The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA · Podcast · Kickers · Archive
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
▶ The 2-minute market brief · video · 1.25x
Listen · the 2‑minute market briefToday's markets in two minutes. Tap to play
Prefer audio only? Listen here.
Markets at a glance
Last price as of Tue, Sep 22, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent $99.73, down $0.61 (-0.6%) and WTI (Nov26) around $91, down $1 (-1%). Crude had been slightly higher this morning until a story broken (in Japanese) by Japan’s Kyodo News from Tehran at 2:28am NY time reported Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States lifted its blockade of Iranian ports. The oil market oil only started to fall following an English language translation at 4:13am NY time.
The offer was attributed to a senior Iranian official and said to have been passed to Washington via intermediaries ahead of UN General Assembly diplomacy in New York. Conditions also include a path back to talks aimed at ending hostilities. It follows earlier Iranian statements that the strait would stay restricted until US demands (end the war, unfreeze assets, lift the blockade) were met.
The Kyodo report is unconfirmed at official level and fighting/Houthi activity continues. E/W pipe repairs ongoing with 4 to 5 week eta. Watch for oil to weaken on flow resumption headline.
Check out the special offer from Vortexa for great physical oil flows insight at the following link.
https://tinyurl.com/4fyunrxr
Cocoa down $161 (-3.0%) on comfortable near-term supplies and rising ICE inventories to a two-year high.
Dutch TTF down $2.05 (-2.8%) on easing geopolitical tensions and rising oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sugar down $0.35 (-1.9%) on lower oil prices reducing ethanol competitiveness and profit-taking.
Palladium down $17 (-1.3%) on Fed rate hike raising opportunity costs for non-yielding assets.
Cotton down $0.95 (-1.1%) on weak export demand, advancing US harvest and stronger dollar.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long TTF winter 2026/27 calls targeting 105 EUR/MWh on slower Hormuz LNG normalization risks.
The offer was attributed to a senior Iranian official and said to have been passed to Washington via intermediaries ahead of UN General Assembly diplomacy in New York. Conditions also include a path back to talks aimed at ending hostilities. It follows earlier Iranian statements that the strait would stay restricted until US demands (end the war, unfreeze assets, lift the blockade) were met.
The Kyodo report is unconfirmed at official level and fighting/Houthi activity continues. E/W pipe repairs ongoing with 4 to 5 week eta. Watch for oil to weaken on flow resumption headline.
Check out the special offer from Vortexa for great physical oil flows insight at the following link.
https://tinyurl.com/4fyunrxr
Cocoa down $161 (-3.0%) on comfortable near-term supplies and rising ICE inventories to a two-year high.
Dutch TTF down $2.05 (-2.8%) on easing geopolitical tensions and rising oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sugar down $0.35 (-1.9%) on lower oil prices reducing ethanol competitiveness and profit-taking.
Palladium down $17 (-1.3%) on Fed rate hike raising opportunity costs for non-yielding assets.
Cotton down $0.95 (-1.1%) on weak export demand, advancing US harvest and stronger dollar.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long TTF winter 2026/27 calls targeting 105 EUR/MWh on slower Hormuz LNG normalization risks.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil falls on Iran diplomacy hopes, lifts tech stocks
George Steer, Ian Smith · Financial Times · Mon, Sep 21
Brent crude fell as much as 4% to $99.02 a barrel on speculation of diplomatic progress at the UN General Assembly and hopes for a Trump meeting with Iran's president. Oil's drop eased inflationary pressure and helped Nasdaq hit a record close. Read →
Oil steadies after drop as Hormuz flows rise, diplomacy eyed
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 21, 6:04 PM ET
WTI held above $95 a barrel and Brent near $100 after a four-day slump exceeding 9%. Satellite data showed Saudi loadings from the Persian Gulf jumping over the weekend, signaling a shift back to Hormuz exports amid easing supply concerns. Read →
Oil rises slightly ahead of potential US-Iran talks
Reuters · Tue, Sep 22
Brent rose 1.1% to $101.48 a barrel and WTI gained 0.9% as traders awaited US-Iran developments at the UNGA. Saudi oil exports via Hormuz reached a six-month high over the weekend, though prices remain headline-sensitive. Read →
Macron urges EU to ease rules, boost diesel and jet fuel output
Ian Johnston, Sarah White · Financial Times · Mon, Sep 21, 5 hours ago
President Macron wrote to the European Commission calling for immediate steps to tame energy prices, including delaying methane rules and temporarily easing refinery technical rules to boost diesel and jet fuel output by up to 20%. Read →
Trump tells Zelenskyy to halt Russian refinery strikes over diesel
Christopher Miller, Max Seddon · Financial Times · Mon, Sep 21, 16 hours ago
Trump urged Ukraine's leader in a Sunday call to cease strikes on Russian refineries, emphasizing concerns over a global diesel shortage pushing US prices to records above $6.50 a gallon amid the Iran and Ukraine wars. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 2US Natural Gas 4Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 1Global Nat Gas & LNG 4Power 3Coal 2Agriculture 3Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 2Shipping & Freight 2Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 2Regulation & Government 4Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 1Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Oil rebounds on short-covering ahead of potential US-Iran UN talks as Saudi Hormuz flows hit six-month high.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 91.32 | -1.1% -1.05 |
+58.9% | +43.9% | +26.3% |
| Brent | 99.73 | -0.6% -0.61 |
+63.9% | +47.5% | +30.9% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.448 | -0.6% -0.022 |
+86.5% | +59.1% | +49.8% |
| Heating Oil | 4.805 | -1.7% -0.085 |
+119.0% | +99.5% | +110.0% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
53.49 | +0.2% +0.12 |
+165.2% +33.32 |
+94.2% +25.95 |
+119.3% +29.09 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
110.49 | -2.2% -2.50 |
+218.8% +75.83 |
+193.2% +72.81 |
+364.4% +86.70 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
72.49 | -1.0% -0.75 |
+190.0% +47.49 |
+134.4% +41.57 |
+199.6% +48.29 |
Oil rebounds on US-Iran diplomacy watch
Irina Slav · OilPrice.com · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Crude prices reversed recent losses Tuesday with Brent near $101.69 and WTI at $93.38. The move reflected short-covering ahead of UNGA diplomatic developments rather than a shift in fundamentals. Speculative longs on Brent reached the highest level since May. Read →
Brent hits 12-day low at $99.51 on supply relief
Reuters via Dawn.com · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Brent November futures fell as low as $99.51 per barrel Monday on easing supply concerns. WTI October dropped over 5% to $95. Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure prompted Aramco to reroute more crude through Hormuz, with satellite data showing 2.9 million bpd average flows. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Cove Point LNG maintenance outage cuts 0.85 Bcf/d Appalachia feedgas demand, pressuring regional prices to 2-year lows.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 2.840 | +0.1% +0.004 |
-18.6% | +5.2% | -37.5% |
Cove Point outage slams Appalachia gas prices to 2-year lows.
Chris Newman · Natural Gas Intelligence · Sun, Sep 21, 2026
Cove Point LNG in Maryland entered annual maintenance Saturday, removing roughly 0.85 Bcf/d of feedgas demand from Appalachia. Six regional hubs traded at their lowest levels since November 2024 amid the outage and mild weekend weather. Producers trimmed output as Tetco M-2 spot fell below $1.50/MMBtu. Read →
Eastern cooldown slashes late-season gas demand amid Appalachia storms.
Jacob Dick · Natural Gas Intelligence · Sun, Sep 21, 2026
A sharp cooldown across the eastern US is cutting natural gas demand for power generation as storms threaten Appalachia. Heat persists across Texas and the Gulf Coast. The weather shift coincides with the Cove Point maintenance reducing regional LNG pull. Read →
Easing heat still tightens storage as EIA sees smaller build.
Patrick Rau · Natural Gas Intelligence · Sun, Sep 21, 2026
NGI projects the EIA report for the week ended Sept. 21 will show a 56 Bcf injection, below the 76 Bcf five-year average. Production held flat near 112 Bcf/d while power deliveries slipped 0.3 Bcf/d to 44.0 Bcf/d. The smaller build widens the year-over-year storage deficit ahead of winter. Read →
Natgas holds near $3 as LNG demand counters high supply.
Anton Kharitonov · Traders Union · Sun, Sep 21, 2026
Henry Hub traded around $2.97/MMBtu on Sept. 21 after recovering from August lows. The latest EIA storage report showed a below-consensus 44 Bcf build for the prior week. Cove Point maintenance is expected to trim feedgas demand by around 0.9 Bcf/d for three weeks. Read →
Sponsored · Vortexa
The Vortexa Innovation Series: Four Cities, One Global Conversation
Vortexa's Innovation Series returns this fall to four cities: Dubai (Sept 30), New York (Oct 6), Houston (Oct 8), and London (Oct 14). Each stop brings Vortexa's analyst team together with the traders, shippers and financiers navigating today's most volatile energy markets, for an exclusive briefing on what's moving crude, products, freight and LNG, powered by real-time data. You'll also get a first look at how AI is reshaping trading workflows, turning natural-language questions into market-ready insight. With Hormuz and the Red Sea reshaping flows in real time, these are must-attend sessions for anyone tracking waterborne energy.
Free to attend, but seats are limited and filling fast across all four cities!
Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Propane 84.6¢/gal (+2.3%) and ethane 25.0¢/gal (+0.7%) at Mont Belvieu; C3 frac spread 59¢/gal (+2¢), pentane at 94% of WTI.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.250 | +0.7% +0.002 |
+5.5% | +0.1% | -34.1% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
0.846 | +2.3% +0.019 |
+37.2% | +19.3% | -33.6% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.264 | +1.7% +0.021 |
+69.6% | +41.6% | -13.6% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.454 | +2.4% +0.033 |
+87.0% | +57.7% | +1.1% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.049 | +2.4% +0.047 |
+74.8% | +57.3% | +21.7% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 6 | unch | +6 | -1 | -2 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 59 | +2 | +29 | +12 | -27 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -648 | +9 | -343 | -280 | -267 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -400 | +17 | -234 | -209 | -390 |
| C5 as % WTI | 94 | +3 | +9 | +8 | -4 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Conway propane stays discounted to Mont Belvieu on exports, weak Midwest demand.
OPIS · Sun, Sep 21, 2026
OPIS data shows Mont Belvieu non-TET propane averaging 80.83¢/gal month-to-date vs. 73.52¢/gal at Conway as of Sep 18, widening the north-south spread. Strong US Gulf Coast exports and subdued Midwest heating demand keep Conway subdued. Forward curves project the discount narrowing only modestly into winter. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls 7%+ overnight to €73.7/MWh on warmer weather forecasts and lower storage injection pace; JKM slips 5.5% to $25.99/MMBtu.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
71.20 | -2.8% -2.05 |
+152.8% | +120.7% | -0.7% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
23.91 | -2.8% -0.69 |
+152.8% | +120.7% | -0.7% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
25.99 | – | +170.6% | +128.9% | -3.7% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sun, Sep 20
EU gas storage is 69.9% full, 791 TWh in store, 15.7 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.7 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 56.8%.
EU full 69.9% +0.32 pts d/d | Year ago 81.6% | 5-yr avg 85.6% same date |
Germany 56.8% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF drops 7.4% to €73.65/MWh on Amsterdam market
notizie.it / ANSA · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Dutch TTF front-month futures fell sharply 7.4% to €73.65/MWh amid new diplomatic developments and higher oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed a prior session close near €79 to 80/MWh and reflects easing immediate supply concerns alongside ongoing storage dynamics. Lower prices reduce the incentive for aggressive European storage injections at current levels. Read →
TTF futures trade near €73.7 to 74.4/MWh with intraday gains after sharp prior drop
Investing.com · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
ICE Dutch TTF October futures opened around €73.7/MWh and traded in a €73.2 to 75.2 range, recovering modestly after Monday's steep decline. EU storage sits near 69.9% full, well below the seasonal norm of 88%, with net injections slowing. Warmer temperature forecasts and softer near-term demand are cited as supporting the downside move in benchmarks. Read →
JKM falls 5.53% to $25.99/MMBtu on latest assessment
TankerMap / OilPriceAPI · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) LNG spot benchmark dropped 5.53% to $25.99/MMBtu for the latest session. The decline tracks softer Asian spot demand and a narrowing but still positive JKM-TTF arb spread of roughly $4.40/MMBtu. Reduced competition for cargoes from Europe amid the TTF pullback contributes to the move. Read →
TTF at €73.66/MWh as EU storage lags seasonal norm by 18 points
EnergyRiskIQ · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
European TTF settled near €73.66/MWh, down sharply day-over-day, with storage at 69.9% of capacity versus an 88% seasonal average. Slower injection pace and milder weather outlooks weigh on prices despite the structural storage deficit. The data underscore limited near-term upward pressure on the benchmark from storage refill dynamics. Read →
Power
What's moving · Texas Gov. Abbott halts all data-center permits pending ERCOT grid/water audit amid 474 GW queue.
Abbott halts Texas data-center permits until ERCOT audit ends
Liz Hampton and Laila Kearney · Reuters · Mon, Sep 21, 2026, 8:53 PM ET
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to stop issuing permits for data centers until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas completes its audit of grid reliability, power use, tax incentives and water consumption. ERCOT faces more than 470 GW of data-center and large-load interconnection requests, over five times the state's peak demand, with 90% from data centers. The move tightens scrutiny on new load in the ERCOT market, where developers must now prove projects protect the grid and water resources before advancing. Read →
Abbott widens Texas data-center permit moratorium
Mike Lee · POLITICO · Mon, Sep 21, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Gov. Greg Abbott ordered environmental regulators to halt approvals for data-center projects while ERCOT audits interconnection requests and water use. The directive extends beyond grid connections to air and water permits and signals that projects must cover infrastructure costs and meet audit requirements. It affects the massive queue of proposed data centers seeking to connect to Texas power. Read →
Abbott directs TCEQ to pause data-center permits
Office of the Texas Governor · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Gov. Abbott instructed TCEQ to halt permits sought by data centers until ERCOT finishes its audit of grid and water impacts. The order requires data centers to pay their own way, protect resources and complete audits before approvals proceed. It follows earlier directives for PUCT, ERCOT and the Texas Water Development Board reviews of the interconnection queue. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal holds near $144/t as Middle East LNG disruptions sustain gas-to-coal switching and record 2026 demand.
China's Aug coking coal imports drop 4% MoM to 13.07 Mt
Mysteel · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
China's coking coal imports fell 4% month-on-month in August to 13.07 million tonnes, the second-highest monthly total on record and up 28.7% year-on-year. The decline follows a July peak amid mounting market uncertainty. Reduced seaborne metallurgical inflows tighten supply for steelmakers while domestic safety curbs and Mongolian rail flows reshape trade patterns. Read →
Coal holds near 3-month high at $145/t
Trading Economics · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Newcastle thermal coal traded around $144 to 145 per tonne on September 21, near a three-month high. The IEA attributes the level to Middle East conflict-driven natural gas price spikes that favor coal switching for power generation. China also raised coal use in chemicals amid high oil prices, supporting the complex despite easing seaborne thermal demand forecasts. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · China demand hopes and wet Midwest weather lift corn, soy, wheat futures Monday.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 540 | -0.6% -3 |
+22.6% | +26.6% | +2.7% |
| Wheat | 720 | -0.9% -7 |
+42.1% | +38.4% | +2.1% |
| Soybeans | 1,322 | -0.5% -6 |
+28.3% | +30.6% | +3.1% |
| Sugar | 18.04 | -1.9% -0.35 |
+20.2% | +15.2% | -6.7% |
| Coffee | 275.3 | -0.4% -1.1 |
-21.1% | -21.4% | +48.9% |
| Cocoa | 5,190 | -3.0% -161 |
-14.4% | -25.8% | +95.7% |
| Cotton | 82.47 | -1.1% -0.95 |
+29.0% | +28.5% | -9.7% |
Grains rise on Trump-Xi summit hopes and strong exports
Anthony Harrup · Dow Jones / Morningstar · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
December corn rose 2.9% to $5.43/bushel, November soybeans 1.9% to $13.28, December wheat 1.8% to $7.2675 on Chicago Board of Trade Monday. Strong USDA export inspections (corn 1.94 MMT, soybeans 759k MT) and weekend rains slowing harvest added support alongside hopes for Chinese purchases at the Trump-Xi summit. Mexico led wheat buys, Japan corn, China soybeans. Read →
USDA: Corn 13% harvested, soybeans 12%
Mariah Squire · Successful Farming / Agriculture.com · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
As of Sept. 20, USDA reported 13% of US corn harvested (ahead of 11% five-year average) and 12% of soybeans (ahead of 8% average) across top states. Corn conditions held at 57% good/excellent; soybeans 58%. Winter wheat planting lagged at 17% vs. 21% average. Read →
USDA: Corn, soybean export inspections rise
Anthony Harrup · Dow Jones · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
USDA reported corn export inspections for week ended Sept. 17 at 1.94 million metric tons, up from 1.55M prior week and 1.39M year-ago. Soybean inspections reached 759,193 MT vs. 680k prior and 566k last year. Wheat fell to 335k MT; China was top soybean buyer. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper surges on China pre-holiday stockpiling and LME stock draw as backwardation widens.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
15,077 | +1.1% +169 |
+21.5% | +49.2% | +60.8% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,688 | +1.1% +153 |
+15.7% | +48.4% | +54.0% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,199 | -0.4% -12 |
+7.5% | +24.7% | +10.3% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,519 | -0.3% -11 |
+17.2% | +28.0% | +15.3% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,405 | +0.5% +75 |
-3.1% | +7.9% | -20.1% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,170 | +0.1% +3 |
-1.5% | +4.1% | +6.4% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
54,285 | +0.5% +287 |
+29.2% | +60.0% | +58.8% |
Copper rises on China demand expectations and LME tightness
Reuters · Tue, Sep 22, 5:15 AM ET
Benchmark three-month copper on the LME rose 1.4% to $14,725 per tonne, touching $14,762.50, its highest since September 10. Available LME copper stocks fell to 133,725 tonnes after 9,600 tonnes of cancellations in Asia, shifting the cash contract to a $47 per tonne premium over the three-month contract. Yangshan copper premium eased to $119 per tonne while traders position ahead of China holidays and a potential Trump-Xi meeting. Read →
Capstone sells Cozamin mine to Luca for up to $385 million
Mining Technology · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Capstone Copper agreed to sell its Cozamin copper-silver-zinc-lead underground mine in Zacatecas, Mexico, to Luca Mining for up to $385 million including $275 million cash upfront, $15 million in shares, $35 million deferred and up to $60 million in copper-price-linked contingent payments. The deal is expected to close in Q4 2026 subject to approvals and allows Capstone to redeploy capital into growth projects in Chile and the US. Cozamin is forecast to average 20,000 tonnes of copper and 1.3 million ounces of silver annually through 2030. Read →
Dollar weakens, metals broadly rise; SHFE copper and coking coal up over 1%, lithium carbonate and polysilicon up over 2%
SMM · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
SMM midday comment noted broad gains in base metals and new-energy materials as the dollar weakened. SHFE copper and coking coal each rose more than 1% while lithium carbonate and polysilicon advanced over 2%. The move aligns with firmer physical signals including pre-holiday buying in China. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel output rose 2% early Sep while iron ore futures held near $97/t SGX and 715 yuan/t DCE amid building port stocks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
93.5 | -1.0% -1.0 |
-7.1% | -2.2% | -12.2% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
405 | +0.2% +1 |
+2.7% | +4.4% | -43.9% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
436 | -0.1% -1 |
+5.8% | +6.2% | -42.4% |
Iron ore holds as China steel output climbs 2%
Rio Times Online · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
SGX October iron ore futures settled near US$97.05/t (up US$0.05) and DCE main contract near 715 yuan/t (down 0.07%) on Sep 21. CISA data showed large Chinese mills’ average daily crude steel output at 1.924 Mt in early September, up 2.0% from late August, with mill finished-steel stocks also rising 1.7%. The modest output increase supports iron ore demand but weak downstream conditions and CISA calls for production controls limit price upside. Read →
China 47-port iron ore stocks rise to 171.36 Mt
Mysteel · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
As of Sep 18, imported iron ore inventories at China’s 47 major ports reached 171.36 Mt, up 1.13 Mt or 0.7% week-on-week per Mysteel survey. Australian ore stocks rose to 85.25 Mt and Brazilian to 52.80 Mt, with daily discharge averaging 3.51 Mt. The rebound reverses prior destocking and adds supply pressure despite steel mills building holiday buffers ahead of Golden Week. Read →
CISA mills lift early-Sep crude steel output 2%
SteelOrbis · Thu, Sep 17, 2026
CISA reported large/medium Chinese steel enterprises averaged 1.924 Mt daily crude steel output Sep 1 to 10, up 2.0% from late August, with finished-steel inventories at member mills rising 1.7% to 16.52 Mt by Sep 10. The uptick ends a brief contraction but occurs amid oversupply signals and CISA urging mills to curb output and inventories. It highlights resilient blast-furnace production despite thin mill margins. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold ticks up on easing Treasury yields amid higher-for-longer Fed rate outlook.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,353 | -0.7% -31 |
+0.3% | +14.1% | +144.7% |
| Silver | 65.71 | -1.1% -0.71 |
-6.3% | +48.7% | +187.4% |
| Platinum | 1,786 | -0.8% -15 |
-12.2% | +18.7% | +78.4% |
| Palladium | 1,300 | -1.3% -17 |
-20.2% | +5.5% | -36.2% |
Gold, silver rise in Asia on softer oil, rate outlook weighs.
Anshul · CNBC TV18 · Tue, Sep 22, 2026, 7:59 AM IST
COMEX gold rose 0.17% to $4,391.30/oz and silver gained 0.58% to $66.80/oz in early Asian trade on Sep 22. Softer oil prices and hopes of US-Iran talks supported prices, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem's hawkish comments on further rate hikes capped gains. Investors await more Fed signals on policy. Read →
Artemis Gold buys Vista Gold for $427M in all-share deal.
Business Wire · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Artemis Gold (TSXV:ARTG) will acquire Vista Gold (TSX:VGZ) in a $427 million all-share transaction, adding the Mt Todd gold project in Australia's Northern Territory. The deal values Vista at a 29% premium and gives Artemis a pathway to over 1 million oz annual production alongside its Blackwater mine. Closing is expected in January 2027 after approvals. Read →
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium all edge higher Tuesday.
Fahad Shabbir · UrduPoint / WAM · Tue, Sep 22, 2026, 7:00 AM
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,357.31/oz, silver 0.7% to $66.48/oz, platinum 0.8% to $1,811.28/oz and palladium 0.7% to $1,309.78/oz on Tuesday. Lower US Treasury yields provided support even as higher-for-longer rate expectations limited broader gains across the complex. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China rare-earth export curbs and state consolidation loom over Trump-Xi talks and EU dialogue.
Rare earth curbs unresolved ahead of Trump-Xi summit
Keith Bradsher · The New York Times · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
China’s April 2025 export controls on seven rare earths and magnets plus planned Nov. 10 expansions remain in force, constraining supplies to U.S., European, Japanese and Indian manufacturers of cars, wind turbines, semiconductors and military gear. Existing curbs, the November deadline and slashed shipments to Japan are expected to dominate this week’s Trump-Xi meeting with no clear resolution in sight. China dominates global production of these materials essential for permanent magnets and high-tech supply chains. Read →
EU-China forum addresses rare earth export controls
The Brussels Times · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao launched a new Trade and Investment Consultations forum to tackle market access imbalances and export controls on rare earths and permanent magnets. Wang reassured that existing controls will not disrupt EU supply chains, while Šefčovič proposed easing licensing for European firms; the sides will meet again at ministerial level in autumn with Šefčovič visiting Beijing to assess progress. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · VLCC rates hit $1.25M/day in MEG as Hormuz attacks slash traffic and force costly shuttles.
VLCC rates hit $1.25M/day in Middle East Gulf
Gary Dixon · TradeWinds · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
BRS Shipbrokers reported VLCC spot earnings reaching scarcely believable levels of $1.25 million per day on Middle East Gulf routes amid the Hormuz blockade and shuttle operations. The surge exceeds prior 2008 supercycle peaks and stems from sharply reduced transits, with only 17 commodity vessels visible over the weekend versus a pre-war average of 125 per day. This directly elevates costs for crude oil and product movements out of the Gulf. Read →
Two more tankers hit in Strait of Hormuz
Mike Schuler · gCaptain · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
UKMTO reported an inbound tanker struck by an unknown projectile on Sep 21, injuring two crew, followed hours later by an outbound LPG tanker hit by debris; both vessels continued under their own power with no spills. These incidents bring tanker-related attacks or incidents in the strait to at least five since Sep 16, keeping the threat level severe and driving traffic to single-digit daily visible transits. The attacks sustain the supply squeeze that underpins record tanker earnings. Read →
Environment
What's moving · Irish EU presidency compromise on ETS MSR invalidation clause drives EUA prices amid energy weakness.
Irish presidency floats MSR compromise to break EU ETS impasse
Bloomberg · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Ireland, holding the EU rotating presidency, circulated a new compromise text on revising the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) rules to halt automatic invalidation of surplus allowances. The proposal adds assurances for gradual tightening of the surplus limit in broader ETS reform, aiming for ambassador agreement on Wednesday. This directly affects EUA supply dynamics and price signals in the compliance market. Read →
EUAs end modestly lower as energy prices fall and bounce fails
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
European carbon allowance prices tested resistance above a key level Monday morning but closed modestly lower after an expected afternoon bounce failed amid declining energy markets, milder weather, and Middle East diplomacy. Traders noted rangebound conditions likely to persist through autumn amid ongoing ETS reform talks. The move keeps EUAs near recent highs around €86. Read →
Mombak secures Salesforce offtake and $150M Amazon fund close
Carbon Pulse / Reuters · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Brazilian carbon removal startup Mombak announced the first close of its Amazon Reforestation Fund II targeting $150 million, plus a multiyear carbon removal offtake with Salesforce adding to buyers like Google and Microsoft. The deal follows Mombak’s first reforestation credit issuance and supports scaling of nature-based removals in the voluntary market. BNDES Climate Fund financing of R$200 million backs the expansion. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid oil perps hit $1.2B daily volume as WTI surges on Middle East supply fears.
ECB launches Pontes for tokenized asset settlement in central bank money
CoinDesk / ECB · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
The European Central Bank launched Pontes on September 21, enabling eligible institutions to settle tokenized securities transactions in central bank money via the Eurosystem’s TARGET infrastructure. Thirteen institutions including Deutsche Bank and Santander have onboarded, with the ECB itself preparing to invest a portion of its own funds in tokenized euro-area public sector securities settled through the platform. The move provides a public-money alternative to stablecoins or commercial-bank deposits for wholesale tokenized markets and forms the first step in the Eurosystem’s 2028 tokenized-finance strategy. Read →
Hana Bank issues $100M digital bond on Euroclear with T+0 settlement
The Korea Herald / CoinDesk · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
South Korea’s Hana Bank issued a $100 million five-year foreign-currency digital bond on September 18 via Euroclear’s D-FMI distributed-ledger platform, achieving T+0 settlement, the first such same-day completion for a Korean foreign-currency bond. Standard Chartered acted as sole lead manager; the bond uses existing GMTN documentation and remains interoperable with Euroclear’s traditional network. The transaction demonstrates Korean banks can plug directly into global blockchain settlement infrastructure ahead of Seoul’s February 2027 tokenized-securities framework. Read →
Ondo launches in-kind tokenized stock conversion for institutions
Crypto.news / Ondo Finance · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Ondo Finance activated in-kind minting and redemption for Ondo Stocks on September 21, allowing approved institutions to convert existing shares held at Alpaca directly into tokenized equities on Ethereum and BNB Chain without cash. The feature runs through Alpaca’s Instant Tokenization Network and complements Ondo’s cash-funded route, aiming to improve capital efficiency and secondary-market liquidity. Access is case-by-case for institutions with active accounts at both firms; Ondo Stocks now exceeds $1 billion in value locked. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil prices stabilize near $95 to 100 after four-day drop amid Iran diplomacy and Hormuz flows; M&A and project financing accelerate in energy infrastructure.
Smiths Group beats FY profit forecasts, launches asbestos liability sale process
Reuters · Tue, Sep 22, 6:15 AM ET
Smiths Group reported full-year adjusted operating profit of £399 million, above £388 million consensus. The engineering firm, serving oil and gas among other sectors, launched a process to divest its US asbestos liability to boost free cash flow and cut earnings volatility after a portfolio overhaul. Read →
McDermott completes $1.05B refinancing for project backlog
Oil & Gas 360 / World Oil · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
McDermott International completed a $1.05 billion refinancing including a $500 million equity rights offering (97% subscribed) and $550 million senior secured Nordic bonds due 2031. The move strengthens the balance sheet and extends maturities to support execution of its global oil and gas project backlog. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Russia sanctions bill signed Sept 18 hands Trump tariff power over top Russian oil/gas buyers including China, India.
Russia sanctions bill gives Trump up to 100% tariffs on top oil, gas buyers
Andrea Shalal · Reuters · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
President Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act into law on Sept 18, requiring him to impose tariffs of up to 100% within 30 days on the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or natural gas and on top facilitators of sanctions evasion. The measure also authorizes broader sanctions on Russia's energy sector and shadow fleet. China and India rank among the biggest buyers, creating direct pressure on global energy trade flows and potential supply shifts away from Russian barrels. Read →
Trump-Xi trade truce uneasy ahead of Sept 24 White House summit
Ana Swanson · The New York Times · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
U.S. and Chinese negotiators are preparing for a Sept 24 White House meeting focused on extending a one-year trade truce set to expire Nov 10, including possible reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion in goods and continued rare-earth exports. Both sides accuse the other of shortfalls on farm purchases, critical minerals shipments and compliance with forced-labor rules. The uneasy pause keeps tariffs from escalating further while energy and AI issues remain on the table. Read →
House advances Russia sanctions bill with tariff powers
The Export Practitioner · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
House Republican leaders scheduled the Senate-passed Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act for floor consideration the week of Sept 14, reviving legislation that authorizes up to 100% tariffs on top Russian oil and gas importers. The package also targets sanctions evasion networks and Russia's energy and defense sectors. Passage would expand executive tariff authority just ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Read →
Saudi boosts Hormuz oil exports amid Red Sea threats
Mohammed Ghobari · Arabian Business · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Saudi Aramco is routing 2.9 million barrels per day of crude through the Strait of Hormuz after Houthi actions disrupted the alternative Red Sea pipeline route. Limited loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu are expected to resume soon for select Asian buyers. The shift highlights ongoing geopolitical pressure on Middle East energy flows despite diplomatic efforts. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders adding WTI longs on dips to 88 to 89
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 21
A retail trader reported adding a long position in WTI futures at 91.2 overnight and plans to scale in more if prices fall to the 88 to 89 range. The post under #OOTT highlights ongoing positioning amid recent volatility in crude. Multiple replies debated risks tied to potential Iran-related developments in New York this week. Read →
newcleo hits Nasdaq as $NWCL tomorrow
X / @odeliaenergy · Mon, Sep 21
newcleo completed its SPAC combination raising $247M gross ($216M PIPE), with shares starting trading on Nasdaq as $NWCL on September 22. The nuclear fuel cycle account highlighted the deal structure. Traders and analysts in energy circles are watching the listing for uranium and advanced reactor sentiment. Read →
Pickering reactors start refurb shutdowns
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 21
Ontario's Pickering nuclear station is taking reactors offline for a major refurbishment program. The news circulated widely in energy and nuclear accounts. Discussions link it to broader supply tightness in the uranium and nuclear fuel cycle amid global reactor life-extension trends. Read →
r/oil traders debate WTI and Hormuz risk
r/oil · Mon, Sep 21
Retail oil traders in the subreddit's daily price thread discussed recent WTI action, with some exiting longs for a wait-and-see approach amid rising Hormuz tanker flows. Others expect a bounce on open after the weekend. The thread reflects crowded positioning and caution on escalation risks. Read →
$WTI short trimmed after bearish move
X / multiple traders · Mon, Sep 21
Technical traders reported scaling out two-thirds of a $WTI short position after a roughly 4% decline and bearish continuation candle. They noted the prior long-to-short flip three weeks earlier. The account stressed patience with no high-probability new setups in either direction currently. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Currie on Iran war and commodities outlook
Jeff Currie on BNN Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 17
Shortages are moving upstream as crude becomes the signal and products the noise. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
22%
+5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
7%
+2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
WHO declares new pandemic in 2026
6%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Was this forwarded to you? Subscribe free →
Hedge smarter, not harder.
This newsletter is brought to you by BoxWood · The AI-powered programmatic hedge booking system for commodity producers, consumers, refiners, hedge funds, and trading houses. See a live demo →
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe
One sponsor per issue. Ask us about a future month →
Unsubscribe · View in browser · Subscribe