Last price as of Thu, Aug 20, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Cocoa down $210 (-3.5%) on exceptional growing conditions fostering new flowering in Ivory Coast and Ghana ahead of main crop harvest. Cotton up $2.70 (+3.2%) on deteriorating US crop conditions with good-to-excellent ratings falling to 38%. Crude up $2.07 (+2.5%) with only nine commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, unchanged from Tuesday. Trump stated no talks were occurring and the strait was open, while Iran maintained it remained shut. Bab el-Mandeb Red Sea traffic eased to 27 vessels from 32 on Tuesday, tightening crude. Nat Gas (US Henry Hub) down $0.055 (-2.0%) on strong Lower 48 production at 111.6 bcfd and comfortable US inventories. Meanwhile Europe (TTF) and Asia (JKM) nat gas prices higher to double price levels from 2 years ago on low storage in EU and Asia. Sugar up $0.31 (+1.8%) on revised global 2026/27 deficit forecasts from analysts including Covrig and Green Pool. Nickel (SHFE $/mt) up $257 (+1.5%) on broader metals rally with SHFE nickel gaining over 1%.
Kicker: Buy October NY sugar futures and sell October London white sugar futures on widening NY-London arb amid Brazil ethanol shift, per recent ag desk commentary.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent crude futures for October delivery rose 35 cents to $91.97 a barrel on Thursday amid stalled US-Iran talks and reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI also gained for a fifth straight session as attacks and tensions tighten Middle East supplies. US distillate inventories fell for a third week while crude stocks rose more than expected. Read →
Global importers face tighter wheat supplies after Russia-Ukraine attacks shuttered Black Sea grain terminals and delayed dozens of cargoes in peak season. Chicago futures have surged more than 17% since early July, with buyers shifting to higher-priced Australian, US and Argentine origins. Egypt and Indonesia are among nations at risk of disruptions. Read →
Copper traded above $14,000 a ton after the US Treasury ramped up purchases of long-dated debt to curb yields. The move supported prices as a short-term supply squeeze began easing. Traders assessed the intervention's impact on the metal amid ongoing supply issues. Read →
Gold stayed near $4,500 an ounce after surging over 4% Wednesday on the US Treasury's surprise ramp-up in long-dated bond buybacks that lowered yields. The intervention weakens the dollar and boosts non-yielding bullion appeal. Prices held the bulk of the prior session's gains. Read →
Palm oil reached its highest level in about 20 months as Indonesia's B50 biofuel mandate diverts more supply to fuel and El Niño risks curb output. Indonesia is the world's top producer. Rising biofuel demand underpins the price surge. Read →
Brent for October climbed $1.20 to $92.82 a barrel and the active October WTI contract rose $1.13 to $85.52 in the session. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since late July on the fifth consecutive gain. Traders cite ongoing U.S.-Iran standoff and risks to Gulf exports as the key support. Read →
Global oil supply is now projected to fall 4.3 mb/d in 2026 after renewed Hormuz disruptions cut July Gulf output recovery. Observed inventories plunged 69 mb in July, or 2.2 mb/d, with most of the draw from oil on water. Product cracks and refining margins hit record highs in Europe amid tighter distillate markets. Read →
U.S. commercial crude inventories increased 4.4 million barrels for the week ending August 14 to levels 6% below the five-year average. Refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day at 97.2% utilization. Distillate stocks declined while gasoline production rose to 9.7 million barrels per day. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Hotter Texas forecasts and power demand lift Henry Hub futures above $2.80, highest since late July.
US natural gas prices climbed above $2.80/MMBtu, their highest level since July 24. Hotter short-term outlooks, including Houston averaging 100°F from Aug. 20-23, drove the move by boosting cooling demand and power-sector gas burn. Abundant Lower 48 production near 111.5 Bcf/d and storage surpluses capped further gains. Read →
September futures surged past $2.80/MMBtu early Wednesday. Hotter overnight weather trends and a modest production decline strengthened the near-term setup ahead of the EIA storage report. Traders focused on resilient mid-August cooling demand. Read →
Front-month NYMEX natural gas for September delivery rose 3.80 cents, or 1.37%, to settle at $2.8140/MMBtu. The contract posted its largest two-day gain since Aug. 10 and its highest settlement since July 24. Gains came amid hotter weather outlooks despite record production levels. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF at €63.4/MWh on low EU storage at 57% and summer heat boosting power demand.
Dutch TTF futures reached about €63.7/MWh on August 18, up roughly 120% since the start of 2026. EU storage stood at just 57.1% full on August 1, the lowest for that date in the historical series. Record summer heat is raising electricity demand while curbing hydro and nuclear output, forcing more gas-fired generation and slowing storage injections ahead of winter. Read →
European households face higher energy bills as natural gas prices sit at twice year-ago levels with the Iran conflict unresolved. The newsletter highlights ongoing supply risks from the Middle East situation keeping pressure on European benchmarks like TTF. Read →
Power
What's moving · MISO overtakes PJM as US's largest grid by capacity on solar surge.
BloombergNEF reports MISO, serving 45 million people across 15 Midwest states, surpassed PJM in installed electric supply capacity due to rapid solar additions in states like Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois. PJM previously led until last year. The shift comes amid rising demand from data centers and manufacturing, with solar and storage driving most new US capacity additions. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Yancoal reports record H1 2026 coal output and 29% EBITDA jump as realized prices rise 3%.
Yancoal delivered record attributable saleable coal production of 19.8 Mt in H1 2026, up 5% YoY, with revenue rising 13% to AUD 3.01 billion and operating EBITDA climbing 29% to AUD 767 million. Realized prices increased 3% to AUD 154/t overall (thermal +3% to AUD 143/t, met +4% to AUD 216/t) while cash costs rose only 3% to AUD 96/t despite higher diesel. The miner cut full-year capex guidance by AUD 150 million and is on track for upper-half production guidance. Read →
Exxaro's coal production rose 11% to 21.5 Mt and total sales 4% to 19.9 Mt in H1 2026, with export volumes surging 15% to 3.9 Mt amid improved rail performance and API4 prices up 15% YoY to US$105.78/t. Group revenue increased 7% to R22.1 billion while EBITDA held steady at R5.6 billion despite inflation; the company declared a R7/share interim dividend. Export gains benefited from India and Japan demand plus higher-margin RB1 coal mix. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Corn futures top $5/bu on Pro Farmer Crop Tour yields below USDA estimates and strong exports.
Corn futures hit $5 per bushel for the first time in 18 months after Pro Farmer Crop Tour results showed yields in top states Iowa and Illinois below last year and the three-year average. The findings add to supply concerns following USDA's August yield cut and reinforce tight balances from record export pace. Read →
USDA added 1.4 million soybean acres in its August Crop Production report and cut yield to 52.7 bushels per acre. Record crush demand of 2.78 billion bushels and rising exports to 1.66 billion bushels keep supplies tight with a 7% stocks-to-use ratio. Read →
USDA data show corn export inspections at 1.91 million metric tons for the week ending Aug. 13, up 81% year-over-year. Cumulative shipments since Sept. 1 reached nearly 81 million tons, 26% above last year, while soybeans and wheat mixed. Read →
The ERS model forecasts use futures prices and NASS data for season-average prices on corn, soybeans, wheat and upland cotton. The update incorporates latest supply and demand revisions from the August WASDE and Crop Production reports. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper LME cash backwardation eases to $176/ton after 38kt inflows offset squeeze but U.S. tariff arbitrage persists.
Peru's Sunafil launched an investigation into MMG's Las Bambas copper mine after a Tuesday maintenance accident killed two workers and injured three, prompting a temporary suspension. The mine, which produces about 2% of global copper supply, plans a gradual restart on August 21. Las Bambas has a history of community protests and operational halts in Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer. Read →
Andy Home · Reuters · Wed, Aug 19, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
LME copper cash-to-three-month backwardation peaked at $545/ton Monday with cash hitting a record $14,912/ton before easing to $176/ton after 38,150 tons of deliveries, including from China and U.S. sites. Large long positions and low live stocks of 103kt triggered the squeeze around the August prompt date. U.S. tariff expectations continue pulling metal westward, sustaining arbitrage and risk of further volatility. Read →
LME on-warrant copper inventories rose more than 35kt Wednesday, the largest increase since 2024, following a 20kt+ jump Tuesday with Trafigura contributing significantly. The inflows eased a historic squeeze that had cut stocks 75% from April highs, though underlying physical tightness persists amid U.S. premium and China demand dynamics. Read →
SQM reported Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $1.32 billion, beating estimates on record lithium volumes and higher prices, lifting shares 2% in New York. The company raised its 2026 global lithium demand forecast to over 2.1 million metric tons from 1.9 million and outlined $3 billion capex for 2026-2028 focused on Chile projects. It sees stable Q3 prices amid stronger battery storage demand. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP FY26 earnings rose 9% to $9.8B on record WA iron ore shipments amid flat China steel demand.
BHP reported net profit of $9.8 billion for FY ended June 30 2026, up 9% YoY, with revenue up 15% to $58.8 billion. WAIO iron ore production hit a record 291.2 million mt with shipments supporting the result; realized iron ore price rose 3% to $84.56/mt. The iron ore segment delivered $14.5 billion underlying EBITDA. Read →
Samarco posted a Q2 2026 net loss of $328.5 million, narrower than the $1.689 billion loss a year earlier. Pellet sales held steady at 3.9 million mt with average realized price up 1% to $122/mt. The Phase 3 project completed engineering and licensing to restore full 30 million mtpa capacity by 2028. Read →
NMDC reported consolidated net profit of INR 20.05 billion for April-June 2026, up 2% YoY, with total income up 1.5%. Iron ore production rose 26% YoY to 15.12 million mt while sales increased 2% to 11.52 million mt. Read →
China produced 76.93 million mt of crude steel in July, down 3.6% YoY and the weakest July since 2017. Output is expected to rebound in August as mills ease maintenance, though demand stays muted with rebar and HRC stocks elevated. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · US Treasury doubles long-dated bond buybacks, sending yields and dollar lower to lift gold over 3%.
New York gold futures rose 2.1% to $4,516.10/oz in early US trade after the Treasury said it would at least double bond buybacks for longer-dated securities. The moves weakened the dollar and lowered yields ahead of Federal Reserve July meeting minutes. Physical demand from China and steady central bank buying continued to underpin the market. Read →
Gold rallied to its highest since early June, up as much as 3.8% above $4,499/oz, after the Treasury boosted long-dated debt buybacks. The surprise liquidity support drove 30-year bond yields lower and weakened the dollar. The move provided a tailwind for non-yielding bullion amid shifting rate expectations. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US DFC commits $62.8M to African rare earth projects amid private capital reluctance.
The US International Development Finance Corporation committed $62.8 million to rare earth projects in Malawi, Angola, Madagascar and South Africa, with most funding for the Phalaborwa project. Private investors largely avoid these projects due to risk and Chinese market intervention concerns. The funding aims to de-risk assets and build Western-aligned supply chains for magnets in EVs, wind and defense. Read →
United States Antimony shares rose 8% to $5.63 after its board authorized up to $100 million in share repurchases, following a revenue guidance cut. MP Materials held nearly flat at $56.92 while USA Rare Earth slipped 2%. Antimony is a key critical mineral outside China and Russia supply dominance. Read →
China controls over 90% of refining for graphite and rare earth elements plus 60% of global lithium and cobalt. Western dysprosium oxide traded 484% above China prices in July 2026. A new financing approach targets non-Chinese heavy rare earth supply chains. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz traffic stays low at 9 commodity vessels Wednesday amid US-Iran stalemate and conflicting reopening claims.
Kpler tracking recorded nine commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, unchanged from Tuesday. US President Trump stated no talks were occurring and the strait was open, while Iran maintained it remained shut. Bab el-Mandeb traffic also eased to 27 vessels. Read →
The Baltic Exchange dry bulk index fell 63 points or 2.2% to 2,815 on Tuesday. Capesize rates dropped 3% to 4,452 and panamax fell 2.3% to 2,155, both at multi-week lows; supramax edged up 0.2%. The decline ended a two-session advance driven by weaker capesize and panamax earnings. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs hover near 6-month highs at €81-82 amid summer lull and COT-driven moves; CA-Quebec-Washington linkage analyst price outlook emerges.
EU carbon allowances rose early Wednesday on a bullish Commitment of Traders report before giving up gains and settling back in their regular narrow range. Trading stayed quiet with August options expiring and participants awaiting post-holiday resumption. The market remains range-bound near recent levels around €81-82 per tonne. Read →
Analysts project average carbon allowance prices of $34 per tonne in the linked California-Quebec-Washington market for 2027, climbing to $57 by 2035 under the expanded program. The linkage, advancing toward 2027 operations, creates the world's largest sub-national compliance market. Prices are expected to rise over time with tightening caps and growing demand. Read →
President Trump said at a White House event that CFTC Chair Mike Selig is working to bring the decentralized perpetuals platform Hyperliquid into the US in a fully compliant manner. HYPE rose 11% on the comments, which signal regulatory priority for the venue dominant in tokenized equity and commodity perps. The move underscores US efforts to onshore crypto derivatives infrastructure including commodity markets. Read →
President Trump stated US regulators are working to bring Hyperliquid, a fast-growing crypto platform for perpetual futures including tokenized commodities and equities, into the country. The comments at a White House event with crypto executives mark a clear signal for pulling offshore market infrastructure onshore under CFTC oversight. Hyperliquid has seen RWA-linked contracts generate over half its volume in recent weeks. Read →
Deputy chief of the Jakarta Futures Exchange said Indonesia’s planned Strategic Mineral and Commodity Exchange by Jan. 1, 2027, can leverage existing platforms. President Prabowo Subianto announced the bourse last week to build reference prices for key exports and influence global commodity pricing. The effort reflects ongoing government intervention in natural resources markets. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Copper earnings beats and tariff relief on metals drive mining and ag equipment corporate moves.
Glencore, Anglo American and Rio Tinto executives said antitrust and national-interest reviews are intensifying for copper and critical-minerals deals but remain surmountable. They noted longer timelines of 12-18 months yet stressed valuation and shareholder issues outweigh regulatory barriers. The comments followed half-year results and signal continued M&A appetite. Read →
The US is considering cutting tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25% and auto duties from 25% to 15% as part of a trade framework. The changes aim to unlock a broader deal ahead of a Friday deadline. Lower levies would ease costs for metals producers and downstream industries. Read →
Coal India is registering its first overseas trading office in Singapore to diversify into iron ore, lithium and other critical minerals. The hub will support asset acquisitions in Chile, Africa, Canada and Australia. The move follows its recent iron-ore block win and lithium-asset interest in Chile. Read →
Deere & Company will release fiscal Q3 2026 results and host an earnings call at 9 a.m. CT today. Analysts expect EPS near $4.79 on revenue of about $10.78 billion. The ag-equipment maker's print will highlight production agriculture and construction segment performance. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US Section 338 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods take effect today, exempting energy and critical minerals.
President Trump signed three Section 338 proclamations July 20 imposing 50% tariffs on listed Canadian products including dairy, alcoholic beverages and motor vehicles in response to alleged discriminatory Canadian practices. The duties apply even to some USMCA-compliant goods but exempt energy, potash, critical minerals, fish and Section 232-covered items. The measures create new trade frictions for Canadian agricultural and manufactured exports while shielding US energy and mineral supply chains. Read →
The Department of Commerce added 407 derivative product categories to Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, subjecting the metal content of items such as wind turbines, mobile cranes, bulldozers, railcars, furniture and pumps to 50% duties. The expansion targets circumvention and supports domestic steel and aluminum industries. Broader derivative coverage raises costs for downstream equipment and infrastructure sectors reliant on imported components. Read →
The CFTC resolved enforcement actions against former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX co-founder Gary Wang, imposing five-year trading bans and longer registration bans backdated to 2022 with no additional fines due to prior assistance and forfeiture. The resolutions close key chapters in the FTX collapse investigations. They underscore ongoing regulatory scrutiny of commodity derivatives trading platforms and enforcement priorities. Read →
The updated tracker records the August 19 effective date for 50% Section 338 tariffs on specified Canadian goods and outlines provisions in the pending Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 that could authorize up to 500% tariffs on imports from countries buying Russian oil, natural gas or uranium. Exemptions persist for energy and critical minerals in the Canadian action. The developments layer additional trade and sanctions risks onto global energy and commodity flows. Read →
UK officials signaled openness to revisiting the digital services tax following US Trade Representative warnings of 100% tariffs if the levy on US tech firms is not addressed. The move responds to explicit threats tied to broader trade negotiations. Any resolution could ease tensions affecting technology supply chains and related commodity demand while highlighting reciprocal tariff leverage in services and digital sectors. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders highlight US debt-to-GDP at WWII levels but with only 3% gold backing versus nearly 50% historically. Posts discuss how this monetary gap drives gold rallies as safe-haven demand spikes. Matters for gold as it signals structural bull case beyond short-term moves. Read →
Commodity traders note gold reclaiming its 200 SMA as a simple bullish signal. Discussions emphasize the ongoing bull market in precious metals amid broader commodity strength. Matters because it reinforces technical confirmation for higher gold prices. Read →
Retail traders in r/Commodities discuss Commerzbank's bearish silver call at $40. Skepticism arises over whether fundamentals support it amid recent precious metals strength. Matters for silver prices as it sparks debate on over/undervaluation. Read →
r/oil traders highlight US Energy Under Secretary noting half of Venezuela's 1.25M bpd output heads to US refineries. Talks cover export growth and diluent needs. Matters for crude supply dynamics and potential price stability from increased heavy crude flows. Read →
Traders note metals prices +12.6% YoY with precious metals +31.8% and copper +28.7%; fertilizers +13.8%. Links to Iran conflict, heat, and Rhine low-water transport costs. Matters for industrial metals and ag inputs as geopolitical and logistics risks elevate prices. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Currie highlights the massive dislocation where refined product prices signal shortage while crude does not. He points to trapped supplies in Hormuz and refinery issues creating the gap. He is also long gold on resilient central bank demand. Watch/Listen →
Currie argues the situation is a broad commodity story beyond crude. He discusses the foundations of global order and his move into oil and gas assets for cash flow. Watch/Listen →
Hansen examines the commodity space with focus on oil amid fading geopolitical relief. The discussion covers copper dynamics, grains, and equity correction risks. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.