Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 49 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Thu, Oct 1, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent $100.29, up $2.26 (+2.3%) and WTI $92.30, up $1.88 (+2.1%) on stalled Iran talks.
Mid east oil liquid flows have recovered to pre war levels:
*1. Goldman now shows mid east 23.3 mil b/d exports for the week ending September 28: GS includes their own proprietary dark ships add on which is around 5mil of the 23. This dark 5/day is the big difference to other estimates. So net GS is back at the 2025 average, crude at 108%, diesel, gasoline and jet about half.
*2. JPMorgan’s crude-plus-products 20.5 mil b/d is a 10-day average, 89% of 2025.
*3. Kpler’s September crude of 16.5 million b/d is just under 80% of pre-war with Iran in, and about 100% ex-Iran; Hormuz refined products are near 0.7 million b/d, about 20% of the pre-war 3.6.
*4.Vortexa’s weekly strait read is lowest as it is Hormuz only (not Red Sea) and does not include GS-style dark fleet estimates to get to crude about 80% of pre-war, all liquid oil (crude plus refined products) 70%. GS and JPM say they calculate their numbers independently of others models.
N-Butane up $0.082 (+6.4%) on US gasoline blending demand and Asia tightening amid Mideast LPG disruptions.
Propane up $0.041 (+4.8%) on strong US exports and seasonal heating demand lifting Mont Belvieu prices.
Cocoa down $189 (-3.5%) on Ivory Coast seasonal surplus and strong port arrivals pressuring nearby futures.
Ethane up $0.007 (+2.6%) on robust US cracker demand and global feedstock cost support from oil-linked alternatives.
US Nat Gas down $0.072 (-2.4%) on mild weather forecasts limiting heating and cooling demand through mid-October.
Mid east oil liquid flows have recovered to pre war levels:
*1. Goldman now shows mid east 23.3 mil b/d exports for the week ending September 28: GS includes their own proprietary dark ships add on which is around 5mil of the 23. This dark 5/day is the big difference to other estimates. So net GS is back at the 2025 average, crude at 108%, diesel, gasoline and jet about half.
*2. JPMorgan’s crude-plus-products 20.5 mil b/d is a 10-day average, 89% of 2025.
*3. Kpler’s September crude of 16.5 million b/d is just under 80% of pre-war with Iran in, and about 100% ex-Iran; Hormuz refined products are near 0.7 million b/d, about 20% of the pre-war 3.6.
*4.Vortexa’s weekly strait read is lowest as it is Hormuz only (not Red Sea) and does not include GS-style dark fleet estimates to get to crude about 80% of pre-war, all liquid oil (crude plus refined products) 70%. GS and JPM say they calculate their numbers independently of others models.
N-Butane up $0.082 (+6.4%) on US gasoline blending demand and Asia tightening amid Mideast LPG disruptions.
Propane up $0.041 (+4.8%) on strong US exports and seasonal heating demand lifting Mont Belvieu prices.
Cocoa down $189 (-3.5%) on Ivory Coast seasonal surplus and strong port arrivals pressuring nearby futures.
Ethane up $0.007 (+2.6%) on robust US cracker demand and global feedstock cost support from oil-linked alternatives.
US Nat Gas down $0.072 (-2.4%) on mild weather forecasts limiting heating and cooling demand through mid-October.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Russia extends diesel export ban to end-October
Reuters · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
Moscow extended its ban on diesel exports by fuel producers through October to stabilize domestic supplies amid Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. The move adds to global diesel shortages already exacerbated by Middle East and Ukraine conflicts. Read →
Panama panel backs Cobre Panama copper mine restart
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
A Panamanian government commission recommended negotiating a temporary restart of First Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama mine to fund an orderly, self-financed closure over years. Shares of First Quantum tumbled as much as 37% on the news; copper prices briefly spiked. Read →
Mideast oil exports hit highest since Iran war
Financial Times · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
Shuttle services through the Strait of Hormuz lifted Middle East crude shipments to more than 80% of prewar daily averages. The rebound eases some supply pressure even as overall flows remain below pre-conflict levels. Read →
Oil steadies near $100 on Mideast supply recovery
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
Brent futures settled above $98 and WTI near $90 as analysts said Hormuz flows approached prewar levels. Traders weighed whether the recovery in Middle East crude can be sustained amid ongoing Iran uncertainty. Read →
Russia extends diesel ban amid global squeeze
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
Moscow prolonged its diesel export ban through October, tightening supplies further as winter demand rises and the US weighs its own export curbs. The extension follows repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Natural Gas 4Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 3Coal 3Agriculture 4Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 2Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 4Regulation & Government 2Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 3Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Saudi pipeline restart and Mideast exports near pre-war levels drive oil lower after sharp weekly swings.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 92.30 | +2.1% +1.88 |
+60.7% | +52.6% | +21.6% |
| Brent | 100.29 | +2.3% +2.26 |
+64.8% | +56.4% | +26.5% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.325 | +2.0% +0.065 |
+82.3% | +67.9% | +38.2% |
| Heating Oil | 4.651 | -0.8% -0.037 |
+119% | +107% | +95.2% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
47.36 | +1.8% +0.84 |
+147% +28.16 |
+109% +24.68 |
+87.9% +22.15 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
103.06 | -3.2% -3.42 |
+226% +71.41 |
+205% +69.31 |
+326% +78.87 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
65.93 | -0.9% -0.58 |
+182% +42.58 |
+150% +39.56 |
+165% +41.06 |
Oil rises $1 on stalled US-Iran talks, tight fuels
Laila Kearney · Reuters · Wed, Sep 30, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Brent November settled up 91 cents at $103.50/bbl and December up $1.87 at $98.03; WTI rose $1.04 to $90.42. US gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million and distillates dropped 2.3 million to 105.2 million per EIA data. Stalled talks and tight US fuel markets offset some supply recovery signals. Read →
JPMorgan, Goldman: Mideast flows near pre-war
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
JPMorgan estimated Mideast crude exports at 17.5 million b/d or 98% of pre-war levels; Goldman put Gulf exports at 23.3 million b/d including dark shipments, matching 2025 averages. The rebound came via Saudi East-West pipeline restart and Hormuz shuttle operations despite ongoing war risks. Read →
Mideast exports rebound as Hormuz pressure eases
Georgi Kantchev and Summer Said · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
US Navy and Gulf producers improved evasion of Iranian attacks, allowing more tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iraq reached nearly 13 million b/d or 80% of pre-war levels per Kpler, reducing Iran's leverage in talks. Read →
Oil dips on Gulf export recovery, diplomacy focus
Reuters · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Brent fell 1.1% to $96.92/bbl and WTI 1.4% to $89.18/bbl in early trade. US crude inventories rose 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million versus expected draw; Saudi Yanbu loadings resumed while OPEC+ is expected to hold November targets steady. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · LNG feedgas surges to near-record levels, lifting NYMEX November futures 2% to $3.39/MMBtu.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 2.954 | -2.4% -0.072 |
-19.9% | -14.2% | -47.4% |
US natgas futures rise 2% on record LNG flows.
World Energy News · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
NYMEX November futures climbed 6.7 cents or 2% to $3.391/MMBtu amid average LNG feedgas flows rising to 16.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September. Flows to Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant hit a record 3.6 bcfd on Sunday. LSEG data showed Lower 48 output easing to 106.5 bcfd in early October while storage sits about 5% above normal. Read →
Natgas futures steady near $3 on steady demand outlook.
Reuters via Business Recorder · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
November futures fell 0.9 cents or 0.3% to $3.002/MMBtu on forecasts for steady demand through mid-October despite Mountaineer XPress returning to service. LNG feedgas averaged 17.9 bcfd in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, even with Cove Point maintenance. LSEG sees demand rising to 105.3 bcfd next week as weather turns cooler. Read →
Henry Hub closes at $2.97/MMBtu, down 1.85%.
World Oil Monitor · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Henry Hub spot and front-month futures settled around $2.96, $2.97/MMBtu on October 1, down roughly 2% on the day. The move follows mixed storage expectations and ample production near 112 bcfd in September. LNG exports remain the key demand support amid seasonal shoulder-period weakness. Read →
US natgas falls below $3 on limited demand outlook.
Trading Economics · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Prices dropped to $2.96/MMBtu on October 1, down over 2% from the prior close. Mild weather forecasts through mid-October limit power-burn upside while output stays elevated. September LNG feedgas rose to 17.9 bcfd, providing the main counterbalance to seasonal softening. Read →
Sponsored · Vortexa
The Vortexa Innovation Series: Three Cities, One Global Conversation
Vortexa's Innovation Series continues this fall in New York (Oct 6), Houston (Oct 8), and London (Oct 14). Each stop brings Vortexa's analyst team together with the traders, shippers and financiers navigating today's most volatile energy markets, for an exclusive briefing on what's moving crude, products, freight and LNG, powered by real-time data. You'll also get a first look at how AI is reshaping trading workflows, turning natural-language questions into market-ready insight. With Hormuz and the Red Sea reshaping flows in real time, these are must-attend sessions for anyone tracking waterborne energy.
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane jumps 4.8% to 89.6¢/gal as Gulf Coast stocks build and exports slow ahead of winter.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.263 | +2.6% +0.007 |
+10.9% | -5.3% | -38.1% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
0.896 | +4.8% +0.041 |
+45.2% | +30.0% | -39.8% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.358 | +6.4% +0.082 |
+82.2% | +57.9% | -15.1% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.418 | +1.8% +0.025 |
+82.4% | +55.0% | -11.4% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.039 | -0.4% -0.009 |
+74.0% | +61.1% | +10.7% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 7 | +1 | +7 | +2 | +1 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 63 | +5 | +35 | +25 | -35 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -615 | -16 | -323 | -306 | -248 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -351 | unch | -198 | -187 | -432 |
| C5 as % WTI | 93 | -2 | +7 | +5 | -9 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
EIA propane stocks · week ending Fri, Sep 25
A 1.8 mb build took US propane stocks to 109.6 mb, 17.9 mb (20%) above the five-year average and 6.2 mb above a year ago. Exports ran 1,669 kb/d (-800 kb/d w/w) against production of 2,933 kb/d.
US stocks 109.6 mb +1.8 mb w/w | Year ago 103.4 mb | 5-yr avg 91.7 mb |
Gulf Coast 70.4 mb PADD 3 | Midwest 25.6 mb PADD 2 | Exports 1,669 kb/d -800 kb/d w/w |
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · Full EIA report →
Kpler cuts Mont Belvieu propane outlook on oversupply
Nils Jenson · Kpler · Tue, Sep 30, 2026
Kpler lowered its Q2 2026 Mont Belvieu propane price outlook after US production exceeded expectations and US-China trade normalization remains unlikely before H2 2026. A new dock at Energy Transfer Nederland starting in November will add export capacity, but persistent tariffs and lack of talks cap near-term flows. The firm also trimmed its butane outlook amid strong US supply and upcoming Middle East volumes. Read →
Aramco raises Oct propane CP to $680/MT
Mizanest · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
Saudi Aramco lifted its October 2026 contract price for propane to $680 per metric ton, up $55 from September, and butane to $730/MT, up $70. The increases reflect tighter global balances and Aramco’s effort to defend market share in India and China against US supply. Higher Middle East benchmarks support netbacks for US Gulf cargoes. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF edges higher to €72/MWh on low EU storage and Norwegian supply reassurance amid Hormuz LNG cuts.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
74.06 | +2.4% +1.70 |
+163% | +135% | -20.9% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
24.52 | +2.4% +0.56 |
+163% | +135% | -20.9% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
25.74 | +1.2% +0.31 |
+168% | +133% | -17.2% |
EU gas storage · gas day Tue, Sep 29
EU gas storage is 71.5% full, 810 TWh in store, 15.6 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.0 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 57.9%.
EU full 71.5% +0.21 pts d/d | Year ago 82.6% | 5-yr avg 87.1% same date |
Germany 57.9% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Norway says gas system ready for high winter Europe demand
Reuters · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Norway's Gassco said its pipeline and processing system is fully prepared for peak winter deliveries to Europe after completing September maintenance. Norway supplies 30% of EU+UK gas needs; 2026 deliveries so far are 86.2 bcm, up 2.1 bcm YoY. The statement supports TTF as Europe enters the gas year with storage well below average. Read →
European gas prices edge up on TTF after warmer forecast reversal
Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Dutch TTF front-month rose 0.30 euros to €28.05/MWh (earlier session data showed levels near €72/MWh in Nov contract) as weather forecasts revised higher for next week but power-sector demand is seen rising 603 GWh/d with lower wind. Norwegian flows are higher post-Karsto outage end; LNG send-out to NW Europe expected to rise. Prices had fallen on prior milder outlook. Read →
Asian LNG prices hit highest since 2022 on winter demand and tensions
Priya Anika Rajan · World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Northeast Asia spot LNG prices reached $26/MMBtu for October delivery amid Middle East shipping attacks limiting Persian Gulf outflows and strong winter procurement. Bangladesh and South Korea led recent spot buying; Kogas took 14 to 20 cargoes for Nov-Jan. JKM remains supported by TTF strength and limited discretionary Chinese buying, tightening the arb with Europe. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM suspends data-center backstop auction after FERC demands cost-allocation fixes amid 6.8 GW shortfall.
PJM suspends data-center backstop auction after FERC order
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
PJM Interconnection suspended its planned one-time reliability backstop procurement auction hours after FERC partially approved but suspended the filing until Feb. 28 and ordered revisions on cost allocation, collateral, and exit rules. The auction aimed to secure up to 6.8 GW of new capacity to address a shortfall in the 2028/29 delivery year driven by data-center load growth. The delay pushes back procurement of new generation needed to meet surging AI-driven demand in the 13-state PJM region. Read →
FERC directs PJM to revise backstop plan on data-center costs
Reuters · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
FERC directed PJM to postpone and overhaul its backstop procurement to ensure large loads like data centers bear more of the costs rather than spreading them across all customers. The regulator accepted core elements but suspended the process for five months while opening further proceedings, citing concerns over a flawed proposal with billion-dollar consumer implications. PJM had planned bidding from Sept. 30 to Oct. 21 to close the 6.8 GW capacity gap from its latest auction. Read →
French day-ahead power surges 38% to €202/MWh on EPEX
Selectra · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
French day-ahead power on EPEX SPOT averaged €202/MWh on Oct. 1, up 37.8% from €147/MWh the prior day, with the evening peak reaching €301/MWh. No negative prices occurred, and the minimum cleared at €162/MWh. France ranked among the higher-priced markets in the region, reflecting tight conditions ahead of winter. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China thermal coal benchmark hits three-year high at 986 yuan/t as domestic output lags and Indonesian exports tighten.
Asia seaborne thermal coal shrinks slowly as supply, demand both ease
Clyde Russell · Reuters · Tue, Sep 30, 2026
China and India are moderating seaborne thermal coal imports in 2026 amid higher prices tied to Middle East supply issues. Indonesian output is set to fall 60 Mt this year after a 2025 record, with government production caps and rising domestic metals demand tightening export supply. The gradual parallel decline in supply and demand points to relatively stable longer-term prices, though subject to volatility from events like China's mine inspections. Read →
Met coal softens as China mine restarts ease supply squeeze
BigMint · Tue, Sep 30, 2026
Australian premium hard coking coal fell to $273.60/t FOB from $277.50/t the prior week, with CFR China down $3/t to $296/t. China's metallurgical coal supply deficit narrowed sharply to 0.13 Mt in September from 3.18 Mt in August after mine restarts in Shanxi and higher Mongolian imports. Weak steel margins and completed pre-holiday restocking reduced Chinese spot buying for seaborne coking coal, while PCI held firmer on coke substitution. Read →
China coal prices jump 24% since mid-July to three-year high
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 30, 2026
Qinhuangdao spot thermal coal rose 0.5% to 986 yuan ($147)/t, a three-year high, for an 11th straight weekly gain. Prices are up 24% since mid-July on lower domestic production and reduced Indonesian imports due to quotas and logistics issues. Authorities are pushing miners to stabilize output ahead of winter amid tight supply for the top consumer. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA quarterly stocks show corn at 2.095B bu, 35% above year-ago and above estimates, pressuring prices.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 503 | +0.3% +2 |
+14.1% | +19.1% | -7.2% |
| Wheat | 679 | +0.5% +4 |
+34.0% | +32.0% | -10.1% |
| Soybeans | 1,290 | -0.2% -3 |
+25.2% | +26.0% | +3.5% |
| Sugar | 18.88 | +1.5% +0.27 |
+25.8% | +15.1% | -5.9% |
| Coffee | 285.2 | -1.9% -5.5 |
-18.2% | -24.6% | +39.8% |
| Cocoa | 5,178 | -3.5% -189 |
-14.6% | -20.1% | +91.1% |
| Cotton | 78.12 | -0.5% -0.40 |
+22.1% | +25.2% | -26.4% |
Corn drops on larger-than-expected USDA stocks.
Brownfield Ag News · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
USDA reported Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% year-over-year and well above the 1.924 billion average trade guess, signaling weaker demand. Corn futures fell sharply, with December dropping over 21 cents to near $5.00 per bushel amid technical selling. Read →
Grains ease but post weekly gains on short covering.
MillingandMillers.com · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
CBOT wheat fell 0.4% to $5.72 to 1/2, corn 0.1% to $4.10 to 1/4 and soybeans 0.2% to $10.21 to 1/2 on Friday as funds sold after a fortnight rally. All three still posted weekly gains of 2 to 4% on prior short covering and a weak dollar boosting exports. Read →
USDA: Corn stocks surge 35% YoY; soybeans dip 3%.
Morning Ag Clips · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
NASS data showed old-crop corn stocks at 2.10 billion bushels on Sept. 1, up 35% from 2025, with on-farm up 22% and off-farm up 44%. Soybean stocks fell 3% to 315 million bushels while all-wheat stocks dropped 14% to 1.85 billion. Read →
Soybeans climb on Chinese buying and higher oil prices.
Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
CBOT soybeans rose 0.5% to $10.66 on Friday, supported by USDA-confirmed 132,000 mt sales to China and higher oil prices. Traders noted narrowing export deficits as China books U.S. cargoes amid ongoing trade truce talks. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · China factory PMI rebound and Escondida strike risk tighten copper supply outlook.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,391 | -1.4% -207 |
+15.9% | +33.3% | +55.7% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,568 | +0.3% +48 |
+14.7% | +47.2% | +52.7% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,160 | -0.4% -13 |
+6.2% | +23.2% | +8.9% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,488 | -0.2% -8 |
+16.1% | +26.8% | +14.3% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,041 | -1.1% -173 |
-5.3% | +5.5% | -21.9% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,138 | -0.2% -4 |
-2.9% | +2.6% | +4.9% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
54,226 | +0.5% +282 |
+29.1% | +59.8% | +58.6% |
Copper edges up on China factory rebound data
Reuters · Thu, Oct 1, 5:39 AM ET
Benchmark three-month copper on the LME rose 0.1% to $14,453 per tonne amid China’s official manufacturing PMI climbing to 50.1 in September from 49.8, its first expansion in months. SHFE copper stocks fell 17.8% week-on-week to 38,744 tonnes, the lowest since January 2024, as pre-holiday demand drained inventories before the National Day shutdown. The metal is on track for a third straight monthly gain of about 1.1%. Read →
Escondida supervisors reject offer, head to mediation
Reuters · Wed, Oct 1
The 1,020-member supervisors’ union at BHP’s Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, voted 95% to reject the final contract offer and authorize strike action. Chilean law now requires at least five days of mandatory government mediation before any legal stoppage. The vote adds fresh supply risk after a fatal accident recently halted operations at the mine that produced 1.26 million tonnes in FY2026. Read →
China refined copper growth set for decades-low pace
Reuters · Sun, Sep 28
Analysts at Wood Mackenzie and Zijin Tianfeng forecast China’s refined copper output will grow only 3 to 3.4% in 2026, the slowest pace since at least 2000, versus 10.4% in 2025. Smelters face tightening scrap supply from a tax crackdown plus falling sulphuric acid prices that erode margins, with seven plants scheduling 30 to 60 days of maintenance that will cut 80,000 tonnes. The slowdown is expected to support prices into Q4. Read →
Copper steadies ahead of China holiday supply watch
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 1, 2:08 AM ET
LME copper contracts were little changed as attention turned to supply amid subdued trading volumes during China’s National Day holiday. Prices slipped earlier in the week after soft Chinese industrial earnings data, but physical tightness outside the US and ongoing mine risks remain in focus. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures and spot prices fell as only 8% of Chinese blast-furnace mills stayed profitable amid high coke costs and weak steel demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
92.7 | -0.0% -0.0 |
-7.9% | -3.1% | -13.0% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
401 | -0.1% -1 |
+1.8% | +3.5% | -44.4% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
429 | -0.4% -2 |
+4.1% | +4.4% | -43.3% |
Iron ore futures extend fall on weak Chinese mill margins
Sophie Becker · World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Iron ore futures fell below CNY 720 per ton for a third straight session. Only around 8% of Chinese mills remained profitable, the lowest since September 2024, due to persistently elevated coke prices. China Mineral Resources Group advised steelmakers to avoid Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Blend ore, pressuring demand for major Australian supply. Read →
62% Fe iron ore at $96.73/t as China steel output falls
Kalkine · Tue, Sep 30, 2026
62% Fe iron ore fines were assessed at US$96.73 per metric ton on September 29, down 0.20% on the day. China’s crude steel output fell 3.7% y/y in August and 3.1% over the first eight months. Port stocks rose 0.76% w/w to 152.17 million metric tons while SGX and DCE futures also declined. Read →
CISA urges steel output curbs as mill profitability hits 7.8%
Nikos Tagoulis · World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
China Iron and Steel Association called on producers to curb output to align with weak domestic demand. Only 7.8% of blast-furnace mills were profitable in mid-September, down from 32.5% at end-August, due to high coke costs and subdued consumption. Australian iron ore shipments to China rose 6.2% w/w ahead of National Day holiday restocking. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Rising Treasury yields offset softer US PCE data, pressuring gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,190 | +0.1% +3 |
-3.5% | +8.3% | +138% |
| Silver | 60.76 | +0.3% +0.19 |
-13.4% | +32.1% | +170% |
| Platinum | 1,719 | -0.0% -0 |
-15.5% | +9.9% | +76.8% |
| Palladium | 1,190 | -1.8% -22 |
-27.0% | -4.0% | -37.6% |
Yields rise, offsetting soft PCE and lower hike odds
Kitco · Wed, Sep 30, 5:51 PM ET
Spot gold and silver prices fell in late US trading Wednesday as cooler August PCE data reduced October Fed hike odds but failed to halt a further rise in long-dated Treasury yields. The report notes the complex traded lower despite the inflation print, with yields remaining the dominant driver. This dynamic underscores how bond-market moves continue to weigh on non-yielding precious metals even amid shifting rate expectations. Read →
Gold steady, silver gains amid yields and Fed watch
Anshul · CNBC TV18 · Wed, Sep 30, 9:58 PM ET
Gold held steady near $4,192 per ounce while silver gained modestly on October 1 as markets assessed US rates, Treasury yields, the dollar and geopolitics. The piece highlights five straight days of rising gold ETF holdings as evidence of persistent longer-term investment demand despite the September correction. Key watches include yields, Fed policy signals and upcoming jobs data. Read →
Gold steady, silver platinum palladium slip in Asia
Aletihad / WAM · Thu, Oct 1
Spot gold changed little at $4,146.66 per ounce in early Asian trade Thursday while silver fell 0.4 percent, platinum 0.1 percent and palladium 0.4 percent. US gold futures for December eased 0.3 percent. The report captures the overnight consolidation after Wednesday’s session where softer US inflation data provided only brief support before yields reasserted pressure. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Lynas buys Meteoric for $672M, adding Brazil heavy rare earths to Western supply.
Lynas buys Meteoric for $672M in all-share deal
Reuters · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths agreed to acquire Meteoric Resources in an all-share deal valuing it at A$968 million ($672 million), offering a 68% premium. The deal gives Lynas access to the Caldeira ionic clay rare earth project in Brazil, one of the largest known outside China, with significant neodymium-praseodymium and dysprosium-terbium resources. Lynas plans to advance development with over $500 million in capex and an interim A$110 million facility, expanding non-Chinese heavy rare earth supply for magnets amid Western diversification efforts. Read →
Lynas acquires Meteoric for Brazil rare earth access
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 30, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths will acquire Meteoric Resources in an all-share deal worth about A$968 million ($672 million). The transaction provides Lynas, the largest rare earths producer outside China, with a new Brazilian deposit to diversify resources beyond its Australian operations. It supports efforts to build alternative supply chains for critical minerals used in EVs, renewables, and defense. Read →
MP Materials readies commercial magnet shipments to GM
Yahoo Finance / Insider Monkey · Tue, Sep 23, 2026
MP Materials is nearing full run-rate NdPr oxide production at Mountain Pass and has delivered prototype magnets to General Motors for qualification testing. Commercial magnet shipments from its Fort Worth facility are scheduled to begin in Q4 2026 under a long-term supply agreement. The company is also advancing heavy rare earth separation for dysprosium and terbium to support domestic permanent magnet supply chains. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Capesize weakness drives Baltic Dry Index to 3,113, its lowest since late August, as VLCC tanker earnings remain elevated amid Hormuz restrictions.
Baltic Dry Index drops to 3,113, lowest since August 27
Linh Nguyen · World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index fell 65 points or 2.05% to 3,113 on Wednesday, its lowest since August 27, pulled down by a 175-point, 3.43% drop in the Capesize index to 4,928. Capesize daily earnings fell $1,584 to $41,191 while Panamax shed six points to 2,384. Supramax held steady at 1,797, its highest since August 2022; iron ore futures edged higher on Chinese stimulus and factory data. Read →
Iran seizes two MSC containerships in Hormuz attacks
Carlos Nieves · World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Iran’s IRGC fired on three containerships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday and seized two: the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca (11,312 TEU) and Liberia-flagged Epaminondas (6,673 TEU). The vessels were accused of operating without permits and tampering with navigation systems; Epaminondas sustained bridge damage. The incidents mark renewed direct action on commercial shipping amid ongoing Hormuz restrictions. Read →
VLCC rates surge to record $424,000 per day on Hormuz disruption
Carlos Nieves · World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Spot VLCC rates from the Middle East to China exceeded $424,000 per day on Monday, shattering prior records as the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz slashed transits and forced longer shuttle and STS operations. Earnings have more than doubled from pre-crisis levels, with tonne-mile demand rising sharply; analysts expect sustained high rates into 2027 amid limited vessel availability. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS MSR reform and Virginia RGGI return lift North American and European carbon prices amid policy tightening.
EU backs MSR tweaks to retain permits, curb EUA spikes
Kate Abnett · Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 4:30 AM ET
EU ambassadors agreed to retain excess CO2 permits in the Market Stability Reserve instead of cancelling them until 2030, raising the cancellation threshold from 2031. The changes respond to energy-price pressure from the Iran conflict and requests from Poland and Italy. The reform keeps a buffer that can release permits if EUA prices more than double, supporting price stability in Europe's main emissions market. Read →
BCG survey: VCM buyer targets triple since 2022
Carbon Herald / BCG · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
A BCG survey of 300 buyers shows target voluntary carbon credit portfolio prices have roughly tripled since 2022, with one in four now aiming for $51 to 100/t and some above $100/t. Unmet quality demand could add nearly $1.5 billion in annual market value at current retirement volumes. Average target sits at $58/t, only modestly above current spend, highlighting both willingness to pay premiums and supply constraints for higher-integrity credits. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid CL crude-oil perps surge past $1.2B 24h volume amid Mideast tensions as tokenized commodities near $4B.
Hyperliquid oil perps hit $1.2B daily volume on Mideast spike.
Vlad Schepkov · Investing.com · Sat, Oct 3, 3:54 AM ET
Hyperliquid’s CL-USDC WTI crude perpetual contract posted over $1.2 billion in 24-hour volume, becoming the platform’s second-most traded market behind Bitcoin. Volumes jumped from roughly $21 million daily before the latest Iran-related escalation to the new peak, with open interest reaching $183 million and nearly $75 million in shorts liquidated. The 24/7 on-chain venue priced the move to $107 intraday ahead of traditional exchanges. Read →
Tokenized commodities reach $3.93B on gold and silver records.
Zoltan Vardai · Cointelegraph · Thu, Oct 1 (time unknown)
Tokenized commodities climbed 11% over the prior month to $3.93 billion according to RWA.xyz data, with Tether Gold (XAUT) at $1.74 billion and Paxos Gold (PAXG) at $1.61 billion as the largest holdings. Spot gold hit a record $4,530 per ounce and silver briefly touched $74.56 amid the rally. The category enables 24/7 on-chain transfer and trading of precious-metals exposure outside traditional market hours. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · LNG Canada Phase 2 FID and Coastal GasLink expansion drive North American natural gas infrastructure buildout.
TC Energy proceeds with Coastal GasLink Phase 2 expansion
Reuters · Tue, Sep 29, 2026
TC Energy confirmed its Coastal GasLink Phase 2 project will proceed after LNG Canada’s FID, nearly doubling pipeline capacity via new compressor stations and upgrades on the existing 670-km route. The expansion, with construction starting early 2027 and in-service in the early 2030s, will transport up to an additional 2.1 Bcf/d of natural gas to the terminal. It creates up to 2,100 peak construction jobs and bolsters Canada’s LNG export infrastructure without new pipeline build. Read →
Stolt-Nielsen posts Q3 net profit of $84.4 million
GlobeNewswire · Wed, Oct 1, 2026
Stolt-Nielsen reported Q3 net profit of $84.4 million (up from $64.0 million) on revenue of $776.5 million, including a $15.4 million gain on sale of 50% of Avenir LNG. Consolidated EBITDA rose slightly to $194.1 million despite softer tanker operating profit; terminals improved. The results reflect steady underlying performance in liquid logistics and LNG-related investments amid challenging tanker markets. Read →
Jefferson buys Port Arthur terminal and Hardisty DRU stake for $255 million
GlobeNewswire / Markets Insider · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
FTAI Energy Partners (Jefferson) agreed to acquire the Port Arthur, Texas crude terminal and 50% of the Hardisty, Alberta diluent recovery unit from USD Group for $255 million cash. The assets are expected to generate $50 million annual EBITDA and more than double Jefferson’s existing Adjusted EBITDA under a long-term take-or-pay contract. Closing is targeted for Q4 2026 subject to regulatory approvals. Read →
Equinor acquires 17.4% stake in Namibia PEL 90 from Chevron unit
Chris Carpenter · Journal of Petroleum Technology · Thu, Oct 1, 2026
Equinor acquired a 17.4% participating interest in PEL 90 in Namibia’s Orange Basin from Harmattan Energy (Chevron subsidiary), marking its first entry into the country. The license contains a drill-ready prospect to be tested before year-end. The deal aligns with Equinor’s strategy to grow its international exploration portfolio in the Atlantic Margin. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Russia extends diesel export ban through October amid US pressure on Europe to release stocks or face ban.
US tells France, Germany: release diesel stocks or face export ban
Reuters · Thu, Oct 1, 2026, 7:51 AM ET
The Trump administration warned France and Germany to draw down emergency diesel inventories or risk a US diesel export ban. US officials seek about 120 million barrels of EU diesel releases over six months to ease global prices. France and Germany hold roughly 35% of the EU's strategic diesel reserves; the pressure follows perceived shortfalls on prior IEA commitments. Read →
Congress weighs phosphate fertilizer CVD suspension
EveryCRSReport.com · Mon, Sep 29, 2026
President Trump authorized an eight-month suspension of countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports under a June 2026 emergency proclamation to address supply risks and high prices. The duties, in place since 2021, had raised costs for US corn, soybean and wheat farmers. Congress is considering options to amend the CVD regime or make the suspension permanent. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
US tells EU: release diesel stocks or lose US exports
X / multiple traders · Thu, Oct 1
Traders on X are buzzing over Reuters-sourced reports that the US is demanding France and Germany draw down emergency diesel reserves (up to 120 million barrels over six months) or risk a US diesel export ban. The move aims to ease US retail diesel prices amid tight global supplies from Middle East and Russia disruptions; discussions highlight risks to European industry and potential market tightening. Read →
China halts Oct fuel exports amid low inventories
X / multiple traders · Thu, Oct 1
Commodity analysts and #OOTT traders are reacting to reports that Chinese refiners have suspended exports of gasoline, jet fuel and other products beyond Hong Kong/Macau until further notice after Golden Week, with PetroChina cancelling most October cargoes. The step prioritizes domestic supply as inventories hit multi-year lows, further tightening an already strained global refined products market especially for diesel. Read →
Ukraine hits Russian oil site in Samara
X / multiple traders · Thu, Oct 1
X traders and news accounts note Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's confirmation of strikes on a Samara-region oil facility plus other Russian targets. This adds to ongoing pressure on Russian refining capacity from prior drone attacks, which have already prompted Moscow to restrict diesel exports; conversations link it to broader supply tightness and US political commentary on diesel prices. Read →
Tankers struck in Hormuz Strait
X / @staunovo · Thu, Oct 1
#OOTT and energy traders are discussing reports of three tankers struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to ongoing shipping risks and volatility. The incident underscores persistent geopolitical tensions despite some recovery in Saudi crude loadings and transits, keeping a risk premium in crude and products. Read →
Saudi loadings top pre-conflict averages
X / multiple traders · Thu, Oct 1
Market participants on X highlight data showing Saudi crude loadings reached 6.4 million bpd last week, exceeding the 2025 pre-conflict average, with Hormuz transits also surging. While this signals some supply recovery efforts, traders note it has not fully offset broader disruptions or calmed product-market tightness. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Sankey on gas, diesel outlook and Iran war cooling
Sankey Research lead analyst discusses gas and diesel outlook plus whether the Iran war is cooling. Watch/Listen →
Rozencwajg: commodities in early bull market stages
Natural resources stocks are massively underowned in early bull market. Watch/Listen →
Hambro: new cycle from AI, electrification, underinvestment
Evy Hambro, BlackRock on Bloomberg TV (video) · Wed, Sep 30
Tight supply from AI, electrification and underinvestment supports prices long-term. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
19%
-1pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
58%
-1pp w/w
Saudi East-West oil pipeline restarts by October 15
34%
-34pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by October 31
10%
-11pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
36%
-33pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
9%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
12%
+6pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
13%
-9pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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