Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Monday, September 21, 2026 · 35 stories
▶ The 2-minute market brief · video · 1.25x
▶Listen · the 2-minute market briefToday's markets in two minutes. Tap to play
Markets at a glance
Last price as of Mon, Sep 21, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent is near $102, down about $2 (-2%), WTI around $94, on hopes of diplomacy. Trump said he would “probably” meet Iran’s Pezeshkian in New York this week. Trump is meeting GCC leaders Tuesday and Xi at the White House Thursday.
JPMorgan put recent Middle East flows at about 17 million bpd, below 2025 but better than feared after the East-West outage. Partial pipe repair plus Saudi (ship to ship using shuttle tankers) STS and Hormuz loadings weigh on crude.
Trump had the Pentagon ready Houthi airstrikes late last week. Targets were approved and munitions loaded. He put them on hold Sunday.
Diesel stays tight on Russian and Hormuz blocked refineries offline.
Dutch TTF down $3.44 (-4.3%) on easing European gas supply concerns amid signs of improved Hormuz transit and diplomatic de-escalation.
Cotton up $2.37 (+2.9%) on severe weather challenges and acreage abandonment in the Southwestern US tightening supply prospects.
JKM up $0.76 (+2.8%) on rising Asian LNG spot demand amid hot weather lifting power needs and lingering Middle East supply tightness.
Copper up $219 (+1.5%) on stronger Chinese demand signals including rising Yangshan premiums and expectations of sustained consumption from data centers and renewables.
Cocoa up $75 (+1.4%) on persistent supply concerns from West African weather and harvest risks despite broader inventory builds.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs recommends long European gasoline futures for mid-2027 on refiners prioritizing diesel output tightening gasoline markets.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil
What's moving · Brent falls toward $102 on diplomacy hopes and Saudi export recovery via Hormuz.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
94.36 |
-1.8%
-1.72 |
+64.3% |
+50.6% |
+33.7% |
| Brent |
101.99 |
-1.8%
-1.88 |
+60.7% |
+46.9% |
+31.5% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.442 |
-2.4%
-0.086 |
+86.5% |
+60.7% |
+51.0% |
| Heating Oil |
4.946 |
-2.2%
-0.111 |
+123.8% |
+107.1% |
+118.4% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
50.20 |
-3.6%
-1.88 |
+149.6%
+30.09 |
+83.9%
+22.91 |
+99.6%
+25.05 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
113.39 |
-2.5%
-2.96 |
+220.4%
+78.00 |
+200.9%
+75.70 |
+361.3%
+88.81 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
71.26 |
-3.1%
-2.24 |
+182.8%
+46.06 |
+131.7%
+40.50 |
+185.6%
+46.30 |
Oil slides on Iran war diplomacy hopes and Saudi shipments.
Florence Tan and Mohi Narayan ·
Reuters · Mon, Sep 21
Brent and WTI touched their lowest levels since September 10 on Monday. Markets priced out some risk premium after Trump signaled possible talks with Iran this week at the UN. Saudi Aramco increased Hormuz exports this month and next after East-West pipeline attacks.
Read →
Brent falls over 2% to one-week low as supply fears ease.
Brent reached $101.69 as traders removed part of the geopolitical premium. JPMorgan noted Middle East flows averaged 17.1 million bpd recently, only 6.1 million bpd below 2025 levels. Aramco plans significant Ras Tanura loadings for September-October via Gulf routes.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures hit four-week high near $2.87 on hotter weather forecasts and firm oil prices ahead of EIA storage report.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.874 |
-1.3%
-0.038 |
-22.1% |
+2.4% |
-40.2% |
US natgas futures hit four-week high near $2.87.
Front-month NYMEX gas futures rose 9.6 cents or 3.5% to $2.87/MMBtu on Wednesday, their highest since July 24. Support came from forecasts for hotter weather boosting power demand and steady oil prices. Traders await the weekly EIA storage report due this week amid a still-robust inventory surplus.
Read →
US and China discuss scrapping 15% LNG tariff.
Jarrett Renshaw ·
Reuters · Thu, Sep 18, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Washington and Beijing are negotiating to reduce or eliminate China's 15% tariff on US LNG as part of a broader energy and agriculture deal package potentially worth $30 billion in reciprocal cuts. The move comes ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington next week. US LNG exports averaged 17.4 bcf/d in the first half of 2026, up 23% from a year earlier.
Read →
September power burn on pace for record.
Power-sector gas demand averaged 46.2 bcf/d Sept. 1 to 14, up 6.8 bcf/d year-over-year and on track to shatter the prior September record of 40.7 bcf/d. Strong burn stems from lingering summerlike heat in the South. Henry Hub spot prices averaged a subdued $2.85/MMBtu over the period while Southeast cash premiums stayed elevated.
Read →
Your ad here
One sponsor per issue, and nobody else
This is where a sponsor's block sits: room to actually say what you do, to the people who read this letter every morning.
Email us for the audience and the rates →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls 2% to €78 to 79/MWh as EU storage lags at 69.6% (-18pp vs norm) amid tight global LNG.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Dutch TTF
€/MWh |
76.08 |
-4.3%
-3.44 |
+170.2% |
+138.9% |
+3.1% |
Dutch TTF
$/MMBtu |
25.60 |
-4.3%
-1.16 |
+170.2% |
+138.9% |
+3.1% |
JKM
$/MMBtu |
27.51 |
+2.8%
+0.76 |
+186.4% |
+144.1% |
-0.1% |
EU gas storage · gas day Sat, Sep 19
EU gas storage is 69.6% full, 788 TWh in store, 15.8 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.8 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 56.5%.
EU full 69.6% +0.31 pts d/d | Year ago 81.4% | 5-yr avg 85.4% same date |
Germany 56.5% |
QatarEnergy warns Hormuz crisis may delay LNG expansion
QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi said the Strait of Hormuz crisis is delaying critical equipment for North Field East and South LNG expansions, with first NFE trains now eyed for 2027 and NFS for 2028. Current output is only a "very minute" volume. This prolongs global LNG tightness, supporting higher TTF and JKM by limiting new supply into 2027 to 28.
Read →
Goldman: TTF to €105, JKM to $35 if Gulf LNG constrained
Goldman Sachs says TTF and JKM could reach €105/MWh and $35/MMBtu by year-end without improvement in Persian Gulf LNG flows, versus base case of €70 and $25. The outlook hinges on Hormuz recovery; persistent constraints would force demand destruction in Europe and Asia.
Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM activates demand response amid unseasonal heat, with spot prices spiking above $4,300/MWh as outages hit 37 GW and demand nears 132 GW.
Heat wave triggers PJM demand curbs and $4,300/MWh spikes
Unseasonably high temperatures across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic drove PJM to issue alerts and activate demand response programs, ordering major non-residential customers to cut usage. With nearly 37 GW of generation offline for maintenance and demand forecast above 132 GW, spot prices on PJM's Western hub exceeded $4,300 per megawatt-hour. The strain coincides with autumn maintenance outages and follows a summer of record loads from data centers and cooling demand.
Read →
Coal
What's moving · China spot thermal coal hits 3-year high, prompting Beijing to urge stable mine output.
74 Indian coal plants now critically low on stocks
Sethuraman N R ·
Reuters · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Central Electricity Authority data showed 74 plants with stocks below 25% of required levels or enough for under three days’ generation as of Sep 19, up from 60 the prior week. Peak power demand hovers at 230 to 250 GW amid El Niño heat. Imports hit a 15-month high in August as utilities turn to overseas coal.
Read →
Met coal prices consolidate on Australian weather risks
BigMint Bureau ·
BigMint · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Premium hard coking coal holds near $235/t FOB Australia and low-vol material at $190 to 195/t amid heavy Queensland rainfall disrupting Bowen Basin mines and Dalrymple Bay loadings. Indian and Southeast Asian mills cover forward requirements while Chinese buying stays selective. Prices stabilise after an early-month rally with limited downside risk.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA-trimmed Kansas corn output and profit-taking drive grains lower amid harvest progress and China trade hopes.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
533 |
+1.0%
+5 |
+21.0% |
+26.3% |
+3.0% |
| Wheat |
724 |
+1.4%
+10 |
+42.9% |
+41.8% |
+4.9% |
| Soybeans |
1,310 |
+0.5%
+7 |
+27.1% |
+29.6% |
+2.8% |
| Sugar |
18.26 |
+0.1%
+0.02 |
+21.7% |
+19.7% |
-3.7% |
| Coffee |
277.9 |
-0.9%
-2.6 |
-20.3% |
-24.4% |
+51.5% |
| Cocoa |
5,402 |
+1.4%
+75 |
-10.9% |
-22.4% |
+107.4% |
| Cotton |
83.52 |
+2.9%
+2.37 |
+28.9% |
+28.8% |
-9.1% |
Grains fall as USDA trims Kansas corn output
Soybean, corn and wheat trackers declined on Friday, September 18, with the WEAT tracker down 1.45% to US$25.86, SOYB down 1.04% to US$27.68 and CORN down 0.66% to US$19.70. The drop followed USDA September Feed Outlook and Crop Production reports that cut the national corn yield to 178.5 bushels per acre and trimmed Kansas production by 39 million bushels from the prior month. Lower US supply signals support prices long-term but triggered near-term technical selling during Midwest harvest.
Read →
Corn and soy futures dip on profit-taking
Chicago corn and soybean futures fell Friday as traders booked profits after multiyear highs. December corn settled down 3 cents at $5.27 to 1/2 per bushel and November soybeans down 16 to 1/4 cents at $13.03 to 1/2. Harvest expanded in the Midwest despite scattered rains while attention shifted to next week’s Trump-Xi meeting on Chinese ag purchases.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Chinese smelter maintenance and Shanghai port congestion tighten near-term copper supply, lifting LME prices.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,972 |
+1.5%
+219 |
+20.6% |
+48.5% |
+64.5% |
Copper
SHFE $/mt |
14,535 |
+0.4%
+60 |
+14.5% |
+46.9% |
+52.4% |
Aluminium
SHFE $/mt |
3,210 |
-0.3%
-10 |
+7.9% |
+25.1% |
+10.6% |
Zinc
SHFE $/mt |
3,530 |
+0.7%
+23 |
+17.5% |
+28.4% |
+15.7% |
Nickel
SHFE $/mt |
16,330 |
-0.2%
-38 |
-3.6% |
+7.4% |
-20.5% |
Lead
SHFE $/mt |
2,167 |
+0.6%
+13 |
-1.7% |
+3.9% |
+6.3% |
Tin
SHFE $/mt |
53,999 |
+0.8%
+428 |
+28.5% |
+59.2% |
+58.0% |
Tight supply and demand pickup to lift copper prices.
LME copper closed Friday up 0.62% at $14,563/mt amid higher open interest. Multiple Chinese smelters enter maintenance October-November amid tight concentrates and blister, limiting refined supply growth. Shanghai social inventories fell sharply pre-holiday with spot premiums firming as downstream buying sentiment improved modestly.
Read →
Copper eyes weekly gain as China demand offsets tariffs.
Three-month LME copper rose 0.3% to $14,539/mt Friday and headed for a weekly gain above 2%. Yangshan premiums hit $121/mt, the highest since October 2022, reflecting stronger Chinese physical demand. SHFE stocks rose modestly after prior draws while LME tightness eased slightly into contango.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures rose 0.70% to 715.5 yuan/t on pre-National Day restocking while SGX 62% Fe stayed near $97 to 98/t amid thin mill margins.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
94.5 |
-0.0%
-0.0 |
-6.1% |
-1.2% |
-11.3% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
404 |
+0.2%
+1 |
+2.5% |
+4.2% |
-44.0% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
437 |
+0.1%
+1 |
+6.0% |
+6.3% |
-42.3% |
BHP, Baowu renew five-year low-carbon steel MoU
BHP and China Baowu renewed their 2020 partnership with a new five-year MoU focused on modified blast-furnace tech and DRI trials using Pilbara ore. Target is at least 30% lower CO2 intensity versus conventional BF, potentially over 80% with CCS and renewables. Prior trials showed hydrogen DRI from Pilbara ore at half conventional BF emissions intensity, supporting future EAF pathways.
Read →
DCE iron ore up 0.70% on holiday restocking; SGX flat
Dalian most-traded iron ore contract settled at 715.5 yuan/t ($106.83/t) after rising 0.70%, driven by mills restocking ahead of the October National Day holiday. Benchmark 62% Fe futures stayed broadly flat near $97 to 98/t CFR China with Qingdao spot prices unchanged. August China imports hit 108.54 Mt (+3.1% YoY) while daily hot-metal output slipped 0.7% MoM, highlighting the gap between short-term buying and structural demand weakness.
Read →
DCE iron ore futures close higher on restocking
The most-active DCE iron ore contract for January 2027 delivery rose 0.70% to close at 715.50 yuan/t ($106.67/t). Gains reflect Chinese steelmakers accelerating seaborne purchases ahead of the holiday break despite ongoing pressure from weak domestic steel demand and thin mill margins.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold edges lower to $4,354/oz as traders weigh Middle East tensions, Fed rate path and inflation.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,387 |
-0.9%
-38 |
+1.1% |
+16.2% |
+146.8% |
| Silver |
66.66 |
-0.7%
-0.49 |
-5.0% |
+52.2% |
+195.3% |
| Platinum |
1,807 |
+0.1%
+1 |
-11.2% |
+27.0% |
+89.9% |
| Palladium |
1,314 |
-0.5%
-6 |
-19.4% |
+10.0% |
-30.7% |
Gold edges lower as traders weigh inflation, Fed hike outlook
Spot gold fell as much as 0.7% below $4,350 an ounce, erasing last week’s modest gain. Traders assessed persistent inflation risks and the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023, with several policymakers scheduled to speak this week. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Read →
Gold falls as focus turns to Middle East and rates
Ashitha Shivaprasad ·
Reuters · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Spot gold dropped 0.5% to $4,354.30 an ounce amid fresh Iran-US tensions and expectations of further central-bank tightening. Oil prices eased on hopes of diplomatic progress, while silver, platinum and palladium also moved lower except palladium which rose 0.8%. Analysts noted official-sector demand continues to underpin prices structurally.
Read →
Central banks buy gold at 91 tonnes a month pace
Net central-bank purchases hit 23 tonnes in July with China adding 20 tonnes for its 21st straight month of buying. The pace of 91 tonnes per month far exceeds the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes, providing a structural floor despite recent price volatility and rate-hike pressures.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China rare-earth magnet exports to US fell 21% in August to 512 tons ahead of Trump-Xi summit.
China rare-earth magnet exports to US drop 21% in August
Chinese customs data show rare-earth magnet shipments to the US fell 21% month-over-month in August to 512 tons, remaining below 2024 averages despite eased controls. The decline precedes Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting in Washington, where critical minerals flows are expected on the agenda, and the November expiration of the US-China trade truce on export licenses. Beijing has positioned additional licenses as potential negotiating leverage while direct exports of controlled heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium also lag prior years.
Read →
China Rare Earth Group eyes Shenghe stake tied to MP Materials
State-owned China Rare Earth Group is negotiating a controlling stake in Shenghe Resources, a move that would consolidate Beijing’s grip on rare earth quotas and give it indirect exposure to Shenghe’s 3% holding in US producer MP Materials. MP Materials, operator of the Mountain Pass mine and recipient of Pentagon investment, has stated that neither Shenghe nor the Chinese government controls its operations. The talks, ongoing since earlier this year, align with Beijing’s long-running state consolidation of the sector and could affect global supply expectations tied to quota allocations.
Read →
Lynas posts four-year high revenue on rare earth prices
Lynas Rare Earths reported its highest quarterly revenue in nearly four years, driven by elevated rare earth prices amid ongoing supply constraints outside China. The Australian producer continues expanding non-Chinese magnet supply chains, including a $50 million investment in a South Korean permanent magnet facility. Lynas has benefited from China’s export controls while advancing its own heavy rare earth separation capacity for dysprosium and other magnet materials.
Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Gulf crisis and Hormuz disruption drive VLCC rates above $1M/day, lifting BDI 1% to 3,370 on Capesize gains.
ClarkSea Index hits new high as VLCC earnings top $1M/day on Hormuz surge
The ClarkSea Index reached a second consecutive record high driven by a historic crude tanker rally. VLCC rates out of the Gulf exceeded $1 million per day equivalent on key routes amid Hormuz transit restrictions and shuttle operations, with broader dirty tanker segments also surging. Clarksons noted exceptional earnings across VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax as geopolitical disruptions tighten supply.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU nations back 121M extra free ETS permits, easing industrial carbon costs by €8.25B.
RGGI Q3 auction clears at record $37.65
The 73rd RGGI auction sold 28.5 million CO2 allowances at a clearing price of $37.65, a new all-time high and above the prior auction's $35.00. Virginia's resumed participation added supply while the sale generated over $1.07 billion for state reinvestment in energy efficiency and clean energy. Secondary market prices traded above the auction clearing level.
Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · SEC's five-year tokenized-stock exemption and Payward's Hyperliquid US perps push drive RWA momentum.
GGD launches tokenized physical gold RWA ecosystem on BNB Chain
GGD launched a three-token tokenized physical gold ecosystem on BNB Chain with GGT representing 0.001 troy ounces of gold backed by the CSOP Gold ETF, plus GGU as a volatility buffer and GGD as governance token. The DAO structure enables onchain staking, minting, governance, and buybacks funded by protocol revenue, expanding tokenized gold options beyond dominant products like XAUT and PAXG.
Read →
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · ONEOK's $4.43B Permian gas midstream buy and TotalEnergies' $1.8B Africa infrastructure financing drive corporate deal flow.
TotalEnergies gets $1.8B GIP Africa infrastructure deal
TotalEnergies entered a $1.8 billion partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners (BlackRock) for interests in certain African oil and gas infrastructure assets. GIP will make the capital contribution in exchange for a throughput-based tariff over up to 15 years. The deal supports TotalEnergies’ African portfolio without specifying exact assets.
Read →
Welspun associate wins Rs 2,000 cr Aramco pipe order
Welspun Corp’s Saudi-listed associate East Pipes Integrated Company (EPIC) secured a contract worth over SAR 771 million (Rs 2,000 crore) from Saudi Aramco for manufacturing and supply of steel pipes. The six-month order’s financial impact will appear from Q4 FY27 through Q1 FY28. It bolsters EPIC’s position as a preferred supplier in Saudi energy infrastructure.
Read →
Continental Resources targets 30-Bbbl Venezuela oil block
Continental Resources signed an MOU with Venezuela’s PDVSA to operate and develop the Ayacucho 2 block in the Orinoco Oil Belt. The 126,000-acre block holds an estimated 30 billion barrels of oil resource in place. The U.S. independent aims to begin production within 18 months via a production-sharing agreement.
Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump signs Russia sanctions bill granting him tariff powers on top energy buyers, amid US-China trade easing moves.
Trump signs Russia sanctions bill granting tariff powers
President Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law. The measure targets Russia’s energy and defense sectors plus its shadow fleet and directs the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top five importers of Russian crude oil or natural gas. It also extends sanctions on Iran’s energy sector.
Read →
Trump signs bill allowing tariffs on Russian oil buyers
President Trump signed legislation empowering him to levy tariffs on countries purchasing Russian petroleum products. The bill sanctions Russian officials, banks, and energy projects to pressure Moscow over Ukraine. Ukrainian officials welcomed the move as concrete US support.
Read →
US suspends China export controls and port fees
The US agreed to suspend for one year a BIS rule expanding export controls on thousands of Chinese entities and to suspend port fees on Chinese ships. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the steps as part of a deal with Beijing that includes soybean purchases.
Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil producers break 18-year XLE resistance
Traders note oil and gas producers via the XLE ETF breaking long-term resistance, highlighting relative undervaluation of oil and natural gas versus other hard commodities. This reflects positioning for potential upside in energy equities tied to physical market tightness.
Read →
DXY tests last resistance for commodities boost
Market watchers flag the US dollar index at a key resistance level; a break lower could weaken the dollar and add momentum to commodities and emerging markets trades. This macro setup is being monitored closely by energy and metals traders.
Read →
Oil rally over as no escalation left
Oil traders on X express fatigue after recent gains, arguing limited room for further upside without new geopolitical sparks. Sentiment shows mixed views on whether physical tightness or demand destruction will dominate next moves.
Read →
Hormuz tanker traffic persists amid attacks
#OOTT community discusses real-time satellite data of Aframax and VLCC movements in the strait, noting continued flows via alternative routes and US naval presence. This tempers immediate supply-disruption fears while highlighting persistent risk.
Read →
Gold consolidates near 4370, watch 4350
Gold analysts highlight range-bound trading around 4370 with low volatility, suggesting buy-the-dip setups near 4350 to 4300 supports and caution on rallies toward 4400 to 4420. Retail and technical traders focus on short-term ranges amid broader commodity flows.
Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hedge smarter, not harder.
This newsletter is brought to you by
BoxWood · The AI-powered programmatic hedge booking system for commodity producers, consumers, refiners, hedge funds, and trading houses.
See a live demo →
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
Unsubscribe ·
View in browser ·
Subscribe
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC, the company behind BoxWood. BoxWood is commodity hedge management software for oil and gas producers, fuel consumers, refiners, and trade houses: AI-checked trade confirmations, one-click daily mark-to-market, counterparty reconciliation, settlements, scenario analysis, and automated daily reports for natural gas, NGL, crude, refined-product, and basis hedges.
How BoxWood compares with AEGIS and CTRM software →