Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Monday, August 24, 2026 · 41 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Mon, Aug 24, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Cocoa down $169 (-2.8%) on Ghana 2026/27 crop estimate cut to 650kt (-13%).
Sugar down $0.43 (-2.4%) on long liquidation and profit-taking after multi-week rally to 14-month highs.
Corn up $12 (+2.3%) on Pro Farmer crop tour showing US 2026 production well below forecasts due to adverse weather.
Crude down $1.65 (-1.6%) on profit-taking ahead of expected US announcement on new Iran sanctions.
Wheat up $11 (+1.5%) on ongoing Russia-Ukraine attacks curtailing Black Sea grain exports.
JKM up $0.33 (+1.5%) on tightening Asian spot LNG availability amid lower EU storage and seasonal demand.
Kicker: JPM long diesel crack spread as US inventories hit multi-decade lows for season on refinery outages and harvest demand.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Gold climbs to $4,617 on debt fears, fiscal unease
Spot gold gained 0.3% to $4,617.49 an ounce in Asian trade. The metal has rebounded from July lows near $4,000 to levels last seen in May amid renewed investment demand and concerns over U.S. government borrowing and currency debasement.
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Europe gas may need to top €100/MWh for winter stocks
Goldman Sachs said European gas prices likely need to exceed €100 per megawatt-hour in December to rebuild sufficient winter inventories. A recent rally in Dutch front-month futures to a five-month high above €65/MWh will not suffice if Middle East disruptions persist.
Read →
Zijin copper output target pressured by Congo flood
Zijin Mining said its full-year copper production target is under pressure after flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula complex in Congo. The Chinese miner expects its share of output to fall by as much as 57,000 tons this year as the metal trades near record highs.
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Iran finds 7.5tcf gas amid war-hit energy sector
Iran announced discovery of more than 7.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in southern Fars province, with 5.7tcf recoverable. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad called it equivalent to 15 years of production from one phase of the South Pars field.
Read →
Oil
What's moving · Oil slides on profit-taking ahead of U.S. 'economic D-Day' sanctions on Iran tightening Hormuz flows.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
85.41 |
-1.9%
-1.65 |
+48.7% |
+31.8% |
+26.5% |
| Brent |
93.22 |
-1.2%
-1.17 |
+53.2% |
+35.5% |
+31.2% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.271 |
-2.3%
-0.077 |
+75.2% |
+39.1% |
+37.0% |
| Heating Oil |
4.383 |
-2.5%
-0.111 |
+101.8% |
+82.3% |
+107.1% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
51.98 |
-2.9%
-1.57 |
+147.6%
+30.99 |
+53.0%
+18.00 |
+58.8%
+19.25 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
98.69 |
-3.0%
-3.03 |
+192.0%
+64.89 |
+172.8%
+62.51 |
+361.9%
+77.32 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
67.55 |
-3.0%
-2.05 |
+167.4%
+42.29 |
+94.6%
+32.84 |
+133.4%
+38.61 |
Oil slips over $1 on profit-taking ahead of U.S. Iran sanctions
Florence Tan and Trixie Yap ·
Reuters · Mon, Aug 24, 2026
Brent futures fell $1.49 or 1.6% to $92.90 a barrel and WTI dropped $1.74 or 2% to $85.32 in early trade. Traders locked in gains from last week's 5%+ rally as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares a Monday press conference on new sanctions targeting Iranian oil buyers and shippers. The move risks further curbing already-low tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Read →
Hormuz tanker traffic stays below 20 vessels over weekend
Only 13 vessels crossed on Saturday and four on Sunday per Kpler data. U.S. and Iranian blockades plus recent incidents keep flows at roughly 10% of pre-conflict levels. Persistent low throughput sustains supply concerns for Middle East crude and products.
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Exxon among bidders for Shell U.S. chemicals unit worth $8B
Shell drew interest from ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, Apollo Global Management and Kuwait Petroleum for its U.S. chemicals plants in Louisiana, Texas and Pennsylvania. Non-binding offers were submitted last month for the assets valued up to $8 billion. The divestment forms part of Shell's push to exit underperforming chemical operations.
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Oil prices slide 2% ahead of Bessent’s ‘Economic D-Day’
WTI and Brent futures each fell more than 2% in early Asian trade Monday. Traders took profits from the prior week's gains while awaiting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's 2 p.m. ET press conference detailing new sanctions on Iran and its oil customers.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US LNG exports hit record 73M tons YTD through July amid global supply disruptions, supporting Henry Hub near $2.73.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.758 |
-0.5%
-0.015 |
-23.4% |
+4.7% |
-27.5% |
US LNG exports face test from rising global prices
Gavin Maguire ·
Reuters · Mon, Aug 24, 2026
U.S. LNG producers exported over 73 million tons from January through July 2026, up 23% from the same period in 2025 per Kpler data. Geopolitical disruptions including the U.S.-Iran conflict have cut Qatari LNG flows by over 60%, pushing European and Asian forward prices above $21 to 22/MMBtu for Q4. Elevated prices risk softening near-term buyer demand in Asia and Europe as seasonal cooling eases and renewables displace gas-fired power, though U.S. exporters benefit from prior record volumes.
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EIA reports 16 Bcf storage injection last week
Working gas in storage reached 3,169 Bcf as of August 14, up 16 Bcf week-over-week and 6.2% above the five-year average. The build came in near consensus expectations of 15 Bcf. Inventories sit 28 Bcf below year-ago levels as strong production offsets summer demand.
Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF hovers near €66/MWh as low EU storage (61% full) and Middle East LNG cuts sustain tight balances ahead of winter refill.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh |
66.50 |
+0.8%
+0.50 |
+136.1% |
+96.9% |
+48.2% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu |
22.74 |
+0.8%
+0.17 |
+136.1% |
+96.9% |
+48.2% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu |
22.94 |
+1.5%
+0.33 |
+138.8% |
+98.6% |
+36.1% |
Uniper inks 15-year Norway gas import deal
Uniper will import over 30 TWh of Norwegian pipeline gas annually from 2027 through 2041. The volume equals nearly 3% of Germany's yearly gas imports, reinforcing Norway's role as Europe's top supplier after Russian flows ended. The long-term contract secures baseload supply amid ongoing global LNG tightness.
Read →
Power
What's moving · ERCOT pauses new data center interconnections for statewide audit amid 474 GW queue dominated by AI loads.
ERCOT targets December completion for Abbott's data center audit.
ERCOT plans to finish verifying and auditing all data center projects in its interconnection queue by Dec. 10, following Gov. Greg Abbott's Aug. 3 directive. The queue holds 474 GW of requests, 90% from data centers. The audit must complete before any projects advance, delaying Batch Zero studies and potentially tightening near-term supply additions in Texas.
Read →
SPP issues Resource Advisory for hot weather uncertainty through Aug. 28.
SPP declared a Resource Advisory for both East and West Balancing Authority Areas effective Aug. 24 at 10 a.m./noon CT through Aug. 28 midnight due to forecast uncertainty, potential high loads, and severe hot weather that could lower wind/solar output. Operators must use extended unit commitment timelines; no public conservation required but reliability procedures activated.
Read →
Coal
What's moving · China coking coal stocks hit 4-year low at 1.65 Mt amid record imports and supply constraints.
China coking coal stocks fall to 4-year low of 1.65 Mt.
Washed coal inventories at 523 sampled Chinese miners fell 8.5% week-on-week to 1.65 million tonnes by August 20, the lowest since November 2021. Frequent safety inspections and constrained domestic output tightened supply. The squeeze supports higher import demand and prices for metallurgical coal.
Read →
China July coking coal imports hit near-record 13.62 Mt.
China imported 13.62 million tonnes of coking coal in July, up 11.8% month-on-month and 41.7% year-on-year for the second-highest monthly volume on record. Average import prices reached $134.8 per tonne, the highest since December 2024. Supply fears from domestic disruptions drove the surge.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Pro Farmer's 173.2 bu/acre U.S. corn yield estimate (vs USDA 180.7) drives corn futures to 3-year high Monday amid Black Sea export curbs.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
520 |
+2.3%
+12 |
+18.2% |
+33.7% |
-4.5% |
| Wheat |
710 |
+1.5%
+11 |
+40.0% |
+40.1% |
-1.1% |
| Soybeans |
1,235 |
-0.4%
-5 |
+19.8% |
+20.4% |
-7.6% |
| Sugar |
17.18 |
-2.4%
-0.43 |
+14.5% |
+4.8% |
-12.3% |
| Coffee |
325.7 |
+0.9%
+3.0 |
-6.6% |
-16.5% |
+77.7% |
| Cocoa |
5,865 |
-2.8%
-169 |
-3.3% |
-26.3% |
+126.4% |
| Cotton |
88.60 |
+0.3%
+0.26 |
+37.9% |
+34.3% |
-7.5% |
Corn hits 3-year high on lower U.S. yield outlook
Peter Hobson ·
Reuters · Mon, Aug 24, 2026
Chicago corn futures rose 2% to $5.18 to 3/4 a bushel, reaching the highest level since August 2023. Pro Farmer's post-tour estimate pegged the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 15.344 billion bushels with a 173.2 bu/acre yield, well below the USDA's August forecast of 180.7 bu/acre after adverse summer weather. Wheat gained on Russia-Ukraine shipping attacks while soybeans eased but held support from export demand.
Read →
Corn surges on Pro Farmer yield cut; soybeans ease
DTN Analysts ·
DTN · Mon, Aug 24, 2026
December corn jumped 9.25 cents as Pro Farmer's Midwest tour estimated a 173.2 bu/acre national yield, far below USDA's 180.7. November soybeans fell 3.5 cents on the tour's record 53.3 bu/acre soybean outlook. Wheat rose on Black Sea export disruptions from ongoing Russia-Ukraine attacks.
Read →
India ends wheat flour export ban immediately
India's government lifted the prohibition on exports of wheat flour, maida, semolina, wholewheat atta and resultant atta effective immediately. The policy shift follows higher domestic stocks and softening prices. It allows freer global shipments of these wheat products.
Read →
Pro Farmer cuts corn yield to 173.2 bu/acre
Pro Farmer Editors ·
Pro Farmer · Fri, Aug 21, 2026
After scouting seven states, Pro Farmer set the national corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre and production at 15.344 billion bushels. Soybean yield came in at 53.3 bu/acre for 4.572 billion bushels. The corn figure sits 7.5 bu below the USDA August estimate, highlighting weather stress impacts.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper falls on LME/SHFE inventory surges easing near-term supply fears while mine risks persist.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,559 |
+0.3%
+37 |
+17.3% |
+47.9% |
+55.2% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) |
14,206 |
+0.5%
+76 |
+11.9% |
+47.7% |
+45.2% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) |
3,130 |
+0.6%
+20 |
+5.2% |
+24.1% |
+14.7% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) |
3,409 |
+1.1%
+38 |
+13.5% |
+24.3% |
+10.3% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) |
17,099 |
+1.1%
+179 |
+1.0% |
+16.0% |
-14.6% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) |
2,123 |
+0.3%
+6 |
-3.7% |
+3.8% |
-3.2% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) |
56,169 |
-0.3%
-156 |
+33.7% |
+73.1% |
+73.2% |
Copper falls as exchange inventories surge, easing supply fears.
Copper futures dropped to around $6.55 per pound on Monday as LME stocks hit 238,575 tons and SHFE stocks jumped 28.4% to 89,548 tons. The inflows narrowed the cash-to-three-month premium, signaling better near-term availability. Zijin Mining flagged potential 57,000-ton output loss at Kamoa-Kakula from flooding, underscoring ongoing mine supply risks.
Read →
SMM reports daily gains in copper, aluminum, zinc and lithium prices.
SMM assessed 1# copper cathode at $16,022.35 per tonne, up $22; A00 aluminum at $3,532, up $19; 0# zinc at $3,833, up $27; and battery-grade lithium carbonate at $23,819 per tonne, up $1,232. Nickel cathode rose to $19,508 per tonne while tin fell. SHFE copper stocks climbed 19,817 tonnes to 89,548.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel output rebounds while domestic demand stays weak, pressuring iron ore prices near $95/t.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
94.3 |
+1.3%
+1.2 |
-6.4% |
-2.3% |
-34.0% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
398 |
+0.8%
+3 |
+0.9% |
+0.7% |
-47.2% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
434 |
+1.0%
+4 |
+5.4% |
+3.7% |
-46.2% |
China iron ore output falls 8.7% Jan-Jul 2026
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported domestic iron ore production at 536.055 million mt for January-July, down 8.7% year-on-year with July output at 67.148 million mt, a 20% drop. Lower local output supports higher seaborne imports, sustaining demand for Australian and Brazilian 62% Fe fines amid flat benchmark prices around $95 to 96/t.
Read →
China steel output rises 5.8% early August
CISA member mills averaged 1.973 million mt daily crude steel output August 1 to 10, up 5.8% from late July, while finished steel inventories climbed 5.6% to 17.18 million mt. Rising supply during the off-season builds stocks and weighs on rebar and HRC prices despite steady blast-furnace utilization.
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Fortescue makes first hot metal at green project
Fortescue achieved first hot metal production via electric smelting at its Christmas Creek pilot using Pilbara ore and renewable power. The milestone advances commercial-scale green iron output, positioning the miner to supply lower-carbon feedstock for EAF steelmaking and differentiate from traditional blast-furnace routes.
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Shagang cuts rebar list prices Yuan 50/t
Shagang lowered HRB400 16 to 20mm rebar to Yuan 3,250/t EXW and other longs by Yuan 50/t for late August amid soft demand. The move by the top EAF producer signals margin pressure on electric-arc furnaces versus integrated mills as finished steel inventories rise and property-related buying stays muted.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold surges above $4,640/oz to 3-month high on softer dollar and Treasury buyback plans amid U.S. debt concerns.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,639 |
+0.2%
+11 |
+8.4% |
+39.0% |
+159.8% |
| Silver |
68.63 |
-1.3%
-0.90 |
-2.1% |
+77.4% |
+187.3% |
| Platinum |
1,891 |
-0.2%
-4 |
-7.0% |
+42.0% |
+87.4% |
| Palladium |
1,344 |
-0.5%
-6 |
-17.5% |
+23.6% |
-44.9% |
Gold at 3-month high; silver near $68.75/oz.
International gold spot climbed 0.38% above $4,633/oz while silver eased 0.71% to $68.75/oz. Prices reflect broader precious metals strength from dollar weakness and debt-related flows. No major new central-bank or ETF data released in the period.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US unveils $3B+ critical minerals loans including rare-earth-free magnets and graphite to friend-shore supply chains.
Trump announces $3B critical minerals loans for US supply chains
On Aug 7 Trump announced conditional loans totaling $3 billion for critical minerals projects via DoD and Ex-Im Bank. Funds target lithium battery materials, rare-earth-free permanent magnets at Niron Magnetics, Australian scandium, Arizona copper, Alabama graphite, and mining education. The move aims to cut reliance on Chinese processing for defense and energy sectors amid geopolitical tensions.
Read →
Energy Fuels terbium oxide qualified by major Japan magnet maker
Energy Fuels announced its terbium oxide from Utah's White Mesa Mill passed full qualification for commercial use by one of Japan's largest rare-earth permanent magnet manufacturers outside China. The approval requires no further validation and advances non-Chinese supply for magnets used in EVs, robotics, aerospace and defense. It follows prior qualifications for neodymium-praseodymium and dysprosium products.
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China requires export licenses for dysprosium and terbium
China placed export controls on dysprosium and terbium along with other medium and heavy rare earths, requiring corresponding export licenses. The measures continue to constrain global supply of these heavy rare earths critical for high-performance permanent magnets.
Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz transits plunge below 20 ships over weekend amid Iran-US blockades, spiking VLCC earnings to record levels near $585k/day.
23-year-old VLCC sells for record $57 million
The 2003-built 300,000 dwt Hellstugutinden changed hands over the weekend for $57 million, the latest sign of surging demand for vintage non-sanctioned tonnage. Arrow assessed Middle East Gulf-China VLCC earnings at the equivalent of $584,505 per day on Friday. Strong spot rates and high newbuilding costs are driving exceptional secondhand values even for older clean-history vessels.
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VLCC rates surge with TD3C at WS570, TCE near $585k/day
Baltic Exchange tanker assessments for the week ending Aug 21 showed the TD3C Middle East Gulf-China VLCC route rising 88 points week-on-week to WS570, equating to roughly $585,000 per day round-trip TCE. Suezmax routes such as Nigeria-UK Continent climbed to WS328.89 with TCEs above $165,000/day, while Aframax and clean product segments also firmed across multiple basins. The gains reflect tight tonnage and sustained demand amid chokepoint disruptions.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs hover near 82 EUR/t amid free allowance distributions and RIN deadline extension talks.
Investors dominate shrinking RGGI allowance surplus post-Q2 auction.
Market monitor reports show investors held most of the RGGI surplus allowances at end-Q2 2026, expected to shrink further by compliance deadline, while compliance entities increased holdings after the June auction. This shift signals tightening compliance demand ahead of future periods in the northeastern US power-sector carbon market.
Read →
EPA extends Sept. 1 RFS compliance deadline for refiners amid high RIN costs.
The EPA announced it will extend the September 1 deadline for refiners to demonstrate 2025 biofuel blending compliance under the Renewable Fuel Standard, citing the need for stability amid record RIN prices. The agency also plans to decide all pending small-refiner waiver requests by end-August, potentially freeing 1.2 to 1.8 billion RINs and easing multibillion-dollar compliance pressures.
Read →
EUAs surge to two-week high then ease, closing week up 1%.
European carbon allowances rose sharply mid-session to a two-week high on aggressive buying before pulling back as reports emerged of EU member states distributing 2026 free allowances. The Dec-2026 contract posted a net 1% weekly gain near 82 EUR/t levels.
Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Tokenized gold nears $5B as RWA commodities hit records amid regulatory momentum on Hyperliquid.
Digital gold stirs amid regulatory and market shifts
Bitcoin volatility hit decade lows while tokenized commodities advanced with gold extending rallies. President Trump highlighted CFTC efforts to onshore Hyperliquid for compliant U.S. trading of perpetual futures including commodities. This positions on-chain commodity markets for broader institutional access beyond traditional hours.
Read →
Trump: CFTC working to onshore Hyperliquid
President Trump stated CFTC Chair Michael Selig is advancing efforts to bring Hyperliquid onshore in a fully compliant manner. The move targets the platform's 24/7 perpetual futures on oil, gold, and other commodities. Traditional exchanges like CME raised concerns over manipulation risks in these on-chain markets.
Read →
RWA market nears $40B as commodities reach $4.88B
Tokenized RWAs approached $40 billion with commodities at $4.88 billion distributed value, led by Tether Gold. Ethereum dominates tokenized commodity networks. Growth reflects diversification beyond Treasuries into gold and other on-chain exposures despite regulatory delays on innovation exemptions.
Read →
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Uniper signs 15-year gas import deal with Equinor for >30 TWh/year from 2027.
Exxon, Lyondell eye Shell's $8B US chemical assets
Shell has attracted bids from ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, Apollo and Kuwait Petroleum for its U.S. chemical assets valued at up to $8 billion. The move aligns with Shell's strategy to divest underperforming plants and refocus on core operations. A sale would mark a major corporate portfolio shift in petrochemicals.
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Ampol posts record A$857M half-year profit on refining surge
Ampol reported underlying net profit after tax of A$857.2 million for the first half, up nearly five-fold year-on-year. Record earnings stemmed from sharply higher refining margins and trading gains amid Middle East supply disruptions. Statutory net profit reached A$1.36 billion versus a prior-year loss.
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Sinopec H1 profit rises 19.3% to 25.63B yuan despite war
Sinopec posted net profit of 25.63 billion yuan for the first half, a 19.3% year-on-year increase. Growth occurred despite the Iran conflict and weaker domestic fuel demand, though the firm recorded a 16 billion yuan inventory write-down. Results were filed Sunday at the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
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Norway to drill Barents Sea oil and gas despite EU moratorium push
Norwegian Energy Minister Terje Aasland stated the country will develop Barents Sea oil and gas resources irrespective of EU policy on Arctic drilling. Norway aims to maintain steady petroleum output through at least 2035. The comments come as the EU considers its stance on new Arctic hydrocarbon projects.
Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US Treasury Secretary Bessent set to unveil 'economic D-Day' Iran sanctions today, pressuring oil supply via Hormuz.
Bessent readies 'economic D-Day' Iran sanctions
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will detail sweeping new sanctions on Iran at a Monday press conference, building on threats of 'toughest sanctions in history' against oil buyers and facilitators. Iran warned of a 'devastating' response and potential export halt. The measures target secondary sanctions and aim to isolate Tehran's energy revenues.
Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
EU eyes windfall tax on oil profits from Hormuz disruption
Finance ministers from Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Poland, and Austria want an EU-wide tax on oil firms' windfall profits linked to Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade. They requested it be added to the September finance ministers' meeting agenda in Dublin. Traders see this as a potential policy response to sustained energy market volatility from the ongoing disruptions.
Read →
Agri commodities hit 10-year highs on energy costs
Macro trader Tavi Costa highlighted agricultural commodities reaching their highest levels in a decade, driven by rising energy prices feeding into food costs. Discussions note potential knock-on inflation effects that could pressure central banks like the Fed. Traders warn this creates broader inflation risks beyond energy alone.
Read →
Yemen's Ansarullah hits Saudi oil tanker in Red Sea
Reports indicate Yemen's Ansarullah group likely struck a Saudi-linked oil tanker, with their naval blockade against Saudi ports in the Red Sea still active. This adds to ongoing Red Sea and Hormuz shipping risks affecting global oil flows. Traders monitor for further escalation impacting tanker routes and premiums.
Read →
Soft commodities poised for breakout after long bases
Macro analyst notes soft commodities such as rice and wheat have formed enormous bases since the 2008 peak and could surge if energy prices break higher. Rising energy, fertilizer, and transport costs are expected to push food prices up, creating political risks for governments. Traders emphasize exposure to agricultural land as a hedge.
Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Struyven: Hedge crude swings with diesel
Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs Co-Head of Global Commodities Research, told Bloomberg that potential new US sanctions on Iran triggered only modest oil price gains. He attributed this muted reaction to the fact that the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports and oil exports is already limiting Iranian crude from reaching buyers.
Watch/Listen →
McNally: Refining has no margin for error
Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, warned on Bloomberg that the global crude refining system has no margin for error. Pressures stem from stepped-up Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries combined with US refineries operating near full capacity amid the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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