Last price as of Thu, Aug 6, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Cocoa down $269 (-4.5%) on softer industrial demand and lower grindings. Dutch TTF up $2.11 (+4.0%) on Middle East supply disruption concerns. Iron Ore up $1.7 (+1.8%). Zinc (SHFE $/mt) up $51 (+1.6%) on China supply-side risks from heavy rainfall and flooding. Palladium up $19 (+1.4%) on broad precious metals gains and easing geopolitical risks. Platinum up $23 (+1.3%) on broad precious metals gains and easing geopolitical risks.
Kicker: Long platinum vs short palladium spread on supply deficits and hybrid vehicle demand, JPMorgan.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Iran said it reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed route for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a potential step toward reopening the critical waterway for energy supplies. A joint statement is under review in the final drafting stage, with negotiations described as forward-moving if third parties do not obstruct the process. Read →
Europe's natural gas stocks have fallen to a record low of just under 58% full, the lowest for the time of year since records began in 2011 and 12 percentage points behind last year's level. The U.S.-Iran war has tightened global LNG supply by removing Qatar's typical 20% share via Hormuz, raising winter price spike risks amid reduced incentives to store gas now. Read →
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose 2.5 million barrels to 407 million barrels in the week ended July 31, contrary to analyst expectations for a 1.2 million barrel drop. The build came as imports increased and refinery capacity utilization fell, leaving stocks about 6% below the five-year average. Read →
Gold futures gained more than 5% over the past two trading sessions and swung back above $4,300 a troy ounce. The rally was supported by central bank buying, a Federal Reserve rate hold, and prospects for resolution to the Iran conflict easing inflation pressures from high oil prices. Read →
The U.S. will ban exports of lithium-ion battery scrap and tungsten waste starting later this month for one year to reduce reliance on China and secure critical materials for defense and other industries. The rule requires domestic sales of certain battery scrap and tungsten waste. Read →
Phillips 66 reported Q2 adjusted profit of $9.41 per share, beating estimates of $7.44. Realized refining margin rose to $24.08/bbl from $11.25/bbl a year earlier. U.S. refiners benefited from higher overseas demand for fuel exports amid Middle East supply concerns from the Iran conflict. Read →
Gulf crude and condensate exports averaged 10.7 million bpd in July, up just 2% from June per Kpler data. Iraq drove gains with doubled exports while Saudi and UAE flows declined. Exports remained about 40% below pre-war levels with tanker traffic through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb well below normal amid ongoing threats. Read →
Brent traded near $80/bbl and WTI near $75/bbl after modest early gains. Iran announced an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, though the route would remain active only two to four months and does not signal full reopening. Traders assessed prospects for eased energy flows from the Middle East. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures hover near $2.67 amid elevated storage and mixed weather signals ahead of today's EIA report.
US natural gas futures edged up slightly in rangebound trading to around $2.688 per MMBtu. Comfortable storage levels more than 6% above the five-year average capped gains despite summer heat supporting power demand. Analysts expect a 31 Bcf build in the upcoming EIA report, extending the inventory surplus. Read →
US LNG exports held roughly flat in July at about 10.26 million tonnes, up slightly from June but below the first-half average. Europe increased its share of US cargoes while overall volumes stayed below peak levels due to maintenance. The data highlights steady but not surging export demand for US gas. Read →
Physical natural gas prices rose in New England and California for Thursday flow while Henry Hub weakened. Traders positioned ahead of the EIA storage report amid regional summer heat. Modest supply-demand improvements supported near-term prices despite broader storage pressure. Read →
Natural gas futures finished mixed Wednesday as daily balances improved modestly but traders focused on Thursday's EIA storage report. Elevated inventories continue to limit upside even as production and demand dynamics show some positive shifts. The market remains rangebound near recent lows. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF fell 3-4 EUR/MWh overnight on Aug 5-6 amid soft demand and steady storage injections; JKM eased 1% to $20.92/MMBtu.
EU natural gas benchmark rose to 54.11 EUR/MWh on August 6, up 3.26% from the prior day. Dutch TTF leads European pricing. The move reflects latest futures trading data in a market still shaped by storage refill dynamics. Read →
Platts JKM LNG benchmark fell to 20.92 USD/MMBtu on August 5, a 1.23% daily decline. The North Asian marker tracks spot LNG for Japan, South Korea and China. Price action shows modest easing in Asian demand signals versus recent highs. Read →
Uniper finalized a 20-year FOB LNG purchase agreement for 2 million tonnes per year from Canada's Ksi Lisims project. First deliveries targeted from 2032. The long-term contract bolsters German supply diversification away from traditional pipeline sources. Read →
EU gas storage reached about 57.15% of working capacity as of early August, running 11-12 percentage points below the five-year seasonal norm. Injections continued at a pace near the relaxed November 1 target of 80%. Lower levels sustain focus on LNG imports and TTF pricing. Read →
Power
What's moving · SPP issues Conservative Operations Advisory for West BAA amid hot weather and forecast uncertainty starting midnight Aug 6.
SPP declared a Conservative Operations Advisory for its West Balancing Authority Area effective midnight CT August 6 through August 11 due to potential high loads, outages, hot temperatures, and lower wind/solar output. The advisory signals stable but elevated reliability risk without requiring public conservation. It follows prior Resource Advisories and reflects seasonal summer pressures on the SPP grid. Read →
MISO scheduled its Advisory Committee meeting for August 5, 2026, as part of ongoing stakeholder engagement on markets and operations. Grid conditions remain normal with current demand around 71 GW against 108 GW forecasted peak. No scarcity alerts or price spikes reported in real-time updates. Read →
CAISO's Today's Outlook shows normal operations with no emergency alerts or scarcity events noted. Real-time demand and price data indicate stable conditions without reported spikes or data-center driven disruptions. Focus remains on routine supply-demand balancing. Read →
Coal
What's moving · India's coal-fired power hit July record 114.7 TWh on weak monsoon, lifting thermal demand despite lower imports.
India's coal-fired generation reached a record 114.7 TWh in July, up 13% year-on-year and 8.4% above the prior July high, as a weak monsoon cut hydropower by 18% and boosted cooling demand. Utilities met most of the surge with domestic supply, causing thermal coal imports to fall for a seventh straight month to an estimated 11.3 million tonnes. This sustained high burn supports seaborne thermal coal prices by drawing down stocks without spurring import buying. Read →
China's state iron ore buyer CMRG directed some steel mills to stop negotiating with Rio Tinto for September shipments amid annual contract talks. The move escalates pressure on the top iron ore producer to extract better terms for mills and expands CMRG's procurement control. While focused on iron ore, it signals tighter Chinese steel sector buying that can weigh on metallurgical coal demand and seaborne pricing. Read →
Sasol, the world's largest coal-to-liquids producer, benefits from higher fuel prices tied to the Iran conflict while shielding South African supply. CEO Simon Baloyi has ramped up coal-to-liquids output alongside its refinery. The windfall highlights coal's role in energy security but revives policy debates on its long-term future in the energy mix. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Favorable Midwest rains and strong private yield estimates pressure corn and soybean futures lower overnight.
November soybeans fell over 9 cents to near three-week lows as widespread rains hit the central and eastern Corn Belt. December corn dropped 6.25 cents overnight to $4.5925 per bushel amid private estimates of 16.16 billion bushels production at 184.8 bushels per acre yield, above USDA figures. Timely moisture supports pod-setting and yield potential, weighing on prices ahead of next week's USDA reports. Read →
USSEC's flagship Soy Connext conference opened in Chicago with record attendance exceeding 800. The event highlights how diversification beyond China is boosting U.S. soybean exports, with recent flash sales to China totaling 884,000 metric tons since late July. Normalizing trade relations and new markets are expected to drive full-year purchases toward the 25 million metric ton target. Read →
Brazil's Mato Grosso state advanced its 2025-26 winter corn harvest to 90.7% of sown area, up 11.7 points week-over-week and slightly ahead of last year. Production is projected at 57.1 million metric tons, 3% above the prior season, with yields at 128.64 bags per hectare. Cotton harvest in the state reached 13.1% of area, ahead of last year but below the five-year average. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME base metals rally on US-Iran peace talks relief as inventories draw down sharply.
LME three-month copper rose 1.16% to $14,031/t, aluminum 1.30% to $3,263.50/t and nickel 1.35% to $17,290/t on August 4. Renewed US-Iran peace hopes eased supply disruption fears from the Strait of Hormuz. The relief rally lifted the broader base metals complex after recent geopolitical pressure. Read →
US light-vehicle sales fell to a 16.3 million annualized rate in July from 16.6 million in June. The slowdown follows renewed Middle East tensions and higher fuel prices. Weaker auto demand weighs on aluminum and other base metals used in vehicle production. Read →
LME copper stocks fell 6,525 tonnes to 231,825 tonnes, lead 3,325 tonnes to 431,550 tonnes and aluminum 1,500 tonnes to 259,400 tonnes. Zinc, nickel and tin also declined. The broad drawdown tightens visible supply and supports near-term prices across the complex. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP Port Hedland strike threat and CMRG pressure on Rio Tinto contracts drive iron ore and steel markets.
Unionised workers at BHP's Port Hedland operations, the world's largest iron ore export port, will stage a 24-hour ship-loading ban on Aug 8 followed by a full work stoppage on Aug 9 after failing to agree a new enterprise deal. The action threatens up to A$120mn in lost export revenue per day and directly risks supply from BHP's 256.9Mt WA iron ore output. Port Hedland handles all of BHP's Australian shipments to China, the dominant buyer of seaborne ore. Read →
China's state iron ore buyer CMRG instructed some steel mills to halt negotiations with Rio Tinto for shipments starting September amid ongoing annual supply talks. The move escalates Beijing's campaign to extract better terms from major miners including BHP and Fortescue. It targets the $132bn seaborne iron ore market and could disrupt flows to Chinese blast furnaces. Read →
Dalian iron ore futures I2609 closed up 0.93% at 706 yuan/mt with Qingdao spot prices gaining 3-8 yuan/mt. Blast furnace operating rates held near 89% while hot metal output dipped slightly month-on-month amid maintenance. Short-term iron ore demand stays stable despite false invoice concerns tightening trade liquidity. Read →
Iron ore prices rebounded and held the $95/t level amid futures gains. The move follows recent weakness tied to Chinese steel mill losses and high port inventories. Traders note active quoting and mill spot buying as needed. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold and silver surge over 4% as soft US jobs data cools Fed rate-hike bets and Hormuz deal hopes ease oil fears.
Kitco NewsWire · Kitco News · Wed, Aug 5, 9:43 PM ET
Spot gold rose to near $4,244/oz and silver to $61.88/oz, both up over 4% after July ADP private payrolls came in at just 44,000 jobs versus 75,000 expected. Softer labor data, weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields reduced September Fed hike odds while Hormuz shipping deal optimism capped oil-driven inflation fears. Read →
Neils Christensen · Kitco News · Wed, Aug 5, 8:16 AM ET
Spot gold climbed above $4,200/oz as ADP reported 44,000 private-sector jobs added in July, below the 68,000 consensus. The miss eased immediate Fed tightening pressure even as wage growth stayed elevated at 4.4% for job stayers. Read →
Neils Christensen · Kitco News · Wed, Aug 5, 3:39 PM ET
Heather White, CEO of Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining, said investors now recognize silver's critical role in AI data centers, semiconductors and power infrastructure after the company's June NYSE IPO. She highlighted structural supply deficits and the firm's plan to restart Idaho's Sunshine Mine as America's second-largest pure-play silver producer by late 2028. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US bans exports of battery black mass and tungsten scrap for one year to secure domestic critical minerals supply.
The US government announced a year-long ban on exports of scrap tungsten and black mass from recycled batteries. The policy supports friend-shoring and domestic processing of critical minerals amid efforts to secure supply chains. Read →
The Democratic Republic of Congo issued a new mining order banning exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. A new tax framework with a 55% valuation coefficient on by-products takes effect in three months, tightening supply for battery minerals. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers slash Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb traffic, spiking VLCC rates amid reopening confusion.
Houthis claimed missile strikes on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea off Yanbu and Gulf of Aden. Kpler data showed Strait of Hormuz transits fell to two vessels from eight the prior day, and Bab el-Mandeb commodity crossings dropped to one from 20. The reduced chokepoint flows tighten tanker supply and support elevated VLCC earnings. Read →
Baltic West Africa-China VLCC TCE index climbed to $188,957 per day, up 92% week-on-week to the highest since March 10. US Gulf-China and Oman-China indexes also rose sharply as owners reposition tonnage toward the Middle East on reopening expectations. The stop-start traffic pattern creates fleet inefficiency that lifts spot rates outside the strait. Read →
The Baltic Dry Index rose 127 points or 4.3% to 3,063, its highest since June 3. Capesize index surged 316 points or 6.6% to 5,094 with daily earnings up $2,867 to $42,698, while panamax gained 49 points to 2,236. Iron ore futures provided support amid a looming BHP strike at Port Hedland. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs trade near €81/t as NY finalizes RGGI rule updates and EPA grants SREs releasing 160M RINs.
New York finalized updates to its RGGI regulations to align with the cap-and-trade scheme’s Third Program Review. The changes follow the program review’s tighter caps and improved cost-containment mechanisms. Alignment supports market stability for RGGI allowances amid Virginia’s planned rejoining. Read →
The EPA granted one full and two partial small refinery exemptions under the RFS for compliance years 2023-2024. The decisions exempt 160 million RINs from retirement. Exemptions increase available supply for obligated parties and reduce near-term demand pressure on RIN prices. Read →
European Union Allowance futures closed at €81.09 per tonne on August 5, down 0.31% from the prior session. Prices remain above €80/t following July’s reform proposals that eased the linear reduction factor. The move reflects thin summer trading with limited directional drivers. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Solana tokenized gold market cap surges 689% YoY as physical gold tops $5,000/oz.
Solana’s tokenized gold market cap grew 689% since August 2025, outpacing all other chains with average quarterly growth of 213.2% in the first half of 2026. Protocols Oro Finance, Matrixdock, and Streamex drive the expansion, offering yield-bearing tokens backed by physical gold amid prices above $5,000 per ounce. The tokenized gold sector overall nears $4.8-6 billion in market cap with $90.7 billion in Q1 trading volume. Read →
Hyperliquid enables continuous on-chain perpetual futures trading in oil, gold, and equity indices even when traditional venues are closed overnight or on weekends. Bloomberg references its order book for weekend oil pricing. The platform has evolved from crypto derivatives into a key venue for real-time commodity price discovery. Read →
The CFTC extended the public comment period on proposed rules for extending standard futures contracts to 24/7 trading and on perpetual contracts referencing physically delivered commodities. This follows earlier no-action relief for digital commodity perpetual futures and aligns with broader efforts on tokenized collateral in derivatives markets. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Oil and gas producers lift earnings and outlooks as higher prices from Middle East tensions boost Q2 results and 2026 guidance.
Harbour Energy raised its 2026 free cash flow outlook to $1.8 billion from $1.4 billion and narrowed production guidance upward to 490,000-500,000 boepd after record first-half output above 500,000 boepd. The UK North Sea producer cited higher oil and European natural gas prices and will start returning at least $800 million to shareholders with a $250 million buyback. Shares rose nearly 7%. Read →
Occidental Petroleum posted adjusted profit of $2.40 per share for Q2, its highest since Q3 2022 and above estimates of $1.84, on higher oil prices and 2.4% production growth to 1.43 million boepd. Realized oil prices averaged $96.78 per barrel versus $63.76 a year earlier amid Middle East supply disruptions. Larger peers Chevron and ExxonMobil also reported strong results. Read →
Maurel & Prom reported first-half net income of $191 million, up 78%, on higher crude prices with working-interest production averaging 37,890 boepd. The French producer raised its dividend 15% and expects Venezuela crude exports to normalize in H2 2026. It separately agreed to buy Gran Tierra Energy's Colombia and Ecuador assets for $1.33 billion. Read →
Gran Tierra Energy agreed to sell its Colombia and Ecuador oil operations, which produced about 29,000 bpd in H1 2026, to Maurel & Prom for $1.33 billion including debt. The deal expands Maurel & Prom's presence in Colombia and marks its entry into Ecuador. Gran Tierra expects net cash proceeds of about $315 million after adjustments. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump readies 15% polysilicon tariffs and price floors as US refunds $100B in struck-down tariffs and bans used critical mineral exports.
The Trump administration will announce as soon as Thursday a 15% tariff plus minimum import prices on polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules. The hybrid system targets Chinese dominance in solar panels and semiconductors under a Section 232 national security probe. It aims to shield US factories and support domestic chip and solar supply chains. Read →
US Customs completed refunds of about $100 billion, more than half of $166 billion collected before the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs in February. The disbursements went to corporate importers via the Court of International Trade process. Refunds highlight ongoing tariff policy turbulence under new authorities. Read →
President Trump is preparing tariffs and minimum prices on imported polysilicon to boost domestic output for semiconductors and solar panels. Action could come Thursday via people familiar with the plans. It counters Chinese supply concentration in critical inputs for AI and energy sectors. Read →
The US Treasury removed counter-terrorism sanctions from Iraq's Fly Baghdad Airlines, Iraq Express and two Boeing 737 aircraft imposed in 2024 over IRGC Quds Force links. The move followed demonstrated changes in the airline's behavior. Officials stressed it does not signal broader policy shifts toward Iran. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders on X and r/oil are buzzing over reports of imminent Iran-Oman negotiations for a Hormuz shipping deal, possibly with 5-7% fees. Oil prices dipped slightly on the news amid hopes of eased supply risks, but skepticism remains high about durability and US involvement. Read →
Discussions highlight alleged cash sale of 300 tonnes of Niger uranium to Romanian nuclear firm, with claims of Russian involvement and prior blocked Iran/Russia deals. Commodity watchers flag transparency issues and potential supply chain impacts for uranium markets. Read →
Traders note strong follow-through in gold, silver, palladium and mining stocks after recent breakouts. Discussions focus on FOMO into hard assets, technical support levels, and long-term commodity rebalancing amid AI and macro uncertainty. Read →
r/oil threads dissect recent EIA data showing tight US inventories and ongoing Hormuz blockade effects, with traders debating draw rates, potential short squeezes, and geopolitical risks to global crude flows. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Paul Sankey analyzes the Middle East conflict's impact on oil flows through Hormuz, noting Saudi and UAE export resilience via bypasses and lightering while product markets remain extremely tight with elevated gasoline and jet fuel prices. He highlights geopolitical pressures for a negotiated settlement, US military supply constraints, and seasonal demand dynamics ahead of potential SPR drawdown end. Watch/Listen →
Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC, discusses how specifics of any U.S.-Iran agreement on Hormuz will shape oil price trajectories amid ongoing negotiations. She examines energy market state, geopolitical risks, and implications for supply and prices in the current environment. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.