cold snap.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
3.022 | +0.8% +0.024 |
-18.0% | -30.3% | -39.3% |
US gas futures hit 8-month high on LNG flows, cold.
World Energy News · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
December Henry Hub futures settled at $4.338/MMBtu, up 0.5% and touching $4.51 intraday, the highest since March. LSEG data showed LNG feedgas averaging 17.7 bcfd in November, up from 16.7 bcfd in October, while Lower 48 production rose to 109.1 bcfd. Demand including exports is forecast to jump to 119.3 bcfd this week before easing, tightening the near-term balance despite 4% above-normal storage. Read →
China curbs LNG buys as domestic gas prices fall.
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
China’s national average trucked LNG price fell to the equivalent of $21.97/MMBtu, about $9.70 below JKM futures. Weak domestic prices are reducing the world’s top importer’s appetite for seaborne cargoes, potentially freeing volumes for Europe and other buyers ahead of winter peak demand. Read →
US LNG exports hit record high in November.
World Energy News · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
US LNG exports reached an all-time monthly high of 10.9 million metric tonnes in November, up from 10.1 mmt in October. Cheniere shipped 4.6 mmt and Venture Global 3 mmt; feedgas demand hit a record 18 bcfd, topping 19 bcfd last week, with Europe taking 70% of cargoes. Read →
EIA: Lower 48 storage at 3,801 Bcf after +77 build.
EIA · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Working gas inventories rose 77 Bcf to 3,801 Bcf for the week ended Oct 30, 54 Bcf above the five-year average and 109 Bcf below year-ago levels. The build was larger than normal for the period, keeping the market comfortably supplied heading into the heating season. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
Sponsored · Kpler
How much oil is moving, in real time
With Hormuz and the Red Sea redrawing trade routes minute by minute, you need the quickest, most reliable source of truth. Kpler tracks commodity cargoes and the vessels carrying them. You can see exports, imports, floating storage and more as they develop in real time.
Kpler covers oil, products, gas, and dry bulk. Pair flows with refinery runs, inventories and freight analytics, and the story behind a price move becomes visible before the market has priced it in.
| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settles at 115.8¢/gal (+2.2%) on Nov 6 as US stocks draw 1.6 MMbbl below year-ago levels for first time since Oct 2025.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.302 | +0.7% +0.002 |
+27.4% | +12.7% | -27.0% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.158 | +2.2% +0.025 |
+87.6% | +83.2% | -18.4% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.888 | +1.7% +0.031 |
+153% | +123% | +16.3% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.841 | -0.7% -0.012 |
+137% | +110% | +13.5% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.039 | +0.1% +0.001 |
+73.9% | +64.7% | +6.5% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 10 | unch | +11 | +12 | +2 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 88 | +2 | +60 | +65 | -8 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -627 | -10 | -322 | -294 | -188 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -258 | +1 | -91 | -46 | -238 |
| C5 as % WTI | 95 | +1 | +10 | +9 | unch |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
US LPG export expansions near 1 MMb/d, easing terminal fee swings.
Emily Carter · World Ports Organization · Sun, Nov 8, 2026
Enterprise and peers are adding over 1 MMb/d of new US LPG export capacity through 2028, including Enterprise’s 300 Mb/d Houston Ship Channel expansion due Q4 2026 and Neches River Phase 2 already ramping. Enterprise SVP Tyler Cott noted the buildout will allow the market to absorb volumes with less volatility in terminal fees and lower rates than recent years, providing Asian importers greater supply security. Read →
LYB flags higher NGL feedstock costs squeezing Q4 ethylene margins.
World Ports Organization · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
LyondellBasell said US NGL prices (ethane up 24% QoQ to 30¢/gal, propane +41%, butane +56%) are raising feedstock costs and will compress ethylene margins in the short term. Ethane exports should keep rising with new VLECs and Chinese demand, while two new US fractionators (ONEOK Medford and Targa Frac 12) due Q4 will add ethane supply; the company uses 75 to 80% ethane in North American crackers. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF rises 2%+ to €87/MWh as EU storage hits record-low 72.7% with heavy withdrawals; JKM holds near $31.50/MMBtu.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
86.76 | +1.4% +1.17 |
+209% | +180% | +19.9% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
28.46 | +1.4% +0.38 |
+209% | +180% | +19.9% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.49 | -0.2% -0.08 |
+228% | +182% | -0.9% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sat, Nov 7
EU gas storage is 72.7% full, 823 TWh in store, 16.8 points below the five-year average for this date and 10.0 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 59.2%, 29.6 points below its five-year average and 15.7 points below a year ago. LNG terminals are 48.9% full and sent out 3,917 GWh, 10% less than the day before.
EU full 72.7% -0.33 pts d/d | Year ago 82.7% | 5-yr avg 89.5% same date |
Germany 59.2% | Year ago 75.0% | 5-yr avg 88.8% same date |
Source: GIE AGSI+ and ALSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Qatar Ras Laffan damage points to months-long LNG outage
EMSNow / Montel · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
Severe damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex will likely keep output curtailed for months even after any Hormuz reopening, per WoodMac analysts. TTF front-month surged as much as 17% intraday to EUR 74/MWh, its highest since January 2023, with forwards also pricing in sustained risk. Prolonged Qatari shortfalls tighten global LNG balances and keep European buyers competing fiercely for Atlantic cargoes. Read →
EU storage at 72.7% full, lowest on record for date
Ben Aris · bne IntelliNews · Sat, Nov 8, 2026
EU underground storage stood at 73.4% on Nov 5 and fell further to 72.7% by Nov 7 to 8, the lowest seasonal level since records began in 2011, with net withdrawals accelerating sharply. Germany flipped to heavy drawdown while multiple countries followed; the bloc is entering winter with 14 to 18% below the five-year average. Record-low inventories plus ongoing LNG supply risks from the Middle East underpin TTF support. Read →
JKM rebounds to high $31s; TTF falls then stabilizes
JOGMEC Journal · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
JKM for December fell early in the week to mid-$29s on de-escalation hopes but rebounded to high $31s by Nov 6 amid persistent supply tightness and cautious buying. TTF (December) dropped sharply mid-week on lower geopolitical premiums and higher European regas volumes before closing the week around $28/MMBtu. EU storage at 73% on Nov 6 was 12.6 points below year-ago and 18.6 points below the five-year average, keeping the market supported. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · European day-ahead prices surge to €334-€346/MWh on wind collapse; French peaks top €600/MWh.
European power prices surge above €600/MWh on wind slump.
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
European day-ahead prices hit €334.12/MWh in France and €345.64/MWh in Germany on EPEX SPOT Monday, the highest French level since December 2022, with some German evening quarter-hours exceeding €600/MWh. A sharp drop in wind output across northwest Europe, forecast to stay low through Wednesday, forced greater reliance on gas-fired generation amid already elevated natural gas prices. The UK grid operator warned of a potential 1.4 GW shortfall Monday morning, underscoring how renewable lulls tighten power markets. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China's northern port thermal coal indices rebounded 3 yuan/t to 1,018 yuan/t on Nov 6 amid restocking and tight high-CV supply.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
133.80 | -0.2% -0.25 |
+37.3% | +38.3% | -14.2% |
| Newcastle $/t |
141.00 | -0.1% -0.10 |
+33.3% | +24.0% | -13.0% |
China thermal coal rebounds at ports and pitheads
Sxcoal · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
Northern port indices rose on Nov 6 with CCI 5500 up 3 yuan/t to 1,018 yuan/t as tight high-CV supply and firmer mine-mouth offers lifted sentiment. Sanxi mine output fell 0.8% week-on-week with capacity utilisation at 89.38%. NDRC said winter supply is sufficient with 36 days of plant stocks, supporting winter demand expectations. Read →
Met coal softens as China mine restarts ease squeeze
BigMint Bureau · BigMint · Sun, Sep 28, 2026
Australian premium hard coking coal fell to $273.60/t FOB as Chinese buying slowed after mine restarts narrowed the supply deficit to 0.13 mnt in September. Mongolian imports rose sharply, cutting seaborne needs, while PCI prices strengthened on coke substitution demand despite weak steel margins. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · USDA lifts season-average price forecasts for corn, wheat, soybeans and cotton in latest WASDE.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
443 | +0.3% +2 |
+0.6% | +3.1% | -20.1% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
589 | -0.4% -2 |
+16.2% | +9.9% | -24.3% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,197 | +0.2% +3 |
+16.1% | +7.2% | -0.3% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
18.27 | +0.2% +0.03 |
+21.7% | +28.7% | -8.2% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
278.2 | -0.7% -1.9 |
-20.2% | -32.9% | +35.1% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,191 | +0.7% +36 |
-14.4% | -14.9% | +113% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
79.76 | +0.8% +0.65 |
+23.7% | +23.6% | -33.4% |
USDA raises season-average prices for wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton.
Oliver Ward · Agri-Pulse · Thu, Nov 6, 2026
The USDA raised its 2025 to 26 season-average farm price for wheat by 5 cents to $5 per bushel, corn by 5 cents to $4.15 per bushel, soybeans by 10 cents to $10.30 per bushel, and cotton by 1 cent to 61 cents per pound in the latest WASDE report. The agency cited expectations for a seasonal price rise in coming months. The updates reflect tighter supply-demand balances despite record or near-record production levels for several crops. Read →
Soybeans and corn futures rise ahead of Tuesday USDA report; wheat falls.
Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson · Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Chicago soybean futures rose 0.31% to $11.97 to 1/2 a bushel and corn edged 0.06% higher to $4.41 to 3/4 a bushel on Monday as traders positioned ahead of the November 10 WASDE. Wheat fell 0.25% to $5.89 to 3/4 a bushel near a four-month low amid prospects for resumed Black Sea grain exports and upcoming US-Russia-Ukraine talks. Modest Chinese soybean purchases provided limited support against harvest pressure. Read →
Corn managed money turns net short; wheat commercials net long.
Ag Optimus · Sun, Nov 8, 2026
As of November 3, managed money flipped to a net short position of 22,900 corn contracts after shedding nearly 79,000 contracts in a week. Wheat commercials held a net long stance while corn and soybean prices continued declining toward multi-month lows ahead of the November 10 WASDE. The positioning shift highlights speculative bearishness in corn amid ample supplies. Read →
Cocoa futures mixed; London rises while New York falls amid stocks overhang.
CocoaIntel · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
New York cocoa December settled $26 lower at $5,155 per ton while London recovered modestly after hitting one-month lows. Exchange stocks reached their highest in 2 to 1/2 years, muting El Niño-related crop concerns in Ivory Coast, Ghana and Ecuador. Sluggish demand growth weighed on prices despite smaller expected harvests in top producers. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Sulfur costs at $1,000+/t and elevated European gas prices above €100/MWh squeeze phosphate and nitrogen margins, with Nutrien posting weak Q3 results amid production cuts.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,732 | -0.5% -9 |
-1.0% | +3.9% | -25.4% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
469.00 | +0.3% +1.50 |
+15.1% | +15.4% | -44.6% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
425.25 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+10.0% | +8.7% | -45.4% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
795.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+27.2% | +8.5% | +9.3% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Nutrien misses Q3 estimates on sulfur costs, will close Florida plant
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4, 5:41 PM ET
Nutrien reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $1.31 billion but missed estimates, with phosphate EBITDA plunging 93% to $8 million due to sulfur costs hitting $939 per tonne. The company will shut its higher-cost White Springs Florida phosphate facility in Q2 2027 after a strategic review and has completed closure of its Trinidad nitrogen plant over gas supply issues. Potash volumes hit near-record levels with full-year guidance raised to 14.3 to 14.8 million tonnes, while nitrogen guidance rose to 9.3 to 9.7 million tonnes. Read →
European gas tops €100/MWh, pressuring ammonia output
Dmitry Savinsky · Fertilizer Daily · Mon, Nov 2, 9:00 AM ET
Europe’s TTF natural gas benchmark exceeded €100/MWh on October 28, the highest since December 2022 and roughly triple pre-Middle East conflict levels, raising feedstock costs for ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production. Producers including Yara and AGF Nitrogen have already curtailed output, with further shutdowns possible as high prices and weak demand squeeze margins. The spike compounds existing pressures from Strait of Hormuz disruptions on global supply. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Shanghai copper spot premiums pull back sharply on imported arrivals and supplier selling.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
13,956 | +1.5% +205 |
+12.4% | +24.4% | +44.5% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,264 | +0.6% +78 |
+12.3% | +31.9% | +46.1% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,118 | +0.6% +19 |
+4.8% | +16.9% | +12.2% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,364 | -0.3% -12 |
+12.0% | +20.6% | +0.8% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,295 | +0.3% +48 |
-3.8% | +8.7% | -18.8% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,132 | -0.3% -5 |
-3.2% | -1.4% | -2.1% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
46,832 | +0.7% +324 |
+11.5% | +32.1% | +19.2% |
Shanghai copper premiums drop 240 yuan/mt on arrivals, selling.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Nov 9, 1:38 PM ET
SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums in Shanghai averaged 2,375 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt day-over-day amid concentrated imported arrivals and aggressive supplier selling. SHFE 2611 contract traded near 107,650 yuan/mt with strong backwardation; social inventories remain near historic lows at 33,000 mt in Shanghai. The pullback signals marginal supply relief but persistent tightness ahead of mid-November delivery. Read →
LME tin jumps 2.17% to $46,467; SHFE up 1.02%.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Nov 9, 8:56 AM ET
LME 3M tin settled at $46,467/mt (+2.17%), with spot-to-3M premium at $125/mt, the highest since Dec 2025. SHFE SN2612 night session closed at 349,830 yuan/mt (+1.02%). LME outperformance caps upside as November refined output is set to rise sharply and solder demand enters off-season. Read →
Ex-China aluminum supply recovery pressures prices.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Nov 9, 9:42 AM ET
SHFE aluminum closed at 23,180 yuan/mt (+0.43%); LME at $3,072.5/mt (+0.51%). Overseas resumptions in the Middle East and new Indonesian capacity accelerate supply recovery while LME stocks sit near two-decade lows at 229,000 mt. Domestic social inventories destocked further but October processing PMI fell to 48.9% as peak season ends. Read →
Huaxi Q3 zinc output falls; tin rises.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Nov 9, 1:24 PM ET
Guangxi Huaxi reported 9M zinc concentrate at 37,472.75 metal tons (-5.58% YoY) and refined zinc 17,708.21 tons (-21.35%). Tin concentrate rose 7.39% to 5,110.19 metal tons and refined tin +2.40% to 9,111.19 tons. Antimony ingot output surged 250.72% to 1,430.94 tons amid mixed base-metals results. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Port stocks build to 149 to 175 Mt as hot metal falls and mill rebar losses widen to 149 yuan/mt, capping iron ore rebound.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
91.2 | -0.5% -0.5 |
-9.4% | -7.0% | +5.1% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
399 | -0.2% -1 |
+1.3% | +3.9% | -37.2% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
416 | -0.8% -3 |
+0.9% | +1.4% | -38.9% |
SGX iron ore jumps 3.6% on short covering as port stocks accelerate build.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Nov 6, 2026
SGX most-traded contract rose $3.26 to $93.50/mt (+3.6% weekly) and DCE I2701 gained 1.3% to 691 yuan/mt on Thursday short-covering unwind, highest levels since late September. 35-port inventories hit 149.13 Mt (+1.08 Mt WoW) despite arrivals dropping 15.7% to 23.27 Mt, while 242-mill hot metal output fell to 2.357 Mt/day (-4,800 mt) and long-process rebar spot losses deepened to 148.54 yuan/mt. Faster restocking amid deepening mill losses and narrowing but still-elevated maintenance signals limited follow-through without coke cuts or hot-metal recovery. Read →
Imported iron ore margin flips positive to 2.36 yuan/mt on firmer spots.
World Ports Organization / SMM · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Average imported iron ore margin turned positive at 2.36 yuan/mt from a prior loss of 3.09 yuan/mt, driven by slightly lower freight and firmer port spot prices. October maintenance at 17 blast furnaces cut daily hot metal by 57,100 mt net, with winter environmental curbs expected to keep output falling; arrivals dropped sharply but stocks still built. Positive margin reflects short-term spot support from lower inflows, yet sustained demand recovery remains absent. Read →
China extends US tariff and port-fee suspensions another two months.
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
China's State Council extended the suspension of its additional 24% tariff on US imports and special port fees on US-linked ships for two months from November 10, keeping a 10% tariff in place. The move implements outcomes from the recent Washington leaders' meeting and maintains a stable policy environment for bilateral trade. No direct steel or iron-ore trade flow changes were detailed, but it signals continued de-escalation in broader China-US trade tensions. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold climbs above $4,100/oz on softer oil and China ETF buying as palladium reclaims $1,000.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,108 | +0.8% +33 |
-5.4% | -0.3% | +124% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
52.61 | +1.3% +0.66 |
-25.0% | +4.8% | +116% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,551 | +0.9% +14 |
-23.8% | -2.5% | +46.3% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,027 | +1.0% +10 |
-37.0% | -28.8% | -49.1% |
China state funds pour record $23B into ETFs
Bloomberg · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
China’s state-linked funds bought a record 156 billion yuan ($23 billion) worth of nine ETFs in the week to Nov. 6, topping prior peaks during trade-war turmoil. The surge supports broader risk-asset stabilization that eases selling pressure on gold and other precious metals. Strong state buying signals policy support amid equity weakness, aiding safe-haven demand for bullion. Read →
PBoC adds 25.8 tonnes gold in October
Bloomberg · Fri, Nov 7, 2026
The People’s Bank of China added 830,000 ounces (25.8 tonnes) of gold in October, its 24th straight month of purchases and the largest addition since September 2023. Year-to-date official buying reached 129 tonnes as prices fell below $4,000/oz. Persistent central-bank accumulation provides a floor for gold amid retail and speculative outflows. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China extends rare-earth export-control suspension to Jan 10, 2027, easing immediate supply pressure on magnets and defense inputs.
China extends rare earth export controls suspension to Jan 10.
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 9:13 AM ET
China's Ministry of Commerce announced a two-month extension of the suspension on October 2025 export controls covering additional rare earth elements, magnet equipment, and related items, pushing the deadline from Nov 10, 2026 to Jan 10, 2027. The move preserves part of the post-Xi-Trump summit trade truce and is paired with broader tariff and countermeasures pauses amid ongoing US-China negotiations ahead of an APEC summit. It provides short-term relief for non-Chinese magnet and defense supply chains while the core April 2025 licensing regime on dysprosium, terbium and other heavies remains in force. Read →
EU pursues rare earths supply chain in Sweden mine.
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 5:00 AM ET
Sweden's Malmberget iron ore mine is advancing rare earth extraction as part of Europe's push to build domestic processing capacity and reduce reliance on Chinese imports. The project highlights the EU's strategy to mirror China's integrated mine-to-magnet approach amid $1.5 trillion in estimated supply risks for critical technologies. Blasting operations now support both iron ore and the initial stages of rare earth separation for permanent magnets and other applications. Read →
MP Materials reports Q3 NdPr record and heavy rare earth start.
MarketBeat · Sat, Nov 7 (time unknown)
MP Materials posted Q3 NdPr oxide production of 1,018 metric tons, up 41% year-over-year, with sales volumes nearly doubling and adjusted profit beating estimates. The company confirmed commercial-scale dysprosium and terbium separation circuits have started operating, with qualified magnet shipments to GM expected in Q4 and fuller ramp in later years. It maintains $500 to 600 million annual capex guidance and targets over 5,000 tons annual NdPr production rate in 2027. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · BDI sinks to lowest in weeks as Capesize, Panamax and Supramax rates all tumble on softer iron ore demand.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.41M | +4.5% | +992% | 234.9 | 32.05 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$418k | -2.7% | +495% | 118.3 | 16.14 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$230k | +9.8% | +262% | 133.8 | 18.25 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$304k | -7.7% | +781% | 199.9 | 26.83 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$223k | -8.9% | +758% | 211.1 | 23.72 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$85k | +36.7% | +178% | 114.8 | 13.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -3.5% | +278% | 104.8 | 14.07 |
Report of Oct 29, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
BDI drops to lowest in over two weeks as all segments fall
Emily Carter · World Ports Organization · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index fell 58 points, or 2.19%, to 2,590 points on Tuesday, its lowest since October 19. Capesize rates dropped 3.58% to 3,821 points with daily earnings down $1,293 to $31,148, while Panamax and Supramax also declined. Weaker iron ore prices amid rising supply and sluggish Chinese demand weighed on the dry-bulk complex. Read →
Tanker and dry bulk rates ease across VLCC, Suezmax and clean segments
The Business Times · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
VLCC rates on Baltic routes headed down, with TD3C (Middle East Gulf/China) falling 47 points to WS1,220.63 for a TCE of $1.30 million/day. Suezmax and Aframax rates plunged across routes, including TD20 down 38% to WS430. Clean tanker and container rates also softened amid rebalancing supply. Read →
US Gulf to Asia VLCC rate hits record $81 million lumpsum
Linh Nguyen · World Ports Organization · Sun, Nov 8, 2026
A Sinokor-owned VLCC fixed US Gulf to Asia-Pacific at $81 million lumpsum, the highest since Argus began tracking in 2017. Hormuz attacks and shuttle operations have tightened effective VLCC supply and extended voyages, sustaining elevated Atlantic rates despite some spot softening elsewhere. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EU nears UK ETS linkage deal, tightening supply expectations and lifting EUA prices toward €87.
EU nears deal to link UK carbon market post-Brexit.
Bloomberg · Sun, Nov 8, 9:14 AM ET
EU and UK negotiators have finalized most terms for linking their emissions trading systems, including caps, supply controls and free allowances, with only financial derivatives rules outstanding. The pact, eyed for announcement at the Nov. 20 summit, would allow cross-border permit trading and eventually ease CBAM burdens. The news supports tighter effective supply in the combined market and has already narrowed UKA-EUA spreads. Read →
ICVCM pushes CCP standards into Article 6 rules.
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Nov 9, 12:01 AM ET
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market released a guidebook urging governments to adopt its Core Carbon Principles as the benchmark for national Article 6 frameworks. The push aims to raise credit quality and reduce fragmentation as countries prepare for COP31 negotiations. It could steer more buyer demand toward CCP-labeled voluntary credits and influence ITMO pricing. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Coinbase-Morpho gold-backed USDC loans launch drives tokenized gold utility onchain.
Coinbase adds PAXG collateral for USDC loans via Morpho on Base
Markets Media · Sun, Nov 9, 2026
Coinbase integrated a new USDC/PAXG market on Morpho Blue on Base, allowing eligible US users to borrow stablecoins against Paxos-issued tokenized gold (PAXG) without selling their position. This marks gold as Coinbase Borrow’s first non-crypto collateral, building on an existing integration holding roughly $3.4B collateral and $1.7B+ active loans. It demonstrates how tokenized assets can generate onchain yield and financing demand beyond spot holding, expanding utility for the $5B tokenized gold segment. Read →
Hyperliquid commodity perps hold $1.07B OI with $507M 24h volume
Perpys · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Trade.xyz-deployed HIP-3 markets on Hyperliquid show nine commodity perpetuals with $1.07B open interest (24.5% of HIP-3 total) and $506.8M notional 24h volume. Brent oil leads at $350.8M OI, followed by gold at $304.5M and silver at $199.9M; natural gas and WTI crude also active with 10 to 25x leverage and 24/7 trading. The data highlights sustained onchain liquidity for oil, gas and metals price discovery outside traditional exchange hours. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Refining M&A and LNG stake sales drive corporate activity as majors shed assets and independents expand capacity.
CVR buys two Marathon refineries for $4.2B, nearly doubles capacity.
Benzinga · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
CVR Energy agreed to buy Marathon Petroleum’s St. Paul Park (105 kb/d) and Mandan (72 kb/d) refineries plus marketing assets for $4.2 billion plus working capital. The deal lifts CVR’s crude throughput to 384 kb/d from 207 kb/d and is expected to generate $70 million in annual synergies. The acquired assets posted $1.2 billion EBITDA over the trailing twelve months. Read →
Blackstone group pays $3.1B for 49.9% of Mitsubishi’s LNG Canada holding.
Reuters · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Blackstone Credit & Insurance and Canadian funds (CPP Investments, OMERS, IMCO, PSP) agreed to invest $3.1 billion for a 49.9% non-controlling interest in Mitsubishi’s LNG Canada subsidiary. Mitsubishi retains control and its 2.1 mtpa offtake rights, which double post-Phase 2 expansion. The transaction values the stake at about $1.6 billion and funds further project growth. Read →
Riley Permian boosts oil output 38% YoY to 25.4 kb/d in Q3.
PR Newswire · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Riley Exploration Permian posted Q3 oil production of 25.4 kb/d, up 38% year-over-year, with total equivalent output at 42.0 Mboe/d. Operating cash flow rose 75% YoY to $111 million and total free cash flow reached $42 million. The company reduced debt 35% YoY to $245 million while advancing new infrastructure in the Permian. Read →
ConocoPhillips doubles Q3 profit to $4B, raises dividend 11%.
Connor Hart · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
ConocoPhillips reported Q3 adjusted earnings of $3.27 per share, beating estimates, with net income roughly doubling year-over-year to about $4 billion. Average realized prices jumped 32% to $61.40/boe despite lower production. The company raised its quarterly dividend 11% to 93 cents per share and guided Q4 output at 2.32, 2.36 million boe/d. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · China extends rare earth export controls suspension to Jan 10, prolonging US-China trade truce on critical minerals.
BIS clarifies Section 232 metals tariffs exclude non-metal items.
Brett Fortnam · Inside U.S. Trade · Mon, Nov 9
The Bureau of Industry and Security issued a technical correction to an April 2026 proclamation, clarifying that products without covered metals or derivatives fall outside the 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper. The move addresses scope issues in the full-value assessment method. It provides clarity for importers of non-metal goods while the broader metals tariff regime remains in place. Read →
Ontario suspends US electricity surcharge amid tariff threat.
Inside U.S. Trade · Mon, Nov 9
Ontario Premier Doug Ford agreed to suspend a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the US following talks with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The move came after President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% from 25% in response. A White House statement indicated the scheduled Canadian metals tariffs would be set at 25%. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
ME exports near pre-war levels as Brent drops over 17% to $97
X / multiple traders · Mon, Nov 9
Traders on X highlight October Middle Eastern oil exports nearing pre-conflict volumes amid weak demand and rising supply. Brent crude has fallen sharply, over 17% to around $97/bbl. Discussions focus on mounting oversupply risks for the energy market. Read →
QatarEnergy stakes Chevron Namibia offshore block
X / @staunovo · Mon, Nov 9
Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo reports QatarEnergy acquiring a stake in a Chevron-held offshore oil block in Namibia. Traders see this as expansion into African oil hotspots. The move signals continued interest in upstream opportunities despite global oil volatility. Read →
Eni seeks contractors for 6,100 km² Libya seismic
X / @AxiomEnergyMP · Mon, Nov 9
Axiom Energy Partners shares Eni's prequalification for 6,100 km² of 3D and 3,000 line-km of 2D offshore seismic in Libya. Oil traders discuss potential contract winners and renewed interest in Libyan exploration. Activity points to stabilizing North African energy sector. Read →
Agricultural commodities breaking down with new lows across grains and softs
X / multiple traders · Sun, Nov 8
BabyFish and other traders note soybeans, wheat, corn, cattle, coffee, cocoa and sugar under pressure with fresh lows. The path of least resistance appears lower amid positioning for US Black Sea talks. Retail and professional accounts flag continued downside in ag futures. Read →
Lean hogs -9.3%, sugar -5.7%, soybean oil -5.4% in week
X / @quant_reports · Sun, Nov 8
Quant Reports posts weekly ag futures performance with lean hogs, sugar and soybean oil leading declines. Cotton was the lone gainer while metals like gold and silver rose. Traders review COT positioning and price action across the complex. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
CPM Group on gold/silver bull and oil physicals
Jeff Christian (CPM Group) on The KE Report podcast · Sat, Nov 7
Gold and silver poised to resume secular bull market on turmoil and private demand. Watch/Listen →
Rory Johnston Clear Commodity Network oil talks
Rory Johnston (Oil Ground Up / Commodity Context) on Clear Commodity Network · Recent (Oct-Nov window)
Institutional oil and gas market analysis from Rory Johnston and guests on physical flows and geopolitics. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces the end of the Iran blockade by March 31, 2027
68%
+4pp w/w
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
8%
-4pp w/w
WTI tops its $147 record by March 31, 2027
18%
-10pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire agreement would open the way to sanctions relief on Russian crude, diesel and pipeline gas, bearish for Brent, European diesel cracks and TTF. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027
36%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
8%
-6pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
77%
+6pp w/w
US recession by end of 2027
28%
-4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Paid listings · list your event
Commodity & Energy Trading Week APAC · Mar 3-4 · Singapore
Commodity Trading Week Europe · May 19-20 · London
Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe free.
The cash price of physical crude globally, real‑time live even on weekends.
Prism is Morgan’s service providing free real‑time cash prices for physical crude oil, refined products, freight, natural gas and more. See today’s prices.
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe
One sponsor per issue. Ask us about a future month →
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe