Morgan Downey's Commodity News
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Friday, August 21, 2026 · 41 stories
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Markets at a glance
Last price as of Fri, Aug 21, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
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Downey's Take
Precious metals complex higher: Platinum up $64 (+3.5%), Palladium up $27 (+2.0%), Silver up $1.66 (+2.4%), Gold up $70 (1.6%) on US Treasury increasing buyback operations lowering bond yields and boosting non-yielding metals appeal.
Crude oil up for a fifth successive day. The renewed US blockade on Iran is starting to pressure both Irans oil exports and Chinas imports more. Offers of Iranian crude cargoes for September-October delivery to Chinese buyers declined sharply this week. Iran's floating storage outside the blockade zone has dropped to 80 million barrels from 105 million before the July 13 re-imposition, and August imports to China have fallen to just 534,000 bpd.
JKM up $0.53 (+2.4%) on persistent Strait of Hormuz security risks and strong late-summer cooling loads across Northeast Asia.
Nat Gas up $0.049 (+1.8%) on smaller-than-expected US storage build amid sustained summer heat demand.
Copper up $0.11 (+1.7%) despite pickup in LME warehouse deliveries relieving supply squeeze.
Kicker: Goldman Sachs sees diesel crack spread strength on low inventories and refinery outages supporting long diesel vs short crude.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Oil rises fifth session on Trump Iran economic threats
Oil futures rose for a fifth straight session as the U.S. plans unprecedented economic isolation on Iran, with WTI for September settling up 2.3% at $87.83 a barrel and Brent up 2.4% at $93.78. Traders viewed the threats seriously amid stalled Hormuz reopening talks but noted limited impact on fundamentals due to alternative routes.
Read →
Iranian oil to China squeezed as blockade bites
About 40 million barrels of Iranian crude sits on vessels near Singapore, but only 10% remains unsold, showing the U.S. blockade's effectiveness in choking revenue to Tehran. Offers of Iranian oil to Chinese buyers have declined sharply.
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Oil on track for second weekly rise amid Hormuz issues
Brent crude futures slipped 0.3% to $93.55 a barrel but were set for a second weekly gain after rising more than 7% over five days on stalled U.S.-Iran war resolution and supply curbs from the Hormuz standoff. WTI followed a similar pattern.
Read →
Oil
What's moving · US-Iran war stalemate and Hormuz blockade lift Brent toward $94/bbl for second straight weekly gain.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
86.25 |
-0.7%
-0.58 |
+50.2% |
+35.5% |
+31.4% |
| Brent |
93.15 |
-0.7%
-0.63 |
+53.1% |
+37.5% |
+35.5% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.271 |
+0.3%
+0.008 |
+76.8% |
+39.7% |
+42.0% |
| Heating Oil |
4.460 |
-0.5%
-0.020 |
+105.0% |
+88.4% |
+116.8% |
NY RBOB Crk
$/bbl |
51.14 |
+1.9%
+0.93 |
+152.0%
+30.85 |
+47.4%
+16.44 |
+64.4%
+20.03 |
NY HO Crk
$/bbl |
101.07 |
-0.3%
-0.27 |
+197.8%
+67.13 |
+182.5%
+65.29 |
+387.1%
+80.32 |
NY 321 Crack
$/bbl |
67.79 |
+0.8%
+0.53 |
+172.8%
+42.94 |
+93.3%
+32.72 |
+145.1%
+40.13 |
Iranian crude offers to China shrink amid US blockade
Offers of Iranian crude cargoes for September-October delivery to Chinese buyers have declined sharply this week as the U.S. blockade curtails Tehran's shipments, with some barrels now quoted at a $2/bbl premium to Brent versus a $3 discount earlier. Iran's floating storage outside the blockade zone has dropped to 80 million barrels from 105 million before the July 13 re-imposition, and August imports to China have fallen to 534,000 bpd. Shandong teapot refiners are shifting toward alternatives such as Brazilian Lapa or Iraqi Basrah crude.
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Oil dips on technical correction but holds weekly gains
Front-month WTI futures fell 0.6% to $86.30/bbl in early European trading after a five-session rally, reflecting a likely technical correction. Losses remain capped by stalled U.S.-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's renewed vow to escalate economic sanctions. Conflicting signals on Hormuz traffic and the threat of additional regional tensions continue to underpin prices.
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Oil heads for weekly surge on US Iran isolation push
Brent traded above $93/bbl on pace for a roughly 6% weekly advance while October WTI held near $86/bbl after five straight sessions of gains. The move follows the U.S. push to isolate Iran's economy, raising the prospect of further market disruption from the conflict. Washington is set to detail additional sanctions measures on Monday.
Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Record US production at 112 Bcf/d and 16 Bcf storage build keep Henry Hub pinned near $2.70-2.80.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
2.782 |
+1.8%
+0.049 |
-24.5% |
+3.1% |
-29.5% |
Power
What's moving · PJM proposes framework for data centers bringing own power amid ongoing capacity shortfalls; ERCOT pauses Batch Zero large-load reviews after Abbott audit order.
PJM proposes IRAS framework and registry for new large loads
PJM filed Aug. 13 at FERC for an Interim Resource Adequacy Service (IRAS) allowing new large loads (≥50 MW peak) to connect without full capacity backing while making uncovered demand curtailable ahead of other resources during tight conditions. The filing addresses the 6,831 MW shortfall from the 2028/29 capacity auction cleared at the $325/MW-day cap and follows a July 31 backstop procurement proposal. Data-center-driven load growth underpins the moves, with PJM forecasting up to 70 GW of additional large-load demand by 2038.
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Texas pauses data center interconnections pending audit
Gov. Greg Abbott ordered an audit of the ERCOT queue totaling 474 GW (90% data centers), prompting ERCOT to delay its Batch Zero transmission planning study for the first large-load projects under new rules. ERCOT requested good-cause exceptions from the Public Utility Commission of Texas at its Aug. 20 meeting; the pause affects energization approvals for projects ≥75 MW peak and could delay timelines for developers reassessing viability.
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PJM reviews ride-through standards after July data center event
PJM is evaluating expanded interconnection reliability requirements including ride-through standards for computational loads after 3,800 MW of data centers tripped offline in northern Virginia on July 22 following a 230-kV line fault in Dominion’s zone. The largest such event in PJM history caused load to drop from 99,984 MW to 96,205 MW with voltage/frequency swings; operators restored balance within NERC timelines. The review aligns with broader NERC efforts on standards for these facilities.
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Coal
What's moving · Metallurgical coal prices surge 25% YTD to $236/t FOB Australia on supply disruptions, lifting costs for Indian steelmakers.
Michigan AG files sixth rehearing bid against DOE order keeping coal plant open.
Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel plans a sixth rehearing request with the U.S. Department of Energy over repeated emergency orders forcing Consumers Energy’s J.H. Campbell coal plant near Lake Michigan to operate more than 14 months past its planned retirement. The orders under the Federal Power Act have extended operations amid claims of grid needs in the MISO region. The challenge continues long-running legal fights over the cost and legality of prolonging coal-fired generation.
Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Pro Farmer Crop Tour shows below-average corn yields in key states, lifting December corn above $5/bu.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
503 |
-0.0%
-0 |
+14.3% |
+29.6% |
-6.5% |
| Wheat |
701 |
+0.2%
+1 |
+38.3% |
+38.9% |
-2.6% |
| Soybeans |
1,232 |
-0.4%
-5 |
+19.5% |
+18.8% |
-4.8% |
| Sugar |
17.28 |
-1.4%
-0.24 |
+15.1% |
+4.9% |
-11.7% |
| Coffee |
332.8 |
+1.1%
+3.5 |
-4.6% |
-14.8% |
+84.9% |
| Cocoa |
5,985 |
-1.3%
-79 |
-1.3% |
-21.1% |
+132.5% |
| Cotton |
88.70 |
+0.4%
+0.35 |
+38.0% |
+33.5% |
-6.2% |
Base Metals
What's moving · LME copper eases as record warehouse inflows ease squeeze amid Chile supply strains and soft China signals.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Copper
NY $/lb |
6.58 |
+1.7%
+0.11 |
+16.8% |
+47.9% |
+55.3% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) |
14,130 |
+0.1%
+21 |
+11.3% |
+46.9% |
+44.4% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) |
3,111 |
+0.1%
+2 |
+4.5% |
+23.3% |
+14.0% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) |
3,371 |
+1.1%
+35 |
+12.2% |
+22.9% |
+9.1% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) |
16,920 |
-0.9%
-156 |
-0.1% |
+14.8% |
-15.5% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) |
2,116 |
+1.0%
+20 |
-3.9% |
+3.5% |
-3.5% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) |
56,325 |
+0.7%
+374 |
+34.1% |
+73.6% |
+73.6% |
Copper slips on Chile output strains, China demand signals
Copper futures eased 0.11% on Aug 20 to settle at US$6.48/lb. Traders weighed mixed Chilean June mine output, including Codelco declines, against softer global factory signals. Miner shares including Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan rose, pointing to longer-term supply tightness from the world's top producer.
Read →
Alcoa signs 10-year gas deal with Equus for WA refineries
Alcoa · Wed, Aug 19, 2026
Alcoa signed a binding conditional 10-year gas sales agreement with Equus Energy for 50 TJ/day supply to its Pinjarra and Wagerup alumina refineries in Western Australia. The deal follows pre-FEED progress on the Equus Gas Project and positions Alcoa as the foundation domestic customer. Supply is targeted for the early to mid-2030s pending approvals and FID.
Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel output rebounds while construction demand stays weak, pinning iron ore near $95/t.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
Iron Ore 62%
DCE $/dmt |
93.1 |
-0.5%
-0.5 |
-7.6% |
-3.5% |
-34.8% |
Rebar
SHFE $/mt |
395 |
+0.4%
+2 |
+0.2% |
-0.1% |
-47.6% |
HRC
SHFE $/mt |
430 |
+0.1%
+0 |
+4.3% |
+2.7% |
-46.7% |
Vale shares climb as China steel output rises but construction demand lags.
CISA mills lifted crude steel output 5.8% in early August versus late July to 1.973 million tonnes per day, though still 4.9% below year-ago levels. Rebar prices drifted lower to 3,216 yuan per tonne on August 13 amid building finished-steel inventories at 17.18 million tonnes. Iron ore benchmark held at $95.16 per tonne with Dalian January contract falling 1.19% to RMB 707, reflecting the supply-demand mismatch in construction steel.
Read →
HRC prices consolidate as supply-demand gap widens despite cost support.
Social HRC inventory in 86 major Chinese warehouses rose 1.24% week-on-week to 4.4982 million tonnes. HRC production increased slightly while apparent demand weakened further in the off-season. Coke price hikes expected next week and iron ore consolidation provide cost support, but the most-traded HRC contract is forecast to trade in the 3,260-3,360 yuan range.
Read →
China iron ore port stocks fall to 105.4 million tonnes.
SMM data for 10 key ports show iron ore stocks at 105.40 million tonnes, down 1.55 million tonnes week-on-week. DCE most-active I2701 contract settled at RMB 707 per tonne, down 1.19%, with Qingdao spot prices slipping RMB 4-5 per tonne. Spot transactions stayed light as mills bought on an as-needed basis.
Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · US Treasury doubling long-dated bond buybacks to at least $4B per operation drives gold toward third straight weekly gain above $4,500/oz.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,591 |
+1.6%
+70 |
+7.3% |
+37.6% |
+157.5% |
| Silver |
69.76 |
+2.4%
+1.66 |
-0.5% |
+78.9% |
+195.0% |
| Platinum |
1,903 |
+3.5%
+64 |
-6.5% |
+40.4% |
+87.8% |
| Palladium |
1,366 |
+2.0%
+27 |
-16.2% |
+21.5% |
-42.7% |
Gold eyes third weekly gain on Treasury buyback boost.
Spot gold edged 0.4% higher to $4,537/oz on Friday after hitting its highest level since early June. The metal is up 3.6% for the week as a weaker dollar and US Treasury plans to double longer-dated bond buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation lower yields. Silver rose 1.3% to $68.93/oz, platinum climbed 2% to $1,865/oz and palladium gained 0.8% to $1,344/oz, with all heading for weekly advances.
Read →
HKEX gold futures smash delivery record.
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing reported record physical delivery of 145kg of gold in its US dollar-denominated gold futures on Wednesday, more than double the prior 63kg peak from 2018. The surge follows the July 6 relaunch with a trading fee waiver; average daily volume reached 9,974 contracts with $1.35 billion in value since then.
Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's July yttrium exports to US hit second-highest since 2025 controls amid Xi trade talks prep.
China's July yttrium exports to US hit second-highest since 2025 controls.
Solomon Cefai ·
Reuters · Thu, Aug 20, 10:52 AM ET
Chinese customs data showed 29 metric tons of yttrium oxide shipped to the US in July, the second-highest monthly volume since April 2025 export controls began. Yttrium is used in jet-engine alloys and high-temperature coatings for aerospace. The shipments precede Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned White House trade talks in September, while exports of yttrium and other strategic rare earths to Japan remain tightly restricted.
Read →
DOE to award $162M for nine critical minerals recovery pilots.
The Energy Department’s Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation will grant $162 million across nine projects to recover antimony, copper, scandium, rare-earth elements and other byproducts from industrial feedstocks. Four projects advance lab-scale tech to prototypes; five move prototypes toward pre-commercial demonstration. The funding supports domestic supply of defense- and energy-critical materials from waste streams.
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China adds MP Materials, USA Rare Earth to export control list.
China placed MP Materials and USA Rare Earth on its export-control list, barring Chinese suppliers from providing dual-use goods to the firms. The move targets US efforts to build rare-earth supply chains independent of Beijing. Both companies say they have largely eliminated reliance on Chinese equipment and materials.
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Shipping & Freight
What's moving · VLCC tanker rates surge to $250k+/day on Chinese crude demand, tight tonnage and Hormuz risks.
VLCC rates surge east and west of Suez on China crude buys and Hormuz squeeze
VLCC spot rates exploded with Atlantic fixtures at WS182.5-210 and US Gulf-China lump sums implying $252k-$260k/day TCE, far above Baltic assessments around $146k/day. Chinese crude import demand is pulling tonnage on long-haul voyages while the Hormuz crisis thins the effective fleet and concentrates ships in the Gulf. The surge spans Suezmax and Aframax segments too, marking one of the strongest tanker markets in years.
Read →
Drewry WCI jumps 4% to $4,526 as transpacific rates surge 9%
The Drewry WCI climbed 4% to $4,526 per 40ft, led by Shanghai-New York and Shanghai-Los Angeles rates both rising 9% to $9,507 and $6,802. Resilient transpacific demand and carrier capacity cuts via blank sailings (seven announced for next week) plus month-on-month capacity declines tightened space. Asia-Europe rates eased 1-2% amid elevated port congestion at Shanghai and Rotterdam.
Read →
Hormuz commodity transits hold at low single digits as talks stall
Kpler data showed nine commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, flat from the prior day and well below pre-crisis averages. Conflicting US and Iranian statements on reopening left owners avoiding the route despite some dark or Omani-side movements. Bab el-Mandeb traffic also slowed, sustaining rerouting pressure on tanker and dry-bulk flows.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU carbon allowances tick higher on late buying amid summer lull, while CCAs rise post-Q3 auction.
EU carbon allowances rise on late buying in quiet summer trade.
EU carbon allowances broke out of a narrow range Thursday to recover Wednesday's losses with modest trading volumes typical of the summer lull. The modest uptick reflects limited activity rather than strong fundamental drivers in the EU ETS. This keeps near-term prices supported but contained around recent levels near €82/t.
Read →
Political uncertainty curbs EUA rally to over €100/t next year.
An analyst said Europe's benchmark carbon price is set to rise 20% above €100/t next year on fundamentals, but uncertainty over the EU reform proposal is suppressing gains. The July Commission overhaul proposal introduced political risk that tempers bullish positioning. This dynamic weighs on longer-term EUA price expectations despite supportive supply tightness.
Read →
California carbon futures rise after Q3 auction amid regulatory wait.
California Carbon Allowance futures moved higher Thursday on limited activity following the Q3 auction. The market awaits results and an Office of Administrative Law decision on planned ETS updates. The mild gains occur as participants monitor regulatory developments in the linked California-Quebec market.
Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Trump says CFTC working to bring Hyperliquid onshore, sending HYPE surging 11-25%.
Trump says CFTC working to bring Hyperliquid to U.S.
President Trump stated at a White House meeting that CFTC Chairman Mike Selig is working to bring the decentralized perpetuals platform Hyperliquid into the U.S. in a fully compliant manner. The comments follow ongoing CFTC engagement with Hyperliquid on regulatory pathways and come amid broader administration pushes for the Clarity Act. Hyperliquid offers on-chain perps including commodities like gold and oil, directly tying the development to tokenized commodity markets.
Read →
Call-buying surges after Trump's Hyperliquid comments
Options volume on Hyperliquid Strategies surged nearly eight times the 30-day average after Trump's comments, with heavy call buying including large November and December 8-strike trades. HYPE token jumped 18% and shares of Hyperliquid Strategies rose 30%. The platform's commodity perps exposure amplifies the regulatory signal for on-chain commodity trading.
Read →
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · BHP's FY26 results show copper driving record earnings and 30% profit jump as miners prioritize growth projects.
Ecopetrol closes $1.2B deal for 51% of Brazil's Brava Energia.
Ecopetrol completed its $1.2 billion acquisition of a 51% controlling stake in Brazilian producer Brava Energia via tender offer and share purchase. Brava averaged 78,800 boed production in H1 2026 with 459 MMboe proved reserves. The deal expands Ecopetrol's upstream footprint in Brazil and adds immediate production and reserves at $8.40/boe for proved reserves.
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Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan, HF Sinclair greenlight $5B pipeline.
Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan and HF Sinclair took final investment decision on the $5 billion Western Gateway refined products pipeline system with 230,000 b/d initial capacity. Phillips 66 holds 49.9% and will build/operate the Borger-to-Phoenix segment; target completion is 2029 subject to permits. The project links Gulf Coast and Midcontinent supply to Arizona and California markets amid planned refinery closures.
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Venezuela signs oil deals with SLB and Hunt Oil.
Venezuela's oil minister announced contracts with SLB for reservoir studies and rig reactivation services plus a production participation agreement with Hunt Oil for the Caro and Carisito fields. The deals aim to attract investment and raise output from the country's underdeveloped reserves. Hunt's agreement marks one of the first concrete production pacts under the renewed push for foreign participation.
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ConocoPhillips names Andy O’Brien CEO, Ryan Lance retires.
ConocoPhillips announced Ryan Lance will retire as CEO after 14 years effective Sept. 1, with CFO Andy O’Brien succeeding him; Lance becomes executive chair and Konnie Haynes-Welsh becomes CFO. The transition follows strong quarterly results and asset sales. O’Brien inherits a portfolio focused on Alaska and Permian growth plus a $7 billion free cash flow commitment.
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Regulation & Government
What's moving · US escalates Iran sanctions threats as oil offers to China drop and prices rise above $86.
US vows toughest sanctions in history on Iran.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US will impose the toughest sanctions in history on Iran, pairing them with the existing blockade to pressure Tehran. Details will come Monday; the move aims to collapse the regime and reduce need for military action. China, Iran's top oil buyer, rejected unilateral sanctions.
Read →
Trump threatens isolation for Iran's trading partners.
President Trump warned of economic consequences for any country providing lifelines to Iran, targeting trading partners including China, UAE, Turkey, Iraq and others. China buys over 80% of Iran's shipped oil; new measures could pressure its teapot refiners and banks. Iraq faces challenges paying for Iranian natural gas under tighter sanctions.
Read →
US grants $500 million for domestic minerals projects.
Ernest Scheyder and Jarrett Renshaw ·
Reuters · Thu, Aug 20, 10:03 AM ET
The US Department of Energy awarded $500 million in grants to seven companies for domestic lithium, cobalt and battery projects. The funding supports Trump's goal of making the US the minerals superpower and reducing reliance on China. Projects target the battery ecosystem and critical minerals supply chain.
Read →
US ends summer blend gasoline rule early to cut prices.
The EPA will end the summer blend gasoline requirement early to increase supply and lower prices amid high fuel costs. The change allows more conventional gasoline blending sooner than usual. It responds to price spikes linked to the Iran conflict and aims to ease pressure on consumers.
Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Gold rallies past $4500 for third weekly gain
Traders highlight gold's strong weekly performance above $4500 an ounce amid broader precious metals strength. Silver up 6% this week and platinum hitting 9-week highs. Discussion centers on sustained buying interest and potential for further upside in the commodity.
Read →
Silver surges toward $70 on strong momentum
Precious metals traders react to silver breaking higher to $69.96, knocking on $70. Part of broader rally with gold and platinum. Discussions emphasize technical momentum and retail/institutional interest driving prices.
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Copper pulls back from records yet holds support
Metals traders note LME copper correcting from above $14,300 toward $14,000 on profit-taking. Tight inventories and structural demand from EVs, renewables and AI data centers keep outlook constructive despite near-term pullback.
Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Oil could surge above $100 for weeks
The analyst notes persistent geopolitical risks from the Iran situation keep supply concerns elevated, with Brent potentially testing or exceeding $100 amid limited near-term resolution. Focus is on how prolonged uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz flows sustains upward pressure despite any temporary deals. CNBC clip from the window emphasizes fundamentals over headlines.
Watch/Listen →
Diesel margins surge to $100/bbl amid strains
Refining crack spreads for diesel have hit extreme levels around $100/bbl due to constrained global supply from multiple conflict zones. Book and others note this drives consumer prices (e.g., $7/gal diesel in CA) and signals deeper physical tightness than headline crude suggests. Coverage emphasizes the macro fuel watch amid Russia/Ukraine and Hormuz issues.
Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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