Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 42 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Thu, Sep 10, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up $1 (+1%) with Brent futures $101 and WTI $98. Cash physical Brent is $109. Since last Friday (Sep 5) the US destroyed about 8, 10 Iranian oil tankers, following Iranian attacks on US Navy vessels and a US base in Jordan. Hormuz flows dropped sharply on Wednesday to just 2 million barrels a day versus 8 before last Friday. China had recently increased crude purchases: now question is will they continue with crude over $100.
Platinum down $46 (-2.4%) on investor selling and WPIC forecast of first annual surplus since 2022.
Coffee down $6.4 (-2.2%) on Brazil harvest completion boosting near-term availability.
Silver down $1.41 (-2.1%).
Dutch TTF up $1.35 (+1.7%) on Middle East LNG supply squeeze from Qatar Ras Laffan disruptions and low European storage.
Palladium down $20 (-1.4%) on investor selling and surplus outlook.
Kicker: Citi recommends long COMEX palladium on underpriced Section 232 critical minerals tariff risk.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Data centers push uranium prices to 18-year high
Spot U3O8 prices hit their highest level since early February, driven by surging power demand from data centers for AI. Long-term uranium prices are at their highest in at least 18 years as investors bet on nuclear power growth.
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Brent tops $100 as US sinks Iranian tankers
Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July after U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. Escalating Middle East conflict and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz tightened the market.
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Brent hits $100 but rally stays gradual
Brent crude reached $100 a barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities. Analysts note the gradual pace despite tight physical markets and rising diesel shortages.
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Oil
What's moving · Brent surges above $100/bbl on US-Iran tanker strikes and Hormuz fears.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
97.38 |
+1.4%
+1.33 |
+69.6% |
+56.1% |
+39.7% |
| Brent |
102.27 |
+1.0%
+1.06 |
+68.1% |
+54.1% |
+40.2% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.230 |
+0.6%
+0.020 |
+79.9% |
+55.0% |
+42.4% |
| Heating Oil |
4.751 |
-1.0%
-0.050 |
+107.3% |
+92.7% |
+104.9% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
38.29 |
-1.3%
-0.51 |
+112.8%
+20.30 |
+52.2%
+13.14 |
+50.0%
+12.76 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
102.16 |
-3.2%
-3.43 |
+163.1%
+63.33 |
+147.9%
+60.96 |
+269.0%
+74.48 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
59.58 |
-2.4%
-1.48 |
+138.9%
+34.64 |
+95.3%
+29.08 |
+127.0%
+33.33 |
EIA raises 2026 Brent forecast to $91/bbl on inventory draws
Shariq Khan, Scott DiSavino ·
Reuters · Wed, Sep 9, 2026
The US Energy Information Administration lifted its 2026 Brent forecast nearly 5% to about $91/bbl and WTI to $84.65/bbl after global inventories fell 400 million barrels this year. Middle East output shut-ins rose to 6.7 million bpd in August from 5 million bpd in July, with attacks on Bab el-Mandeb exports adding pressure. The agency expects stocks to keep declining through year-end, keeping prices elevated.
Read →
Brent tops $100/bbl for first time in six weeks on escalation
Tony Munroe, Alex Lawler ·
Reuters · Wed, Sep 9, 2026
Brent futures rose 3.4% to settle at $101.21/bbl, the highest close since May 22, after US forces sank five Iranian tankers and Iran attacked ships near Hormuz. About 10 million bpd of Middle East exports remain offline, with US SPR at its lowest since 1982 and global stocks drawn down sharply. The move signals vulnerability after months of supply losses and inventory depletion.
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Brent steadies near $101/bbl after tanker attacks escalate
Brent held near $101/bbl as Iran vowed readiness for more intense war following US strikes on its tankers. WTI traded above $96/bbl. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted just under 11 million bpd moving through Hormuz, while diesel prices hit records and US distillate inventories are forecast to fall to multi-decade lows.
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Brent above $100/bbl as tanker attacks deepen supply fears
Front-month Brent traded around $100.42-$101.84/bbl after US destruction of five Iranian tankers and renewed Iranian threats. HSBC raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl from $80, citing constrained Hormuz flows expected to rise only gradually to 8 to 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027 versus pre-conflict 19 to 20 million bpd. China buying remains a key variable for the rally.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Record US Lower 48 output at 113.5 bcfd and milder demand forecasts drive Henry Hub futures to two-week low near $2.845/MMBtu.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.790 |
-1.1%
-0.032 |
-24.3% |
-4.9% |
-43.5% |
US natgas futures fall to two-week low on record output
Front-month October NYMEX futures fell 7.1 cents or 2.4% to $2.845 per MMBtu. LSEG data showed Lower 48 dry gas output averaging 113.5 bcfd in September so far, up from August's record 112.2 bcfd. Ample storage above the five-year average and lower demand forecasts for this week versus prior outlook weighed on prices despite LNG feedgas flows rising to 18.3 bcfd.
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US natgas futures decline as weather cools
NYMEX natural gas settled down 3.2% at $2.822 per MMBtu. Analysts cited cooler late-September forecasts cutting power-sector demand and ample storage supplies. The market eyes a smaller-than-average storage build in Thursday's EIA report despite LNG demand near April highs.
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Cooler forecasts break natgas below 50-day average
James Hyerczyk ·
FXEmpire · Wed, Sep 9, 2026
October NYMEX futures traded at $2.863 per MMBtu, down 1.82%. Lower-48 dry gas production hit 114.3 bcfd last week while LNG feedgas reached a four-month high. Fading cooling demand and forecasts for milder fall weather outweighed export support.
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Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF surges above €79/MWh on low EU storage and Middle East supply risks; JKM holds near $24.70/MMBtu amid tight global LNG.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Dutch TTF
€/MWh |
80.60 |
+1.7%
+1.35 |
+186.2% |
+149.4% |
+39.2% |
Dutch TTF
$/MMBtu |
27.49 |
+1.7%
+0.46 |
+186.2% |
+149.4% |
+39.2% |
JKM
$/MMBtu |
24.68 |
+1.2%
+0.30 |
+157.0% |
+117.6% |
+32.4% |
TTF futures climb to near €80/MWh levels
October 2026 TTF contract traded around €78.17, €79.91/MWh with recent sessions posting gains of several percent, including a +4.66% day. Volumes remain elevated as the benchmark reflects storage shortfalls and geopolitical LNG constraints. The price action underscores ongoing tightness in northwest European gas markets.
Read →
JKM futures near $24.69/MMBtu with modest gains
JKM Platts futures settled around $24.685/MMBtu, up roughly 1.23% in the latest session. The Asian benchmark reflects steady Northeast Asian demand and competition for spot cargoes diverted from or competing with Europe. Limited new supply keeps the arb spread with TTF narrow.
Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM files FERC backstop auction plan to fill 6.8 GW data-center-driven capacity shortfall.
PJM files FERC plan for backstop auction to fill 6.8 GW shortfall
PJM filed a proposal at FERC for a one-time reliability backstop auction from Sept. 30 to Oct. 21 to procure new capacity and close a 6.8 GW shortfall left by its last base residual auction. Surging data center load forecasts and lagging new supply caused the gap; the plan also enables bilateral deals between data centers and generators, with costs allocated across zones and a proposed $555/MW-day price cap.
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German power prices surge on wind slump to €192/MWh
German day-ahead power prices on EPEX SPOT rose to the highest level since June, averaging €191.82/MWh, with the 7 p.m. hour peaking at €460.86/MWh. Forecast wind output dropping to 3.5 GW at peak hours forced greater reliance on costlier fossil fuels, tightening the market on EPEX.
Read →
Coal
What's moving · IEA lifts 2026 global coal demand forecast 1.2% to record 8.94 billion tonnes on Middle East-driven gas-to-coal switch.
IEA raises 2026 coal demand 1.2% to record 8.94 Bt on gas prices
The IEA's Coal Mid-Year Update revises global coal demand up 1.2% to a record 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026, reversing its prior slight-decline call. Higher natural gas prices from Strait of Hormuz LNG disruptions have boosted coal-fired generation in Europe, Japan, Korea and China beyond prior expectations. Production falls this year but stays above 9 billion tonnes, tightening the market balance and supporting seaborne prices.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Wheat drops on Black Sea profit-taking and diplomacy headlines as grains ease ahead of Friday WASDE.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
531 |
+0.5%
+3 |
+20.5% |
+33.0% |
+5.5% |
| Wheat |
729 |
+0.0%
+0 |
+43.7% |
+44.9% |
+8.0% |
| Soybeans |
1,315 |
+0.4%
+6 |
+27.6% |
+29.5% |
+3.1% |
| Sugar |
18.60 |
+1.1%
+0.20 |
+23.9% |
+17.6% |
-1.0% |
| Coffee |
285.7 |
-2.2%
-6.4 |
-18.1% |
-28.6% |
+53.9% |
| Cocoa |
5,882 |
-1.2%
-69 |
-3.0% |
-21.1% |
+122.6% |
| Cotton |
88.06 |
+0.9%
+0.78 |
+35.3% |
+33.0% |
-8.7% |
Wheat falls on Black Sea profit-taking and diplomacy
Chicago wheat futures fell as traders weighed diplomatic efforts to end Russia-Ukraine war against ongoing Black Sea export disruptions, with profit-taking after a strong rally also weighing. Corn and soybeans eased modestly while attention turns to USDA supply-demand forecasts Friday that will gauge Midwest weather damage. The most-traded CBOT wheat contract was down 7.5 cents to $7.39 to 1/4 per bushel, holding below last week's 3.5-year high of $7.95.
Read →
Grains fall on dollar, harvest and Black Sea profit-taking
Grain tracker funds slipped Wednesday with wheat leading declines as Black Sea ceasefire headlines prompted profit-taking after a sharp rally. Soybeans and corn posted softer losses amid a firmer US dollar and early US harvest supplies widening cash basis, with traders positioning ahead of Friday's WASDE report. Brazilian and Argentine export competitiveness remains key for Latin American producers amid local currency swings.
Read →
China buys 1M tons US soybeans ahead of Xi visit
Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral ·
Reuters · Thu, Sep 10, 2026
China purchased around 1 million metric tons of US soybeans this week via state stockpiler Sinograin, taking total buying toward half of its 25 million ton annual commitment through 2028. Cargoes are booked for US Gulf shipment December-February ahead of President Xi's Washington visit later this month. USDA Wednesday reported 340,000 tons sold to China plus 100,000 tons unknown, providing underlying support to soy futures.
Read →
Sugar and arabica coffee rise on tight supplies
Raw sugar futures on ICE edged higher, supported by tight supplies in top consumer India where port refineries may divert 250,000 tons refined sugar domestically, plus higher energy prices. Arabica coffee also rose as certified stocks fell to a 26-year low. White sugar gained while London cocoa fell and robusta coffee rose.
Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper hits fresh LME record near $14,860/t on US tariff-driven inventory shifts and mine supply shortfalls.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/mt |
15,030 |
-1.0%
-157 |
+21.1% |
+48.5% |
+53.3% |
Copper
SHFE $/mt |
14,835 |
+0.9%
+126 |
+16.8% |
+49.9% |
+55.5% |
Aluminium
SHFE $/mt |
3,241 |
-0.0%
-1 |
+8.9% |
+26.3% |
+11.7% |
Zinc
SHFE $/mt |
3,655 |
+1.0%
+37 |
+21.7% |
+32.9% |
+19.8% |
Nickel
SHFE $/mt |
16,952 |
+0.8%
+143 |
+0.1% |
+11.5% |
-17.5% |
Lead
SHFE $/mt |
2,123 |
-0.3%
-5 |
-3.6% |
+1.8% |
+4.1% |
Tin
SHFE $/mt |
55,884 |
+1.4%
+786 |
+33.0% |
+64.7% |
+63.5% |
Copper reaches new LME highs on tariff fears and global mine supply issues
Three-month LME copper futures climbed 1.5% to $14,728 per tonne after touching $14,779 intraday, up nearly 18% year-to-date. Global copper mine production fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026 amid operational challenges at major mines. Comex copper for September delivery rose 2.2% to a record $6.739 per pound as tariff concerns distort trade flows.
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Copper eases from records as China imports fall and mine output declines
LME three-month copper slipped 0.4% to $14,645.50 per tonne after hitting $14,779 on Tuesday. China’s August unwrought copper imports dropped to 382,000 tonnes, the weakest August in six years and 6.7% below last year’s total through August. Global mine production fell 1.1% in H1 2026, with analysts now forecasting flat-to-lower output for the full year, the first annual decline since 2017.
Read →
China builds aluminium smelters abroad to bypass domestic capacity cap
Andy Home ·
Reuters · Tue, Sep 8, 2026
Chinese smelters are exceeding Beijing’s 45-million-tonne annual capacity cap, with output running above the limit for months due to strong margins and low alumina costs. Producers are investing in new smelters in Indonesia and elsewhere, including projects by Tsingshan partners and others in Kazakhstan and Angola. This expands China’s global share toward 63% as Western capacity lags.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · CMRG directs mills to pause Rio Tinto Pilbara Blend purchases amid contract talks, pressuring the 62% Fe complex.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
96.4 |
-1.0%
-1.0 |
-4.2% |
+0.7% |
-9.6% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
400 |
-0.5%
-2 |
+1.5% |
+3.2% |
-44.5% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
435 |
-0.4%
-2 |
+5.5% |
+5.9% |
-42.5% |
Vale slips; Dalian iron ore futures ease to 738 CNY/t
On Sep 9, Vale shares fell 0.77% to US$15.44 while the 62% Fe benchmark held near US$100/t; the most active Dalian contract closed down 0.87% at 738 CNY/t. Chinese mills remain in the Golden September restocking window but face structurally lower steel output. Vale reaffirmed its 335 to 345 Mt 2026 production guidance amid a seaborne surplus.
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Rio pursues bauxite deal as CMRG pauses ore buys
Rio Tinto agreed to acquire the Aurukun bauxite project while facing CMRG instructions for some mills to hold off on Pilbara Blend purchases during contract negotiations. The pause echoes prior CMRG actions against other Australian miners. CMRG centralizes purchases representing over half of China’s annual iron ore import volumes.
Read →
DCE iron ore dips on soft fundamentals
The most active January Dalian iron ore contract fell about 0.5% to CNY733.5/t in early trade as steel market weakness limits restocking gains despite pre-holiday support and elevated freight. Domestic supply is rising while mill margins stay pressured. Prices are expected to remain rangebound under persistent supply pressure.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Platinum gains on shifting Fed rate expectations while gold and silver stabilize near $4,397/oz and $67.30/oz.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,435 |
-0.6%
-26 |
+2.5% |
+21.9% |
+147.8% |
| Silver |
67.24 |
-2.1%
-1.41 |
-4.1% |
+61.2% |
+181.8% |
| Platinum |
1,873 |
-2.4%
-46 |
-7.9% |
+34.2% |
+95.8% |
| Palladium |
1,361 |
-1.4%
-20 |
-16.5% |
+11.6% |
-35.9% |
Platinum rises as gold, silver stabilize amid Fed outlook shifts
Spot gold held near $4,396.69/oz and silver at $67.30/oz with modest futures moves. Platinum climbed 0.1% to $1,897.57/oz and palladium 0.2% to $1,355.44/oz. The moves reflect shifting U.S. rate expectations and resilient data, giving PGMs relative strength versus gold and silver.
Read →
Gold steady ahead of U.S. PPI and CPI data
Spot gold was nearly unchanged at $4,396.69/oz as traders awaited U.S. PPI today and CPI Friday. Markets price a 60% chance of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting. Platinum rose 0.1% while the WPIC noted a shift to the first platinum surplus since 2022 on weaker investment and jewelry demand.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China export curbs and November deadline drive rare earths as Western producers ramp with price floors.
China curbs tighten race for non-Chinese rare earths
China recently imposed export controls on MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, targeting US efforts to build domestic sources. MP Materials produced 51,000 tons of rare earth oxide concentrate in 2025 and targets 48,000 tons in 2026; Lynas produced 12,000 tons and targets 16,000 tons. The curbs accelerate non-Chinese capacity expansion amid China's dominance in the 17 rare earth elements essential for permanent magnets in EVs, wind turbines and AI infrastructure.
Read →
China adds 10 US firms to rare earth export control list
China's MOFCOM tightened export restrictions on 10 US companies including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, denying permits for dual-use rare earths and magnets. The full ban replaces prior licensing requirements and also covers lithium and graphite. A second wave on holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium shifts to November 10, 2026.
Read →
Yttrium shortages spark new rare earth supply crisis
Chinese export restrictions have cut yttrium supplies to the US by about 75 percent this year, with exports stopping in recent months. European yttrium dioxide prices have risen 4,400 percent to $270 per kilogram since January. Aerospace and semiconductor sectors face shortages and rationing risks from the element used in high-temperature coatings and insulators.
Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Tanker rates surge to records near $800k/day on VLCCs amid prolonged Hormuz disruptions and rerouting.
Tanker rates hit records near $800k/day on Hormuz strain
Global VLCC earnings on the Middle East-to-China route reached a record near $800,000 per day. US Gulf-to-Asia VLCC lump-sum charters hit a record $29.5 million. The surge reflects ongoing Persian Gulf conflict forcing complex workarounds and tighter tanker supply for oil trades.
Read →
Suezmax period rates enter six figures on VLCC strength
Suezmax time-charter rates climbed into six figures, lifted by the buoyant VLCC spot market. Polemis secured strong period business amid spillover demand from larger crude carriers. The move signals sustained strength across crude tanker segments tied to Hormuz-related dislocation.
Read →
Gulf VLCC earnings near $800k/day on strikes and tight supply
Eric Priante Martin ·
TradeWinds · Tue, Sep 9, 2026
VLCC earnings on key Gulf routes approached $800,000 per day amid tanker strikes and persistent Hormuz uncertainty. Mercuria fixed a record-tying $29.5 million lump-sum US Gulf-to-China voyage. Tight tonnage lists and ongoing disruptions continue to support extreme rate levels.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs climb to 7-week high on soaring gas/power prices despite weak output and rising free allowances.
WCAs plunge nearly 20% after Q3 auction clears below $40
Washington Carbon Allowance futures fell more than $8 or nearly 20% on Wednesday after the state's Q3 auction cleared at a two-year low under $40 per allowance, well below pre-sale secondary market levels. The weak clearing price signals softer near-term demand or positioning ahead of linkage with California-Quebec and the 2027 compliance deadline. Lower WCA prices may pressure linked or related environmental commodity valuations.
Read →
EUAs hit 7-week high on gas/power surge, ignore weak output
European Union Allowance prices rose strongly in the morning to set another seven-week high before paring gains, driven by surging natural gas and power prices that boosted hedging demand even as industrial output data weakened and free allowance supply grew. Traders noted the market's resilience despite bearish fundamentals. The move lifts the EUA complex and supports related emissions trading sentiment.
Read →
Bank forecasts EUAs at €180 to 270/t by 2040 on ETS reform
A Nordic bank analysis projects EU carbon prices could reach €180 to 270 per tonne by 2040 under the European Commission's proposed overhaul of the EU Emissions Trading System. The reform includes a slower linear reduction factor, extended free allocations tied to decarbonisation investments, and other adjustments to balance ambition with competitiveness. Longer-term bullish price signals reinforce the structural upward trajectory for EUAs amid ongoing policy evolution.
Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Polymarket launches oil/gold/silver perps with 20x leverage as Dubai tokenizes record silver bar.
Dubai launches first tokenized silver bar under DMCC-VARA
DMCC and VARA enabled issuance of fractional digital interests in a 1,971 kg Guinness World Record silver bar on Sep 7 via Tokinvest on BNB Chain. Brink's provides custody and DMCC Tradeflow verifies the physical asset as the first tokenized commodity under the framework. The launch marks Dubai's push to connect physical precious metals with on-chain fractional ownership for eligible investors.
Read →
First Digital, ITCEN partner on $7.2B gold tokenization
First Digital signed an MOU with ITCEN Group on Sep 9 to link FDUSD with KGLD, a LayerZero OFT gold-backed token, for compliant international access. ITCEN plans to tokenize 50 metric tons of physical gold over five years, targeting roughly $7.2 billion. First Digital will open a South Korea branch in Q4 2026 to support local stablecoin rules.
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Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil tops $100 amid Middle East tensions as majors announce Angola capex, Baker Hughes lifts guidance post-Chart deal and Energean reports H1 profit jump.
Baker Hughes lifts 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance after Chart deal
Baker Hughes raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $28.50 to 30.30 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $4.88 to 5.48 billion after closing the $13.6 billion Chart Industries acquisition in July. CEO Lorenzo Simonelli highlighted improving visibility for LNG equipment orders into 2027 despite near-term headwinds from project timing and hydrogen demand. The update underscores services-sector consolidation and LNG-linked growth amid volatile energy markets.
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TotalEnergies commits $10B to Angola production and exploration
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the company and partners will invest $10 billion in Angola over five years to sustain 450,000 bpd output and advance projects including the $6 billion Kaminho FPSO. The firm also signed new exploration licenses for Blocks 17 and 32 with ExxonMobil and announced the Acacia-5 discovery adding 6,000 bpd via fast-track tie-in. The spend supports Angola's goal of holding national production near 1 million bpd.
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Energean H1 profit rises 45% as Israel output recovers
Energean reported first-half profit after tax of $160 million, up 45% year-on-year, aided by a lower Italian tax charge after recognizing deferred tax assets. Production averaged 124,000 boepd in H1 but rebounded strongly post-April restart, with August rates exceeding 180,000 boepd and eight-month average at 135,000 boepd in line with full-year 130 to 140,000 boepd guidance. The gas-focused producer keeps Katlan first gas on track for H1 2027.
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Chevron to more than double Venezuela rigs in five-year plan
Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner said the company will more than double its Venezuela rig count under updated joint-venture terms and additional Orinoco Belt acreage. The three JVs plan over $7 billion of investment through 2031 to lift output from 290,000 bpd toward 600,000 bpd at costs below $20/bbl. The move expands Chevron's position in the country's largest reserves base.
Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US-Canada trade war escalates with import bans on Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles as Brent oil tops $100/bbl amid US-Iran tanker attacks.
Latvia eyes 300% tariff on Russian, Belarusian grain
Latvia's government plans a 300% tariff on grain imports from Russia and Belarus to curb transit through its ports and infrastructure. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said the measure aims to block Russian and Belarusian grain from using Baltic routes while protecting local farmers and preventing circulation of grain from occupied Ukrainian territories. The Baltic states are seeking a coordinated position as Russia reroutes grain exports amid Black Sea disruptions.
Read →
White House details Section 338 bans on Canadian goods
President Trump signed proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 banning certain Canadian alcohol, dairy and other products while modifying prior 50% tariffs on items like cheese and motorboats. The actions target Canada's alleged discrimination against US exports in alcohol and dairy after Ottawa's new retaliatory tariffs took effect. Bans begin September 29; tariff modifications start September 15, affecting cross-border commodity trade.
Read →
Brent stays above $100 amid fresh Hormuz shipping strikes
Brent crude held above $100 a barrel into Thursday after the largest wave of US-Iran shipping attacks since the conflict began, with Iran striking 10 vessels and the US targeting five Iranian tankers. Physical markets show dated Brent above $100 since September 3 as inventories draw down and alternative routes face pressure from Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities. The EIA raised its price forecasts amid the supply risks.
Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
r/oil debates why oil isn't higher yet
In r/oil daily threads and megathreads, retail participants discuss ongoing Hormuz attacks, tanker tracking data, and why prices have not spiked more aggressively despite visible supply constraints. Sentiment mixes frustration with positioning for further upside on escalation.
Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
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