Last price as of Wed, Aug 19, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Cocoa down $85 (-1.4%) on improved West African growing conditions. Silver down $0.85 (-1.3%) on broad metals retreat amid surging bond yields. JKM up $0.27 (+1.2%) on tighter Asian LNG supply amid regional demand. Tin (SHFE $/mt) down $599 (-1.1%) on broad metals decline. Crude up $0.97 (+1.1%) on prolonged Hormuz export uncertainty. Distillate (diesel, jet) cracks exploding higher above $100. Supertanker rates hit near $510k/day on Hormuz route. The crisis today is at its worst state (retail prices, shipping rates) in terms of prices for everything except crude. Coffee down $3.4 (-1.0%) on improved global supply expectations.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs flags long oil via calendar spreads on persistent Hormuz disruptions drawing down inventories.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Private equity firm KKR offered roughly $9 billion, or $42.50 a share, to acquire UGI Corp., a Pennsylvania-based natural gas and electricity distributor that operates AmeriGas propane. The bid values the company at a premium to its recent market capitalization of around $7.5 billion. Read →
Brent crude futures climbed 0.8% to $91.71 a barrel and WTI rose 0.9% to $85.70 as conflicting U.S. and Iranian statements on Strait of Hormuz access weighed on markets for a fourth straight day. Shipping traffic through the key waterway slowed, with Iraq approving alternative export routes starting September 1. Read →
Ninety-nine proposed natural gas power plants for data centers would emit about 318 million metric tons of CO2 annually at standard utilization rates, equal to roughly 20% of last year’s total U.S. power sector emissions of 1.485 billion tons. Read →
U.S. Energy Under Secretary Kyle Haustveit said more than 500,000 barrels per day, about half of Venezuela’s current 1.25 million bpd output, is flowing to U.S. refiners built for its heavy crude. Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA expects output to reach 1.245 million bpd by end-August. Read →
Global diesel demand is outpacing available supply as Russia export cuts and Middle East disruptions tighten refined product markets, pushing U.S. refiners to prioritize exports while their own inventories run unusually low. Read →
Oil futures advanced in early Asian trade after Iran fired ballistic missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, with one hitting a bulk carrier east of Oman. ANZ Research noted renewed attacks raise prospects of ongoing supply disruptions. Front-month WTI traded 0.5% higher near $85.34 per barrel. Read →
Chen Aizhu, Siyi Liu · Reuters · Tue, Aug 18, 3:55 AM ET
COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping have kept VLCCs out of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb since late July, shifting to ship-to-ship transfers at Fujairah and Omani ports. The two firms previously handled about half of China's Middle East crude imports excluding Iranian barrels. Oman-China voyage freight rates reached $140,000 per day with margins near $110,000 versus $30,000-$40,000 pre-conflict. Read →
Saudi Aramco restarted loadings from terminals inside the Strait of Hormuz last week with multiple VLCCs active at Ras Tanura and more vessels queued. The company offered prompt spot cargoes of Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades. Traders noted potential use of the Saudi fleet to lift additional volumes. Read →
Iraq's cabinet approved a three-month mechanism starting September 1 allowing exports through specialized local and international companies via multiple outlets. The move aims to diversify channels and maintain flexibility amid Hormuz disruptions. Iraq's daily exports have averaged around 2 million barrels since early August. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Texas heat wave lifts US natural gas futures as power demand surges in South.
Intense, prolonged heat in Texas drove higher air-conditioning use and electricity demand, pressuring gas-fired power plants. US natural gas futures rose on the increased power-sector burn. The move came amid record Lower-48 production that capped broader price gains. Read →
Weather models added heat to the near-term forecast, supporting prices while LNG feedgas flows recovered. Futures settled up 3.2% at $2.776 per mmBtu. High production and storage overhang kept the market range-bound despite the demand lift. Read →
New pipelines from the Permian Basin increased flows to Henry Hub, keeping benchmark prices low despite summer heat. Spot prices at Henry Hub hovered near $2.68 per mmBtu. Waha hub prices rose from negative levels to about $2 as more gas egress opened. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises to €62.6/MWh as EU storage hits 61% but lags norms amid steady Norwegian flows.
EU gas storage stood at 60.8% of capacity as of Aug. 15 per GIE data. The level trails five-year seasonal norms by roughly 9-21 percentage points. Slower refill raises winter supply risks and supports higher TTF prices ahead of peak demand. Read →
S&P Global Platts published preliminary daily assessments for natural gas benchmarks including JKM and TTF for Aug. 18 trade date. The update provides market participants with latest spot price signals. JKM traded near $21.89/MMBtu while TTF front-month futures settled around €62.58/MWh. Read →
Asia's JKM LNG marker advanced 1.25% to $21.89 per MMBtu on Aug. 18. The move widens the JKM-TTF spread and signals firmer Asian demand or tighter spot supply. Higher Asian prices can pull flexible LNG cargoes away from Europe. Read →
Dutch TTF front-month futures settled at €62.58/MWh on Aug. 18, up from prior session. Price action reflects ongoing storage injection pace and European supply fundamentals. Norwegian pipeline deliveries remain a key steady source supporting the complex. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM power prices triple amid heat wave and surging data-center demand.
UK CPI rose to 2.9% YoY in July from 2.6%, matching forecasts, driven by a 13% increase in the energy price cap that lifted household bills. The jump ended a period of lower inflation and was only partly offset by cheaper motor fuel. A separate Bloomberg report flagged household energy costs heading toward a three-year high. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Chinese coking coal futures surge 15% this week on Shanxi supply crunch after May mine disaster.
Dalian coking coal futures rose 15% this week to 1,583.50 yuan ($235) per ton, the highest since October 2024. The surge follows ongoing safety inspections in Shanxi province, which produces about half of China’s coking coal, after a deadly May mine accident. Tight stockpiles tighten supply for steelmaking coal amid persistent post-disaster restrictions. Read →
Indian steelmakers import 95% of coking coal needs and face rising costs as premium hard coking coal averaged $236 per ton FOB Australia in the first seven months of 2026, up 25% year-on-year. Supply disruptions in Australia, the Shanxi accident effects, and the Iran conflict drive prices higher. Every $10 per ton rise in coking coal adds $7-9 per ton to steelmaking costs with limited ability to pass them on due to cheap Chinese steel competition. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Soybean futures climb on US yield doubts and Chinese demand as sugar hits 1-year high on supply concerns.
Chicago soybean futures rose for a third session on weather and crop data raising Midwest yield concerns. The most-active contract hit $12.24-1/2 per bushel, supported by firm crude oil and Chinese demand. Wheat held steady amid Black Sea supply disruptions. Read →
Argentina shipped a record 5.14 million metric tons of corn in July, the Rosario grains exchange reported. The bumper 2025/26 crop is now estimated at 70.5 million tons despite wet weather delaying harvest, which was 89% complete. This strengthens Argentina as a key global supplier ahead of Northern Hemisphere harvests. Read →
US sugar futures climbed above 17 cents per pound, the highest since May 2025, up 3.56% on the day. Gains stem from worsening global supply deficits and unfavorable weather in key producers. Coffee also rose sharply to 332.45 USd/Lbs. Read →
Scouts on the 2026 Pro Farmer Crop Tour measured South Dakota corn yield potential at 149.09 bu/acre, down 14.4% from 2025. Soybean pod counts averaged 945.98 per 3x3 square, down 20.4% year-over-year. The tour continues across the Corn Belt amid mixed conditions. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME copper inventories surge over 20,000 tons on Trafigura deliveries, easing historic squeeze and pressuring prices.
Readily available LME copper inventories rose more than 20,000 tons on Tuesday, the largest daily increase since April, with Trafigura responsible for a significant share. Copper three-month prices held losses near $13,976/t in Shanghai trade after recent record highs driven by arbitrage ahead of potential US tariffs. The inflows relieve a historic supply squeeze while Chile output faces ongoing disruptions. Read →
Fastmarkets pricing team · Fastmarkets · Tue, Aug 18, 2026
Fastmarkets launched a monthly FCA Europe low-carbon copper cathode premium assessment on August 18 with a 1.5 tCO2e per tonne Scope 1-3 limit on Grade A cathode. The move responds to rising demand from automotive and wire/cable buyers seeking emissions data. It layers the low-carbon premium atop the standard LME cash price for greater transparency in sustainable copper trading. Read →
Traders delivered substantial copper volumes to LME warehouses, driving the biggest one-day stock increase since April and easing a prolonged physical squeeze. Trafigura accounted for a major portion of inflows amid wide spreads and tariff-related positioning. The development caps recent price gains while broader base metals face macro headwinds from higher yields and oil. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel output fell to 76.93 Mt in July, lowest this year, while iron ore prices hold steady near $95/t amid steady imports.
China's crude steel production fell to 76.93 million metric tons in July, down 3.6% year-on-year and the lowest July since 2017, with year-to-date output down 3.1%. Construction demand remains weak due to property woes, but vehicle manufacturing and exports provide some offset. Iron ore imports rose 6% in the first seven months to 736.84 Mt and prices stayed steady between $93-100/t, with SGX at $95.10 on Monday. Read →
Eunice Ouyang · SteelOrbis · Wed, Aug 19, 9:44 AM ET
China's steel bar exports totaled 11.93 million mt in January-July, up 12.3% year-on-year, with July alone up 20.9%. Wire rod exports fell 5.2% over the period. Finished steel exports rose 2.9% in July, driven by infrastructure demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Read →
BHP CEO Brandon Craig stated China's iron ore demand remains steady, supported by manufacturing activity. He noted stronger Indian demand for metallurgical coal as an additional positive factor for the market. Read →
Inventories of imported iron ore at China's 47 major ports tracked by Mysteel dropped 791,800 tonnes or 0.5% week-on-week to 174.22 million tonnes by August 13 due to typhoon disruption. Stocks remained 21.1% above year-ago levels despite the dip. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold edges higher on easing yields ahead of Fed minutes as silver and palladium slip.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,342.33/oz in early Asian trade after Tuesday's nearly 2% drop. Yields eased from highs while traders await Fed minutes due at 2 p.m. ET; silver fell 0.5% to $62.99/oz, platinum rose 0.3%, palladium lost 0.3%. Read →
Front-month gold futures settled 1.17% lower at $4,366/oz and silver lost 3.3% to $63.941/oz amid a bond selloff pushing Treasury yields to multi-year highs. Demand remains resilient per Bank of America but ETF inflows needed for breakout. Read →
Spot gold traded at $4,369.08/oz, down 0.21% from prior close of $4,378.38. Prices fell 0.82% over the past week amid shifting inflation expectations and central bank policy signals. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US DOE awards $162M to recover rare earths, antimony and other critical minerals from mine waste and industrial sources.
The U.S. Department of Energy selected nine projects for $162 million in funding to recover scandium, copper, antimony, rare earth elements and other critical materials from mine tailings, industrial byproducts and existing facilities. Recipients include Felix Gold’s Alaska antimony project and MIT spinout SiTration for copper and rare earth recovery from waste streams. The awards advance the Trump administration’s push to diversify U.S. supply chains away from China-dominated sources. Read →
Cecilia Jamasmie · Mining.com · Tue, Aug 18, 2026
The DOE selected nine projects totaling $162 million to advance technologies for extracting critical minerals including rare earths and antimony from mine waste and industrial feedstocks at bench- and pilot-scale sites. Companies such as Anactisis, Still Bright, Nusano, SiTration, Thompson Creek Metals, Felix Gold, DISA Technologies, Alcoa and Trigg Minerals are involved. The funding de-risks commercial production and supports domestic supply security for energy, defense and manufacturing. Read →
The global rare earth market is bifurcating into a Chinese domestic market, a restricted Chinese export market and an emerging non-Chinese supply chain market with distinct pricing. Western buyers must now account for conversion costs, qualification, provenance and supply security rather than relying on Chinese oxide quotes. The MP Materials $110/kg NdPr oxide price floor sets a precedent that sustainable Western prices will exceed Chinese benchmarks due to these added factors. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz uncertainty drives VLCC tanker rates higher while BDI slips 2.2% to 2,815 on Aug 18.
Only six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday versus a 10-day average of 11. President Trump asserted the waterway is open while Iran maintains it remains shut, with most owners avoiding transits. Chinese majors COSCO and CMES have routed tankers outside the Gulf for loadings. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU carbon prices rose 0.89% to €82.31 as energy prices and geopolitics lift EUA amid ETS reform signals.
Canada's biggest oil producers target a final investment decision by late 2027 on the 6 Mt Pathways CO2 pipeline and storage hub. Fiscal agreements with Alberta and federal governments are expected by mid-November. The project aims to cut oil sands emissions while supporting production growth. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Tokenized gold sees 92% deposit surge on Aave to $76.7M as XAUT turns into active DeFi collateral.
Yash Jain · Coinpedia · Tue, Aug 18, 2026, 12:13 PM ET
XAUT deposits on Aave rose from $40M in early June to $76.7M. Users now deposit the gold token as collateral to borrow USDT or USDC, turning static holdings into working capital. Aave holds over half of all tokenized gold in DeFi lending, with platform stablecoin utilization at 82.5%. Read →
Philippine bank RCBC and crypto exchange PDAX signed an MOU to integrate tokenized gold into RCBC mobile banking. The partnership starts with gold tokenization to enable fractional ownership for retail clients. It remains subject to regulatory approval and further development. Read →
Nado launched XAUT0 support for spot trading and unified margin across crypto, equity, commodity, and FX perps. Tokenized gold backed 1:1 by physical bullion now serves as collateral in a single account. The move expands RWA utility on the Ink-built platform. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · BHP's record copper earnings and $1.72 dividend drive mining complex amid oil tanker rates near $510k/day on Hormuz risks.
Equinor agreed to acquire a 17.4% interest in Chevron subsidiary Harmattan Energy's PEL 90 licence in Namibia's Orange Basin. The deal gives Equinor its first entry into Namibia and access to a drill-ready prospect with testing scheduled for 2026. Value was not disclosed. Read →
Earnings for supertankers on the Persian Gulf-to-Asia route neared a two-month high of $510,000 per day as exporters seek more vessels amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. A VLCC fixture loaded crude for east Asia at $31 million per voyage. Rates reflect heightened demand and security risks from Iran-related tensions. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump pauses 50% Canada tariffs for three days after tentative deal, averting immediate hit on $20B goods.
President Trump announced a three-day pause on 50% tariffs set to hit billions in Canadian imports at midnight, citing a tentative deal subject to document finalization. The levies targeted goods like dairy, alcohol and vehicles regardless of USMCA status. The move eases immediate pressure on cross-border commodity and energy-related trade flows while talks continue. Read →
Trump halted new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods hours before they took effect, announcing a deal on Truth Social. Canadian PM Mark Carney noted substantial progress but said important work remains on issues including dairy, alcohol and autos. Negotiators discussed market access, economic security and possible Keystone XL revival amid broader USMCA tensions. Read →
President Trump paused 50% tariffs scheduled for certain Canadian goods, set to affect about 5% of exports to the US. The action followed late-night social media announcement of a deal while negotiations continue. The pause prevents immediate escalation in a dispute involving dairy, beverages and vehicles. Read →
The CFTC published a proposed rulemaking amending Part 4 regulations to ease registration for commodity pool operators and trading advisors. Changes include an exemption for certain SEC-registered advisers serving sophisticated investors and an inflation-adjusted increase to the small-pool exemption threshold. The agency aims to reduce duplicative rules while maintaining market integrity; comments due in 45 days. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders in r/oil discuss Brent rising above $90 and WTI near $84 amid US-Iran war developments, Trump rejecting talks, and reports of minimal tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Posts highlight diesel crack spreads exceeding $100/bbl due to supply disruptions and concerns over low US strategic reserves risking salt cavern damage. The topic dominates daily price threads with warnings of potential $170 diesel crisis and broader energy market volatility. Read →
Retail and trader discussions focus on Jeff Currie's note that the real crisis is $170 diesel rather than $91 Brent, with US distillate stocks sinking further. Users link it to ongoing Hormuz issues, reduced Russian fuel availability, and physical market tightness not fully reflected in front-month prices. The surge in crack spreads signals acute refining and supply chain stress for energy traders. Read →
X traders post frequent technical analysis and signals for XAUUSD around 4360-4377, with sell targets at 4345-4325 and notes on recent recovery from 4330-4340 support. Discussions emphasize resistance zones, CHoCH patterns, and potential for continuation or pullback amid broader commodity volatility. Retail voices highlight gold's recent strength but watch for reversals tied to dollar and yield moves. Read →
r/oil users debate Fortune reporting on depleted US SPR levels endangering underground salt caverns used for storage, amid ongoing Iran-related supply concerns and low outbound Hormuz traffic. Traders note this adds structural risk to physical oil availability beyond headline geopolitical spikes. The thread ties into wider worries about unpriced shortages in the market. Read →
Discussions highlight reports of Russian fuel availability dropping sharply to 28%, down from 41% the prior week, linked to broader energy market strains and sanctions impacts. Traders connect this to potential ripple effects on global supply and pricing, especially with Hormuz tensions limiting alternatives. The post sparks comments on physical market realities versus futures pricing. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Kevin Book highlights that tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain below pre-disruption levels, sustaining supply concerns in the energy markets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Watch/Listen →
Bloomberg Intelligence commodities analyst Mike McGlone joins the Aug 17 episode discussing oil market movements higher amid Hormuz risks and related factors. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.