Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 41 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,714
-1.1%
-87 |
Dollar Index
101.55
-0.2%
-0.23 |
EUR/USD
1.1233
-0.02%
-0.0002 |
US 10Y Yield
5.146
+2.9 bp
|
Last price as of Thu, Oct 22, 5:35 AM ET. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Crude up $3.56 (+3.3%) on Houthi drone intercepted near Saudi Aramco's 1mb/d Shaybah oilfield and US diplomatic withdrawal orders from Saudi Arabia ahead of Israeli elections next Tuesday Oct 27 and US midterms following Tuesday Nov 4. Separately, Putin agreed to resume US-mediated Russia-Ukraine talks for November.
Palladium down $37 (-3.4%) on rising oil prices and Middle East tensions fueling inflation concerns that weigh on industrial metals.
Silver down $1.74 (-3.0%) on geopolitical tensions and oil-driven inflation fears pressuring precious metals ahead of the Fed meeting.
Platinum down $44 (-2.7%) on the same oil-led inflation concerns pressuring the platinum group metals complex.
Copper down $360 (-2.5%) on rising LME warehouse inflows easing near-term supply worries.
Nickel up $365 (+2.3%) on prospects of coordinated production cuts by Chinese producers in Indonesia.
Kicker: Saxo recommends long nickel on Indonesian HPAL production cut expectations tightening supply (Saxo Bank, Oct 21).
Palladium down $37 (-3.4%) on rising oil prices and Middle East tensions fueling inflation concerns that weigh on industrial metals.
Silver down $1.74 (-3.0%) on geopolitical tensions and oil-driven inflation fears pressuring precious metals ahead of the Fed meeting.
Platinum down $44 (-2.7%) on the same oil-led inflation concerns pressuring the platinum group metals complex.
Copper down $360 (-2.5%) on rising LME warehouse inflows easing near-term supply worries.
Nickel up $365 (+2.3%) on prospects of coordinated production cuts by Chinese producers in Indonesia.
Kicker: Saxo recommends long nickel on Indonesian HPAL production cut expectations tightening supply (Saxo Bank, Oct 21).
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil rises on Saudi attacks, supply fears
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 21, 6:05 PM ET
Oil advanced after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns that escalating Middle East hostilities could hit supply, even as exports through the Strait of Hormuz accelerate. Brent climbed above $110 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate traded around $98. A drone strike on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field killed two people but left operations unaffected, while an attack on the King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one. Read →
Mideast oil exports top prewar levels
Financial Times · Wed, Oct 21
Daily shipments from Gulf producers average 24.6mn barrels, above 23.3mn before conflict, as ships use alternative routes. The recovery comes even as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz persist. Read →
Iran war sparks US Northeast heating crisis
Financial Times · Wed, Oct 21
Record heating oil prices are forcing the region to rethink prior opposition to natural gas pipelines. The surge stems from diesel shortages tied to Middle East and Ukraine supply disruptions. Read →
Copper falls on tech selloff, risk aversion
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 21, 11:22 PM ET
Copper fell with other industrial metals as a selloff in AI-related stocks sapped risk appetite across global markets. The red metal slipped as much as 0.7% to $14,260 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. Read →
Gold edges lower on Mideast, rate signals
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 21, 7:56 PM ET
Gold dipped as a flareup in Middle East hostilities raised inflation risks, even as the Federal Reserve is still expected to keep interest rates steady in the near term. Bullion was trading at around $4,120 an ounce. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · US crude stocks draw 3.06M barrels to 412.5M as Houthi attacks on Saudi sites and Hormuz tanker strikes lift Brent near $109.
Cash WTI 106.80 +2.90 | Cash Brent 118.47 +3.31 | Cash Br–TI 11.67 +0.42 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
99.68 | +2.6% +2.53 |
+73.6% | +61.3% | +19.0% |
| Brent Dec 2026 |
112.38 | +3.3% +3.56 |
+84.7% | +70.3% | +31.4% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
3.096 | +1.9% +0.057 |
+81.5% | +60.7% | +24.7% |
| Heating Oil Nov 2026 |
4.857 | +2.0% +0.094 |
+120% | +94.6% | +84.2% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
30.35 | -0.4% -0.14 |
+114% +16.16 |
+58.7% +11.22 |
+48.3% +9.88 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
104.33 | +1.4% +1.42 |
+197% +69.23 |
+142% +61.28 |
+286% +77.32 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
55.01 | +0.7% +0.38 |
+160% +33.85 |
+103% +27.91 |
+143% +32.36 |
Oil settles mixed on US stock draw and Mideast risks
Arathy Somasekhar · Reuters · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
US crude inventories fell 3.06 million barrels last week to 412.5 million, exceeding forecasts for an 820,000-barrel draw per EIA data. Brent settled at $108.82, up 3 cents, while WTI fell 67 cents to $97.15. Traders balanced the larger-than-expected draw and ongoing vessel attacks in the Gulf of Oman against hopes for Russia-Ukraine talks. Read →
US loans 315k barrels from heating oil reserve
Reuters · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The Department of Energy will loan up to 315,000 barrels from the 1-million-barrel Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, with deliveries by Nov. 13. The move targets diesel and heating oil price surges from Middle East and Ukraine supply disruptions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called it a temporary measure ahead of winter and elections. Read →
Oil jumps over $2 on new Houthi Saudi strikes
Siyi Liu · Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Brent futures rose $2.82 to $111.64 and WTI gained $2.24 to $99.39 after fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. IRGC reported four vessels hit in the northern Persian Gulf. Escalation sustains the geopolitical premium even as some flows recover. Read →
Exxon shuts Joliet catalytic reformer unit
Nicole Jao · BOE Report / Reuters · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
ExxonMobil took offline a 50,000-bpd catalytic reformer at its 275,000-bpd Joliet, Illinois refinery on Oct. 20 amid an operational issue. The unit produces high-octane reformate for gasoline blending. The shutdown adds to Midwest fuel supply tightness in a tight global products market. Read →
Chart of the day
OFAC SDN list Oct 21 2026
via @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 125 likes
Screenshots of OFAC General License HH annex listing 7 sanctioned vessels and wind-down terms, directly impacts sanctioned Iranian crude flows and risk premia
OFAC SDN list Oct 21 2026
via @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 125 likes
Screenshots of OFAC General License HH annex listing 7 sanctioned vessels and wind-down terms, directly impacts sanctioned Iranian crude flows and risk premia
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Mild weather forecasts drive November natgas futures to four-week low near $2.84/MMBtu, outweighing strong LNG feedgas.
Cash Henry Hub 2.969 -0.006 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Nov 2026 |
2.769 | -0.8% -0.021 |
-24.9% | -17.2% | -47.6% |
Natgas futures hit four-week low at $2.84 amid mild weather outlook
Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
November delivery futures fell 12.7 cents or 4.3% to $2.84/MMBtu on Wednesday, the lowest since Sept. 22. Mild temperatures through early November cut expected heating demand despite robust LNG export flows averaging 18.2 bcfd so far in October. Higher domestic production and continued storage builds are offsetting export support, pressuring near-term prices. Read →
Spot prices rise in Southeast and Appalachia as futures fall
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Oct 21, 2026, 5:02 PM ET
Spot prices posted double-digit gains at Southeast and Appalachia hubs on Wednesday while futures sold off on mild weather forecasts. LNG feedgas demand rebounded sharply and East region production exceeded recent averages. The split highlights regional tightness amid national futures weakness. Read →
East storage may turn to y/y deficit on Appalachia outage
Kevin Dobbs · Natural Gas Intelligence · Tue, Oct 21, 2026, 10:01 AM ET
A pipeline leak curtailed mid-October Appalachia production, likely producing a lean East region injection in Thursday’s EIA report. Inventories could shift to a deficit versus 2025 levels. The development tightens the regional balance ahead of winter despite national storage remaining near the five-year average. Read →
Futures tumble below $2.80 as South Central salt stocks deplete
Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
November futures fell below $2.80/MMBtu Wednesday ahead of the storage report even as South Central salt inventories sit sharply depleted. The regional shortfall raises vulnerability to unexpected winter demand spikes. Mild weather is masking underlying supply tightness in key storage areas. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane fell 1.2% to 104.2¢/gal on heavy US exports drawing down Gulf Coast stocks early.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.301 | -0.8% -0.003 |
+27.0% | +12.3% | -30.0% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.042 | -1.2% -0.013 |
+68.9% | +60.6% | -28.2% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.704 | -1.2% -0.021 |
+129% | +106% | +5.4% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.856 | -1.0% -0.019 |
+139% | +115% | +14.6% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.181 | -0.1% -0.002 |
+86.0% | +77.5% | +13.6% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 12 | unch | +13 | +7 | +4 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 79 | -1 | +51 | +45 | -18 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -673 | +1 | -370 | -361 | -244 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -363 | -3 | -198 | -182 | -358 |
| C5 as % WTI | 92 | -3 | +6 | +8 | -4 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
EIA propane stocks · week ending Fri, Oct 16
A 0.5 mb draw took US propane stocks to 105.8 mb, 12.4 mb (13%) above the five-year average and 2.6 mb above a year ago. Exports ran 2,032 kb/d (+40 kb/d w/w) against production of 2,889 kb/d.
US stocks 105.8 mb -0.5 mb w/w | Year ago 103.2 mb | 5-yr avg 93.4 mb |
Gulf Coast 65.9 mb PADD 3 | Midwest 26.1 mb PADD 2 | Exports 2,032 kb/d +40 kb/d w/w |
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · Full EIA report →
Strong exports slash US propane stocks early
Christine Groenewold · RBN Energy · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
US propane inventories dropped 3.8 MMbbl over three weeks, the steepest decline for the period in at least a decade, as exports pulled Gulf Coast stocks lower. The year-over-year surplus narrowed to 2.7 MMbbl and could vanish next week. Strong loadings at Gulf Coast terminals including Enterprise, Energy Transfer Nederland and Targa Galena Park drove the draw, tightening near-term balances ahead of winter. Read →
Kpler cuts Mont Belvieu propane outlook on oversupply
Nils Jenson · Kpler · Tue, Oct 21, 2026
Kpler lowered its Q2 2026 Mont Belvieu propane outlook as US production exceeded expectations and US-China trade normalization remains unlikely before H2 2026. A new dock at Energy Transfer Nederland starting in early November boosted exports, but persistent tariffs on US cargoes to China keep pressure on USGC prices. The firm also trimmed its Far East propane outlook amid plentiful US supply and weak Japanese/Korean demand. Read →
NGL frac spread hits $7.80/MMBtu, up 36% m/m
Christine Groenewold · RBN Energy · Tue, Oct 20, 2026
NGL prices outpaced natural gas over the past month, lifting the frac spread to $7.80/MMBtu on Oct 19, a 36% increase from a month earlier. The move reflects stronger Mont Belvieu NGL values relative to Henry Hub, improving recovery economics for producers in Appalachia and the Permian. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF rises to €87.43/MWh on EU storage at 74.58% (-16pp below norm) and early cold, with JKM near $30/MMBtu on Asian winter buying despite high prices.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
89.27 | +2.1% +1.84 |
+211% | +170% | +0.2% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
29.39 | +2.1% +0.61 |
+211% | +170% | +0.2% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
30.06 | +1.7% +0.51 |
+213% | +167% | -9.6% |
EU gas storage · gas day Tue, Oct 20
EU gas storage is 74.6% full, 845 TWh in store, 14.7 points below the five-year average for this date and 8.2 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 61.1%.
EU full 74.6% -0.04 pts d/d | Year ago 82.8% | 5-yr avg 89.3% same date |
Germany 61.1% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Asia LNG imports hit 3-month high despite record spot prices
Clyde Russell · Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Kpler data shows Northeast Asia LNG arrivals likely reaching 23.31 million tons in October, the strongest since July and second-highest since the Middle East conflict began. Spot JKM prices hit the highest since December 2023 at around $29.30/MMBtu in the prior week. China’s price-sensitive buying signals winter demand overriding costs, tightening global cargoes available for Europe and supporting TTF via the arb. Read →
European gas retreats after hitting four-year highs near €90
Bloomberg via Livemint · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
Dutch TTF futures slid as much as 5.3% after peaking near €90.24/MWh, the highest since late 2022, on profit-taking. Storage sites are about 75% full, the lowest for the season in records back to 2009, with Germany just over 61%. The surge still piles pressure on consumers and industry even as prices remain below prior crisis peaks. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM data-center demand keeps capacity prices capped and short 6.8 GW as FERC rejects curtailment plan and Texas pauses new interconnections.
Modo tracks 92 GW advanced data-center load in ERCOT
Modo Energy · Thu, Oct 21, 2026
Modo Energy's Oct. 21 update shows 92 GW of data-center projects in advanced planning across ERCOT, heavily phased from Dallas-Fort Worth to West Texas and the I-35 corridor, with 11 GW operating/expanding, 12 GW under construction and 54 GW proposed. Microsoft’s Pecos agreement includes dedicated gas generation; Oncor’s Batch Zero submission alone carries $2B security. Large loads are expected to drive ERCOT prices from $36/MWh in 2027 toward a $150/MWh peak in the early 2030s. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · India's coal power plants hit critically low stocks as demand surges from El Niño heat.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
145.30 | -0.1% -0.20 |
+49.1% | +58.3% | -37.2% |
| Newcastle $/t |
155.50 | +2.0% +3.00 |
+47.0% | +44.7% | -14.6% |
Met coal markets soften on China mine restarts
BigMint Bureau · BigMint · Wed, Oct 22, 2026
Global metallurgical coal prices weakened in the week to Sept 24 as Chinese mine restarts and higher Mongolian imports narrowed China's supply deficit to just 0.13 million tonnes in September from 3.18 million tonnes in August. Australian coking coal declined with slower Chinese buying and poor steel margins, while Indian blast-furnace coke prices held steady amid tight availability. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · US harvest acceleration and fund liquidation drive corn, soy, wheat futures to multi-week lows.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
465 | +0.4% +2 |
+5.6% | +8.6% | -13.6% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
629 | +0.2% +1 |
+24.1% | +22.7% | -16.8% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,259 | +0.0% +1 |
+22.1% | +20.5% | +3.1% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
20.51 | +0.3% +0.06 |
+36.6% | +34.1% | +7.5% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
311.2 | -1.6% -5.0 |
-10.8% | -24.1% | +55.7% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,779 | -1.1% -64 |
-4.7% | -8.8% | +124% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
81.40 | -0.5% -0.43 |
+26.9% | +27.3% | -24.7% |
Chicago corn, wheat, soybeans fall to two-month lows on harvest pressure.
Business Recorder · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
CBOT corn eased 0.6% to $4.59 to 1/4 a bushel, soybeans fell 0.3% to $12.45, and wheat dropped 0.9% to $6.37 to 1/4 a bushel. Advancing US Midwest harvest and diplomatic efforts to end Russia-Ukraine war prompted funds to liquidate long positions. Dry weather this week will accelerate harvest of bumper crops. Read →
Corn rebounds 1.25 cents after six straight losses as harvest lags.
Cassidy Walter · Agriculture.com · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
December corn settled up 1.25 cents at $4.63 to 1/4 per bushel after breaking below August lows and triggering short covering. USDA reported 44% of US corn harvested as of Sunday, behind the five-year average. China bought 134,000 metric tons of soybeans and Spain 165,000 metric tons in flash sales. Read →
Grains dip after Trump skips immediate tariffs on farm trade.
MillingandMillers.com / Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
CBOT corn fell 0.6% to $4.87 to 1/4, soybeans 0.5% to $10.61 to 3/4, and wheat 0.4% to $5.56 to 1/2 a bushel. Markets had rallied Tuesday on no new tariffs but reversed on fund selling. Dry Argentine conditions and Brazilian rain slowing soy harvest provide some support. Read →
Arabica hits near six-week high; cocoa and sugar decline.
Business Recorder / Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Arabica coffee rose 1.1% to $3.15 per lb near a six-week high on falling stocks in Japan and Europe. Cocoa fell 1.3% on dry Ivory Coast weather concerns for next crop. Raw sugar slipped 0.5% to 20.42 cents per lb after hitting a 19-month peak last week. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · US retail fertilizer prices climb with UAN32 up 6% month-on-month to $486/ton amid ongoing supply shocks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,682 | -0.2% -3 |
-3.8% | +3.8% | -39.6% |
| Egypt FOB $/t |
505.00 | +0.3% +1.50 |
-12.2% | +16.4% | -37.5% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
481.00 | +0.1% +0.50 |
+18.0% | +14.0% | -38.3% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
436.75 | -0.2% -0.75 |
+12.9% | +15.6% | -37.1% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.6% | +17.1% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Middle East conflict halts urea, sulfur and ammonia flows through Hormuz.
MillingandMillers.com · Wed, Oct 22, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to fertilizer traffic, halting urea output from Qatar’s massive facility and curbing sulfur and ammonia flows from the region. At least 2 million metric tons of urea production, about 3% of annual seaborne trade, have been lost, with nearly 1 million tons of loaded cargo still stuck in the Gulf. Phosphate producers face extra pressure from sulfur shortages and Chinese export curbs, raising risks of reduced applications and lower yields in 2027. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · LME copper falls 0.4 to 0.8% as inventories rebound 8% in a week, easing supply fears while nickel surges on Indonesia cut talks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,145 | -2.5% -360 |
+14.0% | +26.2% | +41.8% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,435 | -0.8% -108 |
+13.7% | +35.1% | +51.2% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,114 | +0.9% +27 |
+4.7% | +19.3% | -0.9% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,393 | +0.2% +7 |
+13.0% | +23.3% | +8.1% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,205 | +2.3% +365 |
-4.3% | +6.9% | -17.5% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,147 | -0.0% -0 |
-2.5% | +1.6% | +7.6% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
50,878 | -0.5% -260 |
+21.1% | +43.8% | +32.9% |
LME copper drops as inventories surge, supply worries ease
Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Benchmark three-month LME copper fell 0.44% to $14,293.5/mt overnight after 13,525 tons flowed into warehouses for a third straight day, lifting stocks 8% in a week. SHFE copper slipped 0.67% to 109,000 yuan/mt. Regional tightness persists with Codelco offering Europe a record $350/mt premium for 2027 and Yangshan premium hitting $148/mt, its highest since October 2022. Read →
Chinese nickel producers eye Indonesia output cuts
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Executives from Tsingshan, GEM, Lygend and Huayou plan to meet as early as Tuesday to finalize coordinated cuts at HPAL plants in Indonesia. Weak prices and high costs pressure profitability; talks follow an August meeting that yielded no deal. Nickel led LME gains with a 2.4 to 4% surge on the unconfirmed prospects. Read →
Codelco sets record $350/mt Europe copper premium
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Codelco offered European buyers a record $350/mt premium for 2027 deliveries, up from $325 this year, amid LME Week negotiations. Aurubis raised its 2027 premium 10% to a record $347/mt earlier. The moves signal expected European shortages as US warehouses hold 70% of visible global stocks due to tariff uncertainty. Read →
Zinc prices recover weakly on export, demand hopes
SMM · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
LME zinc closed up 0.43% at $3,757/mt after a V-shaped session while SHFE zinc edged higher. China exported 70,400 mt of zinc ingots in September, above expectations, with more exports likely in October. LME stocks keep rising but downstream consumption is seen improving, supporting a weak recovery. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Fortescue warns of Pilbara output cuts if CMRG pricing talks stall by year-end, pressuring iron ore amid weak China steel demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
88.7 | -1.8% -1.6 |
-11.9% | -9.2% | -13.7% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
411 | -0.4% -2 |
+4.4% | +7.3% | -48.0% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
425 | -0.7% -3 |
+3.1% | +4.5% | -46.8% |
Fortescue warns of Pilbara cuts if CMRG talks stall
Nick Toscano · Sydney Morning Herald · Thu, Oct 22, 4:00 PM ET
Fortescue warned investors that unresolved negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group could force production adjustments at its Pilbara mines by year-end. Shipments exceeded sales by 3.9 million tonnes in the September quarter due to delayed shipments. The standoff highlights Beijing's leverage over Australian miners supplying China's steel mills. Read →
Fortescue ships 46.8Mt but sales lag on CMRG talks
Kalkine · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
Fortescue reported 46.8 million tonnes of iron ore shipments in Q1 FY27, down 6% year-on-year, with sales at 42.9 million tonnes. Maintenance and CMRG negotiations caused the gap. The company held FY27 guidance of 197 to 207 million tonnes but flagged risks if talks drag on. Read →
Iron ore futures little changed on freight rebound
Business Recorder / Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 2026
SGX and DCE iron ore futures ended little changed as rising freight rates and potential supply disruptions offset weak China demand. Capesize earnings jumped, supporting a modest technical rebound amid persistent port inventory builds. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Oil-driven inflation fears and Fed hike bets pressure gold to a one-week low near $4,115/oz while ETF inflows and central-bank buying provide support.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,102 | -1.2% -48 |
-5.5% | -1.1% | +128% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
55.97 | -3.0% -1.74 |
-20.2% | +15.4% | +129% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,592 | -2.7% -44 |
-21.8% | +0.3% | +51.6% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,053 | -3.4% -37 |
-35.4% | -28.4% | -48.3% |
Gold dips fourth day as oil rally fans inflation fears
Reuters · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
Spot gold eased for a fourth straight session, touching a one-week low near $4,116/oz before steadying around $4,136 as Brent crude climbed above $110 on Middle East supply concerns. Hotter US inflation data reinforced expectations of a December Fed rate hike with 88 to 90% odds priced in, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The pullback occurs despite ongoing central-bank purchases and ETF demand that continue to anchor physical markets. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · TSMC hunts rare-earth-free motors for fabs amid China's export controls on magnets and materials.
TSMC seeks rare-earth-free motors to dodge China export risks
Wen-Yee Lee and Fanny Potkin · Reuters · Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 AM ET
TSMC is surveying suppliers for rare-earth-free motors in factory automation equipment to mitigate risks from Beijing's export controls on rare-earth materials, magnets and processing technology. Rare-earth magnets power motors in highly automated chip fabs; a shortage could disrupt production for AI, smartphones, data centers and defense customers. The effort is early-stage but aligns with broader US-Taiwan moves to reduce reliance on Chinese critical minerals. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · BDI jumps 3.4% to 2,680 on Capesize surge to 3,793 as iron ore demand lifts dry-bulk rates.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.43M | -3.0% | +1515% | 238.4 | 32.52 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$551k | -6.7% | +778% | 151.7 | 20.70 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$249k | -23.4% | +479% | 142.8 | 19.48 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$300k | +6.5% | +1280% | 196.5 | 26.38 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$215k | +4.5% | +1185% | 203.2 | 22.83 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$64k | +43.0% | +40.7% | 91.3 | 10.74 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$72k | -5.2% | +236% | 100.1 | 13.44 |
Report of Oct 15, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
BDI climbs 3.4% to 2,680 as Capesize surges 7.7%
Hellenic Shipping News · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index rose 87 points or 3.36% to 2,680 on Oct 21, its highest since Oct 13, led by a 271-point or 7.69% jump in the Capesize Index to 3,793. Panamax fell 43 points while Supramax edged up 2 points. The move reflects stronger demand for larger vessels carrying iron ore and coal amid tightening supply. Read →
VLCC rates fall double digits from October highs
Lloyd's List · Mon, Oct 19, 2026
Spot VLCC rates eased from record levels, with the Oman-China index down 13% from its early-October peak and the US Gulf-China index down 19%. Suezmax and Aframax rates also retreated double digits on slower chartering. Rates remain far above pre-Hormuz crisis levels despite the pullback. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EU ETS MSR threshold rises to 700M allowances; EUAs flat-line near $85 to 86 as policy eases liquidity concerns.
EU raises MSR invalidation threshold to 700M allowances
Carbon Pulse · Wed, Oct 21, 11:02 AM ET
The Council of the EU and European Parliament provisionally agreed to raise the Market Stability Reserve invalidation threshold from 400 million to 700 million EUAs. The compromise keeps the invalidation mechanism but creates a larger buffer for supply-demand imbalances, taking effect after formal adoption. It supports long-term market liquidity and price stability ahead of the broader ETS review while aligning with 2040 to 2050 targets. Read →
California ARB proposes CCUS buffer account for allowances
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Oct 22, 1:46 AM ET
California Air Resources Board proposed rules allowing covered entities under the Cap-and-Invest Program to reduce obligations via verified CO2 storage. Entities must contribute allowances or offsets to a new CCUS Buffer Account scaled by project risk rating as insurance against leaks or reversals. The framework implements SB 905 to support safe CCUS and CDR deployment with monitoring, financial responsibility, and permanence standards. Read →
UK cuts 2027 UKA auction volumes, lifts reserve 3.6%
Carbon Pulse · Wed, Oct 21, 5:36 PM ET
The UK published its 2027 UK Allowance auction schedule with reduced sales volumes compared to prior years. The reserve price rises 3.6 percent. The changes signal tighter supply in the UK ETS, supporting prices amid ongoing compliance demand. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Kinder Morgan's $4.7B gas pipeline FIDs drive infrastructure push amid power, data-center and LNG demand.
Kinder Morgan commits $4.7B to two major US gas pipelines
Reuters · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
Kinder Morgan approved its share of investments totaling $4.7 billion in the Southeast Connector (up to 2.6 Bcf/d, 470 miles) and Permian Link (2.8 Bcf/d, 434 miles) natural gas pipelines. The projects target demand from power generation, data centers and LNG exports, lifting the firm's backlog to $14.4 billion including a record $13.2 billion in gas projects with service targeted for 2030. Read →
Halliburton Q3 profit beats estimates on international strength
Reuters · Tue, Oct 20, 2026
Halliburton reported Q3 adjusted earnings of $0.60 per share, beating estimates, on revenue of $5.7 billion driven by international growth in Latin America and Europe/Africa/CIS offsetting weaker North American stimulation. CEO Jeff Miller highlighted multi-year demand from restoring production and energy security post-disruptions; the firm sees mid-single-digit 2027 revenue growth and 15% margins. Read →
Chevron names Gustavson next CFO in leadership shuffle
Kevin Crowley · Bloomberg / Reuters · Mon, Oct 5, 2026
Chevron appointed Jeff Gustavson, currently president of New Energies, as CFO effective January 1, 2027, succeeding Eimear Bonner who moves to president of oil, products and gas. The reshuffle also shifts Mark Nelson to vice chairman for strategy and business development, positioning two executives as potential successors to CEO Mike Wirth. Read →
Olenox closes $21.7M gas-to-power acquisitions
Company release / Hart Energy · Mon, Oct 20, 2026
Olenox Industries completed acquisitions of Wildboy Holdings (British Columbia natural gas assets with up to 144 MMcf/d processing and 56.8 Bcf proved reserves) and IPD Industries (100 MW Texas power-development platform) for $21.7 million mostly in preferred stock. The deals advance its gas-to-power-to-compute strategy targeting AI, data centers and digital assets. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump waives Graham Act tariffs and sanctions on Russia energy buyers to ease diesel costs ahead of midterms.
US-Mexico talks stall on steel and aluminum tariffs
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 20, 2026
US and Mexican negotiators reached an impasse over tariffs on steel and aluminum, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick objecting to Mexican demands for reduced metals duties. Progress on any deal is now likely delayed past the November 3 midterms. The Section 232 tariffs include 50% on steel and aluminum imports from Mexico. Read →
China to push back on cleantech tariffs at COP31
Reuters · Wed, Oct 21, 2026
Chinese Vice Minister Li Gao said COP31 in Turkey should address tariffs on clean technology as a new problem for global climate action alongside climate finance gaps. The US and EU have imposed steep tariffs on Chinese solar, EVs and autos while investigating wind firms. China, the world's top producer of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and EVs, will give a firm response to protectionism. Read →
US eyes easing shadow fleet sanctions to lower freight
Reuters · Wed, Oct 15, 2026
The Trump administration is considering case-by-case removal of sanctions on some shadow fleet vessels linked to Russia, Iran and Venezuela to increase tanker capacity and reduce record freight rates. Buyers would apply to Treasury for approval to purchase and restore vessels for legal non-sanctioned oil trade. Energy Secretary Chris Wright highlighted the tanker shortage as a key choke point inflating fuel costs. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Russia sends first diesel to US on Oct 22 per deal with Trump
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 21
Traders on X highlight Russia's first diesel shipment to the US as a minor volume play (300k barrels, 2.4 hours of US consumption) but a major diplomatic win for Putin amid ongoing sanctions. Discussions note US and India both receiving Russian/Venezuelan oil, with the deal lifting Russia's export ban. Read →
US evacuates diplomats from Middle East amid Iran tensions
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 21
Energy traders flag US moving diplomats and troops from Middle East posts as preparation for possible post-midterm action against Iran. #OOTT chatter links this to ongoing Hormuz/Strait risks and oil price volatility near $100+. Read →
Gold at 4150 support/resistance battle for traders
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 21
Retail and technical traders on X focus on gold around 4100 to 4155 levels, debating short setups near resistance or longs if support holds. Broader commodity videos note gold under pressure alongside silver while WTI consolidates. Read →
Natgas drops sharply below triangle support
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 21
Commodity traders highlight natural gas aggressive breakdown below key support amid shifting weather outlooks, contrasting with crude strength. UNG and futures levels dominate technical discussions. Read →
US rough rice up 83% from lows on low acreage
r/Commodities · Wed, Oct 21
r/Commodities discusses rough rice surging to near USDA break-even after 33% drop in harvested acreage to 33-year low. Traders note high beginning stocks and record imports offset some supply tightness despite the rally. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
BofA's Blanch: oil crunch in 4 to 5 months
Crude oil could face a crunch point in maybe four or five months. Watch/Listen →
Vortexa chief economist on mixed oil signals
David Wech, Vortexa chief economist on CNBC Power Lunch · Tue, Oct 20
Significant shrinking in the crude cushion is expected in coming months. Watch/Listen →
S&P Global on El Niño wheat risks
El Niño remains a major weather risk for global wheat amid Black Sea export constraints. Watch/Listen →
HSBC strategist: fundamentals unchanged
Max Kettner, HSBC chief multi-asset strategist on CNBC · Tue, Oct 20
Fundamentally, nothing has changed in the last two weeks. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12%
-1pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through December 31
29%
-4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
15%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
11%
-13pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
7%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
6%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
21%
+4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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