Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Monday, October 12, 2026 · 52 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,872
+0.2%
+12 |
Dollar Index
102.33
+0.1%
+0.12 |
EUR/USD
1.1191
-0.1%
-0.0015 |
US 10Y Yield
5.244
+1.3 bp
|
Last price as of Mon, Oct 12, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures; the dollar index, EUR/USD and the 10-year yield are cash. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Crude choppy over the weekend following Houthis hitting Saudis main civilian airport. The Trump diesel deal with Russia has minimal impact on markets.
Isobutane up $0.066 (+3.8%).
US Nat Gas down $0.086 (-2.7%) as supply impact from hurricane stayed limited.
N-Butane up $0.032 (+2.0%).
Urea, China (ZCE) down $30 (-1.7%) on softer domestic spot prices.
Tin up $894 (+1.7%) on LME rebound and SHFE recovery after heavy-volume decline.
Isobutane up $0.066 (+3.8%).
US Nat Gas down $0.086 (-2.7%) as supply impact from hurricane stayed limited.
N-Butane up $0.032 (+2.0%).
Urea, China (ZCE) down $30 (-1.7%) on softer domestic spot prices.
Tin up $894 (+1.7%) on LME rebound and SHFE recovery after heavy-volume decline.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Copper rises on rate-hike relief, Chile mine incident
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 12, 4:02 AM ET
Copper prices extended gains Monday, climbing as much as 0.6% as lower oil prices eased expectations for further central bank rate hikes to combat inflation. Traders also assessed supply risks after a fatal landslide at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile prompted partial suspension of operations in the south pit sector. Read →
Gold edges higher on oil drop, energy ceasefire talk
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 12, 12:38 AM ET
Gold traded near $4,200 an ounce Monday, edging higher as sliding oil prices and President Trump's claim of an immediate 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine reduced near-term inflation pressures. Bullion had risen 1.3% the prior week amid broader geopolitical risks. Read →
Isaias kills four, knocks out power to 670k after landfall
Reuters · Sat, Oct 10
Hurricane Isaias made landfall early Saturday as a Category 3 storm near Destin, Florida, killing at least four people and leaving around 670,000 without power across Florida, Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. Gulf of Mexico oil and natural gas production remained heavily disrupted, with roughly 69% of oil output and 57% of gas output still shut in Saturday. Read →
Houthis kill 12 in deadliest Riyadh airport strike in decade
Summer Said · Wall Street Journal · Sat, Oct 10
Iran-backed Houthi militants struck Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Saturday, killing at least 12 people and injuring hundreds in the deadliest attack on Saudi Arabia in more than a decade. The Saudi-led coalition vowed a response as attacks on airports escalated tensions in the region. Read →
Trump claims energy ceasefire, Russia diesel exports
Bloomberg · Sun, Oct 11
President Trump announced Sunday an 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine effective immediately, following a deal for Russia to supply diesel to global markets. The moves, including a temporary sanctions waiver on Russian fuel, aim to ease high diesel prices ahead of U.S. midterms but drew bipartisan criticism and lacked immediate confirmation from Moscow or Kyiv. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
2. JKM futures post record trade volumes on tender activity, inter-hub price swings Global Nat Gas & LNG
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 5US Natural Gas 4Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 1Coal 2Agriculture 3Fertilizers 3Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 1Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 2Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 4Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Oil slips as Trump energy ceasefire and Russian diesel deal ease supply fears despite Houthi attacks and Hormuz tanker strikes.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 92.39 | +0.6% +0.54 |
+60.9% | +55.3% | +14.6% |
| Brent | 105.32 | +0.6% +0.60 |
+73.1% | +66.3% | +26.3% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.299 | +0.1% +0.004 |
+85.1% | +71.2% | +32.4% |
| Heating Oil | 4.645 | -2.0% -0.094 |
+119% | +106% | +85.1% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
46.16 | -0.8% -0.39 |
+165% +28.71 |
+115% +24.71 |
+92.6% +22.19 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
102.69 | -4.2% -4.47 |
+225% +71.05 |
+193% +67.69 |
+314% +77.91 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
65.00 | -2.6% -1.75 |
+193% +42.82 |
+150% +39.04 |
+168% +40.77 |
Oil slips on Russian diesel hopes amid Mideast strikes
Weilun Soon · Bloomberg via Energy Connects · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Brent crude slipped toward $103 per barrel and WTI traded below $91 as traders weighed resilient Persian Gulf exports near pre-war levels against renewed Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport and a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump’s claim of an immediate Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and a US-Russia diesel supply deal added downward pressure, though Zelenskyy awaits details and volumes remain small relative to global demand. Middle East crude exports have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels per JPMorgan, limiting the immediate supply impact. Read →
Oil falls on Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire hopes
Farhan Rafid · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
December Brent futures fell 0.2% to $104.53 per barrel and WTI dropped 0.4% to $90.69 per barrel as markets assessed prospects for more Russian diesel supplies and a potential energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Brent briefly climbed above $105.50 after Houthi attacks on Riyadh airport but reversed gains amid the supply optimism. Persistent Middle East risks, including tanker attacks, continued to support prices above $100 for Brent. Read →
Oil rises on Houthi strikes and Hormuz tanker attacks
Florence Tan · Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Brent rose 0.73% to $105.48 per barrel and WTI gained 0.64% to $92.44 per barrel early Monday after Houthis claimed responsibility for a strike on Riyadh airport that killed 13 and injured hundreds, with a follow-up attack reported Sunday. Two tankers were hit over the weekend in the Strait of Hormuz and near Sohar, Oman, threatening to slow the September recovery in Middle East exports. Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, citing a risk premium of over $20. Read →
Brent near $104 after Trump Russian diesel deal
AP News · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Brent steadied near $104 per barrel while WTI traded around $91.50 as President Trump’s announcement of a deal to buy Russian diesel drew bipartisan criticism from US senators. Trump said Russia would supply over 300,000 tons immediately, plus 500,000 tons in November and more later, aiming to ease fuel price pressure ahead of midterms. The move followed his claim of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, though volumes are tiny compared with global diesel needs. Read →
Oil drops on Russian diesel supply expectations
Ronnie Harui and Sherry Qin · Morningstar via Dow Jones · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Front-month Brent fell 1.2% to $103.43 per barrel and WTI dropped 1.6% to $90.37 per barrel in Asia despite Houthi missile attacks on Riyadh airport that killed at least 12. Hopes that Russia would lift a partial diesel export ban and ship hundreds of thousands of tons provided relief to a tight diesel market. Analysts noted the announced volumes are small and depend on Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries continuing. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · EIA's larger-than-expected 85 Bcf storage build and easing Isaias shut-ins weigh on Henry Hub futures near $3.17/MMBtu.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.134 | -2.7% -0.086 |
-15.0% | +0.5% | -43.1% |
US natgas futures fall to $3.15 after Isaias high
Judith Sib-at · Trading Economics · Mon, Oct 12, 2:17 AM ET
US natural gas futures fell to around $3.15/MMBtu Monday after hitting a two-week high on Gulf supply disruptions from Hurricane Isaias. Producers shut in 1.3 Bcf/d or 59% of offshore Gulf output, but overall US supply impact stayed limited as offshore volumes represent just 2% of marketed production. EIA data showed an 85 Bcf storage injection for the week ended Oct. 2, above the 79 Bcf expectation, while October LNG feedgas averaged 17.1 Bcf/d, down from September's 18.0 Bcf/d due to Freeport and Cove Point maintenance. Read →
Appalachia and California spots fall as Henry Hub holds premium
Andrew Baker · Natural Gas Intelligence · Thu, Oct 8, 5:08 PM ET
Physical natural gas prices declined Thursday led by pipeline-constrained Appalachia and California hubs. Henry Hub reclaimed a premium to NYMEX settlement amid the broader downtrend. Pipeline outages including Texas Eastern Line 15 in Kentucky continue to bottle up Appalachian supply, keeping regional cash prices under pressure into early November. Read →
Natgas futures rise 1.6% to $3.22 on Isaias shut-ins
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Fri, Oct 9
November natural gas futures settled up 1.6% at $3.22/MMBtu Friday, their highest close since Sept. 24, as Hurricane Isaias prompted evacuation of offshore platforms and shut in 1.3 Bcf/d of Gulf output. The storm's mixed effects include potential demand losses from outages and flooding that offset some supply tightness, while LNG exports face shipping delays. Read →
Natgas futures drop 1.1% after 85 Bcf EIA build
Kirk Maltais · Wall Street Journal · Thu, Oct 8
Natural gas futures settled down 1.1% at $3.168/MMBtu Thursday after the EIA reported an 85 Bcf injection for the week ended Oct. 2, above the 79 Bcf WSJ analyst consensus. Inventories reached 3,500 Bcf, 68 Bcf above the five-year average but 130 Bcf below year-ago levels, trimming some bullish momentum ahead of the Isaias storm. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane futures settle at 98.3¢/gal (+1.1%) on export rebound and stock draw.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.286 | +1.1% +0.003 |
+20.6% | +0.6% | -34.4% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
0.983 | +1.1% +0.011 |
+59.3% | +45.6% | -32.7% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.599 | +2.0% +0.032 |
+115% | +89.3% | +0.2% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.806 | +3.8% +0.066 |
+132% | +107% | +13.0% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.160 | -0.3% -0.007 |
+84.3% | +68.4% | +13.1% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 8 | +1 | +9 | unch | +1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 70 | +2 | +42 | +31 | -26 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -682 | -1 | -378 | -374 | -268 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -391 | +3 | -225 | -215 | -400 |
| C5 as % WTI | 98 | -1 | +13 | +8 | -1 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
US ethane exports reach record 814,000 b/d in August
Emily Carter · Argus Media / World Ports Organization · Sat, Oct 10, 2026
Kpler data show US ethane exports hit a new record of 814,000 b/d in August, up from 620,000 b/d in July. Shipments to China totaled 618,000 b/d amid higher regional ethylene capacity and naphtha prices. Enterprise Morgan’s Point loaded a record 332,000 b/d while Energy Transfer Nederland shipped 217,000 b/d. Read →
Aramco halts Juaymah LPG exports after facility damage
World Energy News · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
Saudi Aramco suspended LPG exports from its Juaymah terminal after structural damage to propane and butane delivery systems. Deliveries scheduled for coming weeks were cancelled while the company evaluates scope and impact. The outage affects a key supply point for buyers in Japan, Korea and India. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF jumps 1.2% to €82.4/MWh on tight EU storage at 73.6% and Hormuz LNG disruptions.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
82.78 | +1.6% +1.34 |
+194% | +163% | -3.3% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
27.15 | +1.6% +0.44 |
+194% | +163% | -3.3% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
25.98 | +0.1% +0.03 |
+170% | +135% | -21.0% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sat, Oct 10
EU gas storage is 73.6% full, 832 TWh in store, 15.0 points below the five-year average for this date and 9.3 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 59.8%.
EU full 73.6% +0.14 pts d/d | Year ago 82.9% | 5-yr avg 88.6% same date |
Germany 59.8% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Ras Laffan damage points to months-long Qatari LNG outage
EMSNow · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Severe damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex will likely keep production below nameplate for months even after any Hormuz reopening, according to Wood Mackenzie. Analysts warn TTF could average EUR 60 to 100/MWh depending on repair timelines and buyer caution. The outage tightens global LNG supply, supporting European benchmark prices ahead of winter. Read →
EU storage at record low may force 7% winter demand cut
Euronews · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
EU gas storage stood at 72.4% full on Oct 3, the lowest for the date since records began in 2011. IEEFA estimates storage will supply 7.3 bcm less gas this winter than last, potentially requiring a 7% demand reduction or extra €3 billion in imports. Hormuz disruptions and the impending Russian LNG ban from 2027 compound the tight balance. Read →
Europe enters winter with record-low storage amid Hormuz closure
World Ports Organization · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
EU storage is at 67% full, far below the 80% December target and seasonal norms, with Shell and Equinor executives highlighting vulnerability. Hormuz closure has cut 36 mt of Qatari/UAE LNG supply this year, forcing Europe to compete harder with Asia for US cargoes. A cold winter could require demand destruction or sharp price spikes. Read →
JKM holds at $25.98/MMBtu with TTF-JKM arb near $2
EnergyRiskIQ · Sun, Oct 12, 2026
JKM rose 0.12% to $25.98/MMBtu, with the arb spread showing a modest JKM premium of $2/MMBtu over TTF equivalent. EU storage at 73.6% (below 92% norm) limits European bidding power for Pacific cargoes. Neutral sentiment reflects balanced but tight Atlantic-Pacific dynamics heading into winter. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM real-time prices spike to $897/MWh in BGE zone amid data-center driven load surge and capacity shortfall.
French day-ahead power averages €196/MWh Monday
Selectra · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
EPEX SPOT day-ahead prices in France averaged €196/MWh on Monday, up 54% from Sunday, with a low of €149/MWh at 13:00 and peak near €280/MWh in evening hours. No negative prices occurred. France ranked fifth among tracked European zones, with Italy highest at €232/MWh and Spain lowest at €152/MWh. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China thermal coal hits 1,004 yuan/t three-year high on tight supply and Indonesia disruptions.
China thermal coal hits three-year high at 1,004 yuan/t.
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 12, 4:20 AM ET
China’s benchmark power-station thermal coal price reached 1,004 yuan ($150) per ton Monday, the first time above 1,000 yuan in two years and up 25% since mid-July. Sluggish domestic production growth and supply disruptions from top exporter Indonesia coincide with an energy rally tied to the US-Iran conflict. The move tightens the seaborne market for importers and supports higher Newcastle and API2 benchmarks heading into winter. Read →
NTPC to buy 10 MT coal from commercial mines in H2 FY27.
Indian Masterminds / CNBC TV18 · Tue, Oct 7
India’s largest power producer NTPC plans to source 10 million tonnes of coal from captive and commercial mines in the second half of FY27 amid critically low stocks at its plants. Standalone fleet stocks stood at 4.58 MT on Oct 5, or 36% of normative levels and enough for roughly six days. The move diversifies supply beyond Coal India as NTPC’s annual requirement rises toward 300 MT to meet surging power demand. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Wheat rallies on Russian frost damage and Egypt tender as corn sags on surprise USDA yield hike.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 482 | +0.5% +2 |
+9.5% | +17.3% | -7.8% |
| Wheat | 672 | +0.1% +1 |
+32.5% | +35.3% | -8.4% |
| Soybeans | 1,285 | -0.6% -7 |
+24.7% | +27.5% | +7.2% |
| Sugar | 20.47 | +1.1% +0.22 |
+36.4% | +31.1% | +2.0% |
| Coffee | 287.2 | +0.1% +0.3 |
-17.6% | -25.4% | +34.7% |
| Cocoa | 5,759 | +1.7% +94 |
-5.0% | -1.1% | +115% |
| Cotton | 79.57 | -1.2% -0.97 |
+24.7% | +26.0% | -24.7% |
Wheat falls on Trump Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire comments.
Bloomberg · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Chicago wheat futures dropped as much as 1.3% after President Trump said Russia and Ukraine agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire, easing Black Sea supply disruption fears. Russia and Ukraine supply over 25% of global wheat exports. USDA's higher corn output forecast added pressure. Read →
Corn plunges after USDA hikes US yield and production.
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
USDA raised 2026 corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre and production to 16.034 billion bushels, well above analyst expectations of 177.7 bushels per acre and 15.721 billion bushels. Ending stocks rose 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion. December corn fell over 20 cents, the largest drop since 2023. Read →
Egypt relaunches wheat tender seeking Black Sea supplies.
Reuters · Sun, Oct 12, 2026
Egypt’s GASC announced a new international wheat tender with offers due November 4 for shipments from late November into December. It is the first tender since an August auction that secured only 7% of the targeted volume. The move follows direct purchases including 480,000 tons of Russian wheat. Read →
Fertilizers
What's moving · India urea tender offers drop sharply to $352 to 356/t CFR as Chinese supply floods in, pressuring global nitrogen prices.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea, China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,713 | -1.7% -30 |
-2.1% | +7.3% | -43.6% |
| Urea, Egypt FOB $/t |
507.50 | -1.0% -5.00 |
-11.7% | +16.5% | -37.0% |
| Urea, Brazil CFR $/t |
473.00 | +0.1% +0.50 |
+16.1% | +11.7% | -40.1% |
| Urea, US Gulf FOB $/st |
427.25 | +0.5% +2.00 |
+10.5% | +12.3% | -39.5% |
| DAP, NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.3% +2.50 |
+28.4% | +4.5% | +17.6% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
India urea offers plunge to $352/t CFR amid China surge.
La Razón · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Indian Potash Limited received urea import offers as low as $352.10/t CFR east coast and $356.25/t west coast in its latest tender, nearly 10% below August levels. Offers totaled 5.35 million tonnes against 1.7 million tonnes sought, driven by expanded Chinese export availability. The drop signals easing nitrogen costs for buyers in Brazil, Argentina and elsewhere heading into planting. Read →
Sulfur tops $1,000/t, lifting US Corn Belt DAP to $850/t.
Paulson, N., G. Schnitkey, C. Zulauf and A. Dhakal · farmdoc daily / New Herald · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Sulfur spot prices have exceeded $1,000/t, up over 130% since early 2026 and 300% since August 2025, due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions and export curbs by China and Russia. This has pushed US Corn Belt DAP prices to $850/t, up more than 20% from earlier 2026 levels. High sulfur and ammonia costs continue squeezing phosphate margins and farmer affordability for 2027 crops. Read →
Hormuz closure idles 2 Mt urea output, strands 1 Mt cargoes.
Gus Trompiz and Naveen Thukral · MillingandMillers.com / Reuters · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
The Iran conflict has halted urea output from Qatar’s giant plant and other Gulf facilities, removing at least 2 million tonnes of annual seaborne supply, with nearly 1 million tonnes of loaded fertilizer still stuck in the Gulf. Sulfur and ammonia flows are also curtailed. Low grain prices leave farmers unable to absorb higher costs, prompting cuts in applications or acreage shifts that threaten 2027 harvests. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Chile mine avalanche and easing rate-hike bets lift copper as LME/SHFE prices rise overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,925 | +1.2% +172 |
+20.2% | +32.7% | +56.4% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,767 | +0.7% +104 |
+16.3% | +38.2% | +54.7% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,133 | +0.6% +18 |
+5.3% | +20.0% | -0.3% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,462 | +1.2% +40 |
+15.3% | +25.8% | +10.3% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,671 | -0.7% -105 |
-7.5% | +3.4% | -20.2% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,140 | +0.0% +1 |
-2.9% | +1.2% | +7.2% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
52,705 | +1.7% +894 |
+25.5% | +49.0% | +37.6% |
LME tin leads broad base metals rally overnight
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
LME tin surged 3.02%, copper rose 1.68%, zinc 2.32% and lead 1.37% in overnight trading on short covering. SHFE copper gained 0.84% and zinc 1.39% with similar momentum. The moves followed easing Middle East tensions and persistent mine supply concerns. Read →
Aluminum prices rebound from lows on mixed factors
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
SHFE aluminum rose 0.96% to 23,605 yuan/t and LME aluminum edged up 0.18% to $3,062.50/t as prices rebounded from recent lows. Overseas aluminum output fell 2.4% YoY in September due to lower Middle East smelter loads, though monthly production rebounded. High US yields and a strong dollar continue to weigh on the sector. Read →
LME zinc rebounds as bears cut positions
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
LME zinc climbed 2.47% to $3,801.50/t on Friday as short positions were reduced and the lower Bollinger Band provided support. LME zinc stocks fell 575 t to 126,850 t. SHFE zinc rose 1.08% in tandem with the overseas move. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Chinese steel mills' post-holiday restocking expectations lift SGX iron ore to $91.20/t and DCE to ¥684.50/t.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
90.3 | -0.1% -0.1 |
-10.3% | -7.6% | -12.2% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
399 | +0.6% +2 |
+1.3% | +4.2% | -49.6% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
427 | +0.4% +2 |
+3.5% | +5.0% | -46.6% |
Iron ore rises on Chinese steel mill restocking hopes
Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
DCE most-traded iron ore contract rose 0.15% to ¥684.50/t and SGX November contract gained 0.67% to $91.20/t on Monday. Gains followed expectations that more Chinese mills will rebuild feedstock stocks this week after subdued post-National Day restocking, aided by falling spot coke prices narrowing mill losses. Gains capped by Q4 supply ramp-up from miners meeting targets. Read →
Iron ore bulls face perfect storm at support
David Scutt · FOREX.com · Mon, Oct 12, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Chinese steelmaker profitability remains dire with only 6.93% of mills profitable per Mysteel survey; average rebar margins -¥204/t and HRC -¥213/t. Port iron ore inventories rose 1 Mt to 173.15 Mt last week. October historically weakest month for Dalian iron ore futures with average -4.68% return since 2014, pressuring prices testing ¥683 to 690 support zone. Read →
Baosteel holds HRC list prices steady for Nov
Mysteel · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel), listed arm of China Baowu, kept November domestic HRC and other flat-rolled list prices unchanged from October. Move signals cautious pricing amid weak post-holiday demand, rising steel inventories and lackluster end-user offtake for rebar and HRC. Chinese major steel prices remained weak overall Oct 8 to 10. Read →
China steel mills ramp rebar exports in Oct
SMM · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
October rebar export schedules at sampled mills reached 805,000 mt, up 230,000 mt month-on-month, including 420,000 mt steel billet exports up 50% MoM. Mills in northeast and east China boost overseas sales to ease domestic pressure from weak construction demand and high inventories. Planned October rebar output down 1.77% MoM to 6.8366 Mt. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · China's PBOC added 21 to 23 tonnes of gold in September, its largest monthly purchase in three years, extending a 23-month buying streak.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,200 | -0.4% -16 |
-3.2% | +1.6% | +139% |
| Silver | 60.98 | -0.1% -0.07 |
-13.1% | +21.6% | +171% |
| Platinum | 1,699 | +0.4% +6 |
-16.5% | +1.8% | +68.3% |
| Palladium | 1,154 | +0.3% +3 |
-29.2% | -23.6% | -43.7% |
China gold imports hit record pace amid diversification push
CNBC · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
China spent a record $158.8 billion importing over 1,000 tonnes of gold in the first eight months of 2026, exceeding all of 2025. The PBOC added about 23 tonnes in September, its biggest monthly purchase in nearly three years, extending a 23-month streak. Official and private buying supports prices by hedging dollar dependence and providing a safe-haven alternative in a weak domestic economy. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Pentagon eyes $725M loan to Energy Fuels for U.S. rare earth processing amid stockpiling push.
Arafura signs 850 t/y NdPr offtake deal linked to U.S. Project Vault.
Marleny Arnoldi · Mining Weekly · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Arafura Rare Earths secured a binding five-year offtake for up to 850 tonnes per year of NdPr oxide from its Nolans project in Australia’s Northern Territory, up from 500 t/y in a May term sheet. The deal with a global trader tapped under the U.S. Project Vault initiative links pricing to seaborne indices and includes heavy rare earths. First production is targeted for early-to-mid 2029. Read →
Ex-Im approves $2.9B loan to Perpetua for Idaho antimony-gold project.
Dan Dupont · Inside U.S. Trade · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
The U.S. Export-Import Bank approved a $2.9 billion loan to Perpetua Resources for its Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho, positioned as the first domestic source of defense-grade antimony. The financing falls under the Make More in America Initiative after congressional review. It advances U.S. efforts to secure antimony supply amid China export pressures. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · VLCC rates slip from record highs as Hormuz workarounds ease slightly, pressuring US crude arbitrage to Asia.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.48M | +15.8% | +2395% | $245.3 | $33.47 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$590k | +37.5% | +1204% | $161.5 | $22.03 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$325k | +35.3% | +739% | $181.5 | $24.76 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$282k | +0.1% | +1167% | $185.1 | $24.85 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$206k | -1.2% | +1208% | $194.8 | $21.89 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$45k | -31.9% | +47.9% | $70.2 | $8.26 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -13.6% | +267% | $103.6 | $13.91 |
Report of Oct 8, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism, from the E.A. Gibson tanker report.
VLCC rates ease from record after Hormuz-driven spike
Irina Slav · OilPrice.com · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VLCC charter from US Gulf Coast to China fell to $634,974 per day from over $637,000 on Oct 8. Rates surged earlier due to ship-to-ship transfers bypassing the closed Strait of Hormuz and Atlantic arbitrage flows. Soaring costs now curb Asian demand for US crude despite limited alternatives. Read →
Chemical tanker Ivyan halts Bosphorus traffic after engine failure
PortNews · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
The 6,613-dwt Malta-flagged Ivyan lost propulsion near Kanlica while carrying 6,000 tonnes of vegetable oil from Varna to Monopoli. Turkish authorities suspended traffic both ways, deployed tugs, and towed the vessel to anchorage. Bosphorus reopened after the incident on Oct 11. Read →
BDI falls to six-week low on Capesize weakness
Emily Carter · World Ports Organization · Sun, Oct 11, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index dropped 56 points or 1.9% to 2,917 on Friday, its lowest since Aug 24. Capesize index fell 172 points to 4,340 with daily earnings down $1,560 to $35,860. Iron ore prices hit multi-month lows on weak Chinese steel demand and rising supply. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU Environment Council convenes on ETS review amid policy debates and free-allocation progress.
EU states advance 2026 free EUA issuance to 85%.
Carbon Pulse · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
EU member states issued nearly 85% of scheduled 2026 free EU Allowances to industrial installations in the two weeks ending Oct. 8, per European Commission data. Free allocations support compliance entities and influence net demand in the EUA market. Steady progress reduces uncertainty around 2026 supply. Read →
EUAs post weekly gain, hold technical levels.
Carbon Pulse · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
EU carbon prices rose marginally on Oct. 9 but recorded a solid weekly gain, trading in a narrow range and focusing on technical support while ignoring broader energy volatility. The Dec contract maintained its position above key trend lines. This reflects resilient positioning ahead of policy clarity. Read →
EU backs fossil subsidy phaseout, caps ETS2 volatility.
Carbon Pulse · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
EU finance ministers called for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies ahead of COP31 and approved measures to limit price volatility in the upcoming ETS2 for road transport and heating fuels before its 2028 launch. The steps aim to stabilize the new market and align with broader climate goals. ETS2 futures saw increased trading activity. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid oil perpetuals surge past $1.4B daily volume amid geopolitical tensions, outpacing most crypto markets.
Hyperliquid oil perps volume surges 533% to $1.4B
Ahmed Balaha · Hot Paths · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Hyperliquid’s CL-USDC crude oil perpetual contract recorded daily volume near $1.39 billion, second only to Bitcoin on the platform, fueled by geopolitical tensions driving energy price moves. The surge followed a portfolio margin system upgrade that improves capital efficiency and risk management during volatility. Open interest across the platform reached about $1.2 billion as traders use the 24/7 on-chain venue for oil exposure when traditional exchanges are closed. Read →
On-chain oil futures hit $1B+ weekend volume on Hyperliquid
Staff · The Markets Cafe · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Hyperliquid’s builder-deployed commodity perpetuals, including WTI crude and Brent, now process more than $1 billion in daily volume on weekends when CME and ICE markets are offline. Executives at Theo note growing participation from traditional finance traders seeking real-time macro exposure via personal accounts. While on-chain venues provide continuous price discovery, traditional exchanges retain the bulk of institutional liquidity and depth for large trades. Read →
Tokenized oil expands beyond gold with new lending products
CoinDesk · Fri, Oct 10, 2026
Energy Substantiation launched a physically backed WTI crude token on Solana on Oct. 2, representing one barrel per token from verified inventory, with natural gas and Brent versions in development. Paxos Labs and Theo are advancing yield-bearing gold and silver tokens via lending to institutional borrowers. The tokenized commodities sector reached $5.55 billion market cap by end-March 2026, still dominated by gold but expanding into energy financing and hedging use cases. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · TotalEnergies and Eni announce major asset deals and portfolio expansions in renewables and upstream gas amid active M&A in oil, gas and mining sectors.
TotalEnergies adds 700 MW solar to KKR US JV for $1.2B
Dimitri Rhodes · Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
TotalEnergies and KKR agreed to add three utility-scale solar assets in Texas and Ohio, totaling 700 MW, to their 50/50 US joint venture created in 2025. The portfolio has an enterprise value of $1.2 billion, with assets expected online by Q1 2027 and already contracted or to be marketed by TotalEnergies. TotalEnergies will operate the assets post-completion, expanding the JV to about 2.1 GW. Read →
Eni sells 10% stakes in seven Indonesian upstream PSCs to Pertamina and Medco
Eni / Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Eni signed binding deals to divest 10% interests in seven production-sharing contracts in Indonesia's Kutai Basin, operated by its 50/50 Searah JV with Petronas. Pertamina acquires stakes in East Sepinggan, North Ganal and Rapak PSCs including Merakes gas fields and North Hub developments; Medco takes interests in West Ganal, East Ganal, Ganal and Muara Bakau including Jangkrik and South Hub projects plus Geliga discovery. Deals are subject to regulatory approvals. Read →
Nordex Q3 orders jump 30% to 2.81 GW on Turkey, US demand
Danny Callaghan · Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Nordex reported 2,810 MW of project orders in Q3 2026, up 29.5% from 2,170 MW a year earlier, with nine-month intake at 7,733 MW. Türkiye contributed over 900 MW and the US exceeded 1.3 GW year-to-date, while average selling price held near €0.90 to 0.93 million per MW. CEO José Luis Blanco highlighted growing international diversification. Read →
Gran Tierra shareholders approve $1.33B Colombia/Ecuador sale to Maurel & Prom
Gran Tierra Energy / GlobeNewswire · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
Gran Tierra Energy stockholders voted 99.8% in favor of selling its Colombian and Ecuadorian businesses to Maurel & Prom for $1.33 billion enterprise value, including debt assumption. The company expects $315 million net cash proceeds, with closing targeted for Dec. 31, 2026, subject to regulatory approvals, leaving it debt-free to focus on Canada and Azerbaijan. Read →
Shell buys 30% non-operated stake in Equinor's Bay du Nord project
Reuters · Fri, Oct 9, 2026
Equinor and Shell signed an agreement for Shell to acquire a 30% non-operating interest in the Bay du Nord deepwater project offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. Equinor retains 70% and operatorship; the C$14 billion project targets FID in early 2027 and first oil in 2031, with initial phase resources exceeding 400 million barrels. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump's energy ceasefire claim and Russia diesel supply deal ease oil and wheat prices amid Black Sea hopes.
Diesel and oil prices drop on Trump Ukraine-Russia energy ceasefire claim.
William Sandlund · Financial Times · Mon, Oct 12, 4:00 AM ET
European diesel prices fell 3% and Brent crude slipped after Trump posted that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire following his diesel supply deal with Moscow. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said he supports it but awaits details, while Russia has not confirmed. Analysts noted limited lasting supply relief expected. Read →
US lifts Russia diesel sanctions via temporary license through April 2027.
Seoul Economic Daily · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Following Trump's call with Putin, the US Treasury issued a temporary general license allowing Russian diesel sales and imports through April 7, 2027. Russia agreed to supply over 300,000 tons immediately plus more later, totaling up to 4.8 million tons. Volumes cover roughly 1.5 days of US demand; bipartisan senators urged reconsideration. Read →
China books US wheat cargoes, sorghum shipment after Trump-Xi talks.
Naveen Thukral and Ella Cao · MillingandMillers.com · Mon, Oct 12, 2026
Chinese buyers booked two US wheat cargoes (120,000 metric tons for December) and a sorghum shipment, the first wheat buys since last October. Beijing suspended some retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods post-summit, though soybeans remain at 13% duty. Traders await larger soybean volumes promised by the White House. Read →
Oil slips as Trump announces Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and diesel deal.
Reuters · Mon, Oct 12, 2:30 AM ET
Brent fell to around $103.18 and WTI to $90.31 per barrel on expectations of more Russian diesel supplies after Trump's ceasefire announcement and prior deal releasing over 300,000 tons immediately. ICE gasoil dropped 3%. Houthi attacks and Middle East tensions kept prices supported above $100 despite the moves. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Truce collapses, Brent jumps over $105
X / multiple traders · Sun, Oct 11
Traders on X note the rapid breakdown of a reported Russia-Ukraine energy truce announced over the weekend, with Brent crude surging above $105 per barrel in response. Discussions highlight how quickly geopolitical de-escalation hopes faded, reigniting supply concerns in energy markets. Read →
Iran warns on Hormuz cables and AI sites
X / multiple traders · Sun, Oct 11
Posts quote Iran's SNSC chief threatening destruction of undersea cables, data centers, and AI facilities in the Strait of Hormuz region if conflict resumes, valuing the assets at over $2 trillion. #OOTT traders flag this as a major escalation risk that could disrupt global communications and energy flows. Read →
Drone attack hits tanker off Oman
X / multiple traders · Sun, Oct 11
Energy accounts report a new drone incident targeting a tanker near Sohar, Oman, classified as an attack by UKMTO and marking incident #165. Traders link repeated shipping disruptions in the region to rising war-risk premiums and potential supply chain strains for crude and products. Read →
Traders warn of looming global oil shortage
X / multiple traders · Sun, Oct 11
#OOTT voices argue a massive global oil shortage is underway, with one post claiming oil could reach $200 a barrel within 12 months amid underpriced escalation risks around Iran and Hormuz. Sentiment reflects retail and trader positioning for sustained tightness. Read →
Oil could go much higher on Hormuz risks
X / multiple traders · Sun, Oct 11
A trader shares a thesis that markets are underpricing escalation risks around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to major supply disruptions and much higher oil prices. The post ties this to broader #OOTT discussions on geopolitical premiums. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
JPMorgan gas analyst on LNG flows post-Hormuz
Otar Dgebuadze on JPMorgan At Any Rate podcast · Fri, Oct 9
LNG tanker crossings busiest week since March, Qatar utilization highest since war began. Watch/Listen →
JPMorgan on tight diesel amid oil recovery
Natasha Kaneva on JPMorgan At Any Rate podcast · Fri, Oct 2
Crude and refined products prices remain high, diesel markets especially tight despite Middle East flows resuming. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
14%
-4pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
78%
+6pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
16%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
17%
+1pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
6%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
18%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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