Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Monday, September 28, 2026 · 48 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Mon, Sep 28, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up $3.55 (+3.4%) on Trump rejecting Iranian peace proposal. The rally began with a $2 move higher late Friday into Saturday morning following an 8:36pm NY time Friday evening WSJ story stating Trump rejected Iran’s 7 day Hormuz/ceasefire plan. No restart of the Saudi EW pipe yet.
Silver down $3.28 (-5.1%) on stronger dollar, rising US Treasury yields and oil-driven inflation concerns boosting Fed rate-hike odds.
US Nat Gas down $0.125 (-3.9%) on lower demand forecasts and pipeline flow updates.
Palladium down $48 (-3.8%) on surging sovereign yields and hawkish Fed signals raising opportunity cost of non-yielding assets.
Platinum down $61 (-3.4%) on stronger-than-expected PMI data, higher yields and dollar strength weighing on industrial and investment demand.
Gold down $142 (-3.3%) on rising oil prices stoking inflation fears and lifting expectations for further US rate hikes. This (Monday) morning the US 30 year reached highs not seen since 2004 (5.54%). Gold pays no interest, so rising yields raise the opportunity cost of holding it. Markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of another 25 bp hike in October
Silver down $3.28 (-5.1%) on stronger dollar, rising US Treasury yields and oil-driven inflation concerns boosting Fed rate-hike odds.
US Nat Gas down $0.125 (-3.9%) on lower demand forecasts and pipeline flow updates.
Palladium down $48 (-3.8%) on surging sovereign yields and hawkish Fed signals raising opportunity cost of non-yielding assets.
Platinum down $61 (-3.4%) on stronger-than-expected PMI data, higher yields and dollar strength weighing on industrial and investment demand.
Gold down $142 (-3.3%) on rising oil prices stoking inflation fears and lifting expectations for further US rate hikes. This (Monday) morning the US 30 year reached highs not seen since 2004 (5.54%). Gold pays no interest, so rising yields raise the opportunity cost of holding it. Markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of another 25 bp hike in October
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Grains ease after US-China tariff cuts on farm goods
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Crop futures eased after the US and China detailed plans to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of agricultural products from each side following last week’s Trump-Xi summit. Traders await concrete signs of purchases for US corn, wheat, sorghum and other farm goods as an agricultural working group is established. Read →
Oil rebounds as US-Iran Hormuz talks stall
Florence Tan · Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Oil prices rebounded more than 1% after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to resolve the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Middle East tensions elevated. Read →
Oil climbs as Trump rejects Iran deal; Asia stocks slip
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Brent futures rose about 2% after Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz proposal; diesel prices hit record highs with the crack spread around $75 versus a historical average of $15, pressuring bonds ahead of economic data. Read →
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In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 5US Natural Gas 4Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 2Coal 3Agriculture 2Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 1Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 4Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Oil rebounds as Trump rejects Iran Hormuz deal, stalling supply relief and lifting Brent toward $108.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 95.48 | +3.3% +3.07 |
+66.3% | +50.5% | +26.8% |
| Brent | 107.87 | +3.4% +3.55 |
+65.4% | +48.1% | +27.3% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.243 | +1.7% +0.055 |
+90.2% | +62.5% | +47.3% |
| Heating Oil | 4.653 | +4.3% +0.190 |
+119% | +97.4% | +103% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
40.73 | -1.8% -0.74 |
+187% +26.52 |
+100% +20.38 |
+137% +23.54 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
99.92 | +5.2% +4.93 |
+216% +68.28 |
+181% +64.40 |
+379% +79.08 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
60.46 | +1.9% +1.15 |
+202% +40.44 |
+138% +35.05 |
+228% +42.05 |
Oil rises as Iran holds firm on Hormuz reopening terms after Trump rejects deal.
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Brent futures advanced toward $108 a barrel and WTI climbed above $94 after Iran refused to soften conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal transmitted via Qatar but said he expects negotiations to resume this week. The stalemate revives near-term supply disruption risks through the waterway that handles about 20% of global oil trade before the conflict. Read →
Oil rebounds after Trump rejects Iran peace deal on Hormuz reopening.
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Brent rose more than 3% to $107.75 a barrel and WTI gained over 2% as Trump rejected Iran’s UNGA proposal for a quick Hormuz reopening. Houthis launched missiles and drones at Saudi targets, intercepted by the Saudi-led coalition. Mideast crude exports rebounded to 12.8 million bpd in September, the highest since February, with Hormuz flows set for about 7.4 million bpd amid Saudi rerouting from Yanbu. Read →
Mideast crude exports hit highest since war start at 12.8 million bpd.
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Kpler data showed key Gulf producers shipping 12.8 million bpd in September, up sharply from August lows, driven by Saudi and UAE increases. Saudi diverted cargoes to Ras Tanura after East-West pipeline damage forced Yanbu shutdown. Hormuz throughput recovered toward 7.4 million bpd this month but remains well below pre-war levels. Read →
Brent hits $106 as Trump rejects Iran Hormuz peace proposal.
The Economic Times · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Brent futures rose $1.65 to $106 a barrel and WTI added nearly $1 after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for resolving the conflict and reopening Hormuz. The move keeps geopolitical risk premium in place despite some supply recovery via alternative routes. Record US diesel prices continue to pressure refined-product markets and widen the Brent-WTI spread. Read →
IEA: Global oil stocks drew 95 million barrels in August amid tight supply.
IEA · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Global observed inventories fell another 95 million barrels in August, the largest monthly draw since the conflict began, for a cumulative 507 million barrel decline or 2.8 million bpd average. Refining margins hit records in the Atlantic Basin on diesel cracks while tanker traffic and on-water stocks declined further. The IEA highlights shrinking buffers and stretched refining amid Middle East disruptions. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Appalachian pipeline outage and slower storage builds lift Henry Hub to 13-week high near $3.20.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.071 | -3.9% -0.125 |
-15.5% | -4.6% | -46.7% |
EIA storage build narrows surplus, lifts prices to 11-week high.
Agna Gabriel · Trading Economics · Thu, Sep 24, 2:48 PM ET
Energy firms added 53 Bcf to US storage in the week ended Sep 18, below the 76 Bcf five-year average and prior-year 77 Bcf amid hot weather. Lower 48 output fell toward an 11-week low of 108.4 bcfd with drops in Louisiana and West Virginia. LNG feedgas averaged 17.8 bcfd in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August despite Cove Point maintenance; the tighter balance pushed prices to $3.20/MMBtu, the highest since July 8. Read →
Appalachian pipeline outage and storage data push gas to 13-week high.
Energy Intelligence · Fri, Sep 25, 2026
An unplanned outage on TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission Mountaineer XPress pipeline in West Virginia cut up to 1.8 bcfd of Appalachian flows after a leak at the Saunders Creek Regulator Station. The EIA’s 53 Bcf storage build confirmed a tightening physical balance. October futures jumped 9.1% to $3.297/MMBtu on Thursday, the biggest one-day gain in months. Read →
Pipeline repair hopes erase outage premium, futures fall.
Everett Wheeler · Energy Intelligence · Fri, Sep 25, 2026
Columbia Gas Transmission said crews expect to fix the Mountaineer XPress leak over the weekend, limiting the production impact to about 1.4 bcfd rather than the full 1.8 bcfd initially feared. October futures gave back 10.1 cents to close at $3.196/MMBtu after Thursday’s surge. The episode highlighted short-term Appalachian takeaway vulnerability amid already slowing storage injections. Read →
EIA: 53 Bcf storage build narrows surplus to 95 Bcf.
Energy Intelligence · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
Working gas inventories rose 53 Bcf in the week ended Sep 18 to 3,351 Bcf, leaving the surplus over the five-year average at 95 Bcf, down from 118 Bcf the prior week. Hot weather supported cooling demand while production slipped and LNG flows held firm near 17.8 bcfd. The lighter-than-normal injection reinforced expectations for a tighter balance heading into fall. Read →
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Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises 2% to €73/MWh on technical support and lower renewables output; JKM holds near $25.80/MMBtu amid Asia-Europe cargo tug-of-war.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
73.87 | +2.7% +1.98 |
+156% | +125% | -8.3% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
24.64 | +2.7% +0.66 |
+156% | +125% | -8.3% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
25.82 | -2.1% -0.56 |
+169% | +130% | -12.0% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sat, Sep 26
EU gas storage is 70.9% full, 802 TWh in store, 15.7 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.3 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 57.4%.
EU full 70.9% +0.25 pts d/d | Year ago 82.2% | 5-yr avg 86.6% same date |
Germany 57.4% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Europe braces for LNG tug of war with Asia
Verity Ratcliffe · Financial Times · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
Platts JKM traded at $25.29/MMBtu Friday while European deliveries sat at $24.62/MMBtu per Spark Commodities. Price-sensitive Asian buyers including India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are securing cargoes at $25/MMBtu levels unseen in 2022, tightening competition for winter supply as EU storage sits at multi-year lows. The shift marks a fundamental change in global gas market dynamics, supporting both benchmarks via inter-basin arbitrage. Read →
JKM and TTF fell last week as HH rose
JOGMEC · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
JKM fell to low-USD 27s/MMBtu for November delivery from mid-USD 28s the prior week on easing Middle East risk premiums, ample Northeast Asian inventories and subdued shoulder-season demand. TTF (October) settled at USD 26.7/MMBtu after peaking near USD 27.8/MMBtu mid-week on supply concerns before retreating on warmer European weather forecasts, higher Norwegian flows and rising LNG imports; EU storage stood at 69.3%. Henry Hub edged higher on robust LNG feedgas demand. Read →
High LNG spot prices curb Asian imports, aid Europe
World Energy News · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Kpler data shows Asia LNG arrivals at 20.09 Mt in September, the lowest since 2018, as spot prices near $26/MMBtu deter Chinese and South Asian buyers. Europe captured higher volumes with October arrivals projected at 10.53 Mt. The price surge since Qatari LNG losses has redirected flexible cargoes toward northwest Europe, supporting TTF send-out and storage refill pace. Read →
JKM at $25.81/MMBtu up 0.35% with TTF premium
EnergyRiskIQ · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
JKM rose 0.35% day-over-day to $25.81/MMBtu while TTF gained 1.98% to €73.31/MWh, narrowing the JKM-TTF spread to $4.32/MMBtu. EU storage at 70.9% (17.1% below seasonal norm) keeps European buyers competitive for Pacific cargoes, sustaining the arb that influences both benchmarks' near-term direction. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM capacity shortfall and data-center demand drive US power tightness; UK issues Monday evening margin warning.
UK grid flags 1.4 GW margin shortfall Monday evening
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 6:46 AM ET
Britain’s National Energy System Operator warned of a possible 1.4 GW margin shortfall from 4pm Monday BST before overnight wind relief. The notice urges extra generation availability but stresses no customer supply risk or need for action. It highlights near-term tightness in the UK power system ahead of expected wind increases. Read →
Germany negative power price hours decline first time in four years
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 7:37 AM ET
Germany is on track for its first annual drop in negative power price hours in four years due to stronger demand and renewable support changes. Negative prices, driven by renewable oversupply, have risen sharply elsewhere in Europe. The shift signals improving balance in the German market amid broader EU renewable growth. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Indonesia's export slump and India's captive plant order tighten thermal coal supply amid record demand.
Indonesia coal exports hit five-year low on quotas, low water.
Bloomberg / Mining Weekly · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Indonesia's exports fell to a five-year low this month after government quota cuts and low river levels hampered barging. Demand for Indonesian coal is rising as buyers in China, South Korea and Japan switch from natural gas amid higher prices linked to Middle East tensions. The supply squeeze supports Newcastle futures near two-year highs and Chinese prices at 2023 levels. Read →
India orders 112 captive coal plants to max output from Oct 1.
Reuters · Fri, Sep 26, 2026
India's power ministry directed 112 captive coal-fired plants of 50 MW+ to run at full capacity from October 1 to year-end under Section 11 emergency powers. Nearly 40% of coal plants hold critically low stocks amid El Niño-driven heat and weak hydro output. The order requires weekly reporting of generation, stocks and surplus sales on exchanges. Read →
China to import at least 10 Mt US coal in 2027 and 2028.
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Following the Trump-Xi summit, China agreed to buy at least 10 million metric tons of US coal annually in 2027 and 2028. The pledge revives a flow that exceeded 12 Mt in 2024 before tariffs curtailed it. It comes as Indonesian supply uncertainty and domestic Chinese output constraints create room for additional imports. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · China tariff cuts on US corn/wheat exclude soybeans, pressuring grains after summit.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 522 | -1.1% -6 |
+18.6% | +23.9% | -1.9% |
| Wheat | 697 | -0.9% -7 |
+37.4% | +34.1% | -1.4% |
| Soybeans | 1,297 | -1.6% -22 |
+25.9% | +28.4% | +1.6% |
| Sugar | 18.42 | -0.4% -0.08 |
+22.7% | +15.0% | -3.0% |
| Coffee | 279.7 | +0.4% +1.1 |
-19.8% | -24.9% | +40.8% |
| Cocoa | 5,672 | +0.9% +53 |
-6.5% | -18.9% | +122% |
| Cotton | 82.66 | -0.1% -0.05 |
+28.6% | +31.1% | -18.1% |
China cuts tariffs on US corn, wheat, meat but keeps soybean duties.
Reuters · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
China's commerce ministry announced tariff reductions on about $17 billion of US agricultural imports including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy and oils, but soybeans remain subject to an extra 10% tariff. State buyers have already purchased over 12 million metric tons of US soybeans, nearing half the 25 million ton annual target through 2028. The exclusion leaves private Chinese crushers facing high costs while the broader ag working group aims to facilitate future deals. Read →
Summit yields truce extension and soybean progress but few new ag buys.
Hoosier Ag Today · Sun, Sep 27, 2026
Trump-Xi talks ended without major new purchase announcements beyond extending the trade truce to January 10. China is on track with soybean commitments via state buyers, but lags on the separate $17 billion annual pledge for other US ag products like corn and pork. Markets reacted with weakness as specifics on broader demand remain pending. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Base metals slide on broad selloff; LME copper drops 1%, lithium carbonate futures plunge 4.15% amid pre-holiday caution and weaker China industrial profits.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,588 | -2.2% -328 |
+17.5% | +36.7% | +55.9% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,498 | -0.7% -108 |
+14.2% | +46.5% | +52.0% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,174 | -0.6% -20 |
+6.7% | +23.7% | +9.4% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,483 | -1.1% -37 |
+16.0% | +26.7% | +14.1% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,279 | -1.3% -222 |
-3.9% | +7.1% | -20.8% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,135 | -0.7% -15 |
-3.1% | +2.4% | +4.7% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
53,715 | -1.0% -554 |
+27.9% | +58.3% | +57.1% |
Base metals tumble; LME copper, SHFE tin/nickel lead declines as lithium carbona
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Sep 28, 2:27 PM ET
All SHFE base metals fell midday with copper down 0.72%, aluminum 0.68%, zinc 0.97%, tin 1.25% and nickel 1.18%. LME copper fell 1.01%, tin 1.72% and zinc 0.86%. Lithium carbonate's most-traded contract dropped 4.15%. Read →
Escondida unions reject pause in talks after worker death; operations resuming g
Reuters · Fri, Sep 25, 4:46 PM ET
Unions at BHP's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, rejected management's request to pause contract negotiations after a fatal maintenance accident on Wednesday. Operations are gradually resuming after regulatory checks; supervisors vote on the offer next week. Read →
Copper slips on softer China industrial profits and pre-holiday caution.
The Edge Malaysia · Mon, Sep 28
LME copper fell as much as 1.6% after China reported industrial enterprise profits rose only 4.2% YoY in August, the weakest since November. Traders cite the upcoming National Day holiday and macro caution despite prior tightness signals. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · CISA self-discipline call and pre-Golden Week restocking drive iron ore buying amid weak steel margins and rising port stocks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
92.9 | -1.3% -1.3 |
-7.7% | -2.9% | -12.8% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
401 | -0.4% -2 |
+1.7% | +3.4% | -44.4% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
431 | -0.4% -2 |
+4.7% | +5.0% | -43.0% |
CISA urges output curbs as mill profits collapse to 7.8%.
Breakwave Advisors · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
CISA called on mills for voluntary production restraint amid only 7.8% of blast-furnace mills profitable in mid-September, down from 32.5% end-August. Subdued demand and high coke prices squeezed margins; Australian shipments to China rose 6.2% w-o-w as mills rebuild stocks ahead of National Day holiday. This supports near-term iron ore demand despite longer-term weak steel consumption. Read →
China 10-port iron ore stocks build 0.67% to 102.59 Mt.
Hellenic Shipping News / MMi · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
10 major Chinese ports iron ore inventories rose to 102.594 Mt (+681,500 Mt w-o-w), ending three weeks of draws, with the full build in fines. 35-port total reached 145.45 Mt (+1.12 Mt). Rising arrivals and pre-holiday restocking outweigh weak hot-metal output (2.3943 Mt/day). This adds to port stock pressure and caps upside for 62% Fe prices. Read →
CISA: steel demand misses September peak expectations.
SEAISI / CISA · Sun, Sep 28, 2026
CISA reported end-user steel demand failed to recover meaningfully in September despite the seasonal peak. Mill inventories of five major products rose 1.7% early September to 16.52 Mt; trader stocks in 21 cities at 9.59 Mt. High coking coal/coke costs pressure prices with limited upside despite firm input costs; production cuts remain limited even as some mills record losses. Read →
47-port iron ore inventories up 0.5% to 172.17 Mt.
Mysteel · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Imported iron ore stocks at 47 major Chinese ports rose for the second straight week to 172.17 Mt (+805,700 Mt or 0.5% w-o-w, +18.3% y-o-y). Steel mills trim production amid losses while building pre-holiday ore stocks; spot and futures prices declined on weakening demand. This reinforces loose supply-demand balance for iron ore ahead of Golden Week. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Precious metals prices plunge over 2% Monday on surging oil prices and hawkish Fed rate-hike bets.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,179 | -3.3% -142 |
-3.7% | +8.4% | +141% |
| Silver | 61.53 | -5.1% -3.28 |
-12.3% | +32.0% | +174% |
| Platinum | 1,717 | -3.4% -61 |
-14.4% | +8.2% | +81.2% |
| Palladium | 1,228 | -3.8% -48 |
-24.6% | -3.0% | -33.8% |
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium prices fall over 2% on oil surge.
Emirates News Agency (WAM) · Mon, Sep 28, 8:24 AM ET
Spot gold fell 2.1% to $4,198.10/oz and US futures to $4,231.00 as higher oil prices stoked inflation fears and boosted expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes this week. Silver dropped 3.4% to $62.08/oz, platinum 2.7% to $1,730.78/oz and palladium 2.8% to $1,231.46/oz. The move underscores how energy-driven inflation signals are pressuring non-yielding assets across the complex. Read →
Northern Star rejects Gold Fields' $27bn takeover offer.
Financial Times · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Northern Star Resources rejected an unsolicited A$39bn ($27bn) offer from South Africa’s Gold Fields as opportunistic and undervaluing its assets. The deal would have created the world’s second-largest gold miner and Australia’s largest with 2.4 million ounces annual output, mostly from Western Australia. Shares in Northern Star rose 7% after the rejection, highlighting consolidation pressure in the gold mining sector amid volatile prices. Read →
Palladium drops 3%+ to near $1,237/oz amid broader selloff.
Financial Times · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Palladium traded at $1,237/oz, down more than 3% on the day with a 52-week range of $1,171, $2,265. The decline aligns with the broader precious metals complex selloff driven by higher oil prices and rate-hike expectations. FT markets coverage notes parallel moves in platinum, gold and silver amid the risk-off sentiment. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Futures lift Pr-Nd prices slightly as US-China trade truce extends to Jan 10 amid stockpiling fears.
German firms stockpile rare earths ahead of EU-China talks
Frida Preuss and Carlo Martuscelli · POLITICO · Thu, Sep 24, 2026
German companies are accelerating stockpiles of rare earths and critical raw materials over fears Beijing will retaliate with export curbs if EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič’s Oct. 8 to 9 Beijing talks fail to narrow the bloc’s trade deficit. China recently extended suspension of expanded rare-earth controls to Jan. 10 as part of the US truce. The move highlights Europe’s near-total dependence on Chinese heavy rare earths and magnets for autos, wind and defense. Read →
Futures support Pr-Nd oxide; Dy, Tb steady
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 9:20 AM China time (Sun, Sep
Pr-Nd oxide quotes rose modestly on futures support before pausing midday, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide offers held unchanged last week amid thin spot demand and pre-Mid-Autumn Festival caution. Pr-Nd alloy edged higher on raw-material costs; medium-heavy segments stayed flat with subdued inquiries. Market sentiment remains range-bound ahead of the holiday. Read →
US-China extend truce, cut tariffs on $60B goods
Reuters · Sun, Sep 28, 2026
Following last week’s Trump-Xi summit, Washington and Beijing agreed to reciprocal tariff cuts on $30B each of non-sensitive goods and extended their trade truce to Jan. 10. The US readout notes ongoing talks to restore rare-earth shipment levels; China’s statement omits rare earths. The two-month extension buys time for broader negotiations but leaves permanent-magnet supply chains exposed. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI dips 1.3% to 3,426 on capesize weakness while VLCC rates stay firm above $100k/day amid Hormuz constraints.
Capesize rates ease but BDI holds near highs; VLCCs soften slightly in Middle Ea
Ilyas Salim · The Business Times · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index fell about 1.3% to 3,426 points Friday, pressured by a 2.6% drop in the capesize segment to 5,784 points. VLCC rates on the TD3C Middle East Gulf-China route eased to WS1,157.5 from WS1,165 the prior week, still delivering round-trip TCE earnings above $1.2 million per day. Suezmax and Aframax markets showed mixed moves with some Atlantic routes firming on tonnage tightness. Read →
VLCC markets stay firm despite slight weekly softening on Baltic routes.
Priya Anika Rajan · World Ports Organization · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
VLCC rates on key Baltic routes including TD3C MEG-China held at WS126.5 with daily TCE near $112,000 despite a 4-point weekly decline. Suezmax TD20 UK Continent route fell 21 points to WS149.72 while remaining firm overall. The report notes continued strength in the VLCC sector amid ongoing market conditions. Read →
Capesize timecharter average rises $142 week-on-week to $52,457.
SAFETY4SEA · Mon, Sep 28, 2026
Capesize earnings edged higher for the week to a $52,457 timecharter average despite Friday pullback, supported by Atlantic trans-Atlantic and fronthaul strength on tighter North Atlantic tonnage. Panamax and supramax segments posted gains on improving cargo enquiry. The weekly summary highlights resilient dry bulk conditions heading into October. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS reform advances as ambassadors back MSR changes to buffer price spikes amid €87/t EUA levels.
Draft linkage agreement released for California-Washington-Québec carbon markets
Environmental Defense Fund · Fri, Sep 26
Washington, California and Québec released a draft agreement outlining integration of Washington into the California-Québec cap-and-invest market. The unified system would feature joint allowance auctions, reciprocal acceptance of allowances and a common carbon price to increase liquidity and reduce volatility. Linkage is targeted for 2027 following final regulatory steps in each jurisdiction. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC updated FAQs Thursday allowing futures firms to invest customer funds in tokenized permitted assets and use blockchain for recordkeeping.
CFTC updates FAQs on tokenized investments and on-chain recordkeeping for regist
CFTC · Thu, Sep 24
CFTC staff released updates to the FAQs originally issued March 20, 2026, adding guidance on customer-fund investments in tokenized forms of permitted investments and the use of blockchain for recordkeeping. Chairman Michael S. Selig said the updates align with ongoing efforts to provide regulatory clarity. The changes build on prior staff letters on tokenized collateral without creating new binding rules or exemptions. Read →
Gold perps hold $299.55M OI on Hyperliquid, second only to S&P 500 contract.
Cryptopolitan / EdgeX Pro · Wed, Sep 24
As of September 24, Hyperliquid's gold perpetual futures contract ranks second by open interest with $299.55 million, behind only the S&P 500 contract, and has outpaced equities, top stocks, and oil in recent trading activity under the HIP-3 framework. Tokenized gold and commodities total nearly $5 billion in value, dominated by Tether's XAUT and Paxos Gold. Large positions include a $40.83 million long held by one of 39 whale accounts, underscoring active leveraged trading of the commodity on the on-chain venue. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Saudi Aramco advances standalone gas division with Evercore advisory, eyeing potential $100B+ valuation or listing amid LNG push.
Aramco hires Evercore to spin off standalone gas division for potential $100B+ l
Bloomberg · Sat, Sep 26, 2026
Saudi Aramco hired Evercore to advise on restructuring its gas operations into a standalone division, potentially enabling new investment or a minority listing valued above $100 billion. Boston Consulting Group supported the Project Gamma plan to unlock value by separating gas from upstream and downstream units. The move aligns with Aramco's strategy to expand gas production and LNG exports while retaining control of core oil assets. Read →
Amni and TotalEnergies sanction $800M Ima gas FID to feed NLNG Train 7
Reuters · Fri, Sep 25, 2026
Amni International (60%) and TotalEnergies (40%, operator) reached FID on the $800 million Ima gas project offshore Nigeria on OMLs 112/117. The shallow-water field, discovered in 1973, will produce up to 350 MMcf/d from 2028 via a single platform and pipeline to NLNG, supplying about one-third of gas for Train 7 expansion. Nigeria's reforms and fiscal incentives enabled the fourth major gas FID, with strong local content and low-emission design. Read →
Inpex preempts JERA's Ichthys stake sale, raising interest to 68.555%
Reuters · Fri, Sep 25, 2026
Inpex exercised pre-emptive rights to acquire JERA's 0.735% participating interest in Australia's Ichthys LNG project, blocking a prior agreement with MidOcean Energy. The deal lifts Inpex's stake from 67.82% to 68.555% across the gas-condensate field, pipeline, and liquefaction facilities, subject to Australian regulatory approval. It supports Inpex's upstream gas expansion and Asia-Pacific energy security strategy. Read →
BP reviewed Devon Eagle Ford shale assets but walked away from potential deal
Reuters / BOE Report · Thu, Sep 25, 2026
BP entered the data room for Devon Energy's 90,000-net-acre Eagle Ford position in South Texas, which produced 77,000 boepd in Q2, but ultimately declined to pursue a deal valued around $3.5 to 4.5 billion. The review followed Devon's post-Coterra merger portfolio optimization and aligns with BP's renewed focus on US shale growth under CEO Meg O'Neill. BP already operates 205,000 boepd in the Eagle Ford via BPX Energy. Read →
Shell closes $840M Na Kika/Coulomb divestment to Talos and Ridgewood
Shell / Rigzone / Hart Energy · Mon, Sep 22, 2026
Shell Offshore completed the sale of its 50% non-operated interest in the bp-operated Na Kika platform and fields plus 100% of the Coulomb tieback in the US Gulf of America for $840 million in cash proceeds. The divestment forms part of ongoing portfolio high-grading, releasing capital from mature assets while Shell advances other deepwater and LNG positions. Talos Energy and Ridgewood Energy affiliate acquired the interests. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law, authorizing up to 500% tariffs on Russian goods and 100% on top energy buyers.
Trump suspends Moroccan phosphate duties for eight months
Tyne Morgan · AgWeb · Mon, Jun 29, 2026
President Trump declared a national emergency on fertilizer supplies and signed a proclamation suspending anti-dumping and countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco for up to eight months. The move follows years of farmer lobbying and aims to increase supply and lower costs for U.S. agriculture. USDA estimates the action could cut phosphate prices by about 22% and save farmers $1.82 billion annually. Read →
FERC sunsets 53 outdated energy regulations
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission · Fri, Sep 25, 2026
FERC voted to insert conditional sunset provisions into 53 outdated or unnecessary regulations, with a one-year sunset date after the rule's effective date. The action responds to President Trump's Executive Order on Zero-Based Regulatory Budgeting to Unleash American Energy. A companion NOPR allows for public comment on significant adverse effects before final sunset. Read →
Trump signs Russia sanctions and tariff bill into law
Ismail Shakil and Daphne Psaledakis · Reuters · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
President Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law. The legislation authorizes up to 500% tariffs on Russian goods including oil and natural gas, up to 100% secondary tariffs on top importers of Russian energy, and new sanctions targeting Russia's energy, defense and financial sectors. It also extends the Iran Sanctions Act through 2031. Read →
White House denies diesel export ban plan
Timothy Gardner · Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
A White House official denied a Politico report that the administration was preparing a 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports amid record prices above $6.50 per gallon. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a flat ban would not work and could raise gasoline and jet fuel prices instead. Discussions focus on voluntary measures to increase domestic diesel supply while maintaining other fuel flows. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil rebounds as US-Iran talks stall and Hormuz risks rise
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 28
Traders on X note Brent and WTI climbing with stalled US-Iran negotiations and elevated shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz keeping supply concerns alive. Momentum building above recent lows could target higher levels if tensions persist, with #OOTT accounts highlighting the geopolitical premium. Read →
Libya Sharara field output exceeds 300kbpd
X / @staunovo · Mon, Sep 28
Commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo reports Libya's NOC chairman confirming Sharara field production above 300,000 barrels per day. This supply addition comes amid broader Middle East tensions, potentially easing some tightness in North African crude flows tracked by #OOTT traders. Read →
TotalEnergies sets 2 to 3% annual oil-gas output growth
X / @staunovo · Mon, Sep 28
TotalEnergies details plans for 2 to 3% yearly growth in its oil and gas segment through 2035. #OOTT followers see this as a signal of continued upstream investment despite energy transition pressures, with implications for long-term supply forecasts. Read →
Gold tests support as real yields hit 18-year high
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 28
Ole S Hansen and other traders highlight gold's sharp drop over 3% as US 10-year real yields surge to 18-year highs near 2.85% and the dollar strengthens. ETF buying holds but liquidity concerns arise if credit stress forces selling; longer-term fiscal risks remain supportive. Read →
Diesel export ban talk shifts USGC crude dynamics
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 28
Sparta Commodities analysis warns a diesel export ban would force US refiners to lighten their crude slate and export VGO or fuel oil. Medium grades have weakened vs WTI, with spot margins favoring overseas hydrocracker feed; #OOTT traders debate the margin and slate impacts. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
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JPM's Kaneva on US diesel ban limits
Natasha Kaneva on J.P. Morgan 'At Any Rate' podcast · Fri, Sep 25
A 30-day US diesel export ban may work initially, but effects fade after Day 31. Watch/Listen →
BNN Bloomberg daily commodities updates
BNN Bloomberg (YouTube) · Sep 22 to 25
Institutional-grade daily segments on diesel prices, oil above $100, mining deals and energy transition risks from credible Canadian business channel. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
21%
+1pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
53%
-1pp w/w
Saudi East-West oil pipeline restarts by October 15
45%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by October 31
12%
-8pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
18%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
64%
+10pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
8%
unch
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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