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Wednesday, September 30, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Wed, Sep 30, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent crude $103.09, up $1 (+1%) WTI crude $90.22. Talk of a US diesel export ban has already widened the WTI discount to Brent (refiners expected to process less crude if they cannot export diesel) and moved diesel futures higher this morning.
Separately, Reuters reported late last night (Tuesday) that Iran received a formal US response to its proposal. Main remaining gap is sequence: who acts first. Iran wants US concessions before it fully reopens Hormuz; Washington has indicated it wants more concrete Iranian steps (especially on nuclear) before granting major relief.
JKM Asian LNG down $0.65 (-2.5%) on easing European demand and narrowing JKM-TTF arbitrage spread.
Platinum up $27 (+1.6%) on falling oil prices easing inflation and rate-hike concerns.
Coffee up $4.3 (+1.5%) on weather risks threatening 2027 Brazil supply.
Palladium up $14 (+1.2%) on rebound alongside platinum as oil eases macro pressure.
Nickel down $173 (-1.1%) on ample LME stocks and rising Philippine ore shipments to Indonesia.
Separately, Reuters reported late last night (Tuesday) that Iran received a formal US response to its proposal. Main remaining gap is sequence: who acts first. Iran wants US concessions before it fully reopens Hormuz; Washington has indicated it wants more concrete Iranian steps (especially on nuclear) before granting major relief.
JKM Asian LNG down $0.65 (-2.5%) on easing European demand and narrowing JKM-TTF arbitrage spread.
Platinum up $27 (+1.6%) on falling oil prices easing inflation and rate-hike concerns.
Coffee up $4.3 (+1.5%) on weather risks threatening 2027 Brazil supply.
Palladium up $14 (+1.2%) on rebound alongside platinum as oil eases macro pressure.
Nickel down $173 (-1.1%) on ample LME stocks and rising Philippine ore shipments to Indonesia.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
White House weighs diesel export ban amid fuel price crisis
Myles McCormick, Jamie Smyth, David Sheppard · Financial Times · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
Donald Trump held crisis talks with advisers over whether to impose a diesel export ban or other steps to contain a fuel crisis threatening Republican midterm prospects. Aides presented options including curbs on international diesel sales, with officials briefing allies including the UK on possible supply disruptions; no decision has been taken as oil bosses lobby to preserve exports while diesel hits $6.53 a gallon. Read →
Mideast oil exports hit highest since Iran war started
Financial Times · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Shuttle services through the Strait of Hormuz have lifted Middle Eastern oil shipments to more than 80% of the prewar daily average. The rebound in exports follows Saudi Arabia's efforts to restore flows via alternative routes amid the ongoing conflict. Read →
Gold steadies as lower oil offsets higher yields
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
Gold steadied around $4,180 an ounce after a 1.6% gain the prior day as traders weighed a drop in oil prices easing energy-led inflation concerns against elevated Treasury yields. Oil held lower on signs Middle East supply has risen near pre-war levels via Saudi pipeline boosts, though Brent remains up 70% this year. Read →
China's imports show metals boom, oil decline
Gavin Maguire · Reuters · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
China's Jan-Aug commodity imports reveal surging metals demand, bauxite, nickel, chrome, lithium and manganese up 10%+ YTD, with total base/minor metals at a record 250M tons, while crude oil and refined product imports fell 17 to 18%. Iron ore hit a record 870M tons, underscoring manufacturing and electrification priorities alongside persistent coal use. Read →
Chile unions ready strike at Centinela copper mine
Reuters · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Two main unions at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela copper mine in Chile rejected the company's contract offer and are prepared to strike after mandatory government mediation, potentially starting Oct 13. The mine produced 240,400 tons of copper in 2025; strike risk supports prices amid constrained global output. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 3US Natural Gas 3Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 1Global Nat Gas & LNG 1Power 1Coal 2Agriculture 4Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 1Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 2Shipping & Freight 3Environment 2Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 1Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Saudi pipeline restart and Middle East export rebound drive oil prices lower, with Brent settling at $102.59/bbl.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 90.39 | +1.1% +1.01 |
+57.4% | +46.3% | +20.5% |
| Brent | 97.37 | +1.3% +1.21 |
+60.0% | +49.0% | +24.0% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.182 | +1.6% +0.050 |
+86.6% | +68.7% | +41.2% |
| Heating Oil | 4.666 | +3.5% +0.156 |
+120% | +103% | +99.3% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
43.26 | +2.6% +1.09 |
+205% +29.06 |
+148% +25.83 |
+121% +23.64 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
105.58 | +5.5% +5.54 |
+234% +73.94 |
+203% +70.68 |
+353% +82.26 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
64.04 | +4.2% +2.57 |
+220% +44.02 |
+175% +40.78 |
+207% +43.18 |
OPEC+ expected to hold October quotas unchanged
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Core OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to maintain existing crude production quotas for October at their weekend video conference, ratifying the prior roadmap with no further adjustments. The group has nominally completed the reversal of 2023 cuts and will focus on a broader 2027 production capacity review and baselines ahead of the November ministerial meeting. The decision comes amid Middle East supply disruptions that have limited OPEC+'s market influence. Read →
Trump denies Iran sanctions relief offer as Qatar mediates
CNBC / Reuters · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
President Trump posted on Truth Social that reports of offering Iran sanctions relief or releasing frozen funds for nuclear steps were untrue, stating he offered 'NOTHING.' Qatar continues mediating indirect talks, with Iran's foreign minister receiving US feedback on a seven-day Hormuz reopening plan. Oil prices edged higher early Wednesday on the news, with Brent near $103/bbl. Read →
US commercial crude stocks rise 3.0M barrels to 426.4M
EIA · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
US commercial crude inventories (ex-SPR) rose 3.0 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18, above analyst expectations for a draw and 2% above the five-year average. Refinery utilization fell to 94% with crude inputs down, while SPR stocks declined further to 284.6 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. The next weekly report is due Sept. 30. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub November futures slip to $3.05 as Mountaineer XPress outage ends and Appalachian supply returns.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.025 | +0.5% +0.014 |
-17.9% | -13.0% | -48.4% |
Henry Hub at $3.05 slips as pipeline outage ends.
Itai Smidt · TradingNEWS · Tue, Sep 29, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
November Henry Hub futures traded at $3.05/MMBtu, down 1.82% and marking a third straight decline after the Mountaineer XPress force majeure was lifted Sunday following a three-day outage. Storage stood at 3,351 Bcf after a 53 Bcf injection, 2.9% above the five-year average; LNG feedgas averaged 18.0 bcfd in September versus 17.3 bcfd in August despite Cove Point maintenance. Production near 112.5 bcfd but declining in West Virginia and Texas as the storage surplus narrows. Read →
US natgas prices fall to $3.10 as pipeline fix nears.
Judith Sib-at · Trading Economics · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
US natural gas prices fell for a second session to $3.10/MMBtu on Monday awaiting updates on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline outage. TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission reported crews working to resolve the mechanical issue that disrupted 1.4 to 1.8 bcfd; LNG feedgas averaged 17.9 bcfd in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August. Hot weather is drawing down the storage surplus built from strong production and mild spring conditions while daily output declines in West Virginia and Texas. Read →
US natgas futures slide 2% on lower demand outlook.
Reuters · Tue, Sep 30, 2026
US natural gas futures slid 2% on Tuesday to $3.043/MMBtu for November delivery on forecasts for less demand this week and expectations that output will rise after the Mountaineer XPress pipeline returned to service. LSEG data showed Lower 48 output easing to 112.2 bcfd monthly average but averaging only 109.4 bcfd over the past week; meteorologists forecast near-normal temperatures through October 14, limiting heating and cooling demand. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane holds at 85.5¢/gal as exports and inventory draws tighten the complex.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.256 | -0.1% -0.000 |
+8.0% | -3.3% | -40.9% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
0.855 | +0.0% +0.000 |
+38.6% | +22.4% | -40.7% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.277 | +0.2% +0.003 |
+71.3% | +41.9% | -18.3% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.393 | -0.1% -0.001 |
+79.2% | +46.8% | -10.9% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.048 | -0.1% -0.001 |
+74.7% | +59.5% | +14.0% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 6 | unch | +6 | +2 | +1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 58 | unch | +30 | +20 | -33 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -644 | +1 | -338 | -301 | -264 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -397 | +1 | -229 | -212 | -433 |
| C5 as % WTI | 95 | -1 | +9 | +8 | -5 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
VLGC rates climb on tight supply
Priya Anika Rajan · World Ports Organization · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
VLGC freight ex-US hit fresh highs with fixtures above prior levels amid tight vessel availability and strong arbitrage economics. BLPG3 Houston-Chiba rose $32.71 to $320.71/mt while Houston-Flushing gained $15.50 week-on-week. Limited prompt October vessels and continued cargo demand from Asia underpin elevated rates supporting US LPG export economics. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls 5 to 6% to €69/MWh as JKM slips to $25.43/MMBtu on easing geopolitics and mild weather; EU storage at 71% limits buying.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
69.10 | -1.0% -0.71 |
+142% | +117% | -30.3% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
23.01 | -1.0% -0.23 |
+142% | +117% | -30.3% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
25.43 | -2.5% -0.65 |
+165% | +130% | -18.2% |
EU gas storage · gas day Mon, Sep 28
EU gas storage is 71.3% full, 807 TWh in store, 15.6 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.2 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 57.7%.
EU full 71.3% +0.16 pts d/d | Year ago 82.5% | 5-yr avg 86.9% same date |
Germany 57.7% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
JKM at $25.04, TTF near $23.70 as spreads narrow
LNG Price Index · Sun, Sep 28, 2026
Front-month JKM eased 1.34% to $25.04/MMBtu and TTF fell 1.41% to $23.70/MMBtu equivalent. The JKM-TTF spread held near +$1.34/MMBtu, keeping the Pacific diversion window marginally open amid stable Atlantic supply. These moves reflect softening spot demand signals after prior geopolitical spikes. Read →
Power
What's moving · FERC accepts but suspends PJM’s data-center capacity procurement plan until Feb. 28 amid cost-allocation fights.
FERC accepts but suspends PJM data-center capacity plan to Feb. 28.
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 30, 2026
US energy regulators accepted PJM Interconnection’s filing to procure new capacity for a 6.8 GW shortfall driven by data-center demand but suspended it until Feb. 28, ordering a paper hearing on cost allocation, collateral, and exit-rule issues. The move delays a one-time auction meant to accelerate supply for AI-driven load growth in the nation’s largest grid. PJM had proposed the backstop procurement to address shortfalls after recent capacity auctions cleared at price caps while failing reliability targets. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Indonesia's export slump and India power-plant stock draw tighten thermal coal supply amid gas-to-coal switching.
Glencore-Yancoal mine extension approved to 2045
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
New South Wales planning commission approved the Hunter Valley Operations Continuation Project after a six-year review, extending Glencore and Yancoal's joint thermal and coking coal mines to 2045. The project allows extraction of about 429 million tonnes and sustains up to 1,500 jobs pending federal approval. Longer-term Australian export supply adds a modest offset to near-term seaborne tightness. Read →
India coal stocks plunge 24% as power demand rises
Indian Express · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Coal stocks at Indian thermal power plants fell to 19.2 million tonnes by Sep 27, 24% below early-September levels and 64% short of required buffers, with 72 of 168 plants at critical stock. Weak hydro output and record September power demand near 269 GW forced greater coal burn. The government invoked Section 11 to mandate full operation of captive plants over 50 MW from Oct 1, boosting near-term thermal coal offtake. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Harvest delays and renewed China export interest lift soybeans while grains eye Wednesday USDA stocks report.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 525 | +0.5% +3 |
+19.1% | +25.9% | -2.3% |
| Wheat | 696 | +0.4% +3 |
+37.2% | +36.6% | -4.1% |
| Soybeans | 1,301 | +0.3% +3 |
+26.2% | +28.4% | +3.6% |
| Sugar | 18.78 | -0.3% -0.06 |
+25.1% | +16.4% | -5.3% |
| Coffee | 293.7 | +1.5% +4.3 |
-15.8% | -23.5% | +51.4% |
| Cocoa | 5,398 | -0.2% -10 |
-11.0% | -19.1% | +104% |
| Cotton | 79.09 | +0.3% +0.23 |
+23.4% | +25.6% | -26.4% |
Soybeans rise on China interest and harvest delays
Michelle Rook · AgWeb · Tue, Sep 29, 4:40 PM ET
Market sources reported renewed Chinese export interest for U.S. soybeans out of the Pacific Northwest and Gulf. Harvest delays in key Midwest areas supported early Tuesday gains in soybeans while corn and wheat traded mixed ahead of the USDA quarterly stocks report due Wednesday. Read →
Soybeans rebound modestly after China tariff news
Bruce Blythe · Farm Progress · Mon, Sep 29
November soybeans rose 4.25 cents to $12.9250 overnight after plunging 30.75 cents Monday on China maintaining its 10% tariff on U.S. beans. U.S. corn harvest reached 18% as of Sunday, in line with the five-year average, though rains slowed progress in Iowa and other states. Read →
Grains two-sided pre-USDA stocks report
Cooperative Farmers Elevator · Tue, Sep 29
Overnight trade was two-sided to lower with attention shifting to Wednesday’s USDA quarterly stocks and small grains report. Analysts expect Sep 1 corn stocks near 1.918 billion bushels, soybeans 324 million bushels and wheat 1.889 billion bushels; harvest delays noted especially in Iowa. Read →
China soybean demand weakens post-tariff snub
Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral · Reuters · Wed, Sep 30, 3:19 AM ET
China’s soybean buying is expected to decline due to weak animal feed demand and poor crush margins, limiting room for additional U.S. cargoes after soybeans were excluded from tariff relief. State buyers have already purchased over 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, nearing half the White House target. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Chile mine strike risk and China factory rebound lift copper while lithium slumps 25% on demand fears.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,610 | +0.4% +52 |
+17.7% | +37.2% | +62.0% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,568 | +0.3% +48 |
+14.7% | +47.2% | +52.7% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,160 | -0.4% -13 |
+6.2% | +23.2% | +8.9% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,488 | -0.2% -8 |
+16.1% | +26.8% | +14.3% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,041 | -1.1% -173 |
-5.3% | +5.5% | -21.9% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,138 | -0.2% -4 |
-2.9% | +2.6% | +4.9% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
54,226 | +0.5% +282 |
+29.1% | +59.8% | +58.6% |
China factory PMI returns to growth at 50.1
Kevin Yao and Ellen Zhang · Reuters · Wed, Sep 30, 1:40 AM ET
China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, returning to expansion territory for the first time since June. A private survey showed a five-month high of 52.1. The rebound in factory activity, supported by AI-related demand, provides a positive signal for industrial metals consumption ahead of China’s National Day holiday. Read →
Centinela unions ready to strike Oct 13
Reuters · Mining Weekly · Wed, Sep 30
The two main unions at Antofagasta Minerals’ Centinela copper mine in Chile, representing 708 members, rejected the company’s contract offer and entered mandatory government mediation. Union leaders said a legal strike could begin as early as Oct. 13 if talks fail. Centinela produced 240,400 tonnes of copper in 2025, adding to broader supply concerns from operational issues and weather. Read →
Lithium carbonate futures plunge 25% in China
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 30
Chinese lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou exchange fell 25% in September to below 120,000 yuan per tonne. Concerns over slowing EV battery and energy storage demand, plus a new consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries and halted new projects, weighed on prices. The drop reverses earlier optimism from mine supply constraints and export growth. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel output cuts and port iron ore inventory builds drive DCE iron ore futures to five-week lows near 700 yuan/t.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
92.7 | +0.4% +0.4 |
-7.9% | -3.1% | -13.0% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
401 | -0.1% -1 |
+1.8% | +3.5% | -44.4% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
429 | -0.4% -2 |
+4.1% | +4.4% | -43.3% |
Restocking ends, iron ore futures stay soft
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Sun, Sep 28, 2026
The most-traded DCE I2701 iron ore contract settled at 705 yuan/mt, down 0.91% from the prior session, with spot prices at Qingdao port falling 6 to 10 yuan/mt week-on-week amid thin trading. Arrivals at Chinese ports reached 29.46 million mt for the week while global shipments were steady; mill losses persist and most producers hold output steady, with some shifting maintenance after the holiday due to tight coke supply. Restocking demand has largely run its course, leaving prices without near-term support. Read →
China HRC export prices hold steady near $498/t FOB
Mysteel · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
China’s carbon steel hot-rolled coil export prices remained broadly stable during the week of September 20 to 24, with Mysteel assessing SS400 3mm commercial-grade HRC at Tianjin port at $498/t FOB, down just $1/t on the week. Export deals stayed limited as mills focused on domestic supply ahead of the National Day holiday. August HRC export volumes rose 12.6% year-on-year to 1.52 million tonnes, the first annual increase this year per customs data. Read →
China iron ore port inventories rise to 172 mt
Mysteel · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
Inventories of imported iron ore at China’s 47 major ports increased for the second straight week to 172.17 million tonnes by September 24, up 805,700 tonnes or 0.5% week-on-week. Steel mill imported ore stocks also built, reaching a seven-month high as mills stockpiled ahead of the holiday while daily consumption eased. The build reflects ample global supply and restrained mill buying amid ongoing losses. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Elevated US Treasury yields and rate-hike odds drive gold lower despite physical buying support near lows.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,216 | +0.9% +36 |
-2.9% | +8.2% | +140% |
| Silver | 61.18 | +0.0% +0.02 |
-12.8% | +29.4% | +178% |
| Platinum | 1,728 | +1.6% +27 |
-15.1% | +10.1% | +79.9% |
| Palladium | 1,228 | +1.2% +14 |
-24.6% | -1.8% | -35.5% |
Gold heads for monthly loss ahead of PCE data
Ashitha Shivaprasad · Reuters · Wed, Sep 30, 6:54 AM ET
Spot gold held near $4,180/oz on Wednesday, down about 6% for September. Traders priced in higher Fed rates after oil-driven inflation concerns lifted yields, with PCE data due later. Silver, platinum and palladium also face monthly losses as the dollar strengthens. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Trump-Xi summit extends China rare earth export controls suspension to Jan 10, 2027, buying time amid persistent US supply dependence.
Trump-Xi summit extends rare earth controls suspension to Jan 2027
Ipek Kara · Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
The one-year suspension of China’s rare earth export controls, originally set to expire November 10, 2026, has been extended until January 10, 2027 following the Trump-Xi Washington summit. China controls about 90% of global rare earth processing and magnet fabrication capacity, including 88% of light and 97% of heavy rare earth oxide separation. No joint settlement on critical minerals emerged; the extension provides temporary relief but leaves US defense and electronics manufacturers exposed to future licensing risks ahead of 2027 deadlines. Read →
Rinehart rare earth holdings drop $478M on share falls
The Northern Miner · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
Falling shares of MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths reduced the value of Gina Rinehart’s holdings by an estimated A$680 million ($478 million). The drop reflects broader market reaction post-summit amid ongoing uncertainty over Chinese export policies and non-Chinese producer performance. Both companies remain key players in Western efforts to build alternative rare earth supply chains outside China. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI drops 2.8% to 3,178 on capesize weakness as Hormuz diplomacy advances via Qatar mediators.
Iran gets US feedback on Hormuz seven-day plan via Qatar.
Reuters · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi received US feedback via Qatari mediators in Doha on a seven-day trust-building plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Sequencing of steps remains the main sticking point rather than the components themselves. The development marks the latest diplomatic effort to ease disruptions at the key chokepoint affecting tanker and LNG flows. Read →
BDI rises 2.8% to 2,066 on capesize rebound.
Zhang Weili · World Ports Organization · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index snapped a three-day losing streak, climbing about 2.8% to 2,066 points. The capesize index rebounded 7.8% to 2,835 points while panamax and supramax indices declined. The move reflects mixed conditions in dry-bulk markets tracking iron ore, coal and grain cargoes. Read →
Port delays sideline 3m TEU or 8.5% of global fleet.
Monica Germany · World Ports Organization · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Vessel delays from typhoons in Asia now tie up 3 million TEU of containership capacity, up 75% since mid-August and equating to 8.5% of the global fleet. Schedule reliability fell to 49.9% with average delays reaching 6.8 days. Sea-Intelligence estimates recovery could take seven to 10 months, pressuring container freight rates. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs rebound on US buying ahead of Sep 30 surrender deadline as RGGI prices hold at $37.65 post-Virginia return.
EUAs rebound on US-led buying near support
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
EUAs fell early Tuesday near key support before rebounding on afternoon buying, with some traders attributing the surge to US demand. UKAs rose on UK political news. The move comes as the Sep 30 annual surrender deadline for 2025 emissions looms and free allocations reach 77% completion. Read →
Verra CCS method wins ICVCM CCP approval
Verra · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Verra’s VM0049 CCS methodology and modules for DAC, transport, storage, and BECCS received ICVCM Core Carbon Principles approval. The framework sets strict rules on renewable power sourcing for capture. The move adds a high-integrity technology-based credit type to the voluntary market. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC guidance lets futures firms invest customer funds in tokenized assets and use blockchain records.
Tether mints nearly $495M in XAUT tokenized gold
Enna Lee · TokenPost · Tue, Sep 29, 8:11 AM ET
Tether minted approximately 119,670 XAUT tokens valued at $494.57 million on September 29, with each token backed 1:1 by physical gold in Swiss vaults under London Good Delivery standards. The issuance exceeds the prior month's mint and expands the tokenized gold supply amid growing demand for on-chain precious metals exposure. XAUT remains one of the largest tokenized commodities by market cap, representing a direct claim on allocated physical gold. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · BP names ex-JPMorgan banker Ben Monaghan new M&A chief from early 2027 amid portfolio streamlining.
BP hires PJT Partners' Ben Monaghan as senior VP for M&A and business developmen
Reuters · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
BP appointed Ben Monaghan, former Genel CFO and PJT Partners partner with 20 years at JPMorgan leading EMEA energy banking, as senior vice president for mergers and acquisitions and business development effective early 2027. The move follows Sam Skerry's August shift to supply, trading and shipping and aligns with CEO Meg O'Neill's focus on investment discipline, profitability and divestments to streamline the portfolio. Read →
GeoPark plans $7B investment to raise Venezuela's Bare oilfield output to 90,000
Reuters · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
GeoPark CEO Felipe Bayon said the Colombian producer will invest $7 billion in Venezuela's Bare oilfield in the Orinoco Belt under a 25-year production-sharing agreement, targeting 90,000 barrels per day by 2038 from the current 11,000 bpd. The plan includes reactivating up to 1,100 wells and drilling new horizontal wells in four phases, funded partly by $700 million in liquidity and committed financing. Read →
Shell and partners approve LNG Canada Phase 2 to double capacity to 28 mtpa.
Reuters · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
Shell and joint-venture partners Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and KOGAS gave final investment decision on LNG Canada Phase 2 in Kitimat, British Columbia, adding two liquefaction trains to double capacity from 14 mtpa to 28 mtpa at an estimated C$33 billion cost. Shell, with a 40% stake, expects nearly 6 mtpa of additional LNG with commercial operations targeted for the early 2030s. Read →
BP considers selling its Brazilian biofuels business as part of portfolio review
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
BP is evaluating options including a potential sale of its Brazilian biofuels business, which it took full control of in 2024 via a $1.4 billion acquisition of the remaining 50% stake from a Bunge joint venture. The unit is no longer viewed as core under CEO Meg O'Neill's strategy to focus capital on higher-return oil, gas and other operations amid broader divestment efforts. Read →
MET Group buys majority stake in Greek renewables aggregator Zephiros Energy Tra
MET Group · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
MET Sales and Trading, the trading and wholesale arm of Swiss energy company MET Group, acquired a majority stake in Zephiros Energy Trading S.A., a licensed renewables aggregator in Greece. The deal expands MET's presence in Greece's fast-growing renewables and battery storage segments, with Georgios Oikonomou appointed CEO of the acquired entity. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US-China tariff cuts on $60B goods and diesel export ban talks drive commodity policy now.
US imposes import ban on Canadian alcohol, dairy, motorcycles.
Ana Swanson · New York Times · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
The Trump administration implemented import bans effective September 29 on select Canadian products including alcoholic beverages, whey and other dairy items, molasses, non-alcoholic beer and motorcycles worth roughly $967 million. The bans escalate the US-Canada trade dispute triggered by 50% Section 338 tariffs and Canadian retaliation, though they cover only a small fraction of bilateral trade. Read →
US enacts Russia-Iran sanctions bill with up to 100% tariffs on energy buyers.
Paul, Weiss · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
President Trump signed the bipartisan Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 18, requiring within 30 days up to 500% tariffs on Russian-origin goods and up to 100% tariffs on goods from the top five importers of Russian crude oil or natural gas plus top sanctions-evasion facilitators. The law also expands sanctions, prohibits new US energy exports and investments in Russia, and extends the Iran Sanctions Act to 2031. Read →
New US law targets Russian energy buyers with tariffs up to 100%.
Washington Trade & Tariff Letter · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, signed September 18, directs the president to impose tariffs up to 100% on imports from the five largest buyers of Russian crude or natural gas and top evasion facilitators, in addition to up to 500% duties on Russian goods. It codifies and expands Russia sanctions while extending Iran sanctions through 2031, with determinations due by mid-October. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Iran-US talks via Qatar yield no progress on blockade or nukes
X / multiple traders · Tue, Sep 29
Axios reports Qatari-mediated US-Iran talks made little progress with both sides refusing compromise; fears of renewed fighting rise as Qatar links lifting naval blockade to nuclear concessions. Traders on X immediately call 'long oil' citing the impasse and September 30 deadline pressures. The stalled diplomacy keeps geopolitical risk premium in crude alive amid WTI dips. Read →
WTI falls 3.5% to $89.38 shrugging Iran threats
X / multiple traders · Tue, Sep 29
Energy markets largely ignored fresh Iran escalation headlines, sending WTI down 3.48% to $89.38 while diesel rose 3% on tightening distillate supplies. #OOTT traders note the disconnect between bullish news and price action, with some questioning positioning ahead of potential renewed combat odds. Diesel strength highlights specific product-market tightness despite broader crude weakness. Read →
Traders warn against riding oil trend at $89 dip
X / multiple traders · Tue, Sep 29
Axios bullish crude headlines hit as WTI slipped below the $89 level it has bounced from for weeks, prompting #OOTT discussion on whether Trump positioning has shifted. Some traders say they have seen others get cooked riding the trend now and advise caution. The move highlights volatility around diplomatic and geopolitical signals. Read →
Kpler oil data reinforces likely no-deal Iran outcome
X / multiple traders · Tue, Sep 29
Traders note today's Kpler data drop on oil is viewed as a non-event that likely reinforces the most probable course: no deal as the September 30 deadline nears. Discussion in #OOTT circles ties this to ongoing blockade and diplomatic stalemate. The data is seen as supporting a tighter physical market outlook despite headline noise. Read →
Diesel export ban talks may spark short energy dip
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 28
Talks around a potential US diesel export ban are flagged as likely to trigger a brief selloff in energy futures over the next 24 to 48 hours. Traders expect a quick rebound as the market reassesses policy scope and actual impact. The topic surfaces amid broader distillate tightness and geopolitical energy concerns. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
TD's Melek sees gold averaging $5,000 next quarter
Bart Melek (TD Securities) on MoneyTalk · Mon, Sep 28
Gold is expected to average around $5,000 next quarter amid volatility. Watch/Listen →
Oil drives yields higher in latest surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance (Sep 28 episode) · Mon, Sep 28
Oil prices are dictating moves across assets amid geopolitical tensions. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
20%
-3pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
65%
+1pp w/w
Saudi East-West oil pipeline restarts by October 15
41%
-4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by October 31
21%
-20pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
42%
-12pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
9%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
18%
-3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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