Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Tuesday, August 4, 2026 · 45 stories
▶ The 2-minute market brief · 1.25x
Markets at a glance
Last price as of Tue, Aug 4, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Dutch TTF up $2.55 (+4.4%) on Europe entering storage season with levels at 18-year low for the date amid stalled refill and LNG supply risks.
Crude up $1.84 (+2.5%) on Iran denying ongoing secret US talks. Also note: Six Saudi VLCCs are now rerouting around Africa after Houthi threats. The empty Saudi-flagged supertankers diverted in the Gulf of Aden toward southern Africa instead of Bab el-Mandeb after Houthi threats. The reroute adds at least 25 sailing days. Lengthening oil supply chains adding an another timing wrinkle to the return to a new normal. “Shuttling” with less expensive tankers, a phenomenon that became used through Hormuz, now likely to become the new norm in the Red Sea.
Platinum up $40 (+2.5%) on precious metals tracking easing Middle East tensions.
Palladium up $27 (+2.1%) on precious metals tracking easing Middle East tensions.
Silver up $1.03 (+1.8%) on precious metals tracking easing Middle East tensions.
Coffee up $4.3 (+1.4%).
Kicker: Buy Dec26 TTF calendar spread vs prompt on winter storage refill risks, Macquarie.
Crude up $1.84 (+2.5%) on Iran denying ongoing secret US talks. Also note: Six Saudi VLCCs are now rerouting around Africa after Houthi threats. The empty Saudi-flagged supertankers diverted in the Gulf of Aden toward southern Africa instead of Bab el-Mandeb after Houthi threats. The reroute adds at least 25 sailing days. Lengthening oil supply chains adding an another timing wrinkle to the return to a new normal. “Shuttling” with less expensive tankers, a phenomenon that became used through Hormuz, now likely to become the new norm in the Red Sea.
Platinum up $40 (+2.5%) on precious metals tracking easing Middle East tensions.
Palladium up $27 (+2.1%) on precious metals tracking easing Middle East tensions.
Silver up $1.03 (+1.8%) on precious metals tracking easing Middle East tensions.
Coffee up $4.3 (+1.4%).
Kicker: Buy Dec26 TTF calendar spread vs prompt on winter storage refill risks, Macquarie.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
Aramco net profit surges 44% to $32.69B on war-driven oil prices
Reuters · Tue, Aug 4
Saudi Aramco reported second-quarter net profit of $32.69 billion, up 44% from $22.67 billion a year earlier, as higher crude, refined products and chemicals prices offset rerouting around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Read →
BP Q2 profit more than doubles to $5.73B on energy prices
Reuters · Tue, Aug 4
BP posted underlying replacement cost profit of $5.73 billion for the second quarter, more than double the $2.35 billion a year earlier and above forecasts, driven by higher energy prices, trading gains and refining margins amid Middle East volatility. Read →
Copper nears $14,000/ton on US inflows, tariff watch
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Tue, Aug 4
Copper futures on the LME rose toward the highest in two months near $14,000 a ton as more than 200,000 tons arrived at US ports in July, the largest monthly volume on record, tightening availability elsewhere ahead of an expected US import tariff decision. Read →
Chinese gold ETFs see 14-day inflow streak, floor at $4,000
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Tue, Aug 4
Chinese institutional investors drove 14 consecutive days of inflows into gold-backed ETFs through Monday, the longest streak since March, helping stabilize prices above the key $4,000-an-ounce threshold after earlier war-related outflows. Read →
Russia adds shadow LNG tankers ahead of EU sanctions
Financial Times · Tue, Aug 4
Russia is expanding its shadow fleet of LNG carriers with at least eight second-hand tankers acquired to sustain exports of liquefied natural gas when tighter EU sanctions take effect next year. Read →
Most clicked yesterday
In this issue
Oil 4US Natural Gas 4Global Nat Gas & LNG 1Power 3Agriculture 4Base Metals 4Iron Ore & Steel 3Precious Metals 2Rare Earths & Critical Minerals 3Shipping & Freight 3Environment 3Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities 3Corporate & Deals 4Regulation & Government 4Social buzz 3Watch & Listen 2Prediction Markets
Markets News
Oil
What's moving · Oil rebounds 1% after 7% Brent selloff on uncertain US-Iran talks and Hormuz risks.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 82.18 | +2.3% +1.84 |
+43.1% | +26.1% | +20.6% |
| Brent | 85.99 | +2.7% +2.22 |
+41.3% | +27.1% | +22.2% |
| RBOB Gasoline | 2.989 | +0.8% +0.023 |
+60.6% | +30.9% | +21.7% |
| Heating Oil | 3.880 | +0.1% +0.002 |
+82.9% | +72.4% | +87.0% |
| NY RBOB Crk $/bbl |
43.37 | -2.0% -0.89 |
+108.8% +22.60 |
+41.1% +12.63 |
+23.9% +8.36 |
| NY HO Crk $/bbl |
80.76 | -2.1% -1.74 |
+155.2% +49.11 |
+175.2% +51.41 |
+325.9% +61.80 |
| NY 321 Crack $/bbl |
55.84 | -2.1% -1.17 |
+128.8% +31.44 |
+84.4% +25.56 |
+88.2% +26.17 |
Brent rises 1.2% to $84.81 after 7% drop on Iran talks uncertainty
Reuters · Tue, Aug 4, 1:02 AM ET
Front-month Brent futures rose $1.04 to $84.81 a barrel while WTI added 30 cents to $80.64 after Monday's sharp decline. Gains followed mixed signals on US-Iran diplomacy, with Trump claiming talks underway and Iran denying them, plus little change in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb shipping. Goldman Sachs sees Brent in an $80-90 range until a deal or major escalation. Read →
Traders to exit Murban futures after ADNOC switches to Platts Dubai
Reuters · Tue, Aug 4, 4:46 AM ET
ADNOC will price all Abu Dhabi grades against prompt-month Platts Dubai from November 1 instead of Murban futures on IFAD. Traders plan to unwind Murban positions and shift hedging to Dubai or Brent derivatives. The change follows Iran war disruptions that caused hedging losses and aligns OSPs more closely with loading month. Read →
Asia July crude imports hit post-war high but 15% below pre-conflict
Clyde Russell · Reuters · Tue, Aug 4, 5:35 AM ET
Asia crude imports reached 22.82 million bpd in July, the highest since the Iran war began but 15% below the 26.89 million bpd pre-conflict average. Refined fuel imports also rose yet remained 18.5% lower than before February. Recovery partly reflects a brief mid-June ceasefire allowing stranded tankers to exit Hormuz, with flows likely to weaken again after August. Read →
Brazil June oil output hits record 4.5 million bpd amid Middle East war
Bloomberg · Mon, Aug 3, 5 PM ET
Brazilian crude production rose 19% year-on-year to a record 4.5 million bpd in June, with total oil and gas output at 5.8 million boe/d. The increase helps offset Middle East supply shortfalls from the Iran conflict and supports Asian buyers seeking alternatives to Hormuz-dependent cargoes. Non-OPEC supply growth cushions the global market during the disruption. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures settle modestly higher at $2.78/MMBtu on Monday as heat builds and LNG feedgas rises.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | 2.752 | -1.0% -0.029 |
-25.3% | -8.6% | -33.8% |
Natgas futures gain modestly on heat, power demand outlook.
Anthony Harrup · Wall Street Journal · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
NYMEX September natural gas settled up 1.2% at $2.781/MMBtu. Traders cited intensifying Texas heat and stronger power-sector demand into next week. Market remains focused on ample storage and softer summer LNG feedgas. Read →
ONEOK raises 2026 profit guidance on record NGL volumes.
Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
ONEOK lifted its 2026 net income guidance to $3.41-3.79 billion. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 7% to $2.12 billion on 7% higher NGL raw feed throughput, including 15% growth in the Gulf Coast/Permian region. Pipeline operator benefits from Permian oil and gas output plus LNG export demand. Read →
Futures rise on western heat; storage supportive but supplies ample.
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
September futures settled modestly higher Monday amid expanding western US heat and last week’s below-expectation storage injection. Abundant supplies and comfortable inventories limited gains. NGI projects next EIA report at +30 Bcf injection for week ended July 31. Read →
Physical prices rally on Northeast, Appalachia power demand.
Jodi Shafto · Natural Gas Intelligence · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Physical natural gas prices rallied Monday for Tuesday flow with sharp gains across the Northeast, Appalachia and East Coast pipelines. Midwest markets strengthened; Texas prices gained from historically strong electricity demand. Gains offset broader market weakness. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises 2% to €58.63/MWh as EU storage at record-low 57% for August 1 forces faster injections amid easing Hormuz tensions.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh | 60.06 | +4.4% +2.55 |
+113.3% | +74.6% | +42.1% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu | 20.27 | +4.4% +0.86 |
+113.3% | +74.6% | +42.1% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu | 21.45 | +0.4% +0.08 |
+123.3% | +78.9% | +40.0% |
EU gas storage at record low 57.11% for Aug 1
Social media / Energy community reports · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
EU aggregate gas storage reached 57.11% full on the August 1 gas day, the lowest level ever recorded for that calendar date and below the 2021 prior low of 57.28%. The deficit reflects slower-than-needed injections this summer. It tightens the supply outlook for winter and supports elevated TTF pricing into the refill season. Read →
Power
What's moving · Texas Gov. Abbott halts new data center grid connections pending ERCOT/PUCT audit of 474 GW queue (90% data centers).
Abbott orders ERCOT/PUCT audit before any new data center grid connections.
Office of the Texas Governor · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to audit all data centers advancing through the interconnection queue before any projects move forward. The audit covers financing/tax incentives, power and water usage, on-site generation, community impacts, and ownership details. ERCOT faces over 474 GW of connection requests, more than five times record peak demand, with about 90% from data centers; non-compliant projects will be denied grid access. Read →
Abbott pauses new Texas data centers pending ERCOT/PUCT power and water audit.
Michael Minasi · Houston Public Media · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Gov. Greg Abbott directed ERCOT and the PUCT to pause data center grid connections until a comprehensive audit of energy and water usage is completed. The directive requires details on projected consumption, self-generation, water reuse or efficient cooling, tax incentives, community mitigation, and ownership. ERCOT has postponed its Batch Zero transmission planning study in response. Read →
PJM files FERC plan for fall backstop auction to fill 6.8 GW capacity shortfall
Ethan Howland · Utility Dive · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
PJM Interconnection filed a proposal at FERC for a one-time reliability backstop auction from Sept. 30 to Oct. 21 to procure capacity filling a 6.8 GW shortfall in its last base auction. The shortfall stems largely from surging data center demand forecasts that could reach 70 GW by 2038; the plan includes bilateral contracting options between data centers and suppliers, with costs allocated to zones and a proposed $555/MW-day price cap. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · China buys 488,000 MT soybeans for 2026-27 marketing year, boosting new-crop export demand.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 474 | +0.3% +2 |
+7.7% | +24.2% | -13.1% |
| Wheat | 656 | +0.7% +5 |
+29.3% | +29.0% | -8.6% |
| Soybeans | 1,189 | -0.3% -3 |
+15.4% | +22.7% | -15.3% |
| Sugar | 15.12 | +0.7% +0.11 |
+0.7% | -6.0% | -15.7% |
| Coffee | 309.0 | +1.4% +4.3 |
-11.4% | +3.4% | +75.9% |
| Cocoa | 6,112 | +0.8% +46 |
+0.8% | -26.9% | +155.4% |
| Cotton | 81.95 | +0.2% +0.16 |
+27.5% | +24.9% | -9.7% |
China, unknown destinations buy 624k MT soybeans for 2026-27.
USDA FAS · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Private exporters reported 488,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China and 136,150 MT to unknown destinations for the 2026-27 marketing year beginning September 1. The flash sales signal renewed Chinese buying interest ahead of the new crop season. Strong export commitments support soybean prices by tightening available supply for the upcoming marketing year. Read →
China buys 17.9M bushels soybeans; unknown takes 5M bushels.
Farm Progress staff · Farm Progress · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Private exporters announced 17.9 million bushels of soybeans to China and 5.0 million bushels to unknown destinations for 2026-27 delivery. The large new-crop sales add to prior commitments and underscore export demand strength. Markets watch for follow-through buying that could lift futures. Read →
Cocoa surges 10% to $5,939 per ton on August 3.
Trading Economics · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Cocoa prices jumped 10.04% to 5,939 USD per metric ton. The sharp single-day gain reflects short-term market dynamics in the softs complex. Elevated volatility keeps cocoa in focus alongside grains and oilseeds. Read →
USDA releases weekly US crop progress report.
X post from market intelligence account · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
The latest USDA Crop Progress report tracks corn, soybean, wheat and other crop conditions and development stages across major states. Ratings and progress data inform yield expectations heading into peak summer weather. Traders monitor any shifts in good-to-excellent percentages for price signals. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME copper rose to $13,870/t as supply constraints tighten amid China scrap shortages.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper NY $/lb |
6.62 | +1.2% +0.08 |
+17.6% | +51.7% | +52.9% |
| Copper (SHFE $/mt) | 13,967 | +0.6% +88 |
+10.0% | +45.2% | +42.7% |
| Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) | 3,109 | +0.8% +23 |
+4.5% | +23.3% | +13.9% |
| Zinc (SHFE $/mt) | 3,266 | -0.6% -20 |
+8.7% | +19.1% | +5.7% |
| Nickel (SHFE $/mt) | 17,287 | +1.2% +209 |
+2.1% | +17.3% | -13.7% |
| Lead (SHFE $/mt) | 2,003 | -0.6% -11 |
-9.1% | -2.0% | -8.7% |
| Tin (SHFE $/mt) | 56,072 | +0.4% +233 |
+33.5% | +72.8% | +72.9% |
Jet engines lift nickel and titanium alloy demand.
Samuel Wood · Argus · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Aircraft engine OEMs ramped widebody and narrowbody deliveries in H1 2026, boosting nickel superalloy and premium titanium needs. New melting and forging capacity expansions will sustain higher nickel demand through 2030. Read →
US removes 10% tariff on aluminum scrap imports.
Alex Nicoll · Argus · Thu, Jul 24, 2026
USTR carved out aluminum scrap from new Section 301 tariffs effective Aug 1 to avoid disrupting US smelter feedstock supply. The exemption prevents higher costs and production cuts for downstream aluminum users. Read →
Kaiser sees accelerating aluminum demand recovery.
Alex Nicoll · Argus · Thu, Jul 24, 2026
Kaiser Aluminum reported 6% higher Q2 shipments, driven by aerospace, packaging and engineering restocking plus onshoring. The firm raised its full-year outlook and expects the trend to continue into 2027. Read →
Copper hits two-month high on China supply squeeze.
Trading Economics · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
Copper futures climbed to $6.59/lb on tight concentrate and scrap supply in China, pushing treatment charges higher. Long-term support comes from clean energy and AI data center demand despite softer July manufacturing data. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures hit 13-month lows near $93/t on SGX amid soft China steel demand and no stimulus.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62% DCE $/dmt |
91.7 | +0.2% +0.2 |
-8.9% | -4.9% | -35.8% |
| Rebar SHFE $/mt |
380 | +0.4% +2 |
-3.6% | -3.8% | -49.5% |
| HRC SHFE $/mt |
415 | +0.2% +1 |
+0.6% | -1.0% | -48.7% |
Iron ore dips to 13-month low near $93/t SGX.
Bloomberg · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
SGX iron ore futures fell to $92.85/t, the lowest since late June 2025, before recovering little changed. Seasonally weaker Chinese demand and narrowing steel mill margins weighed on prices. Lack of major new stimulus from Beijing hurt sentiment further. Read →
Odisha warns miners, steelmakers on grade manipulation.
Neha Arora and Jatindra Dash · Reuters · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
Odisha inspected sites and found consistent grade manipulation by lessees including JSW, Tata Steel, SAIL and others, causing revenue loss. Stricter checks already limit lower-grade ore offers in the merchant market. Disruption in India's top iron ore state risks tightening domestic supply for its steel sector. Read →
BHP faces weekend strike at Port Hedland iron ore hub.
Reuters · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
Unions will impose 24-hour loading bans on Aug 8-9 at BHP's Port Hedland, the world's largest iron ore export hub, despite progress in talks. The action could hold up 16 shipments; BHP says it has contingency plans. Next meeting set for Aug 18, same day as BHP's annual results. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Geopolitics easing and yen intervention weaken dollar while Bank of Korea launches domestic gold purchases.
| Market | Last | 1D | YTD | 1Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,071 | +0.9% +37 |
-5.1% | +21.4% | +126.8% |
| Silver | 58.89 | +1.8% +1.03 |
-16.0% | +56.2% | +131.4% |
| Platinum | 1,666 | +2.5% +40 |
-18.1% | +26.5% | +63.3% |
| Palladium | 1,284 | +2.1% +27 |
-21.2% | +7.5% | -51.6% |
Bank of Korea to buy gold from local producers for first time in 13 years.
Heejin Kim · Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 12:23 PM ET
The Bank of Korea established a framework to purchase gold from domestic producers at international market prices via KRX and KSD systems. This marks its first domestic gold buys in 13 years and aims to diversify reserves and boost holdings. The move adds fresh central-bank demand to the physical market. Read →
Gold nudges 0.2% higher Tuesday amid mixed Iran signals and jobs data watch.
Ashitha Shivaprasad · Reuters · Tue, Aug 4, 1:05 AM ET
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,062.41/oz Tuesday while silver jumped 1.2%, platinum 0.9% and palladium 0.9%. Traders weigh uncertain U.S.-Iran talks and upcoming U.S. jobs data for Fed rate clues. Weaker jobs could ease rate-hike odds and support metals. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Indonesia clarifies rare earth export rules easing nickel and tin shipments while banning pure REE products.
Indonesia eases REE export rules for nickel tin shipments.
Jakarta Globe · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Indonesia clarified that its rare earth export ban applies only to pure rare earth products, not trace amounts in derivatives like nickel and tin. This resolves a regulatory gap that had delayed over 100 vessels and withheld surveyor reports. The move resumes shipments of key minerals while prioritizing domestic REE use, reducing compliance uncertainty for exporters. Read →
Indonesia maps REE content in mineral exports amid review.
Antara News · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
Indonesia is mapping rare earth elements in mineral exports as part of ongoing regulatory review. Officials confirmed resumption of exports containing trace REE byproducts after clarifying the ban targets standalone products only. Permanent rules on thresholds and verification remain under development. Read →
Rare earths weapon loses force as world diversifies.
David Fickling · Bloomberg · Sun, Aug 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Every China export control tightening prompts faster global development of alternative rare earth sources and processing. Nearly one-third of production now occurs outside China, with new ionic-clay deposits and separation plants emerging on multiple continents. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium face eroding Chinese leverage as diversification accelerates. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index surges 4% to 2,843 on Capesize strength amid firm iron ore and coal demand.
Urals tanker rates to India jump 50% on Black Sea risks.
Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 4:37 PM ET
Suezmax rates from Novorossiysk to India rose to $15M per voyage from $10M mid-July; Aframax from Primorsk hit $13M from $8-9M. Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea tankers deter owners, tightening tonnage for August Russian exports to Asia and cutting netbacks by $5/bbl. Read →
Six Saudi VLCCs reroute around Africa after Houthi threats.
Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 1:27 PM ET
Empty Saudi-flagged supertankers diverted in the Gulf of Aden toward southern Africa instead of Bab el-Mandeb after Houthi threats. The reroute adds at least 25 sailing days; Bahri operates the vessels amid widened insurance risk zones. Read →
Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb traffic steady amid US-Iran talks.
Reuters · Tue, Aug 4, 2:14 AM ET
Kpler data showed 20 vessels through Bab el-Mandeb and six through Hormuz on Monday, little changed from prior day. All Hormuz transits used the Iranian route; Saudi tanker diversions noted amid ambiguous U.S.-Iran talks. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs drop to two-week low on holiday selling as reform uncertainty lingers.
EUAs hit two-week low amid holiday selling.
Carbon Pulse · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
EU carbon allowance prices fell below their recent range Monday to a two-week low on steady selling. Trading thinned ahead of summer holidays while power-sector fundamentals stayed supportive for bulls. The move comes amid ongoing uncertainty over EU ETS reform proposals. Read →
RGGI allowances fall on extra supply and affordability worries.
Carbon Pulse · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
RGGI allowance futures declined further last week after additional supply entered next month’s Q3 auction. Traders cited uncertainty over potential new affordability measures as the key driver. The drop extends recent weakness in the Northeast U.S. power-sector carbon market. Read →
Argus rolls out SAF emissions reduction indexes.
Argus Media · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Argus Media introduced sustainable aviation fuel emissions reduction indexes on August 3. The tools let airlines and traders compare SAF economics directly against compliance and voluntary carbon obligations. Launch targets better transparency in aviation decarbonization markets. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · BlackRock launches tokenized money-market funds on Ethereum and Solana for stablecoin reserves, while crude oil falls on Hormuz de-escalation hopes.
BlackRock launches tokenized money-market funds on Ethereum, Solana
Ian Allison · CoinDesk · Mon, Aug 3, 9:15 AM ET
BlackRock launched BSTBL tokenized shares of an existing Treasury-based liquidity fund on Ethereum and BRSRV, a new stablecoin-reserve vehicle with daily reinvestment across blockchains including Solana. Both target eligibility as reserve assets under the GENIUS Act for permitted stablecoin issuers, with Securitize as transfer agent. The move expands BlackRock’s tokenized cash platform to support growing stablecoin infrastructure and on-chain collateral demand. Read →
BlackRock rolls out tokenized funds on Solana and Ethereum
Jason Nelson · Decrypt · Mon, Aug 3, 3:17 PM ET
BlackRock introduced BRSRV on Solana and Ethereum plus tokenized BSTBL shares, both backed by cash, short-term Treasuries, and repos with a $3 million minimum and permissioned access. The products aim to qualify as GENIUS Act-eligible reserves, extending BlackRock’s BUIDL push into stablecoin reserve management. This deepens institutional tokenization for yield-bearing, blockchain-native cash equivalents. Read →
Crude oil falls on Hormuz de-escalation hopes
Mansfield Energy · Mon, Aug 3
Prompt WTI futures dropped about $5 per barrel amid hopes President Trump would call off strikes on Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, following a prior weekly decline of similar size. Shipping traffic through the strait eased and talks resumed, pressuring prices lower. On-chain commodity perps on platforms like Hyperliquid continue to offer 24/7 exposure to the volatile energy complex. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Williams $5.5B Momentum Midstream acquisition and raised 2026 EBITDA guidance drive natural gas midstream consolidation amid LNG demand growth.
Williams buys Momentum Midstream for up to $5.5B, lifts EBITDA view
Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Williams Companies agreed to acquire Momentum Midstream for up to $5.5 billion, adding over 4,000 miles of Haynesville pipelines and 6 Bcf/d gathering capacity. The deal raises its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.3-8.5 billion and includes expansion projects. It positions Williams to capture rising Gulf Coast LNG and power demand with fee-based contracts. Read →
Chevron gives employees bonus after record Q2 earnings
Sheila Dang · Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Chevron will pay most employees a bonus equal to half a month's base pay after its record quarterly profit, driven by high oil prices from the Iran conflict and Hess deal synergies. CEO Mike Wirth credited staff for cost cuts and safe operations. The move comes as President Trump criticizes oil companies for high profits and urges lower gasoline prices. Read →
Diamondback beats estimates, raises 2026 output view
Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
Diamondback Energy posted Q2 adjusted EPS of $6.48, beating estimates, and raised its 2026 production forecast above 1 million boepd from 972,000. Elevated oil prices from Middle East supply issues boosted results. The company also doubled its share buyback authorization to $16 billion. Read →
SuKarne, Mexico's top meat exporter, explores $2B+ sale
Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
The owner of SuKarne is exploring a sale that could value the company above $2 billion, working with Rabobank and BBVA. The firm accounts for nearly 75% of Mexico's meat exports and spans cattle feeding, processing and distribution across proteins. No deal is assured as the process remains private. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US copper imports hit record July surge as traders rush ahead of pending Trump refined-metal tariffs.
US copper imports surge to record July levels ahead of Trump tariff decision.
Mining.com / Bloomberg News · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
More than 200,000 metric tons of copper arrived in the US in July, the largest monthly inflow in at least 12 years per IHS Markit data. Traders are stockpiling ahead of a potential decision on tariffs for refined copper imports, adding to already record US inventories exceeding 740,000 tons on Comex and LME plus over 1 million tons estimated total. The move supports strategic stockpiling for power grids, EVs, AI and defense while Comex trades at a premium to LME. Read →
25 states sue Trump administration over new forced-labor tariffs on 60 partners.
CNBC · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
A coalition of 25 mostly Democratic-led states filed suit in the US Court of International Trade Monday challenging 10-12.5% Section 301 tariffs on imports from 60 trading partners. The states call the forced-labor justification a pretext to replace earlier tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court. They seek to block the duties covering 99% of US imports and order refunds for importers. Read →
US states accuse Trump of sham probe to justify new tariffs.
Financial Times · Tue, Aug 4, 2026
Twenty-five states sued the Trump administration, alleging misuse of Section 301 investigations into forced-labor import bans to recreate broad tariffs previously invalidated by courts. The action targets duties imposed last month on goods from 60 economies representing nearly all US imports. Plaintiffs argue the measures exceed legal authority and seek court intervention. Read →
States sue Trump over latest attempt to sustain global tariffs.
Bloomberg · Mon, Aug 3, 2026
A group of US states sued the administration Monday in the Court of International Trade, accusing officials of unlawfully using Section 301 to replace earlier tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court or expired. The challenge targets the new forced-labor duties on 60 economies. Similar suits by small businesses are also pending over the tariff regime. Read →
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Trump Iran talks drive oil gold swings
X / @VibeTrader_ · Tue, Aug 4
Traders discuss US-Iran talks with mixed signals from Trump and Tehran causing swings in oil, gold, and DXY. Markets react to possible deal or strikes with volatility returning to energy and metals. Read →
Trump demands lower gas prices from majors
X / @zerohedge · Mon, Aug 3
Traders note Trump's call for oil companies including Chevron to cut prices amid geopolitical tensions. Discussions focus on potential policy pressure on energy sector and crude markets. Read →
Ukraine hits Syzran refinery adding oil risk
X / @_deepvalue_ · Tue, Aug 4
Traders highlight Ukrainian strike on major Russian refinery as fresh supply disruption risk. WTI crude rises nearly 2% on top of existing geopolitical tensions in energy markets. Read →
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
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Sankey on oil, Iran deal hopes, earnings
Paul Sankey on CNBC Squawk on the Street · Mon, Aug 3
Paul Sankey, president of Sankey Research, discusses oil price movements amid Trump calling off strikes on Iran and developments in energy markets and company earnings. Watch/Listen →
Atkinson: OPEC+ hike mainly symbolic
Former IEA Head of Oil Neil Atkinson analyzes the OPEC+ September production hike agreement, calling it largely symbolic, and highlights Saudi Arabia's challenges from Hormuz disruptions and Houthi threats. Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31
59%
+3pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed rate hike in 2026
68%
-9pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Any Cat 4+ hurricane US landfall before 2027
27%
+5pp w/w
Any Cat 5 hurricane US landfall before 2027
15%
+4pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
WHO declares new pandemic in 2026
7%
-2pp w/w
Source: Polymarket
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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