Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · NGLs · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Fertilizers · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Thursday, October 15, 2026 · 49 stories
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Markets at a glance
Charts: grey is the prior session, color is today.
Macro
|
S&P 500 Fut
7,750
-0.3%
-21 |
Dollar Index
102.01
-0.5%
-0.54 |
EUR/USD
1.1230
+0.7%
+0.0073 |
US 10Y Yield
5.190
-2.7 bp
|
Last price as of Thu, Oct 15, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures; the dollar index, EUR/USD and the 10-year yield are cash. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Brent $104.05, down $2.01 (-1.9%) and WTI Crude $95.00, down $0.09 (-0.1%). Big unexpected 11mil bbl drop in US crude inventories in weekly API data yesterday. US weekly EIA oil report is due today at 12noon ET (delayed a day due to the holiday schedule). Market awaiting confirmation of big API number. US (WTI) oil market is tightening vs Europe/Asia (Brent).
Cocoa up $208 (+3.6%) on dry weather deepening supply concerns in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Palladium up $29 (+2.6%).
US Nat Gas up $0.068 (+2.1%) on persistent post-hurricane Gulf of Mexico supply disruptions and near-record LNG export feedgas flows.
Isobutane up $0.038 (+2.1%).
Tin down $1049 (-2.1%) on rising US rate-hike expectations and stronger dollar pressuring high-beta assets.
Cocoa up $208 (+3.6%) on dry weather deepening supply concerns in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Palladium up $29 (+2.6%).
US Nat Gas up $0.068 (+2.1%) on persistent post-hurricane Gulf of Mexico supply disruptions and near-record LNG export feedgas flows.
Isobutane up $0.038 (+2.1%).
Tin down $1049 (-2.1%) on rising US rate-hike expectations and stronger dollar pressuring high-beta assets.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Central banks buy record gold; new highs seen in 2 years
Financial Times · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Central banks in September made their highest monthly purchases of gold for almost two years. Investors now forecast new record prices for the metal within the next two years amid ongoing global instability. Read →
Oil majors face $32bn dilemma on Iran war cash
Financial Times · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
World’s largest crude companies hold extra cash from soaring energy prices due to the Iran conflict. Investors are watching how majors plan to deploy the roughly $32 billion windfall. Read →
Refinery margins slump on high input costs
Financial Times · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
European refinery profits have slumped sharply as crude input costs rise. The margin collapse raises the prospect of output cuts even as refined product prices stay elevated. Read →
Copper drops third day on hot US inflation data
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Copper on the LME fell 1.1% to $14,329.50 a ton after stronger-than-expected US CPI data. The hot inflation print fueled bets on more aggressive Fed tightening and a broader risk-off move. Read →
IEA warns global diesel shortage to mid-2027
Financial Times · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
The International Energy Agency warned that a global shortage of diesel will last until mid-2027. Persistent supply disruptions from conflicts are keeping fuel markets tight. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 5US Natural Gas 4Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 4Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 2Coal 2Agriculture 4Fertilizers 1Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 2Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 1Corporate & Deals 2Regulation & Government 3Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 4Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Oil retreats over 1% as Hormuz attacks offset US shadow-fleet sanctions relief and big US crude draw.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 95.00 | -0.1% -0.09 |
+65.4% | +65.3% | +15.5% |
| Brent | 104.05 | -1.9% -2.01 |
+71.0% | +70.4% | +22.6% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.194 | -2.0% -0.065 |
+80.9% | +70.3% | +24.1% |
| Heating Oil | 4.801 | -2.6% -0.127 |
+119% | +115% | +80.1% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
39.16 | -6.3% -2.65 |
+134% +22.41 |
+83.6% +17.83 |
+51.5% +13.31 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
106.63 | -4.7% -5.24 |
+206% +71.79 |
+194% +70.40 |
+259% +76.94 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
61.65 | -5.4% -3.51 |
+171% +38.87 |
+135% +35.35 |
+127% +34.52 |
Oil falls as Hormuz attacks offset US sanctions relief
Sam Li and Lewis Jackson · Reuters · Thu, Oct 15, 1:30 AM ET
Brent fell $1.64 or 1.6% to $104.42/bbl and WTI dropped 98 cents or 1% to $94.11/bbl in early Thursday trade. Two ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz after projectile strikes amid surging Iranian attacks, while the Trump administration weighs easing sanctions on shadow-fleet tankers to cut freight costs. API data showed a surprise 11.1 million barrel US crude stock draw last week, larger than expected, but prices failed to rally on the bullish inventory news. Read →
Oil slips as IEA flags weaker 2026 demand
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 15, 12:38 AM ET
Brent slid toward $104/bbl and WTI near $94 after rising earlier in the week. The IEA's October Oil Market Report cut its 2026 global oil demand forecast to a 2.6 mb/d decline, with diesel accounting for 25% of the drop due to high prices and war disruptions. Renewed Gulf attacks leave the September supply recovery fragile despite higher OPEC+ output. Read →
Oil holds gains amid Mideast and Russia strikes
Kanoko Matsuyama · Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 14, 10:02 PM ET
Brent settled around $106/bbl and WTI near $95 after a 1% gain Wednesday. Houthi attacks hit a Saudi Aramco building in Dhahran and a cargo ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz from unknown projectiles, while Russia accused Ukraine of striking two oil refineries. The IEA warned diesel markets will stay tight into 2027 as global inventories sit near decade lows. Read →
Oil falls on Mideast tensions and IEA report
CNBC · Thu, Oct 15, 4:09 AM ET
Brent December futures dropped 1.66% to $104.31/bbl and November WTI fell 1.09% to $94.05/bbl. A Singapore-registered ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran said it is counting the moments until striking US warships. The IEA October report cautioned diesel constraints will persist into next year amid fresh Saudi attacks threatening supply recovery. Read →
IEA cuts 2026 demand forecast sharply
Economic Times · Thu, Oct 15
The IEA's October Oil Market Report forecasts world oil demand falling 2.6 mb/d in 2026, steeper than prior estimates, with diesel making up a quarter of the decline. Global supply rose 2.5 mb/d m/m to 102.3 mb/d in September on Gulf gains but is seen dropping 5.8 mb/d for the year overall. Renewed attacks leave the Middle East recovery fragile. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Mild weather and recovering output push US natgas futures lower to $3.24/MMBtu.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.266 | +2.1% +0.068 |
-11.4% | +11.2% | -39.6% |
US natgas futures ease on mild weather forecasts
Reuters · Wed, Oct 15, 2026
US natural gas futures for November delivery fell 4.6 cents to $3.237/MMBtu on Wednesday amid forecasts for milder-than-normal weather through late October and a modest rebound in daily output. Lower 48 production averaged 110.8 bcfd so far in October, down from record highs, while LNG feedgas flows eased to 17.5 bcfd. The moves cap recent gains and reflect subdued near-term demand. Read →
Rebounding output and mild forecasts send futures tumbling
Andrew Baker · Natural Gas Intelligence · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Natural gas futures moved sharply lower mid-week as production recovered from hurricane and pipeline disruptions while weather forecasts turned milder, limiting heating and cooling demand. Spot prices showed mixed regional support from LNG demand. Traders positioned ahead of the Thursday EIA storage report, with the surplus expected to narrow further. Read →
Natural gas market comeback hits a snag
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
US natural gas futures retreated Wednesday despite stronger cash prices and robust LNG feedgas demand as offshore production recovered and late-October warmth weighed on the outlook. LNG flows to major terminals remained supportive but eased month-to-date. The pullback followed a multi-day rally tied to prior supply tightness. Read →
Cove Point and Freeport restarts lift LNG feedgas to 6-month high
Chris Newman · Natural Gas Intelligence · Wed, Oct 13, 2026
US LNG feedgas demand climbed to a six-month high as Cove Point LNG returned from maintenance, Freeport LNG ramped back toward three-train operations, and Golden Pass LNG hit record intake near 0.666 Bcf/d. The rebound added support to Gulf Coast pricing and overall demand even as total monthly averages eased slightly from September peaks. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane futures settle at 102.6¢/gal (+1.8%) as seasonal heating demand and export capacity ramp support prices.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.298 | +0.5% +0.002 |
+25.8% | +11.8% | -32.2% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
1.026 | +1.8% +0.018 |
+66.3% | +57.8% | -30.6% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.681 | -0.0% -0.000 |
+126% | +105% | +2.9% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.878 | +2.1% +0.038 |
+142% | +119% | +14.8% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.174 | -0.2% -0.004 |
+85.4% | +76.5% | +12.9% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 8 | unch | +9 | +1 | unch |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 73 | +1 | +45 | +35 | -26 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -673 | +7 | -369 | -362 | -252 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -369 | +16 | -204 | -191 | -378 |
| C5 as % WTI | 96 | unch | +10 | +6 | -2 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
ET pivots 2026 capex to gas, Permian processing and NGL exports.
Rextag Corporation · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Energy Transfer guided $5.0 to 5.5B 2026 capex focused on domestic gas expansions, Mustang Draw processing additions in the Permian and the Nederland Flexport NGL export expansion adding up to 250,000 bbl/d capacity. The company paused the Lake Charles LNG project citing global oversupply concerns, separating NGL export growth as a distinct fee-based track. Read →
US LPG export expansions to exceed 1 MMb/d, easing terminal fee swings.
Emily Carter · World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Enterprise and peers are adding over 1 MMb/d of new US Gulf Coast LPG export capacity through 2028, including Neches River and expanded EHT projects. Enterprise SVP Tyler Cott noted the market will need time to absorb the capacity, likely leading to lower volatility and rates in terminal fees while supporting Asian petrochemical feedstock security. Read →
VLGC pays record $5.3M for Panama Canal transit slot.
The Maritime Executive · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
SK Gas’s VLGC G. Spirit paid a record $5.3M for a Panama Canal booking slot to move LPG from Houston Ship Channel to East Asia. The high fee reflects ongoing canal delays and strong demand for timely US LPG deliveries to China, South Korea and Japan amid tight scheduling. Read →
US ethane exports rose 12% Y/Y in 2025 while propane stayed flat.
East Daley Analytics · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
US ethane exports grew 12% year-over-year in 2025 despite mid-year China trade shocks, supported by Neches River terminal ramp and Chinese PDH demand recovery. Propane exports ended flat after early gains faded on trade uncertainty, highlighting ethane’s resilience as the lowest-cost petrochemical feedstock. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF falls 2% to €85 to 86/MWh as Norwegian flows recover, easing supply fears despite low EU storage and Hormuz risks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
85.83 | -1.5% -1.31 |
+210% | +170% | -6.8% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
28.25 | -1.5% -0.43 |
+210% | +170% | -6.8% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
26.39 | +0.4% +0.12 |
+175% | +136% | -20.7% |
EU gas storage · gas day Tue, Oct 13
EU gas storage is 74.0% full, 837 TWh in store, 14.9 points below the five-year average for this date and 9.1 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 60.1%.
EU full 74.0% +0.08 pts d/d | Year ago 83.1% | 5-yr avg 88.9% same date |
Germany 60.1% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
European gas prices ease below €86/MWh after rally.
Judith Sib-at · Trading Economics · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
European natural gas prices fell below €86 per megawatt-hour on Thursday after rallying to multi-year highs on Persian Gulf supply risks and low winter storage. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have constrained LNG flows from the Middle East. EU storage is around 74% full, below historical averages, with colder forecasts ahead limiting further downside. Read →
European gas eases as Norwegian flows recover.
World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Wholesale natural gas futures in Europe and Britain retreated on Wednesday from multi-year highs as Norwegian pipeline supply normalized after Gassco resolved short-term disruptions. The Dutch front-month TTF contract fell 1.8% to around €84.45/MWh. EU storage at 73% capacity remains low, and a cold snap forecast for northeastern Europe from next weekend curbs further price declines. Read →
TTF surges as global LNG market tightens.
Global LNG Hub · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
TTF closed yesterday at just over €87/MWh, its highest since December 2022, up nearly 20% since end-September. Short-term drivers include colder October weather forecasts boosting demand, stronger Asian buying, an unplanned Kårstø outage cutting Norwegian supply by 13 mcm/d, and Atlantic LNG maintenance. Longer-term tightness stems from Middle East geopolitics and decade-low EU storage levels. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM spot power hits $1,021/MWh as heat and maintenance trigger DOE emergency order and data-center alerts.
PJM spot hits $1,021/MWh amid heat and maintenance
Carl Surran · Seeking Alpha / Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Unseasonable warm weather across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic hit PJM during fall maintenance, with 62,000 MW offline. Spot power at the Western hub reached $1,021/MWh Tuesday afternoon; Wednesday day-ahead averaged $295.83/MWh, up 28%. The DOE issued an emergency order for Oct 13 to 16 allowing extra backup generation and directing data centers/large loads to backup power if needed; PJM came within 900 MW of reserve margin with peak demand near 113 GW. Read →
PJM issues alerts, DOE emergency order for tight supplies
Maryland Matters · Thu, Oct 14, 2026
PJM declared a Maximum Generation Alert and capacity advisory through Wednesday, recalling outages and urging plants online. The DOE emergency order lets PJM exceed environmental limits and redirect data centers to backup generation before rolling blackouts or export cuts. The grid expected to be within 900 MW of reserves amid high demand, maintenance, and exports serving 67 million people. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Asian thermal coal prices surge to two-year highs on winter stockpiling, China supply curbs and expensive gas switching.
Asian thermal coal prices hit two-year high on winter demand.
Bloomberg · Tue, Oct 13, 7:30 PM ET
Newcastle futures rose over 40% this year and closed at the highest since August 2024. Power plants are stockpiling amid supply disruptions in China and Indonesia plus a switch from expensive LNG due to Middle East tensions. The IEA now forecasts global coal consumption will rise 1.2% to a record this year. Read →
Global thermal coal prices strengthen on supply risks.
The Coal Hub · Tue, Oct 13
European indices hit 143 to 145 USD/t, a three-year high, on rising gas prices and Black Sea shipping disruptions that cut Russian and Kazakh exports by an estimated 3 million tonnes monthly. Australian high-CV thermal rose to 149 to 150 USD/t while authorities lowered volume forecasts but noted Northeast Asian demand support from high LNG prices. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · China state buyers purchase 8 to 10 US soybean cargoes, first since Trump-Xi summit, lifting futures overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 480 | -0.1% -1 |
+9.1% | +13.9% | -8.7% |
| Wheat | 673 | -0.0% -0 |
+32.7% | +33.9% | -8.3% |
| Soybeans | 1,274 | -0.3% -4 |
+23.6% | +26.0% | +4.6% |
| Sugar | 20.71 | -0.6% -0.13 |
+38.0% | +31.1% | +4.6% |
| Coffee | 296.6 | -0.5% -1.5 |
-15.0% | -24.7% | +45.8% |
| Cocoa | 5,943 | +3.6% +208 |
-2.0% | -0.8% | +128% |
| Cotton | 79.73 | -1.2% -0.93 |
+26.3% | +27.4% | -24.4% |
China state buyers snap up 8 to 10 US soybean cargoes
Ella Cao, Karl Plume · Reuters · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Chinese state-owned firms bought 8 to 10 Panamax cargoes of US soybeans for December shipment at $3.10-$3.20 premiums over January futures. This marks the first major purchases since the September Trump-Xi summit and follows a holiday-related pause. The deals signal renewed demand support for US soybeans amid ample global supplies. Read →
Soybeans rise on China buys; corn mixed on harvest data
Bruce Blythe · Farm Futures · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
November soybeans rose 8 cents overnight to $12.9175 after Reuters reported the China purchases. Corn harvest reached 33% complete, up from 23% but still behind the 39% average, with quality ratings improving 2 points to 56% good-to-excellent. Wheat futures extended weakness as planting progress advanced. Read →
Corn harvest at 33%, quality improves; soybeans at 46%
Ben Potter · Farm Futures · Tue, Oct 14, 2026
USDA's latest report showed US corn harvest at 33% complete through Oct. 11, lagging the five-year average by 6 points, while soybean harvest jumped to 46%, 4 points behind average. Corn good-to-excellent ratings rose 2 points to 56%; soybean ratings held steady at 57%. Winter wheat planting reached 51%. Read →
Wheat rebounds on Russian harvest uncertainty
Reuters via MillingandMillers.com · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Chicago wheat futures rose 0.4% after Argus cut its Russia wheat production forecast to a three-year low of 79.5 million metric tons. Uncertainty over Russia's harvest size and potential Indian imports lifted prices from two-month lows, while US harvest progress and ample supplies capped gains. Read →
Fertilizers
What's moving · Sulfur prices near $1,000/t from Hormuz disruption drive phosphate output cuts as miners outbid fertilizer makers.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea, China (ZCE) CNY/t |
1,658 | -1.4% -23 |
-5.2% | +3.6% | -46.1% |
| Urea, Egypt FOB $/t |
502.50 | +0.5% +2.50 |
-12.6% | +15.3% | -37.8% |
| Urea, Brazil CFR $/t |
476.00 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+16.8% | +12.3% | -39.0% |
| Urea, US Gulf FOB $/st |
435.00 | +0.3% +1.50 |
+12.5% | +14.6% | -38.6% |
| DAP, NOLA FOB $/st |
802.50 | +0.0% +0.00 |
+28.4% | +4.6% | +17.1% |
The 5Y column starts from the October 2021 peak, when the European gas crisis shut ammonia plants and China halted urea exports. Daily settles; these contracts barely trade, so flat days are common.
U.S. retail fertilizer prices rise again
Russ Quinn · DTN · Wed, Oct 14, 8:18 AM ET
Average U.S. retail urea reached $672 per ton, up $14 from a month ago and 12% above year-ago levels. UAN32 jumped 6% to $485 per ton, the largest monthly gain, while anhydrous ammonia hit $977 per ton, up 20% year-over-year. All eight major fertilizers tracked now cost more than a year ago as farmers prepare for the 2027 planting season. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · US hot CPI lifts rate-hike odds, sending LME copper down 1.2% and tin, nickel, zinc lower overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
14,494 | -1.3% -190 |
+16.8% | +32.6% | +38.9% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,602 | -1.1% -158 |
+15.0% | +36.7% | +53.0% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,081 | -1.1% -35 |
+3.5% | +18.0% | -1.9% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,371 | -1.0% -33 |
+12.2% | +22.5% | +7.4% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
15,435 | -1.4% -218 |
-8.9% | +1.8% | -21.4% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,162 | +0.3% +8 |
-1.9% | +2.3% | +8.4% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
49,882 | -2.1% -1,049 |
+18.8% | +41.0% | +30.3% |
Hot US CPI lifts rate-hike bets, metals fall
Reuters via Mining.com.au · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
US September CPI rose 3.7% YoY, above the 3.6% forecast and prior 3.4%, pushing Fed rate-hike odds higher and the dollar to an 18-month high. LME three-month copper fell 1.2% to $14,315.50/t after touching a three-week peak; SHFE copper dropped 1.9% to ¥108,940/t. Aluminium extended losses for a third session, with LME aluminium at $2,961/t, its lowest in over nine months, while zinc, nickel and tin also declined. Read →
Escondida union ratifies BHP deal, strike averted
Reuters · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
BHP and the supervisors’ union at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, reached a preliminary agreement with improved benefits and closing terms; 64% of union members ratified the 36-month contract. The deal removes immediate strike risk that had supported prices, though Centinela remains on strike and Codelco suspended part of El Teniente after a landslide. Read →
Shanghai copper stocks rise, premiums hold firm
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Shanghai social copper inventory reached 70,200 mt, up 3,700 mt week-on-week, and Jiangsu 22,000 mt, up 2,200 mt; SHFE warrants jumped over 10,000 mt ahead of delivery. Spot premiums averaged 85 yuan/mt against the 2610 contract, up 135 yuan/mt on the day, with limited low-priced supply supporting levels as the benchmark switches to the 2611 contract. Read →
Hot CPI drives tin prices sharply lower
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
SMM #1 tin averaged 373,350 yuan/mt, down 15,150 yuan/mt, as the SHFE tin contract fell 3.81% intraday to 371,200 yuan/mt on long liquidation. LME 3M tin slipped to $49,900/mt, breaking below $50,000, after US September CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7% YoY, boosting rate-hike probabilities. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures on SGX hit two-year low below $90/t on weak China steel demand and ample supply.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
88.8 | -0.4% -0.3 |
-11.8% | -9.1% | -13.7% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
397 | -0.3% -1 |
+0.7% | +3.5% | -49.9% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
423 | -0.3% -1 |
+2.7% | +4.2% | -47.0% |
SGX iron ore futures hit two-year low below $90/t
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
SGX iron ore futures fell as much as 0.8% to $89.75/t, the weakest since September 2024, on soft Chinese steel demand from the property slump and robust global supply including Simandou ramp-up. Prices have dropped about 15% this year as mills face thin margins and hot metal output risks further cuts. Read →
Rio Tinto Q3 iron ore sales rise 3% YoY to 90.8 Mt
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) · Wed, Oct 15, 2026
Rio Tinto reported Q3 global iron ore sales of 90.8 Mt, up 3% YoY, with Pilbara shipments at 85.7 Mt and Simandou at an annualized 10 Mtpa run-rate. The company kept full-year sales guidance unchanged at 343 to 366 Mt despite China finished steel consumption falling 4% QoQ and benchmark prices averaging lower. Read →
Rio Tinto Q3 iron ore sales up 3% YoY on Simandou
SteelOrbis · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Rio Tinto lifted Q3 global iron ore sales 3% YoY to 90.8 Mt supported by Pilbara and Simandou progress, with the Guinea project hitting 10 Mtpa annualized. China steel consumption fell 4% QoQ while exports rose, and the firm maintained 2026 guidance amid lower benchmark prices and higher freight costs. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Hot September CPI lifts Fed October rate-hike odds, pressuring gold and silver lower while yields and dollar rise.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,178 | +1.7% +70 |
-3.8% | -2.9% | +136% |
| Silver | 56.85 | +1.7% +0.97 |
-18.9% | +7.2% | +144% |
| Platinum | 1,621 | +0.4% +7 |
-20.3% | -6.5% | +53.4% |
| Palladium | 1,126 | +2.6% +29 |
-30.9% | -32.0% | -45.9% |
Hot CPI lifts Fed hike bets, gold holds losses as yields rise
Bloomberg · Thu, Oct 15, 2:24 AM ET
US September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month, the fastest since April, lifting odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month and pushing Treasury yields higher. Gold recouped some losses to trade near $4,151 an ounce after falling the prior session, while silver also gained modestly. The data reinforced expectations that energy-driven inflation could keep policy tighter, weighing on non-yielding metals. Read →
Gold settles down 1.6%, silver plunges 6.1% after hot CPI
Anthony Harrup · WSJ · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Front-month Comex gold settled 1.64% lower at $4,084.80 per ounce and silver fell 6.1% to $55.55, its lowest close in nearly 11 months, after September CPI exceeded estimates. The stronger dollar and higher yields increased the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. Attacks in the Persian Gulf lifted oil prices, adding to inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed's path. Read →
PBOC adds 23t gold in September, biggest since 2023
Ray Jia · World Gold Council · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
The People’s Bank of China added 23 tonnes of gold in September, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, extending its buying streak to 23 consecutive months and lifting Q3 purchases to 63 tonnes. Official holdings reached 2,410 tonnes. The strong official demand provides a structural floor for gold prices amid recent market volatility. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US ramps up $7.6B rare earth investments as China tightens export controls ahead of Nov 10 deadline.
US accelerates rare earth supply chain build amid China controls
Joyce Huang · VOA News · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Washington has initiated 180 projects with $7.6 billion in non-equity investment since 2025, over four times prior levels, and took a 15% stake in MP Materials via $400 million Pentagon purchase. The September US-China summit extended a trade truce only to Jan 10, 2027, leaving rare earths unresolved. MP Materials and Lynas advance domestic separation and magnet capacity while the US seeks allies and recycling to cut China dependence for magnets and defense uses. Read →
US sold rare earth refining to China, now races to rebuild
John Marshall · WebProNews · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Decades of offshoring left China with 91% of magnet rare earth refining and 94% of sintered permanent magnet production. MP Materials restarted Mountain Pass, produced record concentrate in 2025, and launched Texas magnet output, backed by Pentagon equity and offtake. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium remain almost entirely Chinese; Lynas produced just 8 metric tons combined early 2026 against thousands of tons in defense demand. The Nov 10 export control suspension deadline looms. Read →
NdPr prices surge 14% weekly on export controls
Ryan Charles · Crux Investor · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
NdPr oxide prices rose 13 to 14% in one week and over 40% year-to-date as China's export controls and quotas tighten ex-China supply. Western governments deploy billions, including $1 billion from the US Department of Energy, to accelerate processing outside China. The controls fragment markets, creating scarcity premiums that favor non-Chinese projects like MP Materials and Lynas while pressuring magnet supply chains for EVs and defense. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Capesize slump drives Baltic Dry Index to two-month low at 2,667 points on Oct 14.
| Route | $/day | Wk | 1Y | $/t | $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aframax TD25 USG to UKC |
$325k | +35.3% | +739% | $181.5 | $24.76 |
Report of Oct 8, 2026. Weekly round-voyage TCE and freight cost per tonne and per barrel; TD routes carry crude, TC routes refined products. 1Y is the $/day change; Prism's history starts in October 2023, so there is no 5Y. Source: Prism, from the E.A. Gibson tanker report.
Baltic Dry Index falls to two-month low at 2,667 points
Anushree Mukherjee · World Ports Organization · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index fell 134 points, or 4.78%, to 2,667 points on Oct 14, its lowest since July 29 and eighth straight decline. Capesize rates plunged 364 points or 9.11% to 3,630 points with daily earnings down $3,302 to $29,417, while Panamax slipped 23 points to 2,409. Iron ore futures in Dalian fell amid rising Chinese blast furnace maintenance and ample Australian/Brazilian supply. Read →
Suez Canal container capacity hits 50% of pre-crisis levels
Niels Rasmussen · BIMCO / Maritime Professional · Thu, Oct 14, 2026
Weekly container ship capacity through the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU in the first two weeks of October, exceeding 50% of 2023 levels for the first time since Houthi attacks began. BIMCO data shows 36% of Cape-or-canal routed capacity now uses the canal, up from 8% earlier in 2026, after 16 services from major alliances returned since July. Asian port congestion may delay the full supply impact. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU-UK ETS linkage seen increasingly likely at November summit, with CBAM exemption focus lifting UKAs.
EU-UK ETS linkage increasingly likely at November summit.
Carbon Pulse · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Speakers at the Carbon Forward Expo said the EU and UK are moving closer to linking their emissions trading systems at the November bilateral summit. A CBAM exemption for UK exports is a key incentive for London. Linkage would increase liquidity and reduce compliance costs for covered entities. Read →
EPA proposes reallocating 770 million biofuel credits to larger refiners.
Siddharth Cavale · Reuters · Tue, Oct 13, 2026
The EPA proposed reallocating 100% of 770 million RINs waived for small refineries in 2025 to larger refiners' 2026 and/or 2027 obligations. Two options are under comment: split evenly or all to 2027. The move aims to protect biofuel demand ahead of November elections; RIN prices eased on the news. Read →
EUAs drift lower on weaker energy prices and macro data.
Carbon Pulse · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
EUA prices eased Wednesday despite funds building net longs to an eight-week high. Weakening European energy prices and soft US economic data weighed on the market. Many traders were absent at the London expo. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid RWA perps volume surges past other categories as tokenized commodities expand into yield and oil.
Hyperliquid RWA perps volume tops all other categories.
The Markets Cafe · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Hyperliquid's weekly RWA perpetual trading volume reached $25.1 billion, exceeding all other asset categories combined and equaling 52% of its total $48.2 billion volume. RWA holders grew 32% to 1.25 million over the past month, with tokenized assets valued at $36.7 billion per RWA.xyz data. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Iran war-driven energy price surge lifts majors' refining margins and trading profits, fueling M&A and debt cuts.
TotalEnergies sees Q3 European refining margin nearly 4x YoY
Reuters · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
TotalEnergies reported its European refining margin marker at $33.2 per barrel in Q3, nearly four times the $8.4 level a year earlier, with refining and chemicals cash flow expected to rise about $2 billion quarter-on-quarter. Hydrocarbon production is guided at 2.45 to 2.50 million boe/d and integrated LNG results are set to rise sharply on a 20% jump in average LNG prices. The gains reflect sustained supply disruptions and elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict. Read →
Equinor, partners find 19 to 50 MMboe near Oseberg field
Reuters · Wed, Oct 14, 2026
Equinor and partners Petoro and TotalEnergies announced an oil and gas discovery in exploration well 30/8 to 7 S (Grimsnes) near the Oseberg field in the Norwegian North Sea, with preliminary recoverable volumes estimated at 19 to 50 million boe. The companies plan a fast-track, low-cost tie-back to existing subsea infrastructure and the Oseberg Sør platform, targeting an investment decision as early as next summer and production within three years. The find supports efforts to extend field life using paid-for facilities. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US weighs easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers to cut record freight rates, pressuring oil prices lower.
US weighs easing shadow fleet sanctions to lower freight rates
Reuters · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
The Trump administration is considering partially easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels that have carried oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela. The move would allow sanctioned tankers to transport only legal, non-sanctioned crude or products after Treasury approval, aiming to increase Gulf exports and ease record-high freight rates. Oil prices fell around 2% on the news as markets priced in potential relief for shipping costs. Read →
Oil slides as US considers shadow fleet sanctions relief
Ahmad Ghaddar · Reuters · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Brent crude fell over 2% to around $103.78 a barrel and WTI dropped about 1.4% after a US official confirmed discussions on easing sanctions for shadow fleet tankers. The talks follow last week's temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel and seek to boost legal oil movements from the Gulf amid Middle East shipping disruptions. Analysts noted EU and UK insurance rules would still constrain broader impact. Read →
Oil retreats on shadow fleet sanctions talk and Hormuz risks
Reuters · Thu, Oct 15, 2026
Brent futures fell 1.6% to $104.42 a barrel as markets balanced US consideration of shadow fleet sanctions relief against ongoing attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Recent tanker sinkings and Iranian threats have driven freight rates to records, prompting the policy discussion to increase legal crude and product flows from the Gulf. Russia’s September crude output rose modestly but remains well below year-ago levels. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
API shows huge crude draw, gasoline builds
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 14
Traders on X are buzzing over the largest recent API crude stock draw at 11.12 million barrels with distillates also drawing while gasoline builds. Cushing stocks rose modestly. The data signals tighter physical supply ahead of EIA figures and could support prices amid ongoing Middle East supply concerns. Read →
Force majeure hits natgas pipeline capacity
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 14
Natural gas traders note a force majeure on the MXP Line-100 that zeros out 1.9 Bcf/d of firm transport from Appalachia effective Oct 15. The outage tightens regional supply and supports prices as winter approaches. Read →
ADNOC sells 13mn bl Upper Zakum Dec loading
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 14
Oil traders track ADNOC's sale of 13 million barrels Upper Zakum for December loading with strong premiums paid by Chinese and Indian buyers. The deals highlight robust Asian demand for Middle East crude despite global supply worries. Read →
QatarEnergy sells Al-Shaheen and other crudes
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 14
Energy traders monitor QatarEnergy's tender for Al-Shaheen, Qatar Marine and Qatar Land crudes loading in November with bids referenced to Dubai. The activity reflects ongoing physical market liquidity in the Gulf. Read →
Gold slips as CPI and yields weigh
X / multiple traders · Wed, Oct 14
Traders note gold pulling back toward $4,100 to 4,200 levels amid hotter CPI data and rising yields. Some see value in dips while others flag further pressure if rate-hike bets strengthen. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Kpler's Matt Smith: no quick oil resolution
Matt Smith (Kpler) on BNN Bloomberg · Wed, Oct 14
No real resolution expected in oil market tensions for the next 8 to 9 months. Watch/Listen →
Rozencwajg: commodity bull just starting
Adam Rozencwajg (Goehring & Rozencwajg) on Bloomberg · Sun, Oct 12
Commodity bull market remains in early stages with opportunities in oil and uranium. Watch/Listen →
Suderman: WASDE aftermath in grains
Arlan Suderman (StoneX) on American Ag Network · Mon, Oct 12
Bigger US corn crop lifted 2026/27 ending stocks by over 250 million bushels. Watch/Listen →
Suderman: mixed ag trade post-WASDE
Arlan Suderman (StoneX) on American Ag Network · Tue, Oct 13
Mixed midday trade across grains and livestock following WASDE revisions. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
12%
-6pp w/w
US-Iran ceasefire holds through October 31
80%
+11pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping; a closure reroutes tankers and LNG around the Cape. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by December 31
15%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed hikes 25 bps at the October meeting
26%
+13pp w/w
US recession by end of 2026
7%
+1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
8%
-6pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Russia / Ukraine Energy
A ceasefire would shift Russian crude and product flows and European gas pricing. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31
19%
+5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Informational only, not financial or legal advice. Do your own research. No representation is made as to accuracy or completeness.
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