Last price as of Tue, Aug 18, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Oil cracks continue to skyrocket with diesel refining margins now at record all time highs over $100 per barrel. We could see $250/barrel oil after all as a result of Hormuz. It will just show up in finished products, while crude stays below $100 due to the global SPR crude dumps. Also note on the crude oil term structure (forward curve) that Cal27 is rallying quite a lot yesterday/today following weeks of sideways movement, implying the oil market is now starting to price in that Hormuz will drag well into 2027. Platinum down $41 (-2.3%) on broad precious metals pullback amid surging global bond yields. Silver down $1.19 (-1.8%) on broad precious metals pullback amid surging global bond yields. Palladium down $22 (-1.6%) on long-term electric vehicle demand concerns. Cotton up $1.30 (+1.5%) on deteriorating US crop conditions in key states. Cocoa down $91 (-1.5%) on improved near-term West African supply and higher inventories. Tin (SHFE $/mt) down $842 (-1.5%).
Kicker: BofA pitches long gold as hedge vs dollar debasement, bond losses and asset inflation.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel as prospects dimmed for a near-term deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said he is in no hurry to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict and threatened to bomb Oman if it interferes. Read →
BHP reported a 9% rise in annual net profit to $9.83 billion, with underlying earnings up 30% to $13.20 billion. Copper became the miner's top profit driver for the first time, surpassing iron ore amid record prices. Read →
Brent crude futures climbed to $91.76 a barrel, extending gains for a third session. Hopes receded for reopening the Strait of Hormuz as Iran signaled a more offensive stance and the US ruled out extending the ceasefire. Read →
BHP said copper profits rose 48% to $18 billion, accounting for 54% of underlying earnings. The shift highlights booming demand from data centers and energy networks driving record copper prices. Read →
China recorded a 210,000 bpd crude surplus in July after processing 12.51 million bpd against 8.41 million bpd imports plus domestic output. Refiners drew far less from the estimated 1.2 billion barrel stockpile than expected amid Hormuz disruptions. Beijing eased fuel export curbs for August, positioning China to absorb restricted Middle East supply. Read →
The US diesel crack spread reached an all-time high of $102.20 a barrel Monday amid Iran and Ukraine supply disruptions coinciding with peak agricultural demand. The spread has set intraday records in five of the past six sessions. Fresh attacks on Middle Eastern refineries intensified pressure on distillate availability. Read →
Crude oil rose above $85 per barrel Tuesday for a third straight session after President Trump ruled out extending an interim US-Iran peace deal. Geopolitical tensions and limited Hormuz shipments outweighed any signs of increased oil flows. Prices have risen over 3% in the past month. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Prices slide on milder weather forecasts and robust production exceeding 111 bcfd.
Natural gas futures fell early Monday as a modest cooler shift in weekend weather data offset another hot 15-day forecast. Traders focused on ample supplies limiting any tightening from late-summer heat. The move highlights how strong production and storage keep pressure on prompt prices despite cooling demand expectations. Read →
Permian Basin Waha prices averaged just over $2/MMBtu so far in August after rising from $1.64 in July thanks to new pipeline projects adding takeaway. The expansion connects more supply to demand including Gulf Coast LNG. Quality constraints could emerge next as volumes grow. Read →
The Prince Rupert Gas Transmission project awarded its first onshore construction contract advancing the feedgas pipeline for the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG terminal in British Columbia. This step supports potential new Canadian LNG export capacity. US producers watch for any cross-border flow impacts. Read →
Western Midstream took a 7.5% stake in the Solitude Pipeline System JV that reached FID for two 48-inch lines from Permian Basin to Katy Texas. Initial capacity of 2.25 Bcf/d starts late 2029 with expansion potential supporting LNG exports and Gulf Coast demand. The move provides WES firm capacity for Delaware Basin residue takeaway. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises to €62/MWh as EU storage at 61% lags norms amid persistent Hormuz LNG disruptions.
Satellite imagery shows two LNG tankers, including LNG Enugu, conducting a ship-to-ship transfer near Sohar on the Gulf of Oman. Suppliers use the maneuver to move cargoes from inside the Persian Gulf despite ongoing tensions. The activity highlights efforts to sustain LNG flows to Europe and Asia despite disruptions at the key chokepoint. Read →
PJM's August 13 FERC filing creates a conditional framework allowing new 50 MW+ loads (primarily data centers) to interconnect before full capacity is online, provided unsupported demand is subject to priority curtailment. It establishes a registry for tracking loads and proposes changes to capacity auctions starting 2029/30 to exclude unsupported incremental load from procurement needs. The plan responds to 30 GW of projected data-center-driven demand growth through 2030 amid ongoing reliability shortfalls. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China's July coal output plunged 10.1% to 343M tons amid safety crackdowns, tightening global supply.
China's National Bureau of Statistics reported July coal production fell 10.1% year-on-year to 343.21 million metric tons, the lowest monthly figure since September 2021. Tighter safety oversight followed the May Liushenyu mine disaster in Shanxi that killed 82 people, leading to inspections, voluntary output cuts and forecasts of further declines. Reduced domestic supply supports thermal and metallurgical coal prices globally while pressuring importers like India. Read →
China's National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration released the 15th Five-Year Plan for Coal Industry Development targeting optimization by 2030. The plan prioritizes high-efficiency modern mines (87% of capacity), smart automation (75% target), coal supply bases and a plateau in consumption while keeping coal as an energy buffer. Coal power's share of generation fell below 50% for the first time in H1 2026 at 49.7%. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Pro Farmer Crop Tour and USDA Crop Progress flag lower corn/soy yields amid eastern flooding and western drought, lifting soybean futures above $12.
Scouts in Ohio reported average corn yields of 170-183 bu/acre with excess moisture and mud; South Dakota averaged 124.8 bu/acre with heat stress and pollination issues. Soybean futures jumped 20 cents to above $12 on wet-weather worries and China demand. The tour provides the first wide-scale field look at 2026 production potential across seven states. Read →
USDA's Aug. 17 Crop Progress report showed national corn good/excellent ratings at 60% (down from 61% prior week and 71% last year) and soybeans at 61% (down from 62% and 68%). Corn reached 29% dent stage ahead of average; soybeans 85% pod setting. Declines occurred despite development meeting or exceeding averages in major states. Read →
November soybean futures rose on increased U.S. demand expectations and China purchasing hopes. Pro Farmer Crop Tour highlighted smaller corn ears and pollination issues in some areas, shifting focus to crop quality. Wheat futures stayed mixed with Black Sea tensions adding support. Read →
November soybeans gained 4 cents to $11.96½ overnight on a streak of export sales and geopolitical tensions. December corn added 1 cent to $4.84¼. Speculators cut net long positions in both commodities per recent CFTC data. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME copper cash hits record high on acute nearby supply squeeze as stocks plunge and spreads widen sharply.
LME one-day copper contracts traded at a $75-per-ton premium to the next day, the widest since January when prices hit records. The flare-up reflects depleted LME stocks down nearly 50% since May as metal flows to US warehouses ahead of potential tariffs and tight Chinese smelter feedstock. This signals persistent near-term scarcity supporting prices despite softer China factory data. Read →
LME cash copper reached a record $14,830 per ton overnight while three-month copper rose 1.1% to $14,310. LME stocks have fallen 50% since May with flows to the US on tariff expectations; SHFE stocks are down over 80% since March. Zinc firmed 0.2%, aluminum rose 0.5%, tin added 0.5% and nickel gained 0.3%. Read →
SHFE copper dropped 1.19%, aluminum 0.35%, zinc 0.97% and tin 1.57% at midday close while nickel edged up 0.19%. LME copper fell 0.34% and zinc 0.59% with nickel up 0.42%. Domestic lithium carbonate futures declined 0.69% amid broader base metals pullback. Read →
BHP reported better-than-expected full-year earnings boosted by record copper prices that made the metal its largest earnings driver ahead of iron ore. The company declared its highest annual dividend in four years. Copper's structural demand from energy transition and data centers underpins the miner's shift in portfolio weighting. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Chinese July steel output tumbled 3.6% YoY to 76.93Mt, pressuring iron ore demand and keeping 62% Fe prices near $95/t.
July crude steel output fell 3.6% year-on-year to 76.93 million tonnes, the lowest monthly total in 2026, with Jan-Jul down 3.1% to 577Mt. Weak property and construction demand plus slower growth drove the drop. Lower output tightens mill margins and reduces near-term iron ore demand from blast furnaces. Read →
BHP reported full-year underlying profit of $13.20 billion, up 30%, beating estimates, with copper earnings of $18.19 billion surpassing iron ore's $14.53 billion. The company declared a $1.72 per share dividend, highest in four years. Record iron ore output supported earnings while China demand remains steady per the new CEO. Read →
BHP full-year profit rose nearly a third on higher copper and iron ore prices plus record output, beating forecasts under new CEO Brandon Craig. Copper now leads earnings ahead of iron ore. China iron ore demand stays steady amid the miner's shift toward copper growth. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rises on weaker dollar and fading September Fed hike odds, with spot near $4,424/oz.
Spot gold added 0.2% to $4,424.28/oz on Tuesday for a third straight session. Economists in a Reuters poll expect the Fed to hold rates through year-end; focus turns to Wednesday's July meeting minutes. Silver rose 0.9% while platinum edged higher. Read →
Gold's 9% August rebound to $4,400/oz signals renewed institutional and possible central-bank buying of large bars, per HSBC's James Steel. The move follows softer inflation data and lower oil prices; ETF inflows remain modest at $7 billion in early August per World Gold Council. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Neodymium holds flat at 955,000 CNY/t amid ongoing China dominance and US non-China supply push.
American Rare Earths and Novex signed an MoU on Aug 17 to convert separated rare earth oxides from Wyoming's Halleck Creek project into metals for permanent magnets. The deal targets NdPr metallization and potential samarium, dysprosium, and terbium output to close a key US supply-chain gap ahead of Jan 2026 defense magnet restrictions on Chinese-origin materials. It advances a full domestic mine-to-magnet chain with Ex-Im Bank interest up to $456 million. Read →
Domestic Chinese rare earth market prices rebounded slightly on Aug 17 after recent softness. Neodymium traded flat at 955,000 CNY/t, down nearly 5% month-over-month but up 38% year-over-year. The update reflects ongoing supply tightness in heavy rare earths and magnet precursors amid export licensing. Read →
Argus provides daily rare earth price assessments including neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium benchmarks plus critical minerals coverage. Focus remains on light and heavy elements used in magnets, EVs, and defense amid concentrated Chinese refining and magnet production exceeding 90% globally. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz uncertainty and VLCC rate spikes to $189k/day drive tanker strength amid BDI rebound to 2,878.
The Baltic Dry Index advanced 0.52% to 2,878 points on August 17. Capesize index rose 1.2% to 4,590 while supramax hit its highest since July 28 at 1,628; panamax fell 1% to 2,206. Gains reflect firmer iron ore and coal demand offsetting softer grain trades. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU carbon permits fell 0.26% to €81.58 on Aug 17 amid reform overhang.
EU carbon permits fell to 81.58 EUR on August 17, 2026, down 0.26% from the previous day. The move follows the European Commission's July reform proposal to slow the post-2030 cap reduction rate and extend free allowances for decarbonizing firms. Lower prices ease compliance costs for covered power and industrial emitters while signaling potential supply relief in the ETS. Read →
The European Commission proposed changes to the EU ETS allowing industries to emit CO2 longer and directing more revenue to clean tech investments in Europe. Reforms slow the annual cap decline to 3.7% in 2031-2035 and 1.7% thereafter while limiting international credits. The shift responds to competitiveness concerns from member states and could reduce near-term allowance scarcity. Read →
California and Quebec will conduct Joint Auction #48 on August 19, 2026. The sale covers current and future vintage allowances under the linked cap-and-invest program. Results will set the latest compliance price benchmark for covered entities in the state's emissions market. Read →
Nasdaq entered a definitive agreement to acquire LeveL Markets, the third-largest U.S. ATS with 2,500 institutional clients. It will create a new Digital Liquidity Networks division consolidating tokenization capabilities. The move advances Nasdaq's strategy for programmable, 24/7 markets spanning traditional and digital assets including tokenized equities and commodities. Read →
Suehyeon Lee · The Block · Mon, Aug 17, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Tokenized stocks now account for about 15% of the total RWA market, tripling from the start of the year per rwa.xyz data. Total market capitalization reached about $2.8 billion. Growth reflects regulatory progress and platform launches expanding on-chain equity exposure. Read →
The UK’s FCA has held talks with banks on rules allowing tokenized gold as collateral in wholesale markets, including for uncleared OTC derivatives. The push aims to digitize markets and defend London’s 70% share of global gold trading amid competition from Asia. An announcement on standards is expected within months. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · BHP's 30% profit jump on record copper earnings and ExxonMobil's $1.1B Rovuma LNG contracts drive mining and LNG deal flow.
ExxonMobil, on behalf of Area 4 partners, awarded $1.1 billion in pre-investment contracts for upstream equipment including subsea systems for the Rovuma LNG Phase 1 project. The awards advance the long-delayed development in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado toward final investment decision. Partners include ENH, CNPC, Eni, KOGAS and XRG. Read →
Divya Rajagopal and Melanie Burton · Reuters · Mon, Aug 17, 2026
NexGen Energy confirmed regular technical talks with BHP about its Rook I uranium project in Saskatchewan's Athabasca basin as it seeks $1 billion in financing. The company began construction last week with production targeted for 2030. BHP, already a uranium byproduct producer, has bought nearby land and seeks stable-country exposure. Read →
Chevron's 105-4X well in Block 0 encountered a more than 600-meter oil and gas condensate column with over 90 meters net pay in high-quality reservoir. The find supports tie-back development to existing facilities as part of Chevron's Sub-Saharan Africa exploration push. Block 0 is operated by Cabinda Gulf Oil Company with partners Sonangol, TotalEnergies and Azule Energy. Read →
WhiteWater and partners Devon Energy, MPLX, Diamondback Energy and Western Midstream reached final investment decision on two natural gas pipelines from the Permian Basin to Katy, Texas. Initial capacity targets 2.25 Bcf/d with service expected late 2029. The project addresses growing Permian production and midstream needs. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US-Iran Hormuz standoff and looming Canada tariffs drive commodity regulation and geopolitics.
President Trump invoked Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act to impose 50% duties starting Wednesday on nearly $20 billion of Canadian imports including wine, furniture, dairy, cement and hockey equipment. Negotiators remain far apart on autos and other issues ahead of the deadline, despite talks between Trump and Prime Minister Carney. The duties bypass USMCA preferences and risk job losses in affected sectors. Read →
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the administration will announce measures within days after meeting refiners Monday to increase fuel output and lower gasoline prices above $4.06 per gallon. US refineries run at record highs while Middle East capacity is curtailed. Wright noted sanctions and the Hormuz embargo give Trump latitude for a long game with Iran. Read →
President Trump and Prime Minister Carney spoke by phone as negotiators battle over auto tariffs ahead of Wednesday's 50% duties on Canadian goods. Talks seek to avert the tariffs on items like milk, beer and plywood while addressing broader barriers. Auto rules on content deductions remain a key sticking point. Read →
Negotiators discussed reducing tariffs on Canadian vehicles to 15% after value-content deductions, with a Wednesday deadline for broader 50% duties. The US seeks deductions only for US-specific content while Canada pushes for all North American content. Auto tariffs are a major sticking point alongside dairy and alcohol issues. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders on X highlight surging supertanker rates to $510,000/day as US-Iran tensions choke Strait of Hormuz shipping. Geopolitical risks from expired truce deadlines and potential blockades are boosting oil prices with Brent holding gains. This matters for energy markets as supply disruptions could sustain higher crude volatility. Read →
Commodity voices note long-term uranium at record $95.50/lb with spot also rising amid nuclear renaissance. China and Egypt advancing reactor builds fuel supply deficit talk. Traders see sustainable upside for uranium equities unlike prior cycles. Read →
Analysts and traders discuss BHP's historic shift where copper earnings beat iron ore, driven by high prices and production. LME copper near highs amid supply tightness and AI/grid demand. This signals structural bull case for copper amid producer struggles. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Jeff Currie says the illusion of abundance in product markets is likely well behind us at this point. He discusses the outlook for oil, the dislocation between crude prices and underlying products, and why he’s long gold. The appearance is on CNBC Squawk Box Europe. Watch/Listen →
Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America, says we need to see roughly ten times the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize oil prices and prevent escalation into the winter. He notes the SPR has fallen below 300 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, and expects further upside for oil prices if traffic does not increase significantly. Watch/Listen →
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, says oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain quite low amid the Iran conflict impacts. He discusses how the Strait plays into energy markets. Watch/Listen →
Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, joins Squawk Box to discuss the state of global energy markets and the impact of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire on oil prices, expecting exports back to normal by end of July. Watch/Listen →
Natasha Kaneva, head of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, discusses whether the world can live with 9% less oil in this podcast episode. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.