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Wednesday, September 23, 2026
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Wed, Sep 23, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude is quiet today following yesterday’s heavy news day with Saudis announcing the east west pipeline re-opening, and US Iran talks in New York. China’s Xi at the White House tomorrow (Thurs).
Nat Gas up $0.061 (+2.1%) on forecasts for hotter US autumn weather lifting power-sector demand.
Cocoa down $103 (-1.9%) on ample near-term West African supplies and high exchange inventories.
Platinum down $28 (-1.6%) on firm US Treasury yields and dollar strength.
Wheat down $10 (-1.4%) on hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine talks easing Black Sea shipping risks.
Nickel up $214 (+1.3%) on Indonesia supply concerns from El Niño-driven water shortages at Morowali smelters.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long copper short aluminum (Dec27) on mine supply constraints for copper versus Chinese overseas aluminum capacity growth.
Nat Gas up $0.061 (+2.1%) on forecasts for hotter US autumn weather lifting power-sector demand.
Cocoa down $103 (-1.9%) on ample near-term West African supplies and high exchange inventories.
Platinum down $28 (-1.6%) on firm US Treasury yields and dollar strength.
Wheat down $10 (-1.4%) on hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine talks easing Black Sea shipping risks.
Nickel up $214 (+1.3%) on Indonesia supply concerns from El Niño-driven water shortages at Morowali smelters.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long copper short aluminum (Dec27) on mine supply constraints for copper versus Chinese overseas aluminum capacity growth.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil falls below $98 on Saudi pipeline restart hopes
Financial Times · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Oil prices sank to a two-week low Tuesday as Saudi Arabia signaled it was preparing to restart its key East-West pipeline and resume crude exports from its Red Sea coast. Brent crude dropped more than 2% to below $98 a barrel, taking its decline for the week to more than 5%, while WTI fell 2.7% to 93.16 a barrel. The pipeline, shut after drone strikes nearly two weeks ago, has a capacity of about 7 million barrels per day and has helped Saudi exports bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. Read →
Copper advances toward record on China supply tightness
Jessica Zhou and Jack Ryan · Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Copper in London advanced for a sixth day and closed within 1% of a record high as falling inventories and pre-holiday buying signaled tightening supplies in China’s physical market. New York futures clinched a fresh all-time high. While some imported copper has arrived in China, much of it has gone directly to fabricators rather than warehouses, keeping spot supplies constrained, according to Shanghai Metals Market. Read →
Tanker rates hit record $1.2mn/day on Hormuz woes
Financial Times · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Shortage of the biggest supertankers has more than doubled rates on key Middle East-China routes since late August amid the Iran war. Oil tanker costs have hit a record $1.2 million a day as disruptions persist through the Strait of Hormuz. The surge reflects acute vessel scarcity on critical energy shipping lanes. Read →
Ineos idles UK plants amid surging gas prices
Financial Times · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Jim Ratcliffe-owned Ineos has suspended operations at three chemical plants in Hull employing 300 people. The move comes as oil and gas prices surge due to the Iran war. The closures highlight the direct impact of energy market volatility on European industry. Read →
Diesel surge costs European drivers €203mn daily
Financial Times · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Motorists are spending 40% more each time they refill their tank compared with the start of the year amid the diesel price surge. The spike, driven by Middle East and Ukraine conflicts, is costing European drivers €203 million per day. The fuel remains critical for transport, farming and industry across the continent. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue · tap a section to jump to it
Oil 4US Natural Gas 2Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems 2Global Nat Gas & LNG 3Power 2Coal 3Agriculture 4Base Metals 2Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 3Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 4Regulation & Government 2Social buzz 5Watch & Listen 3Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Saudi pipeline restart and US-Iran talks ease supply fears, driving Brent toward longest losing streak in a year.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 89.81 | -0.8% -0.71 |
+56.4% | +38.2% | +22.5% |
| Brent | 99.28 | +0.0% +0.03 |
+57.0% | +37.8% | +23.6% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 3.535 | +1.4% +0.048 |
+91.6% | +61.8% | +50.5% |
| Heating Oil | 4.942 | +0.0% +0.000 |
+123.5% | +99.4% | +110.8% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
58.68 | +4.9% +2.72 |
+192.1% +38.59 |
+119.3% +31.92 |
+131.1% +33.29 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
117.77 | +0.6% +0.72 |
+232.3% +82.32 |
+201.1% +78.66 |
+367.5% +92.58 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
78.37 | +2.7% +2.06 |
+210.9% +53.17 |
+153.8% +47.50 |
+209.5% +53.05 |
Oil falls as Saudi pipeline restarts, Iraq exports rise
Reuters · Tue, Sep 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET
Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline on Tuesday after a drone-induced shutdown on Sept 11, with flows initially low but aimed at restoring up to 4 million bpd rerouted to Yanbu. Iraq boosted exports above 3 million bpd and plans further increases via Turkey. US crude stocks rose 1.8 million barrels versus expectations of a draw, adding downward pressure on Brent and WTI, which fell for a sixth straight session. Read →
Oil heads for longest losing streak on pipeline hopes
Tyler Kendall · Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 22, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Brent fell toward $98 a barrel, extending losses for a sixth day and more than 9% overall, the longest such streak since August 2025. Saudi Arabia advanced restart of its key East-West pipeline while US officials reported a productive meeting with Iranian representatives at the UN, raising hopes for talks to end the seven-month conflict. Read →
Saudi restarts East-West pipeline after drone attacks
Reuters · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Saudi Arabia restarted operations on its East-West Pipeline Tuesday, with exports from Yanbu potentially resuming the same day, per three sources. The line had been shut since Sept 11 to 13 drone attacks blamed on Iraqi militia; it had rerouted 4 million bpd around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Aramco seeks to ramp pumping back toward 4 million bpd capacity, though full restoration may take weeks. Read →
Oil holds near lows as Gulf supply improves
Financial News / Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Brent and WTI stayed near multi-week lows Wednesday amid Saudi pipeline restart and rising US crude inventories of 1.8 million barrels. Hopes for US-Iran diplomatic progress at the UN further reduced risk premium in the market. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures near $2.84-$2.91 as record 113 bcfd output and milder weather forecasts offset firm LNG flows near 18 bcfd.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 3.026 | +2.1% +0.061 |
-13.5% | +11.6% | -35.9% |
US natgas futures near one-week low on record output, milder weather outlook
Reuters · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
US natural gas futures for October delivery settled at $2.842/MMBtu on Tuesday, up just 0.2% after closing Monday at a one-week low. Lower 48 output averaged 113.0 bcfd so far in September, above August’s record 112.2 bcfd, while LSEG forecasts demand slipping to 104.1 bcfd next week on milder weather through early October. LNG feedgas flows averaged 18.0 bcfd, up from 17.2 bcfd in August but below April’s high, keeping storage surplus near 3% above the five-year average ahead of Thursday’s EIA report. Read →
Natgas futures steady at $2.91 as LNG flows rise to 18.1 bcfd
BOE Report · Thu, Sep 18, 2026
October futures closed at $2.912/MMBtu, up 0.4% and 3% for the week, as LNG feedgas averaged 18.1 bcfd so far in September versus 17.2 bcfd in August. Output rose to 113.2 bcfd, but hotter weather kept storage surplus shrinking toward 3% above normal for the week ended Sept. 18 ahead of the EIA report. LSEG sees Lower 48 demand including exports at 109.8 bcfd this week before easing. Read →
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Wet Gas, NGLs/LPGs & Petchems
What's moving · Mont Belvieu propane rose 2.3% to 84.6¢/gal on stronger export pull and counterseasonal stock draws.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethane C2 $/gal |
0.250 | +0.7% +0.002 |
+5.5% | -0.4% | -34.7% |
| Propane C3 $/gal |
0.846 | +2.3% +0.019 |
+37.2% | +19.1% | -33.8% |
| N-Butane NC4 $/gal |
1.264 | +1.7% +0.021 |
+69.6% | +41.2% | -13.8% |
| Isobutane IC4 $/gal |
1.454 | +2.4% +0.033 |
+87.0% | +57.4% | +0.9% |
| Pentane C5 $/gal |
2.049 | +2.4% +0.047 |
+74.8% | +56.7% | +21.4% |
| Spread | Now | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C2 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 5 | unch | +4 | -2 | -2 |
| C3 Frac Sprd ¢/gal | 57 | +1 | +27 | +11 | -28 |
| C2 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -646 | +3 | -342 | -278 | -267 |
| C3 vs NWE Naph $/mt | -399 | +11 | -232 | -206 | -388 |
| C5 as % WTI | 96 | +3 | +10 | +11 | -1 |
Mont Belvieu front-month settlement. Frac spread is the liquid over Henry Hub fuel value; naphtha spreads are before freight.
China PDH plants face shutdown risk from US LPG tariffs
World Energy News · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Beijing raised retaliatory tariffs on US propane to 84%, threatening over 30 Chinese PDH plants that rely on US LPG for propylene production. Industry sources expect utilization to drop below 50% and demand to fall by at least 500,000 metric tons monthly, pressuring US Gulf Coast export economics and Mont Belvieu prices. Read →
Dorian LPG sells VLGC amid record freight rates
Harry Papachristou · TradeWinds · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Dorian LPG completed its fifth VLGC sale, generating over $400m, as spot VLGC earnings remain elevated due to Panama Canal transit limits and strong LPG arbitrage. Persistent dry conditions and reduced canal capacity are expected to keep freight rates high into 2027, supporting delivered Asian prices for US cargoes. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF slips to €71 to 73/MWh on mild weather, rising storage injections and easing Hormuz risk premium; JKM steady near $26/MMBtu.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF €/MWh |
73.88 | +0.7% +0.53 |
+162.3% | +131.6% | +6.0% |
| Dutch TTF $/MMBtu |
24.72 | +0.7% +0.18 |
+162.3% | +131.6% | +6.0% |
| JKM $/MMBtu |
26.05 | +0.2% +0.06 |
+171.2% | +132.2% | -2.8% |
EU gas storage · gas day Mon, Sep 21
EU gas storage is 70.1% full, 794 TWh in store, 15.6 points below the five-year average for this date and 11.7 points below a year ago. Germany, the bloc's largest store, is 57.0%.
EU full 70.1% +0.20 pts d/d | Year ago 81.8% | 5-yr avg 85.7% same date |
Germany 57.0% |
Source: GIE AGSI+ · Full AGSI+ data →
TTF holds steady near €42/MWh on Iran deal easing
World Energy News · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Dutch TTF front-month fell to EUR41.95/MWh, lowest since May, after a preliminary US-Iran agreement to end conflict and reopen Strait of Hormuz. Prices dropped 10 to 15% over three days but retain some risk premium ahead of Friday's Geneva signing. Reduced Hormuz transit risk eases global LNG supply concerns for Europe and Asia. Read →
JKM holds at $26.05/MMBtu with neutral bias
OilPriceAPI · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
JKM LNG benchmark assessed at $26.05 per MMBtu, flat day-over-day. Asian spot demand remains subdued while Europe competes for cargoes amid storage rebuild. JKM-TTF arb spread sits near $5.14/MMBtu, signaling limited immediate diversion pressure between basins. Read →
TTF October futures rise 1.9% to $885/000m3
Ground News / RIA · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
October TTF futures opened at $874 and climbed to $885.4 per thousand cubic metres, up 1.9%. Technical support and slightly tighter near-term balances lifted prices despite broader easing. Move reflects ongoing sensitivity to storage pace and weather-driven demand in northwest Europe. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM files FERC plan for Sept 30-Oct 21 backstop auction to fill 6.8 GW capacity shortfall driven by data center load.
Abbott halts new Texas data center permits until ERCOT audit completes
Industrial Info / Utility Dive · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality to stop issuing new air and water permits for data centers until ERCOT completes its audit of large-load proposals by Dec. 10. The move follows Abbott’s earlier order pausing new interconnections amid a 474 GW queue (90% data centers) exceeding five times ERCOT’s record peak demand; ERCOT delayed its Batch Zero study in response. Read →
Solar ramps in ERCOT/MISO amid surging data center demand
pv magazine USA · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
EIA forecasts sharp solar generation growth in ERCOT (up 18 TWh in 2026, another 20 TWh in 2027) and MISO (13 TWh then 11 TWh) as data centers and manufacturing push load higher. ERCOT utility-scale solar is set to surpass coal annually for the first time in 2026 at 78 TWh; MISO sees data centers as its largest new load source, potentially reaching 20 GW by 2030. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China coking coal supply squeeze lingers into 2027, lifting import demand and supporting prices.
China coking coal squeeze to persist into 2027
Bloomberg · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
The May Shanxi mine accident keeps domestic coking coal output constrained through safety rules into 2027. Imports from Mongolia, Australia and Russia rise but fall short of closing the gap. Bloomberg Intelligence says this sustains strong seaborne demand and price support for metallurgical coal. Read →
74 Indian coal plants hit critically low stocks
Reuters · Mon, Sep 21, 2026
Central Electricity Authority data show 74 of 190 thermal plants with stocks below 25% of requirements or under three days' cover as of Sep 19, up from 60 the prior week. Stocks fell to 22.9 million tonnes amid El Niño-driven power demand surge and monsoon logistics issues. Utilities ramp rail shipments while imports hit a 15-month high in August. Read →
Newcastle thermal coal eases from $149/t peak
Andre Joaquim · Trading Economics · Mon, Sep 22, 2026
Australian thermal coal futures slipped to $145/t from a three-month high of $149/t reached Sep 7. Higher Chinese output after central government orders offset earlier demand gains tied to Middle East gas-to-coal switching. IEA revised 2026 global demand up 1.2% to a record 8.94 billion tonnes. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · US corn harvest hits 13% complete, pressuring futures lower ahead of Trump-Xi summit on China buys.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 530 | -1.3% -7 |
+20.3% | +24.9% | +0.1% |
| Wheat | 708 | -1.4% -10 |
+39.5% | +36.2% | -1.4% |
| Soybeans | 1,318 | -0.6% -8 |
+27.9% | +30.6% | +2.6% |
| Sugar | 18.33 | -1.2% -0.23 |
+22.1% | +17.2% | -6.0% |
| Coffee | 271.2 | -0.4% -1.2 |
-22.3% | -26.3% | +42.3% |
| Cocoa | 5,299 | -1.9% -103 |
-12.6% | -24.8% | +102.9% |
| Cotton | 82.96 | +0.1% +0.09 |
+28.9% | +29.4% | -11.2% |
Corn futures ease as US harvest accelerates and China summit looms.
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 22, 4:05 PM ET
December corn futures fell as much as 1.4% Tuesday to around $5.3675 per bushel. Traders paused after Monday's rally on hopes China will fulfill part of a $17 billion agriculture purchase pledge beyond soybeans during this week's Trump-Xi summit in Washington. Drier weather is expected to speed US harvest, which USDA data showed at 13% complete as of Sept. 20, ahead of the five-year average. Read →
Soybean futures hold steady awaiting US-China summit results.
Tom Polansek · Reuters · Tue, Sep 22, 6:35 PM ET
November soybeans closed nearly unchanged at $13.255 per bushel after fading early gains. USDA reported soybean harvest at 12% complete, ahead of the five-year average, as Midwest rains slowed fieldwork. Traders await Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting for clarity on potential tariff cuts or additional Chinese purchases of US soybeans. Read →
Grains fall as US corn harvest reaches 13% and wheat slumps.
Bruce Blythe · Farm Progress · Tue, Sep 22
December corn settled down 6.25 cents at $5.3675 per bushel and December SRW wheat fell 9.5 cents to $7.1725. USDA's latest Crop Progress showed corn harvest at 13% and soybeans at 12%, both ahead of average. Wheat faced additional pressure from reports of Russia repurposing Baltic ports for grain exports amid easing Black Sea tensions. Read →
Cocoa and sugar futures drop on ample supplies outlook.
Business Recorder / Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 1:05 AM ET
London cocoa fell 2.5% to £3,863 per ton and New York cocoa dropped 2.4% to $5,222 per ton, hitting multi-week lows on expectations of a more balanced 2026/27 market after large prior surpluses. Raw sugar lost 1.8% to 17.16 cents per lb amid profit-taking from recent highs, though El Nino risks support the longer-term outlook. Favorable weather in Brazil and Vietnam weighed on Arabica coffee. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Dollar strength weighs on LME copper, down 0.66% to $14,651/t as China buying pauses overnight.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/mt |
15,066 | -0.0% -4 |
+21.4% | +43.8% | +61.5% |
| Copper SHFE $/mt |
14,693 | +0.0% +4 |
+15.7% | +48.4% | +54.0% |
| Aluminium SHFE $/mt |
3,194 | -0.1% -4 |
+7.3% | +24.5% | +10.1% |
| Zinc SHFE $/mt |
3,511 | -0.2% -8 |
+16.9% | +27.7% | +15.1% |
| Nickel SHFE $/mt |
16,620 | +1.3% +214 |
-1.9% | +9.3% | -19.1% |
| Lead SHFE $/mt |
2,163 | -0.3% -7 |
-1.8% | +3.8% | +6.1% |
| Tin SHFE $/mt |
54,474 | +0.3% +188 |
+29.7% | +60.6% | +59.4% |
Dollar rise pulls LME copper, other metals lower
Reuters · Wed, Sep 23, 2026, 6:29 AM ET
Benchmark three-month LME copper fell 0.66% to $14,651/t by early Wednesday as the stronger US dollar made dollar-denominated metals more expensive for non-US buyers. SHFE copper slipped 0.23% to 110,960 yuan/t. The Yangshan import premium eased to $117/t but stayed well above early-month levels, reflecting sustained though moderating Chinese physical demand ahead of holidays. Read →
Copper nears record as China, LME stocks drain
Mining.com · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Comex December copper hit a fresh session high near $6.87/lb while LME three-month copper rose 0.7% to $14,766/t. SHFE-monitored stocks have dropped 70% since early June; Shanghai social inventories hit a three-year low. LME cancelled warrants rose another 6,700 t to 122,150 t, leaving just 133,725 t available in the system. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Chinese steelmakers' voluntary output cuts and pre-holiday iron ore restocking drive the complex amid weak demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
94.0 | +0.5% +0.4 |
-6.7% | -1.8% | -11.8% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
403 | -0.3% -1 |
+2.4% | +4.1% | -44.0% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
435 | -0.2% -1 |
+5.6% | +6.0% | -42.5% |
Chinese voluntary steel output cuts lift Korean mill hopes
Lee Gyu-lee · The Korea Times · Sun, Sep 21, 2026
The China Iron and Steel Association urged about 45 mills including Baowu, Ansteel, HBIS and Shougang to cut production and inventories to match orders and profitability. Chinese crude steel output fell 3% year-on-year in H1 2026 while consumption dropped 3.6%, pushing mill inventories to a three-year high of 16.02 million tons. Korean producers see potential relief from oversupply and price pressure if cuts prove deep and sustained. Read →
Vale shares rise slightly as iron ore benchmarks ease
The Rio Times · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
On Tuesday September 22, the 62% Fe benchmark CFR China settled at $97.32 per tonne, down 0.19%, while DCE most-traded iron ore futures fell 0.98% to 708 yuan per tonne. Vale New York shares edged up 0.28% to $14.19 and Rio Tinto rose 0.46% to $97.49 amid Chinese mills' cautious pre-holiday imported ore purchases. August crude steel output fell 3.7% year-on-year to 74.61 million tonnes. Read →
DCE iron ore futures drop 1.05% on Tuesday
Bastille Post · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
The most active Dalian iron ore contract for January 2027 delivery fell 1.05% to close at 708.00 yuan per tonne. SGX most-traded contract stood at $97.21 per dmt as of September 21. Spot prices eased 3 to 5 yuan per wet tonne with mills buying only as needed amid maintenance losses and rising port stocks. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold steadies near $4,340/oz as US-Iran talks ease oil-driven inflation fears and temper Fed hike bets.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,356 | -0.5% -21 |
+0.3% | +15.6% | +148.9% |
| Silver | 66.01 | -0.8% -0.52 |
-5.9% | +50.8% | +191.5% |
| Platinum | 1,797 | -1.6% -28 |
-11.7% | +21.1% | +80.2% |
| Palladium | 1,295 | -0.8% -11 |
-20.5% | +6.0% | -34.3% |
Gold steadies near $4,340 as US-Iran talks ease oil inflation fears
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 22, 11:02 PM ET
Spot gold traded around $4,340 an ounce, erasing prior-session gains. Traders monitored US-Iran diplomacy and Fed comments on how energy costs will shape the rate path after the central bank's first hike in three years. Lower oil prices reduced immediate inflation pressures that had supported bets on further tightening. Read →
Gold pares losses as lower oil prices damp rate-hike odds
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 22, 10:41 AM ET
Bullion recovered from a 1.2% drop as Brent crude pared losses to near $98 a barrel after an 8% slide over four sessions. Easing Middle East export concerns and renewed US-Iran diplomacy cut the risk of sustained energy-driven inflation. The moves lowered the odds of additional Fed rate hikes that weigh on non-yielding metals. Read →
Spot gold slips 0.2% to $4,346; silver and PGMs fall
The Times of India · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,345.99 per ounce while US gold futures rose 0.2% to $4,382.70. Silver dropped 0.4% to $66.78, platinum 0.8% to $1,818.21 and palladium 0.4% to $1,302.61. Markets weighed higher-for-longer rates from major central banks alongside geopolitical developments. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Trump-Xi summit and Greenland security pact spotlight rare earth supply leverage ahead of November export control deadline.
Trump-Xi summit puts rare earths and critical minerals on agenda
Colum Murphy · Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 22, 6:11 PM ET
Xi Jinping arrives in Washington on September 23 for a summit with President Trump focused on trade, AI, and critical minerals. Rare earth export controls and supply reliability remain key unresolved issues from prior agreements, with Beijing's dominance in refining and magnets giving it leverage. The meeting tests whether the US can secure steadier access or extend the current truce before November controls potentially tighten further. Read →
Rare earths curb Trump rhetoric ahead of Xi meeting
Reuters · Mon, Sep 21, 10:02 AM ET
Trump has avoided aggressive tariff or tech-export threats before the Xi summit due to China's control of up to 70% of rare-earth mining, 85% of refining, and 90% of magnet production. US officials note Beijing has met only about two-thirds of rare-earth supply commitments under the prior truce. The mineral chokepoint directly influences negotiation dynamics on trade and tech. Read →
Greenland pact lifts rare earth stocks ahead of summit
Investor's Business Daily · Mon, Sep 21, 11:33 AM ET
A US-Denmark security agreement granting expanded US access in Greenland boosted shares of Critical Metals and other rare-earth developers by up to 43%. The pact signals US friend-shoring efforts for alternative supplies outside China. Stocks including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth also rose as investors position for summit outcomes on mineral access. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · VLCC rates spike on Hormuz attacks and shuttle ops as BDI climbs to 3,432.
Hormuz commodity vessel crossings drop to two
Mohi Narayan · Reuters · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to two on Monday from 10 the prior day, per Kpler data. A crude tanker and LPG carrier were attacked in separate incidents while crossing, with minor crew injuries reported. Traffic remains far below the pre-war average of 125 large vessels daily, tightening effective tanker supply. Read →
VLCC rates near record highs despite peak
Matt Wright · Kpler · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
Middle East Gulf VLCC freight hit record levels last week near $1.2 million per day or $32/bbl equivalent. Rates appear to have peaked as Asian refining margins ease, but Hormuz congestion, STS bottlenecks in the Gulf of Oman, and pipeline disruptions will keep them elevated. The shift from Red Sea routes to East Coast Saudi loadings adds logistical inefficiency that supports the floor. Read →
Tanker rates hit $1.2M/day on Hormuz crisis
Financial Times · Wed, Sep 23, 2026
Shortage of VLCCs has more than doubled Middle East-China rates since late August amid Iran war disruptions. Shuttle operations and longer Cape voyages tie up vessels, pushing spot earnings to historic highs. The squeeze raises delivered crude costs for Asian refiners and sustains pressure across tanker segments. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs hold near 6-week highs near €87 amid options expiry and energy swings.
EUAs swing €2 range, end marginally higher ahead of expiry.
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Sep 22, 2026
EU carbon allowances moved in a €2 range around Monday's settlement on Tuesday, ending marginally higher. Traders focused on Wednesday's September options expiry while energy markets swung on US-Iran diplomatic news. Prices remain supported near recent highs with compliance demand in focus. Read →
ADM enters VCM with 800k+ t/yr CDR capacity from Nebraska plant.
Global Agriculture / ESG Dive · Mon, Sep 22, 2026
ADM announced plans to sell engineered carbon removal credits from its Columbus, Nebraska corn complex with over 800,000 tons annual capacity. Credits undergo Puro.earth certification under Geologically Stored Carbon methodology, with first issuance expected by year-end and a 15-year crediting period. The move links agricultural processing to growing CDR demand in the voluntary market. Read →
RGGI prices 153% higher on Virginia's return to program.
The Center Square / Daily Press · Mon, Sep 22, 2026
The latest RGGI auction cleared at $37.65 per allowance, 153% above the $14.88 price when Virginia last participated in late 2023. Virginia's return added supply but prices reflect tighter caps and demand growth; the Sept. 9 auction raised over $1 billion total across states. Utilities face higher costs that can pass to customers. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · CFTC Chairman Selig urges markets to prepare for mass tokenization and 24/7 on-chain finance as Hyperliquid RWA perps OI hits record $18B.
CFTC chair Selig calls for mass tokenization prep
The Block · Tue, Sep 22, 5:01 PM ET
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig told a New York Fed conference on September 22 that regulators must ready U.S. markets for mass tokenization, on-chain finance and 24/7 trading. He highlighted the agency's prior guidance on 24-hour energy derivatives and stablecoin collateral expansion. The remarks come days after the SEC's tokenized-stock exemption and signal accelerating regulatory focus on commodity and RWA derivatives. Read →
Hyperliquid OI hits $18B record on RWA growth
crypto.news · Wed, Sep 23, 7:45 AM ET
Hyperliquid's total open interest reached a record $18 billion on September 23, up from $16.36 billion four days earlier and above $13 billion at end-August. HIP-3 markets including gold, crude oil and equity indices now account for a rising share of activity alongside crypto perps. Gold perps showed roughly $302 million in open interest while S&P 500 and other tokenized-asset contracts added to the surge. Read →
Tokenized gold and oil volume spiked pre-Fed
FinanceFeeds · Wed, Sep 23
MEXC data showed tokenized gold turnover jumping 358% on September 10 and another 178% on September 11 ahead of the Fed decision. Oil-linked products posted similar one-day spikes of nearly 199% in spot and futures. The moves tracked underlying physical price action as crypto traders sought commodity exposure amid rate-hike expectations. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil prices below $100 and falling capex drive EQT higher 2026 natgas output while Tourmaline monetizes Topaz stake for buybacks.
EQT raises 2026 natgas output guidance on lower capex.
Reuters · Tue, Sep 22, 7:58 PM ET
EQT CEO Toby Rice said the company will produce more US natural gas in 2026 while cutting maintenance capital spending below 2025 levels. Guidance now averages 6.5 to 6.7 bcfed with capex reduced by $25 million to $2.04 to 2.19 billion. The flexible shut-in program allows EQT to capture higher prices amid growing LNG and power demand. Read →
Tourmaline sells $287.5M Topaz stake for buybacks and 5% dividend hike.
Tourmaline Oil Corp. · Tue, Sep 22, 4:31 PM ET
Tourmaline will sell 10 million Topaz shares at C$28.75 in a bought deal for C$287.5 million gross proceeds. Funds will support share repurchases under its NCIB and a 5% increase in the quarterly base dividend to C$0.525 per share from Q4 2026. Post-deal ownership in Topaz falls to about 6.4%. Read →
Osisko prices $600M notes to refinance debt and fund Cariboo gold project.
GlobeNewswire · Tue, Sep 22, 8:34 PM ET
Osisko Gold upsized its senior secured notes offering to US$600 million at 9.25% due 2031. Proceeds will repay the Appian Credit Facility, fund an interest reserve, and advance construction at the Cariboo Gold Project in British Columbia. Closing is expected September 30. Read →
Zeus Resources nears Diaguili copper-gold project acquisition.
Maddison Elliott · Mining.com.au · Wed, Sep 23, 2:58 AM ET
Zeus Resources completed due diligence on the Diaguili copper-gold project in Mauritania after the Ministry validated the environmental notice. The company will proceed to first completion under the US$2 million staged share sale agreement for up to 100% interest. Visible copper mineralization was confirmed during site visits. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump signs Russia sanctions bill granting up to 100% tariffs on top buyers of Russian oil and gas.
Trump signs Russia sanctions bill targeting oil and gas buyers.
Bernd Debusmann Jr · BBC News · Fri, Sep 18, 2026
President Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act into law. The measure directs tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest purchasers of Russian oil and natural gas and expands sanctions on Russian officials, banks, and the shadow tanker fleet. It also extends Iran energy sanctions for five years. Read →
EPA repeals Biden-era power plant GHG rules and proposes full rollback.
US EPA · Mon, Sep 14, 2026
The EPA finalized repeal of most 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants, projecting $310 billion in savings, and proposed rescinding all remaining GHG emission standards for the sector. The actions remove requirements for carbon capture on coal and new gas plants and restore flexibility for coal and natural gas generation. Administrator Lee Zeldin said the moves will increase coal production more than tenfold and deliver affordable baseload power. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Europe diesel crunch; US protects prices, Europe maxes refineries
X / multiple traders · Tue, Sep 22
Oil traders on X highlight Europe's diesel shortage amid Russian refinery attacks and Middle East issues, with the US refusing to export despite global markets. Discussions note Europe ramping up limited refining capacity while US focuses on short-term price control, risking later boomerang effects. This underscores tight refined products amid geopolitical strains. Read →
Libya oil output hit by 130k bpd Zawiya closure
X / multiple traders · Tue, Sep 22
Traders flag Libya's NOC confirming 130,000 barrels daily lost due to Zawiya complex shutdown from militia confrontation. The update adds to ongoing supply disruption concerns in North Africa. #OOTT users see it as fresh pressure on global crude balances. Read →
Oil slips under $100 on Iran talks hope, physical tight
r/oil · Mon, Sep 21
Retail traders in r/oil debate the disconnect between paper prices falling on diplomatic headlines and persistent physical market tightness from Middle East issues. Skepticism runs high about deal durability, with comments noting algos and vibes driving moves over fundamentals. Positioning shifts and SPR draws remain hot topics. Read →
Copper surges to ATHs amid China stock drawdowns
X / multiple traders · Tue, Sep 22
Metals traders celebrate copper breaking to fresh highs, driven by tightening Chinese inventories and broader supply constraints. Posts highlight momentum in names like $LNQ.AX, $BHP, and $COPX as the metal steps into the spotlight. Momentum accounts eye further upside on clean breaks. Read →
Diesel at $3, heating oil ATHs spark inflation fears
X / multiple traders · Tue, Sep 22
Energy accounts track diesel climbing toward or hitting $3 amid global tightness and potential US export curbs, with heating oil printing new highs since March. Traders warn of direct pass-through to inflation and pain for logistics/delivery sectors. #OOTT discussions emphasize the refined products crunch. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Diesel ban: short-term price help, long-term damage
A diesel export ban would be short-term positive for prices but have worse long-term impact. Watch/Listen →
Oil market on 'credit card' amid Hormuz disruption
Flows through Strait of Hormuz still only a third of pre-war levels. Watch/Listen →
Elevated oil market through 2027 on refining tightness
Tightness in US refining capacity as diesel hits new record highs. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
24%
+7pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
10%
+5pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
WHO declares new pandemic in 2026
6%
-1pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by Wooden Table Press LLC. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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