Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · 51 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,870
+0.2%
+14 |
Dollar Index
102.22
+0.04%
+0.04 |
EUR/USD
1.1196
-0.06%
-0.0007 |
US 10Y Yield
5.217
-2.3 bp
|
Last price as of Wed, Oct 14, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures; the dollar index, EUR/USD and the 10-year yield are cash. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Crude modest overnight gains on geopolitics with the risk premium from Saudi/Houthi/Hormuz tensions remaining the dominant near-term driver.
Diesel markets not pricing in any change in Russian flows following the “energy ceasefire”.
Trump still not committed to helping MBS in Saudi against Houthis possibly due to MBS not helping the US back in May.
Reports of Iran changing Hormuz tactics: pace (increase), type (further away from Hormuz) and sourcing (IRGC using more unarmed spotters in small boats to help identify targets) all with the goal of keeping oil prices high ahead of US Nov 3 midterm elections. Strategy: Trump will have hands tied on Iran following elections.
Tin down $1607 (-3.1%) on AI narrative cooling and Fed hawkish rate-hike expectations pressuring metals.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $2.34 (-2.7%) on profit-taking and milder weather forecasts easing demand.
Cocoa up $121 (+2.1%) on adverse El Niño-linked weather risks in West Africa supporting supply concerns ahead of grind data.
Urea, China (ZCE) down $34 (-2.0%) on lower Indian tender results and ample global supply pressuring prices.
Isobutane down $0.036 (-1.9%).
Kicker: Saxo recommends long cocoa on resilient supply risks from El Niño weather in West Africa (Saxo Bank, Oct 9).
Diesel markets not pricing in any change in Russian flows following the “energy ceasefire”.
Trump still not committed to helping MBS in Saudi against Houthis possibly due to MBS not helping the US back in May.
Reports of Iran changing Hormuz tactics: pace (increase), type (further away from Hormuz) and sourcing (IRGC using more unarmed spotters in small boats to help identify targets) all with the goal of keeping oil prices high ahead of US Nov 3 midterm elections. Strategy: Trump will have hands tied on Iran following elections.
Tin down $1607 (-3.1%) on AI narrative cooling and Fed hawkish rate-hike expectations pressuring metals.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $2.34 (-2.7%) on profit-taking and milder weather forecasts easing demand.
Cocoa up $121 (+2.1%) on adverse El Niño-linked weather risks in West Africa supporting supply concerns ahead of grind data.
Urea, China (ZCE) down $34 (-2.0%) on lower Indian tender results and ample global supply pressuring prices.
Isobutane down $0.036 (-1.9%).
Kicker: Saxo recommends long cocoa on resilient supply risks from El Niño weather in West Africa (Saxo Bank, Oct 9).
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Copper hits three-week high as Escondida strike looms
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Copper rose toward $14,700 a ton as unions at BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile threatened a strike starting Wednesday morning after wage talks collapsed, adding to supply risks from the world’s largest copper mine. Read →
Oil climbs as Houthis strike Aramco HQ, Gulf flows at risk
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Brent traded near $106 a barrel and WTI advanced toward $95 as Houthi missile and drone strikes hit Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran and other Saudi targets, heightening risks to Persian Gulf energy recovery. Read →
Rio Tinto lifts copper, iron ore output in Q3
Financial Times · Wed, Oct 13, 2026
Rio Tinto reported strong Q3 operational performance with Oyu Tolgoi copper production up 27% year-over-year and 29% year-to-date, while global iron ore sales rose 3% year-over-year. Read →
Centinela copper strike talks resume under mediation
Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Unions at Chile’s Centinela copper mine returned to mediated negotiations on Tuesday to end a week-long strike that has already halved truck operations and threatens sharper production cuts by November. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Natural Gas 1Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 3Coal 2Agriculture 4Fertilizers 2Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 3Regulation & Government 5Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Houthi missile strike on Saudi Aramco Dhahran HQ building raises fresh Gulf supply-risk premium as oil benchmarks edge higher overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 94.35 | +0.2% +0.21 |
+64.3% | +61.9% | +16.0% |
| Brent | 105.55 | -0.1% -0.14 |
+73.5% | +70.5% | +25.7% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.223 | -0.8% -0.027 |
+82.6% | +69.8% | +27.9% |
| Heating Oil | 4.946 | +0.2% +0.011 |
+133% | +127% | +93.1% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
41.01 | -3.2% -1.36 |
+146% +24.32 |
+91.2% +19.56 |
+67.4% +16.50 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
113.37 | +0.2% +0.26 |
+258% +81.72 |
+243% +80.30 |
+332% +87.10 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
65.13 | -1.2% -0.82 |
+201% +43.45 |
+157% +39.81 |
+160% +40.04 |
Houthi missile hits Aramco Dhahran HQ building, starts limited fire.
Al Jazeera · Tue, Oct 13, 3:01 PM ET
Yemen's Houthis targeted an administrative building at Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters on Tuesday evening, causing a limited fire that authorities extinguished with no injuries reported. The strike followed Saudi-led coalition attacks on Houthi oil and fuel facilities in Sanaa and other Yemeni sites. Escalating attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure heighten risks to Persian Gulf exports amid ongoing Iran-related disruptions. Read →
OPEC+ September output rises 900k bpd on Saudi rebound.
Alex Lawler, Olesya Astakhova · Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 12:02 PM ET
OPEC reported OPEC+ crude production averaged 39.07 million bpd in September, up 900,000 bpd from August, led by Saudi Arabia's jump to 8.372 million bpd. The group cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 180,000 bpd while raising the 2027 outlook to 2.55 million bpd to rebuild inventories depleted by the Iran war. Output remains well below pre-conflict levels despite the monthly rebound. Read →
Saudi September crude output jumps 2M bpd to 8.372M bpd.
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 13, 8:00 AM ET
Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its September crude production rose roughly 2 million bpd to 8.372 million bpd from a three-decade low in August. The rebound signals partial recovery in Gulf supply flows despite Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict. Output remains significantly below pre-war levels. Read →
WSJ: Brent falls 0.9% while WTI gains 0.4% on mixed drivers.
Farhan Rafid, Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Oct 13
Oil futures settled mixed Tuesday with Brent retreating after three days of gains while WTI edged higher as traders balanced persistent Middle East supply risks against prospects for additional Russian diesel exports. Analysts noted skepticism that the US-Russia diesel deal will meaningfully ease global distillate tightness. Attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and soaring freight costs sustained the geopolitical risk premium. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natgas futures hold near $3.17 as milder weather forecasts offset output drop to eight-month low.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.305 | +0.7% +0.022 |
-10.3% | +9.6% | -41.9% |
US natgas futures steady as milder outlook offsets output drop
Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
US natural gas futures for November delivery rose 0.2 cent to $3.169/MMBtu on Tuesday. LSEG data showed Lower 48 output averaging 110.6 bcfd so far in October, down from record 113.3 bcfd in August/September, with daily output tracking an eight-month low of 107.1 bcfd due to Hurricane Isaias shut-ins and pipeline issues. Milder weather forecasts lowered expected demand next week to 106.1 bcfd from prior views, while LNG feedgas flows averaged 17.4 bcfd, below September levels; offshore Gulf production recovery left 0.5 bcfd still shut in. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settles at 100.8¢/gal on softer export rebound and stock draw.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.297 | +1.7% +0.005 |
+25.2% | +10.7% | -33.3% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.008 | -0.3% -0.003 |
+63.3% | +57.1% | -31.3% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.681 | +1.8% +0.030 |
+126% | +108% | +3.8% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.839 | -1.9% -0.036 |
+137% | +120% | +13.4% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.177 | -0.1% -0.001 |
+85.8% | +74.1% | +13.7% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 8 | unch | +9 | +1 | +1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 71 | unch | +43 | +34 | -24 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -680 | +8 | -376 | -367 | -269 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -385 | +3 | -219 | -198 | -392 |
| C5 as % WTI | 97 | unch | +11 | +7 | -2 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
ONEOK keeps Texas City LPG export terminal priority despite Magellan synergies.
null · OPIS · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
ONEOK executives confirmed on an earnings call that the planned 400 Mb/d Texas City LPG export terminal with MPLX remains a high priority long-term project. The company is seeing strong contracting interest for capacity on the terminal, which is slated for early 2028 startup and would add significant Gulf Coast LPG export optionality. Short-term focus is on Magellan acquisition synergies and Permian NGL expansions. Read →
ONEOK reports lot of interest in Texas City LPG export terminal capacity.
Carlos Nieves · World Ports Organization · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
ONEOK Chief Commercial Officer Sheridan Swords said the company is receiving substantial interest from customers wanting to contract capacity on its planned 400 Mb/d Texas City LPG export terminal. The project includes a new 24-inch pipeline from Mont Belvieu storage and targets low-ethane propane and normal butane loadings. Location near open water is cited as a key competitive advantage for reducing logistics risk. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF hits four-year high at €85.85/MWh on low EU storage (73%) and Hormuz LNG disruptions.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
84.88 | -2.7% -2.34 |
+210% | +174% | -14.6% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
27.85 | -2.7% -0.77 |
+210% | +174% | -14.6% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
26.27 | +0.7% +0.18 |
+174% | +138% | -21.1% |
EU gas storage · gas day Mon, Oct 12
EU gas storage is 73.9% full, 836 TWh in store, 14.9 points below the five-year average for this date and 9.2 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 60.0%.
EU full 73.9% +0.10 pts d/d | Year ago 83.2% | 5-yr avg 88.8% same date |
Germany 60.0% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF hits four-year high on low storage, Hormuz LNG risks
Giulia Petroni · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Front-month November Dutch TTF rose 1.8% to €85.85/MWh Tuesday, its highest since December 2022. Prices have more than tripled in 2026 after Strait of Hormuz disruptions stranded nearly a fifth of global LNG flows. EU storage at 73% full, well below the five-year average, heightens winter scramble risks for LNG. Read →
Equinor signs five-year gas deal with Dutch Eneco
Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Equinor agreed to deliver 9 TWh/year (0.9 bcm) of Norwegian gas to Eneco for the Dutch grid starting Oct 1. It is the third long-term deal between the firms this year and includes verified lower-emissions attributes. The contract bolsters reliable northwest Europe pipeline supply amid tight LNG markets. Read →
Taiwan advances Alaska LNG deal after Trump comments
Reuters · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Taiwan's economy ministry reported significant progress on CPC buying 6 mtpa of Alaska LNG with up to $4.4 billion investment. The project targets first exports in 2031 and would bypass Panama Canal/Horn of Africa routing for Asian buyers. It adds long-term US supply options for Asia as Middle East flows remain disrupted. Read →
Qatar LNG exports stay crippled by Hormuz risks
Pierre Bousso · Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Qatar's October LNG exports are on track for just 0.6 mt amid ongoing Hormuz shipping risks and force majeure extensions. Iranian attacks have idled 17% of Ras Laffan capacity with repairs potentially taking years. The sustained cut keeps global LNG markets tight and supports elevated TTF/JKM prices into winter. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM declares Maximum Generation and Load Management Alerts with DOE emergency order authorizing data-center backup generators as last resort amid warm weather and maintenance outages.
PJM gets DOE emergency order for backup generators at data centers
The Economic Times · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
The U.S. Department of Energy issued Order No. 202-26-50 on Oct. 12 authorizing PJM to direct backup generation at data centers and other large loads as a last resort before or during an EEA 3 through Oct. 16. PJM forecast demand around 111,500 MW or higher on Oct. 13 with roughly 61,591 MW of generation outages and reserve margin within 900 MW on Oct. 14 due to warm fall weather and planned maintenance. The order allows PJM to recall outages and tap backup resources to avoid firm load cuts across its 13-state footprint. Read →
PJM extends Maximum Generation Alert through Oct. 14 with DOE backup authority
Pennsylvania Capital-Star · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
PJM extended its Maximum Generation Alert and Load Management Alert through Oct. 14 and recalled maintenance outages after forecasting tight conditions from elevated demand, high planned generation outages of about 62,000 MW, and transmission constraints. The DOE emergency order specifically authorizes calling on data-center backup generation before declaring firm load interruption. No customer action is required from the alerts themselves. Read →
Texas pauses data-center interconnections pending ERCOT audit of 474 GW queue
Utility Dive · Mon, Oct 13, 2026
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered an audit of all data centers in ERCOT’s interconnection queue, prompting ERCOT to delay its Batch Zero review process for large-load projects. The queue totals about 474 GW, with roughly 90% from data centers, more than five times ERCOT’s record peak demand. The pause affects nearly 50 GW of projects and may delay ERCOT’s long-term load forecast and reliability assessment. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Asian thermal coal prices hit 2-year highs on winter stockpiling amid China/Indonesia supply curbs and Iran-driven gas-to-coal switch.
Asian thermal coal prices surge to 2-year high on winter stockpiling
Bloomberg / Business Times · Wed, Oct 14, 2026, 8:35 AM ET
Asian thermal coal prices reached a two-year high as utilities stockpile for winter amid supply disruptions in China and Indonesia. The IEA revised its 2026 global coal demand forecast upward to a 1.2% increase and record levels after the Iran conflict drove up oil and gas prices, prompting buyers to switch from natural gas. Newcastle futures closed Tuesday at the highest level since August 2024, up over 40% year-to-date. Read →
China Sep coal imports drop 6% YoY to 43.37 Mt
Reuters · Wed, Oct 14, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
China imported 43.37 million tonnes of coal in September, down 6% year-on-year, as high domestic inventories and reduced summer cooling demand cut needs. Indonesia supply constraints from production quotas and low river levels also limited availability. Year-to-date imports rose 2.2% to 353.54 million tonnes. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA October WASDE raised US corn yield to 181.2 bu/acre and production to 16.034B bushels, lifting ending stocks to 1.849B and pressuring prices lower.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 481 | -0.5% -2 |
+9.1% | +15.3% | -7.0% |
| Wheat | 665 | -0.6% -4 |
+31.2% | +33.4% | -8.2% |
| Soybeans | 1,290 | +0.4% +6 |
+25.1% | +28.1% | +6.9% |
| Sugar | 20.88 | -1.1% -0.23 |
+39.1% | +33.1% | +6.6% |
| Coffee | 293.5 | +0.3% +0.8 |
-15.9% | -25.7% | +40.2% |
| Cocoa | 5,854 | +2.1% +121 |
-3.5% | +0.8% | +127% |
| Cotton | 80.54 | +0.0% +0.03 |
+25.4% | +26.4% | -24.7% |
Soybeans fall as US Midwest harvest accelerates.
Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Chicago soybeans fell 0.3% to near $12.83 to 1/2 per bushel Tuesday as harvest activity picked up across the US Midwest after dry weather. The market is digesting last Friday’s USDA WASDE report that lifted the US soybean harvest estimate to a record. Traders await the weekly USDA crop progress report due after the close. Read →
Corn harvest at 33%, soybeans at 46% complete.
Mariah Squire · Agriculture.com · Mon, Oct 13, 2026
As of Oct. 11, US corn harvest reached 33% complete, up 10 points but 6 points behind the five-year average. Soybean harvest surged to 46% complete, up 21 points but still 4 points behind average. Winter wheat planting stands at 51% complete, 7 points behind average. Read →
USDA raises US corn crop to 407Mt.
Andrew Whitelaw · Farm Online · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
The October WASDE raised the US corn yield estimate to about 11.4 t/ha, pushing production to roughly 407Mt and ending stocks nearly 7Mt higher than September. Global corn ending stocks rose to 280.4Mt. Wheat prices softened despite a cut in Russian export forecasts to 40Mt, the lowest in five years. Read →
Grains ease after bearish WASDE report.
Ben Potter · Farm Progress · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
December corn settled at $4.8275 per bushel, down 0.25 cent, after light technical selling. November soybeans fell around 0.25 to 0.5% amid harvest progress and a Chinese auction signaling weaker import needs. December Chicago SRW wheat and KC HRW wheat each dropped 3 cents to $6.6925 and $7.1225. Read →
Fertilizers
What's moving · Middle East shipping disruptions and sulfur tightness sustain fertilizer price volatility.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea, China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,667 | -2.0% -34 |
-4.7% | +4.4% | -45.8% |
| Urea, Egypt FOB $/t |
500.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
-13.0% | +14.7% | -38.7% |
| Urea, Brazil CFR $/t |
476.00 | +0.2% +1.00 |
+16.8% | +12.3% | -40.1% |
| Urea, US Gulf FOB $/st |
433.50 | +0.2% +0.75 |
+12.1% | +14.2% | -38.7% |
| DAP, NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.6% | +17.6% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep fertilizer markets volatile.
Veronica Nigh · Iowa PBS / Market to Market · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
The Fertilizer Institute's Veronica Nigh said the Strait of Hormuz region supplies about 35% of global urea exports, 50% of sulfur and 20% of ammonia and phosphates. Disruptions have driven sulfur spot prices to around $1,100/ton from $400 to 500/ton earlier in 2026, forcing phosphate production cuts in Egypt, Brazil and India. This tightens supply for the 2027 planting season across nitrogen, phosphate and potash. Read →
Hormuz shutdown keeps fertilizer shipments near zero.
Global-Agriculture.com · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz stayed close to zero in early September, seven months after escalation. The waterway normally handles roughly one-third of seaborne urea and 50% of global sulfur. Sulfur prices remain above $1,000/ton, prompting phosphate output cuts elsewhere and tightening supply ahead of major planting seasons. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Chile mine strikes and Fed rate signals drive mixed base metals moves overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,846 | +0.1% +18 |
+19.6% | +35.4% | +45.4% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,760 | +0.1% +11 |
+16.2% | +38.2% | +54.7% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,116 | -0.2% -7 |
+4.7% | +19.3% | -0.8% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,404 | -0.5% -18 |
+13.3% | +23.7% | +8.5% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,653 | +0.1% +16 |
-7.6% | +3.3% | -20.3% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,154 | +0.3% +6 |
-2.2% | +1.9% | +8.0% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
50,932 | -3.1% -1,607 |
+21.2% | +44.0% | +33.0% |
Escondida strike looms after BHP wage talks fail.
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 14, 1:05 AM ET
Unions at BHP’s Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, said wage talks collapsed and a strike by over 1,000 supervisors starts Wednesday morning. The move compounds Chile supply disruptions from Centinela and recent incidents at Codelco’s El Teniente. Markets are watching for last-minute resolution. Read →
Lithium carbonate spot falls 3,400 yuan/mt on weak trade.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Oct 14, 3:44 AM ET
Battery-grade lithium carbonate spot averaged 108,250 yuan/mt after dropping 3,400 yuan/mt, with futures LC2701 closing down 4.34% at 100,900 yuan/mt. Weak buyer sentiment and ample long-term supply expectations weighed on prices despite ongoing social inventory destocking. The ninth consecutive decline signals persistent oversupply pressure. Read →
Tin leads base metals losses as LME/SHFE tin drop sharply.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Oct 14, 8:26 AM ET
LME tin fell 3.4% and SHFE tin plunged 3.52% overnight, with zinc and aluminum also declining while lead rose. Stronger dollar and cooling AI/tech sentiment pressured prices amid macro uncertainty. Lead bucked the trend on bullish positioning and inventory draws. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures fell 1.1% to 677 yuan/mt on Oct 13 as blast-furnace maintenance losses hit 1.90 million mt and freight rates dropped.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
89.1 | -0.4% -0.4 |
-11.5% | -8.8% | -13.3% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
398 | -0.4% -2 |
+1.0% | +3.8% | -49.7% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
425 | +0.0% -0 |
+3.0% | +4.5% | -46.8% |
Iron ore futures fall on ample supply, lower freight
Emily Ou Yong · Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
DCE January iron ore contract closed down 1.1% at 677 yuan per tonne; SGX November contract fell 0.64% to US$90.35 per tonne. Chinese port iron ore stocks rose 0.19% to 152.66 million tonnes. Lower freight rates and rising blast-furnace maintenance after the holiday cut near-term demand support. Read →
BF maintenance losses reach 1.90 million mt
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
DCE most-traded I2701 contract fell 1.1% to 677 yuan/mt; Qingdao port spot prices dropped 3 yuan/mt on average. Weekly blast-furnace maintenance impact on hot metal rose to 1.9011 million mt, up 78,600 mt week-on-week. Falling freight rates further eroded cost support for iron ore. Read →
DCE iron ore settles at 677 yuan/mt, down 1.1%
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
DCE most-traded contract closed at 677 yuan/mt, down 1.1%; Qingdao port spots fell 3 yuan/mt. SGX current-month contract at US$90.65/dmt. Traders reluctant to offer amid weak mill buying; port inventories remain elevated. Read →
Worldsteel cuts 2026 steel demand forecast
SteelOrbis · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
World Steel Association revised 2026 global steel demand to flat at 1,722 Mt from prior 0.3% growth forecast. China demand now seen contracting 2.0% to 780.1 Mt due to persistent property weakness and negative infrastructure investment. India demand forecast raised to +7.9% growth. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold holds near $4,160/oz ahead of US CPI data as Fed signals possible December hike.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,165 | -0.3% -12 |
-4.0% | -0.9% | +132% |
| Silver | 58.75 | -1.3% -0.78 |
-16.2% | +15.0% | +150% |
| Platinum | 1,662 | -0.5% -9 |
-18.3% | -0.4% | +58.2% |
| Palladium | 1,129 | +0.1% +1 |
-30.7% | -28.1% | -47.6% |
Gold holds steady near $4,160 ahead of CPI data.
CNBC / Reuters · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Spot gold stayed little changed at $4,159.45/oz as traders positioned ahead of the US CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET. New York Fed President John Williams said one more rate hike this year may be appropriate, though none in 2027. Oil rose above $106/bbl on Middle East attacks, keeping rate-hike odds in focus and capping bullion gains. Read →
Gold steadies near $4,170 after Fed remarks ease hike bets.
Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Bullion traded near $4,170/oz after holding a two-day decline. Fed New York President Williams signaled one more hike may be needed this year but not in 2027, tempering December odds and supporting prices. Brent crude stayed above $106/bbl amid Middle East tensions. Read →
China's record gold imports anchor physical demand.
USAGOLD · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Spot gold firmed to $4,184/oz on retreating dollar and yields. PBOC added 23 tonnes in September, its 23rd straight month of buying and largest since 2023. Chinese imports exceeded 1,000 tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, topping all of 2025 and underpinning physical demand. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's extended rare earth export truce to Jan 2027 and Lynas Brazil plant push drive ex-China magnet supply buildout.
Lynas advances Brazil rare earth separation plant with government backing
Gabriel García · MINING.COM · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths presented plans for a rare earth oxide separation plant in Brazil’s Minas Gerais state near Poços de Caldas, tied to its $672 million acquisition of Meteoric Resources’ Caldeira ionic-clay project. Brazil’s Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira and state development bank BNDES are evaluating financing and support for what could become one of the largest non-Chinese separation facilities. The move expands Lynas’ non-Chinese capacity for NdPr and heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, supporting friend-shoring of permanent magnet supply chains amid China’s processing dominance. Read →
China codifies rare earth controls as EU gains managed access
TechTimes · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
China’s October 2026 industrial guidelines formalize leverage over rare earths and critical minerals including gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite via export licensing and processing controls. The framework maintains the April 2025 licensing regime for heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium while the broader October 2025 package remains suspended until at least January 2027. This sustains pressure on Western magnet and EV supply chains while allowing selective managed flows to allies like the EU. Read →
Ex-China heavy rare earth prices surge on China export curbs
CRU Group · Wed, Oct 7, 2026
China’s export controls on heavy rare earths including dysprosium, terbium and yttrium since April 2025 have cut exports sharply, driving ex-China prices to large premiums over domestic Chinese benchmarks. CRU data shows yttrium ex-China prices heading toward 78 times Chinese levels in 2026, with similar divergence for dysprosium and terbium amid 99% Chinese heavy rare earth separation dominance. The gap accelerates offtake agreements, government funding and mine-to-magnet projects outside China by MP Materials and Lynas. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · US Gulf VLCC lumpsum hits record $81mn as Chinese restocking and Hormuz shuttle inefficiencies tighten tonnage.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.48M | +15.8% | +2395% | $245.3 | $33.47 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$590k | +37.5% | +1204% | $161.5 | $22.03 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$325k | +35.3% | +739% | $181.5 | $24.76 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$282k | +0.1% | +1167% | $185.1 | $24.85 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$206k | -1.2% | +1208% | $194.8 | $21.89 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$45k | -31.9% | +47.9% | $70.2 | $8.26 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -13.6% | +267% | $103.6 | $13.91 |
Report of Oct 8, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism, from the E.A. Gibson tanker report.
US Gulf VLCC lumpsum hits record $81mn on Asia demand.
Linh Nguyen · Argus via World Ports Org · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
A Sinokor VLCC fixed US Gulf to Asia-Pacific for late November at $81 million lumpsum, the highest since Argus began tracking in 2017 and up $17.75 million day-over-day. Chinese refiners ramped crude restocking from late September to meet Asia-Pacific product demand while Mideast Gulf flows face disruptions. The surge follows earlier all-time highs in Aframax and Suezmax segments and stems from inefficient Hormuz shuttle transfers plus Red Sea rerouting that lengthens voyages. Read →
BDI drops to 2,801 two-month low on Capesize weakness.
Finimize Newsroom · Finimize · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index fell 51 points to 2,801, its lowest since August 20, as the Capesize sub-index slid 154 points to 3,994 with average earnings down $1,396 to $32,719 per day. Iron ore futures also declined amid ample supply and high Chinese port stocks. Panamax held steady at 2,432 while Supramax rose 12 points to 1,833, showing weakness concentrated in large-bulk iron ore and coal lanes. Read →
VLCC rates hold near records amid Hormuz attacks.
Lloyd's List · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Baltic Exchange VLCC, Suezmax and Atlantic Aframax indexes steadied near peaks while Pacific Aframax continued rising. DHT booked 50% of its Q4 VLCC spot days at $509,100 per day, triple its Q3 average, lifting owner stocks. Iranian attacks on Hormuz shuttle traffic sustain high rates but raise concerns rates may stay elevated too long to support sustained demand. Read →
Environment
What's moving · RGGI allowances hover near $40 as market enters shoulder season with directionless trade.
RGGI allowances hover near $40 in shoulder season.
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
RGGI Allowance futures returned to levels around the $40 mark over the last week and stayed within recent ranges. The market is entering shoulder season with limited directional momentum. Prices reflect balanced supply-demand amid seasonal power demand shifts. Read →
California GHG disclosure rule takes effect Oct 12.
Carbon Pulse · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
California’s regulation requiring large companies to disclose GHG emissions took effect Monday after state approval. The first Scope 1 and 2 reporting deadline is November 10, 2026, for U.S. firms with over $1 billion revenue doing business in the state. The rule boosts transparency and may influence compliance strategies in linked carbon markets. Read →
France delays EU ETS2 implementation ahead of election.
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
France is delaying EU ETS2 implementation under pressure from the far-right to avoid backlash before next year’s presidential election. It continues measures supporting electric mobility and heating that drew Brussels praise. The move adds uncertainty to the 2028 launch of the buildings and road transport carbon market. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC FAQ update greenlights tokenized assets for customer funds and blockchain recordkeeping, boosting RWA commodity adoption.
CFTC updates FAQs to allow tokenized assets as customer funds and blockchain rec
CFTC · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
CFTC divisions clarified that futures commission merchants and clearing organizations may invest customer funds in tokenized versions of Regulation 1.25 permitted assets if they deliver equivalent legal and economic rights and meet all other tests. Staff also confirmed blockchain or distributed ledger technology satisfies recordkeeping rules under Regulations 1.31 and 45.2 when systems ensure authenticity and reliability. The move structurally opens regulated U.S. commodity firms to tokenized gold, oil and other physical assets without new legislation. Read →
Tokenized commodity holders surpass 452,000 wallets worldwide.
Anush Jafer · Cryptopolitan · Tue, Oct 6, 2026
Wallets holding tokenized commodities reached 452,931, up 3.6x from 126,000 a year earlier and with roughly 200,000 added in the last two months per rwa.xyz. Tether Gold leads with 143,973 holders; non-gold tokens tracking oil, silver and copper now total about 42,000 holders combined. Robinhood’s tokenized United States Oil Fund alone has 15,211 holders, signaling broadening retail and institutional access beyond precious metals. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Trading houses lock in copper supply with $250M Congo prepay as BP slashes net debt to 2027 target early on trading and refining gains.
Mercuria seals $250M Congo copper offtake with Chinese miner
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Mercuria Energy Group agreed a $250 million prepayment deal to buy copper from units of Shanghai Jayson New Energy Materials Group in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The transaction exemplifies trading houses advancing large upfront sums to secure physical copper amid soaring prices and regional price differentials. It underscores accelerating efforts by merchants to lock in critical-minerals supply for the energy transition. Read →
TC Energy closes First Nations stake sale in Coastal GasLink
James Rose · Financial Post · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
TC Energy closed a deal giving five British Columbia First Nations an economic interest in the Coastal GasLink natural gas pipeline that feeds LNG Canada. A second similar transaction with additional nations is slated for Q4. The move converts future toll revenue into near-term capital while deepening Indigenous ownership in a key LNG-supply artery. Read →
Murphy reports Ivorian appraisal, Vietnam discovery and first oil
energy-pedia / Rigzone · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
Murphy Oil announced an 88-foot net oil pay appraisal at Bubale West-1X offshore Côte d’Ivoire, a 131-foot net oil discovery at Lac Da Trang North-1X offshore Vietnam, and first oil from the Lac Da Vang field in Vietnam plus startup of the Chinook #8 well in the U.S. Gulf. The results expand Murphy’s offshore production base and appraisal inventory across West Africa and Southeast Asia. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump diesel deal with Russia sparks bipartisan backlash over legality and sanctions law
Trump Russia diesel deal raises legality questions
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 13, 2026
President Trump announced a deal with Putin for Russia to supply diesel to ease US fuel prices amid Iran war disruptions. The move temporarily lifts sanctions on Russian diesel but conflicts with a 2022 law banning such imports until Russia ends aggression in Ukraine. It raises questions about executive authority to waive sanctions ahead of midterms. Read →
Lawmakers question Trump Russia diesel deal legality
Max Fillion · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Oct 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Bipartisan Senate Foreign Relations Committee members say the diesel import deal violates a 2022 law requiring Russia to end Ukraine aggression first. The planned volumes equal roughly 100,000 to 125,000 barrels per day, too small to ease record diesel prices significantly. Futures showed minimal reaction to the announcement. Read →
GOP senators urge reversal of Russia diesel deal
Reuters · Mon, Oct 13, 2026
A dozen senators including six Republicans called on Trump to rescind the diesel deal and instead impose new sanctions under the Lindsey Graham Act by the Oct 18 deadline. They described it as a betrayal of allies that funds Russia's war. The administration must decide on sanctions or a national interest waiver. Read →
GOP revolt grows over Trump Russia diesel deal
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 13, 2026
Twelve senators including six Republicans wrote urging Trump to rescind the Putin diesel deal reached weeks after signing a law authorizing stiff sanctions on Russian oil buyers. The move risks rifts with allies and Ukraine while offering limited supply relief before Nov 3 midterms. Read →
Trump diesel deal unlikely to cut prices much
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 13, 2026
The agreement to lift sanctions and allow Russian diesel exports drew criticism from Ukraine and European leaders for financing Moscow's war. Volumes announced are modest relative to global deficits driven by Middle East and Ukraine conflicts, unlikely to meaningfully lower US diesel prices. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Diesel cracks surge $12/bbl to over $100 vs Brent
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 13
Oil traders on X highlight a sharp $12/bbl jump in New York Harbor diesel crack spreads versus Brent, pushing them above $100/bbl in one session. This reflects extreme volatility from geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and refinery issues, with participants calling it typical of the current distorted market conditions. Read →
ME crude exports swing sharply in 2026 tanker data
X / @TankerTrackers · Tue, Oct 13
Tanker tracking data shared widely in #OOTT circles details monthly Middle East crude exports (Iran, Iraq, Saudi, etc.) fluctuating from highs near 19 mb/d early in the year to lows around 6 to 8 mb/d mid-year before rebounding to 17+ mb/d in October. Traders discuss implications of attacks on vessels, Hormuz traffic, and sanctions for supply flows. Read →
Pickering shares Oct energy note on geopolitics and prices
X / @pickeringenergy · Tue, Oct 13
Dan Pickering releases his latest monthly energy commentary covering Iran conflict, Houthi actions, oil/diesel price moves, deal dynamics and 'scarcity value' in energy stocks. #OOTT traders and analysts engage with the update amid ongoing Middle East tensions. Read →
Silver ripe for reversal per GoldFix rundown
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 13
Precious metals discussion on X focuses on silver's technical setup, with a Substack analysis suggesting it may be positioned for a reversal. Traders note recent price action and broader commodity context including gold stability. Read →
Ukraine hits Russian oil depot in Belgorod amid ceasefire claims
X / multiple traders · Tue, Oct 13
#OOTT and energy accounts circulate reports of Ukraine launching over 500 drones, striking a Russian oil depot in Belgorod and setting it ablaze, the first such energy infrastructure hit since US 'energy ceasefire' announcements. Traders debate implications for Russian supply, diesel markets and broader conflict escalation. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Sankey on CNBC: Middle East impact on oil/gas
Paul Sankey, Sankey Research on CNBC Squawk Box · Tue, Oct 13
Saudis flag major global oil inventory problem. Watch/Listen →
RaboResearch on Oct WASDE corn/yields update
Carlos Mera, RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast · Wed, Oct 13
USDA upward US corn yield revision. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
14%
-3pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
81%
+6pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
18%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
19%
+2pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
7%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
8%
-4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
18%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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