Last price as of Thu, Aug 13, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Platinum down $39 (-2.2%) on subdued US inflation report. Crude down $1.77 (-2.1%) on US crude inventories build. Palladium down $28 (-2.1%) on broad precious metals selloff. Silver down $0.91 (-1.4%) on precious metals technical reversal. Cotton down $0.93 (-1.1%). Copper down $0.06 (-1.0%) on weakened China demand.
Kicker: JPMorgan recommends long gold-silver ratio via buying gold futures versus selling silver futures on continued central bank buying support for gold.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The International Energy Agency now projects global oil consumption will fall by 1.6 million barrels a day in 2026, steeper than its prior 1 million bpd decline estimate. Middle East hostilities and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are derailing supply recovery while pushing up fuel prices and curbing demand, with sharp quarterly contractions expected through Q3. Read →
OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels a day from 780,000 previously, citing stalled Strait of Hormuz reopening talks and Red Sea risks. Next year’s growth outlook was revised higher to 2.16 million bpd. Read →
U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million in the week ended Aug. 7, far exceeding expectations of a draw. The build, driven by higher imports and lower exports, has raised doubts on U.S. demand strength and pressured WTI and Brent futures lower. Read →
Nymex natural gas futures climbed 1.5% to $2.809/mmBtu as forecasters added heat to the outlook, signaling stronger power-sector demand. The pattern points to smaller-than-usual inventory builds that could trim the storage surplus. Read →
Chilean state miner Codelco is abandoning plans to raise 2026 copper output to 1.34 million metric tons after multiple mine and project setbacks. The producer, which lost its top global supplier rank last year, now expects lower production than previously targeted. Read →
Brent fell 1% to $88.07/bbl and WTI dropped 1.2% to $82.31/bbl Thursday. OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 bpd while the IEA sees a 1.6 million bpd contraction this year. US commercial crude inventories surged 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million in the week to August 7. Read →
OPEC lowered its 2026 world oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 bpd, the fourth straight cut. It still projects growth unlike the IEA, which forecasts a contraction, reflecting differing views on Iran war impacts. OPEC raised its 2027 demand growth outlook. Read →
The IEA projects a 1.8 million bpd global supply shortfall this quarter, more than double prior estimates, due to Middle East disruptions from the Iran war. The 2026 deficit will be the widest in five years even as demand falls from higher prices. Global oil supply is forecast to decline 4.3 million bpd this year. Read →
Marathon, Phillips 66 and Valero earned a combined $12.6 billion in Q2, the highest since 2022, on surging refining margins from Hormuz disruptions. The trio returned $6.3 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. Analysts expect continued strong capital returns into 2027. Read →
The Trump administration's Gulf of Mexico lease sale attracted $82.7 million in high bids on 330,000 acres from 16 companies including BP, Chevron and Shell units. Bidding exceeded March's total but trailed December's $279 million auction. Offshore fields supply about 15% of US output. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · EIA cuts Henry Hub 3Q price forecast 50 cents to $2.87/MMBtu on record storage build and LNG maintenance.
EIA lowered its 3Q26 Henry Hub spot price forecast by 50 cents to $2.87/MMBtu. Record production and Freeport LNG maintenance are building the largest storage cushion heading into winter in a decade, with inventories seen at 3,985 Bcf by end-October. Lower prices expected to hold below $3 until November. Read →
EIA forecasts Lower 48 marketed production averaging 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 118.5 Bcf/d in 2025. Permian output rises to 29.2 Bcf/d and Haynesville to a 9% gain, driven by associated gas and Henry Hub prices. Henry Hub spot price expected to average $3.44/MMBtu for the year. Read →
August power burn exceeded every week of July despite record heat. LNG feedgas flows remain uneven amid maintenance, muting the impact of strong cooling demand. September NYMEX futures slipped modestly to around $2.75/MMBtu. Read →
Cheniere published its 2025 report celebrating 10 years since the first US Lower 48 LNG cargo. The milestone underscores sustained export growth from Gulf Coast facilities amid global demand. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF near €60/MWh on heat-driven demand and LNG supply tightness amid Norway issues; JKM at $21.24/MMBtu up 0.26%.
Spot LNG prices in southwest Europe rose $1.15 week-on-week to $20.30/MMBtu as TTF bulls supported values. Northeast Asia JKM held steady near $21/MMBtu. The move highlights how European hub strength is anchoring Atlantic basin LNG pricing. Read →
Heatwaves, Norwegian supply disruptions and tighter LNG availability pushed benchmark TTF above €62/MWh near July peaks. Argus noted even small balance shifts have outsized price effects in the current environment. The rally underscores power-sector sensitivity to weather and import constraints. Read →
Front-month TTF fell more than €3/MWh to around €56.81 as hopes rose for US-Iran de-escalation. The drop occurred despite a fresh attack on an LNG tanker. Diplomacy signals eased immediate supply-risk premiums. Read →
Kpler data showed three US-loaded LNG cargoes originally bound for Egypt's damaged Damietta terminal diverted to France and Spain. The shift adds immediate supply into northwest Europe. It demonstrates how regional disruptions redirect Atlantic cargoes toward TTF-linked markets. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM considers ride-through rules for data centers after 3.8 GW July 22 load trip in Virginia.
PJM is evaluating interconnection reliability requirements including ride-through standards for computational loads like data centers and crypto facilities. The review follows a July 22 transmission fault in Dominion's Northern Virginia zone that caused nearly 3,800 MW of data center load to transfer to onsite generation in two waves, creating voltage and frequency swings. PJM recovered within nine minutes; the event, the largest of its kind, highlights how large loads can now act as a reliability variable, prompting stakeholder process review ahead of broader NERC standards. Read →
PJM and Dominion are reviewing the July 22 event where a cleared 230 kV line fault triggered about 3,800 MW of Northern Virginia data center load to switch to backup generation. The sudden demand drop forced rapid generation reductions and reactive power deployment; PJM recovered its control error in nine minutes. The grid operator is assessing enhanced reliability requirements for voltage/frequency ride-through, protection coordination, telemetry, and reconnection behavior for existing and future large loads. Read →
ERCOT hit a record 91 GW peak load amid summer conditions and ongoing data center/AI demand growth. The report notes supply constraints will limit realized peak demand growth versus aggressive forecasts, with natural gas inventories at highs. Large-load interconnection activity remains a key driver of long-term grid planning in Texas. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures edge toward $130/t as oil prices rise and India July production hits 69.75 Mt.
SGX will reference Dow Jones' McCloskey Australian FOB Second-Tier Hard Coking Coal Index for swaps and futures contracts launching in September. The move expands SGX offerings to better reflect current trade flows in the metallurgical coal market. Read →
Port of Newcastle shipped 12.63 Mt of coal in July, down 16.5% from June and 7% from a year earlier. Sharp drops to China (41% MoM) and other Northeast Asian buyers reflect weak spot buying amid high Chinese utility stocks. Read →
India's coal-fired generation reached a record 114.7 TWh in July, up 13% year-on-year, as weak monsoon cut hydropower and boosted cooling demand. The surge underscores sustained thermal coal demand despite rising renewables. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA August Crop Production and WASDE reports lower U.S. corn and soybean yields while boosting acres and production, lifting corn futures over 12 cents.
USDA set 2026 U.S. corn yield at 180.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 from July and below the 182.4 analyst average. Soybean yield fell to 52.7 bushels per acre. Production rose to 16.013 billion bushels for corn and a record 4.519 billion for soybeans due to higher planted acres. December corn futures climbed 12 cents to $4.7250 per bushel; November soybeans gained 4.25 cents. Ending stocks tightened for corn. Read →
USDA increased 2026 corn planted acres by 1.4 million to 96.7 million and production to 16.013 billion bushels despite a 2.3-bushel yield cut. Soybean planted acres rose 1.4 million to 86.8 million for a record 4.519 billion bushel crop. Corn 2026-27 ending stocks fell to 1.653 billion bushels. Wheat production edged lower to 1.531 billion bushels with ending stocks at 717 million bushels. Read →
Russian strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and vessels cut grain exports 75% year-over-year in early August. Wheat harvest peaks while storage fills and corn harvest nears; domestic prices fell below production costs. Ukraine supplies 6% of world wheat and 11% of corn; farmers warn of sowing shortfalls and potential food issues in import-dependent regions without export revenue. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Australian governments commit A$2.5bn to keep Rio Tinto's Tomago aluminium smelter running to 2038 on renewables.
Federal and New South Wales governments will split A$2.5 billion over 10 years to secure operations at Australia's largest aluminium smelter, Tomago, owned by Rio Tinto and partners. Rio Tinto will invest at least A$1.1 billion alongside the funding for energy efficiency and a 10-year renewable power purchase agreement extending to 2038. The deal supports 1,000 jobs and decarbonisation of over 10% of NSW's electricity grid. Read →
Chilean miner Antofagasta reported 27% higher first-half EBITDA of $2.84 billion as elevated copper prices offset lower output and declared a doubled interim dividend. It lowered its full-year 2026 copper production target to 625,000-655,000 tonnes from 650,000-700,000 tonnes after a July shutdown at Los Pelambres mine due to extreme rains. The company cited ongoing supply constraints in a tight market. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China port iron ore stocks hit 175 million tonnes as of Aug 6, pressuring prices amid steady imports.
Vale and ABB signed a strategic alliance on August 11 to deploy AI, automation and digitalization across Vale's iron ore processing plants in Brazil. The partnership builds on a prior model plant in Itabira that achieved a 25% productivity gain and targets higher safety, output and energy efficiency. It supports Vale's position as a major seaborne supplier to China steel mills. Read →
Benchmark 62% Fe iron ore CFR China stood at $95.09 per tonne on August 12, up 0.53 or 0.56% from the prior day. The price is down 3.28% over the past month and 6.80% year-on-year. Steel benchmarks showed minor moves, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices tracked separately on Chinese exchanges. Read →
SGX IODEX iron ore futures referenced a prior-day settlement around $95.77 per tonne. Dalian and SGX contracts continue to price 62% Fe fines for China delivery amid ongoing port stock builds and miner shipments. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Bank of Korea's first gold ETF buy in 13 years and tame US CPI fuel gold consolidation near two-month high.
The Bank of Korea held 679,765 shares of SPDR Gold Shares worth about $250 million at end-Q2 2026 per SEC filing, its first gold-linked position since 2013 and none three months prior. This marks South Korea's central bank resuming exposure to gold prices amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty, joining broader central bank diversification trends without immediate physical bullion expansion. Read →
Pablo Sinha and Swati Verma · Reuters · Thu, Aug 13, 3:59 AM ET
Spot gold was little changed at $4,408.55/oz after jumping 1% to its highest since June 5, following July CPI data showing 3.4% YoY rise that cooled September Fed rate-hike odds to 40%. Attention turns to upcoming PPI data; silver gained 0.3% to $65.47/oz while platinum and palladium eased. Read →
Filing shows Bank of Korea took a $250 million position in SPDR Gold Shares, its first gold-linked investment since 2013, providing price exposure without growing physical reserves. The move aligns with global central banks' shift toward gold amid uncertainty and diversification needs. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China tightens rules-based critical mineral export oversight on rare earths.
China is shifting to more comprehensive, rules-based management of critical mineral exports including rare earths, extending controls to technologies, equipment and the full supply chain. The Ministry of Commerce requires overseas importers to obtain dual-use export licenses. July exports totaled 4,224 tons with first-seven-months volume down 10% year-on-year, prompting overseas buyers to adjust sourcing while Beijing stresses approvals for legitimate civilian needs. Read →
ARECOMS chairman Patrick Mpoyi Luabeya said the DRC will maintain 2026-2027 cobalt export quotas but may reduce them if supply-demand imbalance persists or worsens. The regulator plans to keep the current limits, which cap annual exports at 96,600 tonnes including a strategic reserve. This follows the quota system's introduction to rebalance the market after prior oversupply. Read →
Lynas Rare Earths reached a binding letter of intent for a US$96 million, four-year supply deal with the U.S. Defense Department for light and heavy rare-earth oxides. The agreement includes a $110/kg floor price for NdPr oxide. It advances U.S. efforts to secure non-Chinese supply for defense applications amid ongoing China dominance in rare earth refining and magnets. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Saudi oil rerouting via SUMED pipeline and dark voyages amid Houthi Red Sea threats drives tanker and chokepoint activity.
All recent Yanbu crude loadings occurred without AIS signals as tankers avoid Houthi attacks; Vortexa data shows Sidi Kerir loadings hit a record 2.17 million bpd last week, up 50% week-over-week with 90% Saudi crude. Ship-tracking firms report widely divergent export estimates due to dark voyages. This obscures Saudi flows, raises war-risk insurance costs, and shifts more VLCC loadings north via SUMED pipeline or Suez Canal. Read →
Exports from Egypt's Sidi Kerir port more than doubled to about 2.3 million bpd in August versus 1 million bpd last month, mostly Saudi crude routed via the SUMED pipeline. Yanbu exports through Bab el-Mandeb fell nearly 90% week-over-week per Kpler data. Longer Cape of Good Hope voyages to Asia increase costs and shift cargoes toward Europe and the US. Read →
SK Shipping will receive 16 LNG vessels and long-term contracts from H-Line in exchange for 12 tankers, contracts and about $300 million cash. The deal makes SK Shipping Asia's largest LNG carrier operator and the world's third-largest. H-Line will focus on tankers and bulk shipping. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs trade near 82 euros as analysts weigh summer lull against auction strength and ongoing reform debate.
European Union Allowances ended Tuesday only modestly higher after briefly testing recent highs following a strong auction. Traders question whether low conviction or the summer holiday lull is capping upside momentum in the benchmark contract. Read →
Germany's federal cabinet approved revisions to the national Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) to keep the carbon price stable through 2027. The move addresses the one-year delay of EU ETS 2 for buildings and transport until 2028, maintaining the existing price corridor. Read →
The US ambassador to the EU published an opinion piece in the Financial Times criticizing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as a tariff. The critique highlights perceived double standards in EU climate trade policy amid ongoing CBAM implementation. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · SEC readies Friday vote on crypto offering rules and tokenized-stock innovation exemption as Clarity Act stalls.
The SEC will hold an open meeting Friday at 10 a.m. ET to consider proposing a tailored offering regime for certain crypto investment contracts. It is also preparing to release details of an innovation exemption allowing tokenized versions of securities to trade 24/7 on blockchains with near-instant settlement. The moves come as the Senate delays a vote on the CLARITY Act until mid-September. Read →
Metals.io has issued tokens for uranium, nickel and cobalt that holders can redeem for physical metal with proper approvals. The platform brings tokenized physical commodities to blockchain rails, expanding access beyond traditional metals markets. Read →
Plume, an RWA-focused blockchain, joined the DTCC working group alongside Schwab, Nasdaq and others to shape tokenized securities standards. It will contribute compliance expertise via its SEC-registered transfer agent and on-chain security tools ahead of the DTC tokenization service launch. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Origin Energy beats estimates as energy markets earnings jump 21% offsetting gas unit weakness.
Shruti Agarwal · Reuters · Thu, Aug 13, 2:11 AM ET
Australia's Origin Energy reported full-year underlying profit of A$1.16 billion, slightly above the A$1.14 billion consensus, with energy markets segment earnings rising 21% to A$1.70 billion from higher electricity prices and volumes. Integrated gas earnings fell 26% due to lower LNG production and prices at the APLNG project. The company declared a final dividend of 30 Australian cents per share. Read →
Titan Mining reported Q2 revenue of $25.7 million, up 57% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA of $9.6 million, up 272%, driven by higher zinc production of 17.5 million pounds and stronger prices. Net income reached $5.4 million as cash costs fell and the company advanced its Kilbourne graphite project with new customer agreements. Read →
WhiteHawk Minerals signed nine natural gas mineral and royalty acquisitions totaling $111.8 million in Appalachia and Haynesville since its June IPO. Q2 net production rose 57% to 70 MMcfe/d with revenue of $29.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $20.7 million; the company initiated a $0.50 quarterly dividend. Read →
Pan American Silver posted Q2 revenue of $1.124 billion and net earnings of $305 million, or $0.72 per share, with attributable revenue of $1.3 billion including its Juanicipio stake. Attributable silver production reached 6.5 million ounces at the high end of guidance amid strong metal prices. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US senators press Rubio and Bessent over 17-month pause in Russia sanctions evasion enforcement.
Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Christopher Coons sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questioning the 17-month pause in routine sanctions targeting entities helping Russia evade existing restrictions. The last major US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil occurred in October 2025. The pause comes despite stalled peace talks with Ukraine and could reduce pressure on Russian energy exports. Read →
Northern Cables and other Canadian manufacturers supplying the US market are considering relocating production south ahead of 50% tariffs scheduled for August 19 on goods including electric cable. The tariffs, imposed under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act, target about $20 billion in Canadian imports and exempt energy and certain critical minerals. Relocation aims to avoid duties that threaten business viability for firms with heavy US exposure. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders celebrate gold breaking $4,500/oz futures with excitement and memes, noting recent pullbacks but long-term bullish sentiment tied to dollar weakness and uncertainty. Discussions highlight buying dips for long-term holds and skepticism about short-term sustainability. Read →
Analysts note gold consolidating in $4,360-$4,445 range after touching $4,450, with support at $4,355-$4,365 holding for bullish structure. Traders watch for rebound to $4,382 or drop to $4,321 if support breaks. Read →
Active discussion in r/oil on current oil prices, stocks, and market moves with hundreds of comments. Traders share opinions on trends amid broader energy volatility. Read →
Traders discuss uranium attempting breakout from 6-month consolidation, linked to expensive energy and nuclear demand. Price around $87/lb with ongoing interest in stocks. Read →
Traders react to sharp drop erasing $720 billion from gold and silver markets in 8 hours, highlighting volatility and profit-taking after recent highs. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Daan Struyven discussed latest Iran war negotiations and impacts on oil/equity markets. He noted risks to Goldman’s Brent base case are skewed to the upside amid ongoing Hormuz tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Watch/Listen →
Bloomberg report covered crude futures gains amid Strait of Hormuz deadlock and shipping threats. It noted inflation concerns building as oil prices climb on Middle East geopolitical tensions. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.