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Saturday, November 7, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is Friday's session, color is since Friday's settle, with WTI, Brent and nat gas live onchain through the weekend.
Live on this page: the onchain tiles, their charts and Prism cash prices refresh every minute.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,402
+0.3%
+19 |
Dollar Index
102.28
-0.02%
-0.02 |
EUR/USD
1.1143
-0.7%
-0.0075 |
US 10Y Yield
4.859
+2.2 bp
|
Friday's settlements; except live weekend prices for WTI, Brent and US nat gas from 24/7 on chain trading as of Sat, Nov 7, 5:36 AM ET. Click here for updated live weekend prices on the Commodity News web page. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude down slightly this morning (live Saturday on chain trading) with no weekend escalation in Iran yet. Brent settled Friday at $98.32 and WTI at $90.83, with the Brent-WTI spread at $7.49.
Dutch TTF European nat gas settled down $5.09 (-6%) Friday on hopes of faster de-escalation in the Iran conflict after US midterm results and potential increased LNG flows through Hormuz.
Newcastle coal (Aussie benchmark for Asia) down $3.85 (-3%) Friday on broader energy complex weakness.
Palladium down $27 (-3%) on profit-taking after recent rebound and weaker tech/AI demand sentiment.
Tin down $1152 (-2%) on AI stock rout and concerns over data center capital expenditure outlook.
API2 Rotterdam coal down $3.25 (-2%) tracking the slide in European energy benchmarks and Newcastle coal prices.
Kicker: Saxo Bank sees current copper price setback as temporary amid physical tightness in China (Saxo Bank, Nov 6).
Dutch TTF European nat gas settled down $5.09 (-6%) Friday on hopes of faster de-escalation in the Iran conflict after US midterm results and potential increased LNG flows through Hormuz.
Newcastle coal (Aussie benchmark for Asia) down $3.85 (-3%) Friday on broader energy complex weakness.
Palladium down $27 (-3%) on profit-taking after recent rebound and weaker tech/AI demand sentiment.
Tin down $1152 (-2%) on AI stock rout and concerns over data center capital expenditure outlook.
API2 Rotterdam coal down $3.25 (-2%) tracking the slide in European energy benchmarks and Newcastle coal prices.
Kicker: Saxo Bank sees current copper price setback as temporary amid physical tightness in China (Saxo Bank, Nov 6).
Drivers and the Kicker house view are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
The week
Biggest moves of the week: Dutch TTF -17.7%, Brent -16.4%, WTI Crude -12.8%, Silver +5.8%, Gold +4.5%.
| 📑 | Commodity Research Reports →6 reports picked for the weekend |
| 🎧 | Commodity Podcasts →5 episodes for the weekend |
| 📈 | Commodity Forward Curves →WTI, Brent, 3-2-1 crack and Henry Hub |
| 📅 | Week Ahead Commodity Diary →4 dated events in the week ahead |
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Trafigura buys copper in Asia amid China supply crunch
Bloomberg · Fri, Nov 7, 2026
Trafigura Group has been buying large volumes of copper to boost sales into Asia as local supplies run low, adding to a scramble that pushed regional spot premiums to record highs. The Singapore-based trader approached producers and traders over the past two weeks for November-December volumes. Read →
UN: Global food prices dip 1.2% in October
Giulia Petroni · Wall Street Journal · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
The UN FAO food price index averaged 133.9 points in October, down 1.2% from September but up 5.9% year-over-year. Cheaper grains, dairy and meat offset a sharp sugar rally from weather disruptions in producing regions. Read →
Bloomberg: Markets eased critical minerals crunch
Scott Lincicome · Bloomberg · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
BloombergNEF’s 2026 outlook shows nine of 10 transition metals on track for sufficient capacity through 2050, with graphite, platinum and steel shifting to surpluses. Earlier panic over shortages proved overblown despite subsidies and tariffs. Read →
Brazil prioritizes rare earths and copper in policy
Bloomberg · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Brazil approved its first list of 27 critical and strategic minerals under a new policy to attract investment and expand domestic processing. The move aims to reduce reliance on China and build local manufacturing capacity. Read →
FAO: Food prices fall 1.2% in October vs September
Reuters · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points in October, down from a revised 135.6 in September and 5.9% above a year earlier. Cereal, dairy and meat prices declined on weaker demand while sugar rose 6.6%. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 2US Nat Gas 4NGL/LPG & Petchems 3Global Nat Gas & LNG 1Power 2Coal 2Agriculture 1Fertilizers 1Base Metals 1Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 3Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Podcasts 1Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Brent settles near $98.32 after 13 to 17% weekly drop as de-escalation hopes outweigh tanker attacks.
Cash WTI 93.72 -0.48 | Cash Brent 96.83 -0.72 | Cash Br–TI 3.10 -0.24 |
LIVE Physical cash prices from Prism, live on weekend.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 LIVE |
90.69 | -0.2% -0.14 |
+58.2% | +51.1% | +10.9% |
| Brent Jan 2027 LIVE |
98.24 | -0.08% -0.08 |
+61.6% | +53.5% | +17.8% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.777 | +0.5% +0.013 |
+62.8% | +40.9% | +19.6% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.332 | -0.5% -0.020 |
+104% | +72.6% | +75.6% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
25.79 | +1.0% +0.25 |
+81.5% +11.58 |
+13.8% +3.14 |
+65.3% +10.19 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
91.10 | -1.3% -1.16 |
+188% +59.46 |
+101% +45.79 |
+320% +69.41 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
47.56 | -0.5% -0.22 |
+138% +27.54 |
+57.5% +17.36 |
+170% +29.93 |
LIVE: price and 1D live onchain since Friday's settle.
Oil slides below $100 on Iran outlook
Giulia Petroni and Farhan Rafid · Dow Jones / WSJ · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Front-month Brent fell 0.7% to $97.59 and WTI 0.5% to $89.98 on Friday, both tracking for nearly 14% weekly losses. Traders await Washington's next Iran move after Democratic midterm gains raised de-escalation hopes; Saudi Aramco cut December Arab Light OSP to Asia by $2 to a $7 discount versus Oman/Dubai. Read →
OPEC output nears pre-war levels on Saudi rebound
Bloomberg · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
OPEC crude production rose 930,000 bpd in October to 22.8 million bpd, or 88% of February levels, led by Saudi Arabia's rebound. Persian Gulf supplies recovered further with tanker flows resuming, pushing output toward pre-war norms amid ongoing regional disruptions. Read →
Charts of the day
| 1 | Global distillates balances chart Nov 2026via @LSREnergy on X · 54 likesChart of global distillates balances in deficit with ME flows at 55% pre-war and Russia runs declining |
| 2 | Copper stocks rise 36.7 kt to 1.083 Mtvia @Ole_S_Hansen on X · 90 likes |
| 3 | US renewable capacity additions 2027 recordvia @JavierBlas on X · 88 likes |
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · LNG feedgas hits near-record 21 Bcf/d, lifting Henry Hub futures above $3 amid mild weather and 77 Bcf storage build.
Cash Henry Hub 2.762 +0.008 |
LIVE Physical cash price from Prism, live on weekend.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 LIVE |
2.988 | -0.3% -0.010 |
-18.7% | -30.9% | -44.8% |
LIVE: price and 1D live onchain since Friday's settle.
Mild November pushes storage toward 3.9 Tcf peak before winter.
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Exceptionally mild early-November weather is expected to drive another week or two of above-average storage injections, potentially pushing Lower 48 inventories near 3.9 Tcf before the first net withdrawal. Analysts note that record LNG export growth raises the stakes for winter inventory levels, as a larger cushion may be needed to buffer against demand swings. The Oct. 30 EIA report showed a 77 Bcf injection to 3,801 Bcf, 54 Bcf above the five-year average. Read →
EIA sees 77 Bcf injection, widening five-year storage surplus.
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
The EIA reported a 77 Bcf Lower 48 storage injection for the week ended Oct. 30, missing the 80 to 81 Bcf consensus and lifting inventories to 3,801 Bcf. The build widened the surplus versus the five-year average to 54 Bcf while remaining 109 Bcf below year-ago levels. Another above-average injection is expected next week given persistently mild weather. Read →
Futures climb on record LNG feedgas and cooler forecast tweaks.
Reuters via MarketScreener / Energy Jobline · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
December NYMEX natural gas futures rose about 2% to near $3.00/MMBtu on Friday, supported by LNG feedgas flows on track for a daily record near 21 Bcf/d and minor upward revisions to late-November weather forecasts. Lower 48 output has eased from August peaks while LNG demand remains structurally strong. The contract posted a weekly gain despite the mild near-term demand backdrop. Read →
Spot prices rise as LNG demand holds and supply eases.
Kevin Dobbs · Natural Gas Intelligence · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Cash prices advanced for weekend and Monday delivery as new supply stayed near seasonal lows and LNG feedgas demand remained robust. Total demand readings showed improvement while production readings were mixed. The moves occurred against a backdrop of mild weather limiting heating demand but with LNG providing a firm floor. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settles at 115.8¢/gal (+2.2%) as Targa advances Train 14 frac amid rising Permian NGLs.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.302 | +0.7% +0.002 |
+27.4% | +12.7% | -29.3% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.158 | +2.2% +0.025 |
+87.6% | +83.2% | -15.8% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.888 | +1.7% +0.031 |
+153% | +123% | +18.6% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.841 | -0.7% -0.012 |
+137% | +110% | +15.7% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.039 | +0.1% +0.001 |
+73.9% | +64.7% | +8.0% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 10 | unch | +11 | +12 | +4 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 88 | +2 | +60 | +65 | +1 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -627 | -10 | -322 | -294 | -204 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -258 | +1 | -91 | -46 | -220 |
| C5 as % WTI | 94 | unch | +9 | +8 | -3 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Targa orders Permian plant gear, unveils Mont Belvieu Train 14 frac
RTTNews · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Targa announced a new 150 Mb/d NGL fractionator Train 14 at Mont Belvieu due online Q1 2029, lifting its hub capacity to 1.8 MMb/d, plus long-lead orders for additional Permian processing plants needed 2028 to 29. The moves respond to record Permian gas volumes (7.5 Bcf/d) and rising NGL supply feeding fractionation and exports. Read →
Energy Transfer sanctions $1.6B South Mississippi gas pipeline
World Ports Organization · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Energy Transfer reached FID on the 215-mile, 1.2 Bcf/d South Mississippi Pipeline (51% owned) for 2030 service and raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to $19.7 to 19.9B. NGL transportation, exports and fractionation volumes rose 6 to 9% YoY in Q3, with Frac X (200 Mb/d Mont Belvieu) and expanded Nederland ethane exports also advancing. Read →
Targa Q3 call details Train 14 frac and Permian growth
Adam Baker · RBN Energy · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Targa reported record Permian processing (7.5 Bcf/d) and NGL fractionation volumes (1.26 MMb/d), with Train 12 ramping full and Train 13 fully subscribed from startup. The company also detailed a 20-year ExxonMobil integrated midstream deal and Galena Park LPG export expansion to 625 Mb/d by Q3 2027. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF falls 5 to 6% to €85 to 87/MWh on mild weather and diplomacy hopes; JKM eases to $31.49/MMBtu with $3.77 arb premium.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
85.59 | -5.6% -5.09 |
+204% | +175% | +8.2% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
27.95 | -5.6% -1.66 |
+204% | +175% | +8.2% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.49 | -0.2% -0.08 |
+228% | +182% | -2.0% |
EU gas storage · gas day Thu, Nov 5
EU gas storage is 73.4% full, 831 TWh in store, 16.3 points below the five-year average for this date and 9.6 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 60.0%, 28.9 points below its five-year average and 15.3 points below a year ago. LNG terminals are 52.9% full and sent out 4,293 GWh, 8% more than the day before.
EU full 73.4% -0.35 pts d/d | Year ago 83.0% | 5-yr avg 89.7% same date |
Germany 60.0% | Year ago 75.3% | 5-yr avg 88.9% same date |
Source: GIE AGSI+ and ALSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Asian LNG prices ease near 4-year high amid Europe winter scramble
Energy Jobline · Sat, Nov 7, 2026
JKM eased to $31.40/MMBtu for December delivery in the week to Nov 6, down from a prior-week high near $32.50, the strongest level since late 2022. Europe’s TTF hovered near €86/MWh while storage sat at 74% full, well below seasonal norms, sustaining competition for flexible Atlantic cargoes. US and Nigerian arbitrages continue favoring Europe over Asia. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · ERCOT day-ahead prices surge 80%+ on Nov 7 as wind drops and South zone spikes to $166/MWh real-time overnight.
ERCOT day-ahead prices jump 80% for Nov 7 amid low wind.
Grid Status · Thu, Nov 6
ERCOT day-ahead 7x24 prices rose 80% to $35.66/MWh for Nov 7 from $19.86/MWh prior day as wind forecasts fell. Real-time prices in the South load zone hit $166/MWh overnight on Nov 5 while other zones traded near $20/MWh due to a binding constraint. On-peak day-ahead cleared $33.97/MWh, up 91%. Read →
FERC orders all six US RTOs/ISOs to reform large-load tariffs.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission · Thu, Nov 6
FERC issued show-cause orders to PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE and NYISO directing them to justify or revise tariffs governing data-center and large-load interconnections within 60 days. The move targets faster grid connections for AI-driven demand while protecting ratepayers and ensuring reliability. It builds on prior PJM co-location guidance and SPP’s High Impact Large Load process. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China winter energy supply confirmed adequate as mine restarts ease met coal squeeze and thermal prices edge up on restocking.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
134.05 | -2.4% -3.25 |
+37.6% | +38.6% | -7.9% |
| Newcastle $/t |
141.10 | -2.7% -3.85 |
+33.4% | +24.1% | -7.9% |
China met coke under pressure from mill margin push
Sxcoal · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Metallurgical coke prices held steady November 6 but face downside pressure from weak steel demand, mill losses, environmental curbs and spreading expectations of price cuts as buyers seek better margins. This softens demand for seaborne metallurgical coal as Chinese steelmakers prioritize lower-cost domestic or spot options. Read →
China port thermal coal edges higher on tight spots
Sxcoal · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Northern Chinese port thermal coal prices showed modest recovery November 6 on tighter high-calorific spot cargoes and firmer mine-mouth offers from winter restocking, though divided buyer sentiment and caution cap further gains. High-CV grades firmed while overall market remains range-bound amid improving domestic supply signals. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · USDA weekly export sales and FAO food price data drive grains lower amid ample US supply outlook.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
442 | +0.3% +2 |
+0.3% | +2.7% | -19.9% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
591 | -1.3% -8 |
+16.6% | +10.4% | -23.0% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,194 | +0.5% +6 |
+15.8% | +7.0% | +1.3% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
18.25 | +0.1% +0.01 |
+21.6% | +28.5% | -8.4% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
280.2 | +0.1% +0.1 |
-19.7% | -32.5% | +40.3% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,119 | -0.7% -36 |
-15.6% | -16.1% | +110% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
79.00 | -0.1% -0.11 |
+22.2% | +22.1% | -32.6% |
USDA: Soybean sales fall 44% week-over-week to 1.46M mt
Tony Dreibus · Agriculture.com · Fri, Nov 6
USDA reported soybean net sales of 1.46 million metric tons for the week ended Oct. 29, down 44% from the prior week, with China buying 873,900 tons. Corn sales totaled 1.29 million metric tons, little changed, while exports hit 1.03 million tons, up 86%. Wheat sales fell 37% to 538,000 metric tons. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · US ammonia hits $875/short ton as Trinidad supply cuts tighten nitrogen markets.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,736 | +0.1% +1 |
-0.7% | +5.6% | -27.3% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
469.00 | +0.3% +1.50 |
+15.1% | +15.4% | -43.8% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
425.25 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+10.0% | +9.4% | -43.4% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
795.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+27.2% | +8.5% | +9.3% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
US ammonia nears $875/short ton on Trinidad supply drop
Kim Clarksen · Fertilizer Daily · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Midwest ammonia prices have climbed to around $875 per short ton after rising more than 30% since late June. Ammonia imports from Trinidad fell about 34% this year amid gas shortages, with Nutrien shutting its Trinidad nitrogen operations indefinitely in October. The loss ripples through US supply chains as barge deliveries to farmers tighten ahead of peak autumn application. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China copper supply crunch drives Trafigura spot buying and record Shanghai premiums to 2,615 yuan/t.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
13,752 | -0.5% -71 |
+10.8% | +22.6% | +41.6% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,186 | -1.0% -144 |
+11.7% | +31.2% | +45.3% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,099 | +0.0% +1 |
+4.1% | +16.1% | +11.5% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,376 | -0.7% -24 |
+12.4% | +21.0% | +1.1% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,247 | +2.2% +348 |
-4.1% | +8.4% | -19.0% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,137 | +0.5% +10 |
-3.0% | -1.1% | -1.8% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
46,508 | -2.4% -1,152 |
+10.7% | +31.2% | +18.4% |
Nickel jumps on Indonesia crackdown, copper hits low
Reuters · Fri, Nov 6
LME three-month nickel rose 3.8% to $16,375 per ton after Indonesia’s forestry task force targeted companies linked to major ore trader Arif Kurniawan over alleged illegal forest operations. Copper fell 1.3% to $13,828.50 per ton, its lowest since July 31, as AI-related equity selling pressured demand expectations. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · SGX iron ore futures rose 3.6% weekly to $93.50/mt on short covering while 35-port stocks built 1.08Mt amid falling hot metal output.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
91.2 | -0.5% -0.5 |
-9.4% | -7.0% | +5.1% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
400 | +0.0% -0 |
+1.5% | +4.2% | -37.0% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
419 | +1.0% +4 |
+1.7% | +2.2% | -38.4% |
DCE iron ore futures close at 687.5 yuan/mt, down 0.51%.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
DCE most-traded I2701 contract closed at 687.5 yuan/mt, up 0.07% on the day after an initial rise then retreat; Qingdao port spot prices for mainstream products fell 3 yuan/mt on average with moderate trader activity and few mill enquiries. SGX near-month contract stood at $93.05/dmt. Port stocks continued building while arrivals dropped sharply, capping any sustained rebound. Read →
BHP, Baowu extend 5-year low-carbon steel MoU.
SteelRadar / BHP · Fri, Nov 6, 2026 (refreshed from Sep 23 announce
BHP and China Baowu renewed their five-year MoU on steel decarbonisation, focusing on modified blast furnace technologies using Pilbara ores to target at least 30% lower CO2 intensity (potentially >80% with carbon storage/renewables) and advancing DRI trials processed in Baowu's planned demonstration ESF. Builds on 2020 collaboration including hydrogen DRI trials achieving 50% lower CO2 intensity. Partnership covers trials, knowledge sharing and demonstration-scale applications across blast furnace and emerging pathways. Read →
China mandates export licences for select steel from Jan 1 2026.
SteelRadar / HKTDC / MOFCOM · Fri, Nov 6, 2026 (effective Jan 1)
China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will require export licences for certain steel products (hundreds of tariff codes covering pig iron, semi-finished, flats, longs, pipes etc.) from January 1 2026, based on export contracts and manufacturer quality certificates. No quantity caps or qualification restrictions; licences issued by MOFCOM and designated provincial/sub-provincial authorities to monitor flows, ensure quality and support industrial stability amid record exports and trade frictions. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Central banks bought 321t gold in Q3, ETFs added $2.7bn in October, lifting holdings to records amid price pullback.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,075 | -0.9% -39 |
-6.1% | -1.1% | +123% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
51.94 | -0.8% -0.43 |
-25.9% | +3.5% | +112% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,537 | +1.0% +15 |
-25.2% | -4.3% | +43.8% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,017 | -2.6% -27 |
-35.9% | -27.6% | -49.7% |
Global gold ETFs added $2.7bn in October led by Europe
World Gold Council · Fri, Nov 5, 2026
Physically-backed gold ETFs attracted $2.7 billion in net inflows during October, extending four straight months of buying and lifting global holdings by 19 tonnes to a record 4,275 tonnes. European funds led with $1.8bn, Asia added $1.3bn, while North America saw modest outflows of $512mn; year-to-date inflows total $41bn, the third-strongest on record. AUM fell 6% to $542bn due to lower gold prices, but the inflows highlight strategic demand despite the pullback. Read →
Gold, silver post weekly gains after midterms, oil drop
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Comex gold settled the week up 4.6% at $4,064.50/oz and silver rose 5.5% to $51.803/oz after Democrats' midterm sweep weakened the dollar and yields while oil prices fell on hopes for Middle East de-escalation. A stronger-than-expected October US jobs report (165k added) tempered some gains Friday but did not erase the rebound from prior lows near $3,880. The moves reflect reduced inflation pressures and safer-haven flows into the complex. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · MP Materials posts surprise Q3 profit on 94% NdPr sales surge and GM magnet qualification as Nov 10 China controls deadline looms.
MP Materials posts surprise Q3 profit on NdPr surge.
Henry Lazenby · MINING.COM · Fri, Nov 6, 5:09 PM ET
MP Materials reported an adjusted Q3 profit of $8.8 million after sales of neodymium-praseodymium rose 94% to 1,020 tonnes and production hit a quarterly record of 1,018 tonnes. The company completed magnet qualification with General Motors, enabling first commercial deliveries this quarter from its Texas Independence plant. It also expects Q4 NdPr sales of about 1,000 tonnes at roughly $100/kg plus $8/kg price-protection income under its DoD deal. Read →
US presses China on rare earths delivery ahead of talks.
Reuters · Fri, Nov 6, 12:53 PM ET
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer told Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng that Beijing must immediately deliver on Busan pact commitments for rare earths and critical minerals. US officials noted China has supplied only about two-thirds of pledged volumes, heightening pressure days before the Nov 10 legal expiry of suspended export controls. Read →
Solvay locks in Brazilian rare earth feedstock from Viridis.
Solvay · Tue, Nov 4
Solvay signed a binding offtake deal with Viridis for mixed rare earth carbonate from Brazil’s Colossus project covering neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium through 2034. Minimum volumes represent about 70% of expected capacity, with shipments starting 2028 and price floors on the four magnetic elements; Solvay will also license technology for on-site carbonate upgrading. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index climbs to 2,805 on Capesize strength, while crude tanker spot rates correct sharply post-US midterms.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.41M | +4.5% | +992% | 234.9 | 32.05 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$418k | -2.7% | +495% | 118.3 | 16.14 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$230k | +9.8% | +262% | 133.8 | 18.25 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$304k | -7.7% | +781% | 199.9 | 26.83 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$223k | -8.9% | +758% | 211.1 | 23.72 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$85k | +36.7% | +178% | 114.8 | 13.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -3.5% | +278% | 104.8 | 14.07 |
Report of Oct 29, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
Baltic Dry Index rises to 2,805 on Friday gains
Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index rose 65 points or 2.4% to 2,805 on Nov 6, its highest since mid-October. Capesize rates led with a 3.7% jump to 4,344, while Panamax added 2.4% to 2,003; Supramax slipped. The weekly gain reached 3.4% amid firmer larger-vessel demand for iron ore and coal cargoes. Read →
Crude tanker spot rates fall further after US midterms
Greg Miller · Lloyd's List · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax spot earnings continued declining this week after the US midterms, with West Africa-China VLCC TCE at $493k/day (down 35% from October peaks) and Atlantic midsize routes off even more. Rates remain multiples of breakeven and could rebound on any fresh Iran-related attacks, but the near-term correction is deepening as chartering slows. Read →
LNG carrier rates reach multi-month highs on winter demand
World Ports Organization · Sat, Nov 7, 2026
Atlantic two-stroke LNG carrier rates hit $61,500/day Tuesday (highest since late August 2024), up over 50% in a week, while Pacific rates reached $42,250/day. Tighter prompt tonnage from Egypt discharge delays and pre-winter demand is lifting earnings despite earlier seasonal softness. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs drop 3% weekly on equity sell-off and energy reversal as RGGI jumps 6% on short covering.
EUAs fall 3% weekly as equities and energy reverse bullish mood
Carbon Pulse · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
European carbon allowance prices posted their largest weekly decline in five months, falling 5.5% over four days amid a broad equity sell-off and sharp drops in energy markets. The reversal ended a cautiously bullish phase that had drawn investors back into EUAs. The move pressures near-term sentiment in the EU ETS despite structural tightening from shrinking supply. Read →
RGGI allowances surge 6% on short covering
Carbon Pulse · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
RGGI Allowances rose more than 6% on Friday with traders citing aggressive short covering as the driver. The move lifted prices to a four-month high and contributed to an 11% weekly gain. Stronger state-level compliance sentiment after US midterms supported the rally in the regional market. Read →
Argentina NDC unlocks Article 6 carbon markets
Carbon Pulse · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Argentina submitted its third Nationally Determined Contribution, opening participation in Paris Agreement Article 6 mechanisms. The update provides a pathway for projects including jurisdictional REDD+ to seek international buyers. It expands potential supply into voluntary and compliance carbon markets. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC guidance lets U.S. commodities firms invest in tokenized assets and use blockchain for records.
Hyperliquid Strategies files CFTC FCM application for U.S. perps.
Hassan Shittu · CoinCodex · Thu, Nov 6, 2026
Nasdaq-listed Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) disclosed a subsidiary applied to register as a CFTC futures commission merchant to carry U.S. client accounts for HIP-3 permissioned perpetual futures markets. The filing aligns with ICE's October deal to operate regulated perps on Hyperliquid infrastructure including commodities. PURR holds 38.9 million HYPE tokens. Read →
Hong Kong SFC floats tokenized gold ETF as next pilot.
The Blockhead · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
SFC executive director Elisa Ng said 17 tokenized retail products hold $1.3 billion AUM, with tokenized money market funds now trading on licensed platforms. She indicated a tokenized gold ETF may form the next pilot under the new Innovation Pathway. The framework aims to merge tokenized funds with digital currencies for better liquidity. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil majors report surging Q3 profits and hike dividends on higher crude prices amid M&A momentum.
ConocoPhillips Q3 profit doubles to $4B; lifts dividend 11%.
Reuters · Thu, Nov 6, 2026
ConocoPhillips posted Q3 adjusted earnings of $3.27 per share, beating estimates, with net income of $4 billion on 32% higher realized prices. Production fell to 2.3 million boepd but the company raised its quarterly dividend 11% to 93 cents and returned $3.4 billion to shareholders via buybacks and payouts. Read →
US upstream M&A hits $12.6B in Q3 as deals accelerate.
Reuters · Thu, Nov 6, 2026
US upstream oil and gas M&A deal value rose to $12.6 billion in Q3 from $11.5 billion prior quarter per Enverus. Private-equity exits led activity, with October seeing public E&P consolidation including EQT's $13.8 billion Range Resources acquisition. Total 2026 deal value reached $80.5 billion, exceeding last year. Read →
Parex Q3 production jumps on acquisition; declares dividend.
GlobeNewswire / Oil & Gas 360 · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Parex Resources reported Q3 production of 83,264 boe/d, up sharply from prior quarter due to full Frontera E&P integration. Net income reached $75 million with funds flow of $196 million; the company declared a Q4 dividend of C$0.385 per share. H2 guidance was updated amid higher capex. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US sanctions Canadian firms for Iran evasion; Brazil extends 12% oil export tax; US presses China on rare earths, ag buys in Busan deal.
US sanctions eight Canadian firms for Iran sanctions evasion
Reuters · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
US Treasury sanctioned eight Canadian money services firms in Ontario and British Columbia for facilitating transactions with sanctioned Iranian entities, including converting rials to digital assets and links to an alleged narcotrafficker. The firms are cut off from the US dollar system. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Canada cannot be a safe haven for such facilitators as Washington pressures Tehran. Read →
Brazil extends 12% crude oil export tax to Dec 31
Reuters · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
Brazil's foreign trade committee extended the 12% tax on crude oil exports until Dec 31 to maintain domestic diesel and fuel supplies amid Middle East conflict. The Finance Ministry requested the extension. The committee also created a working group on reciprocity with the US over prior US tariffs on Brazilian goods. Read →
US warns China must immediately meet Busan deal terms
Demetri Sevastopulo · Financial Times · Fri, Nov 6, 2026
US officials pressed China in a Friday call to fully and immediately deliver on Busan trade truce pledges for rare earth exports and other critical products. Bessent stressed concrete results and warned recent Chinese actions raise concerns. The truce, extended to Jan 10, faces pressure as Trump and Xi prepare to meet. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Iran reports oil tanker fire in Hormuz Strait
X / multiple traders · Sat, Nov 7
#OOTT traders are circulating Iranian media reports of an oil tanker igniting in the eastern Strait of Hormuz. The incident follows recent attacks and adds fresh geopolitical risk premium to crude after this week's sharp selloff on midterm results and de-escalation hopes. Discussions focus on whether it sustains elevated Brent/WTI levels or fades with diplomatic moves. Read →
Ukraine hits Russian oil refineries again
X / multiple traders · Sat, Nov 7
Zelenskiy statements on ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining are drawing trader attention in #OOTT. Posts link it to sustained supply disruptions and higher European product margins. Market participants cite it as a multi-quarter bullish factor for oil and refining stocks amid already tight balances. Read →
Belarus raises LPG export duties
X / @staunovo · Sat, Nov 7
Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo flagged Belarus raising export duties on LPG. #OOTT accounts are noting potential supply tightness for European buyers and knock-on effects for propane/butane pricing. The move comes as energy traders monitor Eastern European flows post-midterms. Read →
Pembina sees growth in Pacific Link oil pipeline
X / @staunovo · Sat, Nov 7
Pembina's comments positioning its Pacific Link oil pipeline stake as a key growth driver are circulating among Canadian energy traders. Discussions tie it to increased West Coast export capacity and longer-term crude flow optimism despite near-term price volatility. Read →
Uranium stocks rebound from 52-week lows
X / multiple traders · Sat, Nov 7
Uranium equities continued their slide to fresh lows earlier in the week but saw a decent Friday rebound. Retail and trader chatter on X and r/uranium links it to persistent long-term contract tightness and data-center demand, with spot near $92 to 93/lb and LT indicators at records. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Agri risk premium erodes post-midterms
Tracey Allen, J.P. Morgan on At Any Rate podcast · Thu, Nov 6
Risk premia have eroded in agriculture after midterm results. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces the end of the Iran blockade by December 31
41%
-3pp w/w
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
10%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire agreement would open the way to sanctions relief on Russian crude, diesel and pipeline gas, bearish for Brent, European diesel cracks and TTF. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
14%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
10%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
77%
+7pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Paid listings · list your event
Commodity & Energy Trading Week APAC · Mar 3-4 · Singapore
Commodity Trading Week Europe · May 19-20 · London
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, November 6, 2026
Charts: grey is the prior week, color is this week.
Dots under the energy markets and copper: the shape of the curve at Friday’s close. WTI, Brent and Nat Gas run cash to 1st to 2nd month, cash from Prism; Dutch TTF and copper run their first three contracts.
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver |
51.94 | +5.8% +2.84 |
-25.9% | +3.5% | +112% |
| Gold |
4,075 | +4.5% +176 |
-6.1% | -1.1% | +123% |
| Nat Gas contango |
2.998 | +3.5% +0.100 |
-18.7% | -30.9% | -44.8% |
| Corn |
442 | -1.4% -6 |
+0.3% | +2.7% | -19.9% |
| Wheat |
591 | -2.0% -12 |
+16.6% | +10.4% | -23.0% |
| Soybeans |
1,194 | -2.3% -29 |
+15.8% | +7.0% | +1.3% |
| Copper contango |
13,752 | -3.4% -486 |
+10.8% | +22.6% | +41.6% |
| WTI Crude backwardation |
90.83 | -12.8% -13.29 |
+58.2% | +51.1% | +10.9% |
| Brent backwardation |
98.32 | -16.4% -19.32 |
+61.6% | +53.5% | +17.8% |
| Dutch TTF backwardation |
85.59 | -17.7% -18.36 |
+204% | +175% | +8.2% |
Dutch TTF led the week. Start with NatGas 101.
Macro this week
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Fut |
7,402 | -2.8% -212 |
+7.4% | +8.0% | +57.7% |
| Dollar Index |
102.28 | +0.4% +0.40 |
+4.1% | +2.7% | +8.7% |
| EUR/USD |
1.1143 | -0.4% -0.0040 |
-5.1% | -3.5% | -3.7% |
| US 10Y Yield |
4.859 | -7.0bp | +70bp | +77bp | +336bp |
Tanker freight this week
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.41M | +4.5% | +992% | 234.9 | 32.05 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$418k | -2.7% | +495% | 118.3 | 16.14 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$230k | +9.8% | +262% | 133.8 | 18.25 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$304k | -7.7% | +781% | 199.9 | 26.83 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$223k | -8.9% | +758% | 211.1 | 23.72 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$85k | +36.7% | +178% | 114.8 | 13.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -3.5% | +278% | 104.8 | 14.07 |
Report of Oct 29, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
Forward curves
The heavy line: months 1 to 24 at Friday’s settlement Fri Nov 6. Amber: the same contracts a week earlier. Dotted: a month earlier. Dashed: months 1 to 24 as they stood a year earlier. Refinery cracks in $/bbl from the NYMEX curves.
WTI $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Dec 26 $90.83, down $13.29 on the week; Nov 28 $70.49. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $59.75.
Brent $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Jan 27 $98.32, down $15.11 on the week; Dec 28 $74.51. A year ago the front (Jan 26) was $63.38.
3-2-1 crack $/bbl
Backwardation. Front Dec 26 $47.56, down $2.17 on the week; Nov 28 $29.14. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $29.33.
Henry Hub $/MMBtu
Contango. Front Dec 26 $2.998, up $0.100 on the week; Nov 28 $3.631. A year ago the front (Dec 25) was $4.315.
The diesel and gasoline cracks, copper and propane: all eight curves.
The Week Ahead
Scheduled events next week that could move commodities.
Tue Nov 10 |
US CPI for October 8:30am ET
Hotter-than-expected print would lift the dollar and weigh on gold and industrial metals. |
Tue Nov 10 |
USDA WASDE report 12:00pm ET
Updates global crop supply-demand balances and could shift corn, soy and wheat prices. |
Tue Nov 10 |
Re-imposition of duties on excluded goods would raise costs for US importers of machinery and inputs, pressuring related supply chains. |
Tue Nov 10 |
Expiry or extension of tariff truce and port fees would directly affect trade flows and sentiment around metals and energy imports. |
Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
Oil market returns to surplus
JPMorgan · Nov 5 · Read →
Global oil market back in surplus as Middle East exports recover and demand falls on high prices.
Surplus 1.1M bpd Sep, 1.4M bpd Oct
Middle East exports recovered to 20.7M bpd Oct from 9.8M Mar
Demand down 3.3M bpd since conflict start
Oil price forecasts hiked on supply risks
Goldman · Nov 2 · Read →
Brent seen at $105/bbl Dec and $88 avg 2027 on substantial downside supply risks.
Brent Dec raised to $105 from $90
2027 avg raised 10% to $88
Base case 1M bpd disruption allowance 2027
Commodity Markets Outlook October 2026
World Bank · Oct 29 · Read →
Commodity prices surge 23% in 2026 led by 32% energy rise before easing 7% in 2027.
Energy +32% 2026, Brent avg $91
Metals +25% to new highs
Food +10% 2026, +7% 2027
Oil Market Report October 2026
IEA · Oct 15 · Read →
Global oil demand falls 2.6M bpd in 2026 amid high prices and disruptions; deficit persists.
Demand -2.6M bpd 2026 avg
Supply -5.8M bpd 2026, +7.7M bpd 2027
Diesel 25% of demand drop
Short-Term Energy Outlook
EIA · Nov 3 · Read →
Brent averages $105/bbl Q4 2026 on constrained Middle East flows; inventories keep falling.
Q4 Brent $105/bbl forecast
Inventories -1.9M bpd Q3, -0.7M bpd Q4
Flows constrained through year-end
LNG importers face $39B higher bill
Rystad · Oct 27 · Read →
Importers spend $39B more in 2026 despite buying 60.7M tonnes less due to Hormuz disruptions.
Portfolio costs +18% to $256B
Europe +$12B bill, -24M tonnes
Spot reliance rises to replace lost Qatari/UAE volumes
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
Crude flows and diesel outlook post-midterms
HC Commodities · Nov 4 · Listen →
Traders see dieselpocalypse risk persisting into 2027 despite crude flows resuming.
Russian diesel ban lift offers limited European relief
Hormuz disruption still strands significant product volumes
Supply chain fragility extends beyond Iran conflict
Democrat sweep constrains US foreign policy
MacroVoices · Nov 5 · Listen →
Weaker US posture raises escalation risk in Middle East and Ukraine.
Congressional shift limits aggressive Iran or Russia moves
Power vacuums could prolong Hormuz-style disruptions
Markets price higher geopolitical tail risks ahead
Russian diesel return eases Europe tightness
S&P Global Oil Markets · Nov 3 · Listen →
Lifting Russia's diesel export ban could add supply but uncertainty keeps prices sensitive.
European diesel market remains constrained despite inflows
Geopolitical headlines still drive price spikes
New barrels may not fully offset prior shortfalls
Grid reliability vs affordability trade-offs
Columbia Energy Exchange · Nov 3 · Listen →
US electricity demand will hit record levels in 2026 and 2027 per EIA.
Pandemic material sourcing issues persist into new builds
State regulators balance decarbonization with rising costs
Voter pressure intensifies on energy affordability
Sankey sees oil above $100 into 2027
Bloomberg Surveillance / Sankey Research · Nov 3 · Listen →
Crude stays above $100 per barrel through 2027 amid persistent supply risks.
Diesel prices face additional upward pressure
European winter energy costs will stay elevated
Structural tightness in refining and flows persists
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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