Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 39 stories
▶ The 2-minute market brief · video · 1.25x
▶Listen · the 2-minute market briefToday's markets in two minutes. Tap to play
Markets at a glance
Last price as of Tue, Aug 25, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude down almost $3 (-3%) as a Chinese official announced at 4:20am ET this morning that it would not adhere to the “Operation Economic Outcast” expanded secondary sanctions announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this week. Meaning China will continue to buy Iranian oil. Which means increased global supply and lower crude prices.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China opposes unilateral sanctions and economic wars. He emphasized that China’s cooperation with Iran has been conducted within the framework of international law and should not be interfered with or undermined.
Palladium down $36 (-2.6%) on broader precious metals selloff amid stronger US dollar and geopolitical concerns.
Dutch TTF down $1.76 (-2.6%).
JKM up $0.57 (+2.5%) on Asian demand and transit risk support.
Nat Gas down $0.046 (-1.7%) on strong US production, ample inventories and weaker LNG feedgas demand.
Platinum down $29 (-1.5%) on broader precious metals selloff amid stronger US dollar.
Kicker: JPMorgan recommends long October WTI crude calendar spread versus December on expected Q3 inventory draws from Hormuz constraints.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil steadies on US Iran sanctions push
Oil held a decline as the US ramped up economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners in a bid to force the resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded near $92 a barrel, after falling more than 2% in the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate was around $85.
Read →
Oil steadies after US Iran sanctions
Oil prices recovered ground on Tuesday after settling down more than 2% in the previous session, with investors assessing the impact of the latest U.S. sanctions against Iran. Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $92.44 a barrel by 0330 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 37 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.38.
Read →
Nearly half global oil from war zones
Almost half the world's oil comes from countries affected by conflict in 2026, Reuters calculations show, underscoring that current disruptions have eclipsed previous energy crises. Countries affected by conflicts produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil based on 2025 output, accounting for more than 43% of global supply.
Read →
Gold Fields profit surges 81%
South Africa's Gold Fields said on Tuesday its half-year profit rose 81%, driven by higher gold prices, output and sales. The Johannesburg-based miner reported headline earnings per share of $2.08 for the six months to June 30, up from $1.15 a year earlier, and will pay a dividend of 16.25 rand per share.
Read →
Black Sea fighting hits grain exports
Close to a third of global wheat exports sail out of Russian and Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. In recent weeks renewed fighting has again been disrupting exports, and this time not only Ukraine’s sales are getting thumped.
Read →
Oil
What's moving · WTI settles at $85.01 and Brent at $92.17 as profit-taking follows US Iran sanctions push.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
82.69 |
-2.7%
-2.32 |
+44.0% |
+30.7% |
+21.0% |
| Brent |
89.68 |
-2.7%
-2.49 |
+45.0% |
+31.3% |
+22.2% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.245 |
-0.8%
-0.026 |
+72.6% |
+38.7% |
+28.0% |
| Heating Oil |
4.245 |
-0.5%
-0.023 |
+95.8% |
+82.1% |
+96.1% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
53.60 |
+2.4%
+1.24 |
+149.0%
+32.07 |
+53.2%
+18.60 |
+40.5%
+15.45 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
95.59 |
+1.4%
+1.36 |
+184.4%
+61.98 |
+175.9%
+60.94 |
+323.5%
+73.02 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
67.60 |
+1.9%
+1.28 |
+164.5%
+42.04 |
+93.8%
+32.72 |
+105.1%
+34.64 |
Oil settles down over $2 as profit-taking follows US sanctions on Iran
Brent crude futures settled down $2.22 (2.35%) to $92.17 while WTI fell $2.05 (2.35%) to $85.01 on Monday. Traders booked profits after two weeks of gains exceeding 5% despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing expanded secondary sanctions targeting Iran's trading partners and oil revenue networks. The moves signal limited immediate market belief in rapid supply relief from the Strait of Hormuz amid the six-month US-Iran conflict.
Read →
US warns Iran partners of secondary sanctions but delays penalties
Treasury Secretary Bessent unveiled an 'economic onslaught' giving nations defined timelines to sever Iran links or risk dollar-system exclusion, while sanctioning over 60 entities and vessels. No major Chinese banks were hit yet despite Beijing's role as top Iranian oil buyer; Bessent signaled a major financial institution sanction by week's end. Analysts see limited short-term oil-flow impact unless enforcement targets China aggressively.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Cheniere Corpus Christi LNG maintenance cuts feedgas to 1.8 bcfd, easing US LNG demand pressure on prices near $2.77.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.736 |
-1.7%
-0.046 |
-24.3% |
+2.7% |
-28.4% |
Cheniere Corpus Christi LNG runs maintenance, intake falls to 1.8 bcfd.
Curtis Williams ·
Reuters · Mon, Aug 24, 6:15 PM ET
Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi LNG plant in Texas is undergoing planned maintenance, with feedgas intake at about 1.8 bcfd versus a typical 2.6 bcfd. Total US LNG plant feedgas flows reached 16.7 bcfd on Monday, below the nearly 18 bcfd nameplate capacity. The reduction reduces near-term US LNG export demand, adding to supply available for domestic use amid record production.
Read →
US natural gas futures rise on hot weather power demand outlook.
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 1.7% to $2.821/MMBtu in early trading on expectations of at least two more weeks of extreme heat across the southern US boosting power-sector demand. Weather models show bullish signals for the next 10 days before turning closer to seasonal. The front-month contract gained despite ample inventories and strong production.
Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises to 68.5 EUR/MWh on weak EU storage injections and high forward prices needed to attract LNG.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh |
66.56 |
-2.6%
-1.76 |
+136.8% |
+99.3% |
+47.2% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu |
22.77 |
-2.6%
-0.60 |
+136.8% |
+99.3% |
+47.2% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu |
23.51 |
+2.5%
+0.57 |
+144.8% |
+104.6% |
+38.1% |
TTF benchmark climbs to 69.05 EUR/MWh
Dutch TTF gas futures reached 69.05 EUR/MWh on Aug. 25, up 0.87% from the prior session. The move aligns with ongoing storage shortfalls and forward curves requiring higher prices to secure LNG inflows. JKM stood near $23.51/MMBtu, reflecting parallel strength in Asian benchmarks amid shared global supply tightness.
Read →
Power
What's moving · SPP declares Resource Advisories for East and West BAAs amid hot weather, high loads, and low renewables forecast starting Aug 24.
Dutch EPEX day-ahead prices jump 28% on Aug 24
Average all-in consumer electricity price on the Dutch market reached €0.3017/kWh on Aug 24, up 28.4% from the prior day with the EPEX spot component driving the move. Prices varied hourly from a low of €0.1683/kWh at 13:00 to €0.3901/kWh at 20:00. The spike reflects tighter conditions ahead of cooler forecasts for Aug 25 that point to sharply lower prices.
Read →
Western US power prices drop sharply as heat eases
Wholesale power prices in the Western US fell as much as $62/MWh day-over-day on Aug 25 as a heat wave exits the region. CAISO NP15 and SP15 on-peak day-ahead LMPs hit multi-month highs earlier in the week (up to $63.34/MWh) on elevated cooling demand before cooling. Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest ICE on-peak prices also declined sharply for Aug 26 delivery.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Corn futures hit 3-year high on Pro Farmer's 173.2 bu/acre yield estimate, 7.5 bu below USDA.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
516 |
+0.1%
+1 |
+17.3% |
+33.2% |
-6.3% |
| Wheat |
694 |
-0.8%
-6 |
+36.8% |
+36.2% |
-2.5% |
| Soybeans |
1,222 |
-0.2%
-2 |
+18.6% |
+18.8% |
-9.2% |
| Sugar |
17.53 |
-0.7%
-0.12 |
+16.8% |
+6.8% |
-11.2% |
| Coffee |
339.3 |
-0.7%
-2.3 |
-2.7% |
-11.7% |
+84.4% |
| Cocoa |
5,876 |
-1.2%
-69 |
-3.1% |
-22.0% |
+123.3% |
| Cotton |
87.87 |
-0.5%
-0.47 |
+36.7% |
+34.2% |
-8.4% |
Corn hits 3-year high on Pro Farmer's low yield guess
December corn settled up 1.4% at $5.1550/bushel, a three-year closing high, after Pro Farmer's crop tour estimated 173.2 bu/acre national yield versus USDA's 180.7. The tour pegged production at 15.344 billion bushels, well below the August WASDE forecast, with weather issues cited in key states. Soybean tour results at 53.3 bu/acre were bearish for beans, which fell 1.2%.
Read →
USDA: Corn conditions fall to 57% good-excellent
USDA's weekly Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn rated 57% good-to-excellent as of Aug. 23, down 3 points from the prior week and 14 points from last year. Soybeans slipped to 60% good-excellent; spring wheat harvest reached 62%, 10 points ahead of average. Cotton conditions fell 1 point to 37% good-excellent.
Read →
Sugar futures drop 2.3% as India eases supply fears
Raw sugar on ICE fell 2.3% to 17.20 cents/lb after India’s mills association said supplies are fundamentally strong despite earlier import duty waiver talk. White sugar dropped 3% to $534.70/ton. The market had rallied sharply on prior tightness concerns but now prices in faster Brazilian harvest progress.
Read →
Arabica coffee surges nearly 6% to six-week high
Arabica futures gained 5.89% to settle at 341.65 cents/lb, the strongest in six weeks, as the delivery notice period opened with thin activity and certified stocks approached 26-year lows. Robusta was little changed amid rising inventories and mixed Vietnam/Indonesia crop signals.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME copper rebounds on cancelled warrants surge amid US tariff flows and weaker dollar.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,579 |
+0.1%
+18 |
+17.5% |
+48.6% |
+55.1% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) |
14,261 |
+0.4%
+55 |
+12.3% |
+48.3% |
+45.7% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) |
3,131 |
+0.0%
+1 |
+5.2% |
+24.2% |
+14.8% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) |
3,423 |
+0.4%
+14 |
+14.0% |
+24.8% |
+10.7% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) |
17,041 |
-0.3%
-58 |
+0.6% |
+15.6% |
-14.9% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) |
2,114 |
-0.4%
-8 |
-4.0% |
+3.4% |
-3.6% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) |
56,038 |
-0.2%
-131 |
+33.4% |
+72.7% |
+72.8% |
Copper rises on LME cancelled warrants jump and weaker dollar
Reuters · Mon, Aug 25, 2026, 4:54 AM ET
Benchmark LME three-month copper rose 0.2% to $14,240 per tonne as cancelled warrants hit 240,250 tonnes (50% of stocks), mostly in US and Asian warehouses, signaling metal heading to Comex or US buyers amid tariff expectations. A weaker US dollar supported dollar-priced metals. Zinc hit $3,850 per tonne, highest since June 2022, on LME stock drawdowns and non-China shortages; other metals saw minor moves.
Read →
Copper drops on LME and SHFE inventory builds easing tightness
Reuters · Mon, Aug 25, 2026, 11:10 AM ET (updated)
Three-month LME copper fell 0.4% to $14,159 per tonne as LME stocks rose to 238,575 tonnes and SHFE stocks jumped 28.4% to 89,548 tonnes, narrowing cash-to-three-month backwardation and easing prior squeeze concerns. Weaker dollar capped losses ahead of Jackson Hole. SHFE copper contract edged higher while other LME metals were mixed.
Read →
LME posts latest cash and three-month base metals prices
LME official prices showed copper cash at $14,290-$14,291 per tonne and three-month at $14,233-$14,235; aluminum cash $3,227; zinc cash $3,979; nickel cash $16,845-$16,860. Figures reflect recent session settlements amid ongoing inventory and tariff-driven flows.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China port iron ore stocks fell 1.24 Mt Monday to 145.54 Mt as restocking lifts SGX 62% Fe near $95.34/t despite July steel output at 2017 low.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
93.9 |
-0.3%
-0.3 |
-6.7% |
-2.6% |
-34.2% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
400 |
+0.6%
+2 |
+1.5% |
+1.3% |
-46.9% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
434 |
-0.1%
-0 |
+5.3% |
+3.6% |
-46.3% |
China restocking drives iron ore flat at $95.34/t despite weak steel output
Iron ore settled essentially flat at US$95.34 per tonne on Monday, August 24, 2026. China’s port inventories fell 1.24 million tons to 145.54 million tons with daily outbound volumes up 48,000 tons, signaling mill restocking ahead of potential stimulus rather than fresh end-use demand. This occurs against China’s crude steel output falling about 3% in the first half to 499.95 million tons and July production hitting its weakest level since 2017 at 76.93 million metric tons, keeping the complex in fragile balance.
Read →
Rebar futures drop to 4-week low near CNY 3,070/t on weak construction
Steel rebar futures fell to around CNY 3,070 per ton, retreating from multi-week highs to four-week lows. Weak construction activity and elevated rebar inventories continued to weigh on sentiment as China’s property market remained under pressure with new home prices falling year-on-year in July. Weak mill profitability limited buying appetite while only about one-third of steelmakers were profitable at the end of July, though improving blast-furnace operating rates offered some support.
Read →
Iron ore futures ease to CNY 713/t amid stimulus hopes and weak demand
Iron ore futures hovered around CNY 710 to 713 per ton on August 25. China’s steel output fell 3.6% year-on-year to 76.93 million tons in July, the lowest for the month since 2017, while inventories remained elevated. Weak property activity weighed on demand with home prices down and only about one-third of steelmakers profitable, though fresh Chinese stimulus signals provided some support.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · US Treasury buybacks revive dollar-debasement fears, lifting gold to three-month high near $4,700/oz.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,635 |
-0.2%
-10 |
+8.3% |
+38.2% |
+161.9% |
| Silver |
67.79 |
-1.2%
-0.81 |
-3.3% |
+75.8% |
+185.3% |
| Platinum |
1,860 |
-1.5%
-29 |
-8.6% |
+38.6% |
+87.4% |
| Palladium |
1,328 |
-2.6%
-36 |
-18.5% |
+22.4% |
-45.3% |
Gold steadies near three-month high after Treasury buybacks spark rally.
Gold consolidated near a three-month high after a four-day rally fueled by the US Treasury's ramped-up buybacks of long-dated government debt. The intervention revived concerns over US fiscal policy and dollar weakness, pushing bullion up about 7% over the past week to nearly $4,700/oz intraday before a modest pullback. Focus now shifts to upcoming US inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Read →
Gold ETFs attract nearly 47 tonnes, strongest weekly demand in 10 months.
Physically-backed gold ETFs saw net inflows of nearly 47 tonnes worth about $6 billion last week, the largest weekly demand since mid-October 2025. North American funds led the buying, with inflows across all regions as investors positioned amid the rally driven by Treasury moves. This marks a sharp reversal from prior outflow trends and adds to safe-haven demand for gold.
Read →
Official-sector gold buying remains robust with Poland and China active.
Central banks added a net 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, a record for any second quarter and more than five times Q1 volumes. Poland led reported buyers with 51 tonnes in the quarter, while China added 33 tonnes; year-to-date Poland tops accumulators at 82 tonnes. This structural demand underpins prices even as investor flows accelerate on Treasury and debasement themes.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's ongoing rare earth export license blocks to Japan slash dysprosium and terbium imports 80%.
China blocks heavy rare earth licenses to Japan, imports plunge 80%.
Japanese Ministry of Finance data released Aug 19 show dysprosium-iron alloy imports fell 82% and yttrium oxide 74% year-on-year in H1 2026 after China blocked licenses since late 2025. Japan sources nearly all dysprosium and terbium from China despite broader diversification; Shin-Etsu suspended new dysprosium-magnet orders and Mitsubishi Motors' stocks last only to mid-year. The targeted cutoff of heavy rare earth feedstocks pressures EV motor and semiconductor equipment makers while finished Chinese magnets continue to flow.
Read →
US-EU critical minerals partnership advances amid China controls.
The April 2026 US-EU MOU and action plan create the first dedicated bilateral framework for critical minerals cooperation covering exploration to recycling. It targets China's 60% mine and 90% refining share of rare earths plus export licensing on heavy rare earths and magnets. Concrete joint projects remain limited so far, with most Western capacity building staying national.
Read →
Alcoa breaks ground on Wagerup gallium plant for critical minerals.
Alcoa broke ground Aug 24 on a gallium recovery facility at its Wagerup alumina refinery in Western Australia. The project, backed by Australia, Japan and US governments plus Sojitz, targets up to 10% of global gallium supply once operational. It strengthens non-Chinese supply for semiconductors and defense amid export controls on the byproduct metal.
Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI jumps 41 points to 2,882 as Capesize rates surge on iron ore demand.
BDI climbs 1.4% to 2,882 on broad vessel gains
The Baltic Exchange Dry Index rose 41 points or 1.44% to 2,882 on August 24, its highest since mid-August, with the Capesize sub-index up 2% to 4,643 and Panamax gaining 1.3% to 2,131. Gains were led by stronger Pacific Capesize activity tied to iron ore and coal cargoes. The move lifts earnings across segments and signals firmer dry-bulk demand.
Read →
Drewry WCI rises 4% to $4,526 on Transpacific strength
Drewry’s World Container Index climbed 4.3% to $4,526 per FEU in the week to August 20, its third straight gain, driven by 9% jumps on Shanghai-New York and Shanghai-Los Angeles to $9,507 and $6,802. Asia-Europe rates eased slightly while blank sailings, Panama surcharges and congestion tighten supply. Drewry sees rates stable next week amid resilient demand.
Read →
Gulf VLCC rates reach record $800k/day on spot surge
VLCC spot rates in the Gulf hit a record $800,000 per day as strong Chinese crude buying and tight tonnage lists drive fixtures. Activity surged east and west of Suez amid ongoing Hormuz-related rerouting and supply disruptions. The surge boosts tanker earnings and highlights persistent geopolitical pressure on crude flows.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs surge to one-month high near €84 on energy gains and policy return amid gas rally.
EUAs hit one-month high on energy gains and policy activity.
European carbon allowances rose to their highest level in a month, aligning with stronger energy markets. Front-month natural gas prices settled at their highest in nearly four years. European lawmakers returning to work added to the momentum driving the EUA recovery.
Read →
Industry warns ETS2 compensation rules leave consumers exposed.
Industry groups flagged that proposed EU rules for compensating consumers under the new ETS2 still risk passing unintended costs directly to households. They urged fixes before the system launches and costs materialize. The warnings target the design of compensation mechanisms in the expanding emissions market.
Read →
RGGI allowances rally past $40 on Virginia budget outlook.
RGGI Allowance futures climbed above $40 over the past week after Virginia regulators outlined expected CO2 budget paths for 2027 to 2037. The state's recent return to the program supported the upward move. Tighter future supply expectations lifted regional carbon prices.
Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Tokenized commodities add $298M market cap in a week as gold tokens climb amid broader RWA pullback.
Tokenized commodities gain $298M weekly as RWA sector drops $211M
Token Terminal data showed tokenized commodities rising $297.5M over seven days while tokenized funds fell $674.2M, leaving net RWA down $210.5M. Gold-backed tokens including Tether’s XAUT and Paxos’s PAXG drove the commodity gains, pushing the category toward a roughly $7.5B market cap earlier in August. The divergence underscores that tokenized commodities move independently from other RWA segments.
Read →
Hyperliquid’s Trade.xyz hits $500B volume in 24/7 oil and metal perps
Ryan Weeks, Spe Chen, Muyao Shen ·
Bloomberg · Mon, Aug 24, 2026
Trade.xyz perpetual futures on Hyperliquid have generated roughly $500 billion in cumulative volume since October, with the vast majority from RWA-linked contracts including crude oil, gold, and silver. The platform provided continuous pricing for oil during a February Middle East conflict when traditional markets were closed. Hyperliquid and Trade.xyz are now seeking regulatory pathways for expanded U.S. onshore trading of these commodity and equity perps.
Read →
Matrixdock adds Pyth oracle feed for tokenized silver XAGm
Matrixdock integrated a dedicated real-time price feed for its XAGm tokenized silver token on the Pyth Network, enabling on-chain silver pricing on Sui and Ethereum. The move pairs with its existing XAUm gold feed and supports lending, trading, and collateral use cases for the LBMA-backed silver asset. Both gold and silver products now have institutional-grade oracles to improve composability in DeFi.
Read →
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Woodside profit jumps 27% to $1.7B on higher oil/LNG prices despite 13% output drop; Shell US chemicals draw Exxon bids up to $8B.
Woodside H1 profit rises 27% to $1.7B on oil/LNG prices
Woodside Energy reported first-half net income of $1.7 billion, up 27% year-over-year, beating estimates. Higher realized oil and LNG prices from Middle East supply disruptions offset a 13% production decline to 86.5 million boe and ramp-up spending on Louisiana LNG. The result underscores resilience in Australian LNG and oil amid volatile energy markets.
Read →
Comet Ridge takes 100% of Mahalo gas hub from Santos
Comet Ridge completed the acquisition of Santos' 42.86% stake in the Mahalo Gas Project, gaining 100% ownership and operatorship of the Mahalo Gas Hub in Queensland. It paid A$24.42 million cash plus shares, with up to A$30 million contingent on production milestones. Full control enables faster FID and development of 361 PJ 2P reserves plus 676 PJ resources for east coast Australian gas markets.
Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US launches 'Operation Economic Outcast' sanctions on Iran and 60+ entities, while 50% tariffs hit Canadian goods after talks collapse.
Bessent unveils Operation Economic Outcast to isolate Iran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Operation Economic Outcast, sanctioning over 60 entities, individuals and vessels tied to Iranian oil revenue, nuclear technology and cyber operations. The campaign expands secondary sanctions risks in digital assets, gold, aviation, shipping and technology sectors. It targets enablers to cut Iran's remaining revenue sources amid the war and blockade.
Read →
US imposes 50% tariffs on $20B Canadian goods after talks fail.
The US and Canada failed to finalize a trade deal, triggering 50% Section 338 tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods including wine, dairy and autos. Prime Minister Mark Carney vowed immediate dollar-for-dollar retaliation targeting steel, dairy and electronics effective Sept. 8. The duties do not exempt USMCA-compliant products.
Read →
Lawmakers cite Chinese export controls deepening fertilizer crisis.
House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party members urged USDA and USTR action, citing China's export controls and purchases of sulfur for fertilizer that worsened US farm supply chain issues. They highlighted PRC strategic intervention in global commodity markets creating vulnerabilities. The letter calls for a coordinated fertilizer supply security strategy.
Read →
Canada vows dollar-for-dollar tariffs on US goods starting Sept. 8.
Nadine Yousif ·
BBC News · Sat, Aug 22, 2026
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada will impose reciprocal tariffs on US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. The measures target roughly the same value as US duties and take effect after Labor Day. Talks collapsed over last-minute US demands.
Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Uranium surges to 7-month high on supply tightness
Traders and analysts highlight uranium spot prices reaching multi-month highs near $89 to 90/lb, driven by ongoing supply shortages, production issues at key mines like Cigar Lake, and utilities locking in long-term contracts at premiums up to $95.50/lb. Discussions in uranium-focused circles emphasize structural deficits persisting for years, with Bank of America raising 2027 forecasts significantly higher, making it a hot topic among energy and critical minerals traders.
Read →
Commodity supercycle underway as index jumps 38%
Economist Steve Hanke and traders point to the broad commodity rally, with energy, metals, and ag contributing. Rice prices up over 45% in six months and other staples showing strength due to weather, geopolitical disruptions, and demand. Retail and pro traders debate if it's a true supercycle or temporary shocks, but volume and engagement are high across commodity accounts.
Read →
Oil swings on Iran sanctions, Hormuz risks persist
Traders discuss fresh US sanctions and 'economic asphyxiation' threats against Iran amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with reports of tanker incidents and stalled shipping deals. Oil prices (WTI/Brent) see intraday swings of 2%+, with mixed reactions to news, some see priced-in moves while others flag persistent supply risks. High engagement in energy trading circles on X and implied Reddit oil subs.
Read →
Copper shines as gold/silver lag in metals trade
Physical metals traders note copper up 10% YTD while gold is down 2% and silver sharply lower (26%), calling 2026 'the year of copper' due to industrial demand and supply dynamics. Discussions contrast this with precious metals volatility and consolidation, sparking debate on rotations in r/Gold-adjacent and broader metals trader communities.
Read →
Natgas rejects resistance; ag sees rice/wheat strength
Traders watch natural gas pull back from resistance zones amid mild weather and global price drops, while agriculture highlights include rice surges and wheat support from weather/export risks. Commodity voices discuss setups for natgas and grains, tying into broader supercycle talk with moderate but focused engagement.
Read →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hedge smarter, not harder.
This newsletter is brought to you by
BoxWood · The AI-powered programmatic hedge booking system for commodity producers, consumers, refiners, hedge funds, and trading houses.
See a live demo →
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
Unsubscribe ·
View in browser ·
Subscribe
Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc., the company behind BoxWood. BoxWood is commodity hedge management software for oil and gas producers, fuel consumers, refiners, and trade houses: AI-checked trade confirmations, one-click daily mark-to-market, counterparty reconciliation, settlements, scenario analysis, and automated daily reports for natural gas, NGL, crude, refined-product, and basis hedges.
How BoxWood compares with AEGIS and CTRM software →