Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 46 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Wed, Sep 9, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Brent crude futures $100.56 up $2.64 (+2.7%) and WTI $95.06 up $2.03 (+2.2%). Cash (dated) Brent is now trading almost $108 so physical markets are much tighter than futures exchange screens are showing. Recap of Iran situation so far this week: Iran twice tried to hit a US Navy ship with ballistic missiles on Monday and Tuesday. On Tuesday (yesterday), September 8, US struck five Iranian crude tankers in response. US announced those tanker strikes Tuesday at 4:02pm EDT. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday (this morning), Iran fired missiles at a US base in Jordan.
Dutch TTF nat gas up $3.16 (+4.2%) on Middle East supply shock tightening European LNG imports amid low winter storage.
JKM up $0.36 (+1.5%) on Asian demand competing for scarce cargoes as Hormuz disruptions limit Middle East LNG.
Nat Gas down $0.035 (-1.2%) on cooling US weather forecasts cutting near-term power demand.
Sugar up $0.22 (+1.2%) on higher oil prices pushing Brazilian mills toward ethanol over sugar amid tightening global supply forecasts.
Coffee down $3.4 (-1.2%) on favorable Brazilian rainfall supporting bumper 2026/27 crop prospects.
Kicker: Goldman recommends long deferred March 2027-December 2027 European diesel timespreads to capture outsized gains from persistent refinery outages.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil surges on fresh Houthi strikes amid Middle East tensions
Crude oil prices jumped more than 3% in late trading after reports of renewed Houthi attacks on shipping lanes and energy infrastructure in the Red Sea region. Traders cited heightened supply disruption risks from the ongoing conflict between Iran-backed groups and Western forces.
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LNG shipments to Europe delayed by Atlantic storm
Several liquefied natural gas cargoes bound for European terminals were rerouted or delayed after severe weather hit major transatlantic shipping lanes. The disruption adds to seasonal storage refill pressures ahead of winter.
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Gold holds near records on central bank buying
Spot gold remained within striking distance of all-time highs after fresh data showed continued heavy purchases by emerging-market central banks. Safe-haven demand also rose on persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
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U.S. natural gas futures climb on heat and exports
Henry Hub natural gas futures rose more than 4% after forecasters raised expectations for above-normal temperatures across the southern U.S. this week, boosting power-sector demand, while LNG export loadings stayed robust.
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LME copper inventories hit decade low
London Metal Exchange copper stocks fell to their lowest level since 2016 after another week of heavy withdrawals by traders. The tight visible supply is supporting prices despite signs of softening manufacturing demand in China.
Read →
Oil
What's moving · Brent tops $100/bbl on US strikes destroying five Iranian tankers amid escalating Gulf conflict.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
95.06 |
+2.2%
+2.03 |
+65.6% |
+49.3% |
+39.5% |
| Brent |
100.56 |
+2.7%
+2.64 |
+65.2% |
+49.0% |
+40.7% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.277 |
+0.7%
+0.024 |
+81.6% |
+54.2% |
+47.5% |
| Heating Oil |
4.720 |
+3.3%
+0.152 |
+122.5% |
+102.2% |
+123.3% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
42.56 |
-2.3%
-1.02 |
+131.7%
+24.19 |
+66.5%
+16.99 |
+69.1%
+17.39 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
103.16 |
+4.4%
+4.35 |
+225.9%
+71.51 |
+200.3%
+68.81 |
+399.8%
+82.52 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
62.76 |
+1.2%
+0.77 |
+175.3%
+39.96 |
+120.3%
+34.27 |
+165.2%
+39.10 |
Brent tops $100 on Mideast escalation
Reuters · Wed, Sep 9, 2026, 3:37 AM ET
Brent futures rose over 2% to top $100 a barrel for the first time since July 24 as US forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to missile threats on a US warship. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites and Iranian retaliation further tightened flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where volumes have dropped sharply since February. Banks including Goldman Sachs raised price forecasts assuming prolonged disruptions into 2027.
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Brent hits $100 after US sinks Iranian tankers
Brent reached $100.06 a barrel and WTI hit $94.70 as the US military destroyed five Iranian crude carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman. The strikes followed Iranian attempts to hit US warships and coincided with Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities that set oil installations ablaze. Physical buffers are eroding as Hormuz flows remain severely constrained.
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Brent nears $100 on tanker strikes, China demand
Brent topped $100 for the first time since July after US strikes on five Iranian tankers carrying crude near Kharg Island, the main export hub. Renewed US-Iran fighting and Houthi strikes on Saudi sites deepened fears of extended Hormuz disruptions. Stronger Chinese buying added support as refiners sought alternative supplies.
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Oil hits six-week high on Saudi attacks
Brent settled at $97.92 and WTI at $93.03 after Houthi strikes hit Saudi energy facilities in four southern cities, wounding dozens and igniting installations. The attacks mark a major expansion of the six-month conflict and threaten Red Sea routes as an alternative to Hormuz. Goldman Sachs and other banks raised 2026 to 2027 price outlooks.
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WTI tops $94 on US-Iran tanker strikes
WTI climbed above $94 to a three-month high after US Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude carriers following ballistic missile attempts on a US Navy ship. Iran responded with strikes toward Jordan and warnings to vessels near Hormuz ports. Houthi attacks also hit Saudi sites including the Jazan refinery.
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US Natural Gas
What's moving · Record 113.7 bcfd Lower 48 output and ample storage ease October Henry Hub futures 0.8% to $2.95/MMBtu.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.881 |
-1.2%
-0.035 |
-21.8% |
-4.9% |
-42.7% |
US natgas futures ease on record output, ample storage
LSEG data shows US Lower 48 gas output averaging 113.7 bcfd so far in September, up from August's record 112.2 bcfd. Front-month October NYMEX futures fell 2.5 cents to $2.95/MMBtu as storage stays above the five-year average. Mild spring weather and high output keep inventories elevated heading into the storage report due Thursday.
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US natgas futures retreat as weather set to cool
NYMEX natural gas settled down 2% at $2.916/MMBtu on Tuesday after probing above $3.00 early. Analysts cite fading cooling demand in the second half of September as the main driver. Strong LNG feedgas demand provides the main counterbalance to bearish weather forecasts.
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September natgas spot basis tracks seasonal trend
Fewer hubs priced above Henry Hub in early September amid thinning seasonal basis premiums. NGI projects a 34 Bcf storage injection for the week ended Sept. 4. Persistent Southeast heat and LNG feedgas near highs support near-term prices despite broader supply pressure.
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US LNG exports rise 23% in first half of 2026
EIA data shows US LNG exports averaged 17.4 bcfd in 1H26, up 23% from 2025 on new capacity at Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Golden Pass. Exports are forecast to average 17.3 bcfd in 2H26 before rising further in 2027. Capacity additions drive the fastest growth since large-scale US exports began.
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Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF surges to 3-year high on low EU storage at 67% full and Middle East LNG supply risks.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Dutch TTF
€/MWh |
79.00 |
+4.2%
+3.16 |
+180.5% |
+138.5% |
+39.6% |
Dutch TTF
$/MMBtu |
26.94 |
+4.2%
+1.08 |
+180.5% |
+138.5% |
+39.6% |
JKM
$/MMBtu |
24.39 |
+1.5%
+0.36 |
+153.9% |
+115.1% |
+30.9% |
Dutch TTF Gas Jumps 2% as Winter Storage Race Heats Up
Front-month TTF rose 2% to around €74.82/MWh ($86.90/MWh equivalent), the highest since the 2022 to 2023 crisis. Prices have rallied on four straight weekly gains as EU storage sits below 70% full versus 82% last year and an 80%+ five-year average. Middle East tensions have curtailed Qatar LNG flows through Hormuz, intensifying competition for non-chokepoint cargoes.
Read →
JKM at $24.03/MMBtu as TTF nears parity
JKM LNG held near $24.03/MMBtu with modest firming while TTF converted to roughly $24.90/MMBtu, narrowing the JKM-TTF spread to near parity at about -$0.87/MMBtu. The tight spread keeps the Pacific diversion window largely closed. Continued Hormuz escalation risk and below-average European storage support both benchmarks.
Read →
Europe enters winter with low gas stocks
EU gas storage stands around 66% full, the lowest for this date in 15 years and roughly 12 points below last year per Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Gulf LNG exports have fallen over 85% year-over-year due to Hormuz constraints, with QatarEnergy extending force majeure into November. Low inventories heighten reliance on spot LNG and pipeline imports, sustaining upward price pressure.
Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM readies 6 GW reliability backstop auction for data-center-driven shortfall as ERCOT audits 300+ large-load projects.
PJM files for 6 GW backstop auction to fix data-center shortfall.
PJM submitted a two-part FERC plan on July 31 and August 7 for a one-time Reliability Backstop Procurement auction from September 30 to October 21 targeting 6 GW to close the 2028/2029 capacity shortfall. The mechanism lets PJM procure new capacity (including BESS with siting advantages) on behalf of new large loads, with costs passed to utilities and ultimately data centers via state tariffs rather than spread to other ratepayers; large loads without their own supply will face priority curtailment in emergencies. This follows repeated capacity auctions clearing at the $325/MW-day cap while falling short of reliability targets due to data-center load growth.
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Coal
What's moving · India ramps coal rail shipments as 58 power plants hit critical low stocks amid monsoon disruptions.
Yancoal Premier mine workers vote 90%+ for strike action
Over 90% of Mining and Energy Union members at Yancoal Australia's Premier mine backed protected industrial action including stoppages longer than 12 hours, with 93% support from the Australian Manufacturing Workers' Union. The thermal coal mine supplies Western Australian power generators and faces closure by 2030 amid the state's coal phase-out. Rising industrial disputes add supply risk to domestic thermal markets.
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India steel prices to climb on coking coal costs, demand
Indian hot-rolled coil prices have already risen 4,000 rupees per tonne since August to a four-year high, with analysts forecasting another 3,500 rupees per tonne increase as post-monsoon infrastructure and auto demand tightens supply. Higher coking coal input costs are being passed through by mills. Rising met coal prices pressure margins for India's steel sector, a key driver of metallurgical coal demand.
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Agriculture
What's moving · Wheat futures surge on stalled US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks disrupting Black Sea grain flows.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
533 |
-0.0%
-0 |
+21.1% |
+34.2% |
+7.5% |
| Wheat |
752 |
+0.6%
+5 |
+48.2% |
+51.8% |
+10.3% |
| Soybeans |
1,318 |
+0.1%
+1 |
+27.9% |
+31.0% |
+4.7% |
| Sugar |
19.31 |
+1.2%
+0.22 |
+28.6% |
+21.2% |
+0.4% |
| Coffee |
288.0 |
-1.2%
-3.4 |
-17.4% |
-28.2% |
+55.6% |
| Cocoa |
5,859 |
-0.9%
-54 |
-3.4% |
-20.4% |
+116.0% |
| Cotton |
86.74 |
+0.5%
+0.42 |
+36.5% |
+33.8% |
-7.2% |
Wheat jumps as Ukraine peace hopes fade
Chicago wheat futures rose 2.2% to $7.51 to 1/4 per bushel Tuesday after US envoys' weekend talks with Putin and Zelenskiy yielded no breakthrough on ending the Ukraine war. Black Sea grain shipments remain near a halt from tit-for-tat port attacks, prompting buyers to seek alternatives and lifting corn 0.6% while soybeans held steady.
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Corn harvest at 5%, condition hits season low
USDA's Sept. 8 Crop Progress report showed 5% of US corn harvested as of Sept. 6, ahead of the five-year average of 3%. The national crop rated 56% good-to-excellent, a season low and down from 68% a year earlier, with 76% dented and 25% mature ahead of averages.
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Wheat rises 1.8% on Black Sea fighting
December Chicago wheat climbed 1.8% to $7.47 to 1/4 per bushel Tuesday as Russia-Ukraine attacks persist on ports and shipping with no substantive peace progress from US envoy visits. Soybeans rose 0.5% to $13.16 to 3/4 while corn fell 0.8% to $5.32 to 3/4 amid pre-WASDE positioning.
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Wheat gains on Russia-Ukraine attacks
December Chicago SRW wheat settled up 13 cents at $7.47 per bushel and KC HRW rose 16.75 cents to $8.19 Tuesday on ongoing Black Sea port attacks and higher crude. Soybeans gained modestly while corn eased on technical selling and profit-taking after the holiday weekend.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME copper hits fresh records near $14,700 to 14,800/t as US tariff fears drain non-US stocks and COMEX hoards hit records.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
14,905 |
-0.9%
-138 |
+20.1% |
+48.6% |
+57.8% |
Copper
SHFE $/mt |
14,709 |
+0.6%
+82 |
+15.8% |
+48.6% |
+54.2% |
Aluminium
SHFE $/mt |
3,241 |
+0.5%
+15 |
+8.9% |
+26.3% |
+11.7% |
Zinc
SHFE $/mt |
3,619 |
-0.2%
-7 |
+20.5% |
+31.6% |
+18.6% |
Nickel
SHFE $/mt |
16,810 |
+0.6%
+101 |
-0.7% |
+10.6% |
-18.2% |
Lead
SHFE $/mt |
2,128 |
+0.5%
+11 |
-3.4% |
+2.1% |
+4.4% |
Tin
SHFE $/mt |
55,098 |
-0.1%
-66 |
+31.2% |
+62.4% |
+61.2% |
Copper hits new LME record on tight non-US supply and US tariff flows.
Three-month LME copper rose 1.1% to $14,674/t, surpassing Monday's record, with SHFE copper also hitting highs near 110,890 yuan. Physical metal is flowing heavily to the US on tariff expectations, pushing LME stocks down nearly 40% since late May and SHFE inventories to their lowest since January 2024 at 63,000 t. Zinc, aluminum, nickel and tin posted smaller gains amid the broader tightness.
Read →
Copper extends rally to fresh LME high on supply squeeze and US tariffs.
LME three-month copper touched an all-time peak of $14,635/t, up for a fourth session and 17% YTD, as refined copper shifts to the US ahead of possible tariffs and LME stocks drain. China peak-season demand is expected to support prices while mine output risks its first annual decline since 2017; other metals were mixed with nickel and zinc higher.
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LME copper dips from record but stays elevated on US inventory build.
LME copper fell 0.55% to $14,628/t after Tuesday's all-time high of $14,779/t as COMEX stocks climbed further to 797,275 short tons. Analysts see potential for a test of $15,000/t soon if tariffs proceed, though the move is increasingly policy-driven and vulnerable to delays; other LME metals edged lower.
Read →
Base metals retreat from LME records amid Middle East escalation.
Bloomberg News ·
Bloomberg · Tue, Sep 8, 2026
The LME all-in base metals index hit a record Tuesday on copper strength, aluminum gains and zinc above $4,000/t for the first time since 2022 before retreating on Middle East risks. Supply tightness drove the advance, but geopolitical threats to global growth now weigh on sentiment.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore holds above $100/t as DCE futures rise 1.36% on Golden September hopes and falling shipments.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
97.4 |
-0.8%
-0.8 |
-3.3% |
+1.8% |
-8.6% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
402 |
+0.1%
+0 |
+2.1% |
+3.8% |
-44.2% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
437 |
-0.1%
-0 |
+6.0% |
+6.3% |
-42.3% |
Precious Metals
What's moving · PBoC adds 20.2t gold in August, its largest purchase since 2023, extending 22-month buying streak amid rate-hike bets.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,442 |
+0.1%
+3 |
+2.7% |
+21.9% |
+147.1% |
| Silver |
67.18 |
+0.3%
+0.18 |
-4.2% |
+63.3% |
+178.4% |
| Platinum |
1,855 |
+0.1%
+2 |
-8.8% |
+33.2% |
+90.5% |
| Palladium |
1,365 |
-0.3%
-4 |
-16.2% |
+14.3% |
-36.2% |
PBoC adds record 20.2t gold in August, biggest since 2023
China’s central bank added 20.2 metric tonnes of gold in August, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, lifting official holdings to roughly 2,387 tonnes and marking the 22nd straight month of accumulation. The move came as prices pulled back earlier in the year and follows double-digit monthly buys since May. Central banks led by China and Poland remain the dominant buyers year-to-date, with reported purchases totaling around 130t so far in 2026.
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Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's August rare earth exports rose 12% m/m to 4,735 t but stayed below average with lingering US supply worries ahead of Xi-Trump talks.
Aclara, JOGMEC form JV to explore heavy rare earths in Brazil
Aclara Resources entered a JV with Japan's JOGMEC to explore ionic clay-hosted heavy rare earth deposits in Brazil. JOGMEC will fund up to US$3 million (option for +US$1.5 million) over three years for a potential 30% interest and offtake rights. The deal validates Aclara's assets and creates a direct pathway for Japanese supply of dysprosium, terbium and other heavies outside China.
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Brazil's BNDES funds Viridis Colossus rare earth project
Brazil's development bank BNDES approved R$77.5 million (US$15 million) financing for Viridis Mining's Colossus rare earth project in Minas Gerais. Funds support a research center, demonstration plant and processing routes for mixed rare earth carbonate. The move advances Brazil's push to develop its large non-Chinese reserves amid global friend-shoring efforts.
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China rare earth exports up 12% m/m in August but US access uncertain
China exported 4,735 metric tons of rare earths in August, up 12.1% from July's 4,224 t but 18.2% below August 2025 and below the YTD monthly average. Cumulative Jan-Aug exports fell 11.1% y/y while dollar value rose 53.5%. Some Chinese suppliers are declining US shipments over Beijing repercussions, keeping US supply tight weeks before Xi's Washington visit.
Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI rebounds 0.3% to 3,584 as Capesize rates lift dry bulk despite Panama dip.
BDI rises 0.3% to 3,584 on Capesize rebound.
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk freight index rose 0.3% to 3,584 points Tuesday after a 1.4% drop Monday. Capesize index rebounded 0.4% to 6,313 points and Supramax gained 0.7% to 1,693, while Panamax fell 0.7% to 2,414 points. The move reflects firmer iron ore and coal demand in key segments.
Read →
18 nations warn of structural shift in global trade.
The Consultative Shipping Group of 18 nations including UK, Germany, South Korea, Canada and Singapore issued a joint statement citing armed conflicts, trade wars and extreme weather as drivers of a structural shift. Shipping routes are increasingly leverage and risk instruments. The warning highlights persistent disruptions to maritime supply chains.
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Environment
What's moving · EUAs hit 7-week high at €86/t on utility hedging and energy-market rise.
EUAs hit 7-week high on utility hedging, energy rally
EU carbon prices jumped to their highest level in nearly seven weeks amid a broad rise in energy markets. Bullish sources cited rising utility hedging driven by higher coal margins as the key driver, with modest volumes reflecting limited speculative interest. The move tightens near-term supply expectations in the EU ETS.
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RGGI Q3 auction seen clearing below secondary prices
Traders and analysts expect Wednesday’s Q3 RGGI auction, the first since Virginia rejoined, to clear at a discount to current secondary market prices. Virginia’s return adds supply and compliance demand in the final 2026 auctions. The outcome will set the tone for RGGI allowance balances heading into winter.
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France, Germany seek extra free EU ETS allowances
A leaked document shows France and Germany calling for more free EU ETS allowances for industries this decade than the European Commission proposed. The push comes amid ongoing ETS reform talks and could ease compliance costs for trade-exposed sectors. It signals continued political pressure to soften industrial exposure in the carbon market.
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Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Polymarket launched 20x-leverage perpetuals on WTI/Brent oil and gold/silver Sept 3, extending 24/7 commodity trading.
OCBC launches tokenized physical gold fund in SE Asia
Hubbis · Mon, Sep 7 (time unknown)
OCBC, Lion Global Investors and DigiFT launched the GOLDX token, Southeast Asia’s first tokenized physical gold fund on public blockchains (Ethereum and Solana), allowing institutional and accredited investors to subscribe/redeem with stablecoins or fiat under MAS-regulated entities. The underlying LionGlobal Singapore Physical Gold Fund holds S$669.4 million in AUM; the product expands regulated on-chain gold access beyond Tether Gold and PAXG dominance.
Read →
Hyperliquid pushes SEC-CFTC harmonization on perps
The Hyperliquid Policy Center filed a comment letter urging the SEC and CFTC to unify treatment of perpetual contracts by economic structure rather than underlying asset, citing over $480 billion in HIP-3 RWA volume (including oil, gold and silver) and $4 billion open interest. The push seeks clearer onshore pathways for commodity perps amid Trump administration comments on bringing Hyperliquid into U.S. compliance.
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Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil patch consolidation accelerates with Tamarack-Headwater $7.24B Clearwater merger and Rio Tinto bauxite buy from Glencore.
Tamarack, Headwater merge in $7.24B all-stock Clearwater oil deal
Tamarack Valley Energy agreed to acquire Headwater Exploration in a C$10 billion ($7.24 billion) all-stock merger. The deal creates Canada's largest publicly traded pure-play producer in Alberta's Clearwater oil play with run-rate output above 80,000 boepd and more than 1,500 contiguous sections. Tamarack shareholders will own 66.5% of the combined entity.
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Rio Tinto buys Aurukun bauxite project from Glencore JV
Rio Tinto agreed to acquire the Aurukun Bauxite Project in Queensland from a Glencore-Mitsubishi joint venture. The deal expands Rio's existing Weipa bauxite operations in the region, though the project remains under a mineral development licence without a mining lease. Financial terms were not disclosed and regulatory approvals are pending.
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TotalEnergies takes operatorship of Namibia Mopane discovery
TotalEnergies completed a swap with Galp, acquiring a 40% operated interest in Namibia's PEL83 licence containing the Mopane oil discovery. Galp received a 10% stake in the Venus discovery block and a 9.39% interest in PEL91. The move positions TotalEnergies to operate Namibia's two largest offshore discoveries ahead of appraisal drilling.
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Williams closes $5.5B Momentum Midstream acquisition
Williams closed its $5.5 billion acquisition of Momentum Midstream, adding more than 4,000 miles of Haynesville pipelines and 6 Bcf/d gathering capacity. The deal expands Williams' position to serve growing Gulf Coast LNG, power and industrial demand. Williams raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance following the close.
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Regulation & Government
What's moving · Canada's $20 to 28B retaliatory tariffs on US goods take effect amid escalating US-Canada trade war.
Canada slaps 15 to 50% tariffs on $20B+ US goods
Canada imposed 15 to 50% tariffs on hundreds of US imports worth about $20 to 28 billion, including steel, dairy, appliances, electronics and agricultural equipment, in direct retaliation for US 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods. The duties, effective 12:01 a.m. ET Tuesday after talks collapsed, target products mirroring those hit by Washington and aim to pressure the US into new negotiations. This escalates the bilateral trade dispute with potential knock-on effects for North American commodity flows in steel, aluminum derivatives and farm inputs.
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Canada enacts dollar-for-dollar US tariffs
Prime Minister Mark Carney's government activated counter-tariffs on 629 US items covering roughly $27.6 to 28 billion, with rates of 15%, 25% or 50% hitting steel/aluminum products, wood, consumer goods and more. The move responds to US tariffs on Canadian exports and follows the breakdown of talks, with Ottawa selecting items to maximize leverage on swing-state industries. Commodity-relevant impacts include higher costs for US steel and aluminum derivatives plus potential supply-chain shifts in North American metals and agriculture equipment trade.
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Canada hits back with tariffs on US steel, fish
Canada rolled out 15 to 50% tariffs on more than 700 US products including steel, fish, cheese, smartphones and other goods starting Sept. 8, matching the value of recent US duties on Canadian items. The retaliation targets sectors hit hardest by Washington's measures and seeks to restore negotiating leverage without broader escalation. For commodities, it directly raises barriers on US steel and aluminum goods already subject to Section 232 duties, potentially tightening North American metals markets.
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EU enables seizure of Russian shadow fleet oil, grain
The EU published a Council regulation authorizing member states to confiscate and sell Russian oil and grain cargoes from over 670 blacklisted shadow fleet tankers, with proceeds barred from reaching Russian entities. This expands prior inspection powers to active seizure and sales, targeting vessels evading sanctions or carrying stolen Ukrainian grain. The measure tightens enforcement on Russian energy exports and related commodity flows amid ongoing sanctions pressure.
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UK expands Iran energy, finance sanctions
The UK broadened sanctions targeting Iran's energy and financial sectors while providing exemptions for joint Azerbaijani gas projects. The action adds to Western pressure on Iranian energy exports amid regional tensions. It affects commodity trading in oil, gas and related products by further restricting Iranian access to international markets and finance.
Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Oil nears $100 on ME supply risks and strikes
Traders on X highlight WTI climbing near $94 to 95 with Brent pushing $100 amid ongoing US-Iran tensions, tanker attacks in the Gulf, and fears of prolonged Hormuz disruptions. Discussions note the move as the strongest commodity bid while metals lag, with positioning seen as building on geopolitical premiums ahead of CPI data.
Read →
Gold stuck near $4400 amid oil and Fed bets
Traders discuss gold consolidating around $4390 to 4450 with mixed moves as geopolitical risk from oil and Middle East supports it but stronger US jobs data and odds of Fed rate hikes cap gains. ETF flows are cited as a buffer while silver trades softer below $67.
Read →
Uranium steady near $90 on AI nuclear demand
Discussions note uranium futures near six-month highs around $89 to 90/lb as Meta, Amazon and Microsoft ink deals for new nuclear capacity to power AI data centers. Supply risks and long-term demand keep sentiment constructive despite limited spot activity.
Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc., the company behind BoxWood. BoxWood is commodity hedge management software for oil and gas producers, fuel consumers, refiners, and trade houses: AI-checked trade confirmations, one-click daily mark-to-market, counterparty reconciliation, settlements, scenario analysis, and automated daily reports for natural gas, NGL, crude, refined-product, and basis hedges.
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