Last price as of Wed, Aug 12, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Silver up $1.95 (+3.0%) on safe-haven buying and industrial demand amid Middle East tensions and softer dollar. Wheat up $19 (+3.0%) on August USDA WASDE report tightening global supply expectations from adverse US weather and reduced Black Sea exports. Platinum up $30 (+1.7%) on weaker-than-expected US jobs data lowering Fed tightening odds and ongoing supply deficits. Palladium up $16 (+1.2%) on weaker-than-expected US jobs data lowering Fed tightening odds and auto demand support. Dutch TTF up $0.67 (+1.1%) on uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz shipping normalization amid Middle East tensions. Gold up $42 (+0.9%) on weaker-than-expected US jobs data lowering Fed rate hike odds and safe-haven flows ahead of CPI.
Kicker: JPMorgan recommends long silver vs gold spread on industrial demand outperformance and narrowing gold-silver ratio.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Giulia Petroni and Adam Whittaker · Wall Street Journal · Tue, Aug 11, 4:27 AM ET
Disruptions from the Iran war, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy sites and China’s fuel export curbs have removed millions of barrels of refined products from global markets. Refining margins for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have surged as customers scramble for alternative supplies. Read →
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is offering to shuttle Basrah and other Iraqi crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz using dark-transit tactics to reach Asian refiners. The move highlights ongoing risks to direct tanker traffic amid Middle East tensions. Read →
The International Energy Agency lowered its global oil supply forecast for 2026 by 4.3 million barrels per day due to persistent Middle East hostilities and delays reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Total supply is now expected at 102.02 million bpd, deepening the market deficit. Read →
Phillips 66 and partners sanctioned the $5 billion Western Gateway Pipeline to move 230,000 barrels a day of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from Texas to Arizona and California. The project aims to ease supply shortages after recent refinery closures and high pump prices in the state. Read →
Ukraine has paused drone strikes on oil tankers at Russia’s Novorossiysk port following a request from U.S. Vice President JD Vance, the Financial Times reported. The U.S. cited concerns over destabilizing oil markets and impacts on Western firms shipping Kazakh crude via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Read →
U.S. crude rose 0.61% to $83.71 a barrel and Brent to $89.46 per barrel on Wednesday, extending a sixth straight daily gain after settling more than $1 higher Tuesday. Gains follow fading prospects for a Strait of Hormuz reopening deal amid hardening U.S.-Iran positions. The move adds to supply-risk premium in global crude benchmarks. Read →
Charles Kennedy · Oilprice.com · Tue, Aug 11, 9:30 AM ET
ADNOC offered Upper Zakum, Umm Lulu and Das grades for October-November loading in its latest spot tender. The UAE, which exited OPEC in May, has sold over 90 million barrels via spot tenders since early June using workarounds around Hormuz. Output reached a record 4.1 million bpd in June despite shipping risks. Read →
Julianne Geiger · Oilprice.com · Tue, Aug 11, 4:47 PM ET
API data showed U.S. crude stocks rose 9.072 million barrels in the week ending August 7 versus an expected 500,000-barrel draw. The build followed a 2.69 million barrel increase the prior week and stemmed partly from higher imports relative to exports. Cushing stocks also rose amid ongoing global inventory draws. Read →
Oilprice.com · Tue, Aug 11 (recent overnight report)
Ukraine said it struck Tatneft’s Taneco refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, causing a fire. The attack killed at least 13 people including a child and wounded dozens. It forms part of Kyiv’s campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure far from the front lines. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Natural gas futures hold near $2.79 as summer heat supports power demand while LNG feedgas recovers and storage builds remain elevated.
NYMEX natural gas futures held near $2.794/MMBtu after Monday's advance driven by a hotter near-term weather forecast. Stronger expected consumption and recovering LNG feedgas demand offset rising domestic production. Lingering southern heat should support power-sector burn into August. Read →
Venture Global reported Q2 revenue of $4.58 billion, missing expectations, with adjusted core profit also slightly below estimates. Stronger volumes from Plaquemines were offset by lower prices at Calcasieu Pass and higher costs. The company raised its full-year 2026 core profit guidance for the second straight quarter. Read →
Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan and HF Sinclair finalized a joint venture and made final investment decision on the $5 billion Western Gateway refined products pipeline system. The project will move Midwest and Gulf Coast supplies to Arizona and California markets with a 2029 target in-service. It strengthens long-term fuel supply reliability and flexibility in the West. Read →
Venture Global exported 127 LNG cargos and sold 466.4 TBtu in Q2 2026, up 42% year-over-year, with revenue rising 48% to $4.6 billion. Plaquemines commissioning progress drove higher volumes while the company raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.7, 9.1 billion. It also executed new offtake agreements and refinanced debt for cost savings. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises on low EU storage at 57% full amid LNG supply constraints from Middle East tensions.
Uniper CEO Michael Lewis stated Germany can still reach its 70% gas storage target by November, though market prices must incentivize filling. This comes as EU storage sits around 57% full, below seasonal norms, pressuring TTF prices higher amid ongoing refill needs. The comments highlight storage as a key driver for European gas benchmarks. Read →
EU natural gas inventories lag historical levels near summer's end due to persistent supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. TTF prices gain support from the weak storage position, which sits well below averages and raises winter supply risks. The outlook points to tighter European gas fundamentals boosting the benchmark. Read →
Gazprom's TurkStream flows to Europe rebounded 35% month-on-month to 45.7 mcm/d as EU storage hit 56.9% full, the lowest late-July level since 2021. Persistent Middle East tensions block Qatari LNG, cutting imports and lifting TTF 19%. Russian pipeline gas remains critical for Europe despite phase-out plans, buffering low stocks. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM reviews standards after 3,800 MW data-center load trip in Dominion zone triggers voltage/frequency swings.
On July 22 a mechanical fault on a 230 kV line in Northern Virginia caused 3,800 MW of computational loads (data centers) to unexpectedly disconnect and switch to backup generation, the largest such event in PJM history. This produced sharp voltage and frequency spikes that PJM operators corrected within minutes, but it exposed ride-through vulnerabilities on the load side. PJM and Dominion are now evaluating enhanced interconnection reliability requirements and ride-through standards for large computational loads ahead of FERC/ NERC rulemaking. Read →
ERCOT’s real-time dashboard showed current demand around 86,700 MW with operating reserves above 18,000 MW and normal grid conditions as of August 11. Day-ahead and real-time hub prices traded in the low-to-mid $20s, $40s/MWh range. The operator continues to manage a massive interconnection queue dominated by data centers, with forecasts pointing to demand roughly doubling by 2032. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China coal imports hit 2026 high in July then expected to taper, lifting Newcastle prices near $129-136/t.
China's NDRC and NEA released the 15th Five-Year Plan for coal development targeting over 100 million metric tons of annual production reserve capacity by 2030. Large modern mines are to reach 87% of total capacity and intelligent mines 75%. The plan reinforces coal's role as a baseline energy security guarantor while advancing safety, green tech and supply optimization. Read →
India's government introduced legislation curbing state powers to tax minerals and set mining conditions to create uniform national rules. The move aims to boost predictability and investment in the mining sector including coal. Stronger July domestic coal output of 69.75 million tons already signals reduced import needs. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA August WASDE and Crop Production reports due at noon ET today set to update 2026/27 corn, soybean and wheat yields and stocks amid below-trend expectations.
Private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for 2026/27 delivery to China plus 180,000 MT soybean cake and meal to the Philippines. The announcement adds to recent China purchases and supports new-crop soybean demand ahead of the August USDA report. Read →
Reuters poll shows expected corn yield at 182.4 bu/acre, 0.6 bu below July, with soybean yield at 52.9 bu/acre. Good-to-excellent ratings sit 11% below last year for corn and 6% lower for soybeans, while demand strength and acreage adjustments remain key variables for the Aug. 12 report. Read →
The reports at 11 a.m. CDT Wednesday will deliver the first NASS-based yield estimates for the 2026/27 corn and soybean crops. Analysts note Ukraine corn export cuts and strong old-crop demand as factors that could tighten U.S. balance sheets. Read →
Private exporters reported 238,000 MT of 2026/27 soybeans sold to China in the week ending Aug. 7, continuing a string of purchases. Mexico took 286k MT corn across marketing years, underscoring robust export flows into the key August supply-demand update. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME copper stocks fell for a 40th straight day, longest drawdown streak since 2014, on supply tightness and tariff-driven flows.
DRC banned copper and cobalt concentrate exports last week, pushing LME three-month copper to a six-month high of $14,369.50 per ton and cash price to a record $14,453.60 per ton. The move tightens an already stressed concentrate market with negative smelter fees but has no material impact on global balances as Congo exports mostly refined metal and prior bans included waivers. LME stocks have dropped sharply to 214,550 tons with tightening cash-to-three-month spreads at $171 per ton, the widest since October. Read →
LME aluminum futures rose 1.7% to $3,373 per ton while copper gained 0.4% to $14,215 per ton after hitting an all-time high on Monday. COMEX copper advanced 0.63% to $6.65 per pound. Moves reflect ongoing physical market tightness amid energy transition demand. Read →
LME copper futures closed virtually unchanged at $14,156.50 per tonne. Aluminum rose 1.4% to $3,364 per tonne. Prices reflect mixed macro signals with supply constraints supporting the complex. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · DCE iron ore futures rebound 1.26% to 721.5 yuan/t on futures gains and easing blast-furnace maintenance.
DCE main iron ore contract I2609 closed up 1.26% at 721.5 yuan per tonne. Qingdao port spot prices rose 3-6 yuan/tonne amid active trader quotes and modest steel mill buying. Reduced blast furnace maintenance next week supports modest demand expectations for the ferrous complex. Read →
Vale’s New York-listed ADRs dropped 3.83% to US$14.32 amid a broad Brazilian market sell-off that sent the Ibovespa down 2.50%. The move pressured iron ore proxies as traders reacted to the steep single-session decline in the major Brazilian miner. Read →
Imported iron ore inventories at 47 major Chinese ports reached 175 million tonnes as of August 6, up 1Mt or 0.6% week-on-week and 22.7% year-on-year. Arrivals surged 20% to 32Mt in the prior week, lifting vessels waiting to discharge from 121 to 126. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Geopolitical tensions and pre-CPI positioning lift gold 0.8% to $4,400/oz overnight.
World Gold Council data show central banks purchased a net 288.9 tonnes in Q2 2026, up 62% YoY, while gold posted its steepest quarterly decline since 2013. PBOC added 20 tonnes in July for its 21st straight month of buying. ETF flows turned mixed with SPDR Gold Trust seeing $637m inflows on Aug 7. Read →
OCBC expanded its mobile app to let mass retail customers buy and sell platinum and palladium bullion from 0.01 ounces, priced around S$23 and S$18 respectively. The move follows strong uptake of its existing gold and silver digital offerings, which grew 2.5x YoY in 2025. It broadens accessible PGM investment options in Singapore. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's heavy rare earth export controls split ex-China prices for dysprosium, terbium and yttrium from domestic levels.
China's export controls on yttrium, dysprosium and terbium have created a two-tier market with tighter supply and sharply higher prices outside China for defense, aerospace and industrial buyers. The controls separate licensed and non-licensed buyers, increasing supply-chain risks for permanent-magnet users. This bifurcation underscores the need for diversified non-Chinese heavy rare earth supply. Read →
S&P Global published draft market reports with structural cost benchmarks for antimony, gallium, germanium, NdPr oxide and tungsten to improve transparency. The reports highlight China's dominance, 99% of gallium, 84% of NdPr, 79% of tungsten, and support U.S. efforts for border-adjusted price floors under a proposed Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals. Reliable benchmarks aim to attract private investment in allied supply chains. Read →
President Trump announced over $2 billion in new U.S. government investments including $150 million for Niron Magnetics rare earth-free magnets and $400 million for Sunrise Energy Metals scandium mine plus funding for graphite, boron and other projects. The moves target domestic and allied production of permanent-magnet materials and battery inputs to reduce reliance on China. Additional workforce investments total over $180 million. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz traffic hits one-week low of eight vessels as owners avoid waterway amid Iran hostilities.
Kpler data showed eight vessels tracked in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, below the 10-day average of 12 and far below the pre-closure 130-140 daily transits. Seven entered via the Iranian route while one coal carrier exited; LSEG reported 11 transits. Reduced flows tighten VLCC and product tanker availability for Middle East crude and gas exports. Read →
Satellite imagery captured 12 ship-to-ship oil transfers spanning more than 100 km off Oman and UAE coasts on Monday. The activity shows some tankers continue dark transits despite attacks, sustaining limited crude flows from the Gulf. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs rise to 83.37 EUR as energy prices and geopolitics lift prices near 6-month highs.
A think tank analysis finds the European Commission's July 2026 ETS reform proposal could inject over 1.9 billion extra allowances into the market by 2040 if emissions track the bloc's 2040 target. The changes slow the linear reduction factor and adjust free allocation and the Market Stability Reserve. This potential surplus expansion could ease upward pressure on EUA prices in the longer term. Read →
European carbon allowances ended Tuesday modestly higher after testing recent highs but surrendered gains as market participation stayed light during the summer holiday period. An auction provided brief support but conviction remained low. The session highlights subdued near-term trading volumes in the EU ETS despite the broader price uptrend. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid HIP-3 RWA perps hit $4B open interest over weekend as UK FCA advances tokenized gold collateral rules.
Decentralized Dog · CoinMarketCap · Tue, Aug 11, 2026
Tether is shutting down its Alloy platform and gold-backed aUSDT stablecoin, giving holders until Sept. 17 to redeem for XAUT collateral. The product launched in 2024 with a peak market cap near $1.2 million but saw limited adoption. Tether is redirecting resources to higher-demand areas including its larger XAUT tokenized-gold token, now backed by over 22,000 kilograms of physical gold. Read →
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is discussing standards with major banks for using tokenized gold as collateral in wholesale markets and uncleared OTC derivatives. London handles roughly 70% of global gold trading and seeks to maintain its position through clearer rules rather than new retail products. Sixteen firms are already testing tokenized assets in the FCA’s Digital Securities Sandbox. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · LNG exporter Venture Global raises 2026 EBITDA guidance to $8.7-9.1B despite missing Q2 estimates.
YPF increased its 2026 investment plan to up to $6.2 billion from $5.8 billion. CEO Horacio Marin cited higher oil prices and strong Vaca Muerta shale performance for lifting EBITDA guidance to $8 billion from $6 billion. Q2 net profit reached $1.21 billion. Read →
Uniper CEO Michael Lewis said European gas prices will stay at €50-60/MWh while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The outlook followed Uniper's first-half results and reflects Iran-related supply risks and low storage levels. Lewis called the prices damaging for customers and industry. Read →
AGL Energy forecast stronger-than-expected 2027 earnings, citing lower operating costs and growth in its battery portfolio offsetting softer wholesale power prices. The Australian power producer released full-year FY26 results on August 12. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US Senate Russia sanctions bill and CFTC emergency order on Kalshi drive commodity regulatory focus.
White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro stated President Trump and PM Modi will resolve US tariff threats on India's Russian oil purchases. The comments follow the US Senate's passage of a bill authorizing up to 100% tariffs on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas. The measure targets nations whose purchases fund Russia's war efforts, directly pressuring major importers like India and China on crude and natural gas flows. Read →
Peter Navarro downplayed tensions, noting the leaders' strong relationship will handle the issue stemming from Senate legislation. The bipartisan Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 passed 86-11 and grants the president authority for secondary tariffs up to 100% on imports from top Russian energy buyers. It also adds sanctions on Russian entities and tankers to curb war funding via oil and gas revenues. Read →
The CFTC exercised emergency authority under the Commodity Exchange Act after New York Attorney General Letitia James sued KalshiEX, LLC seeking to halt event contracts nationwide and $36 billion in damages. The order directs the exchange to continue operating per core principles amid the state court challenge. Chairman Michael S. Selig emphasized federal preemption over state gaming laws for interstate derivatives markets. Read →
The CFTC invoked emergency powers to keep Kalshi serving customers despite New York's lawsuit aiming to shut down its event contract offerings. The federal regulator cited the need to maintain uniform national derivatives markets and public confidence in price discovery. The action follows Kalshi's notification of a market emergency tied to the state complaint filed July 31. Read →
The Democratic Republic of Congo banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates effective immediately per a June 29 order by three ministers. The policy aims to force domestic processing and retain more value from its mineral resources as the world's top cobalt producer and No. 2 copper supplier. One-year waivers may apply in strategic cases, tightening supply for global battery and electronics markets. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders highlight Nomura launching physical gold trading and custody in Singapore for rich clients, calling gold a cornerstone of wealth management. Retail inflows into GLD are the strongest since March after months of selling. Bullish sentiment builds with price targets at $4435-$4700 as CPI outlook supports moves. Read →
Post argues market applies short-term model to long-term fundamentals, with supply destruction in Russia and Middle East plus reserve draws supporting higher prices. Comments note refinery damage, geopolitical risks, and potential for mid-80s crude despite current weakness. Traders see over-correction and restocking needs ahead. Read →
Traders note copper sweeping liquidity and turning bullish as a bull market metric. LME stocks draw for 40+ days signals physical tightness. Supply issues from Myanmar tin and Middle East bottlenecks plus EV/robotics demand cited as drivers for alloy and refined prices. Read →
Uranium investor reports moving 70% out of sector into AI, data centers, and quantum after over a year, expressing regret at not exiting fully. Still holds some explorers like GLO and DML. Reflects broader trader frustration with uranium performance vs other themes. Read →
Theme highlighted as overlooked with charts showing 4-year downtrend bottoming and turning up. First inning of multi-year move expected. Links to energy prices pressuring inputs and weather risks in US crops adding to bullish setup for fertilizers and softs. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, discussed how ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and uncertainty around a Strait of Hormuz deal are supporting higher oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. She highlighted risks from supply disruptions in refined products. Watch/Listen →
Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen discussed spiking oil and refined product markets driven by escalating supply uncertainties from the Middle East, alongside factors like gold/silver resurgence and macro pressures ahead of US CPI. The episode covers ongoing disruptions and market implications. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.