The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA · Kickers · Archive
Thursday, November 5, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,727
+0.08%
+7 |
Dollar Index
101.51
-0.06%
-0.06 |
EUR/USD
1.1236
+0.01%
+0.0001 |
US 10Y Yield
4.894
-5.8 bp
|
Last price as of Thu, Nov 5, 5:34 AM ET. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude is stabilizing today and up $1.55 (+1.6%) this morning following the $15/bbl price crash over Monday and Tuesday. This oil selloff seems to have been a speculative unwind rather than any fundamental change in physical markets. Iran claimed to hit 4 tankers with mines yesterday (Wednesday) and additional tankers and a tugboat this (Thursday) morning. It feels like this selloff is overdone, particularly as we head into a no moonlight weekend when the US prefers to conduct operations.
European nat gas (TTF) prices have come off quite a lot the past 2 to 3 days, but remains very high heading into Winter heating.
Ethane down $0.041 (-11.6%), Propane down $0.118 (-9.8%), Isobutane down $0.159 (-8.0%), N-Butane down $0.157 (-8.0%) and Pentane down $0.168 (-7.7%), all on the sharp drop in crude prices pressuring NGL values.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs sees gold at $4,900/oz by December 2026 (next month) on cyclical support and structurally high central bank demand (GS, Nov 4)
European nat gas (TTF) prices have come off quite a lot the past 2 to 3 days, but remains very high heading into Winter heating.
Ethane down $0.041 (-11.6%), Propane down $0.118 (-9.8%), Isobutane down $0.159 (-8.0%), N-Butane down $0.157 (-8.0%) and Pentane down $0.168 (-7.7%), all on the sharp drop in crude prices pressuring NGL values.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs sees gold at $4,900/oz by December 2026 (next month) on cyclical support and structurally high central bank demand (GS, Nov 4)
Drivers and the Kicker house view are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
The marquee commodity stories of the day
China copper spot premiums hit 2021 high on supply crunch
Jessica Zhou · Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 4, 9:30 PM ET
Spot copper premiums in Shanghai surged to 1,900 yuan ($285) a ton over futures on Wednesday, the highest since 2021, as Chinese smelters curb output and buyers scramble for scarce physical cathode in the world’s top consumer. Read →
North Sea physical crude hits fresh lows on peace hopes
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 4, 12:43 PM ET
Physical North Sea crude prices slumped further Wednesday, with one trader cutting its Forties offer by $3.80 to a $1.35 premium over Dated Brent as markets priced in de-escalation after the Democratic midterm sweep. Read →
Oil drops fourth day as Iran war risk premium fades
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4, 9:20 PM ET
Brent fell 0.85% to $93.82 a barrel and WTI dropped 1.36% to $86.92 Thursday, extending losses after Democrats gained Congress and markets bet on reduced escalation risk in the US-Iran conflict. Read →
Oil futures tumble on Democratic Congress sweep
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Nov 4
WTI settled down 8.3% at $88.12 a barrel and Brent fell 8.7% to $94.62 after Democrats won control of Congress, boosting hopes for a Middle East settlement and extracting geopolitical risk premium. Read →
Gold rebounds above $4,000 on oil drop, softer dollar
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Wed, Nov 4
Front-month gold futures rose 3.4% to $4,061.10 an ounce Wednesday as oil prices slid and the dollar softened after the Democratic midterm victory raised de-escalation hopes. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 5US Nat Gas 3NGL/LPG & Petchems 1Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 3Coal 2Agriculture 2Fertilizers 2Base Metals 3Iron Ore & Steel 4Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3On-Chain Commodities 2Corporate & Deals 4Regulation & Government 5Social buzz 5Podcasts 4Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Oil prices extend four-day slide as US midterms raise odds of Iran war de-escalation, unwinding risk premium.
Cash WTI 92.07 +0.94 | Cash Brent 98.90 +1.53 | Cash Br–TI 6.83 +0.59 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
88.61 | +0.6% +0.49 |
+54.3% | +49.1% | +9.0% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
96.17 | +1.6% +1.55 |
+58.0% | +51.7% | +16.2% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.752 | +0.9% +0.024 |
+61.4% | +40.0% | +18.6% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.252 | +1.1% +0.046 |
+100% | +70.3% | +73.1% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
26.99 | +1.9% +0.51 |
+90.0% +12.78 |
+16.7% +3.87 |
+66.5% +10.78 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
89.95 | +1.6% +1.44 |
+184% +58.31 |
+98.1% +44.55 |
+311% +68.09 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
47.98 | +1.7% +0.82 |
+140% +27.96 |
+57.0% +17.43 |
+165% +29.88 |
Oil drops fourth straight day on lower Iran escalation odds after US midterms.
Siyi Liu · Reuters · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Brent fell 97 cents to $93.65 a barrel and WTI dropped $1.14 to $86.98 as Democratic congressional gains raised prospects for diplomatic pressure on Trump to end the Iran conflict. JPMorgan said Gulf supply recovery pushed the market into a 1.4 million bpd surplus in October. A weakened Trump faces constraints on military options, sources close to Gulf governments told Reuters. Read →
US crude stocks fall 865K barrels in fifth straight weekly drop.
Liz Hampton and Georgina McCartney · Reuters via BOE Report · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Commercial crude inventories fell 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million in the week to Oct 30, beating expectations for a build; gasoline stocks dropped 222,000 barrels and distillates plunged 3.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose 1.7 points to 94.5%. Distillate stocks hit their lowest level in more than two decades. Read →
Oil holds near two-month low on Iran conflict end hopes after midterms.
Bloomberg · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Brent traded near $95 a barrel and WTI near $88 after Wednesday's nearly 9% plunge on Democratic midterm sweep. VP JD Vance and Sen. Schumer cited voter frustration with the war as a key factor. Markets bet the outcome accelerates diplomatic efforts to resolve the nine-month conflict. Read →
Brent below $95, WTI near $87 after fourth day of declines post-9% crash.
Sarmeeli Mallick · Moneycontrol · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Brent fell 0.62% to around $94.03 and WTI slipped 1.13% to near $87.12 on Thursday following Wednesday's 8.7 to 8.9% drops. UAE considers a third Hormuz bypass pipeline; Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $105 by December. Election results increase pressure for a diplomatic Iran settlement. Read →
Oil falls third day amid mixed US-Iran peace talk signals.
Bloomberg via Energy Connects · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Brent hovered near $103 and WTI near $95 as Tehran and Washington reviewed mediator proposals but remained divided. API data showed a 5.3 million barrel US crude draw for the week to Oct 30. Gulf exports revived, pushing the market toward surplus for the first time since July per physical metrics. Read →
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · Lower 48 output falls to 111.2 bcfd in November, lifting December Henry Hub futures 0.7% to $2.914.
Cash Henry Hub 2.682 -0.006 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
2.942 | -0.6% -0.017 |
-20.2% | -32.5% | -46.7% |
US natgas futures rise on lower output
Reuters · Wed, Nov 5, 2026
Lower 48 dry gas production averaged 111.2 bcfd so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October and the August record of 115 bcfd per LSEG. December NYMEX futures rose 1.9 cents to $2.914/mmBtu on the drop and forecasts for cooler mid-November weather. LNG feedgas flows eased to 18.1 bcfd from October's 18.4 bcfd. Read →
US natgas futures rise for second session
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
December futures gained 2.2% to $2.959/mmBtu on Tuesday. Output decline and slightly cooler forecasts supported the move ahead of Thursday's EIA storage report, expected to show an 81 bcf build. Read →
Natgas holds $2.80 as output falls to 110 bcfd
Itai Smidt · TradingNews · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
Lower 48 output fell to 110 bcfd in November from 113.4 bcfd in October, on track for a five-month low of 108.1 bcfd. December futures settled at $2.921 after a 2% gain. LNG feedgas hit a record 20.8 bcfd in October. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Mont Belvieu ethane, propane, butane and natural gasoline plunge 7.7 to 11.6% on Nov 4 amid heavy selling and shifting economics.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.314 | -11.6% -0.041 |
+32.3% | +18.0% | -26.6% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.078 | -9.8% -0.118 |
+74.7% | +67.0% | -21.6% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.822 | -8.0% -0.157 |
+144% | +109% | +14.5% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.833 | -8.0% -0.159 |
+136% | +102% | +15.2% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.011 | -7.7% -0.168 |
+71.6% | +60.7% | +6.5% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 12 | -4 | +13 | +14 | +6 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 81 | -12 | +53 | +56 | -6 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -583 | +39 | -280 | -256 | -163 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -264 | +10 | -99 | -67 | -230 |
| C5 as % WTI | 95 | -9 | +10 | +7 | -2 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
EIA propane stocks · week ending Fri, Oct 30
A 1.6 mb draw took US propane stocks to 104.1 mb, 9.7 mb (10%) above the five-year average and 2.0 mb below a year ago. Exports ran 1,869 kb/d (-364 kb/d w/w) against production of 2,948 kb/d.
US stocks 104.1 mb -1.6 mb w/w | Year ago 106.1 mb | 5-yr avg 94.4 mb |
Gulf Coast 64.7 mb PADD 3 | Midwest 25.1 mb PADD 2 | Exports 1,869 kb/d -364 kb/d w/w |
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · Full EIA report →
EIA data shows US propane stocks drop below year-ago levels for first time since
Christine Groenewold · RBN Energy · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
EIA reported a 1.6 MMbbl draw in US propane/propylene stocks for the week ended Oct 30, bringing inventories to 104.1 MMbbl, 2 MMbbl below the same week last year. The Midwest (PADD 2) now sits 2.8 MMbbl below last year and at the five-year low, while the Gulf Coast remains above prior-year levels. Domestic demand drove the draw as product supplied rose sharply and exports fell, tightening supply ahead of winter heating season in key demand regions. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF falls 3 to 10% to €84 to 89/MWh on milder weather hopes and Iran diplomacy bets; JKM holds near $31.62/MMBtu.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
88.40 | +0.4% +0.31 |
+202% | +170% | +14.9% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
29.11 | +0.4% +0.10 |
+202% | +170% | +14.9% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.62 | -0.5% -0.15 |
+229% | +183% | -0.0% |
EU gas storage · gas day Tue, Nov 3
EU gas storage is 74.1% full, 839 TWh in store, 15.7 points below the five-year average for this date and 9.0 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 60.6%. LNG terminals are 52.4% full and sent out 3,882 GWh, 8% more than the day before.
EU full 74.1% -0.26 pts d/d | Year ago 83.0% | 5-yr avg 89.8% same date |
Germany 60.6% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ and ALSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF drops 2% to €89.59/MWh on Iran diplomacy hopes.
Tsvetana Paraskova · Oilprice.com · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Dutch TTF front-month fell 2% to €89.59/MWh early Wednesday after US midterms raised hopes of diplomacy over new Iran strikes. Qatar LNG force majeure extends to December end and EU storage sits at 74.33% vs 86% five-year average, keeping physical tightness intact despite the price dip. Read →
Mild Asia winter may free LNG cargoes for Europe.
Gavin Maguire · Reuters · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Forecasts show East Asia temperatures 3°C above normal Dec-Mar due to strong El Niño, cutting Northeast Asian heating demand and potentially freeing several million tonnes of spot LNG. This eases competition for cargoes Europe needs amid its own low storage and disrupted Qatari flows. Read →
EU storage turns to net withdrawals at 74% full.
European Gas Hub · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
EU sites shifted to net withdrawals last week with 0.4 bcm drawn since Oct 28, versus five-year average net injections. Colder weather, lower wind output and reduced LNG inflows accelerate draws from already low 74% full levels, exposing winter vulnerability. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · ERCOT pauses new data-center interconnections amid 474 GW queue audit as Texas governor-elect signals moratorium.
Hinojosa victory clouds Texas data-center boom
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott with a pledge to halt new data-center projects until the legislature enacts protections for communities, power supplies and water. ERCOT already tracks over 400 GW of data-center interconnection requests, more than four times the grid's record peak. The shift adds fresh uncertainty to one of the fastest-growing U.S. markets for AI-driven electricity demand. Read →
Exelon files FERC complaint on PJM auctions
Financial Times · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Exelon filed a Section 206 complaint asking FERC to replace PJM’s three-year forward capacity auctions with prompt auctions held two months before delivery year, starting 2030/31. The utility argues current rules lock customers into high prices based on outdated forecasts amid surging data-center load and rapid supply changes. The move is part of Exelon’s broader push for affordability reforms while PJM stakeholders pursue wider market changes. Read →
French power hits €261/MWh day-ahead average
Selectra · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
EPEX day-ahead prices for France averaged €261/MWh on November 5, up 5.5% from the prior day and 48% above the 30-day mean. Evening peak hours reached €351/MWh while overnight lows stayed near €202/MWh. The surge reflects tight supply conditions across the coupled European market amid seasonal demand and generation patterns. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · India pushes power-plant coal stockpiles to triple by March amid low inventories and rising demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
138.30 | -1.4% -1.90 |
+41.9% | +41.8% | -4.9% |
| Newcastle $/t |
146.00 | – | +38.1% | +29.2% | -4.7% |
India orders triple power-plant coal stocks by March
Rajesh Kumar Singh · Business Standard · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
India's coal, power and railways ministries set a target to raise power-plant coal inventories from 18 million tonnes to at least 55 million tonnes by March 2027. The push follows critically low stocks at nearly half of plants and record October supplies from Coal India. Higher stockpiles aim to prevent summer blackouts while prioritizing grid plants over industrial users. Read →
Sebi clears Mahanadi Coalfields IPO for Coal India stake sale
Business Standard · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
India's markets regulator approved the IPO of Coal India subsidiary Mahanadi Coalfields, with Coal India selling up to 661.8 million shares or a 10% stake. The unit produced 21% of India's domestic coal and 28.4% of Coal India's output in FY2026. The deal could raise up to $1 billion and ranks among India's largest offerings this year. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Wheat rises on IKAR cut to Russian 2026 to 27 exports; corn/soybeans sag on StoneX bigger US crop forecasts.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
447 | +0.6% +3 |
+1.5% | +4.3% | -19.2% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
603 | +0.8% +5 |
+18.9% | +12.6% | -21.3% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,206 | +0.3% +4 |
+17.0% | +10.5% | +1.2% |
| Sugar May 2027 |
17.97 | +0.3% +0.06 |
+19.7% | +26.6% | -9.9% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
279.7 | -0.0% -0.1 |
-19.8% | -29.5% | +37.4% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,374 | -1.5% -82 |
-11.4% | -13.1% | +124% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.73 | +0.8% +0.62 |
+21.8% | +21.3% | -33.0% |
Wheat rises on IKAR cut to Russian 2026 to 27 exports
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 5, 2026
IKAR lowered its 2026 to 27 Russian wheat export forecast to 39.5 million tons from 42 million tons and total grain exports to 49.5 million tons. Chicago wheat futures rose as much as 0.7% on the news amid ongoing Black Sea shipment disruptions. The move supports prices by highlighting tighter global wheat supplies from a top exporter. Read →
Soybeans extend losses on StoneX crop upgrade
Anthony Harrup · Morningstar / Dow Jones · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
StoneX lifted its soybean yield estimate to 55 bushels per acre and production outlook. January soybeans fell 1% on the CBOT to $12.02 1/4 a bushel. Larger expected US harvest weighs on prices despite a flash sale of 167,000 metric tons to Spain. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Egyptian urea hits $535/t FOB on 20% gas rationing at Kima/Mopco, Tampa ammonia jumps $95/t on European gas spike.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,741 | -0.2% -4 |
-0.5% | +6.6% | -27.1% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
469.00 | -1.8% -8.50 |
+15.1% | +11.7% | -43.8% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
426.25 | -1.0% -4.50 |
+10.2% | +7.2% | -43.2% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
795.00 | -0.3% -2.50 |
+27.2% | +8.4% | +9.3% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Tampa ammonia settles $95/t higher at $645/t CFR for November
Kim Clarksen · Fertilizer Daily · Mon, Nov 2, 5:00 PM ET
Yara and Mosaic settled the November Tampa ammonia contract at $645/t CFR, up $95/t from October. The rise tracks fresh European natural gas highs above €100/MWh and persistent Middle East supply limits from the Strait of Hormuz closure. The benchmark guides U.S. Gulf ammonia pricing and spot deals across the Atlantic basin. Read →
Nutrien Q3 profit falls 39% on sulfur costs, plans White Springs shutdown
Kate Helmore · The Globe and Mail · Wed, Nov 5, 2026
Nutrien posted Q3 net earnings of $288 million, down 39% year-on-year, missing estimates amid surging sulfur costs in phosphates and lower nitrogen volumes. It will close the higher-cost White Springs phosphate plant in Florida in Q2 2027 after a strategic review while optimizing Aurora. Potash sales guidance rose on steady global demand. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China copper spot premiums hit 1,900 yuan/t, highest since 2021, as smelter curbs tighten supply in top consumer.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,118 | -0.4% -55 |
+13.7% | +29.5% | +47.3% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,330 | +0.6% +81 |
+12.8% | +32.5% | +46.8% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,097 | +0.2% +5 |
+4.1% | +16.1% | +11.4% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,400 | +0.8% +28 |
+13.2% | +21.9% | +1.9% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,899 | +3.0% +468 |
-6.1% | +6.1% | -20.8% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,127 | +0.5% +11 |
-3.5% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
47,660 | +1.9% +881 |
+13.5% | +34.5% | +21.3% |
Freeport approves $4.5B Bagdad mine expansion to double output
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 4, 8:50 AM ET
Freeport-McMoRan’s board approved a $4.5 billion brownfield expansion at its Bagdad copper-molybdenum mine in Arizona that will more than double mining and milling rates. Annual copper output will rise by over 100,000 metric tons to exceed 400 million pounds, with initial production targeted for mid-2030 after 3.5 years of construction; molybdenum output will also increase by 12 million pounds annually. The project positions Bagdad as the second-largest US copper mine behind Morenci and benefits from modern automation and economies of scale. Read →
DRC seizes thousands of tons copper-cobalt, orders fraud probe
Bloomberg · Tue, Nov 3, 7:25 AM ET
DRC authorities seized more than 500 trucks, machinery and several thousand metric tons of copper and cobalt during raids in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga provinces. Justice Minister Guillaume Ngefa Atondoko Andali ordered judicial investigations into mining fraud, illegal exploitation and smuggling following the commission’s findings at sites including Menda. Congo, the top cobalt and second-largest copper producer, is cracking down on unauthorized operations encroaching on industrial concessions held by firms including ERG. Read →
Indonesia to cut 2027 nickel ore quota amid global oversupply
Anita Nugraha; Shivam Prakash · S&P Global · Sun, Nov 2
Coordinating Minister Bahlil Lahadalia signaled further reductions to Indonesia’s 2027 nickel ore production quota under the RKAB mechanism to address an estimated 750,000-ton global surplus and support prices near $15,800/mt. The 2026 quota was revised to 290 to 300 million wet metric tons; producers including Huayou, Tsingshan and Harita are also planning smelter output cuts. The move aims to align supply with 3.5 million tons annual global demand while easing pressure on nickel prices. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · China equity rally and steel margin gains lift SGX/DCE iron ore futures to one-month highs on short-covering and restocking bets.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
91.7 | +1.4% +1.3 |
-8.9% | -6.6% | +5.6% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
400 | +1.4% +6 |
+1.5% | +4.2% | -37.0% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
415 | +0.4% +2 |
+0.7% | +1.2% | -39.0% |
Iron ore futures near one-week high on China restocking bets
Reuters via MINING.COM · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
DCE most-traded iron ore contract rose 1.56% to 682 yuan/t and SGX December contract climbed 1.27% to $91.85/t. Mills are expected to replenish seaborne stocks ahead of the February 2027 Lunar New Year holiday. This provides near-term price support despite weak fundamentals and rising seaborne supply. Read →
Short-covering lifts iron ore; prices stay slightly firm
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
DCE I2701 contract settled up 1.77% at 691 yuan/t with Qingdao port spot prices rising 4 to 6 yuan/t. Funds closed short ferrous positions after a macro shift while 10 major port stocks edged up 630kt to 104.68 Mt and daily hot metal output fell 4,800 t to 2.357 Mt. Near-term prices are expected to stay slightly firm. Read →
CISA chides mills for ignoring output curb calls
Bloomberg · Sun, Nov 2, 2026
China Iron and Steel Association commentary criticized mills for raising output instead of curbing it and cutting inventories as instructed. This has left the sector oversupplied and struggling with profitability. The rebuke highlights ongoing challenges in enforcing production discipline amid weak steel demand. Read →
Weak demand weighs on China HRC market ahead of holiday
SteelRadar · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
National average 4.75 mm HRC spot price fell RMB 7/t WoW to RMB 3,317/t with mill inventories rising and social stocks down only modestly. Operating rate at 79.69% but capacity utilization at 72.99%; export offers stable at USD 499/t FOB amid soft Southeast Asia demand. Weak pre-holiday buying limits price recovery. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold rallies to two-week high above $4,130 as dollar and yields fall after Democratic midterm sweep.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,134 | +1.5% +61 |
-4.8% | +3.6% | +128% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
52.74 | +0.9% +0.46 |
-24.8% | +10.3% | +118% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,520 | +1.4% +21 |
-25.3% | -0.6% | +46.9% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
1,023 | +2.0% +20 |
-37.2% | -26.3% | -49.5% |
Gold extends rebound above $4,100 as dollar and yields fall on midterm result
Bloomberg · Thu, Nov 5, 2:43 AM ET
Gold extended gains to near $4,140 an ounce after jumping over 3% Wednesday, its biggest rise since August, as a Democratic sweep of Congress weakened the dollar and sent Treasury yields lower. The result reduced expectations for deficit-expanding policies under the Trump administration. Bullion held above the $4,000 threshold amid the moves. Read →
Gold hits two-week high on softer dollar and falling yields after midterms
Giulia Petroni · WSJ · Wed, Nov 5, 2026
New York gold futures rose 1.5% to $4,132.50 an ounce in early European trading, supported by a weaker dollar and declining yields following the Democratic congressional gains. Silver futures rose 0.4% to $52.52 and platinum gained 1.3% to $1,517.10. The moves came as oil prices also fell, adding support. Read →
Gold hits two-week high as dollar and yields ease after midterms
CNBC · Thu, Nov 5, 5:03 AM ET
Spot gold climbed nearly 2% to $4,134.83 an ounce, its highest since October 22, on a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields post-election. Silver rose 1.7% to $53.12, platinum gained 2.1% to $1,527.65 and palladium climbed 2.6% to $1,030.14. The Democratic victory fueled broad equity gains and reduced policy uncertainty. Read →
Charts of the dayGold price charts Nov 4 2026via @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 135 likesFour Bloomberg-sourced line charts of gold price action and related metrics for recent trading sessions
Chinese banks Iran Russia paymentsvia @LSREnergy
US energy consumption by sector 76 quadsvia @Object_Zero_
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Heavy rare earth prices surge in Europe as China export pause nears Nov 10 end.
European heavy rare earth oxide prices surge sharply
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Nov 5, 2026
As of early Nov 5 Beijing time, European spot gadolinium oxide rose $100/kg to $2,700 to 3,000/kg, dysprosium oxide up $150/kg to $3,300 to 4,200/kg, and terbium oxide up $300/kg to $7,300 to 8,300/kg. Heavy rare earth inventories in Europe are shrinking with low trading volumes and prices but no available goods for dysprosium, terbium, and gadolinium. Chinese domestic dysprosium oxide remained far lower at $215 to 220/kg, widening the premium ahead of the Nov 10 deadline. Read →
China's overseas mineral buys hit record $8.8B YTD
CNBC · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
Chinese mineral acquisitions abroad reached $8.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2026, the highest annual total since at least 2018 per Rhodium Group. Outbound investment in upstream critical minerals like lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths is expected to roughly double from the 2021 to 2025 period. Beijing is coordinating via new overseas bureaus and investment vehicles to secure supply amid 70% import dependence thresholds and existing export licensing on seven medium/heavy rare earths. Read →
US Army, REalloys sign term sheet for Dy/Tb plant
GlobeNewswire / REalloys · Mon, Nov 3, 2026
REalloys and the U.S. Army executed a non-binding term sheet for a potential Enhanced Use Lease of up to 75 years on 200 acres at Tooele Army Depot in Utah to develop a heavy rare earth processing facility focused on dysprosium and terbium. The Army would gain right of first offer on production from the privately financed plant. This advances domestic supply ahead of the Jan 1, 2027 DFARS ban on Chinese-origin rare earths and magnets in defense contracts. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Maersk lifts 2026 EBITDA guidance to $14 to 14.5B on sustained container rates amid port congestion and AI-driven demand.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.41M | +4.5% | +992% | 234.9 | 32.05 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$418k | -2.7% | +495% | 118.3 | 16.14 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$230k | +9.8% | +262% | 133.8 | 18.25 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$304k | -7.7% | +781% | 199.9 | 26.83 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$223k | -8.9% | +758% | 211.1 | 23.72 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$85k | +36.7% | +178% | 114.8 | 13.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -3.5% | +278% | 104.8 | 14.07 |
Report of Oct 29, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
Maersk lifts 2026 EBITDA guidance to $14 to 14.5B on high rates.
Reuters · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Maersk raised its full-year 2026 underlying EBITDA guidance to $14 to 14.5 billion, up from $10.5 to 12.5 billion, citing resilient demand, port congestion, and freight rates that rose 46% quarter-over-quarter. Ocean volumes were flat year-over-year while the company noted AI infrastructure and electrification investments boosting industrial cargo. Shares fell 11% as Q3 results missed some analyst estimates. Read →
BDI rebounds 4% to 2,694 as Capesize rates surge.
Baird Maritime / Reuters · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index rose 104 points or 4% to 2,694, its highest in over a week, driven by a 7.22% jump in the Capesize index to 4,097. Average daily Capesize earnings increased $2,511 to $33,659 amid firmer iron ore prices and short-covering ahead of Chinese steel restocking. The Panamax index added 1.5% while Supramax slipped. Read →
VLCC rates fall from peaks; floor expected to hold.
Alexa Laguna · World Ports Organization · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
VLCC rates from the US Gulf and West Africa have dropped 27% and 32% respectively from recent peaks as Atlantic enquiries soften and tonnage lists lengthen. Middle East STS shuttle delays and war-risk premia continue to tie up vessels and support a rate floor, even as potential sanctions relief and higher Asian arrivals add supply pressure over coming weeks. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs post modest gains as funds add length and energy prices crumble on easing Iran tensions.
California ETS emissions fall 4% in 2025, below cap.
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Nov 5, 12:05 AM ET
California covered emissions in the Quebec-linked cap-and-trade program fell about 4% in 2025 and stayed below the annual cap. State data released Wednesday showed continued compliance surplus. The drop signals sustained decarbonization progress in the state's emissions market. Read →
EU urged to ease demands for Article 6 carbon deals.
Carbon Pulse · Thu, Nov 5, 12:01 AM ET
A report released Thursday said the EU risks missing 2040 emissions targets if it imposes excessive climate policy demands on carbon credit suppliers. It warned overly strict conditions could limit supply of Article 6 credits needed for the bloc's goals. The advice targets upcoming negotiations on international credit integration. Read →
Gabon sells 6 mln forest credits to Germany's SEFE.
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4, 1:44 PM ET
Gabon agreed to sell roughly 6 million tons of ART-TREES certified forest carbon credits to German state-owned SEFE. The deal marks Africa's first sovereign jurisdictional forest credit sale and is eligible for CORSIA aviation offsets, with delivery by Q1 2027. Revenue will go to a dedicated account pending national benefit-sharing rules. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC updates FAQs allowing tokenized assets for customer funds and blockchain recordkeeping at commodities firms.
Hong Kong plans 400-oz gold token for interbank trades.
Simon Yoon · TokenPost · Mon, Nov 3, 2026, 3:44 AM ET
Secretary Christopher Hui announced the interbank tokenized gold project on Nov. 2 during Hong Kong FinTech Week. Each token will represent one standard 400-ounce gold bar priced off the HAU reference and pair with tokenized deposits under the HKMA EnsembleTX pilot. The initiative targets bank-to-bank settlement and expands the city's gold-trading infrastructure. Read →
Tokenized gold holds 90% of commodity DeFi deposits.
Alexander Zdravkov · ETHNews · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
Token Terminal data for Nov. 3 shows $134 million of tokenized commodities deposited in DeFi, or 1.7% of the $7.66 billion category market cap. XAUT accounts for $92 million (68.6%) and PAXG $28 million (21.0%), together 89.6% of deposits. The concentration highlights limited secondary-market liquidity and redemption constraints for non-gold commodity tokens in decentralized protocols. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · BP raises $1.06B via Aker BP stake sale and lifts 2026 divestment target as majors streamline amid strong prices.
BP sells 5% Aker BP stake for $1.06B, lifts divestment target
Reuters · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
BP sold a 5% stake in Norwegian producer Aker BP for about $1.06 billion at NOK 311 per share, reducing its holding to 10.9%. CEO Meg O’Neill cited the move to strengthen the balance sheet and simplify the portfolio; the company raised its full-year 2026 divestment proceeds guidance by $1 billion to around $9 billion. Read →
Gulfport posts $96.4M net income, $226.5M adjusted EBITDA in Q3
Business Wire / Gulfport Energy · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Gulfport Energy reported $96.4 million net income and $226.5 million adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026, with production rising 10% sequentially to 1,057.2 MMcfe/d and liquids output up 67%. The company generated $89 million adjusted free cash flow and continued share repurchases and acreage acquisitions. Read →
Canadian Natural beats Q3 profit estimates on higher output, prices
Reuters · Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Canadian Natural Resources beat analyst estimates for third-quarter profit, aided by higher crude prices and stronger production across its diversified portfolio including record thermal in-situ output. The company highlighted safe operations and capital discipline amid a planned Horizon turnaround. Read →
Brazil’s CADE clears Saipem-Subsea7 merger with divestiture
Saipem · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Brazil’s competition authority approved the Saipem-Subsea7 combination into Saipem7, subject to divesting the vessel Seven Borealis. The companies confirmed the deal’s strategic rationale and expected synergies remain intact as they seek final clearances. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Canada-China ag tariff relief extension and CFTC-USDA ag oversight pact drive Regulation & Government moves today.
Canada, China extend ag tariff relief to 2028
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 4, 5:27 PM ET
Canada and China agreed Wednesday to extend through end-2028 a deal lowering Beijing’s tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab while Canada extends tariff waivers on certain Chinese steel and aluminum. The extension, reached at a Beijing meeting co-led by China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and Canada’s International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, restores predictable market access for Canadian farmers and harvesters after the original arrangement was set to expire this year. It supports Ottawa’s goal of boosting exports to China by 50% by 2030 amid broader trade tensions. Read →
CFTC, USDA sign ag markets oversight MOU
CFTC · Wed, Nov 4
The CFTC and USDA signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Wednesday to coordinate oversight of U.S. agricultural derivatives markets through improved data sharing, policy alignment and joint monitoring of structural or systemic risks. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the pact will expand farmers’, ranchers’ and producers’ access to risk-management tools while strengthening market integrity. The agreement formalizes collaboration on identifying risks and responding to market events in commodities including grains and livestock. Read →
China ties US farm buys to tariff cuts
Reuters · Thu, Nov 5
China’s commerce ministry said Thursday it remains open to buying more U.S. farm goods only if Washington agrees to reciprocal tariff cuts and reduced non-tariff barriers. A proposed $60 billion package including roughly $17 billion in annual U.S. agricultural purchases beyond soybeans has yet to be finalized following the September Xi-Trump summit. Beijing is on track for its soybean target but purchased just $7.2 billion of other U.S. ag products January-September. Read →
Midterms give trade partners leverage vs tariffs
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4
Democratic gains in Tuesday’s midterms, blamed by voters on tariffs and energy prices, may embolden trading partners to delay investment pledges or push back on U.S. tariff demands, analysts said. South Korea and India could slow-walk commitments while China gains perceived leverage in ongoing talks. The White House faces greater pressure to avoid new trade wars that would further raise consumer costs. Read →
Industry urges end to Jones Act energy waiver
Maritime Executive / GCaptain · Wed, Nov 4
The American Maritime Partnership urged President Trump on Wednesday to let the 250-day Jones Act waiver for energy and fertilizer cargoes expire November 15, arguing it has not lowered fuel prices and has delayed over $2.6 billion in U.S. vessel investments. The waiver, first issued in March amid Iran-related disruptions, allows foreign-flag tankers on domestic routes; the API supports extension while maritime groups warn of harm to domestic industry. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil drops sharply as Iran talks ease risk premium
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 4
Traders on X note Brent and WTI shedding geopolitical premiums after US-Iran deal signals, with Hormuz transits accelerating and stranded barrels clearing. Physical supply risks linger despite futures repricing lower, highlighting the paper-vs-physical disconnect for energy traders. Read →
Uranium LT indicator at all-time high of $99/lb
X / @Swedish_uranium · Wed, Nov 4
Kazatomprom's Q3 sales and price data fuel retail and trader chatter on r/uranium and X, with spot near $92 and long-term contracts signaling sustained tightness. Utilities' supply security push keeps the sector in focus for commodity bulls. Read →
Metals and energy see relief rally across board
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 4
Trader @GDXTrader polls the room on whether the day's bounce in gold, silver, copper, uranium and oil is a real turn or just relief, sparking replies in the commodities community on X. Read →
Wheat drops on Black Sea grain supply hopes
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 4
Grain traders note London, Paris and Chicago wheat futures sliding as Russia confirms attendance at US-mediated talks, eroding Black Sea risk premium. Corn also lower with Ukraine export implications. Buyers remain active for US corn despite the bearish tone. Read →
Brent hovers $101 to 104 on inventories and diplomacy
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 4
Commodity pulse updates show Brent down over 4% in 24 hours to around $101 to 104 with WTI following lower. API and EIA data cited for crude draws while peace talk rumors offset some geopolitical support. Traders monitor for confirmation of surplus signals from banks. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
|
Oil stays above $100/bbl through 2027
Paul Sankey on Bloomberg Surveillance · Tue, Nov 3
Oil stays above $100 a barrel through 2027 on persistent Hormuz disruption. Watch/Listen →
Permanent regime shift in oil pricing
Jeff Currie on Bloomberg TV · Sun, Nov 2
Physical oil prices long-dated Brent near $99 on energy security and redundancy buildout. Watch/Listen →
Mining stocks oversold vs commodities
Darko Kuzmanovic on Money of Mine podcast · Wed, Nov 4
Uranium and copper fundamentals stronger than equity prices suggest amid AI and risk-off flows. Watch/Listen →
Gas market tightness into 2027
IEA Global Gas Security Review · Tue, Nov 3
Europe enters winter with lowest gas storage since 2013, pressuring LNG markets into 2027. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces the end of the Iran blockade by December 31
43%
+3pp w/w
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
11%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by December 31
7%
-5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
8%
-5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
78%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
13%
-3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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