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Wednesday, November 11, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,598
+0.7%
+53 |
Dollar Index
102.47
+0.2%
+0.24 |
EUR/USD
1.1143
-0.2%
-0.0024 |
US 10Y Yield
4.983
+12 bp
|
Last price as of Wed, Nov 11, 5:35 AM ET. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent up $1.86 (+2%) to $93.35 and WTI up $1.12 (+1%) to $87.16 on rebound after Iran de-escalation selloff priced in overly aggressive supply recovery. On the positive price side: reports of tanker attacks, mine strikes, and shipping incidents off Hormuz. Also, tuesday evening US API data showed a larger than expected crude inventory decline.
Ethane down $0.014 (-4%), Butane down $0.070 (-4%) and Propane down $0.041 (-4%) on softer energy complex and petrochemical feedstock demand amid crude weakness.
Aluminium down $113 (-4%) on firmer dollar after hot US CPI, rising Chinese exports and Middle East de-escalation hopes.
Silver up $1.77 (+3%) on bargain hunting after Tuesday's pullback.
Kicker: Saxo sees gold rebounding on potential easing of hawkish Fed expectations if energy prices stay low (Saxo Bank, Nov 11).
Ethane down $0.014 (-4%), Butane down $0.070 (-4%) and Propane down $0.041 (-4%) on softer energy complex and petrochemical feedstock demand amid crude weakness.
Aluminium down $113 (-4%) on firmer dollar after hot US CPI, rising Chinese exports and Middle East de-escalation hopes.
Silver up $1.77 (+3%) on bargain hunting after Tuesday's pullback.
Kicker: Saxo sees gold rebounding on potential easing of hawkish Fed expectations if energy prices stay low (Saxo Bank, Nov 11).
Drivers and the Kicker house view are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
The marquee commodity stories of the day
US natural gas rises on colder weather outlook
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Nov 10, 8:44 AM ET
U.S. natural gas futures added to yesterday’s weather-driven gains as a cold spell forecast for the weekend across the eastern U.S. lifts near-term demand expectations. Nymex natural gas was up 0.9% at $3.246/mmBtu. Read →
Copper rebounds with tech stocks on AI demand
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 9, 10:04 PM ET
Copper extended its rebound from last week’s slump, tracking a rally in technology shares due to the metal’s use in power infrastructure and data centers. It had slumped 2.7% to a three-month low last week on AI regulation concerns after the Democratic midterm sweep. Read →
China crude imports hit highest since March
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 10:37 PM ET
China’s October crude oil imports rose to their highest level since March, official data showed, as the country sharply cut imports earlier amid Middle East disruptions. Imports reached 9.88 million barrels per day, up 9.4% from September. Read →
Saudi Aramco Riyadh office hit in Houthi attack
Reuters · Mon, Nov 10
Saudi Arabia's deputy governor of Riyadh inspected an Aramco administrative building in the capital damaged in an attack by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group. The Houthis claimed responsibility amid stepped-up strikes on Saudi infrastructure. Read →
ExxonMobil signs deal to return to Venezuela
Bloomberg · Tue, Nov 10, 11:20 AM ET
ExxonMobil took a step toward potentially returning to Venezuela almost two decades after its exit, formalizing negotiations with the government about operating one or more oil fields via a non-binding memorandum of understanding with PDVSA. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
1. CFTC Approves U.S. Commodities Firms for Tokenized Assets and Blockchain Records Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Oil prices hit two-month lows as Trump downplays further Iran strikes, easing supply disruption fears.
Cash WTI
90.59 +1.30
Cash Brent
90.99 +1.51
Cash Br–TI
0.40 +0.21
Brent DFL
-0.81 +0.08
Physical cash prices from WetBarrel.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
87.16 | +1.3% +1.12 |
+51.8% | +49.0% | +6.8% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
93.35 | +2.0% +1.86 |
+53.4% | +48.9% | +12.6% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.630 | +0.8% +0.021 |
+54.2% | +34.5% | +13.5% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.224 | +2.2% +0.093 |
+99.2% | +70.2% | +72.6% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
23.29 | -1.0% -0.24 |
+63.9% +9.08 |
-1.5% -0.35 |
+47.8% +7.53 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
90.24 | +3.2% +2.78 |
+185% +58.59 |
+97.3% +44.50 |
+326% +69.05 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
45.60 | +1.7% +0.76 |
+128% +25.58 |
+47.1% +14.60 |
+160% +28.04 |
Oil steadies amid Hormuz attacks and truce hopes
Reuters · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Brent held near $91.68 and WTI near $86 after Tuesday's lows, as continued shipping attacks in the Strait offset de-escalation optimism. US crude stocks likely built 9 million barrels per API data. Russian refining capacity has fallen 30% from recent Ukrainian drone strikes. Read →
Middle East producers cut prices on oversupply
Reuters · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Saudi Arabia and others slashed December crude differentials as Hormuz flows recovered to 10.3 million bpd in October. Global output hit 85 million bpd, above the five-year average. The shift signals a move toward surplus even as inventories remain depleted from prior draws. Read →
Charts of the day
| 1 | China oil imports & stocks Oct 2026via @LSREnergy on X · 42 likesOfficial GACC data chart showing rising oil imports and building stocks in October after September's large drawdown, key for demand outlook |
| 2 | Tanker rates falling Nov 2026via @DrJStrategy on X · 776 likes |
| 3 | China vs UK coal consumption historyvia @EdConwaySky on X · 229 likes |
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Henry Hub futures hold near 3-week high near $3.22/MMBtu on cooler forecasts, record LNG feedgas near 20 bcfd and lower output.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
3.308 | +0.4% +0.012 |
-10.3% | -27.0% | -35.8% |
US natgas holds near 3-week high on near-record LNG exports
Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Front-month December futures rose 0.6 cents to $3.224/MMBtu on forecasts for cooler late-November weather and stronger demand. LSEG data showed Lower 48 output averaging 112.2 bcfd so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October, while LNG feedgas flows remained near records. The moves kept the contract in technically overbought territory for a second day. Read →
US natgas settles at six-week high on cooler forecasts, record LNG exports
Reuters · Mon, Nov 10, 2026
Futures settled at a six-week high after cooler Atlantic seaboard forecasts triggered short covering amid a record hedge-fund short position. Record LNG export plant utilization and a recent drop in Lower 48 production added support. The rally built on Monday’s gains from shifting weather models. Read →
EIA raises November storage forecast after warm start
EIA · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
The November STEO lifted the end-November storage forecast by nearly 70 Bcf to 3,840 Bcf due to milder early-month weather. Henry Hub spot prices are now projected to average $2.87/MMBtu November through March, 16% below the prior outlook. LNG exports are forecast at a record 17.6 bcfd for 2026. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF rises to €86/MWh on EU storage drawdown at 72% full and cold-weather demand amid low Norwegian flows.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
87.05 | +2.7% +2.31 |
+209% | +181% | +16.3% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
28.43 | +2.7% +0.76 |
+209% | +181% | +16.3% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.34 | -0.0% -0.01 |
+226% | +181% | -0.3% |
EU gas storage · gas day Mon, Nov 9
EU gas storage is 72.0% full, 815 TWh in store, 17.2 points below the five-year average for this date and 10.5 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 58.5%, 30.0 points below its five-year average and 16.3 points below a year ago. LNG terminals are 49.8% full and sent out 4,087 GWh, 2% more than the day before.
EU full 72.0% -0.39 pts d/d | Year ago 82.5% | 5-yr avg 89.2% same date |
Germany 58.5% | Year ago 74.8% | 5-yr avg 88.5% same date |
Source: GIE AGSI+ and ALSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
Orlen terminates one QatarEnergy LNG contract over force majeure
Marwa Rashad · Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 10:04 PM ET
Poland's Orlen terminated a 1 mtpa long-term LNG supply contract with QatarEnergy due to ongoing force majeure preventing deliveries from the Iran war disruptions. The contract, due to run until 2034, marks the first known termination of a QatarEnergy long-term deal. Orlen said its other supplies cover needs, underscoring the commercial impact of Middle East supply shortfalls on European buyers. Read →
European gas swings on low storage and Iran conflict outlook
Bloomberg · Tue, Nov 10, 11:09 AM ET
European natural gas prices fluctuated as low storage levels and faster withdrawals countered optimism over potential US-Iran conflict resolution. EU storage sits at 72% full versus a 89% five-year average, with Germany at 59%; net withdrawals jumped nearly sixfold last week on cold demand and lower wind output. LNG loadings from Qatar have picked up but remain constrained. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM data-center load drives capacity shortfalls and backstop delays amid ERCOT interconnection pause and European wind-driven price spikes.
ERCOT adds public text alerts for grid conditions and conservation.
Lana Ferguson · Dallas Morning News · Tue, Nov 10, 2026, evening ET
ERCOT upgraded its Texas Advisory and Notification System to enable public text alerts on grid conditions, conservation notices, and energy emergencies. This improves real-time communication for Texans as data-center-driven load growth strains the system. The change addresses rising demand visibility needs without altering market rules. Read →
PJM tracks 231 GW of data centers; 19.2 GW peak demand by 2030.
Tim Woodruff · Modo Energy · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Modo Energy counts 231 GW of operating and planned data centers across PJM, with 92% still in planning or construction stages. It forecasts 19.2 GW of peak demand addition by 2030 after applying build-probability haircuts. This load growth compounds the 2028/29 capacity auction's 6.8 GW shortfall and $325/MW-day cap clearing, where data centers drove substantial costs per the market monitor. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Indonesian miners seek contract waivers shifting policy risk to Chinese buyers, stalling 2027 thermal coal deals.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
135.75 | +1.3% +1.75 |
+39.3% | +41.0% | -4.4% |
| Newcastle $/t |
140.00 | +1.9% +2.60 |
+32.4% | +25.9% | -5.9% |
China October coal imports fall 6% YoY on high stocks
Reuters · Tue, Nov 10
China’s coal imports totaled 39.43 million tons in October, down 6% from a year earlier and from September, as buyers avoided restocking at elevated prices. Comfortable inventories and expectations of rising domestic supply from Shanxi kept demand muted despite winter approaching. Indonesia shipments remained constrained by low river levels and policy quotas, with full-year imports up just 1% through October. Read →
Raspadskaya loss surges 3.7x on lower output
The Coal Hub · Mon, Nov 9
Russian coking coal producer Raspadskaya posted a net loss of $46.6 million for January-September, up 3.7 times year-over-year, with production falling 21.9% to 11.8 million tons. Weaker results prompted ACRA to downgrade its credit rating to AA with a negative outlook. The company’s struggles reflect broader Russian coal industry pressures from logistics constraints and weak global demand. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · USDA November WASDE cuts U.S. corn yield to 179.6 bu/acre and ending stocks to 1.758B bushels, igniting soybean and corn rallies.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
448 | -0.3% -1 |
+1.7% | +2.9% | -21.4% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
601 | +1.3% +8 |
+18.5% | +12.1% | -26.1% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,225 | -0.2% -3 |
+18.9% | +9.3% | +1.1% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
18.16 | +0.4% +0.07 |
+21.0% | +25.1% | -9.7% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
270.4 | -0.4% -1.0 |
-22.5% | -33.0% | +28.2% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
4,705 | -0.8% -37 |
-22.4% | -16.4% | +89.3% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.78 | +0.1% +0.09 |
+21.8% | +23.7% | -34.0% |
USDA slashes corn yield to 179.6 bu/acre, lifting prices
Ben Potter, Bruce Blythe · Farm Progress · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
USDA cut its 2026/27 U.S. corn yield estimate to 179.6 bushels per acre from October’s 181.2 and analyst expectations near 181.2, dropping production to 15.893 billion bushels. Ending stocks fell to 1.758 billion bushels versus the prior 1.849 billion. December corn futures jumped nearly 10 cents to $4.49 per bushel on the tighter supply outlook. Read →
WASDE tightens corn and soybean U.S. stocks
agriculture.com · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
USDA’s November WASDE lowered corn ending stocks 91 million bushels to 1.758 billion and soybean stocks 15 million to 300 million. December corn settled up 9.75 cents at $4.49 per bushel and December CBOT wheat rose 4.75 cents to $5.9275. Private exporters reported flash sales of 12.3 million bushels corn and 5.5 million bushels soybeans to Mexico. Read →
WASDE report tightens soybean and corn balance sheets
AgroLatam · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
USDA cut corn yield 1.6 bushels per acre to 179.6 and soybean ending stocks to 300 million bushels while raising soybean exports. January soybeans closed up 39.75 cents at $12.28 per bushel and December corn gained 9.75 cents to $4.49. The report reshaped 2026/27 supply expectations for both grains. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Hormuz tanker incidents and Yara-Mosaic $645/t Tampa ammonia settlement drive nitrogen and phosphate tightness.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,742 | +0.2% +3 |
-0.4% | +6.2% | -23.0% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
470.00 | +0.2% +1.00 |
+15.3% | +14.7% | -45.4% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
425.75 | +0.1% +0.25 |
+10.1% | +9.6% | -45.6% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
790.00 | -0.6% -5.00 |
+26.4% | +6.9% | +8.6% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Yara-Mosaic settle Tampa ammonia at $645/t, up $95
Kim Clarksen · Fertilizer Daily · Thu, Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
The November Tampa CFR contract between Yara and Mosaic settled at $645 per tonne, up $95 from October. Rising European natural gas prices and curtailed regional production tightened ammonia supply. Northwest Europe traded at $710 to 730/t CFR while Chinese export ammonia was $510 to 535/t FOB, widening the spread and pressuring import-dependent markets. Read →
Mosaic Q3 loss widens on high sulfur costs, phosphate curtailments
Kim Clarksen · Fertilizer Daily · Tue, Nov 10, 5:00 PM ET
Mosaic reported a wider Q3 adjusted loss of $0.19 per share, missing estimates, with phosphate operating at a $194 million loss versus $102 million earnings a year earlier. Sales volumes fell to 1.4 million tonnes amid ongoing curtailments aligned to affordable sulfur supply. The company secured Q4 sulfur at $615/ton but higher-cost inventory will continue weighing on earnings. Read →
Iran reports tanker mine strike and fire in Hormuz
Supreeta Balasubramanian · Khaleej Times · Wed, Nov 11, 7:27 AM ET
Iran's army stated an oil tanker struck a naval mine and caught fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz on an unauthorized route. The incident adds to recent tanker attacks and mine strikes that have kept commercial traffic severely restricted. Persistent disruptions continue to limit Middle East urea, ammonia and sulfur exports through the chokepoint. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Hotter-than-expected US October CPI sparks rate-hike bets, sending LME copper down 1.3% and SHFE aluminum down 2.7% overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
13,890 | +1.1% +146 |
+11.9% | +23.8% | +43.0% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,247 | -0.1% -17 |
+12.2% | +31.7% | +45.9% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,005 | -3.6% -113 |
+1.0% | +12.6% | +8.1% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,354 | -0.3% -10 |
+11.7% | +20.2% | +0.5% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,160 | -0.8% -135 |
-4.6% | +7.8% | -19.5% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,123 | -0.4% -9 |
-3.6% | -1.8% | -2.5% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
47,084 | +0.5% +252 |
+12.1% | +32.8% | +19.9% |
US CPI beat fuels rate-hike fears, base metals tumble overnight.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
US October CPI rose 0.4% versus 0.3% expected, lifting December Fed rate-hike odds and strengthening the dollar. LME copper fell 1.33% to around $13,712/mt while SHFE aluminum dropped 2.74%; SHFE nickel lost 1.29% and LME nickel 0.86%. All major base metals declined as macro pressure dominated. Read →
US CPI surprise and hawkish Fed signals pressure copper prices.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
LME copper opened at $13,860/mt and closed down 1.27% amid expectations of a December Fed hike or even 50 bp move. Increased imported copper arrivals and supplier selling are expected to pull spot premiums lower. Long liquidation was evident in open-interest data. Read →
Sumitomo cuts FY2026 profit outlook 26% on Philippine nickel impairment.
Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Sumitomo Metal Mining lowered its fiscal 2026 net-profit forecast to ¥161 billion from ¥216 billion after booking a ¥42.6 billion impairment on its Coral Bay Nickel operation in the Philippines, slated for shutdown in FY2028 to 2030. First-half profit rose 67% on higher metal prices, but the smelting segment now faces a full-year loss. Read →
Codelco and Pucobre secure environmental approval for $870M Tovaku copper mine.
Cecilia Jamasmie · The Northern Miner · Mon, Nov 9, 2026
Chile’s Antofagasta Environmental Evaluation Commission approved the Tovaku open-pit project, a 60/40 JV between Pucobre and Codelco, after a 450-day review. The mine is designed for 46,000 tonnes of copper cathode annually over 21 years with production targeted for 2030; it includes a 193 MW solar park with battery storage. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · CMRG iron ore deals and high Chinese port stocks pressure SGX/DCE prices amid weak steel demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
90.7 | -0.1% -0.1 |
-9.9% | -7.6% | +4.5% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
399 | +0.1% +0 |
+1.4% | +4.0% | -37.2% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
417 | +0.3% +1 |
+1.2% | +1.7% | -38.7% |
CMRG deals turn iron ore talks into price events
Mining.com / Bloomberg News · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
State-backed CMRG secured term deals with BHP and Rio Tinto but Fortescue talks drag with product curbs in place. Each negotiation now drives event risk in futures and spot markets as centralized buying gives Beijing leverage over benchmarks, duration and currency. Weak mill margins and elevated port stocks amplify downside pressure on 62% Fe pricing. Read →
China HRC FOB export prices stable near $478 to 485/t
SteelHome · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
HRC export offers held at $478 to 486/t FOB Tianjin amid limited overseas bids and weak Southeast Asian demand. Domestic rebar and HRC spot prices showed little change with rebar near RMB 3,460/t and HRC at RMB 3,220/t. High social inventories and pre-holiday caution limit upside for finished steel and iron ore demand. Read →
DCE iron ore futures edge up on margin relief
SMM / World Ports Organization · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
DCE most-traded contract closed at 672.5 yuan/mt, up 0.15%, while SGX benchmarks rose modestly with the 61% seaborne index at $89.40/dmt. Import margins turned positive to CNY 6/t on lower freight and firmer port spots, but divergent domestic vs seaborne moves and 10-port stocks rising 0.62% WoW cap gains. Read →
China HRC spot falls RMB 7/t on weak demand
SteelRadar · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
National 4.75 mm HRC spot averaged RMB 3,317/t, down RMB 7/t WoW, as mill inventories rose while social stocks fell modestly. Operating rates held near 80% but capacity utilization dipped and pre-holiday buying stayed need-based. Export HRC stable at $499/t FOB with Middle East support offset by softer Southeast Asia demand. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Hotter-than-expected US October CPI lifts rate-hike odds, pressuring gold, silver and palladium prices.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,058 | +0.7% +27 |
-6.5% | -3.7% | +118% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
53.00 | +3.5% +1.77 |
-24.4% | -0.6% | +109% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,573 | +2.2% +34 |
-22.7% | -3.1% | +43.8% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,086 | – | -33.4% | -27.6% | -47.3% |
China adds 26 tonnes of gold in October, extending 24-month streak.
Neils Christensen · Kitco News · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
The People’s Bank of China purchased 26 tonnes in October, bringing reserves to 2,435 tonnes. Other central banks including Poland (estimated 27 tonnes) and Uzbekistan (7 tonnes) also added, following Q3’s record 321-tonne net purchase. Ongoing official-sector buying provides structural support for gold amid price volatility and diversification away from the dollar. Read →
Palladium futures rebound sharply, up over 4% in early trade.
Wall Street Journal · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Palladium December futures traded as high as $1,070.50 after settling at $1,020.80 the prior session, a gain of roughly 4.7%. The move follows Tuesday’s selloff tied to the hot CPI print and comes amid broader precious-metals volatility, with the metal remaining sensitive to auto-sector demand and concentrated supply from Russia and South Africa. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China extends rare earth export-control suspension to Jan 10, 2027, sustaining ex-China price premiums of 8 to 125x on dysprosium, yttrium and others ahead of Trump-Xi talks.
Ex-China rare earth prices hit 8 to 125x China levels on export curbs
Bloomberg · Mon, Nov 10, 2026
Yttrium trades at $1.15 million per ton in Europe versus $9,144 in China; dysprosium is 20 times costlier outside China and terbium eight times higher, per Argus data. China’s curbs limit exports of materials for magnets, aerospace and EVs, with shipments to the US and Japan far below pre-2025 levels. The gap underscores supply strains as Washington pushes Beijing for concrete delivery ahead of a possible Trump-Xi meeting this month. Read →
Lynas plans one-month Malaysia plant shutdown this quarter
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 29, 2026
Lynas Rare Earths said planned kiln and electrical maintenance will idle its Kuantan, Malaysia refinery for about one month in the December quarter, cutting output versus the September quarter; a two-week outage is also set for its Australian mine. Acting CEO Pol Le Roux stated the company is comfortable with stockpiles and will meet customer orders. Lynas is one of only two major non-Chinese rare earth suppliers and has begun shipping heavy rare earth oxides amid China’s controls. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · VLCC attacks near Hormuz and BDI at 2,862 drive tanker and dry-bulk strength today.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.37M | -3.0% | +1180% | 227.2 | 31.00 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$239k | -42.8% | +198% | 71.4 | 9.74 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$116k | -49.6% | +85.9% | 73.8 | 10.07 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$308k | +1.4% | +879% | 200.7 | 26.94 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$227k | +1.9% | +857% | 212.6 | 23.89 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$71k | -16.5% | +241% | 97.8 | 11.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$72k | -5.0% | +242% | 98.8 | 13.26 |
Report of Nov 5, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; WetBarrel's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: WetBarrel.
Liberia-flagged VLCC hit in Persian Gulf; Indian crew injured
The Hindu · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Liberia-flagged VLCC MT Fujairah Energy was struck by a projectile on Nov 10 while sailing from Al Ruwais to Dubai in the Persian Gulf. Four crew including one Indian seafarer were injured; the rest are safe. The attack heightens risks for VLCC and tanker traffic through Hormuz, supporting elevated spot rates. Read →
Hapag-Lloyd lifts 2026 EBITDA outlook on robust rates
Hapag-Lloyd (via EQS-Ad-hoc) · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Hapag-Lloyd raised its 2026 Group EBITDA guidance to USD 4.6 to 5.0 billion and EBIT to USD 2.0 to 2.4 billion, citing stronger-than-expected Q4 performance and continued robust spot freight rates. The upgrade reflects sustained container market strength despite geopolitical volatility. Read →
Baltic Dry Index rises to 2,862 on Panamax strength
Hellenic Shipping News / Trading Economics · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index rose 0.3% to 2,862 points, a fresh high since Oct 9, on a fifth straight gain. Panamax rates climbed 1.9% to 2,075 points while Capesize held near one-month highs at 4,457, lifting earnings for iron ore, coal and grain carriers. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs advance second day on energy rally and equities as natural gas, power recover.
EUAs rise second day on energy rally, equities.
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
European carbon prices rose for a second consecutive day on Nov. 10 amid a strong equity market rally and firm technical support. Natural gas and power prices recovered from Monday's late drop, adding bullish momentum to the complex. The move follows two days of losses and keeps EUAs supported near recent highs around €88 to 90/t. Read →
Investors increase share of shrinking RGGI surplus.
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
A market monitor report published Nov. 10 showed investors holding a larger portion of the declining RGGI allowance surplus. Compliance entities' holdings exceeded their outstanding obligations at the end of Q3. The data highlights shifting ownership dynamics in the program ahead of the Dec. 2 auction. Read →
Boomitra delivers 2.6M soil carbon credits from Mexico.
Arshreet Singh · Carbon Pulse · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Boomitra announced at COP31 the sale and delivery of 2.6 million Verra-issued soil carbon credits from its Northern Mexico Grassland Restoration Project to corporate buyers via spot transactions. The project spans 2 million hectares and involves over 600 ranchers using regenerative practices; most of the 3.03 million credits issued in Feb. 2026 have now been transferred, with some retired. It is the largest such soil carbon delivery to date and includes revenue sharing with ranchers. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC updated FAQs letting commodities firms invest customer funds in tokenized assets and use blockchain records.
CFTC FAQs greenlight tokenized assets amid rising TradFi on-chain adoption.
BitRss Editorial · BitRss · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
The CFTC updated its FAQs to allow commodities firms to invest customer funds in tokenized assets and adopt blockchain recordkeeping. The move aligns with Mantle reporting tokenized assets jumping from 71 to 1,473 year-to-date and coalitions pushing issuer-backed tokenized stocks. Aave commodity deposits exceeded $133 million. Read →
Onchain commodity trading grows but liquidity favors TradFi.
The Markets Cafe · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets hit new highs with $5.4 billion in perpetual futures volume across commodities, led by silver at $1.3 billion and WTI crude at $1.2 billion. Onchain oil futures now exceed $1 billion daily volume on weekends when traditional exchanges are closed. Analysts note persistent liquidity and pricing gaps versus TradFi. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · RWE posts strong 9M earnings and closes $16B UK offshore wind JV with KKR as ADNOC Gas doubles Q3 profit and Permian water, Canadian oil sands deals advance.
RWE lifts 9M adj. EBITDA 35% to €4.6B, eyes upper guidance
RWE · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
German utility RWE reported adjusted EBITDA of €4.6 billion for the first nine months of 2026, up 35% from €3.4 billion a year earlier, with adjusted net income rising to €1.8 billion. Strong contributions came from new renewable assets, favorable European wind conditions, and Supply & Trading performance. The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance toward the upper end and its €1.32 dividend target. Read →
RWE-KKR close 50:50 JV, £12B financing for 2.8GW UK wind
RWE · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
RWE and KKR completed the equity close of their 50:50 joint venture for the Vanguard West and East offshore wind projects off Norfolk, securing the largest-ever non-recourse project financing for UK offshore wind at £12.8 billion total facilities. The 2.8 GW developments, with CfDs at £91.20/MWh, are slated for full commissioning in 2030 and will power around three million UK homes. Offshore construction begins early 2027. Read →
ADNOC Gas doubles Q3 net income to $1.34B, raises FY guidance
Tsvetana Paraskova · OilPrice.com · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
ADNOC Gas reported Q3 2026 net income of $1.34 billion, more than double the prior quarter, on 70% higher EBITDA of $2.03 billion driven by 20% higher domestic gas sales, a rebound in international product and LNG volumes, and a 249% surge in sulfur EBITDA. The company approved a $940 million quarterly dividend (up 5% YoY) and raised full-year 2026 net income guidance to at least $4 billion. Read →
Diamondback, KKR acquire Five Point's 70% in Deep Blue Permian water
Reuters · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
Diamondback Energy and KKR agreed to acquire Five Point Infrastructure’s 70% stake in Deep Blue Midland Basin, the leading full-cycle water infrastructure platform in the Permian’s Midland Basin, building on Diamondback’s existing 30% ownership. The deal, expected to close in Q4 2026, secures long-term water sourcing, transport, recycling and disposal capacity supporting nearly 2 million barrels per day for Diamondback’s operations. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · USTR extends 178 China Section 301 tariff exclusions and maritime suspension two months to Jan 9 to 10, 2027, while China pauses rare-earth export controls.
USTR extends China maritime Section 301 suspension to Jan 10, 2027
Federal Register · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
USTR suspended fees on Chinese maritime transport services and duties on ship-to-shore cranes plus other cargo-handling equipment through 11:59 p.m. ET January 9, 2027. The move, effective November 9, lets talks with China continue on the underlying investigation into Beijing's maritime dominance. No fees or duties accrue during the extension period. Read →
USTR extends 178 China Section 301 product exclusions to Jan 9, 2027
Federal Register · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
USTR extended all 178 remaining Section 301 exclusions on specific Chinese products, including 164 industrial/medical/consumer items and 14 solar-manufacturing equipment lines, through 11:59 p.m. ET January 9, 2027. Extensions apply to entries on or after November 10. The action aligns with the ongoing U.S.-China trade truce and avoids new duties on covered goods. Read →
Commerce upholds 20% countervailing duty on Moroccan phosphate
Argus (via World Ports Organization) · Tue, Nov 10, 2026
The U.S. Department of Commerce finalized its recommendation for a 20.04% countervailing duty on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer imports from OCP, citing government subsidies. The ITC will decide next; President Trump had temporarily suspended the duties earlier this year citing a domestic supply emergency for U.S. farmers. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Tanker attacks, drone strikes hit oil flows
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 11
Traders on X flag fresh ADNOC vessel strike near Hormuz and Ukrainian drone fire at Russia's Ust-Luga Baltic export hub, with Brent rebounding above $92 despite US inventory builds. Supply-risk premiums are back in focus after peace-talk optimism faded. Read →
Brent seen normalising at $70 to 85
X / @aralyxmarkets · Wed, Nov 11
Bloomberg Intelligence chart shared in #OOTT shows normalisation $8 to 23 below current levels, highlighting headline-driven volatility and the scale of potential contract losses for traders positioning for lower prices. Read →
Gold holds above $4,000 on Fed bets
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 11
Discussions note gold staying resilient near $4,050-$4,061 despite hotter US CPI, stronger dollar and rising yields pricing a December Fed hike; some see pressure from hawkish comments but central-bank buying as a floor. Read →
Pakistan told to diversify energy sources
X / @CrystolEnergy · Wed, Nov 11
At ADIPEC, analysts stress Pakistan must broaden sources, boost efficiency and shield households from price spikes as oil volatility continues, tying into broader Middle East supply concerns. Read →
Orlen drops Qatar LNG amid disruptions
X / @Newsbaseltd · Wed, Nov 11
Poland's Orlen scraps the Qatar LNG contract citing ongoing supply disruptions, adding to European energy security chatter in #OOTT feeds. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Arlan Suderman on grains/cattle pre-WASDE
Arlan Suderman (StoneX) on American Ag Network · Mon, Nov 9
Grains lower midday while cattle futures sharply higher. Watch/Listen →
Suderman recaps surprise corn yield cut
Arlan Suderman (StoneX) on American Ag Network · Tue, Nov 10
USDA cut corn yield below 180 bu/acre, tightening ending stocks. Watch/Listen →
S&P Global on LNG winter outlook
S&P Global Commodities Focus podcast · Wed, Nov 11
Europe storage below year-ago levels as Russian LNG phases out. Watch/Listen →
Wiggen on China refined exports amid glut
China restricts refined-product exports despite oversupply forecasts. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces the end of the Iran blockade by March 31, 2027
65%
+1pp w/w
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
9%
-2pp w/w
WTI tops its $147 record by March 31, 2027
14%
-9pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire agreement would open the way to sanctions relief on Russian crude, diesel and pipeline gas, bearish for Brent, European diesel cracks and TTF. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027
36%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
8%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
86%
+8pp w/w
US recession by end of 2027
28%
-5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Paid listings · list your event
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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