Last price as of Mon, Aug 10, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Dutch TTF up $2.62 (+4.7%) on persistent Strait of Hormuz LNG supply disruptions tightening European balances. Nat Gas up $0.098 (+3.7%) on ongoing Strait of Hormuz LNG supply shock and above-normal US heat boosting demand. Cocoa down $116 (-2.0%). Wheat up $11 (+1.7%) on Black Sea shipping risks and European drought/heat concerns. Coffee down $4.7 (-1.5%) on improved Brazilian 2026/27 harvest outlook pointing to surplus. Silver up $0.90 (+1.4%) on sustained industrial demand and supply deficits.
Kicker: BofA pitches long TTF vs short US natgas calendar spread on diverging European vs US supply tightness.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
UAE's Adnoc Gas will invest over $8 billion to expand production capacity following the country's departure from OPEC. The move frees the firm from cartel quotas amid rising demand from data centers and population growth. Read →
Adnoc Gas is exploring a new LNG export facility on the UAE east coast to avoid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The plan follows severe shipping issues from the Iran conflict. Read →
ADNOC Gas reported Q2 net income of $665 million, down 52% year-over-year due to Strait of Hormuz closure. Profit beat guidance, and the firm plans $28 billion in investments through 2030. Read →
Oil prices rose in Asian trade as doubts grew over quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran demanded U.S. concessions including sanctions relief before allowing passage of one-fifth of global oil shipments. Read →
Landowners in the Permian Basin are capitalizing on local opposition to new data centers by leasing to oil-and-gas operators. The shift comes as AI-driven data-center demand surges nationwide. Read →
Brent rose 1% to $84.39/bbl and WTI gained 0.75% to $78.77/bbl Monday. Iran said a shipping-lanes deal with Oman is in final stages but the U.S. must meet additional conditions first, keeping Hormuz flows restricted. The benchmarks had dropped more than 7% last week on earlier reopening hopes. Read →
Saudi energy ministry said a fire at Aramco’s Jazan refinery was extinguished with no injuries reported. Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for the strike on the Red Sea facility. The incident adds to supply risks in the Gulf region. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natural gas futures rise over 3% to $2.75/MMBtu on stronger LNG feedgas flows and power demand.
Natural gas futures recovered Friday after a storage-driven decline. Stronger LNG feedgas flows and elevated power-sector demand provided support, even as cooler weather forecasts and ample inventories limited upside. The move highlights LNG export pull and summer power burn as key near-term drivers. Read →
US natural gas prices rose to 2.75 USD/MMBtu, up 3.40% on the day. Recent EIA data showed a 33 Bcf storage injection for the week ended July 31, above the 23 Bcf five-year average, with production near record highs around 110.6 Bcf/d. LNG feedgas flows averaged 16.9 Bcf/d so far in August, down from July, though weather-driven power demand offers support. Read →
Working gas in storage reached 3,117 Bcf after a 33 Bcf net injection. This exceeded the five-year average of 23 Bcf and last year’s 13 Bcf. Inventories stand 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average, underscoring robust supply amid high production. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF surges 2% to €56.7/MWh on low EU storage at 57% (18-year low) and Hormuz uncertainty.
Elena Mazneva · Bloomberg · Mon, Aug 3, 6:29 AM ET
EU gas storage hit 57.1% full at the start of August, the lowest for the date in records back to 2009. Middle East conflict raised prices and stalled injections, leaving a thin buffer ahead of winter. High costs made storage uneconomical, complicating efforts to meet the relaxed 80% target. Read →
Power
What's moving · ERCOT pauses data center queue audit amid 474 GW backlog, 90% AI-driven, as PJM capacity prices stay capped near $325/MW-day.
Guest Author (Cindy Feng via Ziven.io) · Bitcoin.com News · Mon, Aug 10, 2026
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott ordered a comprehensive audit of data center projects in ERCOT's interconnection queue on Aug. 3, prompting ERCOT to delay scheduled Batch Zero classification notices from Aug. 7 and seek a good-cause exception at the Aug. 20 PUCT meeting. The queue holds roughly 474 GW of requests, about 90% from data centers, more than five times the state's record peak demand of 91 GW. The pause affects pending projects' timelines and visibility for 2027 but spares already-approved capacity and fully off-grid on-site generation setups. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures hover near $128/t amid soft Indian imports and rising domestic supply.
Global thermal coal benchmarks showed mixed moves last week as API2 futures fluctuated on European winter buying while API4 and Asian prices weakened. Heatwaves supported late Chinese demand but India's monsoon limited imports, with petcoke and Russian coal remaining firmer. Australian thermal and metallurgical coal benchmarks eased amid the broader correction. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · China's soybean cargo buys and solid new-crop export sales lift grains ahead of Wednesday's USDA WASDE report.
Chinese state firms bought at least 13 more US soybean cargoes, roughly 800,000 tons, on Wednesday. Total 2026-27 season purchases reach about 6 million tons toward the annual pledge. The buying supports US soybean futures and export commitments amid lower prices. Read →
Chinese state trading companies purchased 14-16 cargoes totaling about 1 million tons of US soybeans for October-November shipment. USDA later confirmed nearly 500,000 tons sold to China. Purchases at premiums over futures buoy new-crop soybean demand and prices. Read →
USDA weekly export sales for the week ending July 30 showed solid new-crop corn and soybean volumes despite old-crop lows. Physical shipments of corn and wheat exceeded USDA pace needs. Strong commercial buying provides support ahead of the August WASDE. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME nickel dips below $17,000/t on expectations of higher Indonesian ore supply.
LME three-month nickel fell to $16,760/t in Asian trading, down $369/t from the prior close. The drop followed reports that a major Indonesian miner's 2026 RKAB nickel ore quota could more than triple, raising prospects of larger overall supply increases beyond the expected modest revision. Indonesia accounts for the bulk of global nickel output, so any quota expansion directly pressures prices amid an already ample market. Read →
Toyota-Panasonic JV PPES, Nippon Light Metal, Fuji Springs and Panasonic Operational Excellence launched a scheme recycling aluminum scrap from EV battery cell sealing boards back into new parts. The closed-loop process aims to cut virgin ingot use by 200 tonnes per year, improving supply security and lowering costs in resource-scarce Japan. It targets rising demand for aluminum in EVs and batteries while reducing mining and refining impacts. Read →
Copper traded in a tight range near $14,000/t after six weeks of gains driven by tightening global supplies. A large flow of metal into US warehouses ahead of potential import tariffs has tightened availability elsewhere and lifted LME prices. Easing concerns over US interest-rate hikes also provided support after the metal hit its highest intraday level since late January. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Downbeat China July factory data and rising port stocks outweigh BHP Port Hedland strike, pressuring iron ore futures.
About 150 workers joined a 24-hour stoppage at BHP's Port Hedland hub on Sunday, the first major action there in 25 years. BHP ships $80 million of iron ore daily through the port, which handled 75% of Pilbara exports last year. Vessels continued loading; talks resume August 18. Read →
DCE most-active iron ore contract eased to 713.5 yuan per tonne while SGX September futures fell 0.26% to $94.75. China's July producer prices inflation hit a three-month low and consumer inflation cooled. Steel futures including rebar and HRC also weakened on thin demand. Read →
DCE iron ore contract held flat at 716 yuan per tonne; SGX September rose 0.21% to $95.25. China's July PPI eased more than expected and CPI cooled amid retreating global energy prices. Rebar eased 0.23% and HRC slipped 0.03% on the Shanghai exchange. Read →
Rebar and HRC prices weakened further in the week of August 3-7 on thin end-user demand while billet recovered slightly on replenishment buying. Imported iron ore prices remained generally weak amid the divergence in finished steel. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold slips on profit-taking after seven-week high as US jobs data and inflation loom.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,322.28/oz Monday after hitting a seven-week peak Friday on weak US July jobs data that lowered odds of a September Fed rate hike. Silver slipped 0.2% to $63.45/oz, platinum lost 0.1% to $1,742.50/oz and palladium dropped 1.1% to $1,362.97/oz. Traders await Wednesday's US CPI and Thursday's PPI for signals on rates, with Middle East tensions adding risk via oil prices. Read →
Nishant Kumar · Mint · Mon, Aug 10, 2026, 09:19 AM IST
MCX gold October futures held flat at ₹151,870 per 10 grams while silver September futures rose 0.9% to ₹233,532 per kg in early Monday trade. Volatility stemmed from mixed Middle East signals on Strait of Hormuz reopening talks and a 0.2% rise in the dollar index, with crude oil jumping 1% above $84/barrel. The moves weighed on bullion prices for non-dollar buyers. Read →
Physically backed gold ETFs recorded $3bn net inflows in July after two months of outflows, lifting AUM 1% to $530bn and holdings by 23t to 4,068t. Europe led with broad-based gains across regions, while year-to-date inflows reached $11bn or 39t. Positive flows coincided with higher gold prices and signal renewed investor interest amid central bank buying trends. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US $400M loan to Australian scandium mine drives friend-shoring push amid China export curbs.
The US Department of Defense announced a $400 million conditional loan to Sunrise Energy Metals for the Syerston Scandium Project in New South Wales. The deal creates the world's first primary scandium mine to counter China's dominance in supply and processing, which it restricted for defense uses last year. Scandium strengthens aluminum alloys for aerospace, defense, data centers and semiconductors, advancing US friend-shoring of critical minerals. Read →
China Northern Rare Earth expects 112-121% profit growth to 1.98-2.06 billion yuan; China Rare Earth Resources and Technology saw net profit rise 46.5% to 237 million yuan. Geopolitical moves including US $2B+ critical minerals investments and export curbs have lifted prices 31.7% since August 2025 via AI demand and supply constraints. Analysts note Western de-risking has not yet eroded Chinese producers' near-term earnings power. Read →
Ananta Agarwal · Nikkei Asia · Mon, Aug 10, 2026, 13:48 JST
India's 72.8 billion rupee program has drawn bidders but firms question small vertically integrated plants versus large-scale specialization needed to compete. China controls 90% of rare earth refining and recently imposed export licensing on medium and heavy rare earths. The initiative seeks to build domestic magnet capacity for EVs and electronics amid supply risks. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index climbs to 3,089 points on Aug 7, up 32 points, as capesize and panamax rates firm.
The Baltic Dry Index rose 32 points to 3,089 on Aug 7. The gain came as capesize and panamax segments strengthened on firmer demand for iron ore, coal and grain cargoes. Higher rates lift earnings for dry-bulk owners and signal tighter tonnage supply. Read →
Drewry’s World Container Index rebounded 1% to $4,297 per 40ft container for the week of Aug 6. Transpacific rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York rose 3-4% on GRIs and firm volumes. Chinese port congestion tightened capacity and supported the rebound. Read →
EU carbon allowance prices rose to a nine-day high, breaking above their recent rangebound channel as bullish sentiment continued to slowly grow, while energy markets firmed amid concerns that an Iran-Oman agreement over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz may not attract universal support. The move lifts EUA prices toward recent highs near €83/t. Higher prices tighten compliance costs for covered EU emitters and support broader carbon market sentiment. Read →
Producers entered a net short position in overall California Carbon Allowance holdings primarily through cuts in V26 exposure, while speculators picked up long Auction Clearing Price positions, the latest US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed. The shift signals changing positioning ahead of auctions and compliance deadlines. It can influence secondary market liquidity and price discovery in the California cap-and-invest program. Read →
New Jersey announced an upcoming hearing to address ratepayer relief and advance alignment with RGGI's Third Program Review. The move ties RGGI proceeds more explicitly to consumer costs while reinforcing the state's participation in the regional carbon market. It affects allowance demand and investment signals for power-sector emitters across RGGI states. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid RWA perps hit $3.6B open interest, overtaking Bitcoin as platform's top category.
Hyperliquid's RWA perpetuals on crude oil, gold and equities reached a record $3.6 billion open interest this month, surpassing Bitcoin to become the largest category. Builder-deployed HIP-3 markets now drive about half of total volume, with tokenized stocks and commodities accounting for 52% of one week's activity. Revenue to the protocol has fallen for four straight quarters even as 30-day perp volume hit nearly $178 billion. Read →
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is discussing standards for tokenized gold with major banks to enable its use as collateral in uncleared OTC derivatives. The move builds on a May joint policy paper and aims to support London's 70% share of global gold trading against Asian competition. Sixteen firms are already testing tokenized assets in the Digital Securities Sandbox. Read →
HIP-3 permissionless markets on Hyperliquid closed above $4 billion open interest for the first time. Over 60% of oil perp volume now occurs outside US market hours. The growth highlights 24/7 on-chain commodity trading demand. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Adnoc Gas commits over $8 billion to natural gas expansion and reports Q2 earnings amid Hormuz disruptions.
Japanese energy firm Eneos Holdings acquired U.S. chemical producer TPC Group in a deal valued at $1.28 billion including debt. The purchase includes petrochemical operations in Houston and terminals in Texas and Louisiana. TPC engaged multiple parties in the sale process. Read →
The U.S. government will invest $3 billion in critical minerals and battery projects to boost domestic production and national security. President Trump announced the funding at a roundtable with mining executives. The initiative aims to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US Senate passes Russia sanctions bill authorizing up to 100% tariffs on top buyers of Russian oil and gas.
Patricia Zengerle · Reuters · Fri, Aug 7, 5:13 PM ET
The US Senate voted 86-11 on Friday to pass the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, sanctioning Russian officials and authorizing the president to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top five importers of Russian crude oil or natural gas, including China and India. The measure, long delayed, now heads to the House and aims to cut revenue funding Russia's war in Ukraine by pressuring major energy buyers. It also expands sanctions on Iran. Read →
Jacob Bogage and Alexandra Alper · Reuters · Thu, Aug 6, 8:46 PM ET
President Trump issued a Section 232 proclamation imposing a 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon and derivatives used in solar panels and semiconductors, primarily targeting Chinese supply chains. The measures, effective December 4, include price floors such as $21/kg for polysilicon and support domestic US production at facilities like Hemlock and Wacker. US solar and chip manufacturers welcomed the move as bolstering national security and investment. Read →
President Trump announced $3 billion in US government-backed critical minerals and battery projects at a meeting with mining executives to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. The package includes a $1.4 billion Defense Department loan to Sila Nanotechnologies and funding for scandium and rare-earth projects. The initiative targets domestic production of materials essential for defense, EVs, and advanced tech. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
r/oil megathread and multiple high-engagement posts discuss the active US naval blockade, tanker incidents, and Iran's demands for compensation, sanctions relief, and asset releases before any reopening. Traders note potential supply disruptions for 20% of global crude trade, with oil prices showing volatility and limited upside due to competing weak demand signals. This dominates discussions as the key energy market driver in the last 48 hours. Read →
Top post with over 1,600 upvotes highlights Iran's rejection of quick reopening, linking it to broader US-Iran tensions and tanker drama in the megathread. Users debate impacts on crude exports, with some noting covert shipping and pipeline halts on Iran's Kharg Island. Matters for oil markets due to risks of prolonged higher prices or shortages. Read →
Viral post with 1,500+ upvotes shares images and video of a tanker incident or burning ship, sparking panic and speculation in the oil subreddit. Tied to the ongoing blockade and Iran-Oman negotiations. Heightens trader focus on physical supply risks and potential oil price spikes from Middle East disruptions. Read →
Commodity traders and macro accounts discuss FCA's work on tokenized gold for collateral use, alongside central bank buying and Hong Kong hub development. Seen as structural bull case beyond price action, with recent rally supported by weak US jobs data. Impacts metals markets by improving gold's usability in finance. Read →
Commodity strategist notes Bloomberg index up on metals (gold breakout) and softs like sugar/cocoa, offsetting energy weakness from Hormuz talks and Chinese demand. Traders highlight rotation away from oil amid geopolitical stalemate. Relevant for diversified commodity portfolios tracking broader market sentiment. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Suki Cooper, Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered, discusses recent moves in gold amid market volatility. The episode also features energy discussion with Ed Hirs on the US energy landscape and potential price increases. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.