Morgan Downey's Commodity News
Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week's moves
Week ending Sep 26, 2026
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Downey's Take on the Past Week
Brent $104.32, down $6.43 (-6.2%) on the week and WTI Crude $92.41, down $7.89 (-7.9%) /week on a busy diplomatic week with Iran in New York. Crude would have been down more on the week but rallied $2 late Friday into Saturday following an 8:36pm NY time Friday WSJ story stating Trump rejected Iran’s 7-day Hormuz/ceasefire plan and told aides bombing is likely after the midterms. Saudi EW pipe repairs still not complete. See live weekend physical oil prices at prismprice.com
Nat Gas up $0.313 (+10.7%) on cooler weather forecasts boosting heating demand.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $7.45 (-9.4%) on ample LNG arrivals and mild weather.
Cotton up $5.11 (+6.6%) on US crop damage reports from heavy rains.
JKM down $1.69 (-6.2%) on rising spot LNG supply from the US and Qatar.
Coffee down $16.4 (-5.6%) on favorable Brazilian weather improving harvest outlook.
Kicker: Saxo recommends long copper on supply tightness and strong demand despite macro pressure (Saxo Bank, Sep 25).
Nat Gas up $0.313 (+10.7%) on cooler weather forecasts boosting heating demand.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $7.45 (-9.4%) on ample LNG arrivals and mild weather.
Cotton up $5.11 (+6.6%) on US crop damage reports from heavy rains.
JKM down $1.69 (-6.2%) on rising spot LNG supply from the US and Qatar.
Coffee down $16.4 (-5.6%) on favorable Brazilian weather improving harvest outlook.
Kicker: Saxo recommends long copper on supply tightness and strong demand despite macro pressure (Saxo Bank, Sep 25).
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The Zeitgeist
What the commodity market couldn't stop talking about this week · and the trade it implies.
Hormuz tanker flows hit 33.7 million barrels this week as US-Iran talks explored reopening the strait amid ongoing attacks.
The angle · Front-month Brent over WTI; the Brent-WTI premium should widen while Gulf exports remain light of pre-war levels.
China copper stocks fell to three-year lows in Shanghai as fabricators restocked ahead of holidays and smelter maintenance tightened spot supply.
The angle · LME cash over three-month; the backwardation should steepen on physical tightness in China versus COMEX builds.
European gas storage sits at 70% full, well below seasonal norms, as Hormuz LNG disruptions limit injections before winter.
The angle · TTF winter-summer spread; the curve should steepen backwardation while Atlantic LNG competes with Asia for cargoes.
Black Sea grain exports plunged to roughly half last year’s July-September pace with Russian shipments near 1 million tonnes this month.
The angle · Matif over Chicago wheat; the European premium should hold while buyers pivot to higher-cost non-Black Sea origins.
The angle is market-structure color, not advice.
Weekend price action
NYMEX is closed for the weekend. These are live oil and natural gas prices from Hyperliquid's 24/7 commodity markets since Friday's settlement.
|
WTI Crude · weekend
$94.68
+2.27 +2.46%
vs Fri close $92.41
|
Nat Gas · weekend
$3.20
+0.00 +0.11%
vs Fri close $3.20
|
This week's biggest movers
Weekly changes based on settlements Friday, September 25, 2026
| Market | Last | Weekly | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nat Gas | 3.196 | +10.7% +0.313 |
-12.5% | -1.3% | -43.5% |
| Cocoa | 5,603 | +5.2% +276 |
-7.6% | -19.9% | +120% |
| Copper | 14,916 | +2.3% +333 |
+20.2% | +39.8% | +57.6% |
| Soybeans | 1,319 | +1.2% +16 |
+28.0% | +30.5% | +2.4% |
| Corn | 528 | +0.1% +1 |
+20.0% | +25.3% | -2.1% |
| Gold | 4,321 | -2.3% -104 |
-0.5% | +12.1% | +147% |
| Silver | 64.80 | -2.6% -1.75 |
-7.6% | +39.0% | +186% |
| Brent | 104.32 | -6.2% -6.43 |
+60.1% | +43.4% | +22.5% |
| WTI Crude | 92.41 | -7.9% -7.89 |
+60.9% | +45.6% | +22.5% |
| Dutch TTF | 72.07 | -9.4% -7.45 |
+156% | +125% | -5.8% |
The Week Ahead
Scheduled events next week that could move commodities.
Wed Sep 30 |
China NBS September PMIs 9:30am BJT
Manufacturing and services readings gauge demand in top consumer of oil, metals and ag products. Oil · Metals · Agriculture |
Fri Oct 2 |
US September Employment Situation 8:30am ET
Payrolls and unemployment data shape rate expectations, dollar strength and commodity demand outlook. Oil · Gold |
Sun Oct 4 |
Review of output policy for November could set supply signals for crude and LNG prices. Oil · Natural Gas |
Sponsored · Vortexa
The Vortexa Innovation Series: Four Cities, One Global Conversation
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Free to attend, but seats are limited and filling fast across all four cities!
Commodity Research
The week's most interesting commodity research.
Goldman switches call to gasoline upside · Goldman · Sep 17
Refiners shifting output to diesel tightens gasoline markets faster, offering more price upside through mid-2027.
Diesel refinery outages 60% above seasonal average
Gasoline yield shifts create supply squeeze
Refined products tightness exceeds crude market
BofA lifts H2 Brent to $95 on Hormuz risks · BofA · Sep 22
Ongoing skirmishes and infrastructure damage make rapid normalization unlikely, pushing year-end Brent higher with $150+ tail risk into 2027.
Hormuz flows 4 to 8 mb/d shortfall persists
Inventories commercial and strategic draws continue
Diesel record prices above $6/gallon amplify pressure
IEA cuts 2026 demand and supply sharply · IEA · Sep 26
World oil demand falls 2.5 mb/d in 2026 as Hormuz impasse delays recovery; supply drops 5.7 mb/d with rebound pushed to 2027.
Demand 2.5 mb/d contraction steeper than prior view
Supply Gulf recovery deferred to 2027
Inventories key buffer amid steep losses
Goldman flags gasoline risk from diesel ban · Goldman · Sep 23
Export ban would fill storage, cut refinery output and constrain gasoline availability while initially pressuring diesel prices lower.
Diesel exports US net 1.35 mb/d at risk
Refining lower diesel prices reduce runs
Gasoline supply shrinks from yield shifts
JPM trims H2 Brent exit to $78 · JPMorgan · Jun 24
Lower-than-expected OECD draws and larger demand losses reduce upward price pressure through year-end and into 2027.
Inventories OECD commercial draws disappoint
Demand losses exceed prior assumptions
Prices H2 well above forwards but revised lower
Goldman sees oil down, gold at $4,900 · Goldman · Sep 26
Brent/WTI average $56/52 in 2026 on supply wave and rebalancing needs; copper preferred industrial metal at $11,400/t average.
Oil surplus pressures prices lower post-2026
Gold upside from diversification, $4,900 target
Copper tariff uncertainty caps near-term gains
MS sees commodity cycle intact · Morgan Stanley · Sep 25
Constrained supply, resilient demand and long lead times keep the cycle fundamentally supported despite volatility.
Energy Hormuz shocks drive differentiation
Base metals structural opportunities remain
Leadership rotates across sectors on geopolitics
BofA warns on record diesel at $6+/gal · BofA · Sep 25
War damage, strikes and sourcing issues idle 8% of refining capacity, pushing diesel to all-time highs with limited market panic.
Refining 8% capacity offline globally
Diesel prices hit records above $6/gallon
Economy real-sector costs rising fastest
Commodity Podcasts
Commodity sounds for your commute, run, walk or background.
The Four Horsemen of the Dieselpocalypse with Doomberg · HC Commodities · Sep 22
US diesel export ban would briefly cut local pump prices but strand 7 million seaborne barrels and deepen global shortages
India pulling supply from export market
Refineries already at peak utilization face outages
Middle East escalation risks further refinery hits
Asia eyes energy supply flexibility, shipping alternatives · Platts Oil Markets · Sep 24
APPEC takeaways show Asian buyers accelerating diversification away from Hormuz-dependent flows and building strategic stocks
Freight exposure and compliance now key pricing factors
Trusted benchmarks gain importance amid volatility
Domestic production investment case strengthens
Why Diesel Prices Are Exploding and Who's Getting Rich · Sankey Research · Sep 21
US refining capacity tightness keeps crack spreads elevated and diesel prices near all-time highs into winter
Hormuz disruption and export ban risks compound squeeze
Saudi and Russia-Ukraine flows add to product tightness
Inflationary feedback loop into broader economy
Paul Sankey: Diesel prices at the pump are still very close to their all time high · CNBC (Morning Call segment) · Sep 23
Potential US diesel export restrictions could lower domestic pump prices but risk broader market disruption
Refining constraints remain the binding limit
Hormuz and geopolitical risks keep premium elevated
Market stays very elevated through 2027
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle · MacroVoices · Sep 24
Looming global diesel shortage could split the one-world oil market into US-led regional blocs with export bans and stablecoin tools
Iran threats extend to Indian Ocean shipping
Washington rallies allies vs China-Russia-Iran axis
2027 Taiwan and tactical nuclear fears reshape flows
MacroVoices #550 Harley Bassman: In FED We Trust · MacroVoices · Sep 17
Fiscal recklessness and AI-driven hyperscaler debt are driving higher term premiums and reshaping fixed-income markets
Fed credibility crisis accelerates convexity effects
ETFs amplify mortgage and bond market moves
Energy and commodity links to inflation remain tight
Commodity Intelligence
Split 2-1 positive on oil.
The same questions to three frontier AIs, every week. Unedited verdicts · opinion, for discussion, not advice.
Where the panel stands
Oil 2 of 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up 6th straight week |
|
Copper 2 of 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up 6th straight week |
|
US Nat Gas 2 of 3 AIs |
▼ Down Down 6th straight week |
|
Gold all 3 AIs |
▲ Up Up unanimous 6 weeks |
Line: the price at each weekend issue since Jun 13. Dots: what most of the three AIs called that week, green Up, red Down.
Why they disagree on oil
Is the next $20 move in oil up or down?
Grok · xAI
▲ Up Tight Gulf supply + inventory draws keep prices supported.
Gemini · Google
▲ Up Geopolitical tensions, disciplined OPEC+ cuts, and steady global demand underpin a tightening market, pushing prices higher despite economic headwinds.
Claude · Anthropic
▼ Down Demand fears from tariff-driven slowdown outweigh OPEC cuts; macro headwinds crack the floor first.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated from public sources; every item links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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