The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA · Kickers · Archive
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,669
+1.0%
+72 |
Dollar Index
101.32
-0.5%
-0.55 |
EUR/USD
1.1254
+0.6%
+0.0062 |
US 10Y Yield
4.952
+5.8 bp
|
Last price as of Wed, Nov 4, 5:34 AM ET. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Brent $102.04, down $1.56 (-1.5%) and WTI Crude $95.14, down $0.95 (-1.0%) on hopes of a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough easing supply disruption risks.
Palladium up $61 (+6.5%), Silver up $2.42 (+4.9%) and Gold up $115 (+2.9%), all on Democrats gaining Congress control weakening the dollar and lowering Treasury yields.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $2.95 (-3.2%) on milder weather forecasts and profit-taking.
Tin down $1364 (-2.8%) on US midterm "blue wave" results and tightening expectations weighing on demand.
Kicker: Saxo sees gold and silver rallying on softer dollar and lower yields after Democrat midterm win (Saxo Bank, Nov 4).
Palladium up $61 (+6.5%), Silver up $2.42 (+4.9%) and Gold up $115 (+2.9%), all on Democrats gaining Congress control weakening the dollar and lowering Treasury yields.
Dutch TTF European nat gas down $2.95 (-3.2%) on milder weather forecasts and profit-taking.
Tin down $1364 (-2.8%) on US midterm "blue wave" results and tightening expectations weighing on demand.
Kicker: Saxo sees gold and silver rallying on softer dollar and lower yields after Democrat midterm win (Saxo Bank, Nov 4).
Drivers and the Kicker house view are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice. Past Kickers by commodity and house →
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Heraeus probe finds decade of understated precious metals tests
Florian Müller · Financial Times · Wed, Nov 4
German group Heraeus systematically understated precious metals content in materials processed for 450 customers worldwide over more than a decade, an independent investigation found. The practice, described as legally highly questionable, reduced cash or refined metal owed to clients, prompting Heraeus to set aside €170 million; it follows earlier €460 million provisions tied to alleged misconduct. Read →
Oil falls third day as Iran talks send mixed signals
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 4
Oil pushed lower for a third session, with Brent near $103 a barrel and WTI around $95, as traders weighed mixed signals on US-Iran peace talks. Tehran and Washington reviewed fresh mediator proposals while Iran’s national security chief said the US response was “not satisfactory.” Read →
Gold jumps over 2% on softer dollar post-Dem midterm win
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4
Gold prices rose more than 2% on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US dollar after Democrats seized control of both the Senate and House in US midterm elections. Bullion advanced as markets interpreted the results as reducing the likelihood of a deficit-expanding agenda under President Trump. Read →
Copper swings on midterms, weaker dollar
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 4
Copper swung after US midterm elections that delivered a Democratic sweep of Congress, with the dollar easing and benchmark three-month futures little-changed near $14,000 a ton in London after touching lows since August. The result amounted to pushback against President Trump. Read →
Corn hits 4-month low on ample supply, peace hopes
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 4
Chicago corn extended losses to a four-month low as an outlook for ample US supply and prospects for peace in the Black Sea region weighed on prices. StoneX Group lifted its US corn production forecast to 16.203 billion bushels from 16.115 billion. Read →
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In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Nat Gas 1NGL/LPG & Petchems 4Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 3Coal 1Agriculture 3Fertilizers 3Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 2Shipping & Freight 3Environment 2On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 5Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Podcasts 1Prediction Markets
Markets News
| Oil | Oil 101 |
What's moving · Physical oil prices tumble as Persian Gulf crude flows recover, pressuring benchmarks amid US-Iran diplomacy hopes.
Cash WTI 101.31 -0.99 | Cash Brent 104.48 -1.74 | Cash Br–TI 3.17 -0.75 |
Physical cash prices from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Dec 2026 |
95.14 | -1.0% -0.95 |
+65.7% | +59.6% | +20.7% |
| Brent Jan 2027 |
102.04 | -1.5% -1.56 |
+67.7% | +60.6% | +26.7% |
| RBOB Gasoline Dec 2026 |
2.907 | -1.0% -0.029 |
+67.6% | +49.7% | +24.7% |
| Heating Oil Dec 2026 |
4.503 | -0.6% -0.027 |
+112% | +85.1% | +87.1% |
| RBOB Crk $/bbl |
26.93 | -1.0% -0.27 |
+74.6% +11.51 |
+22.7% +4.98 |
+40.9% +7.82 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
93.99 | -0.2% -0.20 |
+197% +62.34 |
+121% +51.43 |
+322% +71.72 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
49.29 | -0.5% -0.25 |
+137% +28.45 |
+71.0% +20.46 |
+144% +29.12 |
Physical oil prices tumble on recovering Gulf flows.
Bloomberg · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Rebounding Persian Gulf crude exports are driving physical cargo prices sharply lower across Middle East, North Sea and African grades. Futures also retreated but the physical market drop has been steeper, signaling near-term supply outpacing demand for the first time since July. Read →
Oil settles lower on US-Iran diplomacy hopes.
Farhan Rafid and Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Brent for January delivery settled down 1.1% at $103.60/bbl and WTI December slipped 0.4% to $96.09/bbl. US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island were offset by ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. Read →
BPCL buys 1M barrels of WTI crude.
Reuters · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
India's Bharat Petroleum purchased 1 million barrels of US WTI for Mumbai discharge in late December to early January at roughly $18/bbl premium to dated Brent. The deal reflects shifting sourcing as Middle East grades become more competitive amid easing freight costs. Read →
Gulf oil flows dip in October from high.
Reuters · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Combined crude, condensate and product exports averaged 17.1 million bpd in October, down from 18.9 million bpd in September per Vortexa, though still well above wartime lows. Crude and condensate held at about 86% of pre-war levels while refined products remained at roughly half. Read →
Charts of the dayNetbacks by region and grade Nov 2026via @CRUDEOIL231 on X · 161 likesSourced regional netback chart for crude grades showing how freight and diffs erode refiner margins despite strong cracks, key for oil profitability
El Niño strength Nov 2026via @Ole_S_Hansen
Chile copper output forecast 2026-27via @mining
Check out Oil 101.
| US Natural Gas | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · US natgas futures rise 2% as Lower 48 output falls to 110 bcfd in November and heads toward a five-month low.
Cash Henry Hub 2.515 +0.007 |
Physical cash price from Prism.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub Dec 2026 |
2.905 | +0.3% +0.010 |
-21.2% | -31.4% | -49.2% |
US natgas futures climb 2% on falling output
Reuters · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
Front-month December futures rose 6.5 cents to $2.921/MMBtu as LSEG data showed average Lower 48 output at 110 bcfd so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October. Daily output is tracking toward a five-month low of 108.1 bcfd. LNG feedgas flows also eased to 17.7 bcfd from 18.4 bcfd in October. Read →
Check out NatGas 101.
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| Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane settled at 119.6¢/gal Tuesday on export strength and winter inventory draws.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.355 | +2.7% +0.009 |
+49.7% | +33.2% | -18.1% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.196 | -0.8% -0.010 |
+93.8% | +85.2% | -12.4% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.979 | -0.9% -0.019 |
+166% | +127% | +24.7% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.992 | -0.8% -0.017 |
+156% | +119% | +25.6% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.179 | -0.5% -0.011 |
+85.9% | +74.1% | +18.0% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 16 | +1 | +17 | +18 | +11 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 93 | -1 | +65 | +67 | +9 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -622 | +13 | -320 | -292 | -222 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -274 | +1 | -110 | -74 | -250 |
| C5 as % WTI | 96 | +1 | +11 | +8 | -2 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
Energy Transfer posts record NGL volumes, raises 2026 EBITDA guidance
Energy Transfer · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Energy Transfer reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $5.03 billion, up 31% year-over-year, with NGL transportation volumes rising 5.7% to 2.63 million barrels per day and fractionation volumes up 5.4%. NGL exports increased 9%. The company raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $19.7 to 19.9 billion. Strong terminal and fractionation margins supported the NGL segment amid higher export activity at Nederland and Marcus Hook. Read →
MPLX beats Q3 estimates on midstream volumes
Seeking Alpha · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
MPLX reported Q3 EPS of $1.15, beating estimates by $0.02, with revenue of $3.61 billion. The midstream operator highlighted strong NGL and natural gas gathering and processing volumes. Management discussed ongoing expansion in the Permian and Appalachia NGL systems supporting fractionation and export flows. Read →
Dorian LPG orders three new VLGCs for 2030 delivery
World Ports Organization · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Dorian LPG ordered three 90,000m³ dual-fuel Panamax VLGCs from Hanwha Ocean for delivery in June, September and December 2030 at a total cost of around $345 million. The vessels feature LPG-capable engines and energy-saving designs to improve efficiency on long-haul routes. The order supports flexibility through the Panama Canal locks amid ongoing capacity constraints. Read →
US LPG cargoes to Asia sustain record VLGC rates
European Maritime Finance · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Asian buyers continued relying on long-haul US LPG cargoes as Middle East Gulf exports remained around 30% of pre-conflict levels. VLGC spot earnings stayed elevated, with one-year timecharter rates around $108,000 per day. Panama Canal restrictions eased slightly but capacity stayed below normal, supporting firm freight through winter. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: NGLs section.
| Global Nat Gas & LNG | NatGas 101 |
What's moving · TTF falls sharply to €93/MWh on milder weather easing near-term demand, low but stable EU storage at 74%, amid ongoing Middle East LNG supply risks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
88.65 | -3.2% -2.95 |
+217% | +180% | +21.6% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
29.24 | -3.2% -0.97 |
+217% | +180% | +21.6% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
31.76 | +0.2% +0.06 |
+231% | +185% | -0.8% |
EU gas storage · gas day Mon, Nov 2
EU gas storage is 74.3% full, 842 TWh in store, 15.6 points below the five-year average for this date and 8.6 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 60.8%.
EU full 74.3% -0.24 pts d/d | Year ago 82.9% | 5-yr avg 89.9% same date |
Germany 60.8% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF falls on warmer forecasts and solid LNG supply
World Energy News · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
The Dutch TTF front-month contract fell 0.30 euros to 34.76 €/MWh amid warmer European temperature forecasts curbing demand. LNG send-out to northwest Europe is rising to 2,179 GWh/d while EU storage sits at 38.5% full, pressuring prices lower despite inventories below the five-year average. The move is viewed as potentially overdone given upside winter risks. Read →
IEA flags EU storage risk below 10% by March 2027
Elias Al Helou · Economy Global · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
The IEA projects EU storage could drop below 10% of capacity by end-March 2027 if winter is colder than average and Hormuz LNG disruptions persist. Global LNG supply is forecast to contract nearly 20 bcm in 2026, the steepest annual decline on record, keeping TTF and JKM elevated. Europe enters winter with inventories at their lowest since 2013. Read →
EU storage at 74.6% as first winter withdrawals begin
Ben Aris · bne IntelliNews · Wed, Nov 3, 2026
EU gas storage reached 74.56% full on November 1 after five straight days of net withdrawals, the lowest seasonal peak since 2011 records began. Nine of 18 reporting countries saw drawdowns, with France, Italy and the Netherlands leading outflows. LNG supplied 42.4% of EU gas January-October, underscoring reliance on imports amid low buffers. Read →
Check out NatGas 101: LNG section.
| Power | Power 101 |
What's moving · PJM delays data-center backstop auction after FERC partial approval and lowered load forecasts cut target sharply.
PJM backstop target may shrink sharply on lower forecasts.
Utility Dive · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
PJM filed revisions to its reliability backstop procurement on Oct. 29 after FERC partially approved the original plan. Utilities lowered near-term large-load forecasts by 6.5 GW, potentially shrinking the target from 6.8 GW to as little as 630 MW. The auction window now closes March 28 with results in May; this eases near-term capacity price pressure but highlights ongoing uncertainty in data-center-driven load growth. Read →
FERC delays PJM data-center backstop auction over flawed filing.
Utility Dive · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
PJM postponed its planned reliability backstop procurement auction for data centers after FERC only partly approved the proposal and criticized the late filing. The auction aimed to procure up to 6.8 GW to address a shortfall from the 2028/29 capacity auction. PJM now plans a revised filing; the delay leaves a reliability gap amid surging large-load demand. Read →
FirstEnergy data center pipeline hits 26 GW in Q3.
Utility Dive · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
FirstEnergy reported its data-center load pipeline rose 4.8% to 26 GW in Q3, with contracted load at 7.9 GW. The utility seeks approval for a 1.2 GW gas-fired project plus solar in West Virginia and is soliciting another 3 GW. Data centers will drive at least 25% higher transmission spending, underscoring accelerating AI-driven demand in PJM territory. Read →
Check out Power 101.
| Coal | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Coal prices correct lower as Europe wind surge and China supply rise pressure thermal benchmarks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API2 Rotterdam $/t |
138.65 | -1.1% -1.55 |
+42.3% | +42.4% | -6.3% |
| Newcastle $/t |
147.50 | – | +39.5% | +31.4% | -7.2% |
Grindrod to begin coal haulage on Transnet rail in 2027
Reuters · Tue, Nov 3, 1:45 PM ET
Grindrod will haul about 288,000 metric tons of coal annually from Mpumalanga mines to Mozambique's Matola Terminal starting 2027 under a new Transnet access agreement. The deal is part of efforts to add 20 million tons of private freight capacity yearly toward a 250 million ton rail target by 2029. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: coal section.
| Agriculture | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Corn hits four-month low at $4.42¼/bushel on record US crop and export worries.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn Dec 2026 |
441 | -0.4% -2 |
+0.1% | +1.3% | -21.2% |
| Wheat Dec 2026 |
600 | +0.0% +0 |
+18.3% | +8.1% | -22.5% |
| Soybeans Jan 2027 |
1,204 | -0.8% -10 |
+16.8% | +7.5% | -0.5% |
| Sugar Mar 2027 |
18.39 | +0.3% +0.06 |
+22.5% | +30.3% | -6.3% |
| Coffee Dec 2026 |
280.5 | -1.2% -3.5 |
-19.6% | -32.2% | +34.4% |
| Cocoa Dec 2026 |
5,368 | -0.8% -46 |
-11.5% | -16.1% | +120% |
| Cotton Dec 2026 |
78.63 | +2.1% +1.59 |
+22.9% | +21.1% | -32.2% |
Corn hits four-month low on record US crop, export lag
Tom Polansek · Reuters · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
CBOT December corn fell 6 cents to $4.42¼/bushel, its lowest since July 2. USDA confirmed flash sales of 315,000 mt corn to Mexico and 136,000 mt to South Korea for 2026/27, plus 134,000 mt soybeans to unknown buyers, yet overall export pace lags last year amid Brazil competition and 88% US soybean harvest complete. Traders cite ample US supplies and soft non-China demand as the driver. Read →
Raw sugar hits one-month low as funds trim longs
Reuters · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
ICE raw sugar fell 3% to 18.49 cents/lb after touching 18.39 cents, a one-month low. Funds scaled back longs amid Brazilian real weakness prompting mill hedge selling and strong Indian October production. White sugar dropped 1.6% to $501.30/mt; cocoa and arabica coffee also eased while robusta exports from Vietnam rose 18.8% year-to-date. Read →
Wheat and corn futures ease on harvest, peace talks
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
CBOT wheat fell 0.62% to $6.02¾/bushel near a four-month low and corn 0.84% to $4.44½/bushel, its lowest since July 6. US corn harvest reached 74% complete and soybeans 88% as of Sunday. Kremlin confirmation of Russia-Ukraine-US peace talks Nov 10 to 11 in Abu Dhabi tempered Black Sea supply concerns. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: agriculture section.
| Fertilizers | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Egyptian urea at $535/t FOB on 20% gas cuts to Kima and Mopco plants while ammonia imports from Trinidad fall 34%.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea | |||||
| China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,738 | +0.2% +3 |
-0.6% | +6.6% | -27.2% |
| Brazil CFR $/t |
477.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+17.2% | +12.9% | -42.6% |
| US Gulf FOB $/st |
430.75 | -0.7% -3.25 |
+11.4% | +8.3% | -42.4% |
| DAP | |||||
| NOLA FOB $/st |
797.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+27.6% | +8.1% | +9.6% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
Egypt urea hits $535/t FOB amid 20% gas cuts to plants
EnterpriseAM Egypt · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Egyptian granular urea November contracts cleared at about $535/t FOB, up 17% from September levels and the highest among major origins. State-owned Kima reported a 20% cut in natural gas supplies starting November 1, with Mopco adjusting operations to available volumes. Egypt remains the priciest supplier ahead of China at $430/t and other Middle East origins at $450/t, tightening nitrogen availability for importers. Read →
Trinidad ammonia imports to US drop 34% as prices surge
Curtis Williams and Ed White · Reuters · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
US Midwest ammonia prices climbed to around $875 per short ton after rising more than 30% since late June. Ammonia imports from Trinidad fell 34% this year due to ongoing natural gas shortages constraining the island's production. The shortfall adds to broader supply tightness from Middle East disruptions, raising costs for US corn growers ahead of the 2027 planting season. Read →
CVR Partners posts Q3 loss as nitrogen prices rise
Seeking Alpha / Company Release · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
CVR Partners reported a Q3 net loss of $11 million on $146 million revenue, down from $43 million profit a year earlier, with EBITDA at $20 million. Average realized ammonia prices rose 20% year-over-year to $637 per ton while UAN prices fell 11% to $309 per ton. The company cited steadily increasing nitrogen fertilizer prices since summer fill programs and strong customer demand. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: fertilizer section.
| Base Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · LME tin drops over 4% while copper, zinc, aluminum and lead fall 1 to 3% overnight on macro risk-off and US midterm uncertainty.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,253 | +1.0% +139 |
+14.9% | +30.3% | +49.5% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,249 | -0.6% -84 |
+12.2% | +31.7% | +46.0% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,092 | -0.3% -9 |
+3.9% | +15.9% | +11.2% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,372 | -0.4% -13 |
+12.3% | +20.9% | +1.0% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,432 | -0.3% -54 |
-8.9% | +3.0% | -23.1% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,116 | +0.0% +0 |
-4.0% | -2.1% | -2.8% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
46,778 | -2.8% -1,364 |
+11.4% | +32.0% | +19.1% |
LME tin leads base-metals rout with 4.5% drop; copper and zinc fall over 2%.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
Overnight LME tin fell as much as 4.54% while LME copper declined 2.16%, LME zinc 2.76%, SHFE tin 2.95%, LME aluminum 1.73% and LME lead 1.05%. The broad sell-off followed subdued risk sentiment ahead of US midterms and mixed Middle East diplomacy, with bearish positioning increasing on LME copper. Read →
LME copper closes down 2.03% as bearish bets rise amid high premiums.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
LME copper closed at $14,325.5/mt, down 2.03%, with open interest rising on increased bearish positions. SHFE copper fell 0.64%. Spot premiums in Shanghai stayed elevated at an average 1,300 yuan/mt despite the price drop, as downstream buyers stayed cautious and supply remained tight. Read →
SHFE tin falls 2.95% and LME tin 4.48% as positions build on downside.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
The SHFE tin contract settled 2.95% lower at 351,760 yuan/mt and LME tin 4.48% lower at $47,435/mt. Low LME inventories at 3,970 mt and smelter maintenance in China continue to support a floor, but macro pressure and tandem weakness with SHFE drove the sell-off. Read →
SHFE aluminum falls 0.76% and LME aluminum 1.82% on mixed signals.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
The SHFE aluminum contract closed down 0.76% at 22,940 yuan/mt and LME aluminum 1.82% at $3,040.5/mt. China’s low ingot inventories provide support while overseas supply recovery and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on prices, pointing to range-bound trading. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: base metals section.
| Iron Ore & Steel | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures rebound to 680 yuan/t on Lunar New Year restocking bets as SGX hovers near $91.5/t support.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
90.4 | +0.7% +0.6 |
-10.2% | -7.8% | +4.2% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
395 | -0.3% -1 |
+0.1% | +2.7% | -37.9% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
413 | +0.1% +1 |
+0.3% | +0.8% | -39.3% |
DCE iron ore rebounds on China Lunar New Year restocking bets.
Finimize · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
DCE’s most-traded iron ore contract rose 1.27% to 680 yuan per ton, briefly hitting 682.5 yuan, the highest since Oct. 29. SGX December contract hovered around $91.5 per ton near technical support. Traders positioned for steel mills to rebuild inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, though seaborne supply growth and soft coking coal prices cap upside. Read →
Iron ore prices stabilise as China hot metal output falls only 0.2%.
Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson · Reuters · Mon, Nov 3, 2026
SGX December iron ore rose 0.31% to $91.05 per ton and DCE settled down 0.07% at 674.5 yuan. Average daily hot metal output among surveyed Chinese steelmakers fell just 0.2% week-on-week to 2.32 million tons as of Oct. 29 despite maintenance and northern output curbs. Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures declined on the Shanghai exchange. Read →
74% of 2026 iron ore growth from non-Big Four miners.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Tue, Nov 4, 2026
Sixteen major miners added 23 Mt in the first nine months of 2026; the Big Four (Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Vale) contributed only 0.6 Mt. MinRes Onslow and Guinea’s Simandou supplied 20.4 Mt of the increase. Big Four shipments may stay high in Q4 with unchanged full-year guidance. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: steel section.
| Precious Metals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Gold jumps above $4,000 on Democratic midterm sweep, weaker dollar and yields.
| Futures | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Dec 2026 |
4,056 | +2.9% +115 |
-6.6% | +1.6% | +126% |
| Silver Dec 2026 |
52.18 | +4.9% +2.42 |
-25.6% | +9.0% | +118% |
| Platinum Jan 2027 |
1,468 | +2.7% +38 |
-27.8% | -5.5% | +42.8% |
| Palladium Dec 2026 |
995 | +6.5% +61 |
-39.0% | -31.1% | -50.1% |
Gold surges above $4,000 after Democrats win Congress control.
Bloomberg · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Spot gold rose as much as 2.5% to near $4,030 an ounce after Democrats secured control of both US House and Senate in midterm elections, weakening the dollar and Treasury yields. Silver gained up to 4.1% toward $52. Markets viewed the result as reducing prospects for expansive fiscal policy under the current administration. Read →
Central banks bought 321 tons gold in Q3 as jewelry demand fell.
Giulia Petroni · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
The World Gold Council said central banks added 321 metric tons of gold in Q3, the fastest pace since late 2024, driven by portfolio diversification and risk management. Year-to-date purchases reached 675 tons, 6% above the prior year. Jewelry consumption dropped 17% year-on-year to its weakest Q3 on record due to high prices. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: gold section.
| Rare Earths & Critical Minerals | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · NdPr oxide prices fell in China on Nov 3 to 4 while heavy REE premiums hold at 10 to 16x domestic levels amid Nov 10 control deadline uncertainty.
China NdPr prices drop Nov 3; heavy REE Western premiums stay elevated.
Daniel · Rare Earth Exchanges · Mon, Nov 3, 2026
On November 3, 2026, NdPr oxide prices declined in China while dysprosium and terbium quotations held steady. Western buyers face dysprosium at $2,500, $5,500/kg and terbium at $10,000, $13,000/kg versus far lower domestic Chinese rates, underscoring supply scarcity outside China for permanent-magnet applications. Read →
China rare-earth export pause deadline remains Nov 10 despite Jan 10 truce state
Radial Magnets · Mon, Nov 3, 2026
As of November 3, 2026, China’s one-year pause on expanded October 2025 rare-earth export controls is still set to end November 10 under Announcement No. 70, with no published MOFCOM extension despite diplomatic statements extending a broader US-China truce to January 10, 2027. April 2025 licensing on seven medium/heavy rare earths including dysprosium and terbium remains in force, while Chinese magnet shipments to the US stay below pre-truce levels and Pr-Nd prices show softening pressure. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: rare earths section.
| Shipping & Freight | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index falls to 2,590, a 2.2% drop to over 2-week low as capesize rates ease on softer iron ore demand.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLCC TD3C MEG to China |
$1.41M | +4.5% | +992% | 234.9 | 32.05 |
| Suezmax TD20 WAF to UKC |
$418k | -2.7% | +495% | 118.3 | 16.14 |
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$230k | +9.8% | +262% | 133.8 | 18.25 |
| LR2 TC1 MEG to Japan |
$304k | -7.7% | +781% | 199.9 | 26.83 |
| LR1 TC5 MEG to Japan |
$223k | -8.9% | +758% | 211.1 | 23.72 |
| MR TC18 USG to Brazil |
$85k | +36.7% | +178% | 114.8 | 13.51 |
| MR TC7 Singapore to Aus |
$76k | -3.5% | +278% | 104.8 | 14.07 |
Report of Oct 29, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism.
Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd send ME1 India-Europe service via Suez Canal
Reuters · Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Maersk announced the ME1 joint service with Hapag-Lloyd will resume transits through the Suez Canal on the India-Europe route starting early November, replacing the Cape of Good Hope routing used since late 2023. The first westbound sailing departs Salalah on November 4. The move is the latest in a phased return of Gemini Cooperation services, subject to ongoing Red Sea security monitoring, shortening transit times for Indian cargo to Europe. Read →
Baltic Dry Index falls 2.2% to 2,590, lowest since Oct 19
Trading Economics / Baltic Exchange · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
The Baltic Dry Index eased for a second straight session, down 58 points or 2.2% to 2,590 points, its lowest level since October 19. Capesize rates fell 3.6% to 3,821 points amid lower iron ore prices and increased supply from major producers with sluggish Chinese demand; Panamax dropped 0.4% to 1,866 points, extending a 15-session losing streak, while supramax slipped 0.5% to 1,846 points. Read →
Hormuz traffic hits 3-month high in October despite attacks
S&P Global Commodities at Sea / World Ports Org · Tue, Nov 2, 2026
Strait of Hormuz shipping transits rose to their highest monthly level since July, with 750 total crossings in October versus 749 in September, supported by higher dry-bulk and LNG movements even as VLCC traffic declined. Red Sea/Bab al-Mandab traffic also increased to 1,196 transits. The gains occurred amid ongoing regional security threats, with bulk carriers reaching their highest crossings since June. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: shipping section.
| Environment | Commodities 101 |
What's moving · EUAs hit fresh 9-month high above €90 then fell amid volatility, US midterms and Gulf diplomacy.
EUAs hit 9-month high then fell on volatility
Alessandro Vitelli · Carbon Pulse · Tue, Nov 3, 5:19 PM ET
EU carbon allowances reached another nine-month high Tuesday morning before closing lower. Trading turned volatile with focus on US midterm elections and diplomatic activity in the Persian Gulf. The moves follow Monday's surge above €90 driven by FOMO buying despite softer energy prices. Read →
RGGI Q3 emissions top 30 MtCO2 after Virginia return
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET
Emissions covered by the US Northeast and Mid-Atlantic power sector carbon market RGGI exceeded 30 million short tons of CO2 in Q3. The rise followed Virginia’s return to the program this summer. Updated data highlighted the impact on allowance demand in the regional market. Read →
Check out Commodities 101: carbon section.
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hong Kong plans 400-ounce gold token for interbank trading, while CFTC greenlights tokenized collateral and blockchain records for commodities firms.
Hong Kong plans 400-oz gold token for interbank trades
Xinmei Shen · South China Morning Post · Mon, Nov 3, 2026
Hong Kong Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui announced plans for an interbank tokenized gold token representing a standard 400-ounce bullion bar, using the city’s HAU price reference and paired with tokenized deposits. The move builds on HKMA’s Project Ensemble pilot and recent cross-bank tokenized gold transactions by Ant Digital Technologies and others. It advances Hong Kong’s goal of becoming a global gold and digital-asset trading hub by enabling faster, lower-cost settlements. Read →
CFTC allows tokenized assets and blockchain records for commodities firms
CryptoSynk · Thu, Nov 4, 2026
CFTC staff updated FAQs confirming futures commission merchants and derivatives clearing organizations may invest customer funds in tokenized forms of permitted assets if they convey equivalent legal and economic rights. The guidance also states the agency does not object to using blockchain or distributed ledger technology for recordkeeping under Regulations 1.31 and 45.2, provided records remain authentic and retrievable. Chairman Michael Selig highlighted the updates as part of ongoing efforts to provide regulatory clarity for crypto and tokenized markets. Read →
Onchain commodity perps see weekend oil volume over $1B
The Markets Cafe · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 commodity and macro perpetuals market hit record volumes, with onchain oil futures now exceeding $1 billion daily on weekends when traditional exchanges are closed. Silver, WTI crude, Brent and gold led activity, drawing traders from traditional finance seeking 24/7 macro exposure. Industry voices note onchain venues serve as a price-discovery layer overnight, though CME oil futures still dominate with $100 to 300 billion daily notional liquidity. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Refining margins and LNG asset trades drive Corporate & Deals as Marathon sells two plants to CVR for $4.2B and Shell offloads NWS stake to XRG.
Marathon sells two refineries to CVR for $4.2B
Reuters · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Marathon Petroleum agreed to sell the 105,000 bpd St. Paul Park, Minnesota and 72,000 bpd Mandan, North Dakota refineries plus related midstream and marketing assets to CVR Energy for about $4.2 billion. Marathon beat Q3 estimates on refining margins that jumped to $45.70 per barrel. Proceeds will fund Gulf Coast reinvestment while CVR nearly doubles its capacity to 384,000 bpd. Read →
Shell sells NWS stake to ADNOC's XRG for $1.45B
Reuters · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
Shell agreed to sell its 16.67% non-operated interest in Australia's North West Shelf LNG project to XRG, the investment arm of ADNOC, for $1.45 billion plus milestone payments. The deal gives XRG its first Australian asset and shifts decommissioning obligations. Shell will close the transaction in 2027 as it focuses capital on higher-return integrated gas positions. Read →
Moeve sells Algerian oil assets to Pertamina
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
Moeve, majority-owned by Abu Dhabi's Mubadala, agreed to sell its minority stakes in three Algerian onshore oil fields in the Berkine Basin to Indonesia's Pertamina. The divestment marks Moeve's exit from all upstream oil production assets as it accelerates its shift to low-carbon businesses under an €8 billion plan. Read →
BP hires Shell's Emma Lewis for downstream role
Reuters · Wed, Nov 4, 2026
BP appointed Emma Lewis, Shell's former executive vice president of chemicals, as executive vice president of its downstream business effective January 2027. Lewis will oversee refining, terminals, pipelines, mobility and bioenergy. The hire supports CEO Meg O'Neill's push to strengthen BP's refining and fuels operations. Read →
TotalEnergies inks 5-year LNG deal with ADNOC Gas
Reuters · Tue, Nov 3, 2026
TotalEnergies agreed to buy up to 1.6 million tonnes of LNG from ADNOC Gas over five years, with first deliveries expected in 2026. The deal builds on their existing partnership and supports TotalEnergies' position as a major LNG portfolio supplier. ADNOC Gas highlighted growing global LNG demand and its competitive supply position. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump's Graham Act waiver keeps Russian diesel flows open, easing US fuel prices ahead of midterms.
Trump Russia tariff waiver aids Apple, hurts fertilizer firms
Benzinga · Sat, Oct 18, 2026
The executive order waiving sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act removes the threat of steep duties on goods from top Russian energy buyers. This benefits companies like Apple with supply chains in China and India but eliminates a potential cost advantage for US fertilizer producers CF Industries and CVR Partners that compete with Russian or sanctioned sources. The move supports broader diesel import plans amid elevated fuel prices. Read →
Trump lifts phosphate fertilizer tariffs from Morocco
Grace Yarrow · E&E News by POLITICO · Mon, Jun 30, 2026
President Trump signed an executive order removing countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco (and Russia in prior context) to address supply disruptions and price spikes. The action responds to agricultural demand pressures exacerbated by geopolitical events affecting trade routes. It directly lowers input costs for US farmers reliant on imported phosphate. Read →
CFTC scrutinizes oil trading amid Iran conflict
Bloomberg · Fri, Oct 23, 2026
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated the agency is actively reviewing oil trading activity since the start of the Iran conflict in March. Enforcement focus includes spikes around key geopolitical events and policy shifts. The oversight targets potential manipulation or irregularities in energy commodity markets during heightened volatility. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Hormuz talks stall, oil traders eye weekend premium
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 4
Traders on X discuss stalled Qatar-mediated talks between US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran rejecting US demands. Oil prices fluctuate around $104 Brent and $97 WTI as diplomacy weighs against escalation risks. #OOTT community highlights potential weekend fear premium driving WTI toward $98 before possible Monday pullback. Read →
MRPL boosts delivered oil buys amid Hormuz war risks
X / @staunovo · Wed, Nov 4
Commodity analyst notes India's MRPL increasing delivered oil purchases as Iran conflict raises shipping and insurance risks. Sellers absorb war premiums, widening delivered differentials for Asian refiners. #OOTT discussion ties this to broader physical market shifts from Hormuz disruptions. Read →
r/oil debates Hormuz blockade and oil inventories
r/oil · Wed, Nov 4
Retail traders in r/oil discuss ongoing Hormuz blockade impacts, API inventory draws, low SPR levels, and price volatility post-midterms. Threads cover tanker risks, potential diplomatic resolutions, and positioning for oil above or below $100 amid geopolitical news. Read →
Midterms viewed as anti-war signal in Tehran
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 4
#OOTT and energy accounts link US midterm results to Democratic gains and perceived voter pushback on Iran escalation. Discussions note implications for oil sanctions, Hormuz diplomacy, and Texas energy policy shifts under new political landscape. Read →
Oil futures 51% net long amid balanced physicals
X / multiple traders · Wed, Nov 4
Traders cite Andreas Steno analysis on X: physical oil market balanced, so lower shipping/insurance costs could drive prices down sharply. Futures positioning at 51% net long sparks debate on whether risk premium holds or unwinds with diplomacy progress. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
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Grain markets pressured by oil, election
Arlan Suderman, StoneX on American Ag Network · Tue, Nov 3
Crude weakness and post-election uncertainty weigh on grains despite improving export sales. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
11%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
US Diesel Export Ban
Would cut US distillate exports, widen the US-Europe diesel spread and hit Gulf Coast refining margins. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
US announces a diesel export ban by December 31
9%
-9pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
9%
-6pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the December meeting
78%
+1pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
6%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
16%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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